At that time, Red Bull China was already a leader in the functional beverage market, but the retail price of 6 yuan was relatively high. For many young consumers, the demand was not fully met. Lin Muqin saw the pain points in the market and hit the price tag. The market price of Dongpeng specialty beverages was only about 3 yuan. In 2012, as a model market for Dongpeng Special Drinks, Dongguan’s sales also exceeded the 100 million yuan mark, starting a national journey from then on. In terms of advertising, Lin Muqin once again learned from Red Bull. It just so happened that in 2013, Red Bull changed the slogan, “Drink Red Bull when tired and sleepy” was abandoned, and this advertisement that has been running for 8 years has already been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. As a result, Dongpeng then issued the slogan “You must wake up and fight when you are young! Drink Dongpeng special drink when tired and sleepy”. At the same time, it signed Nicholas Tse as the brand spokesperson for Dongpeng special drink, officially with a younger brand image. Promote to the whole country. And Dongpeng Special Drink was once regarded as a “Red Bull imitator” because of its advertising slogan and packaging. Of course, Lin Muqin has also broken out his own advertising and marketing routines, such as bottle cap scanning, dust caps on bottles, and “Band-Aid” advertisements on video websites, all of which were pioneered by Dongpeng Special Drink. Lin Muqin said, “We are thinking about and studying the advertising cases of each brand in the video website every day, including the source of each advertising creative and the original intention of advertising, what kind of advertising format can resonate with consumers, and whether there are other more Good presentation method. Only by personally researching and analyzing in-depth can we dig out the truly effective forms of advertising and the truly valuable advertising content.” In 2018, Dongpeng Special Drink also replaced Red Bull as a sponsor of the Chinese Super League and increased its sports marketing efforts. In 2021, Dongpeng Special Drink will once again implant the brand in the movie “Chinatown Detective 3” to continue to seize the young consumer market. At present, Dongpeng Special Drink has become a brand second only to Red Bull in the market share of energy drinks. In 2020, the company achieved total operating income of 4.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 810 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. Among them, energy drink revenue accounted for 80.5%. Dongpeng Beverage has now formed production bases in Guangdong, Anhui, Guangxi and other major regions across the country, with more than 1,000 distributors and a sales network covering approximately 1.2 million terminal stores across the country. The rise of Dongpeng Special Drinks, in addition to the company’s own factors, is also inseparable from the boosting role of industry development. In recent years, people’s attention to food safety and health issues has led to a further increase in the market share of functional beverages. It is reported that from 2014 to 2019, the compound growth rate of energy drink sales will reach 15%, which is one of the fastest-growing sub-categories in beverages, which benefits well-known brands in the industry. Compared with the strong development of Dongpeng Special Drink, Red Bull’s development momentum in recent years does not seem to be very strong. Public information shows that in 2015 and before Red Bull’s market share in the field of functional beverages was as high as 80%, but it began to shrink in 2016, and it has fallen to 54.90% by 2020. After years of trademark disputes, Red Bull’s market share has gradually become a rising star. Cannibalize. Public information shows that my country’s energy drink industry has developed over the years. In addition to Red Bull and Dongpeng Special Drinks, many brands including Lehu, Physique Energy, Rejuvenation, and Qili have joined the competition. At the same time, with the rapid development of the industry, in recent years, large companies such as Uni-President, Amway and Yili have launched their own, which has intensified industry competition. However, many investors believe that Dongpeng Beverage has gradually distanced itself from the third and fourth largest competitors and established a brand moat. In addition, energy drinks still maintain a high growth rate of market demand, which has also led to the enthusiasm of Dongpeng Beverage’s share price. Today, with the listing of Dongpeng Beverages, Lin Muqin has become another rich man in the beverage industry. Data shows that Lin Muqin directly holds 49.74% of the company’s shares. Based on the total market value, he holds a stock market value of up to 45.7 billion yuan. In Lin Muqin’s view, the company’s listing is just another new starting point. Let us look forward to the future development of Dongpeng Special Drink

Located in New York, America’s famous Wall Street bull is a popular destination that millions of tourists visit each year. When coming here, many tourists pose and take pictures with the giant bronze bull located on Wall Street. This bronze bull is a symbol of Wall Street created by Italian-American painter and sculptor Arturo Di Modica. Mr. Modica left Italy for New York, USA to live in the 1970s. Here, he made a living by opening a sculpture studio on Grand Street (now in the SoHo area of ​​Manhattan). After seeing the US stock market crash in 1987, Mr. Modica came up with the idea of ​​creating a bronze bull to inspire people to get through tough times together. At the same time, through the bronze cow statue, Mr. Modica wants to praise the perseverance and patience of American businessmen. Mr. Modica chose the image of a bull to sculpt because it symbolizes a prosperous and strong market. Therefore, Mr. Modica spent 360,000 USD to mold and shape the bronze cow. After 2 years of hard work, he finished the bronze bull in October 1989. The copper bull that Mr. Modica created is “huge” in size when it is about 3.3m tall and weighs up to 35 tons. To surprise everyone, Mr. Modica and 3 friends used a truck to take the bull to Wall Street at midnight on December 15, 1989. They put it next to the Christmas tree in front of the New York Stock Exchange. The next morning, people were amazed and delighted to see the bronze bull in the middle of Wall Street. However, employees of the New York Stock Exchange were not very pleased with this special gift. So, the New York Stock Exchange contacted the police to have them take the bronze cow to another location on December 16. After learning that the bronze cow had been moved, many residents expressed their regret and petitioned the authorities to bring the cow back to the city center. Listening to the opinions of the people, the New York Department of Parks and Recreation decided to place Mr. Modica’s bronze bull on Broadway, north of Bowling Green and below the intersection on Morris Street. This location is about 2 blocks from the New York Stock Exchange. Since then, the bronze bull on Wall Street has become a famous symbol that many tourists come to when visiting New York. Invite readers to watch the video: Mr. Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States. Source: THDT1.

