Interview

Fünf Jahre nach Brexit-Votum “Über Nacht war alles anders”

Stand: 23.06.2021 03:57 Uhr

Vor fünf Jahren fand das Referendum über Großbritanniens EU-Mitgliedschaft statt. Einen Tag später hieß es: “We’re out!” London-Korrespondentin Annette Dittert über den Schock nach dem Votum und die Folgen, die zunehmend sichtbar werden. tagesschau.de: Dass das Referendum über einen EU-Austritt Großbritanniens 2016 wirklich zugunsten der Brexiteers ausgehen würde, hielten hierzulande viele bis zuletzt für unwahrscheinlich – umso ungläubiger fielen die Blicke am “Morgen danach” aus. Wie erinnern Sie sich an den Moment der Wahrheit in Großbritannien? Annette Dittert: Am Morgen nach dem Referendum war ich im Zug von Edinburgh nach London. Das Abteil war voller Menschen, alle seltsam ruhig; man spürte eine gewisse Schockstarre. Als mein Telefon klingelte und sie mich Deutsch sprechen hörten, wurde es plötzlich ganz still – und als ich auflegte, brach eine junge Frau mir gegenüber in Tränen aus: “Es tut mir so leid, es war nicht unsere Absicht, dass Sie jetzt wieder nach Deutschland zurückmüssen!” Auf die Idee, dass sich auch für mich jetzt einiges ändern würde, war ich da selbst noch gar nicht gekommen. Und es ging so weiter an diesem seltsamen Tag. Als ich zu Hause ankam, stand auf meinem Hausboot ein großer Blumenstrauß mit einer Notiz der Nachbarn: “Please don’t go!” – “Bitte geh nicht!” So wurde mir allmählich klar, was der Brexit für mich und die anderen EU-Bürger bedeuten würde: dass wir in Großbritannien ab jetzt nicht mehr so einfach und selbstverständlich “dazugehören” würden.

Zur Person Annette Dittert berichtet für die ARD aus London – erst als Korrespondentin, zwischenzeitlich als Autorin, unter anderem im Videoblog “London Calling”, und seit 2019 wieder als Korrespondentin und Studioleiterin.

In den Wochen danach änderte sich dann das Lebensgefühl auf der Insel. Für mich war das oft so, als ob plötzlich ein dunkler Schatten über dem Land liege. Man spürte die Teilung des Landes, die Wut und den Ärger der “Remainers”, die für den EU-Verbleib gestimmt hatten. Der Triumph der anderen, die aber noch gar nicht wirklich wussten, was sie mit diesem Brexit nun anfangen sollten, war leiser, aber für viele “Remainers” dennoch schwer zu ertragen. Familien begannen sich zu zerstreiten, einige meiner Nachbarn sprechen bis heute kaum mehr miteinander, und ich habe auch selbst einige Freunde verloren. Es war einfach über Nacht alles anders. Und dieses freundliche, fröhliche, alle willkommen heißende England, das noch 2012 die Olympischen Sommerspielen zu einem solchen Fest hatte werden lassen, verschwand in den Jahren danach immer mehr. tagesschau.de : Waren die Briten denn im ersten Moment nicht um sich selbst besorgt – oder auch hocherfreut, falls sie für den Brexit gestimmt hatten? Dittert : In den Straßen von London hat an diesem Tag niemand gejubelt. Selbst die “Brexiteers” waren ein bisschen verblüfft und schockiert, denn sie konnten selbst nicht glauben, dass sie das geschafft haben. Boris Johnson war an dem Tag erst einmal verschwunden. Er hatte, glaube ich, selbst nicht mit dem Ausgang gerechnet und wollte lediglich durch ein starkes Abschneiden beim Referendum seine Position innerhalb der Tory-Partei stärken. In der allgemeinen Verblüffung wunderte sich auch kaum jemand darüber, dass Premier David Cameron das Handtuch warf – auch wenn das im Nachhinein einfach unverantwortlich seinem Land gegenüber war, das er so sicher in die tiefste Krise seit der Nachkriegszeit gestürzt hat.

