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Once highly sought after by capital, now it has fully entered the ice age. Where is the future of online education companies?

Author | Wang Jiarui

Edit | and Yirong

Cover | Mapworm Net

Online education has ushered in an industry shock.

In just one year, the development of online education has been like a “roller coaster”. It has not only experienced the influx of industry outlets and the crazy influx of capital, but also suffered the looting of industry regulatory storms and capital ebb.

With the introduction of a series of regulatory policies, the online education industry has fallen to the bottom, and the stock prices of listed companies such as New Oriental, Good Future, and Gaotu Group have plummeted, and have generally fallen by more than 50% since the beginning of the year.

Many companies have laid off employees and contracted their businesses in order to protect themselves.

According to many media reports, Job Gang is about to start major layoffs and is currently conducting interviews in accordance with the department, mainly for low- and young business lines. Resigned employees are compensated in accordance with the statutory N+1 policy.

Gaotu Class is no exception. According to late reports, the proportion of layoffs was 20%. Its 3 to 8 year old enlightenment business “Early Enlightenment” was cut off across the board, and nearly 1,000 employees were forced to transfer or leave. In addition, news of large-scale layoffs have also been reported in Yuanfudao and Chalk Education.

Once highly sought after by capital, now it has fully entered the ice age. Where is the future of online education companies?

When the tuyere encounters a regulatory storm

A sudden epidemic has pushed online education to the forefront. According to data from iResearch Consulting, the online education industry market scale in 2020 will increase by 35.5% year-on-year to reach 257.3 billion yuan. The main reasons for the rapid growth are low-children, quality education, and the acceleration of the online process of K12 discipline training track.

According to the statistics of the open data of the entrepreneurial state, so far, the total financing of Ape Coaching, Job Gang, VIPKID, and Spark Thinking is 4 billion U.S. dollars, 3.4 billion U.S. dollars, 1 billion U.S. dollars, and 600 million U.S. dollars, respectively. .

According to IT orange statistics, as of June 2, the valuations of Yuandaodao, VIPKID, and Spark Thinking reached 15.5 billion U.S. dollars, 4.5 billion U.S. dollars, and 1.5 billion U.S. dollars, respectively. The last financing of Jobbank occurred on December 28, 2020, and the valuation after the completion of the financing reached approximately US$11 billion.

However, the high financing amount and high valuation cannot change the fact that no online education company is profitable. These online education companies are madly burning money to acquire customers. WeChat, Douyin, APP screens, subway stations, elevators… wherever you can see online education advertisements, and marketing costs remain high. At the same time, false propaganda and excessive propaganda continue to raise questions.

Regulators began to take action.

On April 24, institutions such as Xueersi Online School, Gaotu, Netease Youdao Premium Classes, and Yuanjiao were notified by the Beijing Municipal Education Commission for violations of regulations and early admission fees.

The next day, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Market Supervision organized special inspections for off-campus education and training institutions, and investigated and dealt with violations of prices and false propaganda by off-campus education and training institutions in accordance with the law. Four off-campus education and training institutions such as Gaotu Classroom, Xueersi, New Oriental Online, and Gaosi were fined 500,000 yuan.

On May 10th, the Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Bureau implemented false or misleading commercial propaganda behaviors and price tactics to lure consumers into transactions due to fictitious teaching experience and other false content, and imposed two leading online education actors in accordance with the law. Beast-Job Gang and Ape Guidance were given a warning and a fine of 2.5 million yuan respectively.

A bigger storm is still behind.

On May 21, the 19th meeting of the Central Comprehensive Deepening Reform Committee formally reviewed and approved the “Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Students’ Work and Extra-School Training in the Compulsory Education Stage” (referred to as the “Double Reduction” Opinions). The burden of student homework and off-campus training.

On June 1, the new version of the “Law on the Protection of Minors” came into effect. On the same day, the State Administration of Market Supervision announced the decision to impose top fines on 15 off-campus training institutions for false propaganda and price fraud. The total amount of fines was as high as 36.5 million yuan.

Almost overnight, the “enthusiasm” of online education has cooled.

Way out

Regarding the reason for the sudden advent of strong supervision, a well-known investment institution investor who did not want to be named told Chuangye Bang that the regulators are not only concerned about false propaganda and price measures, but more importantly, social equity. Online education is placed in the current social environment, which actually affects the balance between fairness and efficiency.

Facing strong industry regulation, investors in the primary market have become extremely pessimistic about the online education industry.

“Investors dare not place any more orders. This industry is currently unsustainable.” The above-mentioned investor said.

In this investor’s view, since 2017, companies in the online education industry have been doing online large-scale classes. The essence of large-class classes is to buy and sell classes. Once they do not buy, their income will drop very sharply. At the same time, none of these companies has made money so far. A business model that hasn’t made money for five years under the acceleration of the entire industry is most likely because this business model is a false proposition.

He said that in the absence of follow-up financing for blood transfusion, some top unlisted online education companies are likely to face the risk of breaking the capital chain within six months or one year.

Another unnamed industry analyst said that for online education companies that are currently unlisted, such as job help, ape tutoring, VIPKID and other leading companies, related listing plans may be disturbed, and the pace of listing and financing may slow down and need to be calmly reassessed. Business form, scope of listed assets and timetable for re-planning.

If these companies really can’t continue to operate, it means that investors’ nearly tens of billions of dollars of investment have been in vain.

It is undeniable that online education breaks the traditional education form, breaks through the shackles of time and scene, and brings unprecedented industry changes.

More industry insiders are actively discussing the future of the online education industry. A number of brokerage industry analysts have told Entrepreneur that the logic of industry development and online education will change.

One view is that regulation will benefit leading education companies that have already gone public.

An analyst from Minsheng Securities who did not want to be named believes that in the future, the extracurricular tutoring market may increase supervision or become the norm. In the short term, the industry may experience pains due to stricter regulation. But in the long run, under the premise that the overall selection system remains unchanged, the demand for training is still strong. After the small and medium organizations at the tail are squeezed out, the demand will be concentrated in the large organizations at the head.

