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Increasing demand worldwide Oil price close to $ 100?

Status: 23.06.2021 3:10 p.m.

Oil is more expensive than it has been in two years. Experts warn of a supply crisis: The prices for crude oil and thus also gasoline, kerosene and heating oil could soon rise much higher.

From Angela Göpfert, tagesschau.de

Oil prices hit new multi-year highs this week. For the first time in two years, a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent cost more than $ 75 again. For a barrel of the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) variety, more than 73 dollars were paid on the market – the highest amount since October 2018. Rising oil prices – something that businesses and consumers may need to get used to. According to some experts, the new multi-year highs in oil prices, which many consumers are already feeling painfully at gas stations or when buying heating oil, are just the beginning of a longer upward trend in the oil market.

Analysts predict rising oil prices

The experts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs expect the Brent price to rise to $ 80 this summer. But that is not the end of the story. An oil price of $ 100 is a “real possibility”. Alex Sanna, top oil trader at Glencore, the world’s largest commodity trading group, also said, according to the Financial Times, that an oil price of $ 100 is becoming increasingly likely.

The experts at JPMorgan even see a new oil super cycle looming and recently renewed their forecast of an oil price of $ 190 in 2025.

Demand congestion as a price driver

Francisco Blanch, raw materials expert at Bank of America, may not look quite that far into the future. For this he has the most precise 100-dollar forecast ready: the oil price could crack the round mark as early as 2022. The market hardly changes on the supply side – and this in turn is offset by an immense backlog of demand. It is easy to explain where this backlog of demand comes from: Just as many private households restricted their consumption during the pandemic, so too many companies put the necessary investments aside. Now that the global vaccination campaign is gaining momentum, at least in the major industrialized countries, consumers, companies and economies have a lot to catch up on.

Delta variant is a risk factor

The more relaxed Corona situation and the awakening global economy are leading to higher demand for crude oil, gasoline, diesel – and kerosene. Oil expert Blanch sees the rising travel industry as a major price driver.

The delta variant of the virus from India, which could lead to a further tightening of the corona measures, is currently also posing a risk to the economy.

Signal of a shortage of supply

In search of signs of whether demand is actually exceeding supply at the moment, it is worth taking a look at the market for so-called oil futures. Current oil futures contracts are quoted there higher than contracts with delivery at a later point in time. Such a constellation, referred to by experts as “backwardation”, is rather unusual and a clear indication of fear of scarcity – “and thus for further rising prices”, as market expert Robert Rethfeld from Wellenreiter-Invest emphasizes.

A price corrective called fracking

The rising prices should actually make re-entry into the oil market attractive for the US shale industry. In the past, the US frackers acted as flexible price correctors on the oil market: If prices rose, more shale oil was drilled in the short term, supply increased, prices fell again.

As a reminder, the last time oil traded above $ 100 was in 2014, when a rapidly growing supply from the US fracking industry brought an abrupt end to the last oil super cycle.

Sustainability trend slows US oil industry

But this mechanism doesn’t seem to work that well anymore. This is due on the one hand to the new US President Joe Biden, who imposed a stop on oil and gas drilling on state-owned land in January, and on the other hand to the global trend towards sustainable investment.

“The number of active US oil wells is increasing only slowly,” emphasizes wave rider expert Rethfeld. “The investors do not want to see an expansion of the production capacities at the moment, but instead demand investments in renewable energies.”

Iran as a risk factor

The production countries of the OPEC + oil cartel, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, could benefit from the West’s climate policy. It remains to be seen how willing they are to expand production to fill the void left by the US oil industry.

Especially since there are supply risks on the part of OPEC: “After the election of an ultra-conservative cleric as the new president, Iran will have a hard time overturning US sanctions and increasing oil exports,” said Eugen Weinberg, raw materials expert at Commerzbank .

Inflation Risks Before Revaluation?

Should the oil price actually rise further towards 100 dollars, this would inevitably lead to a reassessment of the inflation risks in the financial markets, since the oil price is one of the main drivers of consumer prices.

Just yesterday, Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), told the House of Representatives budget committee again that the Fed was considering the current high inflation rates a temporary phenomenon considered. However, market expert Rethfeld emphasizes: “Any oil price above $ 100 would suggest to the public that Powell is wrong.”

Why is it so difficult to socialize anonymously for a long time? In April last year, a website called “The Website Will Self-Destruct” appeared on the Internet when the epidemic was severe. In this website, anyone can leave a message, and others may see it by clicking the “read” button. Its uniqueness is that if no new message is received within 24 hours, the website will be destroyed automatically.

But so far, this website still exists. During the most severe period of the epidemic, many parts of the world experienced complete lockdowns, and the public suffered panic, loneliness and depression. The Website Will Self-Destruct became a good “tree hole” to help users alleviate various negative emotions. Even though the epidemic has been under obvious control, users’ enthusiasm for the website has not diminished, otherwise this unique “self-destructing website” will not survive to this day.

In fact, this kind of anonymous social mode in the Internet has always been very popular. Many anonymous social applications have emerged around the world, and some have even become “phenomenal” products. However, no matter how beautiful the beginning is, they almost all go to a depressed ending and leave the scene sadly. Obviously users have such a strong demand for anonymous social networking, but these products are always as difficult to last as the dew. So what kind of problem has caused the supposedly hot anonymous social networking to be in such an “embarrassed” state?

1. Widely popular all over the world, anonymous social networking on the Internet satisfies human needs

In fact, anonymous social software has appeared a few years ago.

Telegram, an instant messaging software founded by brothers Nikolai Durov and Pavel Durov from Russia in 2013, focuses on the “anonymous social” model (Pavel Durov is also a well-known Russian social networking site vkontakte Founder).

Users can exchange encrypted and self-destructing messages with each other in Telegram, and send files of types such as photos and movies. The client has a PC version, a mobile version, and other types to choose from. In March 2018, Telegram officially stated that its monthly active users had reached 200 million. The Paper reported that Telegram had added tens of millions of users this year. It is estimated that by the end of 2022, Telegram’s monthly active users will increase from the current approximately 550 million. To 1 billion people.