Produced | Sohu Technology

Author | Zhang Yating

Edit | Yang Jin

Huawei, which has always been prudent and prudent, has recently made intensive adjustments to its cloud business, which has aroused heated discussions in the outside world. On April 9, Huawei announced the appointment of Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun as Chairman of Huawei Cloud, and Huawei Consumer BG CEO Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO.

A week ago, on April 2, Huawei announced the abolition of Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) BG. On March 30, Huawei just appointed 11 members including Zhang Pingan (formerly President of Consumer Business Cloud Services) as Cloud&AI BG managers; Zhang Pingan was appointed as Cloud BU President.

At this point, the structural adjustment of the cloud business has come to an end in the turmoil. The latest Xu Zhijun + Yu Chengdong, the luxurious lineup of two generations of Huawei’s Titans, also made the speculation that “Huawei Cloud will develop independently or be sold” spread like wildfire. Some insiders bluntly said that “this is the management configuration of a listed company.”

At the Huawei Analyst Conference on April 12, Xu Zhijun gave a formal response to related hot topics. He pointed out that the abolition of cloud and computing BG is to focus on developing cloud business, increase the proportion of software service revenue, and reduce dependence on hardware.

As we all know, Huawei started by making communication equipment, and hardware revenue has always been the main driver. In recent years, the revenue of consumer business, which is dominated by mobile phones, has supported about 50% of its revenue. However, the blow of the ban made Huawei have to think about how to go on leaving the chip?

The cloud business is regarded by Huawei as a key “chess piece” for increasing software revenue. Guowei, the chief product official of Huawei Cloud, told Sohu Technology that this year’s cloud business will definitely continue to grow in three digits. On the one hand, Huawei attaches great importance to the cloud business, and customer demand is also great. According to official disclosures, Huawei Cloud will grow by 168% in 2020.

It should be noted that even if the cloud and computing BG has been withdrawn, the current cloud and computing entire sales and channel system remains consistent. Shi Jilin, President of Huawei Cloud and Computing Global Marketing and Sales Service Department, told media including Sohu Technology, “The future sales and channel system will be optimized and adjusted accordingly as business development needs.”

“The shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience”

Compared with mainstream cloud vendors, Huawei Cloud is almost 10 years behind. Amazon AWS cloud computing service was commercialized in 2006, Alibaba Cloud was formally established in 2009, Tencent Cloud was commercialized in 13 years, and Huawei only established Cloud BU in 17 years and officially entered the public cloud.

“It is necessary to make up for shortcomings but also to find ways to surpass other manufacturers.” Fang Guowei told Sohu Technology that the biggest challenge for Huawei’s cloud business is that the business started relatively late. .

He pointed out that it took Huawei almost four years to go through the product development process of other manufacturers for about ten years. “We started to do public cloud in 17 years and developed more than 200 products in almost four years. The number of products is about the same as that of other vendors.”

The speed of HUAWEI CLOUD’s development should not be underestimated. According to Canalys’s Q4 China Cloud Service Market Report last year, Alibaba Cloud occupies an absolute leading position with a 40% share, Huawei Cloud ranks second with a 17% market share, and Tencent ranks third with a 15% share.

Dai Mingzhe, an analyst at Head Leopard Research Institute, told Sohu Technology that because of its first-mover advantage, Alibaba Cloud has always maintained the first place in market share. However, HUAWEI CLOUD is catching up with its accumulation in the ICT field and the precipitation of the government and enterprise markets, and is constantly shortening the gap with the leading manufacturers in the market.

Of course, in the pursuit of rapid development, Huawei Cloud also needs to make up for its shortcomings. “We are a traditional hardware-advanced company. There are no examples in the world of transforming into a software-advanced company. Our difficulties are imaginable.” Ren Zhengfei realized that changing from selling products to selling cloud services requires building cloud services. The ability and support to provide customers with the operation, operation and maintenance capabilities of cloud services.

A business manager of a domestic leading cloud vendor told Sohu Technology that Huawei Cloud’s long-tail customers have relatively weak operating capabilities. “Customers who consume hundreds of thousands a month in the order of magnitude, either look at the brand or buy the cheap ones. Huawei Cloud is a bit embarrassed in the middle. And the stability and performance of its products still need to be polished.”

Fang Guowei also bluntly told Sohu Technology that the shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience to make the product more usable. Previously, it was more to quickly complement the functions, but there is still a lack of user experience. This year, it will be promoted as a focus.

“For example, in terms of product design, interaction design will strive to be more user-friendly; in terms of documentation, I hope that customers will understand how to operate immediately after reading the documentation, because a very important point in the cloud is self service.”

Relieve the pain of lack of core

Undoubtedly, sending two generals, Xu Zhijun and Yu Chengdong, can see how much Huawei attaches importance to the cloud business. Of course, frequent architectural shocks can also reveal Huawei’s entanglement in exploring cloud services.

At the beginning of 2020, Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) rose to Huawei’s fourth largest BG, Hou Jinlong served as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Peng Zhongyang as the president of Enterprise BG.

In January of this year, Huawei internally issued a document stating that consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong will concurrently serve as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Hou Jinlong, former president of Cloud and Computing BG, intends to appoint the chairman of Digital Energy. At that time, a Huawei insider revealed to Sohu Technology that “the development progress of the cloud business is average, and the slogans are more powerful. I hope Mr. Yu’s leadership can change the current state.”

On April 2, Huawei adjusted its cloud business again, appointing Zhang Pingan as the president of Cloud BU, and at the same time withdrew the cloud and computing BG, and the original server and storage were classified as “network products and solutions.”

About a week later, Huawei Cloud ushered in new personnel appointments again. Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun was appointed as Huawei Cloud Chairman, Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO, and Cloud BU added two deputy directors, Peng Zhongyang and Tao Jingwen in charge of corporate business. And process IT.

