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Investment opportunities What to do with the savings in inflation?

Status: 22.06.2021 12:28 p.m.

Even in times of rising prices and zero interest rates, many Germans have their money in savings books or call money accounts. But if you want to protect your savings from inflation, you need alternatives.

From Lothar Gries, tagesschau.de

Consumer prices in Germany rose by 2.5 percent in May – more than they have been for almost ten years. At the same time, there is practically no more interest on overnight and fixed-term deposits, the most popular form of investment among Germans. Cash is also in great demand. The value of the notes issued by the Bundesbank rose by 9.5 percent last year. A similarly high growth rate was last seen in 2014. At the end of May 2021, banknotes issued by the Bundesbank to the value of 839 billion euros were in circulation, 52 billion or 6.6 percent more than a year earlier. But if you want your money to grow, you have to consider other investments than hoarding cash or putting it on savings accounts. There is no shortage of alternative investment opportunities. The long lucrative federal bonds are no longer one of them. The yields on these securities have fallen below zero since August 2019. Investors who lend money to the German state have to pay for it – a turning point, as they still got a return of five percent at the beginning of the millennium. “Today federal bonds have no place in assets that are designed to maintain or increase in value,” explains Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Deka-Bank, which is part of the savings bank group.

No prospect of rising interest rates

Investors should also not give in to the hope that consumer prices, which have recently risen again, will lead to higher interest rates. Inflation is likely to accelerate further until the end of the year, but the European Central Bank (ECB) has repeatedly emphasized that it will adhere to the zero interest rate policy. The priority is to stimulate the economy again after the corona crisis, said ECB boss Christine Lagarde. In addition, the current rise in inflation is only temporary.

Investments that are considered to be risk-free, such as savings books and fixed-term deposit accounts, no longer offer any prospect of positive returns for the time being. In order for the saved to experience growth, stocks in particular offer themselves as a way out. Fund savings plans, for example, are a good way to get started. Investors pay regular amounts, in many cases from 25 euros upwards, into an investment fund in which various securities are bundled and which is managed by professionals. Alternatively, of course, investors also have the option of taking their money into their own hands and buying shares in individual companies on their own. In the past few years, you couldn’t go wrong when buying technology stocks.

Alternative ETF?

If you don’t dare to do this, but still want to invest in stocks, you can invest your money in a so-called Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). These funds replicate a stock market index (often with so-called derivatives). This can be the German share index (DAX) or other indices such as the US leading index Dow Jones. The performance of an ETF is closely linked to the respective index. As a result, the fees are usually lower than with other funds. Investing in the stock market is of course not without risk: If the index behind an ETF falls because the stocks in it fall, the fund also loses value.

Nevertheless, ETFs are enjoying growing popularity. According to industry experts, there are almost 7,000 of these funds. This is also due to the low interest rate phase. It ensures that more people invest their money in funds than before. Many have done well with this strategy and have achieved better returns than they would have achieved on a call money account. For example, an ETF on the DAX alone has generated a return of 55 percent in the last five years – provided that you kept your nerve at the beginning of the pandemic and did not sell when the markets collapsed by a third in spring 2020.

Gold and open real estate funds

A popular investment, especially in times of crisis, is gold. The corona pandemic has confirmed this again. By early August 2020, the price of a troy ounce (31.1 grams) had risen to an all-time high of $ 2,063, around a third more than at the beginning of the year. But then things went downhill again, to $ 1,684 in March. It is currently $ 1,775. In fact, gold is extremely volatile because the price is mainly driven by demand, because it has no “intrinsic value” like companies do. The precious metal is therefore not considered a reliable investment. There is also the often unsafe storage of bars or coins.

Those who shy away from the capital market and don’t believe in precious metals can also invest their money in real estate funds. They collect capital from investors and invest it in offices, shopping centers, residential buildings or logistics centers. The so-called open real estate funds are particularly popular with private investors. The income from such a fund, i.e. the rental income after deducting costs, is distributed to the owners as profit. With well-managed funds, an annual return of four to five percent can be achieved, a little more than the inflation rate.

Sometimes there is a risk of total loss

But the system has a catch. A minimum holding period of 24 months applies to open-ended real estate funds. An investor must also announce the return of his money to the fund company. Then he will get his system back after twelve months at the earliest. So if you have to get your money at short notice at any time, you should refrain from such investments.

The examples show that there is no shortage of alternatives to the savings book or a federal bond. But if you want to increase your money, you also have to be prepared to take risks. In some cases, for example when purchasing shares, there is even a risk of total loss, as the example of Wirecard recently showed. A look abroad – especially the USA, where far more people own shares than in Germany – shows that long-term wealth can only be built up with investments in the capital market

The market performance of constituent stocks directly affects the net value of the fund, so it is a good angle to study a fund from the composition of constituent stocks. Next, let’s take a look at the constituent stocks of the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF? And what are the characteristics of these constituent stocks?