And another anonymous social application Secret became popular in 2014. The app allows users to spread gossip, write their own complaints, and post messages anonymously. After 3 rounds of financing, Secret raised about 35 million U.S. dollars. Investors include Index Ventures, Red Dot Ventures and other well-known investment institutions. Secret’s valuation at that time reached about 100 million U.S. dollars.

These anonymous social applications are relatively well-known abroad. Judging from their financing status and user volume, people do have a strong demand for anonymous social networking. In China’s Internet market, the most famous national-level anonymous social application is undoubtedly the “drifting bottle.” The drift bottle first appeared in the QQ mailbox. At that time, the function of the drift bottle was very simple. Write a paragraph and send it to strangers anonymously, and the person who found it will respond. It is the same as the drifting bottle we play on the beach, and the drifting bottle thrown into the sea may not have an echo, but the QQ drifting bottle will definitely get a reply. At first, Drifting Bottle seemed to be just an additional function of QQ, but it was this feature that made the QQ mailbox at that time surpassed the No. 1 list in the market: In 2010, Drifting Bottle exceeded 1 million users in only 3 days after it went online, half a year later. Reaching 10 million, Drifting Bottle has enabled QQ mailboxes to exceed 100 million active users, surpassing NetEase mailboxes to reach the top in one fell swoop. This kind of success was unexpected by Zhang Xiaolong, the founder of Drifting Bottle. He said, “Drifting Bottle made me realize the greatness of the group. Its behavior pattern is beyond our expectations, and we cannot fully understand it. If we have to Analyzing, talking and expecting a response (making friends) are still the first.” The loneliness of the individual soul and the curiosity of the unknown world are always the deepest existence in human nature. The Drifting Bottle is an anonymous social mode with a tree hole nature, which can meet the needs of users in the depths of human nature. Then Drifting Bottle entered WeChat and continued to play its role. In order to make social interaction more interesting, Zhang Xiaolong also added social methods for strangers such as Shake, nearby people, etc. to WeChat. These features have all contributed to a sharp increase in the number of WeChat users without exception. WeChat can become the appearance of today’s national-level social applications, which is naturally the result of the continuous exploration of multiple functions, technology and operation teams. But it is the “anonymous social” element that makes the user volume soar. Although such phenomenon-level anonymous social products have not appeared in China’s Internet market since the Drifting Bottle, other niche anonymous social products have quietly emerged, such as Soul, One Can, and Tape. Although not so well-known, they also rely on anonymous social networking and some highly personalized features to harvest a group of users. However, the contradiction here is that people have a strong demand for anonymous social networking, but it has always been very difficult for anonymous social applications to survive in the market for a long time. So what is wrong with the anonymous social application that caused it to get stuck in such an awkward position?

2. There is demand but there is no market, what problems does anonymous social encounters?

In the Chinese and foreign Internet markets, it seems that anonymous social applications have never been able to survive for long. Even if they still exist, they will inevitably be more bumpy than other types of social applications. In 2015, Secret, which had 15 million users and was valued at $100 million in one year after its launch, closed. Secret founder David Beato said frankly in his blog: This is a deliberate decision, because Secret” It deviates from my original intention when I started my business.” The reason why David said this is mainly because in the actual application of Secret, due to the anonymity mechanism, many online violence appeared in this application. There is a view that Secret has inspired the ugly side of human nature to achieve success in the business model, so Secret’s defeat will be sooner or later. Coincidentally, another well-known anonymous social software Telegram is also facing a crisis of how to explore a self-sufficient model. In order to increase revenue, advertising is temporarily adopted. Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, said that this project needs at least hundreds of millions of dollars a year to sustain, and it also needs to remain independent and loyal to its values. In China’s Internet market, the drift bottle has already been offline. Because this kind of anonymous social gameplay is extremely easy to use, it becomes a gathering place for pornographic information and spam advertisements. Under this trend, the drifting bottle was finally absent from the original intention, and was discarded by users and the market outside the stage of the Internet. Similar to the fate of these “predecessors”, the life of anonymous social applications after this will not be long. For example, the anonymous social product “Yi Can” launched in 2018 announced the dissolution of the team in 2019. The platform aims to “alleviate human loneliness.” Its product manager said that he is a senior social phobia, and he is also a person with a strong sense of loneliness and expressiveness. Therefore, he hopes to design it to help people say “Nowhere.” “Tell, but don’t want to hide the worries” product. In fact, one can does a pretty good job. The number of monthly active users is still around 380,000 before it plans to disband. From the evaluation point of view, the user experience is also very good. The platform is divided into emotions, interactions, hobbies, and life. There are several small sub-categories under each section. One pot attaches great importance to user experience and has been based on user experience. Feedback for optimization. However, such a platform with industry ideals and good operating conditions failed to persist in the end. Because in an anonymous state, a lot of negative energy attacks and vulgar information have gradually appeared, and the age of users is naturally unsustainable over time. From the experience of anonymous social platforms, we can see that an anonymous environment is prone to many problems. Modern people are busy and under great pressure on weekdays. Such a state can be alleviated in the Internet. However, driven by the dark side of human nature, various negative emotions can easily pour out in an anonymous environment, which will inevitably harm others. As a result, harassment, slander, cyberbullying, pornography…Various problems have repeatedly appeared, and the beautiful vision of the platform and users is particularly weak when it comes to the dark side of human nature. These negative emotions seem like a never-ending cycle, which will affect any anonymous social platform that wants to be positive, and will pull down and dissuade those users who originally have pure goals or just want to find a spiritual habitat. This is the fundamental reason why the demand for anonymous social networking is strong, but the product is difficult to gain a foothold in the market. Is it possible that anonymous social products can only be revolved in this vortex of reincarnation, without the slightest vitality and hope?