For different tracks, the impact of regulatory policies is quite different. For example, the new version of the Law on the Protection of Minors stipulates that “kindergartens and out-of-school training institutions shall not provide primary school curriculum education to preschool-age minors.” All cancellations due to violation of laws and regulations.

Pang Ming believes that under the disorderly expansion of capital, the brutal expansion and extensive operation characterized by low prices, price wars and other vicious competition patterns will no longer be feasible. In the short term, only companies with high marketing efficiency, high renewal rates, and high retention conversion rates are expected to achieve lower customer acquisition costs and are more likely to overcome the difficulties.

At the same time, considering the imbalance in the distribution of educational resources and the difficulty of a fundamental change in the selection and evaluation system in the short term, there is still a demand for online education in the market.

In the future, online education companies should abandon the development mentality of burning money to pursue scale and volume, optimize the balance of large class, small class, and one-to-one curriculum system, and change the placement of conversion as the main purpose to objective publicity. Brands, to strengthen brand awareness-focused placement.

Only in this way can online education adapt to normalized supervision and competition.

Preliminary preparation of ingredients for grilled beef with guise leaves Beef: Wash, dry, cut into pieces and mince. Betel leaves: Wash each leaf, drain, divide into 3 parts, 2 parts are left to roll beef, 1 part is finely chopped. Lemongrass, ginger, dried onion, garlic: Clean, minced. Chili with stalks, washed, chopped 2 fruits (if you eat spicy) 1 fruit trimmed flowers. Steps to make grilled beef roll with guise leaves Marinated meat with ingredients including lemongrass, ginger, dried onion, garlic, chili, chopped bay leaves along with 1.5 teaspoons of seasoning seeds, 1 teaspoon of fish sauce, 1 teaspoon of MSG, 1 teaspoon of pepper powder, ½ spoon of cooking oil, mix well, leave for 30 minutes to fully infuse the spices. Then spread out the leaves, put 1 teaspoon of meat on the outside of the leaves, roll them up, you can use a toothpick to skewer to keep the grilled beef in position or use the onion leaves blanched in boiling water to tie. Continue until you run out of ingredients. Grilled beef roll with guise leaves: – Bake in the oven: Preheat the oven to 250 degrees for 5-10 minutes. Next, use a brush to lightly brush a layer of sesame oil or cooking oil on the tray and roll the surface and bake for 15 minutes to meet the requirements. – Grilled with charcoal: The best way to make grilled beef with lolot leaves is to grill with charcoal. Fan red coal, then arrange grilled beef with guise leaves on the grill, use a brush to brush a thin layer of oil and put it on a charcoal grill, keep the coals at a moderate temperature, turn your hands evenly when grilling so that the beef rolls are cooked evenly. without burning. It takes about 20 minutes to smell good. Cooked beef rolls with bay leaves are placed on a plate, served hot with raw vegetables, noodles, lemon garlic fish sauce or chili sauce. Grilled beef roll with guise leaves is a particularly delicious dish (Illustrated photo) How to choose good beef: You should note that you should not buy pre-ground beef at the butcher shops because it is difficult to know if it is fresh ground beef or not. It is best for mothers to choose their own piece of beef and ask the seller to grind it for you or bring it home to ensure the quality of the meat. In fact, small traders use many ways to turn pork and buffalo meat into beef. There are even pieces of rotten meat, which are “enchanted” to become delicious dishes “sloppy” in people’s daily meals without knowing anything. Through the reference process as well as the experience of housewives, it is not too difficult to distinguish what is good beef and what is bad beef. If it is real, fresh beef, it will look dark red on the outside, the meat is hunted and sliced ​​with adhesion and elasticity. When the seller is selling, you should pay attention to the cut inside. If the same color, the color is still fresh, then you can rest assured 50%. Particularly with fake beef will not look fresh, if it is pork it will be stronger than beef. If it is buffalo meat, the color of the meat is dark red, not bright red. This is an important trick in distinguishing fake or real beef that mothers should pay attention to observe. But that’s not all, the trick to choosing good beef is when you buy it, slice it thinly and soak it in water. After about 10-15 minutes, take it out and see, if the meat only loosens but the water is still white, it means that it is real beef. But if the piece of meat changes color to pink and white, and the color of the water also changes, it is 100% fake beef with pork. Eating these foods poses a huge risk to family and community health. In particular, when cooking delicious beef, it will have the aroma of beef, a bit stale, but if it is fake beef, there will be a bad smell of pork (because pork eats bran when cooking has an unpleasant odor). Xiao Chien (Synthetic)

“Show me I’m asleep.”

“Looking doze, I withdrew halfway.”

“It is recommended to watch a five-minute film explanation video on the Internet.”

It is hard to imagine that these bad reviews will appear under the film “The Lord of the Rings”, which has won numerous praises, won more than 20 Oscar nominations, and won the Golden Man 17 times.

(Scene from the movie “The Lord of the Rings”)

“The Lord of the Rings” was re-screened recently, but there was a spectacle in the ratings: when the movie was released, the Maoyan rating was actually lower than the Douban rating, and now the ratings of the two platforms have been even. You know, the cat’s eye score of movies has always been much higher than the Douban score. Take the movie “Detective Conan: Scarlet Bullet”, which was released at the same time and also had the same sentimental bonus, which scored 8.5 on Cat’s Eye and only 6.0 on Douban.

The audience complains most about the length of the movie. Some netizens even said: “I saw a movie for the first time in my life and saw half of it left the cinema.”

(Screenshot from Maoyan’s short comment)

Today’s sorrowful scene is in sharp contrast with the popularity of The Lord of the Rings when it was released in mainland China.

In 2004, many theaters launched three consecutive screenings of “The Lord of the Rings”, and even the “Lord of the Rings Series Super Endurance Challenge” appeared. The Dada band reorganized in 2020 will serve as the “Star Patrol” of the game, specifically looking for fans who are sleeping in the middle.

