People wear masks to prevent COVID-19 infection in Manila, Philippines, on March 20, 2021. Photo: THX / TTXVN The ban began to be enforced on March 20 and was initially expected to be lifted on April 21. However, the Philippines decided to extend the ban for more than a week as the Southeast Asian nation recorded an average of 10,000 new infections a day this week. Accordingly, foreigners are not allowed to enter the Philippines, except for some exceptions such as diplomats, medical staff, sailors working on cargo ships, spouses, children of Filipino citizens. together with them and a number of other humanitarian cases. According to Harry Roque, the Philippine President’s spokesman, the ban does not apply to foreign nationals with a waiver issued by the Philippine Foreign Ministry before March 22. As of April 15, the Philippines recorded a total of 904,285 cases of COVID-19, of which 15,594 were fatal. On the same day, the Government of India announced that the monuments, museums and monuments managed by the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) will be closed until May 15, amid the number of cases. COVID-19 infection is increased in this South Asian country. In a statement, ASI stated: “Due to the raging COVID-19 epidemic, the government decided to close all protected monuments, monuments and museums, under ASI’s control, effective immediately and lasts until 5/15/2021 “. India is seeing an increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19. The Ministry of Health of this country on April 16 announced that the country had recorded 217,353 new infections in the past 24 hours. This is the 8th time that India has recorded a record high daily new cases in the past 9 days. The total number of COVID-19 cases in this country is now nearly 14.3 million, only after the US has more than 31 million cases. The total number of COVID-19 deaths in India also increased by 1,185 to 174,308.

Chinese fleets are lined up at the Ba Dau Rock area in the South China Sea. Photo: CNN

Two weeks later, more than 40 Chinese ships remained in the Ba Dau Stone and the statements became more concise. The Philippine Foreign Ministry on April 12 warned China that Manila would issue daily protest diplomatic notes as long as the mainland’s “marine militia” remained in the area. The Philippines authorities have used a phrase similar to the US way of describing the Chinese fleet.

Bloomberg quoted Carl Schuster, former director of missions at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center as commenting: “If your goal is to capture an ocean and atoll, without fighting, this is an excellent dishonesty tactic. Only professional seafarers knew it was a lie. No one allowed their ships to ‘shelter’ in the hurricane zone several weeks before a storm. If they were really commercial ships, it would cost hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars a day to lay these ships idle side by side.

Analysts Andreo Calonzo and Philip Heijmans said Beijing appears to be probing whether the new US President Joe Biden will take any action after pledging to shake hands with allies in the region to prevent Chinese assertiveness or not. Philippine Foreign Minister Teodoro Locsin blamed the Obama administration for failing to stop Beijing in a similar incident in 2012 at Scarborough Shoal.

“This is a test of what the Biden administration is willing to do. The way the US responds will determine the next challenge. For now, everything we (the US) have done is more eloquent than substantive, ”said Schuster, currently professor in military science and diplomacy at the University of Hawaii Pacific. emphasize.

Complex decisions

Last month, the US vowed to stand with the Philippines while accusing China of using “maritime militias to intimidate, provoke and intimidate other countries”. When asked about relations with China at a news conference the same month, President Biden revealed that his administration “would hold China accountable for obeying the rules” in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

Another big problem is how to correct the response. China’s use of commercial fishing vessels resembles a “gray zone” tactic, allowing Beijing to deny that anything is wrong. Sending an aircraft carrier or other warships near the reef risks becoming an overreact, making the United States seem like the aggressor.

On the contrary, doing nothing can give the impression of weakness. Over the past few years, the United States has increased its challenge of China’s sovereignty over the waters, increasing the frequency of free navigation operations around disputed territories. The Biden administration also reaffirmed that the US-Philippines defense treaty covers every attack in the South China Sea, which was made clear under former President Donald Trump after decades of ambiguity.

Another major problem for Mr. Biden is Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte, who has weakened the alliance while praising closer ties with Beijing.

According to Rommel Ong, a retired Philippine Navy admiral and now professor at the Ateneo de Manila University School of Management, under President Duterte there will be only very limited options for the Navy. Manila’s response is believed to be limited to sending objectionable diplomatic notes and anti-China statements via social media.