3. Deeply cultivating market segments, anonymous social networking can “rescue”

However, even if there are many problems, the desire and demand of human beings for anonymous social interaction has never ceased. In real life, too many people live with “personal design”, and every time they post a circle of friends, they must first think and consider carefully, thinking about how to use glamorous online images to conceal the real life’s chaos and chicken feathers. The longer this state lasts, the more attractive the anonymous social model will be to users. Because in the anonymous social mode, people can take off the shackles and masks, hide in the “darkness” and make the most authentic sound. At this time, people don’t have to pretend to be their ideal self, and they don’t need to judge others too much. The most relaxed and comfortable state of human beings. Based on this demand, anonymous social products can often explode huge vitality in the early stage of operation, attracting a large number of users in a very short period of time. Even though there are still many problems that have not yet been resolved, it can be seen from the fact that anonymous social software “follows the next”, the anonymous social market still has huge potential to be explored. Therefore, what practitioners need to do may not be to change direction or simply abandon the anonymous social market, but to work hard on technology and supervision, using technical means to filter out as many negative content as possible, and to provide users with a healthy communication. Environment, and strengthen supervision at the same time, make the anonymous social platform and community more pure. In this way, anonymous social products are not hopeless, as long as they work hard, they can still be “rescued.” However, starting a business is easy and difficult, especially when doing anonymous social products. Perhaps for anonymous social networking, a pure environment and an attitude close to the original intention are the basic conditions to ensure the long-term existence of the platform rather than a short-lived one

Free corona tests Pharmacies want to reduce supply

Status: 06/20/2021 07:22 a.m.

In view of falling demand and less money from the federal government, many pharmacies want to reduce their range of corona rapid tests. The implementation is no longer economical. Due to the falling demand for corona tests, Germany’s pharmacies want to limit their range. Since the number of fully vaccinated is increasing and infection protection rules have been relaxed, the need for tests is decreasing, said a spokesman for the Abda pharmacists’ association. He also pointed out that the federal government pays less than before. “This means that it is no longer economical to carry out the tests for a number of pharmacies.” The test offer will therefore probably get smaller step by step. Alongside private companies and state institutions, pharmacies are among the most important test center operators. According to Abda estimates, around 20 to 25 percent of pharmacies offer so-called citizen tests – that is, rapid tests that are free for consumers and paid for by the federal government.

Less money for tests

Originally, the pharmacies, like all other providers, received up to 18 euros per antigen test carried out, now the federal government only pays up to 12.50 euros. In the corona pandemic, spring tests were key to ensuring that people with a negative result could visit restaurants or shops.

However, the number of infections is now so low that loosening takes effect and a visit to a restaurant or shopping is permitted even without a test result. In addition, fully vaccinated people are exempt from test requirements.

Fewer and fewer rapid tests

Figures from the NRW Ministry of Health show how much demand is falling. Last Thursday there were 306,000 rapid antigen tests via the test centers in the state. Of those, 216 were positive – a percentage of 0.07 percent. A week earlier there were 498,000 tests in one day (positive: 0.08 percent); a month ago it was 594,000 (positive: 0.23 percent). The number of test sites in North Rhine-Westphalia was recently stable at 9236 – it will probably decrease in the future.

The Association of the Diagnostics Industry, which represents manufacturers of tests, assumes that the demand for antigen tests in the test centers will drop significantly in the summer. The manufacturers will “of course adjust to a permanently falling demand,” said an association spokeswoman. But they are working on tests that could detect both influenza and coronavirus disease. Such tests could help in the fall, should there be a flu wave and the number of corona infections rise again.

Film industry “There’s never been more shooting going on”

Status: 06/18/2021 10:22 a.m.

The film industry is recovering from the forced Corona break. Due to the great pent-up demand, production is currently running at full speed. But the pandemic has consequences that will change the industry.

From Tina von Löhneysen, RBB

Backdrops on trolleys, trucks being unloaded, locked gates behind which secret stage sets are set up – in the Babelsberg studio there is a buzz. Christoph Fisser is a member of the board here and is in a good mood. In a polo shirt, he walks across the extensive grounds. “We are starting three major international productions these weeks, all of which are star-studded,” he says. You can hear the pride in his voice. “Not only here, it is shot everywhere like never before, because all films are being made up that were not made last year. They were all already financed.”

Make-up artists are hard to come by

The industry is booming. So much so that it is difficult to put crews together. Make-up artists and sound engineers are hard to come by because they are all already engaged in productions. Studio Babelsberg is a heavyweight in the industry. Founded more than a hundred years ago, films such as “The Blue Angel” or later “The Bourne Ultimatum” and “Grand Budapest Hotel” were shot here. It is considered the oldest film studio of its kind in the world. During Corona you only had to close for 16 weeks, two large-scale productions then continued filming in Potsdam. Although this was associated with a large logistical and financial effort – 60,000 tests were carried out for it, and now more meticulous testing is being carried out – but it has just continued.

The industry stood still

The industry as a whole was different. There was a standstill. It was hardly shot. The uncertainty was too great, the conditions too strict. Now there is far-reaching relaxation, the general sigh of relief and a lot of catching up to do, says Sebastian Lambeck from the producer alliance for film and television. But in perspective one will be able to observe a shift in production activity.

“Financing movies has become even more difficult due to the pandemic,” says Lambeck. Whether you get a film in the cinemas when it is finished, how well it is going: All this has become even more unpredictable due to the pandemic. And, quite clearly: The trend that was already emerging has accelerated enormously as a result of Corona: “The streaming providers are the winners of this crisis.” Babelsberg board member Fisser also notices this. The demand has more than tripled, which is due to the great hunger of streaming services for content. For Fisser’s company, that doesn’t really matter. When he shoots, it always makes money. But it hurts him a little. “We love cinema, you really have to say that. Personally, I much prefer to produce cinema films than serial, but the market has changed dramatically.”

“Films galore”

Despite all the changes: the good old cinema still exists. In these weeks, the movie theaters in Germany will open again, regionally staggered. “There are plenty of good films,” says Christian Bräuer, chairman of the AG Kino – Gilde eV

“In the next four months, about as many films will be shown in theaters as would normally be spread over an entire year,” he reports. Constantin Film AG, which is both a film distributor and a production company, confirms this. Like all distributors, they have an unusually large number of films on stockpile. That means for the cinema-goers: There is a huge selection of films. This is one of the reasons why the cinema operators are looking at the openings with great confidence. The hope: After the crisis there will be a boom – not only in film production, but also in watching films.