(The screenshot of the news at the time was from Sohu Entertainment)

Over the past 17 years, the box office of China’s film industry has exceeded 1.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 20 billion in the first quarter of 2021. There is no doubt that the film industry is booming. But from the time when countless fans became addicted to “Lord of the Rings” to the “smelly and long” one-star complaint, we seem to have become increasingly unacceptable to long-term movies. Observing the people around you can even find that we have become less and less able to see what needs to be paid attention to for a long time. What makes us so “impatient”?

Internet products represented by short videos are eating people’s attention

In restaurants, subways, buses, and even at home, you can see people around you following the short video “hahaha” on your phone.

(Passengers on the subway are watching a short video)

According to data from iiMedia Research, China’s short video market has reached 140.83 billion yuan in 2020. According to the statistics of the Kugo User Research Institute, users are becoming more and more dependent on the mobile Internet in 2019. The growth of user time in the short video industry contributed nearly 40% of the overall time increase, the fastest growth rate. IiMedia’s survey also showed that In 2020, 37.2% of users said they spend more and more time using Douyin every day , 37.1% and 38.9% of users said that the time spent on Douyin and Kuaishou was the same as usual. In June 2018, the “Survey Report on Internet Use and Network Security of Chinese Youths” pointed out that nearly half of teenagers can spend less than 2 hours on the Internet every day, and 24% of teenagers spend 2 to 4 hours on the Internet every day. In all entertainment activities, 20% of teenagers said they “almost always” watch short videos, and the proportion of teenagers who “watch a few times a day” is also close to 10% . This ratio of addiction has surpassed that of online games.

Elicit the topic within 4 seconds, reverse 2-3 times within 15 seconds, and the short video captures people’s attention in every way. We are attracted to this kind of content that has bursts in 5 seconds, but when we want to sit down and read a book, we find it a little difficult. Especially when I saw a long story, I read it for a while and my thoughts fluttered. I unconsciously clicked on the phone with my finger and swiped a short video. I didn’t wake up until I was studying for an hour or two. I originally wanted to read a book.

The young people who were born and grew up in the short video era may not even have the above-mentioned struggle, because “watching short videos in their free time” has become a natural thing in their minds.

In such an environment, it is indeed a bit embarrassing to watch the first part of “The Lord of the Rings” for three hours and focus on building a grand world view.

Sweet, cool, and brainless content is gradually becoming a must-have for people after get off work

And even those who grew up in the graphic era, even those who have had the habit of deep reading, seem to be gradually losing patience, one of the reasons is “life is too hard.”

Overloaded work continues to consume people’s minds, and people urgently need something that does not use their brains but can quickly obtain happiness to replenish themselves with “sugar” and energy, so milk tea desserts have become a must for everyone to work overtime. The content has become a must-have for everyone after get off work.

“I no longer watch American dramas and literary films, because I can’t spend more time in the handful of rest periods to feel the world for the characters in the drama.” A netizen said so. He is a person who loves watching movies, but after working, a lot of mental energy is constantly exhausted, and he gradually let go of this hobby.

There are also long “epics” like “Lord of the Rings” that have been gradually put down by people. We gradually have no patience to wait for the establishment of a grand worldview. The long videos (film and TV dramas) we want also need to be like short videos, refreshing and intensive, inverted frequently. So from “The Story of Yanxi Palace” and “Celebrating More Than Years” to this year’s “Zuo Son” and “The Top Floor”, more and more dramas and dog-blood dramas have exploded.

(Poster of “Zui Son-in-law”)

And the creative team of these film and television dramas also has a deep insight into this need of urbanites. Kim Soon-ok, the screenwriter of “Top Floor”, known as the “Queen of Korean Drama Dog Blood”, said when he mentioned his creative purpose: “I just want to give some hope in life to those hopeless people who feel that they can’t live anymore today. .If I expect my TV series to be a kind of fun for them, this is the biggest meaning to me. In fact, after the launch of “Top Floor”, “Monday Sickness” also disappeared, and many people are looking forward to Monday’s arrival.”

Without patience, what crisis will we face next?

Entertainment is not a bad thing, but when the content of our entertainment is only part of the short videos and brainless dramas that pursue sensory stimulation, we are caught in a “shallow” state of excessive entertainment.

The first thing we will face is Attention crisis.

Robert Hassan, a professor in the Department of Culture and Communication at the University of Melbourne, Australia, explained this crisis by comparing paper book reading with electronic reading. He believes that the “reading brain” formed by paper book reading is characterized by stronger formation of synapses, and these synaptic connections constitute deep memory and long-term concentration capabilities. In contrast, the interface on a digital screen has the opposite effect. Reading mainly from the screen actually weakens the synaptic connections, making the brain underdeveloped in terms of memory and concentration.

And this is just the author’s comparison and analysis of graphics and text. If you add short video elements that switch in 15 seconds on the electronic screen, people’s attention will only be more difficult to gather.

In the time when our attention is continuously distracted, we are gradually losing the ability to contemplate and reflect.

So we ushered in the second crisis: Thinking ability crisis.

The famous American science and technology writer Nicholas Carr summed up the state of our brains after being “poisoned” in one word: shallow.

He believes that the various irritating noises emitted by the Internet have caused the short-circuit of conscious thinking and the short-circuit of subconscious thinking, thus hindering us from deep thinking and creative thinking. Our brain has become a simple signal processor, constantly transforming information into consciousness rapidly. We are getting more and more comfortable with scanning and skimming, but what we are losing is the ability to concentrate, contemplate, and reflect.

“Before, I took a diving respirator and moved slowly in the sea of ​​words. Now, I am like a motorboat rider, whizzing past the water.”

We who have lost the ability to reflect are becoming more and more susceptible to outside influences. After seeing marketing articles that are constantly selling anxiety, and seeing the jealously showing off videos, we also become anxious and start to crave things that others are pursuing, but we may not need.

At the same time, the lack of reflective ability can also lead to the degradation of communication (Robert Hassan). Our communication on social media will degenerate into negative, vain remarks, or verbal abuse, partisanship, slander, and all other communication emotions that may lead to conflict. Because conflicts are the foundation of social media’s survival, and under their “guidance”, people vent their emotions.

