Compared with the fact that funds frequently experienced explosive products and the fund’s net value repeatedly hit new highs in the previous period, only a quarter has passed, but the investment enthusiasm in the fund market has significantly cooled down. At the same time, due to the impact of market adjustments, the performance of common public funds in the first quarter was not satisfactory. According to data, the overall loss of public funds in the first quarter of 2021 was 210.266 billion yuan, and the total loss of equity funds and hybrid funds was close to 300 billion yuan.

The loss of funds is largely related to the market decline in the first quarter. Among them, the ChiNext Index, the leading index in the A-share market, has experienced the largest cumulative drop of nearly 25% since peaking this year. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index, which has a high degree of market attention, has the largest cumulative drop of about 10% during the year.

Although the volatility of the market index in the first quarter was great, the degree of market differentiation did not decrease. Even if the market index showed a rapid decline in the first quarter, it was mainly affected by the sharp decline of the White Horse stock. As a white horse stock with a higher market weight, its irrational adjustment trend will definitely have a greater impact on the market index. pressure. However, on the other hand, for the small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks whose growth rate was low in the previous two years, and even far underperformed the market index during the same period, their overall performance this year has not been inferior, and they basically have a certain degree of resilience. This is also the year The manifestation of the serious market differentiation.

While the fund’s performance was poor and the overall loss occurred in the first quarter, the enthusiasm for fund issuance was also largely affected. At the beginning of the year, we also frequently saw the phenomenon of intensive issuance of hot funds, but now, the enthusiasm for fund issuance has dropped to a freezing point.

Faced with the phenomenon that fund issuance has dropped to a freezing point, it is mainly affected by the market environment. In the context of intensive fund issuance and concentrated fundraising in the early stage, in fact, the homogeneity of the overall fund market is still very obvious. Although there is a lot of private capital in the domestic market, the capital is smart and they are willing to find investment channels with profitable effects. Therefore, in the context of intensive fund issuance, it is easier for star funds to complete their fund-raising goals in a short period of time, but for small and medium-sized funds, the task of fundraising is still relatively arduous, and they may even face failures in issuance. risk.

From the historical performance analysis, when the hot funds frequently appear or the average fund position reaches a historical high, this time often indicates that the market may face the risk of adjustment. On the contrary, when funds frequently fail to issue, or when the average fund position declines rapidly, it often indicates that the market adjustment has come to an end.

Judging from the magnitude of the adjustment, many White Horse stocks have generally fallen between 20% and 30%. This level of decline is not low. Relative to the stock price, it has suddenly fallen from the highest position of the bull market to the vicinity of the bull-bear boundary. However, from the analysis of the adjustment cycle, since the adjustment on February 18 this year, the adjustment time of the A-share market has only been 2 months, which is not enough to indicate that the market adjustment has been fully realized. However, judging from the current level of the major market indexes, the technical bear market has not yet been touched, so for the major market indexes, it can still be defined as a bull market.

Since the market operation trend can still be defined as a bull market environment, the adjustment market in the first quarter of this year can be regarded as a mid-term adjustment market under the bull market. However, from the time of adjustment, it seems to be insufficient, and the future market does not rule out that it will complete this turbulent process in the form of time for space.

With the continuous disclosure of the annual report of the A-share market and the quarterly report, the valuation level of the A-share market will also improve to a certain extent. Judging from the financial report data of listed companies in the first quarter of this year, most listed companies have shown their performance pre-happy, which will also add points to the profitability of A-share listed companies this year, and the corresponding valuation pressure will also decrease.

At this stage, the biggest external risk comes from the end of the Fed’s easing cycle or the trend of in-depth adjustments in the US stock market. Internally, there may be concerns about changes in the policy environment, which may affect the high degree of market rebound. However, due to the better domestic economic fundamentals and the strong profitability improvement capabilities of listed companies, under the background of low stock market valuations, the market downside will also be limited. This year, there is a high probability that they will get out of the turbulent market.