Raw material for batteries Is nickel still in short supply?

Status: 15.06.2021 3:55 p.m.

First a lack of chips, then a lack of wood, soon a lack of nickel? E-mobility also devours resources. Due to the increasing demand for batteries, the demand for nickel is likely to increase strongly. The sufficient supply of the metal nickel could become critical in the next few years. The German Raw Materials Agency (DERA) warns of this in a current analysis. The background to this is the increasing demand generated by the turnaround towards electromobility. “We assume that, depending on the scenario, global nickel demand will increase from around 2.4 million tons today to around 3.4 million tons in 2025,” explains Dr. Michael Szurlies, nickel expert at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR). “Overall, the nickel market is facing a turning point in terms of demand in the coming years, which will lead to a significant shift in market shares within the areas of application.” As a special department of the BGR, DERA advises the federal government, business and NGOs on raw material issues, for example on security of supply and the ecological consequences.

02/18/2021

Nickel is used for batteries

So far, nickel has mainly been used in steel production: around 85 percent is currently used in the manufacture of stainless steel and alloys, as DERA writes. The use in batteries currently accounts for around five percent. That will change in the near future. Because nickel is now a “key raw material” for the transport and energy transition, according to the study. Due to the strong demand generated by the global expansion of electromobility, the experts expect that by 2025, depending on the scenario, the share could be up to 21 percent. This would make batteries the second largest area of ​​application.

07.03.2021

Most of the nickel comes from Indonesia

Indonesia is the world’s largest supplier of nickel. The experts write that the vast majority of the new global production and refining capacities for the metal are expected there by 2025. This leads to a significant increase in the market concentration for nickel – and also has the consequence that the power of the main suppliers increases. Whether prices can also be expected to rise in the future due to rising demand depends on whether supply also increases. It is not excluded. In order to reduce the dependency on international suppliers, consideration is being given to extracting important raw materials – including nickel – in Europe. Experts emphasize that a European supply chain could make economic sense. In January, Peter Buchholz, head of DERA, said it would be good if Europe also built up its own capacities. The projects just have to be cost-competitive.

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Recycling is becoming more important

The automotive industry in particular, but also machine builders with a focus on solar or wind power, steel manufacturers or the IT and medical technology industries are dependent on a continuous supply of basic materials such as nickel. This also applies to so-called rare earths – elements such as cobalt or lithium, which is usually the central raw material for batteries in pure electric drives. The authors of the study also have the issue of sustainability in mind: “In view of the goal of reducing emissions of climate-damaging carbon dioxide through electromobility, in future, apart from questions of availability, the most environmentally friendly and sustainable extraction and processing of nickel will be more important.” One has to ask how more nickel and nickel compounds can be recovered at the end of the life cycle of the products and how less environmentally harmful and at the same time more socially fair promotion can be achieved. On the one hand, there are technological developments towards greater efficiency and fewer emissions. On the other hand, the increasing mining in tropical regions is a problem due to the large amount of land required.

Nationwide electricity generation Coal is overtaking wind power again

Status: 06/11/2021 1:53 p.m.

A spring without storms has led to a decline in wind energy. Coal grew to become the most important energy source in the country in the first quarter. At the same time, the demand for electricity is increasing, says Minister of Economic Affairs Altmaier. Electricity production using coal in Germany overtook wind power again in the first quarter of 2021. According to the Federal Statistical Office, a “windless spring” resulted in almost a third less electricity from wind power. According to the authorities, the gap has been filled by increasing electricity generation from coal and natural gas power plants. From January to March inclusive, a total of 138.2 billion kilowatt hours of electricity was generated and fed into the grid. According to preliminary results from the Federal Office, that was 2.6 percent less than in the first quarter of 2020.

Coal, gas and nuclear power dominate

While the electricity in the same period last year came mainly from renewable energy sources such as wind power, biogas and sun (51.4 percent), coal, gas and nuclear energy dominated at the beginning of this year (59.3 percent). With a share of 28.9 percent of the total amount of electricity fed into the grid, coal was the most important energy source for electricity generation in Germany in the first quarter of this year. The amount of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants increased by more than a quarter (26.8 percent) to almost 40 billion kilowatt hours compared to the same period in the previous year. The amount of electricity from natural gas increased by 24 percent to 22.5 billion kilowatt hours. In contrast, there was a strong minus of almost a third (32.4 percent) in wind power: The feed-in of 33.5 billion kilowatt hours was the lowest value for this energy source for a first quarter since 2018. In the two previous years, there was wind power significantly higher values ​​achieved due to strong spring storms.

Altmaier sees increased demand for electricity

Meanwhile, Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier admitted that his department had so far underestimated how much the demand for electricity in Germany is likely to increase in the course of the energy transition. “Due to the more stringent climate targets in Germany and the EU, we have to assume a significantly higher electricity demand than was previously assumed,” said the CDU politician to Wirtschaftswoche. “My house will submit new calculations for this.” Altmaier said that more energy must be produced, “from all available renewable sources: wind power and photovoltaics”. Altmaier said that he would present specific proposals on how offshore wind power on the high seas and other renewable energies could be expanded more than previously planned. For “green hydrogen” for use in the steel industry or the expansion of electromobility, many experts believe that significantly more electricity will be required in the coming years, which should come from renewable energies.

SPD puts pressure on

The SPD criticized Altmaier: “For months now, the SPD and the entire German industry and energy sector have been calling on the Federal Minister of Economics in vain to anchor realistic electricity requirements and a correspondingly ambitious expansion of wind power and photovoltaics in the EEG,” said parliamentary group vice-president Matthias Miersch of the dpa news agency. If Altmaier now announces new proposals, which can only then be implemented by the next federal government, it is “poor” and unworthy of a federal minister of economics, according to Miersch. The SPD had already submitted proposals months ago which, based on realistic electricity consumption, determine the associated expansion paths for green electricity up to 2030 and contain funds for acquiring space and accelerating it. “We could implement this next week,” said the politician.

More exports in April Exports almost up again Pre-crisis level

Status: 09.06.2021 11:00 a.m.

