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Online network evaluation provides people with a channel to immediately obtain the wisdom of the masses. In all online reviews of Amazon and Yelp, positive reviews account for the vast majority, but there are obvious differences in the nature of people’s behaviors towards these items. So how can we learn from the “ocean” of these positive online reviews Identify the truly valuable and successful projects? Can the popular “star ratings” be used as a reliable basis for predicting the success of their projects? Recently, the article Nature human behavior gave answers to these questions. This article is an overview of this paper.

The Jizhi Club has started recruiting, with a number of experts taking the lead to discuss issues in the social, economic and other fields from the interdisciplinary perspective of computing science and complex science. This article is written for members of the Reading Club. The book club lasts for 10-12 weeks and is held every Thursday night. See the end of the article for details.

熊宏晋 | Author

Deng Yixue | Edit

Essay topic:

Mass-scale emotionality reveals human behaviour and marketplace success

Paper URL:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01098-5

1. Extract user sentiment from the “massive” evaluations of online platforms

   At present, with the development of online crowdsourcing platforms on the Internet, the sale of goods or offline services will attach certain evaluation information to its online crowdsourcing platform, and the most common of these is the star-rating evaluation method. This allows potential consumers on its platform to obtain the most direct reference when choosing goods or services in the lowest cost way. But, is this the truth?Research and investigation have proved that these online rating systems have certain limitations: most of their online reviews are positive[1].For example, on Amazon.com, the average star rating is about 4.2 (out of 5), and far more than half of the reviews are 5-star ratings[2].Nearly half of Yelp reviews are 5-star reviews[3], And nearly 90% of Uber reviews may be 5 stars[4].

   The above situation will cause individuals to often face choices among many similar star-rated projects, especially considering that people will not even consider obtaining options with less than 3 stars. Therefore, the star rating itself may not be able to reliably predict the success of its project, and it cannot be used as a valid reference for the true value of the project. Highly concentrated positive evaluation will make it an invalid signal, so how can we obtain effective information from these massive positive evaluations? Professor Matthew D. Rocklage and his research team from the School of Management at the University of Massachusetts in the United States called this challenge of identifying success in a large number of positive reviews as a “massive” evaluation positivity problem. They first proved the universality of this “massive” positivity problem, and proposed that emotional commentary language can provide individuals with more meaningful references. They published this research result on Nature Human Behaviour under the title “Mass-scale emotionality reveals human behaviour and marketplace success”.

   They studied the issue of massive evaluation enthusiasm in four large-scale online evaluation cases, including movie box office revenue, Amazon book sales, followers of new brands in Super Bowl advertisements, and restaurant reservations on Yelp. Through research on four large-scale online information evaluation platforms, they proved that 80% to 100% of online star ratings are positive, and found that online star ratings are unreliable for predicting the behavior and success of a project Yes, that is, more and more positive reviews usually do not predict the success of their projects.but Emotional factors of evaluation text It can be used to predict the behavior of a project and its likelihood of success.This is because emotional language provides an indication for the individual himself that something particularly influential has happened[5，6], So they can be used as a particularly clear signal for individuals to understand their attitudes.This strong signal will in turn lead to a stronger attitude in memory[7], This is a generally accepted factor predicting the influence and persistence of attitudes.

   The four cases they studied are shown below:

2. Emotional factors predict movie box office

   The researchers obtained online reviews of all movies from 2005 to 2018 from Metacritic.com, and used the first 30 user reviews written for each movie to measure the movie’s star rating (0 to 10 stars) and online Emotional language analysis of the evaluation text. They found that the average star rating of a movie would significantly reduce the box office revenue of their movie. And when all movies are included—even those initially negatively rated—star ratings have no significant predictive effect on box office revenue.

   Then they added the average sentiment factor of the review text and the average text valence to the same model as a control. Star ratings are still an important negative predictor of movie box office revenue (see Figure 1 on the left). Most importantly, the emotional factor in the evaluation text is an important positive predictor of future box office revenue (see Figure 1 on the right).

   

   Figure 1. (Left) Predicting the relationship between movie box office revenue and its movie star rating; (Right) Predicting the relationship between movie box office revenue and the emotional factors in the movie review text

3. Book sales: text sentiment is more important than rating

   In the second case study, the researchers predicted the success of all books on Amazon.com from 1995 to 2015 (20 years of data). They again used the first 30 reviews of each book to index the book’s star rating (1-5 stars), text valence, and emotional factors in the text.

