Northern flow 2: Germany receives a request for a building permit, President Biden falls into a ‘dilemma’. (Source: The Brussels Times)

The website Tagesspiegel.de recently published an article titled “A guaranteed gas supply even without the Northern Stream 2 project”.

Accordingly, the Northern Flow 2 gas pipeline project not only supplies gas to Germany and the European Union (EU) but also has strategic implications for the transition of energy, the environment and political geography.

Once again, this has become a central issue in the context of Russia increasing its military forces on the Ukrainian border and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin making his first visit to Germany.

The question is, is this piping system really necessary? What would the consequences be if the pipeline didn’t go into service?

The opinions are mixed

Experts have many different opinions. Some people, like Jens Hobohm from Prognos Institute for Economic Research (Germany), believe that Northern Flow 2 from an energy point of view is necessary and meaningful.

In contrast, expert Claudia Kemfert from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) argues that the answer is “definitely not”.

According to Kemfert, it is not necessary to have any additional infrastructure for the transportation of natural gas from Russia. In addition, the plan to increase natural gas consumption will conflict with the discussed and agreed climate protection goals.

This expert said that there would be no serious problems if the Northern Flow 2 could not be completed and put into operation. If gas from Russia cannot reach Germany through this pipeline system, Germany and Europe will find other energy solutions.

In this regard, new US President Joe Biden has stated that, like his predecessor, Donald Trump, he wants to prevent the completion of the project through the threat of punishing companies involved in the project. .

Still many EU partners believe that, with the assistance of the Northern Flow 2, Germany is acting against the common interests of Europe.

Chairman of the European People’s Party (EPP) group at the European Parliament Manfred Weber said that the Northern Flow 2 project “will definitely not be feasible” if Russian President Vladimir Putin lets the conflict in the region. East Ukraine escalated.

Will the gas supply be at risk then? To answer this question, the forecasts of the amount of gas that Germany and Europe will need in the coming years are central.

From the outset, critics accused the conglomerates that built the pipeline project “inflated” the data on German and European gas demand, making the project indispensable. and completely overwhelmed the opposition.

However, Jens Hobohm believes that this criticism holds true only in previous years, but in recent years, gas consumption in Germany and Europe has increased more than expected due to the need for natural gas. as a bridge for energy transitions.

When countries like Germany give up nuclear power, Poland reduces its dependence on coal, while solar and wind energy are still unable to meet demand, gas is the optimal solution.

According to a study by the Prognos Research Institute, in 2014, the EU consumed 400 billion cubic meters of gas; in 2015, the figure was 419 billion cubic meters and in 2019 it was 470 billion cubic meters.

Consumption figures for 2020 have not been specifically calculated, but according to expert Hobohm, this number is expected to decrease due to the impact of the epidemic of acute respiratory infections Covid-19.

In Germany alone, gas consumption will also increase from 77 billion cubic meters in 2015 to 89 billion cubic meters in 2019, while in 2020 this figure will decrease by about 2.5 percent.

Is that a compelling argument for the construction of the Northern Flow 2 project or would the existing pipes be enough to meet demand?

Is the project really necessary?

If we compare the gas consumption figures for 2019 to 2006, when the first Northern Flow system was planned to be constructed, it can be seen that the consumption volume has never been as high as it was before. Meanwhile, the project construction consortium insists that pipelines are needed as gas consumption will increase continuously. In fact, in 2006, Germany consumed 92 billion cubic meters of gas, while in the EU it was 511 billion cubic meters.

Hobohm adds that Europe’s gas imports from outside Europe depend on how much the continent can produce and to what extent can it meet its own demand?

Currently, the amount of gas produced internally has decreased, partly due to the Netherlands cutting production share faster than planned.

The key point now, experts say, is that the Northern Flow 2 project is still under construction. And Europe has no problems with gas supplies. Whether this project can go into operation or not and never work is an open question.

The later this pipeline is completed, the less necessary it is to be, as the role of natural gas will decline more and more.

Along with that, security policy risks are also very concerned.

First, it is due to the dependence of Europe and Germany on gas from a Russia.

Second, additional risks come from this project because the pipeline runs from Russia through the Baltic Sea and then directly to Germany, not through intermediate states such as Ukraine, Belarus and Poland.

Critics of the project raise two questionable issues.

FirstlyMr. Putin wants free hands to implement his policies with neighboring countries without being afraid to depend on them (when gas exports no longer have to pass through these countries).

Monday, the operation of the Northern Flow 2 system leads to a decrease in the amount of gas flowing through the existing pipes, thereby reducing Ukraine’s income from allowing gas from Russia to transit through its territory. .

The national budget of Kiev will be more than 2 billion euros. Then, the pressure on the EU to increase its aid to Ukraine will grow.

That period of history – the early days of the early state – was marked by a very special name: Rus Kievan (or in Russian as Rus Kievskaya), the origin of both Russian (Russian) and Kiev (Ukrainian capital) landmarks.

Under genghis Khan’s horses

Kievan Rus’s was a grand duke, headed by a grand duke. A rich and prosperous grand district, with a lot of rich profits from the trade in fur, honey, beeswax … Moreover, the chosen geographical location helped Rus Kievan control the three most important trade routes in Eastern Europe: the Volga trade route from the Baltic Sea to the East, the Dnepr trade route from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, and the trade route from the Khazars to the Germanic.