Going back to content creation, once the audience loses patience and only likes to watch sensory stimulating content, it will in turn affect the content creator. After all, the capital for the survival of content is flow. At the end of the day, the audience’s situation changes from “only watching content without brain” to “only content without brain”, and we will fall into more anxiety, emptiness and conflict.

How can these crises be avoided?

Deep reading and thinking.

For reading, Robert Hassan went further and suggested reading paper books. He elaborated: “Experiments have shown that if a reader who reads text on the screen switches the screen to print, then synaptic connections, as well as their memory and concentration levels can be quickly improved.”

In-depth reading can make us no longer “whistle by the surface of the water”, but can take “diving respirators, and move slowly in the ocean of words.”

In-depth thinking during or after reading can maximally block us from the arrival of the “brainless” future.

Today happens to be “World Book Day”. I don’t know how many friends have opened books because of this holiday. It is beneficial to open the book. I hope that every day will be your study day.

Reference materials:

Carnival of 640 million users: short video user insight report-Kooge User Research Institute

“Lord of the Rings” “Disgusted” by this audience-Poison Eye

We holding mobile phones are experiencing a crisis of attention-Beijing News Book Review Weekly

Author | Crooked Tree

Produced | Tiger Sniff Business Team

Author｜Li Ling

Head image｜IC photo

On April 17, Beijing time, the parent company of DipChip submitted a listing application to the SEC, planning to list on the New York Stock Exchange through the issuance of ADS under the code “WDH”.

In this prospectus, Waterdrop defines itself as “a leading technology platform dedicated to insurance protection and medical and health services”, but did not announce the number of shares issued and the amount of funds raised. When the news of Waterdrop’s listing in the United States came out in the second half of 2020, its market value was around US$6 billion.

In fact, in the current division of business areas in my country, it is difficult to properly summarize and define Drip. If the only profitable insurance brokerage business currently fits “insurance protection”, medical and health services are part of Drip’s unproven feasibility.

The core business model of Waterdrop at this stage is to “establish a social network of protection and assistance through Waterdrop Chips, Waterdrop Mutual Aid and Waterdrop Insurance, so as to increase the insurance awareness of domestic consumers, and then provide insurance protection and medical and health services.”

In other words, Waterdrop first obtains strong-associated social users through online fundraising (waterdrop financing) and network mutual assistance (waterdrop mutual assistance), and establishes the user’s risk control mind, and then uses the Internet insurance broker (waterdrop insurance mall) business to provide users with risks. The solution is to sell insurance.

Not long ago in March, Water droplets shut down water droplets help each other . Compared with Meituan, which shut down its mutual assistance business earlier and returned all of the user’s share of the money, Waterdrop made a unilateral notice and did not give users any compensatory measures. From the perspective of the industry, The unilateral shutdown of Waterdrop Mutual Aid is clearing the barriers to listing and also reflects the urgency of its listing.

No matter what, the water droplet will have the title of “first share”, but the specific definition of which field is not so appropriate. Both online mutual assistance and online crowdfunding are currently in a dark area of ​​regulation. The former is forced to close due to compliance risks, and the latter has not yet issued suitable regulatory regulations, but it has been criticized by public opinion several times for harvesting love. Neither of them has the ability to be benchmarked for listing.

The intermediary commissions earned by insurance brokers are essentially flow realization, with limited sustainability, and it is hard to say how high the technological barriers are.

The core business is under a strong regulatory environment, and the new business is still in its infancy. Why is Water Drop eager to go public at this time? The answer is hidden in the data in the prospectus.

Lose for three years, you may lose more years

The prospectus disclosed that from 2018 to 2020, the total revenue of Waterdrop was 238 million yuan, 1.511 billion yuan, and 3.028 billion yuan, respectively. Revenue in 2019 increased by 535% year-on-year, and in 2020 it increased by 100% year-on-year.

Water drop’s revenue has not yet covered expenditures. Water drop’s total operating expenses for the same period were 426 million yuan, 1.705 billion yuan, and 3.524 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 300% and 107% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Its net losses for the same period were 209 million yuan, 322 million yuan, and 664 million yuan.

In other words, in the past three years, Waterdrop has earned 4.8 billion yuan in revenue and nearly 1.2 billion yuan in losses. The loss in 2019 increased by 39% year-on-year. In 2020, the revenue growth rate dropped sharply, and the loss also expanded at the same time, with a year-on-year increase of 106%. The risk factors section of the prospectus stated that operating losses may continue in the future.

Judging from the growth rate of the last two years alone, the trend of water drop’s revenue and expenditure remains the same: when expenditure doubles in 2019, its revenue growth rate reaches its peak. Expenditure shrinks in 2020, and revenue growth has also begun to fall off a cliff.

Waterdrop was established in 2016. According to the development stage of the Internet company, it will either precipitate or erupt in three to five years. Waterdrop belongs to the latter. Based on social traffic, it broke out earlier, but the abnormal business growth at this stage “brakes” because the business model causes traffic. To the top of the realisation, or the phased investment is too large, some clues may be seen from the marketing expenses.

From 2018 to 2020, the marketing expenses of Water Drop were 185 million yuan, 1.058 billion yuan, and 2.131 billion yuan, respectively. The three-year marketing expenses were as high as 3.374 billion yuan.

If split into the proportion of annual operating expenses, Waterdrop’s marketing expenses in 2018 accounted for 43% of operating expenses, marketing expenses in 2019 accounted for 62% of operating expenses, and marketing expenses in 2020 accounted for 60% of operating expenses.

Marketing expenses account for 60% of operating expenses, and it is not a good thing to look at where they are placed. Furthermore, the high marketing costs also represent the high cost of acquiring customers at the front end of Waterdrop. Under the trend of tightening supervision, whether marketing can be used to drive business growth has to be questioned.

In contrast, the R&D expenses in the above period were 69 million yuan, 215 million yuan, and 244 million yuan, accounting for 16%, 13%, and 7% of operating expenses during the same period.

The highest proportion of R&D investment is less than 20%, and the lowest is only 7%, and there is a tendency to decrease. In this case, Waterdrop has to say that it is a technology platform, most likely to tell a good story to the capital market.