Thanks to strong demand from Europe and the USA, German companies exported more for the twelfth month in a row in April. Above all, cars “made in Germany” were in demand. The German export economy continues to grow – albeit not quite as strongly as it was recently. In April it achieved an increase of 0.3 percent compared to March. In total, the companies exported goods worth almost 112 billion euros. This was announced by the Federal Statistical Office. It was the twelfth consecutive month of growth in German exports.

48 percent more exported than in April 2020

Compared to the same month last year, the increase was almost 48 percent. However, this plus must be seen against the background that in April 2020 the German economy was fully in corona lockdown. The strongest growth in exports to Great Britain was in April of the current year. 64 percent more goods were sold there – compared to the same month last year. Exports to the EU countries rose by almost 59 percent and to the USA by around 60 percent. 16 percent more goods were exported to China.

German cars pull the most

German cars were the best exports. Car exports rose by 280 percent. However, this was related to the fact that car production had been shut down sharply due to Corona in April 2020. Exports of German electronic goods rose by 36 percent. In the meantime, exports are only 0.5 percent below the level of February 2020. That was the last month before the effects of the Corona crisis became noticeable in Germany and before the restrictions on the economy began.

Delivery bottlenecks and shortages of raw materials easily dealt with

Economists are impressed by Germany’s export strength. Although material shortages and the lack of intermediate products weigh on industrial production, “but at least the industry succeeds in exporting goods,” said VP Bank’s chief economist, Thomas Gitzel. In April, the German industry had produced less than in the previous month due to delivery bottlenecks and scarce raw materials. In May there could be a setback for the German export economy. The export expectations of the industry surveyed by the Ifo Institute fell from 23.9 points in April to 23.0 points.

Optimism for the rest of the year

Despite small skid marks, German exporters are confident for 2021. The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) recently raised its export forecast to plus eight percent. Previously, growth of only six percent was expected.

The new initiative aims to attract tourists to revitalize the Maldives economy, which largely depends on tourism. (Source: MTN) Maldives is an archipelagic country in South Asia, famous for its tropical climate and pristine waters, and depends heavily on tourism. About 67% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is sourced directly and indirectly from the tourism industry. Currently, visitors to the Maldives must provide a negative PCR test for Covid-19 and proof of hotel reservation in order to be admitted. Maldives Tourism Minister Abdulla Mausoom recently said that the Maldives Health Protection Agency is about to announce the lifting of the entry restrictions for tourists who have completed the vaccination. In addition, the country is preparing to implement the 3V strategy – “Visit, Vaccinate, Vacation” to attract and facilitate international tourists. However, the Maldives has not decided on the time of implementing this program. The government will give priority to the people first and foremost, ensuring that all are vaccinated with 2 doses of Covid-19 vaccine. When that process is completed, the country will be ready to vaccinate foreign visitors to visit and travel. To date, 53% of the island nation’s approximately 530,000 residents have received the first shot of the Covid-19 vaccine, which includes 90% of frontline travel workers. It is not clear if tourists will have to pay for the vaccine, but the leader said vaccine supplies should not be an issue for the Maldives. The island nation receives vaccine funding from India, China and the World Health Organization (WHO) COVAX program; In addition, they also ordered more vaccines from Singapore. This year, the Maldives has welcomed 350,000 visitors, mainly visitors from neighboring country India. In addition, a large number of visitors come here under the “workation” model, with longer stays to work remotely. Minister Mausoom said these long-stay guests will also receive two doses of the vaccine. The target for the whole year 2021 of the Maldives is to welcome 1.5 million visitors and 10 million hotel nights. (according to VOV / CNBC)

A series of vibrant cultural events and street festivals are also held throughout the four public holidays with the highlight of art shows and street performances. Tourists experience Danang By Night atmosphere at Da Nang beach. From April 30 to May 2, at Tran Hung Dao Street Park (at the beginning of Dragon Bridge), exciting music nights and fireworks effects will be held on May 1. The street dance program is scheduled to take place from 19:30 – 21:30 on April 24 on Tran Hung Dao Street (from the road from Ly Nam De to Trieu Viet Vuong). The concert “The Rap Show” was held at Asia Park with the appearance of popular rappers. From 20:00 on April 29, at Trung Vuong Theater, there will be the “Water World” congress program, which is a key art event in the series of events announcing the project “Building Da Nang city. school period 2021-2030 “. At the time of 15 – 22:00 from April 30 to May 31, and 4:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. from December 1 to December 31, visitors have the opportunity to fully experience the European Night on top of Ba Na with the following activities: Sunset photo hunting on top of Ba Na, famous Check-in Golden Bridge, panoramic view of Da Nang city at night. Hotels and resorts in the city are offering a discount program from 20 to 50% of the room rate, services, and service use vouchers for guests arriving until December 31, 2021. Some other attractive packages and services were also launched such as Golden Bay with 50% discount on room rate, Grand Mercure with “Hello Summer”, “Drop off fun” at Da Nang Mikazuki Japanese Resorts & Spa, “Buy one One room get one room, buy one night get one night free “at Crowne Plaza … Guests enjoy night food at Son Tra night market, Da Nang. According to the Da Nang Tourism Department, with a series of stimulating activities, the city is expected to welcome nearly 130,000 tourists on this occasion, mainly domestic tourists. The number of guests staying at the facilities during this holiday is estimated at more than 58,600. Hotels in the coastal area, especially along Vo Nguyen Giap, Hoang Sa and Truong Sa are expected to reach over 75% occupancy, many even have to close with guests who book April 30.

Demand for recruitment in the wholesale and retail industries is strong, and job searches in the culture, sports and entertainment industries have increased by more than 112% month-on-month

According to data from 58 City Recruitment Research Institute, in March this year, Chengdu’s recruitment demand ranked second in the country, second only to Dongguan, with an increase of 51.43% from the previous month; job search demand ranked fifth in the country, ranking in Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Chongqing After that, the chain increased by 63.79%. In the first quarter of this year, Sichuan’s GDP exceeded 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.8% year-on-year. As the capital city of Sichuan, Chengdu’s rapid economic growth has driven employment development, especially providing a wealth of recruitment positions and attracting talents. Rong employment.

