Many macro factors will support the market’s growth trend in the whole year 2021. Photo: Duy Dung. The probability of VN-Index falling is not high According to BVSC’s report, compared with the movements of the VN-Index in the past, the current P / E of the VN-Index is already higher than the 5-year average. However, according to BVSC’s observation, at the current P / E, the probability of a market decline is not high. In addition, with the recovery of the economy, according to BVSC’s forecasts, profits of listed businesses will grow by 27.3% by 2021 (compared to 2020). With the profit growth of listed companies, the P / E of the VN-Index is likely to drop to 15 times – lower than the 5-year moving average (16.41 times) of the VN- Index; therefore, the 2021 P / E level of the market is still attractive. BVSC’s experts believe that the Vietnamese market is attractive compared to other markets in the region, but it is very important to the ability to attract foreign capital, connect with the flow of investment capital in the world. equals the valuation of Vietnamese stocks in terms of general ground. Up to now, the market liquidity and the ETFs participating in the market have also contributed to help the Vietnamese market’s valuation ground closer to other markets in the world. As of April 9, 2021, compared to the sample of 12 markets observed by BVSC, including countries in frontier, emerging and developed markets, the P / E of the VN-Index is currently at 19.11 times. – 4th low out of 13 markets followed and just above P / E of Shanghai Index (17.61 times) of China, Hang Seng (14.86 times) of Hong Kong and KOSPI (12.99 times) of Korea. These are also 3 markets with a sharp decrease of more than 10%, in February and March. Meanwhile, “the rate of return on equity of the companies listed on the HSX stock exchange is at the highest level among the markets we monitor. This shows that, in general, with high return on equity, stocks in the VN-Index basket are being traded at very attractive price ranges when compared with other markets. other securities in the region and internationally ”- said BVSC’s expert. The market still maintained an uptrend throughout the year According to experts from BVSC, despite facing an interest rate hike in 2022, the stock market can normally recover and then rebound after early monetary tightening. first. The reason for this is that central banks in many countries often practice monetary tightening since the economy is still in the growth phase, when businesses still have positive business results and do. reduce the impact of increasing operating rates. Therefore, BVSC believes that the world stock market is not too concerned when central banks of countries implement interest rate hikes or monetary tightening for the first time. In the past, markets often reversed and fell into a downward phase at the third rate hike by central banks. For Vietnam, according to BVSC’s experts, with the context that GDP growth is accelerating again and can grow impressively in the second quarter; Other macro indicators are operating stably, supporting business activities; listed companies will have good growth in 2021, especially many industries with high growth in the first quarter such as banking, steel …; and beyond, foreign capital will continue to flow into Vietnam market thanks to its ability to be upgraded and the attractiveness of a dynamic and rapidly growing economy. “These are factors supporting the market’s growth trend in 2021” – stressed BVSC expert. However, BVSC also notes some potential short-term risks. Accordingly, when the positive information has been reflected in the price, the new cash flows into the market cannot keep up with the price increase, the cash flow is withdrawn from major shareholders – or companies that sell stocks. Fund … Besides, when the opportunities to gain from pure stocks derive from cash flow factors, lack of support in the core positive change of the business, will create potential risks. on the ability of the market to correct in the short term./.

The market continuously has sessions with very high liquidity.

The market has become more and more unpredictable when each recovery phase faces the risk of selling goods. There is no bad news, only investor sentiment has changed.

The excitement from the positive developments in the world last night sparked some hope at the beginning of the session. VN-Index opened with a slight drop of only 0.18% and then increased by 0.59% compared to the reference. However, despite trading tens of thousands of billion dong on the HSX, the index still couldn’t increase but just moved sideways.

The movement in a narrow band this morning was even worse than the previous sessions. For example, yesterday, the VN-Index exploded and increased by more than 0.8% before being discharged. This session seems to have prolonged discharge pressure, earlier when the width narrowed and the index was almost only “damped” by VIC and NVL.

VIC struggled for a few minutes at the beginning of the session and started to speed up around 10am. That is when the stocks started to be sold a lot and fell. VIC increased continuously until the end of the morning session, from the reference level to the top of VND 144,100, equivalent to an increase of 2.27%. NVL increased earlier than VIC, hitting the ceiling of 190,600 dong at around 10:10 am. This stock then went sideways close to the ceiling price. The negative signal was that although VIC and NVL gained extremely “hot”, the VN-Index was weaker, until about 11am, it only increased by 4.8 points, to 11h13 it fell back to reference. In the few remaining minutes in the morning session, the index was knocked down very quickly, partly influenced by VIC suddenly fell. At the end of the morning session, the index evaporated 8.8 points compared to the reference.

In the afternoon, VIC recovered a bit, helping the VN-Index less badly. However, the narrow width on this floor still showed that the majority of stocks were sold out too clearly. VIC closed up 1.49% and HSX’s trading system was congested again after 2 hours, it turned down. The index ended the session with a drop of 8.54 points, or 0.68%.

Movements of the VN-Index during the session, the system blocked at the right time when the index got out of the bottom.

Although the decrease was still quite slight like yesterday, the number of decliners on the HSX was 4 times higher than that of the increase, which is much less than the previous session. Although it did not reach the floor level, there were nearly 240 stocks down by over 1 percent, of which about 175 stocks dropped over 2 percent. With such a plunge, the VN-Index is an annoying phenomenon.

Small and medium stocks were the most heavy losers. Midcap decreased by 1.16%, Smallcap decreased by 1.58%. YEG, SHA, QBS, TNI, TLD, DLG, PXT hit the floor. Many stocks fell deeply with very high liquidity such as LDG, QCG, SJF, ITA, FIT … On the contrary, the heavy speculative stocks rose strongly such as ROS, MHC, HQC, FLC, HQC …

Although there are always stocks going against the market under any circumstances, the width is still a reliable indicator of the general price movement level. The stock declined a lot today and the early recovery phase ended quickly. VN30 group alone had up to 15 stocks reversed from the peak, causing losses of over 2%. Stocks like VHM, BID, PLX, STB, and TCH also reversed and dropped over 3%.

This session was at the most exciting intensity since HSX’s system increased the load. This exchange started to block orders from around 2h10 and stopped at the liquidity threshold of 20,048 billion dong, the highest of the week and set a new historical record. Due to congestion, this phase ATC matched only over 56 billion dong, basket VN30 matched 19.6 billion dong.

The frozen market caused the recovery from the bottom of the VN-Index to freeze at a drop of just over 8 points. Like other jam sessions, investors can deduce both directions when the demand did not come in and pushed the market up or sellers could not take advantage to cut further losses.

Foreign investors continued to be net sellers with the scale of VND 560.8 billion on the HSX, focusing on discharging VHM, HPG, and VNM with hundreds of billion VND of each code. CTG, BID, MSN, PLX, and PNJ were also net sold over 20 billion dong. On the buying side, there were NVL, MBB, FLC, HCM, and DXG with strong net buying.