The Philippines’ statement on April 12 used some of the strongest words, including a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling. The statement also condemns the Chinese Embassy for criticizing the minister. Defense Delfin Lorenzana, who last weekend said the weather was fine and boats had no reason to stay in the Ba Dau Rock area.

Warning

Duterte’s government responded to China’s April 3 statement with a statement that it hopes Filipino officials will “avoid any unprofessional remarks that may add to irrational feelings”. . On April 13, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lap Kien accused the Philippines of violating the United Nations Charter, the Law of the Sea and international law by invoking the 2016 ruling of the United Nations court. But Beijing insisted on rejecting.

Mr. Trieu warned the Philippines should see the situation “objectively and properly, stop exaggerating the problem to avoid any negative effects on the bilateral relationship between the two countries, stability and peace in the country. East Sea”. The Beijing representative also denied that the Chinese ships illegally present in the Ba Dau Rock belonged to the maritime militia.

President Duterte broke his weeks-long silence with an April 13 statement, insisting the dispute would be resolved through “peaceful measures” and would not “shape the relationship. Bilateral”.

“It will not be an obstacle to the positive overall development trajectory of our bilateral friendship,” the Philippine government leader said in the statement, citing increasingly deep cooperation. vaccine against Covid-19 and “economic recovery from the pandemic” between the two sides.

Reputation is compromised

Vaccine access has become a major concern for Mr. Duterte. Manila was shut down again last week as the Philippines faces its worst outbreak and is expecting much of the vaccine supply from Chinese pharmaceutical company Sinovac.

The Philippine President attended a March 29 celebration in which Chinese Ambassador Huang Zilian said the vaccine was a testament to the “closer cooperation in the new era” between the two countries.

Shahriman Lockman, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, said that this time, Washington was “not so naive” after a failed attempt in 2012 to reach a withdrawal agreement. retreating from Scarborough Shoal “did great damage to American prestige in Southeast Asia”. According to Mr. Lockman, the Biden administration is wary of the danger of sinking into this scenario and not knowing if they will eventually be blamed for escalating the situation, which is quite possible while the Philippines capable of reacting only in a perfunctory way.

US and Philippine soldiers in a “Balikatan” exercise

Attempting to repeat the “gray area” strategy.

The question of where the Chinese marine militia ships have been unusually concentrated since the beginning of March 2021 in the Ba Dau rocky area located in the Sinh Ton Dong island cluster in the Spratly archipelago of Vietnam. when the number of more than 200 ships dropped to a few dozen, there was an answer. The latest aerial photographs of the Philippines show that hundreds of Chinese marine militia ships are gathered in Ga Ven rock and Ken Nan rock in the Spratly archipelago of Vietnam.

Images taken by satellite Europe and the US, published by the AFP news agency on April 13, also show that China’s marine militia fleet is present in a large number of hundreds of ships in Ga Ven rock. The pictures taken by the Philippine authorities. According to experts, the Chinese maritime militia fleet is no longer crowded and large rafts like Ba Dau rock but radiates, thickens around Ga Ven rocks and Ken Nan rocks of the Spratly Islands of Vietnam. Male.

Previously, from the beginning of March 2021, Philippine officials and photos taken from satellites said that hundreds of Chinese iron-hulled ships were abnormally concentrated in the waters close to Ba Dau rock in Vietnamese territorial waters. The South is in Sinh Ton Dong island cluster, located in Truong Sa archipelago. Subsequent tallys showed that the number of Chinese iron-hull ships was more than 220, many of which were made into large rafts.

The Chinese side justifies that these are fishing boats, concentrated in Ba Dau rock “due to bad weather”. However, Philippine officials immediately rejected when claiming that the weather in this area is very good, moreover, these ships only turn on the lights all night, but absolutely do not have any fishing activities.