For water droplets whose income is far from covering expenditures and needs to rely on continuously increasing investment in marketing to maintain operation, Getting money on the market is a matter of course. But the previous valuation of 6 billion yuan is likely to be greatly discounted.

A company that sells insurance, worth $6 billion?

From the perspective of revenue composition, Waterdrop can be called “a company that sells insurance.”

Its revenue is composed of four parts: “income from securities, futures and insurance brokerage business”, “technical service income”, “management fee income” and “other business”.

The first income with a very long name can be simply understood as the diversion fee of Waterdrop Insurance, which is the commission for selling insurance; technical service fee refers to the technological solutions provided by Waterdrop to cooperative insurance companies and institutions; management fee refers to Waterdrop In the mutual assistance business, the platform extracts 8% of the operating and management expenses from the total mutual assistance fund; other businesses mainly refer to new businesses in the medical service field that have not achieved large-scale revenue.

In 2018, Waterdrop’s total revenue was 238 million yuan, of which insurance commission income was 122 million yuan, technical service income was 59 million yuan, management fee income was 47 million yuan, and other revenues were 10 million yuan, which contributed to the revenue respectively. They are 51%, 25%, 20% and 4%.

In 2019, Waterdrop’s total revenue was 1.511 billion yuan, of which insurance commission income was 1.31 billion yuan, technical service income was 50 million yuan, management fee income was 140 million yuan, and other income was 80 million yuan, accounting for 87% of revenue. , 3%, 9%, 1%.

In 2020, Waterdrop’s revenue is 3.028 billion yuan, of which insurance commission income is 2.695 billion yuan, technical service income is 194 million yuan, management fee income is 110 million yuan, and other income is 29 million yuan, accounting for 89% of revenue, respectively. 6%, 4%, 1%.

A notable trend is that insurance commission income occupies an increasingly important position in revenue contribution, from 50% to nearly 90%. The technical service fees and management fees, which originally combined to contribute 45% of revenue, have been compressed to 10% of their revenue contribution. The contribution of other income to revenue in the past three years is very small, almost negligible.

The “partial branch” of Waterdrop has made insurance commissions a major part of its revenue. At the same time, its insurance income is also concentrated from ZhongAn Insurance, China Taiping Life Insurance, and Hongkang Life Insurance.

As of December 31, 2020, the cumulative number of insurance users of Waterdrop was approximately 79.4 million. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the cumulative number of users who purchased insurance was 1.7 million, 8.8 million and 19.2 million. Insurance revenues in the first year were 972 million yuan, 6.668 billion yuan, and 14.426 billion yuan.

Among them, ZhongAn Insurance accounted for 21.7% of Waterdrop’s revenue in 2018, China Taiping Life Insurance accounted for 24.8% of Waterdrop’s total business in 2020, and Hongkang Life Insurance accounted for 11.1% of its total revenue in 2020.

With a single core business and a concentrated source of income, it is difficult to find a cure for the problems of Waterdrop’s profitability and growth space in a short period of time. Although the prospectus discloses that Waterdrop has obtained the online medical sales qualification and drug distribution license, its new business related to medical services has weak momentum and large uncertainties, so it is too far-fetched to define it as a medical service platform.

Even if it is valued according to its core business, ZhongAn Insurance, which has an insurance license, has a total market value of no more than 9 billion U.S. dollars. Only the water droplets with an insurance brokerage license are far away from 6 billion U.S. dollars.

The diversion artifact is gone, how else to tell the story

Even at the current stage of continuous loss of money and high marketing expenses, for the Internet star company blessed by the former executives of Meituan, this does not affect Waterdrop’s storytelling for investors.

Waterdrop’s prospectus stated that its user conversion capabilities can realize the lifetime value of user groups through my country’s insurance market, drive long-term growth, and expand the field of medical services.

In other words, insurance income will become the core income of Waterdrop in the longer term, and it will also become the basis for expanding medical services in the future.

But among the risk factors, Waterdrop cited insurance, crowdfunding Business growth is affected by the future development of third-party insurance brokerage agents and the medical crowdfunding industry. Risks such as the uncertainty of changes in the regulatory system .

Waterdrop’s insurance brokerage business is essentially flow monetization. Through waterdrop mutual assistance and waterdrop chip to obtain targeted traffic, it is also easier to convert to related insurance types. Waterdrop’s insurance brokerage license was officially obtained in May 2017, through a wholly-owned acquisition of Baoduoduo Insurance Brokers Co., Ltd.

The biggest difference between an insurance broker company and an insurance company is that the former does not produce insurance but only sells insurance, and at the same time can participate in the design of insurance products. Waterdrop’s second largest revenue is to design insurance jointly with insurance companies based on user data and charge technical service fees. It is still the realization of traffic (data).

After all, insurance brokers still work for insurance companies, and when traffic is always capped, the uncertainty brought about by regulatory changes also makes it harder and harder for platform intermediaries to make money.

In December 2020, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will adjust the supervision of online insurance business, which will take effect in February 2021. The adjustment change is that the insurance brokerage platform sets up customer management, information protection, etc. It also requires the platform to standardize promotional materials and marketing activities, and users can only apply for insurance online through the online interface of insurance institutions.

In addition to restricting insurance brokers’ over-acquisition of user information, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has also improved the platform’s infrastructure and network security standards, which will undoubtedly increase operational and security costs.

In March, the water drop shut down the water drop to help each other, and only the water drop chip can divert the insurance. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the first year premium of Water Drop Insurance was approximately 46.5%, 23.0% and 13.0% were from water drop chips.

The user conversion rate of DipChip has dropped visibly. The prospectus did not disclose the total number of registered users of Waterdrop and related growth data. Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether the water drop chip will produce a continuous and stable transformation of insurance in the future.

Now, Waterdrop is undoubtedly a marketing-driven insurance brokerage company. Having not yet proven its potential in the field of medical and health services, coupled with weak profitability, and no longer listing to raise money, I am afraid that even Didi Chai, which has a low operating cost, will not be able to do it.