   The regression results of its average star rating are mixed. Star rating is a negative factor in predicting the number of book purchases. When books rated as negative are also included, positive star ratings have a significant predictive effect on purchases. However, the overall evidence here is mixed, because in one-third of the book types, star ratings are insignificant or negative predictors.

   When analyzing positively reviewed books, they predicted the book’s purchase volume based on the book’s average star rating and the sentimentality of the text. It found that the average star rating is a negative predictor of purchase, and the emotionality of the text is an important positive predictor. In addition to these effects, more positive emotional language in the first 30 reviews indicates more purchases, and this conclusion is expressed in 93% of the book types.

4. New brand followers in advertising: evaluation predicts fan growth

   In Case Study 3, the researchers examined whether the emotionality of real-time tweets for TV commercials can predict success and human behavior, that is, the increase in the number of new fans of the brand every day. For the 2016 and 2017 Super Bowls, they obtained all real-time tweets that occurred on the day of the Super Bowl, which mentioned the advertisements that were broadcast during the Super Bowl. There are 94 advertisements from 84 companies, and the total number of tweets about these advertisements is 187,206. Then, they used the evaluation dictionary to quantify the average valence and emotional expression of each business in the tweet.

   They found that the number of fans the company had accumulated before the Super Bowl could predict the number of fans they had accumulated after the Super Bowl, but the company’s star ratings on USA Today had no predictive effect on fans.

   Then, they added the text sentiment factor of each ad’s tweet as the main predictor, and added the average valence of the text as a control variable. It found that the star ratings of USA Today and the valence of tweets had no predictive effect on the number of new fans. However, the higher the degree of positive positivity of the textual emotional language of business tweets, the more Facebook fans the company will accumulate in the next two weeks.

5. Restaurant reservations: scores and emotions are both useful

   In Case Study 4, the researchers studied the success of restaurants and the number of reservations based on the top 30 Yelp.com reviews of all restaurants in Chicago, Illinois as of 2017. They use these reviews to index each restaurant’s average star rating (1 to 5 stars), text valence, and text sentimentality.

   This time, their research results are different from the previous three research cases. In terms of restaurant reservations, the average star rating can predict more table reservations. They then added the textual emotional factors of the first 30 reviews of the restaurant and their text valence to the regression model. The average star rating becomes insignificant (see Figure 2 on the left), and the valence of the text is a positive predictor. In addition to these effects, restaurants with more positive emotional language evaluations will get more meal reservations (see Figure 2 on the right).

   

   Figure 2. (Left) Predicting the relationship between table reservations and movie star ratings; (Right) Predicting the relationship between table reservations and the emotional factors in the movie review text

6. “Massive” evaluation enthusiasm problem solutions

   Nowadays, the problem of “massive” evaluation enthusiasm in large-scale online evaluation information has become more and more common, and sometimes accompanied by businesses themselves in order to make their own products or services get better sales, so as to make good reviews. It will further cause the difficulty for mass consumers to identify effective signals. And emotional language evaluation can be the correct way to solve this problem. This calls for relevant third-party platform organizations to pay more attention to the emotional nature of personal attitudes. Platform managers can consider summarizing the language of reviewers and provide an “emotional star rating” to provide individuals with a more meaningful evaluation reference. The exploratory research that is effective in predicting and can replace star ratings will be reserved for researchers who are interested in this research question.

   references:

   [1] Hu, N., Zhang, J. & Pavlou, PA Overcoming the J-shaped distribution of product reviews. Commun. ACM 52, 144–147 (2009).

   [2] Woolf, M. Playing with 80 million Amazon product review ratings using Apache Spark. minimaxir http://minimaxir.com/2017/01/amazon-spark/ (2017).

   [3] Yelp Factsheet (Yelp, 2017); https://www.yelp.com/factsheet

   [4] Athey, S., Castillo, JC & Knoepfle, D. Service quality in the gig economy: empirical evidence about driving quality at Uber. White Paper. https://doi. org/10.2139/ssrn.3499781 (2019).

   [5] Tooby, J. & Cosmides, L. The past explains the present. Ethol. Sociobiol. 11, 375–424 (1990).

   [6] Ekman, PE & Davidson, RJ The Nature of Emotion: Fundamental Questions (Oxford Univ. Press, 1994).