From the establishment of Cloud and Computing BG to the dismantling of Cloud and Computing BG, Cloud BU has once again returned to an independent state. Xu Zhijun said to the relevant changes that Huawei Cloud has always been an end-to-end independent BU. At the beginning of the establishment of HUAWEI CLOUD, it was hoped to coordinate the operation of servers and storage with HUAWEI CLOUD, but the collaborative operation was found to consume the energy of the cloud team.

He pointed out that the adjustments made now are to hope that the cloud business will be more independent and focus on developing cloud. At the same time, in the long run, we hope to increase the proportion of software service revenue.

Under the influence of the US ban, Huawei is also actively thinking about future business development issues. How does the future go? Xu Zhijun put forward five key strategic measures in the future, and the first one is to optimize the industrial mix and enhance the resilience of the industry, especially the enhancement of software capabilities, the strengthening of investment in advanced technology and weak-related industries and the investment in the smart auto parts industry.

Dai Mingzhe told Sohu Technology that under the ban, the chip industry chain will have a certain impact. However, Huawei’s cloud business will focus on software development in the future, and it is expected that this impact will be mitigated to a certain extent.

Can the cloud business become the next “cash cow”?

The cloud market still has development potential. Gartner data shows that as of 2019, the global cloud computing market reached US$188.3 billion, and it is expected that the market size will reach US$350 billion in 2023. According to the “2020 Cloud Computing Development White Paper” issued by the Institute of Information and Communications Technology, China’s cloud computing market is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next four years.

At the same time, the cloud business has brought huge returns to the top manufacturers. According to the 2020 earnings report, AWS cloud services contributed 11.7% of revenue and 59% of profits for Amazon. According to Microsoft’s financial report, since the Q3 quarter of fiscal year 2020, revenue from the smart cloud business has become Microsoft’s largest source of revenue for three consecutive quarters.

Of course, before the cloud business brought huge returns, it was also a terrible “golden beast”. Only after a huge investment can manufacturers “lie down and make money.” From the official commercial use of Amazon AWS in 2006 to 2015, it took nearly 10 years to turn around. year. Alibaba Cloud was founded in 2009, but it achieved breakeven for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it took about 11 years from a huge loss to a balance.

Gu Fan, general manager of cloud service product management for AWS Greater China, once said that it took nearly 10 years for AWS to achieve its first $10 billion in revenue from scratch, and it took 23 months for the second $10 billion increase. The third $10 billion increase took 13 months.

Huawei hopes to avoid excessive capital investment and emphasizes the construction of application ecology. Ren Zhengfei pointed out in his internal letter at the end of last year, “We can’t simply take the same path as Ali and Amazon. We don’t have that much money. They have endless amounts of money in the US stock market. How do we develop, we must find a way out. , Rather than simply imitating.”

In China, BAT Internet vendors, three major operators, Huawei Cloud, Kingsoft Cloud and other vendors gathered in the cloud computing track. A cloud computing-related practitioner told Sohu Technology that compared with other vendors, Huawei’s advantages lie in sales capabilities, key customer relationships, hardware coordination capabilities, and a top-to-bottom ecosystem.

Through the growth process of Amazon and Alibaba, we can see that cloud is not a “quick money” business. From its exposure to cloud computing in 2011, to its formal entry into the public cloud in 2017, and to the further improvement of its strategic position today, Huawei has not disclosed the revenue of its cloud business to the public.

It is foreseeable that Huawei Cloud still has a long way to go in the process of increasing software revenue and optimizing the industry mix.

“We must play down the concept of bull and bear markets, and grasp structural trends and opportunities.”

On the evening of April 15th, the “Golden Bull is Coming” live broadcast of the China Securities Journal frequently appeared. Dan Bin, Chairman of Shenzhen Orient Harbor and Jinniu Private Equity Investment Manager, Chief Strategist of China International Capital Corporation (47.770, -0.71, -1.46%) , Wang Hanfeng, Managing Director, gave a wonderful sharing on recent market conditions, macro policies and investment strategies.

The two guests said that the current market adjustment may not be in place, and market sentiment may cool down further. Investors should play down the concept of a bull market and a bear market, and focus on grasping structural opportunities. They can mainly focus on industries such as consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education.

Market adjustment is not yet in place

Wang Hanfeng said that the current market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, which is also in line with the characteristics of the market adjustment to a certain stage. On the whole, the market has slowly shown that the adjustment may be entering the second half of the process, but the valuation adjustment is not sufficient. , Market sentiment may further cool down. “In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to various indicators, and pay attention to whether it will reach a phased bottom within the next one or two months.”

But Bin said that short-term market trends are difficult to judge, and this adjustment may continue until the third quarter or the end of the year. By the third quarter or the end of the year, the valuation restoration should have come to an end, and the valuation of listed companies will be more attractive.

Wang Hanfeng believes that current investors pay too much attention to the performance of the market’s broad-based index and ignore the structural trend of the market. It is recommended that investors play down the concept of bull and bear markets and focus on structural opportunities. “The index can be used for reference, but don’t pay too much attention to it. What needs to be paid attention to is the clear trends in the next five to ten years and the leading companies that can represent the trends.”

Optimistic about five types of industries

In the recent days, Dabaima has been falling in succession. In Dan Bin’s view, the main reason is the high valuation of some companies. As the annual report continues to disclose, some companies’ profits did not increase significantly last year, but their stock prices have risen a lot. After the so-called slump, the valuation is still not low.

In the long run, Dan Bin is optimistic about the five types of industries: consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education. At the same time, Bin Bin said that he will not adjust the industry based on the short-term situation of a quarter, and he is especially taboo against continuous trading in the volatile market.

Regarding the liquor sector that everyone cares about, Bin Bin said that consumer companies have a particularly long cycle. For example, tobacco companies in the United States have spanned many cycles. Any company in the liquor industry will make money if it buys it from the first day of listing and has been holding it. Most of them have earned dozens or even hundreds of times in return. In the long run, the liquor industry will still perform in the future. space.