From an industry perspective, in March this year, the top three industries in Chengdu for recruitment demand were wholesale and retail, information transmission, software and information technology services, transportation, warehousing and postal services. Since the wholesale and retail industry is closely related to national production and life, public data shows that the industry’s contribution to the national GDP in 2018 reached 9%, and it has continued to grow. Therefore, this industry has created more jobs and produced more jobs. Big recruitment demand. After experiencing the special environment of 2020, many companies have accelerated their digital transformation, and short video, live broadcast and other industries have also developed rapidly. Therefore, the demand for new infrastructure services has been increased, and the software and information technology service industries have generated more job needs. At the same time, the huge online purchasing and consumer market also provides large-scale jobs, making the transportation, warehousing and postal industry recruitment demand among the forefront.

1. The data of the Recruitment Research Institute in the same city also shows that the top three industries in Chengdu for job demand are wholesale and retail, information transmission, software and information technology services, and accommodation and catering. As Chengdu is a famous cultural and tourist city, it has many job opportunities in the accommodation and catering industry, relatively high income levels, and broad development space, so it attracts a large number of job seekers.

   Compared with February, the cultural, sports and entertainment industries in Chengdu performed outstandingly. Among them, the demand for recruitment increased by 129.64% month-on-month, and the demand for job hunting increased by 112.6% month-on-month. In recent years, Chengdu has built a cultural and creative center, built more than 60 cultural and creative industrial parks, and issued “Tianfu Cultural Assets Loan” to support the development of cultural and creative enterprises, which has stimulated the growth of employment demand. The substantial increase in the month-on-month recruitment and job hunting in the cultural, sports and entertainment industries in Chengdu also shows that the industry’s vitality has recovered rapidly after the Spring Festival, and the demand for job hunting has shown a strong trend.

   Service industry recruitment demand is booming, general worker recruitment and job hunting supply and demand are both high

2. City Recruitment Research Institute also conducted a statistical analysis of the job-hunting situation in Chengdu from the position dimension. In March this year, the top ten positions in Chengdu for recruitment demand were general workers, operators, packers, assemblers, waiters, apprentices, food delivery staff, security guards, couriers, and sales representatives. This reflects the high demand for manufacturing jobs in Chengdu, and various types of manufacturing jobs rank high in demand for recruitment.

From the perspective of job search, the top 10 jobs in Chengdu are general workers, freight drivers, shop assistants/salesmen, clerks, business drivers, waiters, security guards, sales representatives, chefs/cooks, and cashiers. It can be seen that general workers rank first in job search supply, which is consistent with recruitment needs, but other positions such as freight drivers, shop assistants/sales staff, clerks, business drivers, etc. have a large job search demand, but the job supply is relatively low, and the job demand is not complete. Adapt.

In March of this year, the demand for clerk/sales staff recruitment increased by 111.46% from the previous month, and the demand for security and waiter recruitment also increased by more than 55% from the previous month. With the resumption of work and production after the holiday, the demand for recruitment of service positions such as security guards and waiters has increased significantly. In terms of the month-on-month increase in job search demand, the demand for cashiers ranked first with a month-on-month increase of 139.11%. The growth rates of waiters, front desk/switchboard/reception, and clerk/sales all exceeded 110%. This means that after the Spring Festival, the number of job seekers entering the service industry has risen sharply.

In terms of salary, data from 58 City Recruitment Research Institute show that in March this year, Chengdu paid a monthly salary of 8,717 yuan, ranking eighth in the country. Among the top five positions in Chengdu for recruitment demand, the assembler paid the first place, reaching 8,102 yuan, and the waiter paid a monthly salary of 6,869 yuan, a higher quarter-on-quarter increase, reaching 6.22%. Compared with other types of work, assembly workers have a higher technical content and require employees to have a certain degree of manufacturing experience, so the income level is higher. At the same time, in response to the increase in demand for service jobs after the Spring Festival, many companies have increased salaries to attract talents.

Among the top five jobs in Chengdu with job requirements, the expected salary of freight drivers ranks first, reaching 7927 yuan, which is higher than the average expected monthly salary of 7425 yuan in Chengdu. Freight drivers, as people who drive freight vehicles, transport goods and provide services, need to be accompanied by roads and cars as their homes for a long time, and expect relatively high salaries. Followed by business drivers and general workers, the expected salaries are 7915 yuan and 6,340 yuan respectively, and the expected salaries of clerks, shop assistants/sales staff are also more than 5000 yuan. This shows that the expected monthly salary of a job is closely related to its work intensity and technical requirements.

As a leader in the recruitment industry, 58.com not only relies on the advantages of big data, releases urban employment data, reflects recruitment and job search dynamics, and helps job seekers choose their industries and occupations rationally. It also organizes a series of online recruitment activities to choose ideal employers for job seekers. provide assurance. With 58.com’s high-quality and efficient recruitment services, the majority of job seekers will have a better job search experience in 2021, one step closer to their career dreams.