Filipino officials confirmed that hundreds of Chinese iron-hull ships gathered in Ba Dau rock since early March were Chinese marine militia ships disguised as fishing ships. Therefore, the fact that hundreds of marine militia ships have aggressive and aggressive acts on Ba Dau Rock has caused regional nations, the international community and analysts alike to think that Beijing is trying. calculated once again the “gray area” tactic for Ba Dau rock, a shallow beach with an area of ​​about 10km belonging to Sinh Ton Dong island cluster in the Spratly archipelago of Vietnam.

In a strategy throughout the realization of its sovereignty ambitions in the South China Sea, China has adopted the “gray zone” tactic, using the overwhelming power of a disguised fleet of iron-shell fishing vessels that are essentially marine militia ships with the backing of armed ships to illegally occupy control of entities such as the Philippines-controlled Scaborough Shoal in 2012, the Vanh Khan (about 50 nautical miles from Ba Dau) in the Spratly Islands Vietnam in 1995. Thus, the unusual concentration of hundreds of marine militia ships managed by the Chinese army in the Ba Dau Rock under Vietnam’s legal and undisputed sovereignty has caused experts to accept. China may be contemplating a repeat of a dangerous tactic nine years ago to forcefully capture and control a Scaborough.

This concern is more and more basic when hundreds of ships gathered in Ba Dau rock at the same time and radiated Ga Ven rock and Ken Nan rock of the Spratly archipelago of Vietnam, many armed ships, ships. Chinese heavy warfare is also present in the region for its taciturn backing. Most recently, the combat squadron of the Liaodong carrier of China, after conducting exercises in waters near the island of Taiwan, moved southward into the South China Sea. It is reported that the Shandong aircraft carrier combat squadron, the aircraft carrier built by China, is also present in the South China Sea.

Do not accept ostentation, encroachment in the East Sea

A series of moves that show off China’s military power in the South China Sea are concerned by regional countries, the international community, especially countries with interests attached to this sea area with deep concern. . On April 13, the Philippine Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese Ambassador to the country to protest the actions of the Chinese ships at Ba Dau Rock. The Philippine Foreign Ministry earlier also sent a protest note to Beijing, and rejected the Chinese interpretation that disguised iron hulls in Ba Dau rock were just “ordinary fishing boats anchored due to bad weather. “.

At the same time with the strong response through diplomatic channels, the Philippines also took action on the ground to deal with China’s aggressive, aggressive behavior. Most recently, on April 13, the Philippines has deployed 1 more coast guard ship, 4 naval ships and 2 ships of the fisheries protection agency to many Chinese ships that are abnormally concentrated in the South China Sea.

Filipino Defense Minister Delfin Lorenzana on April 10 had a phone call with his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, to discuss the South China Sea situation and the appearance of hundreds of Chinese marine militia ships in the Ba Rock. Head. During the phone call, Mr. Austin proposed a series of measures to strengthen defense cooperation between the US and the Philippines, including “raising awareness of the situation of threats in the South China Sea”, and the Minister of State. rooms of the two countries share a commitment to maintaining close communication.

Just a day after the phone call, the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces (AFP) said on April 11 that the joint exercise with the US named Balikatan was resumed and started from April 12. during 2 weeks with the participation of thousands of soldiers from the two countries. The exercise is said to be the cooperation and action of the Philippines and the US in response to a series of provocations by China in the South China Sea.

Previously, when answering questions from reporters about Vietnam’s reaction to many Chinese ships operating at Ba Dau beach in the Spratly archipelago of Vietnam, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Le Thi Thu Hang affirmed. , the activities of Chinese ships within the territorial sea of ​​Sinh Ton Dong belonging to the Spratlys of Vietnam have violated the sovereignty of Vietnam, violating the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) on the activities of foreign ships in the territorial sea of ​​a coastal country, contrary to the spirit and content of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), complicates the situation, is not beneficial for the negotiation process of a Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China in the South China Sea (COC).

The spokesperson stressed that Vietnam asked China to stop its infringement; respect for the sovereignty of Vietnam; goodwill to implement UNCLOS; strictly comply with the DOC, especially the obligation to restrain, not complicate the situation; create a favorable environment for the COC negotiation process; contribute to maintaining peace, security, stability and legal order at sea in the region.