The German government remains committed to completing the Nord Stream 2 project despite strong objections from Washington. Photo: AP According to Bloomberg, Foreign Minister Maas affirmed that it is too early to conclude that the US will not impose additional sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 project. Maas emphasized, in fact, in US politics, neither Democrats nor Republicans have a positive view of the gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. However, Minister Maas expects that the gas cooperation project between Moscow and Berlin will no longer be a conflict in US-German relations. The US has repeatedly voiced its objections and continuously put pressure on the implementation of the Russian gas project. Most recently, Washington imposed sanctions on 13 Russian ships and 3 companies related to the project, but lifted sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG – the company operating the Stream project. The North 2, and CEO Matthias Warnig. Speaking at a press conference on May 19, Foreign Minister Maas said the US decision was “a constructive step”, and affirmed that Berlin would continue to dialogue with its partners in Washington. The German government remains committed to completing the Nord Stream 2 project despite strong objections from Washington, and asserts that this pipeline will help ensure Europe’s energy security and is completely a economic project. In a related development, Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 4 said that the Nord Stream 2 project is ready to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany.

Northern flow 2: Germany receives a request for a building permit, President Biden falls into a ‘dilemma’. (Source: The Brussels Times)

The website Tagesspiegel.de recently published an article titled “A guaranteed gas supply even without the Northern Stream 2 project”.

Accordingly, the Northern Flow 2 gas pipeline project not only supplies gas to Germany and the European Union (EU) but also has strategic implications for the transition of energy, the environment and political geography.

Once again, this has become a central issue in the context of Russia increasing its military forces on the Ukrainian border and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin making his first visit to Germany.

The question is, is this piping system really necessary? What would the consequences be if the pipeline didn’t go into service?

The opinions are mixed

Experts have many different opinions. Some people, like Jens Hobohm from Prognos Institute for Economic Research (Germany), believe that Northern Flow 2 from an energy point of view is necessary and meaningful.

In contrast, expert Claudia Kemfert from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) argues that the answer is “definitely not”.

According to Kemfert, it is not necessary to have any additional infrastructure for the transportation of natural gas from Russia. In addition, the plan to increase natural gas consumption will conflict with the discussed and agreed climate protection goals.

This expert said that there would be no serious problems if the Northern Flow 2 could not be completed and put into operation. If gas from Russia cannot reach Germany through this pipeline system, Germany and Europe will find other energy solutions.

In this regard, new US President Joe Biden has stated that, like his predecessor, Donald Trump, he wants to prevent the completion of the project through the threat of punishing companies involved in the project. .

Still many EU partners believe that, with the assistance of the Northern Flow 2, Germany is acting against the common interests of Europe.

Chairman of the European People’s Party (EPP) group at the European Parliament Manfred Weber said that the Northern Flow 2 project “will definitely not be feasible” if Russian President Vladimir Putin lets the conflict in the region. East Ukraine escalated.

Will the gas supply be at risk then? To answer this question, the forecasts of the amount of gas that Germany and Europe will need in the coming years are central.

From the outset, critics accused the conglomerates that built the pipeline project “inflated” the data on German and European gas demand, making the project indispensable. and completely overwhelmed the opposition.

However, Jens Hobohm believes that this criticism holds true only in previous years, but in recent years, gas consumption in Germany and Europe has increased more than expected due to the need for natural gas. as a bridge for energy transitions.

When countries like Germany give up nuclear power, Poland reduces its dependence on coal, while solar and wind energy are still unable to meet demand, gas is the optimal solution.

According to a study by the Prognos Research Institute, in 2014, the EU consumed 400 billion cubic meters of gas; in 2015, the figure was 419 billion cubic meters and in 2019 it was 470 billion cubic meters.

Consumption figures for 2020 have not been specifically calculated, but according to expert Hobohm, this number is expected to decrease due to the impact of the epidemic of acute respiratory infections Covid-19.

In Germany alone, gas consumption will also increase from 77 billion cubic meters in 2015 to 89 billion cubic meters in 2019, while in 2020 this figure will decrease by about 2.5 percent.

Is that a compelling argument for the construction of the Northern Flow 2 project or would the existing pipes be enough to meet demand?

Is the project really necessary?

If we compare the gas consumption figures for 2019 to 2006, when the first Northern Flow system was planned to be constructed, it can be seen that the consumption volume has never been as high as it was before. Meanwhile, the project construction consortium insists that pipelines are needed as gas consumption will increase continuously. In fact, in 2006, Germany consumed 92 billion cubic meters of gas, while in the EU it was 511 billion cubic meters.

Hobohm adds that Europe’s gas imports from outside Europe depend on how much the continent can produce and to what extent can it meet its own demand?

Currently, the amount of gas produced internally has decreased, partly due to the Netherlands cutting production share faster than planned.

The key point now, experts say, is that the Northern Flow 2 project is still under construction. And Europe has no problems with gas supplies. Whether this project can go into operation or not and never work is an open question.

The later this pipeline is completed, the less necessary it is to be, as the role of natural gas will decline more and more.

Along with that, security policy risks are also very concerned.

First, it is due to the dependence of Europe and Germany on gas from a Russia.

Second, additional risks come from this project because the pipeline runs from Russia through the Baltic Sea and then directly to Germany, not through intermediate states such as Ukraine, Belarus and Poland.

Critics of the project raise two questionable issues.

FirstlyMr. Putin wants free hands to implement his policies with neighboring countries without being afraid to depend on them (when gas exports no longer have to pass through these countries).

Monday, the operation of the Northern Flow 2 system leads to a decrease in the amount of gas flowing through the existing pipes, thereby reducing Ukraine’s income from allowing gas from Russia to transit through its territory. .

The national budget of Kiev will be more than 2 billion euros. Then, the pressure on the EU to increase its aid to Ukraine will grow.

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