In addition, Bin Bin said that companies in the pharmaceutical industry can focus on leading technology companies. Regarding the recent major adjustments in the military industry sector, Bin Bin believes that the valuations of many leading military industry companies around the world are not high. In contrast, many domestic military industry companies producing parts and components have high valuations, and their prices are still relatively expensive after the adjustment.

Recently, the market has frequent rotations. According to Wang Hanfeng, this is related to the relatively high proportion of short-term speculation in the market structure. Frequent rotation is not necessarily a very rational behavior; and if you want to find a direction with medium and long-term investment value, it is still It depends on which direction can benefit from the current development trend of our country. “If you want to fish, you have to go to places where you can easily catch fish. From the perspective of investment, China is currently in the stage of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. These are the places where it is easier to catch fish.”

The important thing is to find long-term profitable companies that cross the bulls and bears

But Bin said that great companies in history have all grown up from small companies. To find a truly good company, one must judge from five dimensions: first, the company must have no ceiling and unlimited growth space; second, the company’s business The model needs to be simple, reliable, and easy to understand. It should be recognized by more people, and everyone must have a high level of firewood. Third, the company’s profitability must be strong and sustainable, and its annual performance must maintain growth for more than ten consecutive years. Large companies; fourth, there must be commercial barriers, and the moat must be deep and wide; fifth, there must be a good culture and a good team to withstand the challenges of growth.

Regarding the concept of “grouping” in the market, Bin said that he did not agree, and concerns about inflation and liquidity would only interfere with short-term operations. From the perspective of a slightly long-term trend, these factors are not the fundamental factors affecting individual stocks. The real investment does not depend on the judgment of the index, but to find companies that can cross the bull-bear cycle, and the profitability of the company must be able to keep up. , The simpler the basis for investment decision, the more effective it is.

But Bin said that investment should be made around the best few companies, and style rotation should not be used as a reference factor for investment. For investors, it is not advisable to blindly chase hot spots, otherwise it will be easy to chase high or run low, and the core should still be based on the enterprise. Long-term thinking about changes in profitability.

Source: China Securities Journal

Since the end of March, the price of gold has bottomed out and rebounded. Recently, it has successfully exceeded $1,750 per ounce, and the market’s attention to the precious metal market has risen again.

The price of gold bottomed out and rebounded with fire in the precious metals sector

On April 15, the international gold price hit a maximum of 1770.6 US dollars per ounce, setting a new high in the past two months. In the early trading of April 16, the overall performance of precious metals in the domestic futures market was relatively strong. The main Shanghai gold contract reported a rise of 1.39% in early trading to a maximum of 374.08 yuan/gram, which was the lowest of 354.58 yuan/gram at the beginning of March, which has risen more than 5%.

Affected by signs of a bottoming out of gold, the precious metals sector trended strongly in the early trading on the 16th. As of the morning’s close, the Wind Precious Metals Index rose 1.71%, individual stocks Zhongyuan City Gold rose 8.19%, Chifeng Gold rose 5.09%, and Yintai Gold rose nearly 5%.

“The recent rise in gold prices is mainly due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the fall in U.S. Treasury yields that have boosted the attractiveness of gold prices. The logic behind this includes that on the one hand, Fed Chairman Powell’s speech made the market believe that easing will continue; on the other hand, the international situation has intensified. The United States will expel Russian diplomats and sanction 20 companies and individuals, and Russia is also prepared to do the same. The degree of retaliation has led to rising global risk aversion. In addition, the central bank’s increase in gold reserves is also the reason for the recent rise in gold prices.”Xu Yang, chairman of Shanghai McRong Information Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times·e Company.

Zhang Wei, an analyst at Zhuochuang precious metals, also believes that international gold prices have recovered from low levels due to the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar and the containment of rising bond yields in various countries. In particular, Fed officials have recently intensively voiced that they have not considered tightening easing and raising interest rates in the short term. On the other hand, with the recovery of retail and consumption exceeding expectations, expectations of higher inflation have been continuously corroborated, so that the rise of social real interest rates has been hindered, and gold The significance of investment and inflation hedging has become apparent, which is good for the price of gold.

In response to the recent rebound in gold trends, Cheng Xiaoyong, director of the Baocheng Futures and Finance Research Institute, also pointed out that the main logic of the recent gold market has evolved into a comparison between the rate of inflation and the rise in the nominal interest rate of the US dollar. The fall in short-term U.S. Treasury yields may be the main reason for the rebound in gold, and the recent fall in U.S. Treasury yields may have a lot to do with the slowdown in U.S. Treasury issuance. At the same time, Biden’s 2.3 trillion infrastructure plan and the rebound in the U.S. service industry price index mean that the momentum for U.S. inflation to rebound has increased. Therefore, in the case of short-term U.S. Treasury yields falling, the rise in US dollar real interest rates has slowed, stimulating some Gold buy order entry.

He believes that since this year, changes in U.S. bond yields are the most important factor affecting asset prices. Since February, volatility in global financial markets has been related to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields. Not only did U.S. stocks undergo a sharp downward adjustment, but the prices of copper, crude oil, and gold also fell sharply. However, in early April, U.S. bond yields fell to a certain extent, which may be an important reason for the phased rebound in gold prices.

Will the “Golden Bull” appear again?

” Recently, gold has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, which may mean that the trend of gold’s high correction that has lasted for two quarters has temporarily come to an end. However, from the long-term mainstream logic, with the popularization of vaccines, the US economic recovery is expected to accelerate, and employment and economic data are significantly better than expected. The market expects that the Fed’s loose monetary policy will end early, and there is an upward expectation of US real interest rates. It constitutes a continuous pressing effect. Zhan Dapeng, a precious metals analyst at Everbright Futures, told a reporter from Securities Times·e Company that in the short to medium term, gold has an opportunity for a rebound. First, judging from the Fed’s statement on expectations management, the asset purchase reduction plan may appear as early as possible. In the first quarter of next year, interest rates may increase in 2023, that is, the market has “premature expectations”, gold “shot” ahead of schedule; second, with the implementation of Biden’s stimulus plan and the launch of the infrastructure plan, the US fiscal deficit continues to expand. It constitutes a medium- and long-term negative for the U.S. dollar, and gold has only a callback expectation and no bear market expectation. Since late March, whether it is the rise of U.S. long-term bond yields or the rebound of the U.S. dollar, the negative pressure on gold has been weakening. This is also gold. One of the signs of bottoming.