Ms. Tran Thi Phuong Lan, Acting Director of Hanoi Department of Industry and Trade speaking at the conference. Photo: Phuong Anh / VNA Speaking at the Conference, Ms. Tran Thi Phuong Lan, Acting Director of Hanoi Department of Industry and Trade, said that during the Hanoi centralized promotion program, participating businesses are allowed to carry out the program. promotion, customer gratitude with promotion up to 100%. The program is expected to be a lever to stimulate consumption after the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, creating conditions for a large number of people in the capital to access and purchase tens of thousands of products with deep discounts and quality. guaranteed across the city. Thereby, contributing to the domestic market development goal is associated with the campaign “Vietnamese people give priority to using Vietnamese goods”, promoting production and business, stabilizing prices, stabilizing the market, curb inflation, ensure social security in the capital area. According to Mr. Nguyen Bach Tung, representative of the Organizing Committee of the Program, this second year, Hanoi has implemented the centralized promotion program of Hanoi city. In 2020, the program has brought encouraging results with the revenue of businesses participating in the event increasing from 100% – 200%, the number of other visitors to visit and shopping increased from 200% – 315% compared to normal days. With the results achieved by the program, it contributes to economic development, boost consumption, and perform the dual task of preventing the COVID-19 epidemic and ensuring economic development. Representative of BigC Long Bien Trade Center said that the unit participated in the program and achieved unexpected results. Especially the program “HaNoi Midnight sale without sleep” has attracted a large number of customers to shop, the unit is also very passive, so it has not prepared enough goods to serve the shopping needs of people. This year, the unit continues to register to participate in the program and wants the Organizing Committee to promote the program earlier so that people know and the unit also prepares goods to better serve consumers. This year, the opening ceremony of the program will be held at 8:00 p.m. on April 29 at King Ly Thai To Monument Square, Hoan Kiem District and officially launch demand stimulus, discount and promotion activities focusing on the months. 5, 7 and November. The program has the participation of 30 promotional centers gathering together with 2,000 promotional points throughout Hanoi city. Besides, there will be a series of attractive stimulus events. Accordingly, expected from April 29, 2021 – May 1, 2021, the “Nha Xinh for you” stimulus event at the sidewalk of Dinh Tien Hoang street, Hoan Kiem district with the scale of 25-30 display booths. , promote and stimulate demand in the fields of construction, furniture, home decoration, real estate. Hanoi summer shopping tourism stimulus festival 2021 at 30-50 major tourist and shopping destinations in the area. The launching ceremony of the program is expected to be held on May 21, 2021 and there will be a tourist stimulating booth, summer shopping taking place in 03 days 21-23 at Times City Square / Royal City with the participation of tourism businesses, transportation, airlines, supermarkets, commercial centers … for consumers to experience shopping and promotion. In order to stimulate the promotion and consumption of products of the Program One commune per commune (OCOP) and also the highlight of 2021, Hanoi organized the 2021 Hanoi traditional product stimulus month, the theme “Hanoi. past and present “at about 50-100 business points of participating businesses in the area. The launching ceremony of the program is expected to be held on July 10 and there will be a booth to stimulate tourism, summer shopping taking place in 3 days from 10 to 12/7 at Bat Trang craft village with the participation of businessmen. organizations, individuals trading traditional products, craft villages, OCOP … In November 2021, the Department of Industry and Trade of Hanoi coordinated with the Center for Investment Promotion, Trade and Tourism, to implement the program of the Hanoi Promotion Month in 2021 and the special stimulus and promotion programs on the last occasion. The year includes the opening ceremony of the Promotional Month Hanoi year 2021 on October 29, 2021; the opening ceremony of the “Cash Free Day” event; event “Tourism Promotion Day” in 3 days October 29 – October 31, 2021 …

Produced | Sohu Think Tank

Edit｜ Liu Shijiao

Recently, according to data from a number of online travel platforms, bookings of travel products for Tomb-sweeping Festival and the May 1st holiday are hot, with the number of air tickets booked surpassing the same period in 2019, and air ticket prices have also rebounded, and the fares of some popular routes have increased by more than two According to statistics, Shanghai-Sanya, Beijing-Sanya, and Shanghai-Chongqing fares have increased by 46%, 112%, and 16% respectively year-on-year.

Will there be a compensatory rebound in tourism demand during Qingming and May Day holidays? How has the tourism market recovered this year? Sohu think tank connected with Wang Qiyan, director of the Leisure Economics Research Center of Renmin University of China.

Wang Qiyan said that this year’s Spring Festival, the implementation of the in-situ Chinese New Year policy for safety considerations, does have a backlog of tourism demand, which will be released during the Qingming Festival and the May 1st holiday. But he also emphasized that the Spring Festival in China is a time for family reunion, and the proportion of tourism demand is not very high compared to visiting relatives. Therefore, we need to look at the release and rebound of tourism demand objectively.

Wang Qiyan pointed out that with the rise of local tourism and nearby tourism economies, if the tourism industry wants to seize the opportunity, it needs to focus on three aspects. First of all, providing adequate services is the most fundamental thing for the industry. Second, innovation will always be the theme, and it must be a two-wheel drive of culture and technology. Third, the government should do a good job of supervision, including issues such as not defrauding consumers, which require more attention from the government.

Will outbound tourism resume in the second half of the year? Wang Qiyan said that it is still very difficult to predict. From the perspective of foreign epidemic prevention and control, there is a positive side. For example, some places are also learning China’s vaccination. But there are also negative factors. Some areas still go their own way, don’t wear masks and gather casually. Therefore, we should be cautious about the recovery of situational tourism.

[Sohu Think Tank: Gather the wisdom of scholars and entrepreneurs to get the pulse of economic trends. If you are interested in contributing or contacting on-site reports, interviews, and program cooperation matters, please send an email to zhikucaijing@sohu.com]

Source: GPLP Rhino Finance (ID: gplpcn)

“The first stock of children’s clothing” Annel (002875.SZ) performance report was released. Following the “cutting” of its performance in 2019, its net profit in 2020 has fallen sharply.

On April 15, Annel released the 2020 annual performance bulletin, stating that it achieved operating income of 1.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.26%; a net loss of 47,783,900 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 213.45%.

(Source: Annell’s 2020 performance bulletin)

Public information shows that Anner was founded in 2001 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2017. It is mainly engaged in mid-to-high-end children’s own brand clothing, which is known as the “first share of children’s wear.”

Net profit declined for two consecutive years

Regarding the changes in performance, Annaer said that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, its operating income has declined compared to 2019. The direct sales model has caused the related labor costs, rent and management expenses involved in the external lease of stores to remain relatively rigid. , The provision for asset impairment on the balance of long-term equity investment has caused certain adverse effects on its net profit.

At the same time, according to the announcement, Anner’s 2020 operating profit loss was 57.015 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 217.18%; the total profit loss was 56.809 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 216.02%.

As the “first share of children’s clothing”, Annell, is the decline in its net profit only due to the impact of the epidemic?

In fact, before the epidemic began, Annel’s performance had fallen sharply, and its net profit in 2019 fell by nearly 50% year-on-year.

In 2019, Annel achieved operating income of 1.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.41%; realized a net profit of 42.117 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.49%. The increase in revenue did not increase profit.