Compared with last year’s quarterly report, this year’s A-share listed company’s quarterly report performance is generally expected to be happy. The reason is that, on the one hand, the base number last year was low, and it is very difficult for performance growth this year compared to the same period last year; on the other hand, the expected economic recovery this year has risen significantly, and the performance recovery of listed companies will also be significantly enhanced.

In fact, due to the special environmental impact in the first quarter of 2020, the data in the quarterly report of listed companies last year did not have much reference. For the market, it is more willing to conduct a comparative analysis with the quarterly report data of 2019. In reality, although many listed companies reported a substantial increase in the performance of this year’s quarterly report compared with the same period last year, there is still a gap compared with the 2019 quarterly report. In other words, if the performance of a listed company in the first quarter of this year is stronger than that of the first quarter of 2019, then for this listed company, the growth advantage is still relatively obvious. On the contrary, it may reflect that the profitability of listed companies is not strong. It is just that compared with the first quarter report of 2020, there has been a repairable performance, and the performance of market prices will naturally be greatly reduced. As a result, this can explain the reason why some listed companies have announced their performance announcements, but the capital market has not bought it.

In addition, there is also a phenomenon that the performance of listed companies is growing well. This year’s quarterly report has not only increased significantly compared with the same period last year, but also showed signs of growth compared with the first quarter of 2019. However, judging from the price performance of the secondary market, it is still being sold off by market funds, which may be related to the high valuation factors of listed companies themselves. Or, in the context of intensified institutional grouping and disagreement, there is pressure for institutions to concentrate on selling.

Since February 18 this year, the A-share market has shown a trend of “killing valuations”, which is mainly concentrated on the white horse stocks in the A-share market. However, from the perspective of these white horse stocks that have been sold by institutions, they mainly have the characteristics of institutional grouping, high valuations and large previous increases. In contrast, blue-chip stocks with low valuations and small gains in the previous period did not show a significant downward trend, becoming the most stable listed company this year.

The white horse stock market’s “killing valuation” is largely related to the anticipation of the inflection point of loose liquidity, which is also a manifestation of partial de-bubble. In addition, as the “anchor” for the valuation and pricing of global core assets, the yields of US 10-year Treasury bonds have soared, which has also accelerated the compression rate of the global core asset valuation premium.

As the white horse stocks occupying a higher weight in the market, this round of irrational decline in the market has a greater impact on the market index. However, due to the impact of many large blue chip stocks, the decline in the market index is not very significant. Since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai Stock Index has performed relatively well in the Shenzhen market.

A shares fell below 3400 points again, and the total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shrank to less than 700 billion yuan, which shows that the investment sentiment in the market has dropped to a freezing point. As the market continues to shrink, it actually heralds that the market’s turning point is approaching. However, from another perspective, if the major A-share market indexes have fallen below the half-year line and the annual line, and the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has fallen below the level of 500 billion yuan, then the A-share market may be declared Step into the bear market again.

Over the years, the A-share market has often been characterized by a bull market for only three years and a bear market for only five years. Whether this market curse can be broken this time, there are still certain unknowns. However, according to the current valuation level of the A-share market and the analysis of the economic environment, the A-share market does not yet have the basis for entering a bear market again. Even according to the relatively weak trend, it is difficult for the A-share market to re-enact the unilateral decline in 2015 and 2018, and it is more likely to complete the process of turbulence and bottoming in the form of time for space.

From the overall analysis, although the decline of the market index will be relatively limited, judging from the rapid decline of the White Horse stock in the last two months, the market is more inclined to partially defoam, rather than defoaming and deleveraging. Market. Compared with 2019 and 2020, the A-share market in 2021 will look more dull, and the structural market has become the main tone of this year’s market.

However, with the experience and lessons learned from the deleveraging market in the second half of 2015, at the level of policy supervision, the attitude of the bull market in the financial market may be cautious. However, under the background of the comprehensive advancement of the registration system, the support of a continuous bull market environment is required. Therefore, from a policy perspective, I do not want the stock market to see a trend of ups and downs. It is more likely that I hope that A shares will go out of 2016 to 2017. Slow Bull Quotes of the Year.