“The only concern now is that global gold ETF holdings are still dominated by outflows. Institutions have declining confidence in gold holdings. The weakness has become a consensus in the market. Therefore, when gold rebounds in the second quarter, the increase or decrease in gold ETF holdings will be very high. Importantly, if the capital holding confidence returns, the gold rebound may be firmer and longer-lasting, otherwise it will be short-lived.” He said.

Cheng Xiaoyong also believes that from a long-term historical perspective, 2020 will mark a long-term low in inflation and interest rates. The Federal Reserve also strives to avoid negative currency market repo exchange rates. This means that the real interest rate of the US dollar may enter a long-term period. In the upward cycle, gold investment demand will continue to fall, and there will be little room for gold prices to rebound.

Xu Yang said that from a technical perspective, gold as a whole is currently in a continuous upward phase. But it is not the time to really start the big-stride upward rhythm. The change point of the long-short trend of real gold is in the 1800 area, which is after the 1800s when the real gold strides up.

At the macro level, the price of spot gold rebounded after falling by 10.5% in the first quarter of this year. This is not the beginning of a bear market in the gold market. The yield of U.S. Treasury bonds fell after reaching a peak of 1.75% in the first quarter. This is the price of gold in the next quarter. The rise has created the conditions, and the price of gold is expected to reach $2,000 per ounce at the end of the year. The demand for physical gold jewelry accounts for about half of the total demand for gold. This demand was quite weak last year due to the blockade measures. With the economic recovery and reopening, the market demand for gold will rebound this year. The central bank, which holds about one-third of the total supply of gold, is the key to stabilizing demand. Central banks may increase their gold holdings to diversify concentrated currency risks. In addition, this year is a major year of geopolitical conflicts, which will also boost the safe-haven nature of gold.

These, users are watching

The United States and Russia fall out! Biden signed heavy sanctions, saying that the Russian government interfered in the internal affairs of the United States and will expel 10 diplomats! Russia responds urgently! U.S. stocks pulled another 300 points, and the Dow rose to 34,000!

Rare in history! Dabaima was suddenly hit by the “Sword Breaking Knife” in batches! After 3 days of financing of 2.5 billion yuan, the frenzied leveraged funds have suddenly seen the risk of collapse, “SF and CDF may not be the last case”!

Burst! 36 billion bull stocks once crashed and fell to the limit! The central bank issued a heavy note: The demographic dividend was used comfortably at the time, and the debt must be repaid afterwards! These stocks instantly became popular…

Burst! More than 2,200 US troops died, Biden announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan! The end of military operations in the past 20 years has burned $1 trillion! The first senior official of the Biden government to visit China is here…

Another national sacred car is here! Just now, Wuling Hongguang launched a convertible, which was trendy and popular, and the stock price surged in the late trading! Pickup trucks will be launched in the future…

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Cathy Wood’s Ark Fund, known as “Female Buffett,” bought nearly $250 million worth of shares in the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange on the first day of listing on Coinbase on Wednesday, and bought another 110 million worth of shares on Thursday. U.S. dollar shares.

Ark Innovation ETF, Ark Financial Technology Innovation ETF and Ark New Generation Internet ETF bought 749,205 Coinbase shares on Wednesday. Based on Wednesday’s closing price, it is worth about 246 million US dollars.

On Thursday, the three funds bought a total of 341,186 shares of Coinbase, which is worth about 110 million U.S. dollars based on Thursday’s closing price.

The first share of the cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, was officially listed on the Nasdaq (14038.7632, 180.92, 1.31%) on Wednesday, with the stock code “COIN”. It rose by about 52% on the first day of listing, and the opening price was reported at $381, an intraday increase. It reached 70%, and its market value exceeded US$100 billion, reaching US$112 billion at one time. However, the stock price fell all the way and fell below the opening price. As of the closing stock price rose 31.31%, and the market value exceeded US$64.5 billion.

On Thursday, the stock fell 1.68% to close at $322.75.

Source: Sina.com

Since the end of March, the price of gold has bottomed out and rebounded. Recently, it has successfully exceeded $1,750 per ounce, and the market’s attention to the precious metal market has risen again.

The price of gold bottomed out and rebounded with fire in the precious metals sector

On April 15, the international gold price hit a maximum of 1770.6 US dollars per ounce, setting a new high in the past two months. In the early trading of April 16, the overall performance of precious metals in the domestic futures market was relatively strong. The main Shanghai gold contract reported a rise of 1.39% in early trading to a maximum of 374.08 yuan/gram, which was the lowest of 354.58 yuan/gram at the beginning of March, which has risen more than 5%.

Affected by signs of a bottoming out of gold, the precious metals sector trended strongly in the early trading on the 16th. As of the morning’s close, the Wind Precious Metals Index rose 1.71%, individual stocks Zhongyuan City Gold rose 8.19%, Chifeng Gold rose 5.09%, and Yintai Gold rose nearly 5%.

“The recent rise in gold prices is mainly due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the fall in U.S. Treasury yields that have boosted the attractiveness of gold prices. The logic behind this includes that on the one hand, Fed Chairman Powell’s speech made the market believe that easing will continue; on the other hand, the international situation has intensified. The United States will expel Russian diplomats and sanction 20 companies and individuals, and Russia is also prepared to do the same. The degree of retaliation has led to rising global risk aversion. In addition, the central bank’s increase in gold reserves is also the reason for the recent rise in gold prices.”Xu Yang, chairman of Shanghai McRong Information Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times·e Company.

