background

Increasing demand worldwide Oil price close to $ 100?

Status: 23.06.2021 3:10 p.m.

Oil is more expensive than it has been in two years. Experts warn of a supply crisis: The prices for crude oil and thus also gasoline, kerosene and heating oil could soon rise much higher.

From Angela Göpfert, tagesschau.de

Oil prices hit new multi-year highs this week. For the first time in two years, a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent cost more than $ 75 again. For a barrel of the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) variety, more than 73 dollars were paid on the market – the highest amount since October 2018. Rising oil prices – something that businesses and consumers may need to get used to. According to some experts, the new multi-year highs in oil prices, which many consumers are already feeling painfully at gas stations or when buying heating oil, are just the beginning of a longer upward trend in the oil market.

Analysts predict rising oil prices

The experts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs expect the Brent price to rise to $ 80 this summer. But that is not the end of the story. An oil price of $ 100 is a “real possibility”. Alex Sanna, top oil trader at Glencore, the world’s largest commodity trading group, also said, according to the Financial Times, that an oil price of $ 100 is becoming increasingly likely.

The experts at JPMorgan even see a new oil super cycle looming and recently renewed their forecast of an oil price of $ 190 in 2025.

Demand congestion as a price driver

Francisco Blanch, raw materials expert at Bank of America, may not look quite that far into the future. For this he has the most precise 100-dollar forecast ready: the oil price could crack the round mark as early as 2022. The market hardly changes on the supply side – and this in turn is offset by an immense backlog of demand. It is easy to explain where this backlog of demand comes from: Just as many private households restricted their consumption during the pandemic, so too many companies put the necessary investments aside. Now that the global vaccination campaign is gaining momentum, at least in the major industrialized countries, consumers, companies and economies have a lot to catch up on.

Delta variant is a risk factor

The more relaxed Corona situation and the awakening global economy are leading to higher demand for crude oil, gasoline, diesel – and kerosene. Oil expert Blanch sees the rising travel industry as a major price driver.

The delta variant of the virus from India, which could lead to a further tightening of the corona measures, is currently also posing a risk to the economy.

Signal of a shortage of supply

In search of signs of whether demand is actually exceeding supply at the moment, it is worth taking a look at the market for so-called oil futures. Current oil futures contracts are quoted there higher than contracts with delivery at a later point in time. Such a constellation, referred to by experts as “backwardation”, is rather unusual and a clear indication of fear of scarcity – “and thus for further rising prices”, as market expert Robert Rethfeld from Wellenreiter-Invest emphasizes.

A price corrective called fracking

The rising prices should actually make re-entry into the oil market attractive for the US shale industry. In the past, the US frackers acted as flexible price correctors on the oil market: If prices rose, more shale oil was drilled in the short term, supply increased, prices fell again.

As a reminder, the last time oil traded above $ 100 was in 2014, when a rapidly growing supply from the US fracking industry brought an abrupt end to the last oil super cycle.

Sustainability trend slows US oil industry

But this mechanism doesn’t seem to work that well anymore. This is due on the one hand to the new US President Joe Biden, who imposed a stop on oil and gas drilling on state-owned land in January, and on the other hand to the global trend towards sustainable investment.

“The number of active US oil wells is increasing only slowly,” emphasizes wave rider expert Rethfeld. “The investors do not want to see an expansion of the production capacities at the moment, but instead demand investments in renewable energies.”

Iran as a risk factor

The production countries of the OPEC + oil cartel, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, could benefit from the West’s climate policy. It remains to be seen how willing they are to expand production to fill the void left by the US oil industry.

Especially since there are supply risks on the part of OPEC: “After the election of an ultra-conservative cleric as the new president, Iran will have a hard time overturning US sanctions and increasing oil exports,” said Eugen Weinberg, raw materials expert at Commerzbank .

Inflation Risks Before Revaluation?

Should the oil price actually rise further towards 100 dollars, this would inevitably lead to a reassessment of the inflation risks in the financial markets, since the oil price is one of the main drivers of consumer prices.