Not only sunscreen, today’s cosmetic world is becoming extremely diverse with a multitude of sunscreen spray products, powder, tablets … to help protect the skin more convenient and effective. Recently, the bar-shaped sunscreen wax continues to become a new trend when it appears in many photos or videos of beauty-loving girls. What is the reason it is loved? Simple and convenient usage The waxy texture is what makes up most of this line of sun protection products. Specifically, it makes the application step faster and easier. There is no need to pour the product into your hands and then apply it to your skin, the sunscreen wax shortens these steps into a single step: apply the product directly to the face. This method of use will also make it simpler to reapply sunscreen during the day, no product sticking to hands or clothes. Easy to carry around every day Sunscreen wax meets every girl’s requirement for convenience. Its compact design fits in the palm of the hand making it easily fit in any bag. The waxy texture also completely eliminates the risk of the product melting in the bag. Innisfree City Vacance Sun Stick SPF50 + / PA ++++ has a relatively wide wax surface, suitable for use on the face and neck area. Does not feel greasy Unlike cream-based and milk-based sunscreens, stick sunscreens give a dry feeling, leaving no greasy feeling on the skin. You do not need to wait for the product to penetrate all but can still be applied in many layers, saving a lot of time in the morning. JM Solution Marine Luminous Pearl Sun Stick SPF 50+ PA ++++ is extracted from seaweed and pearls to effectively protect against sun and whiten. Fast absorbent wax, not greasy, does not lift skin tone, especially anti-drift when the skin spills oil, sweat. Limit product getting into eyes The problem of sunscreen that can accidentally get into your eyes causes a burning, uncomfortable feeling can completely be solved with sunscreen wax. Its concentrated wax formula allows you to apply the product exactly to the areas of skin that are needed, and the thick and difficult to melt waxy substance helps the eye area to be protected safely. The Saem Eco Earth Power Clear Sun Stick contains plant extracts and natural oils with a vitamin complex to help prevent environmental damage such as sun, wind, pollution, dust … The special feature of AHC Natural Perfection Fresh Sun Stick is the UV Alarm Feature system (UV sensor) integrated in the ingot lid. When the product is placed in the sun, the bar cap will show more or less UV rays by turning a purple-blue color. Darker colors mean more UV rays in the sun. Posts: Pure sound

Produced | Tiger Sniff Business Team

Author｜Li Ling

Head image｜IC photo

On April 17, Beijing time, the parent company of DipChip submitted a listing application to the SEC, planning to list on the New York Stock Exchange through the issuance of ADS under the code “WDH”.

In this prospectus, Waterdrop defines itself as “a leading technology platform dedicated to insurance protection and medical and health services”, but did not announce the number of shares issued and the amount of funds raised. When the news of Waterdrop’s listing in the United States came out in the second half of 2020, its market value was around US$6 billion.

In fact, in the current division of business areas in my country, it is difficult to properly summarize and define Drip. If the only profitable insurance brokerage business currently fits “insurance protection”, medical and health services are part of Drip’s unproven feasibility.

The core business model of Waterdrop at this stage is to “establish a social network of protection and assistance through Waterdrop Chips, Waterdrop Mutual Aid and Waterdrop Insurance, so as to increase the insurance awareness of domestic consumers, and then provide insurance protection and medical and health services.”

In other words, Waterdrop first obtains strong-associated social users through online fundraising (waterdrop financing) and network mutual assistance (waterdrop mutual assistance), and establishes the user’s risk control mind, and then uses the Internet insurance broker (waterdrop insurance mall) business to provide users with risks The solution is to sell insurance.

Not long ago in March, Water droplets shut down water droplets help each other . Compared with Meituan, which shut down its mutual assistance business earlier and returned all of the user’s share of the money, Waterdrop made a unilateral notice and did not give users any compensatory measures. From the perspective of the industry, The unilateral shutdown of Waterdrop Mutual Aid is clearing the barriers to listing and also reflects the urgency of its listing.

No matter what, the water droplet will have the title of “first share”, but the specific definition of which field is not so appropriate. Both online mutual assistance and online crowdfunding are currently in a dark area of ​​regulation. The former is forced to close due to compliance risks, and the latter has not yet issued suitable regulatory regulations, but it has been criticized by public opinion several times for harvesting love. Neither of them has the ability to be benchmarked for listing.

The intermediary commissions earned by insurance brokers are essentially flow realization, with limited sustainability, and it is hard to say how high the technological barriers are.

The core business is under a strong regulatory environment, and the new business is still in its infancy. Why is Water Drop eager to go public at this time? The answer is hidden in the data in the prospectus.

Lose for three years, you may lose more years

The prospectus disclosed that from 2018 to 2020, the total revenue of Waterdrop was 238 million yuan, 1.511 billion yuan, and 3.028 billion yuan, respectively. Revenue in 2019 increased by 535% year-on-year, and in 2020 it increased by 100% year-on-year.

Water drop’s revenue has not yet covered expenditures. Water drop’s total operating expenses for the same period were 426 million yuan, 1.705 billion yuan, and 3.524 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 300% and 107% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Its net losses for the same period were 209 million yuan, 322 million yuan, and 664 million yuan.

In other words, in the past three years, Waterdrop has earned 4.8 billion yuan in revenue and lost nearly 1.2 billion yuan. The loss in 2019 increased by 39% year-on-year. In 2020, the revenue growth rate dropped sharply, and the loss also expanded at the same time, with a year-on-year increase of 106%. The risk factors section of the prospectus stated that operating losses may continue in the future.

Judging from the growth rate of the last two years alone, the trend of water drop’s revenue and expenditure remains the same: when expenditure doubles in 2019, its revenue growth rate reaches its peak. Expenditure shrinks in 2020, and revenue growth has also begun to fall off a cliff.

Waterdrop was established in 2016. According to the development stage of the Internet company, it will either precipitate or erupt in three to five years. Waterdrop belongs to the latter. Based on social traffic, it broke out earlier, but the abnormal business growth at this stage “brakes” because the business model causes traffic. To the top of the realisation, or the phased investment is too large, some clues may be seen from the marketing expenses.