Zhang Wei, an analyst at Zhuochuang precious metals, also believes that international gold prices have recovered from low levels due to the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar and the containment of rising bond yields in various countries. In particular, Fed officials have recently intensively voiced that they have not considered tightening easing and raising interest rates in the short term. On the other hand, with the recovery of retail and consumption exceeding expectations, expectations of higher inflation have been continuously corroborated, so that the rise of social real interest rates has been hindered, and gold The significance of investment and inflation hedging has become apparent, which is good for the price of gold.

In response to the recent rebound in gold trends, Cheng Xiaoyong, director of the Baocheng Futures and Finance Research Institute, also pointed out that the main logic of the recent gold market has evolved into a comparison between the rate of inflation and the rise in the nominal interest rate of the US dollar. The fall in short-term U.S. Treasury yields may be the main reason for the rebound in gold, and the recent fall in U.S. Treasury yields may have a lot to do with the slowdown in U.S. Treasury issuance. At the same time, Biden’s 2.3 trillion infrastructure plan and the rebound in the U.S. service industry price index mean that the momentum for U.S. inflation to rebound has increased. Therefore, in the case of short-term U.S. Treasury yields falling, the rise in US dollar real interest rates has slowed, stimulating some Gold buy order entry.

He believes that since this year, changes in U.S. bond yields are the most important factor affecting asset prices. Since February, volatility in global financial markets has been related to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields. Not only did U.S. stocks undergo a sharp downward adjustment, but the prices of copper, crude oil, and gold also fell sharply. However, in early April, U.S. bond yields fell to a certain extent, which may be an important reason for the phased rebound in gold prices.

Will the “Golden Bull” appear again?

” Recently, gold has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, which may mean that the trend of gold’s high correction that has lasted for two quarters has temporarily come to an end. However, from the long-term mainstream logic, with the popularization of vaccines, the US economic recovery is expected to accelerate, and employment and economic data are significantly better than expected. The market expects that the Fed’s loose monetary policy will end early, and there is an upward expectation of US real interest rates. It constitutes a continuous pressing effect. Zhan Dapeng, a precious metals analyst at Everbright Futures, told a reporter from Securities Times·e Company that in the short to medium term, gold has an opportunity for a rebound. First, judging from the Fed’s statement on expectations management, the asset purchase reduction plan may appear as early as possible. In the first quarter of next year, interest rates may increase in 2023, that is, the market has “premature expectations”, gold “shot” ahead of schedule; second, with the implementation of Biden’s stimulus plan and the launch of the infrastructure plan, the US fiscal deficit continues to expand. It constitutes a medium- and long-term negative for the U.S. dollar, and gold has only a callback expectation and no bear market expectation. Since late March, whether it is the rise of U.S. long-term bond yields or the rebound of the U.S. dollar, the negative pressure on gold has been weakening. This is also gold. One of the signs of bottoming.

“The only concern now is that global gold ETF holdings are still dominated by outflows. Institutions have declining confidence in gold holdings. The weakness has become a consensus in the market. Therefore, when gold rebounds in the second quarter, the increase or decrease in gold ETF holdings will be very high. Importantly, if the capital holding confidence returns, the gold rebound may be firmer and longer-lasting, otherwise it will be short-lived.” He said.

Cheng Xiaoyong also believes that from a long-term historical perspective, 2020 will mark a long-term low in inflation and interest rates. The Federal Reserve also strives to avoid negative currency market repo exchange rates. This means that the real interest rate of the US dollar may enter a long-term period. In the upward cycle, gold investment demand will continue to fall, and there will be little room for gold prices to rebound.

Xu Yang said that from a technical perspective, gold as a whole is currently in a continuous upward phase. But it is not the time to really start the big-stride upward rhythm. The change point of the long-short trend of real gold is in the 1800 area, which is after the 1800s when the real gold strides up.

At the macro level, the price of spot gold rebounded after falling by 10.5% in the first quarter of this year. This is not the beginning of a bear market in the gold market. The yield of U.S. Treasury bonds fell after reaching a peak of 1.75% in the first quarter. This is the price of gold in the next quarter. The rise has created the conditions, and the price of gold is expected to reach $2,000 per ounce at the end of the year. The demand for physical gold jewelry accounts for about half of the total demand for gold. This demand was quite weak last year due to the blockade measures. With the economic recovery and reopening, the market demand for gold will rebound this year. The central bank, which holds about one-third of the total supply of gold, is the key to stabilizing demand. Central banks may increase their gold holdings to diversify concentrated currency risks. In addition, this year is a major year of geopolitical conflicts, which will also boost the safe-haven nature of gold.

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“We must play down the concept of bull and bear markets, and grasp structural trends and opportunities.”

…

On the evening of April 15th, the “Golden Bull is Coming” live broadcast of the China Securities Journal frequently appeared. Dan Bin, chairman of Shenzhen Orient Harbor and Jinniu Private Equity Investment Manager, and Wang Hanfeng, chief strategist and managing director of CICC, discussed recent market conditions. , Macro policies and investment strategies were wonderfully shared.

The two guests said that the current market adjustment may not be in place, and market sentiment may further cool down. Investors should play down the concept of bull market and bear market, and should focus on grasping structural opportunities, mainly focusing on industries such as consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education.

Market adjustment is not yet in place

Wang Hanfeng said that on the whole, the stock market has slowly shown that the adjustment may be entering the second half of the process, but the valuation adjustment is not yet sufficient, and market sentiment may further cool down. “In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to various indicators, and pay attention to whether it will reach a staged bottom within the next one or two months.”

But Bin said that the short-term trend of the market is more difficult to judge. This adjustment may continue until the third quarter or the end of the year. By then, the valuation restoration should be nearing the end, and the valuation of listed companies will be more attractive.

Wang Hanfeng believes that current investors pay too much attention to the performance of the market’s broad-based index and ignore the structural trend of the market. It is recommended that investors play down the concept of bull and bear markets and should focus on structural opportunities. “The index can be used for reference, but don’t pay too much attention to it. What needs to be paid attention to is the clear trends in the next five to ten years and the leading companies that can represent the trends.