Just yesterday, Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), told the House of Representatives budget committee again that the Fed was considering the current high inflation rates a temporary phenomenon considered. However, market expert Rethfeld emphasizes: “Any oil price above $ 100 would suggest to the public that Powell is wrong.”

Brent oil price increased for 4 consecutive sessions on June 15. Photo: Reuters Ending the session on June 14, Brent oil price advanced 17 US cents to 72.86 USD/barrel. The price of this oil commodity at the beginning of the session jumped to $73.64 per barrel – the highest level since April 2019. The price of WTI oil fell 3 US cents to 70.88 USD/barrel, after touching $71.78/barrel at one point, the highest level since October 2018. The price of “black gold” has increased sharply in recent weeks thanks to a gradual recovery in demand for fuel in the context of many countries easing restrictions to prevent the Covid-19 epidemic. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on June 11 forecast that global demand will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, faster than previously predicted. The IEA called on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as the OPEC+ group, to increase supply to meet demand. The OPEC+ group has limited output to support oil prices after the Covid-19 pandemic caused demand to drop to a record in 2020. Indirect discussions between the US and Iran, and the remaining powers in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, resumed on June 12 in Vienna (Austria). However, the European Union (EU) described this round of negotiations on the multilateral nuclear deal as “tense”. The US return to the Iran Nuclear Agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), would pave the way for the lifting of economic sanctions on Tehran, thereby allowing the OPEC member This continues to export crude oil. However, financial consulting firm ING Economics said that the possibility of the US rejoining the JCPOA before the Iranian presidential election this weekend is very unlikely. Regarding supply, the OPEC + group recently decided to maintain the production agreement to support oil prices in the middle of the epidemic season. According to ING, additional supply from the OPEC+ group will be needed in the second half of the year, as demand is expected to continue to recover. However, the rally of oil prices in the session was also limited as investors cautiously waited for the outcome of the policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) from 15-16/// 6 to look for signals on when the central bank will begin to scale back its monetary stimulus measures.