From 2018 to 2020, the marketing expenses of Water Drop were 185 million yuan, 1.058 billion yuan, and 2.131 billion yuan, respectively. The three-year marketing expenses were as high as 3.374 billion yuan.

If split into the proportion of annual operating expenses, Waterdrop’s marketing expenses in 2018 accounted for 43% of operating expenses, marketing expenses in 2019 accounted for 62% of operating expenses, and marketing expenses in 2020 accounted for 60% of operating expenses.

Marketing expenses account for 60% of operating expenses, and it is not a good thing to look at where they are placed. Furthermore, the high marketing costs also represent the high cost of acquiring customers at the front end of Waterdrop. Under the trend of tightening supervision, whether marketing can be used to drive business growth has to be questioned.

In contrast, the R&D expenses in the above period were 69 million yuan, 215 million yuan, and 244 million yuan, accounting for 16%, 13%, and 7% of operating expenses during the same period.

The highest proportion of R&D investment is less than 20%, and the lowest is only 7%, and there is a tendency to decrease. In this case, Waterdrop has to say that it is a technology platform, most likely to tell a good story to the capital market.

For water droplets whose income is far from covering expenditures and needs to rely on continuously increasing investment in marketing to maintain operation, Getting money on the market is a matter of course. But the previous valuation of 6 billion yuan is likely to be greatly discounted.

A company that sells insurance, worth $6 billion?

From the perspective of revenue composition, Waterdrop can be called “a company that sells insurance.”

Its revenue is composed of four parts: “income from securities, futures and insurance brokerage business”, “technical service income”, “management fee income” and “other business”.

The first income with a very long name can be simply understood as the diversion fee of Waterdrop Insurance, which is the commission for selling insurance; technical service fee refers to the technological solutions provided by Waterdrop to cooperative insurance companies and institutions; management fee refers to Waterdrop In the mutual assistance business, the platform extracts 8% of the operating and management expenses from the total mutual assistance fund; other businesses mainly refer to new businesses in the medical service field that have not achieved large-scale revenue.

In 2018, Waterdrop’s total revenue was 238 million yuan, of which insurance commission income was 122 million yuan, technical service income was 59 million yuan, management fee income was 47 million yuan, and other revenues were 10 million yuan, which contributed to the revenue respectively. They are 51%, 25%, 20% and 4%.

In 2019, Waterdrop’s total revenue was 1.511 billion yuan, of which insurance commission income was 1.31 billion yuan, technical service income was 50 million yuan, management fee income was 140 million yuan, and other income was 80 million yuan, accounting for 87% of revenue. , 3%, 9%, 1%.

In 2020, Waterdrop’s revenue is 3.028 billion yuan, of which insurance commission income is 2.695 billion yuan, technical service income is 194 million yuan, management fee income is 110 million yuan, and other income is 29 million yuan, accounting for 89% of revenue, respectively. 6%, 4%, 1%.

A notable trend is that insurance commission income occupies an increasingly important position in revenue contribution, from 50% to nearly 90%. The technical service fees and management fees, which originally combined to contribute 45% of revenue, have been compressed to 10% of their revenue contribution. The contribution of other income to revenue in the past three years is very small, almost negligible.

The “partial branch” of Waterdrop has made insurance commissions a major part of its revenue. At the same time, its insurance income is also concentrated from ZhongAn Insurance, China Taiping Life Insurance, and Hongkang Life Insurance.

As of December 31, 2020, the cumulative number of insurance users of Waterdrop was approximately 79.4 million. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the cumulative number of users who purchased insurance was 1.7 million, 8.8 million and 19.2 million. Insurance revenues in the first year were 972 million yuan, 6.668 billion yuan, and 14.426 billion yuan.

Among them, ZhongAn Insurance accounted for 21.7% of Waterdrop’s revenue in 2018, China Taiping Life Insurance accounted for 24.8% of Waterdrop’s total business in 2020, and Hongkang Life Insurance accounted for 11.1% of its total revenue in 2020.

With a single core business and a concentrated source of income, it is difficult to find a cure for the problems of Waterdrop’s profitability and growth space in a short period of time. Although the prospectus disclosed that Waterdrop has obtained the online medical sales qualification and drug distribution license, its new business related to medical services has weak momentum and large uncertainties, so it is too far-fetched to define it as a medical service platform.

Even if it is valued according to its core business, ZhongAn Insurance, which has an insurance license, has a total market value of no more than 9 billion U.S. dollars. Only the water droplets with an insurance brokerage license are far away from 6 billion U.S. dollars.

The diversion artifact is gone, how else to tell the story

Even at the current stage of continuous loss of money and high marketing expenses, for the Internet star company blessed by the former executives of Meituan, this does not affect Waterdrop’s storytelling for investors.

Waterdrop’s prospectus stated that its user conversion capabilities can realize the lifetime value of user groups through my country’s insurance market, drive long-term growth, and expand the field of medical services.

In other words, insurance income will become the core income of Waterdrop in the longer term, and it will also become the basis for expanding medical services in the future.

But among the risk factors, Waterdrop cited insurance, crowdfunding Business growth is affected by the future development of third-party insurance brokerage agents and the medical crowdfunding industry. Risks such as the uncertainty of changes in the regulatory system .

Waterdrop’s insurance brokerage business is essentially flow monetization. Through waterdrop mutual assistance and waterdrop chip to obtain targeted traffic, it is also easier to convert to related insurance types. Waterdrop’s insurance brokerage license was officially obtained in May 2017, through a wholly-owned acquisition of Baoduoduo Insurance Brokers Co., Ltd.

The biggest difference between an insurance broker company and an insurance company is that the former does not produce insurance but only sells insurance, and at the same time can participate in the design of insurance products. Waterdrop’s second largest revenue is to design insurance jointly with insurance companies based on user data and charge technical service fees. It is still the realization of traffic (data).

After all, insurance brokers still work for insurance companies, and when traffic is always capped, the uncertainty brought about by regulatory changes also makes it harder and harder for platform intermediaries to make money.

