Rising US prices Fed chief is dampening Inflation concerns

Status: 23.06.2021 9:39 a.m.

The head of the US Federal Reserve sees the reason for the current high inflation primarily in the recovery of the economy. The unexpectedly strong effects would soon fade, Powell said.

By Torsten Teichmann, ARD studio Washington

The demand in many industries is greater than the supply, meanwhile the prices for raw materials in the USA are rising, employers are having difficulties filling positions: All these effects of the economic upswing at the end of the corona pandemic are stronger than assumed, the head of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, granted. Nevertheless, there will be no inflation, as in the 1970s, Powell said at a hearing in the US House of Representatives. “These factors will fade over time and we will get back to where we want to go. We are watching this carefully,” he said.

Interest rate hikes planned for 2023

The goal is an inflation rate of just over two percent. In May there was inflation at five percent . The Fed announced last week by the end of 2023, the key interest rate is expected to be increased in two steps to want. But in the short term it remains in the range between 0 and 0.25 percent. Powell had to defend his monetary policy at the hearing in the House of Representatives. Republican MP Steve Scalise accused a visibly annoyed Fed chief that the cheap money policy was harmful to hard-working families.

Steve Scalise criticized Fed policies as harmful to families. Image: REUTERS

Powell replied that lower income groups in particular have not yet benefited from the upswing in the United States. “Real incomes at the lower end of the spectrum are stagnating compared to those at the top,” he said. “Mobility across all income groups has decreased in the US and is now behind that in most other industrialized countries.”

Fed expects economic growth of 6.5 percent

These differences would hold back the US economy and the country as a whole. And that although the Fed is currently assuming that the US economy will grow by 6.5 percent this year with the help of the government’s trillion-dollar stimulus packages

Currency under $ 1.20 How weak is the euro going to be?

Status: 06/18/2021 2:09 p.m.

In the USA there are signs of a turnaround in interest rates, in Europe the key interest rate will probably remain low for a long time to come. That has been burdening the euro for days. How much will the common currency still become cheaper? The prospect of rising interest rates in the US has recently weighed on the euro. The common currency fell in the past few days from rates at 1.22 to below 1.19 US dollars. Experts cited the interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as an explanation for this strong movement. After years of zero interest rate policy, the American monetary authorities had promised interest rate hikes, at least for the longer term. Accordingly, two rate hikes can be expected by 2023.

First of all, the Fed will in all probability cut back its security purchases later in the year, with which it had pushed down long-term interest rates on the bond market in recent years. The expectation of an economic recovery with rising inflation rates alone had pushed the yield on ten-year US government bonds up from around 0.5 percent to just under 1.8 percent since the summer of last year.

Long-term rates still negative

Yields on the German stock market have also risen sharply in recent months, albeit at a significantly lower level to date. The yield on ten-year Bunds is still around minus 0.2 percent. In the low, the interest rate was only around minus 0.67 percent. Despite rising inflation rates in Germany and the euro area, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt unwilling to be, to follow the central bank colleagues in Washington and to consider at least less security purchases in the near future. In May, the inflation rate in the euro zone was 2.0 percent, slightly above the central bank’s price stability target. In Germany they moved Producer prices even rose 7.2 percent in May compared to the previous year and therefore stronger than it has been for almost 13 years. The prices were driven by the sharply rising prices of so-called intermediate goods.

Bundesbank boss for the end of the bond purchases

“In the long run this will work noticeable in consumer prices The economists at Commerzbank said: “A central bank in crisis mode, which, as ECB President Christine Lagarde said in her last press conference, does not even talk about whether a reduction in bond purchases might be necessary. appears well behind the curve in comparison. “In the opinion of the experts, the monetary authorities have thus missed the entry into the exit from the zero interest rate policy.

An opinion that is also shared by the President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann. Weidmann has spoken out in favor of an early end to the trillion dollar bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the pandemic. The focus is on the purchase program called “PEPP” the monetary guardian. “When the emergency for which the PEPP was created is over, it must be ended,” Weidmann told the “Handelsblatt”. But whether Weidmann will prevail is unclear. There are thus signs for the near future that the dollar could retain or even expand its interest rate advantage.

German exporters benefit

For German vacationers who want to spend their free time outside the euro area, that would be bad news – they would have to pay more for foreign currency. The export-oriented German economy, on the other hand, is benefiting from the trend. Last year, just 36 percent of German exports went to the countries of the euro area. And even if you include EU countries with their own currencies such as Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, which has since left the country, the share of exports last year was just over half.

A good sixth of exports even went directly to the USA. In fact, the impact of the dollar rate on German exports is likely to be significantly greater. Because some international currencies are directly linked to the US dollar. These include, for example, the Saudi riyal or the diram of the United Arab Emirates. Both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are countries that traditionally buy and import many German products with the money they earn from oil exports.

Dollar weakness later in the year?

If the US dollar gains strength, German companies have two options. Either they reap additional profits with unchanged prices. Or they react with price cuts in order to gain market share – both attractive prospects for companies.