Jubel auf einer Wahlparty der Brexit-Kampagne Leave.eu am 23.06.2016. Bild: dpa

Lange Gesichter hingegen bei Unterstützern der “Stronger In”-Kampagne gegen einen EU-Austritt in der Londoner Royal Festival Hall. Bild: AFP

“Ganze Industriezweige kämpfen ums Überleben”

tagesschau.de : Auf den Schock folgten zähe, jahrelange Verhandlungen über ein Austrittsabkommen. Seit dem 1. Mai 2021 ist der Partnerschaftsvertrag mit der EU endgültig in Kraft. Welche Veränderungen sind nun im Alltag spürbar? Dittert: Vieles ist wesentlich komplizierter geworden. Wenn wir zum Beispiel im ARD-Studio London EU-Bürger beschäftigen wollen, müssen wir für sie ein Arbeitsvisum beantragen. Das ist ein Riesenaufwand und auch teuer. Kleinere Firmen können sich das kaum mehr leisten. Und auch umgekehrt ist es für die Briten schwieriger, von hier aus noch für längere Zeit auf den europäischen Kontinent zu reisen oder dort zu studieren, weil die britische Regierung außerdem die Mitgliedschaft im Erasmus-Programm beendet hat. Gerade für die Jüngeren ist das bitter. Zur Zeit merkt man das noch gar nicht so, die Pandemie verdeckt viel. Aber diese Brüche mit Kontinentaleuropa werden zunehmend spürbar werden, wenn die Reiseeinschränkungen erst einmal vorbei sind. Erst dann, glaube ich, wird den Briten so richtig bewusst werden, was das neue Verhältnis zur EU für sie bedeutet.

tagesschau.de: Aus Teilen der britischen Wirtschaft ist ja schon zu hören, dass ihnen das ausgehandelte Brexit-Abkommen bislang zum Nachteil gereicht.

Dittert: Ja, das sind ganze Industriezweige, die derzeit wirklich ums Überleben kämpfen. Vor allem kleinere Betriebe kommen mit den komplizierten Zollformularen einfach nicht zurecht. Gerade die Fischer wurden vor dem Brexit ja sehr umworben: dass sie dann mehr fischen könnten, weil sie nicht mehr die Gewässer mit den EU-Fischern teilen müssten. Nicht gesagt wurde ihnen, dass sie ihren Fisch dann nicht mehr verkaufen können, da die Exporte in die EU durch aufwändigen Papierkram beim Zoll jetzt für sie kaum mehr möglich sind. Die britische Regierung lässt die britischen Fischer bislang weitestgehend allein damit – und viele werden das nicht überleben. Ähnlich trifft es Betriebe, die auf EU-Arbeitnehmer angewiesen sind, die jetzt nicht mehr kommen können. Vor allem die Gastronomie in London und Umgebung. Aber auch hier ist das noch nicht im öffentlichen Bewusstsein angekommen, da viele Hotels und Restaurants noch geschlossen haben. Aber nach der Pandemie wird das spürbarer werden. Neue Handelsverträge auszuhandeln wird viele Jahre dauern, und bis die Loslösung von der EU dann wirklich positive Effekte für die britische Wirtschaft zeigen könnte, wenn überhaupt, werden viele, viele Jahre vergehen.

“Die meisten haben sich damit abgefunden”

tagesschau.de: Wie präsent sind da die Stimmen der glühenden Brexiteers noch?

Dittert: In der Nacht vom 31. Januar, als der Brexit vollzogen wurde, gab es eine kleine Jubelfeier auf dem Platz vor dem Parlament. Die war aber sehr schnell wieder vorbei. Johnson ging nicht einmal vor die Tür der 10 Downing Street – und auch sonst wollte sich in dieser Nacht außer Nigel Farage keiner so recht mit den Brexit-Anhängern sehen lassen. Die “Remainers” saßen währenddessen zu Hause; viele, die ich gut kenne, haben das bis heute schlecht verkraftet. Die meisten haben sich damit abgefunden, aber das Land bleibt gespalten in dieser Frage. Ich würde sagen, mindestens die Hälfte der Briten ist nach wie vor sehr unglücklich über die Entscheidung und ihre Folgen, und ich vermute auch, dass das so bleiben wird.