(Source: Annel’s 2019 Annual Report)

Annelle did not specifically explain the decline in its net profit in the 2019 annual report.

It is worth noting that the net cash flow generated by the company’s operating activities in 2019 was -46,172,700, a year-on-year decrease of 203.51%. It is understood that this is the first operating cash flow of Annel since its performance was disclosed in 2012. negative.

Business problems “misfortune never comes singly”

Seeing that the performance fell into the situation of “increasing revenue but not profit”, Annal began to find a way to solve it, but the results were very low.

In 2019, Annier increased its capital in Xinyu Infant with 24 million yuan in cash, obtained a 20% stake in Xinyu Infant, and appointed directors, and announced that it will form a synergistic effect with the well-known brand “Sunshine Mouse” under the cooperative enterprise.

Unfortunately, this cooperation lasted less than a year and ended in failure, and the synergistic effect that Annael hoped to form was not achieved.

Affected by the epidemic, Xinyu Yingtong suffered successive losses, coupled with a series of problems such as improper internal management of the company, until 2020, the company has been unable to issue even its annual financial statements.

When I met Xinyu Yingtong, I thought it was already a headache for Annel, but I didn’t expect that the problem that made him even more headache occurred in the same year.

At the beginning of 2019, Annel was brought to court by Honglian International. Honglian International filed a prosecution with the court on the grounds that Annel infringed on its 5 trademark rights, demanding that Annaer stop the infringement, publicly apologize and compensate 61 million yuan for economic losses.

In the end, Annal lost the lawsuit and compensated the other party with 3 million yuan.

However, misfortunes never come singly. After entering 2020, a large number of Annel’s stores have closed down, from 1,505 in 2019 to 1,280 by the end of 2020.

The children’s clothing industry should have been the most potential sector in the footwear industry. In recent years, the compound growth rate of the industry has exceeded 12%. However, the net profit of Annelle has been declining successively. Is the children’s clothing “not easy to sell”? Or is it Annell’s “not selling well” children’s clothes?

(This article is for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice, and operates at your own risk accordingly.)

Lang Kingdom makes learning English easier than ever Recently, the application developer Lang Kingdom, an effective and quite popular English reflex practice tool in the online English learning world, has announced a new feature for users: English reflex practice need. This feature helps learners create lesson content on the app by themselves and practice to memorize reflexes and reflect on the lesson so fluently. With new features, Lang Kingdom becomes a tool to improve students’ English reflex skills in many different disciplines and jobs easier than ever. Lang Kingdom said that the main philosophy in Lang Kingdom’s English learning method is to help students continuously improve their English reflex skills. Helping learners speak English fluently in all contexts, listening means immediately understanding without scratching their heads, opening their mouth and speaking in 7 seconds … overcoming the weakness of Vietnamese English reflexes. Based on that philosophy, the Lang Kingdom team consisting of Vietnamese and foreign English instructors has successfully developed two exclusive methods: Reflection memorization and reflexive responses and the content development team of Lang Kingdom has built a system of diverse and rich lessons to speed up English reflex skills for students. However, these lessons are also stopping at the basic level of daily communication, the practice of English for majors is still limited, but with the new feature of Reflection on Demand as a breakthrough. Break, help personalize each student’s learning. Students will build the content by themselves, create the content on the application and Lang Kingdom will transform that content into a method of reflective memory and reflexive responses, helping learners speed up their English reflex skills. its most effective. This interesting feature will make it no longer difficult to learn specialized English and specific jobs, users in Vietnam can use this feature on the Lang Kingdom application with the latest update. . In addition to thousands of lessons from hundreds of available topics, app learners can create their own lessons based on personal materials. Then Lang Kingdom will record the native voice for the lesson for learners to practice, the device will recognize the user’s voice and report the results of saying right and wrong until the learners speak fluently. In addition, users can choose lessons with a variety of topics created by other users to add to their favorites, or copied and edited for practice. It is known that Lang Kingdom is a startup founded in 2016 in Singapore with the companionship of Mr. Thang Pham, the co-founder of English lecturer, now has an office in District 7, Ho Chi Minh City, specializing in developing application solutions. technology and innovative methods to help users develop English skills. Within 3 years, the Lang Kingdom application has had 165,000 users and the number of hours of reflection training per day is 20,000 hours, of which, the Vietnamese market accounts for 65%, the US accounts for 23.7%, Australia accounts for 5% and other countries. 6.3% …

(Source: koreaittimes)

POSCO, the world’s fifth-largest steel producer by production, said on April 14 that it would build a factory in Korea to extract lithium hydroxide, a key ingredient in electric vehicle battery (EV).

POSCO’s announcement said last week that the Board of Directors approved a plan to complete a factory in the industrial city of Gwangyang in southern Korea by 2023.

The plant, which will start construction in the first half of this year, is expected to have an annual production capacity of 43,000 tons of lithium hydroxide, enough to produce about 1 million electric vehicle batteries.

POSCO said they plan to import spodumene for the extract lithium hydroxide at the factory above from Australia.

In addition, POSCO plans to start building another plant near the Salar del Hombre Muerto salt lake in northern Argentina in the coming months. The plant is expected to have an annual capacity of 25,000 tons of lithium.

POSCO purchased lithium mining rights in Argentina from Australian mining company Galaxy Resources for $ 280 million in 2018. Currently, the steel producer has the mining rights for 22,800 hectares of the area.

According to POSCO, the site is confirmed to have lithium reserves of 13.5 million tons, enough to produce batteries for about 370 million electric cars.

The South Korean giant steel giant has stepped up its activities in the electric vehicle segment in recent years as part of its business diversification strategy.

In February 2021, POSCO Chemical, a subsidiary of POSCO, announced plans to invest 275.8 billion won ($ 248 million) to expand the production capacity of cathode, a key component for batteries. EV for a factory in Gwangyang.

In addition, POSCO Chemical also plans to set up factories in China and Europe to promptly supply cathode to EV battery manufacturers.

The EV battery market is on a strong momentum as automakers around the world are racing to convert to electric and eco-friendly vehicles.

This wave comes in the midst of tightening regulations on greenhouse gas emissions by governments – which scientists say is the cause of global warming.