But at this point in time it seems questionable how long the euro will actually continue to decline. Because for autumn and winter, experts like those at Commerzbank are expecting inflationary dynamics to decline again in the USA. Then “the US dollar euphoria will soon be over”

The sound becomes sharper Fed sees two rate hikes in 2023

Status: 16.06.2021 8:59 p.m.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged. However, the loose monetary policy will not go on forever. The stock markets are falling, and the euro is also falling. Despite the waning corona pandemic and rising inflation rates, the US Federal Reserve continues to keep its key interest rate in a range between 0.00 and 0.25 percent. The monthly bond purchases of $ 120 billion are also expected to continue for the time being. At least until progress is made towards achieving the bank’s goals. In particular, this means “considerable progress in terms of price stability and employment”. This was stated by the monetary authorities after their two-day routine interest rate meeting in Washington. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed is still a long way from achieving its goal: “But we are making good progress.” The bank continues to blame temporary factors for the recently stronger rise in inflation data. At the same time, she expects inflation to rise to 3.4 percent this year and drop to 2.2 percent in 2022. There is also increased economic activity and employment. Powell said the discussion about scaling back the extremely loose monetary policy had begun. The point is when it will reduce its regular bond purchases. However, Powell was not specific. Basically, the Fed chief said that if you will, you have talked about wanting to talk about the subject. With such cautious wording Powell should try to avoid panic-like reactions in the financial markets.

Two rate hikes envisaged in 2023

For the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, however, the monetary authorities signaled that there could be two interest rate hikes of half a percentage point each in 2023. So far, the Fed’s interest rate projection provided for an unchanged monetary policy with a key interest rate close to zero. After all, seven monetary authorities are now even of the opinion that a tightening could come next year. Not only has the interest rate forecast been raised, expectations for economic growth and inflation are also higher in some cases. For this year, the Fed is expecting macroeconomic growth of 7.0 percent instead of the 6.5 percent previously expected.

Share prices are falling

Wall Street reacts with price losses, all leading stock indices give way in an initial reaction. The leading index Dow Jones lost around one percent, the other indices are slightly below. Prices are also falling on the bond market, with the yield on ten-year US government bonds increasing to 1.56 percent. The euro is losing significantly against the dollar and is currently trading at 1.2026 dollars, around one cent less than in today’s trading

Prices rise by five percent Highest US inflation since 2008

Status: 10.06.2021 5:44 p.m.

In the USA, consumer prices have risen as sharply as they did almost 13 years ago – which is felt above all by car buyers. The European Central Bank also expects higher inflation in the euro countries. Is it just a short-term phenomenon or is inflation now making its big comeback? In the USA there is a growing fear of ever higher prices. Some are already pulling Parallels to the 1970s when President Jimmy Carter failed to get a grip on high inflation and job misery. Although the USA is still a long way from the double-digit inflation rates of that time, the price jumps are getting bigger from month to month. After inflation had risen above four percent in April, it has now climbed to 5.0 percent in May. That is the highest rate since August 2008. Experts had only expected an increase in the cost of living of 4.7 percent. “The dreaded five has become a reality,” said market observer Thomas Altmann from investment management company QC Partners.

Federal Reserve under pressure

The strong growth impressively proves that the price surge in April was not a slip-up, said LBBW analyst Dirk Chlench. “The US Federal Reserve is coming under increasing pressure to reconsider its view that the recent price hikes are only of a temporary nature.” As in April, the prices for used cars turned out to be the biggest inflation driver. They rose again strongly – and, according to the US Department of Labor, accounted for around a third of the monthly price increase.

Core inflation at its highest level since 1992

Particularly alarming is core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food. It climbed 3.8 percent in May. The last time there was such a sharp increase was in 1992. In April, the core inflation rate was 3.0 percent. The end of the corona lockdowns and the trillion dollar cash injections by the US government have been driving inflation in the US for months. Prominent economists like Larry Summers, Olivier Blanchard and Mohamed El-Erian warn against underestimating the danger. According to Blanchard, the high government spending under US President Joe Biden could overheat the economy.

Just a passing trend?

Most economists are still looking at the trend with serenity, however. In their opinion, the development is mainly based on temporary factors. The US service sector is back in normal mode in many places. Prices for air travel and hotel accommodation are picking up again and are well above the previous year’s level, says chief economist Thomas Gitzel from VP Bank. “So there are so-called base effects at work once more.” At the same time, the shortage of semiconductors is now at least indirectly affecting consumer prices. If there are no new cars due to a lack of semiconductors, customers switched to used cars. These would have become significantly more expensive. Gitzel predicts that the price level will slowly drop from a high level in the summer months. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) claims that inflation will only pick up temporarily. Because compared to the previous year, the economic downturn in the Corona year 2020 resulted in high rates of price increase. That is why the central bank has not yet seen itself under pressure.

Little movement on Wall Street

Wall Street barely reacted to the renewed surge in inflation. The Dow Jones rose by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 even jumped to a record high. The US dollar gained against the euro. So investors do not anticipate a tightening of monetary policy in the US for the time being. In the eurozone, too, the money locks are still strongly open. The European Central Bank (ECB) is sticking to its trillion-dollar anti-corona crisis program (PEPP) and plans to expand bond purchases in the next quarter compared to the first three months of the year. In doing so, the central bank wants to avoid tightening the financing conditions for companies, states and private households.

ECB raises inflation forecast

The rising inflation hardly worries the euro watchdogs . The higher euro will dampen inflation, said ECB President Christine Lagarde. Nonetheless, the ECB raised its inflation forecast. According to the central bank, inflation should be 1.9 percent in 2021. In March, the ECB was still assuming an increase of 1.5 percent. For 2022, the monetary authorities expect an annual price increase of 1.5 percent and for the following year unchanged at 1.4 percent. According to the ECB, inflation that is too high can lead to a price spiral. Higher prices mean consumers get less goods for their money. So they demand higher wages in order to be able to maintain their standard of living. In turn, in order to pay the higher wages, companies continue to raise the prices of their products. On the other hand, permanently low prices are seen as a risk for the economy: companies and consumers could then postpone investments – in the hope that it will soon become even cheaper. In the medium term, the ECB is aiming for an annual inflation rate of just under two percent. In Germany, the inflation rate is already above this level. In May the Consumer prices compared to the same month last year by 2.5 percent , the highest value since September 2011.