Das Gesicht von Nigel Farage prangte eins auf einem Wahlkampfbus für den Brexit. Nach dem Votum gab der UKIP-Chef schnell seinen Rücktritt bekannt (Archivbild vom 26.05.2016). Bild: AFP

tagesschau.de: Was wird der zunehmende Unmut für den heutigen Premier Johnson bedeuten? Dittert: Es wird interessant, inwieweit es ihm weiter gelingt, den Briten seinen harten Brexit als Erfolg zu verkaufen. Bisher hat er die Nachteile für die genannten Industriezweige stets bestritten, Fragen von Journalisten dazu wischt er vom Tisch oder beantwortet sie erst gar nicht. Und, wie gesagt, die Pandemie verdeckt im Moment noch viele der negativen Brexit-Folgen. Wenn das vorbei ist, dann wird es interessant, ob die Stimmung doch noch kippt. Ich bin da allerdings ein bisschen skeptisch. Denn dazu bräuchte es eine starke Opposition – und die gibt es derzeit nicht. Die Labour-Partei hat ja im Dezember 2019 mit für den Brexit-Deal gestimmt. Damit haben sie sich zu “Komplizen” gemacht und können den Deal und seine Folgen für die britische Wirtschaft deshalb jetzt nicht so hart kritisieren, wie es eine Opposition eigentlich müsste.

“Brüche zwischen den vier Nationen verschärft”

tagesschau.de: Wie sind die Aussichten, dass sich aus den anderen Landesteilen Großbritanniens Widerstand formieren wird? Schottland etwa macht aus seinen Unabhängigkeitswünschen ja keinen Hehl…

Dittert: Der Brexit zerstört momentan vieles – ob er auch schöpferische Wirkung entfaltet, wird sich zeigen. Aber er hat vor allem Fliehkräfte im fragilen Gebilde des Vereinigten Königreichs freigesetzt. Die Schotten sind eine zutiefst sozialdemokratische Gesellschaft, die Johnsons zunehmend von englischem Nationalismus geprägten Regierungsstil skeptisch gegenüberstehen. Andererseits ist die Unabhängigkeit für die Schotten nach dem Brexit sehr viel schwieriger und komplizierter geworden: Sie hätten dann ja eine EU-Außengrenze quer durch die Insel. Bei der engen Verflechtung zwischen Schottland und England würde das jetzt sehr kompliziert.

Auch in Wales ist die Unabhängigkeitsbewegung stärker geworden, wenn auch nicht so stark wie in Schottland. Und in Nordirland gibt es durch das verhandelte Abkommen jetzt ebenfalls immer größere Probleme: Johnson hat die Grenze ja in die Irische See verlegt und dadurch Nordirland im Grunde vom britischen Festland abgetrennt. Das verschärft die Spannungen zwischen den verschiedenen Fraktionen in Nordirland.

Ganz generell kann man deshalb sagen: Der Brexit hat die Brüche, die es zwischen den vier Nationen vorher auch schon gab, verschärft – und es ist nicht mehr unvorstellbar, dass das Vereinigte Königreich in seiner jetzigen Form tatsächlich irgendwann auseinanderfällt. Die Fragen stellte Jasper Steinlein, tagesschau.de.

German companies and Brexit “A big disappointment”

Status: 16.06.2021 5:08 p.m.

New customs controls, more bureaucracy, additional costs: Brexit is causing many German companies to consider whether they can still maintain locations in Great Britain. By Aylin Dülger, tagesschau.de Little of what Heller makes stays in England. The company from Nürtingen near Stuttgart operates worldwide. The mechanical engineering company exports components that are installed in machines for milling engine and metal parts at the UK site of Redditch in the county of Worcestershire. From there they reach end customers in many different industries. Both export and import are part of day-to-day business. Brexit will put this business to the test. “For a long time we clung to the illusion that in the end a solution based on partnership would emerge,” says Heller boss Klaus Winkler. Instead, the Brexit agreements created a very bureaucratic construct.

