Turkey is openly supporting Ukraine.

The Phantom of War

In recent weeks, there have been repeated shellings by Ukrainian forces targeting centers in the eastern separatist region. For the past 7 years, such military operations have always been maintained with low intensity.

Russia denies military backing to the separatists but has expressed concern about Ukraine’s new moves, and has said it will respond to any risks to national security.

Commenting on Russia-Ukraine tensions over the past few days, Sputnik writer Finian Cunningham acknowledged, Russia was right to be alarmed about the current situation.

The outbreak of violence in eastern Ukraine comes with the prospect that Turkey’s supply of strike drones to Kiev authorities will further explode the conflict.

Observers fear the U.S.-led NATO military alliance and Russia could be embroiled in a larger-scale war.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy was greeted in Istanbul by Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Here, Mr. Erdogan pledged to support Ukraine’s “territorial integrity.”

Turkey’s public declaration of support for Ukraine comes with an agreement to increase the supply of warships and drones to kiev authorities.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has voiced alarm over the move by NATO powers, including Turkey, which is pushing kiev’s militarised status.

Turkey’s intervention is reminiscent of last year’s war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was Turkey’s supply of drones and military equipment that gave Azerbaijan the decisive advantage in the war.

The conflict on Russia’s southern border is also a cause for Moscow’s sense of national security to be alarming. After timely intervention with the right intermediary agreement, the 4-month war was finally extinguished.

Cunningham said it looked like President Erdogan of Turkey was mobilizing strength again to expand influence over the Black Sea and Caucasus regions, this time by providing “game-changing” drone technology to Ukrainian forces.

Russia will be “unhappy”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy.

Clearly, Turkey’s latest intervention in the Ukraine conflict has left Russia deeply worried. In the past, Russia has at times praised the friendly relationship with Ankara. This time, however, Ankara is clearly trying to profit on Russia’s pain.

Recently, Russia has continued to expand its agreement to sell the S-400 advanced air defense system to Turkey. The strategic deal has caused outrage in Washington and NATO members. But President Erdogan has ignored Western opposition to continue pursuing the S-400 deal.

The Turkish President’s bold move angered European leaders, leaving Ankara under pressure on many issues. As a personality leader, President Erdogan is not afraid to collide with many world leaders and most of them lead to confrontational results.

Cunningham speculated that, it appears, the Turkish leader never really forgave Russia for its military intervention in Syria in late 2015, a move that reversed course and stripped Ankara of any chance of achieving its goals.

Turkey’s fierce intervention in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh conflict appears to be calculated to “retaliate” against Russia.

And this time, Mr. Erdogan’s public support for Ukraine is not beyond the same reason. If the war breaks out, Moscow will be under enormous pressure to secure the situation in Donbass.

However, if Russia made a military move, Western media would immediately describe it as “Russian aggression” against Ukraine. On such an excuse, a second plan with the support of Washington and NATO would be launched. The end result was a catastrophic escalation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a reputation as a skilled “political player.” But will he beat an opponent like President Erdogan, a reckless player who is willing to fight to the end?