   [7] Rocklage, MD & Fazio, RH Attitude accessibility as a function of emotionality. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 44, 508–520 (2018).

   Social Computing Series Reading Club Starts Recruitment

   With the continuous accumulation of big data and the iterative of digital technology, the intersecting field of social computing is rapidly emerging. Social network analysis, natural language processing, machine learning, system dynamics, multi-agent modeling and other technologies are here. The collision and fusion of one field gradually unearth the deep laws of social behavior in the information age.

   With the theme of “Social Computing”, the Jizhi Club organizes a 10-12 week book club with a number of experts taking the lead to study classics and cutting-edge literature, exchange and stimulate scientific research inspiration. The reading club was initiated by Teacher Wang Shuo, and the expert advisory group included many teachers such as Meng Xiaofeng, Luo Jiade, Wang Xiao, Lu Peng, Wang Jingyuan, and Li Yong.

   For details and registration methods, see:

   Original title: “Frontier of Crowd Wisdom: Public ratings are outdated, emotional ratings are more useful”

   Read the original

Seamless Vietnamese beauties in impressive dress designs by Nguyen Minh Cong. Through the magical hands of Nguyen Minh Cong, almost the cult beauties of showbiz have transformed into sweet but equally sentimental princesses. It can be said that it is rare for any designer to be able to “color pink” the entire entertainment industry as impressively as Nguyen Minh Cong. From the child model Bao Ha, the queens – models like Vo Hoang Yen, Cam Dan, Chau Bui, Tram Anh, Kieu Ngan, Tuong San … to actors – singers like Si Thanh, Thuy Diem, Huong Giang, Minh Hang, Amee, Puka, Truong Quynh Anh, Uyen Linh, Thu Thuy … have all worn his princess designs. The audience will most likely forget the image of the young model Bao Ha in the gorgeous, outstanding, “princess” lace dresses of designer Nguyen Minh Cong. Or the overwhelming beauty of the “muse” Amee when transforming into a princess in the set of photos to launch the “The Princess” collection in 2020 is also extremely impressive. In addition to the characteristic pink color that has helped Vietnamese stars make a strong impression on the red carpet, the princesses of Nguyen Minh Cong also bring sweetness to the audience through poetic pastel tones. Each color is a story of its own, helping the girls shine and leave a mark in everyone’s hearts. Besides the sweetness and innocence, the princess of Nguyen Minh Cong is also sometimes very charming, like when Kieu Ngan wears a light pink lace dress with a modern cut, or Vo Hoang Yen with a costume. Open-shoulder princess dress, combined with a large black belt with personality and mysterious black boots. “I believe that not only artists, but all girls in this world deserve to be the princess in their own story, so, despite being gorgeous and shining, I believe Anyone wearing princess costumes will become extremely suitable and impressive. I am very happy to be remembered as “princess designer”, and I will do my best to keep this “sweet nickname” in everyone’s hearts” – Nguyen Minh Cong confided. Posts : Beautiful Fashion