05/31/2021

The truck takes eight days instead of three

Like many of the small and medium-sized companies that form the backbone of the export-oriented German economy, Heller is now struggling with additional customs controls and bureaucracy. “We have a completely different form war,” says Winkler. “A truck that we send from Nürtingen to England now takes between eight and ten days. We used to do it in three days.”

Klaus Winkler, Head of the Heller Group: “Long indulged in an illusion” The Chamber of Commerce and Industry also moved in April British Chamber of Commerce in Germany a first sobering Brexit balance sheet . Two thirds of the companies surveyed assessed the effects of the new foreign trade rules with Great Britain more negatively than expected at the beginning of the year. More than three quarters of all respondents reported difficulties in moving goods. And almost every fifth company has therefore decided to completely stop foreign trade with the island.

05/12/2021

Fear of withdrawal

For Heller, completely forgoing foreign trade with Great Britain is a horror scenario that the company is trying to avert. Business has been slowed down enormously, said Winkler. “We had to convey to our colleagues in Great Britain in a credible manner that we do not intend to question the location in Redditch, but rather to preserve it if it can somehow be done.” In order not to jeopardize its competitiveness, the special machine manufacturer will have to constantly reassess the situation in the near future. Because if the products become too expensive, customers threaten to turn to competitors – the location could no longer be held.

04/28/2021

Smaller companies more affected

Smaller companies in particular suffered from the additional administrative effort, according to Ulrich Hoppe, head of the German-British Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AHK) in London. That makes it no longer economically viable for many to serve the British market. “The medium-sized and large companies that are active in the United Kingdom are of course also struggling with the additional effort, but they can cushion it much better,” explains Hoppe. Despite the additional costs, the British market will remain very important due to its strategic importance. In 2020, Germany exported goods worth 66.85 billion euros to Great Britain. That was around 5.5 percent of total exports. This made the United Kingdom the fifth most important export market for the Federal Republic of Germany. So that German companies do not leave the island in the future, Heller boss Winkler would like to make goods traffic easier . He is hoping for less bureaucracy on the part of the English authorities, so that the additional effort can be reduced to a more bearable level. For the time being, however, disillusionment dominates. Even if Heller wants to stick to its British location: “Overall, Brexit is a big disappointment for us.”

After Brexit Great Britain and Australia sign trade pact

Status: 15.06.2021 12:07 p.m. Great Britain and Australia have agreed on a free trade agreement. The deal will ensure further growth, announced the government in London. But there are also skeptical voices. For the first time since Brexit, Great Britain has signed a completely renegotiated trade agreement. Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a free trade agreement with his Australian colleague Scott Morrison. The heads of government have cleared the last stumbling blocks out of the way in the past few days, said both sides.

Boost for 3.5 million employees?

Accordingly, manufacturers of cars and whiskey would benefit from duty-free, the government announced in London. Young Britons under 35 should be given more freedom to live and work in Australia. Industries with around 3.5 million employees in the UK received a boost. The contract will ensure further growth. “Today marks a new dawn in the UK’s relationship with Australia, one that is fueled by our shared history and values,” said Johnson. Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan described the deal as a “gain for jobs, businesses, free trade”.