And not only that, the good relations between that grand district and the Byzantine Empire byzantium – the rulers of the Black Sea (especially after Vladimir I chose the Eastern Government according to the model of Byzantium as the state religion) made the status of Kievan Rus’s even more important.

But, after nearly 500 years of existence, that grand district has been completely wiped out on the world map, since 1240. The Khan of Bach Do, the son of Joch, the grandson of Genghis Khan, led a full-on attack on Kievan Rus’s territory in 1237.

But in fact, 14 years earlier, the great victory on the Kalka River that two Mongolian generals – Zhejiang and Speedy Radio – carried out was enough to defeat all the majesty of Kievan Rus’s in particular as well as all the armies on modern Russian – Ukrainian soil in general.

The Mongols – those who brought down the authority of Rus Kievan.

It is worth mentioning that at that time, The Philosopher and Speedy Radio had not set the invasion or occupation of the Eastern Slave territories as the main targets. They were on their way to the West, to pursue the Sultan (emperor) of the Khwaresmia Central Asian Islamic Empire.

On that pursuit, “by the way”, the Mongols destroyed the Iraqi city of Baghdad, ravaged Iran, looted, massacred and massacred Azerbaijan, launched troops into exploration in Georgian soil and ambushed all Georgian troops.

They then crossed the Caucasus, opposite a coalition of North Caucasus tribes. With the separation of cockroaches, Philosopher and Speedy Radio continued to defeat this coalition. The game then pushed them, or rather, pushed the Slave princes to battle against the complete champion army at that time.

As historical researchers noted, the Mongols took advantage of the cavalry’s manoillion, pretending to evacuate to stretch the enemy formation, leading the Kievan Rusan troops to the banks of the Kalka River, the site of the unified Philosopher’s And The Speedy Way. There, the Mongols struck back, slaughtering the majority of the Rus. They pretended to agree to surrender to a small number of princes, but then continued to massacre the disarmed soldiers, to the heads of the imprisoned princes, to both party and watch them suffocate.

After this defeat, Kievan Rus’s barely had the energy to recover, militarily. Triet Villas and Speedy Radio brought troops to the east with Genghis Khan, but left a lot of spies. And so, when Ba do decided to hit Slave land again, he got all the important information.

It can’t be any different. Kievan Rus’s name was removed, forced to depend and tribute to the Mongol Golden Hord, for more than a hundred years. Then, as the Mongol authority deteriorated, the Grand Grand District of Moscow emerged, replacing Kiev’s position, as the capital of the Rus.

Domain history

Therefore, it is no coincidence that in many previous letters, besides Tsar Russia, Ukraine is called Little Russia, while Belarus (Belorussia) bears the name White Russia. These three modern nations, in fact, are a very inseparable block throughout history, three branches of trees buding from a Kievan Rus root.

But, in the beginning, what is Kievan Rus’s? Rus was, in essence, a new people formed during the 9th–19th centuries.

According to records in the historical books of the area, Kievan Rus was officially founded in 880, by a prince named Oleg. With his military talents, Oleg established the dominance of the Kiev princes over every neighboring territory, and even pressuring constantinople, the capital of Byzantium. Thereby, Oleg laid the foundations for his descendants Vladimir I and Yaroslav Wise to build Kievan Rus’s into a prosperous regime.

Kiev – the first capital of the Russians.

The problem is, the more that prosperity fades. This comes from many causes. The first reason was due to the densely landscaped mechanism of the Kiev royal family – when the royals liked most of them to be orthed, so that over time the territories became more and more divided, lacking the necessary concentration as they were at the beginning, while the spirit of sand and isolation increased.

The second reason, the Crusades also caused Rus Kievan to face more challenges, from more powerful conquerors, and therefore, economic resources also declined, leading to the nation’s lag. And the ultimate reason: Kievan Rus’s royal family is constantly divided by countless power struggles.

That is the premedation to follow the changes of history, having escaped the yoke of the Golden Horde, after the polish dosing or being dominated by Poland, after the collisions with central – eastern European powers such as the Grand National Poland – Lithuania, the Kingdom of Prussia or the German Empire … , between the western part of ancient Kievan Rus’s (which became modern Ukraine), is a very fragile line separating it from the eastern part – the darker Slave and the more Russian (Rus) color.

And since nazi armored convoys entered Soviet soil during World War II, the notion of division has become even more pronounced. Then, thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Crimean problem and its follow-up donbass put the children of the same mother in a position to treat each other like enemy sheep.

* At the time of the defeat of the russian princes (Rus), Triet Dao and Speed RealTai had less than two thousand cavalry. Meanwhile, the number of soldiers recorded did not create unity in historical research. The range is estimated at 5,000 (from 30,000 troops to 80,000 troops). In 1237, Speedy Radio assistant Ba do returned, conquering Rus Kievan with 120,000 troops.

* In the years 1054-1224, up to 64 du kingdoms were erected and then collapsed, as many as 293 princes made demands for the inheritance of the throne and their disputes led to 83 civil wars. The problem became more complicated at the end of the 11th century and brought the grand district into chaos. On the initiative of Vladimir Monomakh II in 1097, the first Federal Council of Kievan Rus was met in the city of Liubech near Chernigov with the main purpose of for the war parties to negotiate. However, this only creates a necessary silence.