Optimistic about five types of industries

Recently, Dabaima has fallen successively. In Dan Bin’s view, the main reason is the high valuation of some companies. As the annual report continues to disclose, some companies’ profits did not increase significantly last year, but their stock prices have risen a lot. After the so-called slump, the valuation is still not low.

In the long run, but Bin is optimistic about the five types of industries: consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education. He said that he will not adjust the industry based on the short-term situation in a quarter, and he is especially taboo against continuous trading in the volatile market.

Regarding the liquor sector that everyone is concerned about, Bin Bin said that the cycle of consumer companies is particularly long. For example, tobacco companies in the United States have spanned many cycles. If any company in the liquor industry buys and holds it from the first day of listing, it will make money, and most of them can earn dozens or even hundreds of times in return. In the long run, there is still room for the liquor industry in the future.

For the pharmaceutical industry, Bin Bin said that he can focus on companies with leading technologies.

Recently, the market has frequent rotations. In Wang Hanfeng’s view, this is related to the relatively high proportion of short-term speculation in the market structure. Frequent rotations are not necessarily a very rational behavior. To find the direction of investment value in the medium and long term, we still need to see which direction will benefit from the development trend of our country. “If you want to fish, you have to go to places where you can easily catch fish. From the perspective of investment, China is currently in the stage of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. These are the places where it is easier to catch fish.”

The important thing is to find long-term profitable companies that cross the bulls and bears

But Bin said that great companies in history have grown up from small companies. To find a truly good company, one must judge from five dimensions: first, the company has no ceiling and there is unlimited room for growth; second, the company’s business model is simple , Reliable, easy to understand, recognized by more people, everyone has a high level of firewood; third, the company’s profitability is strong and sustainable, and its annual performance has maintained growth, and it will surely grow into a large company for more than ten consecutive years; Fourth, there are commercial barriers, and the moat is deep and wide; fifth, there is a good culture and a good team to resist the challenges of growth.

Bin said that he did not agree with the concept of “grouping” in the market. He said that concerns about inflation and liquidity will only interfere with short-term operations. From the perspective of a slightly long-term trend, these factors are not the fundamental factors affecting stocks. The real investment does not depend on the judgment of the index, but to find companies that can cross the bull-bear cycle, and the profitability of the company must be able to keep up. . The simpler the basis for investment decisions, the more effective.

But Bin said that investment should be made around the best few companies, and style rotation should not be used as an investment reference factor. As far as investors are concerned, it is not advisable to blindly chase hot spots, otherwise it is easy to chase high or run low. The core is to make long-term thinking based on changes in corporate profitability. (Finish)

Produced | Sohu Technology

Author | Zhang Yating

Edit | Yang Jin

Huawei, which has always been prudent and prudent, has recently made intensive adjustments to its cloud business, which has aroused heated discussions from outsiders. On April 9, Huawei announced the appointment of Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun as Chairman of Huawei Cloud, and Huawei Consumer BG CEO Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO.

A week ago, on April 2, Huawei announced the abolition of Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) BG. On March 30, Huawei just appointed 11 members including Zhang Pingan (formerly President of Consumer Business Cloud Services) as Cloud&AI BG managers; Zhang Pingan was appointed as Cloud BU President.

At this point, the structural adjustment of the cloud business has come to an end in the turmoil. The latest Xu Zhijun + Yu Chengdong, the luxurious lineup of two generations of Huawei’s Titans, also made the speculation that “Huawei Cloud will develop independently or be sold” spread like wildfire. Some insiders bluntly said that “this is the management configuration of a listed company.”

At the Huawei Analyst Conference on April 12, Xu Zhijun gave a formal response to related hot topics. He pointed out that the abolition of cloud and computing BG is to focus on developing cloud business, increase the proportion of software service revenue, and reduce dependence on hardware.

As we all know, Huawei started by making communication equipment, and hardware revenue has always been the main driver. In recent years, the revenue of consumer business, which is dominated by mobile phones, has supported about 50% of its revenue. However, the blow of the ban made Huawei have to think about how to go on leaving the chip?

The cloud business is regarded by Huawei as a key “chess piece” for increasing software revenue.Guowei, the chief product official of Huawei Cloud, told Sohu Technology that this year’s cloud business is definitely still growing in three digits. On the one hand, Huawei attaches great importance to the cloud business, and customer demand is also great. According to official disclosures, Huawei Cloud will grow by 168% in 2020.

It should be noted that even if the cloud and computing BG has been withdrawn, the current cloud and computing entire sales and channel system remains consistent. Shi Jilin, President of Huawei Cloud and Computing Global Marketing and Sales Service Department, told media including Sohu Technology, “The future sales and channel system will be optimized and adjusted accordingly as business development needs.”

“The shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience”

Compared with mainstream cloud vendors, Huawei Cloud is almost 10 years behind. Amazon AWS cloud computing service was commercialized in 2006, Alibaba Cloud was formally established in 2009, Tencent Cloud was commercialized in 13 years, and Huawei only established Cloud BU in 17 years and officially entered the public cloud.

“It is necessary to make up for shortcomings but also to find ways to surpass other manufacturers.”Fang Guowei told Sohu Technology that the biggest challenge for Huawei’s cloud business is that the business started relatively late..

He pointed out that it took Huawei almost four years to go through the product development process of other manufacturers for about ten years. “We started to do public cloud in 17 years and developed more than 200 products in almost four years. The number of products is about the same as that of other vendors.”

The speed of HUAWEI CLOUD’s development should not be underestimated. According to Canalys’ Q4 China Cloud Service Market Report last year, Alibaba Cloud occupies an absolute leading position with a 40% share, Huawei Cloud ranks second with a 17% market share, and Tencent ranks third with a 15% share.

Dai Mingzhe, an analyst at Head Leopard Research Institute, told Sohu Technology that because of its first-mover advantage, Alibaba Cloud has always maintained the first place in market share. However, HUAWEI CLOUD is catching up with its accumulation in the ICT field and the precipitation of the government and enterprise markets, and is constantly shortening the gap with the leading manufacturers in the market.