Exemption from duty for whiskey, among other things Image: dpa

“Good news for both countries”

In 2020, UK-Australian trade was worth £ 13.9 billion – around € 16.15 billion. The UK is Australia’s fifth largest trading partner. Before the British became part of the EU and with it the internal market in 1973, Australia was even the most important trading partner. Economist Gabriele Suder from RMIT University in Melbourne welcomed the British-Australian deal. This is good news for both countries. After all, it is the first agreement in the post-Brexit era. She expects the deal to bring the Australian economy 1.3 billion Australian dollars (around 830 million euros) annually. Other experts believe the pact will be more important to Britain. Australia has a strong trade focus on Asia.

analysis 04/27/2021

04/28/2021

British farmers fear imports

However, the pact with Australia is controversial in Great Britain. Farmers fear a flood of imports of lamb and beef as soon as customs duties cease to exist. This could affect British sheep and cattle farmers. The government in London stressed that the deal included ceilings on duty-free imports over the next 15 years, as well as quotas and other safeguards. Farmers’ associations called on parliament to closely monitor the contract. According to Australian data, the country’s farmers will benefit from the agreement.

Treaties with dozens of states

Great Britain is currently repositioning itself after Brexit. Since the UK left the EU, it has signed trade deals with dozens of countries. However, these were always copies of the pre-Brexit EU treaties with these states.

report March 29, 2021

From Constantin Röse, ARD stock exchange studio Five years: That’s how long EU and British diplomats have been fighting for Brexit. With the Vote in the European Parliament the agreement is now closed – but with a clear warning from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that this agreement has “teeth”. That sounds more like a threat than restarting relationships.

Northern Ireland contentious issue

So is the ongoing EU-UK dispute going on? No, says Jörg Krämer, Commerzbank’s chief economist: “We’ve seen the big brawl a long time ago. But there are still open issues.” For example the situation in Northern Ireland: The EU complains about violations of the UK against the exit agreement. This actually guarantees open borders between the British province and the EU member Ireland. However, the UK doesn’t like this. However, Krämer considers it unlikely that the EU will react to this with punitive tariffs. “I do not believe that this conflict will escalate to such an extent that the European Union will introduce tariffs on the movement of goods,” says the economist, because: “The European Union would cut its own flesh.” If you look at the total exports of the EU to Great Britain, they did not decrease in January.

Bureaucratic hurdles deter companies

The picture is very different in the case of German-British trade relations. German exports to Great Britain collapsed by 30 percent in January compared to the previous year. The mood in German companies is correspondingly bad. Customs formalities in particular are a thorn in their side for companies that want to export goods to the island, explains Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Bank. “You were in part surprised by all these bureaucratic hurdles that have now been built up by the fact that Great Britain is no longer a member of the European internal market.” This leads to higher costs and more bureaucracy, according to Brzeski, and that scares some companies off. According to a survey by the British Chamber for Commerce in Germany and the consulting firm KPMG, 17 percent decided to stop foreign trade with Great Britain completely because it is no longer worthwhile for them.

Still many questions unanswered

In this divorce, however, it also becomes clear that many issues are still unresolved: What is the future of deep-sea fishing? Or how do the EU and Great Britain deal with financial services? Economist Brzeski does not yet believe in a quick relaxation between the mainland and the island. “In the coming months – probably also in the course of this entire year and also next year – we will see the negative consequences of Brexit rather than being able to talk about new opportunities here.” If anyone sees opportunities, it is the Brexit hardliners. You like to refer to the strong economic forecasts. According to this, economic growth in Great Britain is expected to be around six percent this year, in Germany, for example, only around 3.5 percent. The British economy owes this primarily to the vaccination success in the country – and by no means to Brexit. You will only really be able to see the consequences of this after the pandemic.

The European Parliament has announced its decision to ratify the Brexit trade pact with Great Britain. As expected, the Bureau agreed to the contract, said Parliament President David Sassoli in Brussels. The contract, which has only been applied provisionally so far, can therefore come into force on May 1st.

A long struggle comes to an end

The trade and cooperation agreement received an overwhelming majority of 660 of the 697 votes cast, ending the tough and nerve-wracking struggle for the UK to exit the EU in an orderly manner. The aim was to prevent a hard break with legal uncertainty and chaos at the borders. Specifically, the contract includes rules on fishing as well as cooperation on energy, transport, justice, police and many other topics. The pact gives Great Britain access to the EU internal market. In return, the EU demanded fair competition – the so-called level playing field. What is meant are the same environmental, social and subsidy standards.