In December 2020, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will adjust the supervision of online insurance business, which will take effect in February 2021. The adjustment change is that the insurance brokerage platform sets up customer management, information protection, etc. It also requires the platform to standardize promotional materials and marketing activities, and users can only apply for insurance online through the online interface of insurance institutions.

In addition to restricting insurance brokers’ over-acquisition of user information, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has also improved the platform’s infrastructure and network security standards, which will undoubtedly increase operational and security costs.

In March, the water drop shut down the water drop to help each other, and only the water drop chip can divert the insurance. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the first year premium of Water Drop Insurance was approximately 46.5%, 23.0% and 13.0% were from water drop chips.

The user conversion rate of DipChip has dropped visibly. The prospectus did not disclose the total number of registered users of Waterdrop and related growth data. Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether the water drop chip will produce a continuous and stable transformation of insurance in the future.

Now, Waterdrop is undoubtedly a marketing-driven insurance brokerage company. Having not yet proven its potential in the field of medical and health services, coupled with weak profitability, and no longer listing to raise money, I am afraid that even Didi Chai, which has a low operating cost, will not be able to do it.

Starting on the morning of April 15th, western Inner Mongolia, central and western Gansu, and central and northern Ningxia were hit by sand and dust. In the afternoon, sandy and dusty weather also appeared in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and the sky was once dark as night.

The sand and dust of the last time are still vivid. In the afternoon, the sand and dust weather landed in Beijing again. In the afternoon, the weather in Beijing turned overcast. There was a sound of “spring thunder.” It can be described as “the water of the Yellow River is coming up from the sky”!

The Meteorological Department stated that at 8 o’clock in the morning on the 15th, the sand and dust had reached the border between China and Mongolia and the western part of the Hetao. There was sand and dust weather in the city from the afternoon to the first half of the night, and the minimum visibility was about 6 kilometers. According to the China Weather Network, the impact of Beijing’s dust will continue until the first half of the night. It is expected that after tomorrow (April 16-17), the northerly wind will “drive away” the sand and dust, and there will be no backflow of sand and dust in the next three days.

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory’s forecasts, affected by strong cold air winds, Beijing’s southern Xinjiang basin, Gansu, Ningxia, central and southeastern Inner Mongolia, central and western Liaoning, western Jilin, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Beijing will be affected by strong cold air winds. , Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, central and western Shandong, central and northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, northern Hubei and other places will have sand or floating dust. Among them, there will be sandstorms in parts of central and western Inner Mongolia.

Many netizens are not calm, and show pictures one after another:

Sand dust + rainfall = mud, this is the first time I have encountered this kind of complex extreme weather.

“Dirty people” and “dirty cars” are constantly swiping screens on Weibo and Moments.

Some netizens jokingly said: The shameless face and the dusty face have never looked like this.

“This sand and dust weather has the characteristics of weak intensity, strong wind, fast moving speed, and large impact area.” Zhang Tao, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, introduced that the sand and dust weather was the same as the two dust weather in March. Both are Mongolia and the western part of Inner Mongolia. The background is also caused by the Mongolian cyclone and cold high-pressure weather system.

The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue blue dust storm warnings at 18:00 on April 15.Image source: Central Meteorological Observatory website

Compared with previous years, this year there seems to be a lot of dust and sand. According to statistics from the China Meteorological Administration, there are indeed more sand and dust weather this year, and there have been 7 occurrences so far.As for whether the dusty weather that the public is worried about will become the norm? Rao Xiaoqin, a senior engineer at the Environmental Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, clearly pointed out that it will not be possible. In the long run, under the background of global warming, the winter monsoon force and cold air activity will weaken, and the dynamic conditions for sand emission will also weaken. According to perennial statistics, the period from spring to March is the season with frequent occurrence of sand and dust, and the process of sand and dust accounts for about 80% of the whole year. It is expected that after late April, with the gradual increase in precipitation and temperature in northern areas, it is conducive to the growth of vegetation, and the underlying surface conditions for sanding will gradually improve, and the impact range and intensity of sand and dust will tend to weaken.

Image source: Weather in China

The picture comes from the Internet

Responsible editor : Li Xiaoxia

Although sweet potatoes are a familiar food, not everyone knows how to choose delicious potatoes. Therefore, when buying potatoes, choose potatoes that are round or elongated, not folded or concave. When gently squeezed, the potato does not feel too stiff. These tubers are usually less fibrous, more starchy, and eaten very sweet. On the surface of the potato, there is still a layer of chalk or soil attached to it, when cut out a thin slice at the top of the potato and melted out, the tubers like this will be very sweet, friable and delicious.

How to make grilled sweet potato with cheese 1

Preliminary treatment

Sweet potatoes are washed and dried.

How to make baked sweet potatoes with cheese

2

Baked potatoes

Place the sweet potatoes in the oven grill. Bake potatoes at 180 degrees C for about 30 minutes or until potatoes are cooked.

How to make baked sweet potatoes with cheese

Use a knife to cut the potatoes in half vertically but not apart, and cut about 2/3 of the potato deep.

How to make baked sweet potatoes with cheese

3

Complete

Add unsalted butter, salty butter and honey in the center.

How to make baked sweet potatoes with cheese

Then sprinkle cheese evenly on top, sprinkle with cinnamon powder or coriander powder.

How to make baked sweet potatoes with cheese

Place the potatoes in the oven, bake at 180 degrees C for 5-7 minutes or until the cheese is completely melted.

How to make baked sweet potatoes with cheese

Finished products:

The grilled sweet potato with cheese butter is a super easy and delicious snack, especially young children will love this dish. Each piece of potato has a sweet and salty taste, and the aroma of cheese is sweet, just looking at it and it is very stimulating. So, if you want a delicious and healthy snack, you can check out the cheese butter baked sweet potato. You can also use an oil-free fryer instead of the oven to make this dish.

To make baked sweet potato with cheese butter, you will cost about 15,000 VND with about 40 minutes of processing time.

Wish you success with this cheese baked sweet potato!

According to the Vietnamese lifestyle