As the final performance contestant, Vietnamese representative Nguyen Tran Khanh Van stood out with a graceful white Ao Dai coming out of a matching cocoon. On the evening of May 13 (US time) or the morning of May 14 (Vietnam time), the National Costume show of the Miss Universe – Miss Universe 2020 contestants took place in Florida, USA. More than 60 contestants representing countries and territories brought colorful and vivid costumes to represent their homeland. As the final performance contestant, Vietnamese representative Nguyen Tran Khanh Van stood out with a graceful white Ao Dai coming out of a matching cocoon. This costume called “Ken Em” is extremely unique in terms of performance effects, feats and meticulous details. “Ken Em” brings the story from silkworms to Vietnamese clothes, upholding the patient spirit of the Vietnamese despite the ups and downs of the times. “Ken Em” by young designer Khoa Lo has a transformative effect on the stage, inside the cocoon depicts the bustling silk weaving industry, through the reels and pure white silk reels; Ao dai appears silk and smooth, is the combination of much effort and enthusiasm, carrying the message of continuation and development of a Vietnamese craft village story. Although she was injured in the leg, had to stick it up and take medicine to relieve the pain, Khanh Van still performed with great confidence and charisma. The Vietnamese representative received enthusiastic cheers from the audience in the US. Although she was injured in the leg, had to stick it up and take medicine to relieve the pain, Khanh Van still performed with great confidence and charisma. The Vietnamese representative received enthusiastic cheers from the audience in the US. On many beauty forums, fans also immediately praised the Vietnamese representative. The day after the competition night, Miss Universe 2018 Catriona Gray chose Vietnamese beauty as one of the six contestants with her favorite traditional costume, besides the representatives of: Indonesia, Nepal, Peru, Thailand. , Ukraine. Voted by Miss Universe 2018 Catriona Gray Khanh Van and “Ken Em” Ao Dai in a set of photos taken in Vietnam before going to the US to compete in Miss Universe 2020 Many fans were “moved to cry” when watching Khanh Van perform Ao Dai at Miss Universe 2020 contest This is Khanh Van’s second time wearing Ao Dai in the Miss Universe 2020 contest. Less than a day ago, the representative of Vietnam, when he appeared with a blue Ao Dai and lotus accessories at the backstage of the contest, immediately accepted received a lot of praise from domestic and international fans. The discreet but graceful Ao Dai outfit helped Khanh Van show off her curves and elegant and sexy figure. Before entering the important contests of Miss Universe – Miss Universe 2020, Khanh Van chose to wear an Ao Dai and lotus accessories to introduce the typical beautiful image of Vietnamese women to her friends. international. Due to the Covid-19 epidemic, the Miss Universe pageant – Miss Universe 2020 has been postponed to May 2021. The semi-final night of the contest will take place on the evening of May 15 (US time), while the final of Miss Universe 2020 will take place on the evening of May 16 (the morning of May 17 in Vietnam time) in Florida, USA, with the participation of more than 70 contestants from different countries and regions. Miss Universe organizers have just announced the list of final judges for the Miss Universe 2020 contest with 8 female members. This is the rare time that there is no “brother” in the final jury of this top beauty pageant. It is expected that the beauty crowned Miss Universe 2020 will have a rather short term (in just a few months) because at the end of this year, the Miss Universe 2021 contest will be held. This year, Miss Universe applies the voting method, the contestant with the highest number of votes will win a place in the Top 21. Audiences can vote for Khanh Van at the Miss Universe App or website: https://www.missuniverse.com/khanh-van-nguyen-tran. Valid votes are counted from April 8, 2021 to the end of May 15, 2021 (US time). Besides, the National Costume contest will also open the voting gate from May 13, 2021 to the end of May 15, 2021 (US time).