Of course, in the pursuit of rapid development, Huawei Cloud also needs to make up for its shortcomings. “We are a traditional hardware-advanced company. There are no examples in the world of transforming into a software-advanced company. Our difficulties are imaginable.” Ren Zhengfei realized that changing from selling products to selling cloud services requires building cloud services. The ability and support to provide customers with the operation, operation and maintenance capabilities of cloud services.

A business manager of a domestic leading cloud vendor told Sohu Technology that Huawei Cloud’s long-tail customers have relatively weak operating capabilities. “Customers who consume hundreds of thousands a month in the order of magnitude, either look at the brand or buy the cheap ones. Huawei Cloud is a bit embarrassed in the middle. And the stability and performance of its products still need to be polished.”

Fang Guowei also bluntly told Sohu Technology that the shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience to make the product more usable. Previously, it was more to quickly complement the functions, but there is still a lack of user experience. This year, it will be promoted as a focus.

“For example, in terms of product design, interaction design will strive to be more user-friendly; in terms of documentation, I hope that customers will understand how to operate immediately after reading the documentation, because a very important point in the cloud is self service.”

Relieve the pain of lack of core

Undoubtedly, sending two generals, Xu Zhijun and Yu Chengdong, can see how much Huawei attaches importance to the cloud business. Of course, frequent architectural shocks can also reveal Huawei’s entanglement in exploring cloud services.

At the beginning of 2020, Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) rose to Huawei’s fourth largest BG, Hou Jinlong served as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Peng Zhongyang as the president of Enterprise BG.

In January of this year, Huawei internally issued a document stating that consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong will concurrently serve as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Hou Jinlong, former president of Cloud and Computing BG, intends to appoint the chairman of Digital Energy. At that time, a Huawei insider revealed to Sohu Technology that “the development progress of the cloud business is average, and the slogans are more powerful. I hope Mr. Yu’s leadership can change the current state.”

On April 2, Huawei adjusted its cloud business again, appointing Zhang Pingan as the president of Cloud BU, and at the same time withdrew the cloud and computing BG, and the original server and storage were classified as “network products and solutions.”

About a week later, Huawei Cloud ushered in new personnel appointments again. Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun was appointed as Huawei Cloud Chairman, Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO, and Cloud BU added two deputy directors, Peng Zhongyang and Tao Jingwen in charge of corporate business. And process IT.

From the establishment of Cloud and Computing BG to the dismantling of Cloud and Computing BG, Cloud BU has once again returned to an independent state. Xu Zhijun said to the relevant changes that Huawei Cloud has always been an end-to-end independent BU. At the beginning of the establishment of HUAWEI CLOUD, it was hoped to coordinate the operation of servers and storage with HUAWEI CLOUD, but the collaborative operation was found to consume the energy of the cloud team.

He pointed out that the adjustments made now are to hope that the cloud business will be more independent and focus on developing cloud. At the same time, in the long run, we hope to increase the proportion of software service revenue.

Under the influence of the US ban, Huawei is also actively thinking about future business development issues. How does the future go? Xu Zhijun put forward five key strategic measures in the future, and the first one is to optimize the industrial mix and enhance the resilience of the industry, especially the enhancement of software capabilities, the strengthening of investment in advanced technology and weak-related industries and the investment in the smart auto parts industry.

Dai Mingzhe told Sohu Technology that under the ban, the chip industry chain will have a certain impact. However, Huawei’s cloud business will focus on software development in the future, and it is expected that this impact will be mitigated to a certain extent.

Can the cloud business become the next “cash cow”?

The cloud market still has development potential. Gartner data shows that as of 2019, the global cloud computing market reached US$188.3 billion, and it is expected that the market size will reach US$350 billion in 2023. According to the “2020 Cloud Computing Development White Paper” issued by the Institute of Information and Communications Technology, China’s cloud computing market is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next four years.

At the same time, the cloud business has brought huge returns to the top manufacturers. According to the 2020 earnings report, AWS cloud services contributed 11.7% of revenue and 59% of profits for Amazon. According to Microsoft’s financial report, since the Q3 quarter of fiscal year 2020, revenue from the smart cloud business has become Microsoft’s largest source of revenue for three consecutive quarters.

Of course, before the cloud business brought huge returns, it was also a terrible “golden beast”. Only after a huge investment can manufacturers “lie down and make money.” From the official commercial use of Amazon AWS in 2006 to 2015, it took nearly 10 years to turn around. year. Alibaba Cloud was founded in 2009, but it achieved breakeven for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it took about 11 years from a huge loss to a balance.

Gu Fan, general manager of cloud service product management for AWS Greater China, once said that it took nearly 10 years for AWS to achieve its first $10 billion in revenue from scratch, and it took 23 months for the second $10 billion increase. The third $10 billion increase took 13 months.

Huawei hopes to avoid excessive capital investment and emphasizes the construction of application ecology. Ren Zhengfei pointed out in his internal letter at the end of last year, “We can’t simply take the same path as Ali and Amazon. We don’t have that much money. They have endless amounts of money in the US stock market. How do we develop, we must find a way out. , Rather than simply imitating.”

In China, BAT Internet vendors, three major operators, Huawei Cloud, Kingsoft Cloud and other vendors gathered in the cloud computing track. A cloud computing-related practitioner told Sohu Technology that compared with other vendors, Huawei’s advantages lie in sales capabilities, key customer relationships, hardware coordination capabilities, and a top-to-bottom ecosystem.

Through the growth process of Amazon and Alibaba, we can see that cloud is not a “quick money” business. From its exposure to cloud computing in 2011, to its formal entry into the public cloud in 2017, and to the further improvement of its strategic position today, Huawei has not disclosed the revenue of its cloud business to the public.

It is foreseeable that Huawei Cloud still has a long way to go in the process of increasing software revenue and optimizing the industry mix.