The issue of fisheries only provisionally resolved

An important sticking point in the negotiations was the access of EU fishermen to British waters. A transition period of five and a half years was agreed, during which EU fishermen are allowed to fish 25 percent less in British waters. This should then be determined annually. In the parliamentary debate on Tuesday, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recognized the contract and promoted its acceptance. The agreement protects the rights of the citizens, prevents significant breaks for the economy, safeguards the EU internal market and EU standards.

From Stephan Ueberbach, ARD studio Brussels It doesn’t happen very often: the European Parliament thanked Michel Barnier, who led the Brexit negotiations on behalf of the EU, with a standing ovation. With today’s decision, a tough and often nerve-wracking struggle comes to an end after more than four years. The divorce between Great Britain and the European Union is thus perfect. Yet Europeans and British have much more in common than what separates them, said Barnier at the meeting.

Trouble over British breach of contract

The majority of parliamentarians also still consider Brexit to be a serious mistake. And the anger over Boris Johnson’s administration runs deep. It has unilaterally suspended the agreed goods controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. From the EU perspective, this is a clear breach of the withdrawal agreement that Johnson negotiated and signed personally. “British diplomacy used to be a symbol of credibility for me,” emphasized Manfred Weber, leader of the European Christian Democrats. “But when we see how Boris Johnson behaves in Northern Ireland, the message is: ‘What do I care about my signature!’ This is the new Great Britain that we have by our side as a partner. ”

“This contract has real teeth”

The trade and partnership agreement expressly provides for sanctions in the event of violations. For example, in the dispute over goods controls, the EU could impose punitive tariffs on certain products from Great Britain. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants to do that too, if necessary. “This treaty has real teeth,” she said, thereby also soliciting parliamentary approval. “This agreement protects European citizens and their rights, it protects European interests and the internal market and it maintains the high standards of labor rights, environmental protection, tax transparency and state aid,” said von der Leyen.

MPs are campaigning for approval

The vast majority of MPs see it that way too. The Austrian social democrat Andreas Schieder said:

This post-Brexit agreement is a strong foundation to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit for employees, for the environment and also for the economy. And it’s not the end, it’s a beginning too.

Consent or “no deal”

Despite all the criticism of the British government – in the late evening vote, the parliamentarians will grudgingly clear the way for the agreement as things stand – because the alternative would be a “no deal”, an unregulated chaos Brexit when the agreed transition period ends of the month expires. This is one of the reasons why the Luxembourgish Christian Democrat Christoph Hansen calls on his colleagues to agree to the trade and partnership agreement. It is the “only sensible decision” for citizens and businesses.

From Notker Blechner, tagesschau.de When looking at the number of financial firms that have relocated from London to another EU country, the Irish capital, Dublin, has the edge. 135 companies have relocated their headquarters there. This is the result of a study by the New Financial think tank.

More companies went to Paris and Luxembourg than to Frankfurt

The second biggest beneficiary of Brexit was Paris. 102 British financial service providers emigrated to the French capital. 95 companies went to Luxembourg. Only 63 companies dared to move from London to Frankfurt, including Nomura, UBS, Standard Chartered and parts of several major US banks. According to the study by New Financial, a total of more than 400 financial companies – banks, insurers, asset managers and other financial service providers – relocated their businesses from the British capital to EU countries. The authors of the study anticipate that the actual number will be even higher and that even more British financial service providers will relocate their activities in the future. “We are only at the end of the start of Brexit,” says the full-bodied study.

Frankfurt will benefit the most in the long term

In the long term, however, Frankfurt am Main is the big winner – in terms of the reallocation of assets, say the authors of the study. According to the investigation, assets worth more than £ 1 trillion (1.15 trillion euros) have been transferred from London to the EU so far. According to New Financial Paris, Paris should be ahead in terms of the number of newly created jobs. So far, conservatively estimated, a good 7,400 jobs have been relocated from London to the EU, speculate the authors of the study. That number will continue to rise, they prophesy.