1. Constituent stocks are concentrated in consumer and other sectors, 80% of the constituent stocks will achieve positive returns in 2020

From the perspective of industry distribution, the 50 component stocks of the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF are mainly concentrated in the fields of daily consumption, optional consumption, finance, real estate and materials. Among them, daily consumption and optional consumption accounted for approximately 32% and 18% respectively, and the total accounted for approximately 50%. The proportion of consumer stocks reaching half is related to the screening indicators of the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF. The consumer industry generally has a higher return on net assets, which can better meet the fund’s requirements for related indicators.

From the perspective of the top ten constituent stocks, as of the end of 2020, the top ten constituent stocks of the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF are Ping An of China, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, Poly Real Estate, China Pacific Insurance, China Shenhua, Conch Cement He Yanghe shares accounted for approximately 13.71%, 10.00%, 9.69%, 6.53%, 5.39%, 4.79%, 3.95%, 3.54%, 3.47 and 3.12% of the fund’s net asset value, respectively. The total weight of the top ten constituent stocks reached approximately 64%, and the total weight of other constituent stocks accounted for approximately 36%

It is worth noting that in 2020, 40 of the 50 constituent stocks of the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF have received positive returns, accounting for up to 80%.

Thanks to the continuously high liquor market, many liquor stocks held by the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF in 2020 have achieved excellent market performance, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu and so on. Among them, Shanxi Fenjiu’s stock price rose 321% last year, Luzhou Laojiao’s annual growth rate reached 164%, Wuliangye’s annual growth rate reached 122%, and Kweichow Moutai’s annual growth rate reached 71%.

In addition, Midea Group, Haitian Flavor, Shuanghui Development, Hualan Bio, Gigabit, and Farah Electronics, which are held by Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF, also recorded good market performance. For example, Midea Group’s share price rose 74% last year, Haitian Flavor’s share price rose 126% last year, and Farah Electronics’ share price rose 123% last year.

2. Multiple index screening, annual adjustments to ensure that the constituent stocks are all high-quality companies

The Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF tracks the yield of the China Securities Dividend Potential Index. The investment style is a balanced market. The constituent stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion account for 42%. The constituent stocks span the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and are representative of the market. The 50 constituent stocks of the fund are all high-quality stocks. These companies have established leading market positions in their respective industries, with strong competitiveness and stable performance, showing large market capitalization, high return on equity, low turnover rate, low volatility and high Growth characteristics.

In order to select high-quality constituent stocks with growth potential, the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF has increased the requirements for corporate profitability indicators and growth capabilities on the basis of the original screening of the dividend potential index. Therefore, the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF has achieved Market performance that is better than the broader market index and better than the index being tracked brings stable and considerable investment returns to investors.

According to Wind data, compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks and all A shares, the dividend potential index constituent stocks have higher average return on equity and earnings per share in the past three years, that is, the index reflecting the company’s profitability is superior. Not only that, compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks and all A shares, the dividend potential index constituent stocks have higher revenue growth and net profit growth in the past three years, that is, the index reflecting the company’s growth ability is superior.

It should be noted that these constituent stocks of the fund are not static. The constituent stocks of the dividend potential index will be re-ranked and adjusted once a year according to the quality factor. This ensures that the companies in the portfolio basket will always be the best companies in the market, making the index Continue to perform well. For example, on December 16, 2019, the component stocks of the Dividend Potential Index underwent a substantial adjustment, including good companies such as Haitian Weiye, Gigabit, and excluding Chaohongji, Guoguang Stock, and Jiangzhong Medicine. Industry and other companies.

3. The fall in valuation of constituent stocks highlights investment advantages

After the overall adjustment after the Spring Festival, the valuation advantages of many leading companies in the industry have begun to become prominent. For example, Kweichow Moutai, a major stock of the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF, had a price-earnings ratio (TTM) of more than 73 times this year, and has now fallen to around 54 times. Another major stock, Midea Group, is no exception. Its price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) has changed from It fell from about 30 times to about 22 times. As of April 15, 2021, the median stock-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the fund’s 50 constituents is about 23 times, and the median price-to-book ratio is about 4 times.

From an investment point of view, these high-quality companies have no problems in their operations, but stock prices have adjusted due to short-term market fluctuations. As their valuations fall, the company’s investment attractiveness has increased. In addition, these constituent stocks themselves have high cash dividends and have great potential for future dividends. When the market adjusts, the dividend rate will rise. They are good dividend-receiving stocks. For example, among the constituent stocks of Shanzheng’s dividend potential ETF, China Fortune Fortune, Wen’s shares, Daqin Railway, China Merchants Shekou, China Shenhua, Gemdale Group, Poly Real Estate and other companies have dividend rates above 5%.

In summary, the constituent stocks of the Shanzheng Dividend Potential ETF are all high-performance benchmarks, which can reflect value and growth. The market performed well last year. Now that the overall valuation is more reasonable after the valuation declines, and the high dividend rate lays a safety margin, this index fund is suitable for investors with low risk appetite and long-term financial planning.