Survival instinct Ueshiba Morihei is famous as the master of the martial art of Aikido. People in the world know that there are many strange things surrounding this character, to the point that they say that no one has been able to knock him down. During a practice session, UeshibaMorihei accepted the challenge of the practitioners, trying to use his whole body to push him off the mat. However, the ancestor remained motionless, until he shouted “Kiai” loudly, causing the students to fall to the sides. Everyone didn’t say a word, just felt shocked because the aftershock of the sound was still echoing in their ears. Sascha Frühholz watched for a long time the videos of the ancestor UeshibaMorihei’s training, with a terrifying “Kiai”, which stunned opponents and momentarily lost their composure. The sound is sometimes like a terrible thunderclap, sometimes like thunder in a thunderstorm. This makes sound scientists like Sascha Frühholz suspicious: does a scream contain such tremendous power? For a martial art like Aikido, shouting “Kiai” represents confidence and fierce will, transforming the human body from sluggish, sluggish state to excited and ready to fight. Our body is entering the subconscious working mechanism, so that when the mind speaks to control behavior and manifests outside, we officially operate in a conscious way. As a kind of signal, Sascha Frühholz believes that screams create multidimensional emotional expression, but are always forgotten by the modern life that has led us to slip into a regular Disney-style safe state, all day long. only laughter and occasional sadness. Sport is like a battle, between winners and losers. Since appearing on Earth, humans have always shown the dominant instinct, wanting to use power to threaten and overwhelm the opponent. Sascha Frühholz associates the shout of “Kiai” with the most primitive weapon of prehistoric times, to ensure the survival of any species. Perhaps, the deepest nature of the scream is like a self-defense shield in the community of creatures, not just humans. In other primates and mammals, scream-like calls are often used as alarm signals specifically for negative and social conflict situations. One summer afternoon in 2019, Harold Gouzoules sat quietly across from Sascha Frühholz inside a soundproof lab. The screams of monkeys from the tape are loud, loud, shrill and make ordinary people feel headaches. They live in a human-like society, and have become so intelligent that they develop distinct scream patterns that not only act as a warning but also reveal the type of predator among them, thereby protecting children and other family members. The two scientists looked at each other in amazement, at the printed sheets of paper crisscrossed with undulating bands of sound waves, representing different pitches and volumes. This led Sascha Frühholz to believe that humans are probably descended from individuals who were good at shouting, as well as having come to an agreement on how to “decode” the screams of their fellow humans, creating a mode of communication. unique news in prehistoric society. The panic-filled scream in “Psycho” has become a cinematic icon. Panic and fear Harold Gouzoules replayed Alfred Hitchcock’s horror masterpiece “Psycho” several times, listening to the haunting desperation hidden within the panicked screams of victim Marion Crane. The scream has become a symbol of a painful death, through the thin veil to reveal the full horror that follows. Human emotions are diverse, and of all the sounds humans make, nothing captures our attention more than a scream. And of the many human screams, the scream of fear is the most prominent. Each scream has at least one point of its own that makes them unique. It could be a low pitch or a chaotic howl, or it sounds like you’re losing control. Screams vary in loudness from 30 to 150 times per second, giving them a unique place in the soundscape of human voices, thus often attracting great attention. No wonder, Marion Crane’s scream in a bloody shower is often considered the scariest ever brought to the silver screen. Then, the image of women screaming in terror became a mainstay of Hollywood – even when the film was silent. Beyond the boundaries of movies, shrill sounds become the fulcrum for people to express their desperate pain, anger at themselves disguised by fear. Harold Gouzoules reminds us of the mystery of the creepy, anguished, painful screams coming from the “deep pit of hell” beneath human feet. Harold Gouzoules flipped through a hundred-page file on the 1970’s “race to the ground”, his eyes fixed on his own conclusion: “I believe that the strange sound comes from 12,000m deep underground. land is not owned by… one person but from… millions of people”. They still haunt humanity to this day, do they come from “cursed souls” in a mysterious unexplored world? Monkeys are so smart that they have developed distinct scream patterns to warn of danger. Game of evolution Alone in a closed room, Sascha Frühholz slowly took a deep breath, then suddenly shouted. Happiness was evident on the scientist’s satisfied face, because the scream unleashed a strong emotion for his idol: The Beatles. Every image of the Beatles’ ferocious ’60s performance appeared in Sascha Frühholz’s mind. The music kept running, people were still swinging, and the screams kept coming, excited but full of obsession. 10 years of existence during the 1960s, The Beatles changed the world a lot, becoming the pride of England in modern history. They brought us “Beatlemania”, the Beatles mania, then when they disbanded in September 1969, fans regretted and couldn’t stop looking forward to a reunion. Sascha Frühholz turned over each page of the Beatles’ research, her eyes stopped at the image of fans’ faces “deformed” because they shouted with joy and enthusiasm when meeting their idols. The scientist has long been skeptical about the true nature of the screams coming from the human throat, criticizing the old theory that always says that screams are painful, full of fear. An encounter with his longtime friend, Dr. Harold Gouzoules, led Sascha Frühholz to interesting conclusions. Not simply a warning like common theories, humans also create high-pitched screams to signal positive emotions such as extreme joy. It sounds simple, but screams actually convey a more complex set of emotions than we think. The odd sound, honed over millions of years, hides many subtle nuances of volume, timing, and inflection that can signal many things. Sascha Frühholz looked up at the scans of the human brain and suddenly noticed that, unlike other human sounds, screams are routed directly to the amygdala – the part of the brain that processes fear, anger, and strong emotions. other paralysis. Evolution has changed the scream, which is no longer a communication signal, stemming from the requirement of complex social context in humans. The two scientists were excited to find three important sites that make up the difference in human screams: the auditory system that analyzes and classifies sounds, the sensory cortex, and the frontal lobes that make decisions about action. . They immediately drew six large circles, each colored with a color representing the six types of emotions that screams contain: from “negative” anger, fear, pain, sadness to “positive.” extreme happiness and joy. They are reminiscent of Edvard Munch’s painting “The Scream”, which depicts an anxious and desperate figure contrasting the landscape with the red sky. The artist’s diary page surprised Frühholz and Gouzoules, when he wrote: “A sentimental scream, of pain and sadness, spreads endlessly through space. If liberated and understood, it will one day turn into a feeling of hope and serenity.”

Le Nam

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