3,500 to 10,000 new jobs?

In other studies in the past, the Frankfurt financial center came off better. For example, the Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) sees Frankfurt as the biggest beneficiary of Brexit. Helaba predicted that almost 1,500 new jobs would be created in the Main metropolis by the end of 2022. Overall, Brexit would create 3,500 additional jobs in Frankfurt. Hubertus Väth from the Frankfurt Main Finance location initiative even expects 10,000 new jobs to be created in the Frankfurt financial center thanks to Brexit. According to BaFin, almost 60 licenses have so far been granted to financial institutions and insurance groups that have relocated their headquarters from London to Frankfurt. “That is more than many would have believed,” says lobby representative Väth from Frankfurt Main Finance. The major US banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, the major British bank Standard Chartered and the Japanese financial giant Mizuho have chosen the German financial metropolis for their European headquarters. In the first wave of moves, mainly dealers and sales experts from banks came to the EU from London. Investment bankers are likely to follow in a second wave. Frankfurt is an attractive location because of its relatively affordable rents compared to Paris or Luxembourg and its green surroundings.

US President Joe Biden is determined to improve relations with European allies. (Source: Reuters)

Former President Donald Trump changed America – less than his supporters wanted, but more than the opposition had hoped.

However, over the past four years, it’s not just America that has changed. America’s allies are also changing. This makes it impossible to return transatlantic relations back to an earlier period.

The unique relationship between the US and European countries is seen by observers as not going back to the way it once was, even though Mr. Biden has become President.

Former President Donald Trump is not alone.

The first reason that the relationship between the US and the European Union (EU) is difficult to return to the past originated from before Mr. Trump took office.

That’s Brexit. For decades, the UK was the first US partner to think of in Europe. London is also the most reliable and effective support partner on the “old continent”, sometimes even accepting against the bloc’s general policy.

Now that the UK leaves the EU, the United States needs to invest more time and resources in building relationships with EU politicians and institutions.

After all, defense and intelligence relations with Britain are still of great value to the United States, causing Washington to be concerned. Besides, the UK is still the closest partner to the US in terms of geopolitical issues such as Russia and China.

On the other hand, the administration of President Biden concurred with the assessment of the EU and Ireland on the challenges Brexit brought to Northern Ireland.

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU relations poses challenges for the US, especially when London and Brussels will have many disagreements in the coming period.

The second reason for the split between the US and EU is the common value system, affecting policy choices.

Economically, the presidency of President Trump has made American politicians “awaken”, realizing they need to work towards solving their own problems. Democrats demand increased support for workers, as well as for industry.

Although the EU also takes such measures, this could provoke the EU to oppose what it calls “unfair competition”.

In addition, EU priorities in the twenty-first century such as climate change or digital services could lead to new tariffs or regulations. With different approaches to digital privacy or freedom of speech, the common value systems between the US and Europe are increasingly distant.

However, the biggest difference lies in the geopolitics, namely the friend-foe perspective.

During the Cold War, when the Soviet Union was a common enemy, the transatlantic relationship was arguably the most sustainable.

Currently, some European countries and politicians have come closer to Moscow, considering it as an important energy partner. Others want to ignore acts of aggression, or actions that the EU deems a violation of Russian human rights.

But China is the real problem. The US sees China as a major competitor in both economic and security terms.

Meanwhile, while China can be viewed as a security threat, Europe still looks forward to economic cooperation with Beijing, reflected in the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment signed in December 2020.

America and Europe will find it difficult to cooperate with each other when it is impossible to even determine which are friends and enemies.

If not united by a common threat, the transatlantic relationship will split.

European leaders can breathe when a “traditional” President like Mr. Biden is elected. However, the departure of Mr. Trump does not create a solid foundation for this long-standing relationship.

The transatlantic alliance is on the decline, as is the Western-led world order. The two sides need to understand this soon to start building a new architecture, thereby forming a stronger bilateral relationship.

(According to Nikkei Asia)