Finance Minister Ho Duc Phoc works with the General Department of Taxation. The period of 2021 – 2025 is expected to collect about 6,558,500 billion VND On the afternoon of April 23, the Ministry of Finance held a conference to report on the implementation of the task of State budget revenue management (state budget) held at the headquarters of the General Department of Taxation. Director General of the General Department of Taxation Cao Anh Tuan affirmed that the revenue structure of the tax sector is becoming more and more sustainable, with the increasing proportion of domestic revenue in the total state budget revenue (on average, in the five-year period 2011-2015, it accounts for 67 , 5% of total state budget revenue, by 2020, accounts for about 85.6% – the set target is 84-85%). Meanwhile, crude oil revenue accounts for a decreasing proportion, from 12.9% on average in 2011-2015 period to 3.6% on average in 2016-2020 period. In which, the average rate of mobilization of state budget revenue in 5 years in the 2016-2020 period will reach 25.2% of GDP (the target of 23.5% of GDP), of which mobilization from taxes and fees approximately meets the set target. 21% of GDP. Regarding the State budget revenue target for the period 2021-2025 mentioned in the draft Financial Strategy for the period of 2021-2030, which is being submitted to the Ministry of Finance’s leaders for approval, in which, the General Department of Taxation sets targets on state budget revenue for the period of 2021-2025. paragraphs 2021-2025 as follows: First, the average rate of mobilization into the state budget in the period 2021-2025 will reach about 15-16% of GDP, of which mobilization from taxes and fees is about 13-14% of GDP. Second, the proportion of domestic revenue in total state budget revenue by 2025 will reach over 85% of total state budget revenue. Third, the proportion of crude oil revenue by 2025 will decrease to 1.4% of the total state budget revenue. In which, the expected state budget revenue collected by the tax authority in the period 2021-2025 has been reported to the National Assembly at the 10th session, the 14th National Assembly is expected to be about 6,558,500 billion VND, including: Crude oil revenue. VND 108,200 billion; Domestic revenue was VND 6,450,300 billion, of which, revenue excluding land use fees, dividends & profits, lottery, and the difference between State Bank revenues and expenditures was VND 5,311,600 billion. In addition, it is expected that the 5-year 2021-2025 collection to update the 5-year financial plan 2021-2025 has been coordinated by the General Department of Taxation and functional units to submit to the Ministry of Finance for updating the 5-year financial plan. 2021-2025. Accordingly, the estimated total state budget revenue managed by tax authorities in the five years period 2021-2025 is about VND 6,844,700 billion, 1.2 times higher than that of the 2016-2020 period; 286,200 billion higher than the expected revenue in the five years from 2021-2025 to report to the 10th session of the National Assembly, XIV National Assembly (6,558,500 billion). In the field of tax administration reform, General Director of the General Department of Taxation Cao Anh Tuan affirmed that the Tax Department is determined to reduce the time to implement tax administrative procedures to strive to be one of the leading countries by 2025. Southeast Asia is ranked as having a tax advantage. In which, striving: The rate of electronic tax declaration procedures at level 3 and 4 reaches at least 95%; The rate of online public services at levels 3 and 4 integrated with national public service portals reaches at least 70%. Director General Cao Anh Tuan reported at the Conference. Consider the regulation rate according to the specific mechanism of Ho Chi Minh City Speaking at the conference, the Minister of Finance Ho Duc Phoc noted important results in the management of state budget revenues in recent years. According to the Minister, in 2020, although the socio-economic situation of the country still faces many difficulties due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but with the drastic direction of the Party, National Assembly, Government, Prime Minister The Government and the entire Finance sector in general have made great efforts to fulfill their assigned political tasks. The Minister asked the leaders of the units under the Ministry of Finance to focus on leading, directing and meeting the task requirements in the new situation. In particular, it is necessary to regularly direct, review and evaluate cadres, civil servants and public employees as a basis for staff evaluation, ensuring good completion of assigned tasks. Minister Ho Duc Phoc requested the Tax Policy Department (Ministry of Finance) to preside over and coordinate with the General Department of Taxation and the General Department of Customs to advise early on the regulation rate according to the specific mechanism of Ho Chi Minh City, in order to avoid the improper application in the implementation process makes it difficult for the state budget management. The Minister noted that in the coming time, the taxation sector needs to focus on completing the estimate, this is the most important task, focusing on building and completing tax legislation, and strengthening the management of objects to combat revenue loss, especially in the fields of potential sectors such as electronic transactions, cross-border transactions, real estate, transfer pricing, transfer transactions. Tax Departments need to link with the land registration office; coordinating with banks to combat money laundering; Residential data connection; enhance propagation and settlement of complaints for taxpayers … In the field of tax consultancy, it is necessary to review and sum up and evaluate the effectiveness of tax agents. In particular, it is necessary to organize training and management organization in accordance with regulations. For the management of state budget revenues, the Minister suggested that the Taxation branch should strengthen the implementation of electronic taxation; expanding objects of electronic tax declaration; coordinating with authorities to determine financial obligations; Need to build big data about taxpayers and apply artificial intelligence in revenue control and build an electronic invoice database through which to promptly identify and handle incorrect invoices to promptly handle them. wrong issues. In addition, it is necessary to focus on researching and developing decrees and circulars on the implementation of e-invoices, proactively implementing appropriate tax and fee solutions to contribute to solving difficulties and supporting businesses. citizen. For tax data storage, it is necessary to continue to upgrade and modernize the server system, ensure the server operates 24/24 and have security and backup systems. At the same time, strengthen tax inspection and examination based on analysis of risk assessment data; strengthening professional capacity, inspecting and strictly enforcing violations and violations of the law; Promote international cooperation to combat tax evasion, create conditions to attract investment. Minister of Finance Ho Duc Phoc especially emphasized: “Promoting the tradition of construction and development, I hope that all units in the entire Finance sector continue to strengthen discipline, solidarity, creativity, and vigorously emulation for a comprehensive victory, exceeding the financial – budget targets and tasks, determined to strive to fulfill well the tasks assigned by the Party and State “.