Production drops slightly A lack of material slows down industry

As of: June 8th, 2021 12:32 p.m.

It sounds paradoxical: the order books are full, but production in German industry fell in April. The main reason is the supply bottlenecks for intermediate products such as semiconductors or lumber. In April, industrial production in the German economy fell by one percent compared to March, according to the Federal Ministry of Economics. That is significantly worse than experts had forecast, after a plus of 2.2 percent had been recorded in the previous month. The reason for the decline is the lack of intermediate products such as, which has been widely discussed for a long time Semiconductors or Lumber , which the companies from industry, construction and troubles the energy suppliers.

“A slight disappointment”

The sectors are affected differently by this development. Industrial emissions fell by 0.7 percent. The construction industry recorded a significant minus of 4.3 percent. Energy generation, on the other hand, increased by six percent compared to the previous month. Within the industry, the weighty area of ​​motor vehicles / motor vehicle parts recorded a significant decline of 5.6 percent in a two-month comparison, according to the press release. The comparably weighty mechanical engineering sector, on the other hand, was only slightly below the previous level at minus 0.3 percent. “In view of the high order backlog, that is a slight disappointment,” commented LBBW economist Jens-Oliver Niklasch on the current economic data. This is also how his colleague Alexander Krüger from Bankhaus Lampe sees it: “It is paradoxical: Despite the magnificent order situation, production is not getting underway. Once again it is clear that the industry is still affected by indirect pandemic pressure. Longer delivery times and material bottlenecks are actually signs a boom that is currently not at all. ”

“Material shortage has a full impact”

Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank, is of the opinion that the shortage of materials is now having an impact: “Such a constellation is unparalleled. The industry’s order books are well filled and production is giving way.” Nils Jannsen, Head of Business for Germany at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), also sees the delivery bottlenecks as a major problem, as the companies have not been able to fully process the high incoming orders for several months. “In April, the proportion of companies in the manufacturing sector that reported production disruptions due to a lack of preliminary work was at a record level of more than 40 percent,” said the expert. In addition to the shortage of manufactured intermediate goods, Jannsen also observes transport bottlenecks in shipping. For Andreas Scheuerle, an expert at Dekabank, another aspect is also effective: “Delivery bottlenecks certainly hampered production in April. But they alone do not explain the lower industrial production. Another part of the picture is that the infection situation in Germany is continuing tightened the easing of March again. ”

Production expectations are falling

How could it go on in the future? Apparently, there is a certain skepticism among companies: The production expectations of the industry deteriorated in May after a 30-year high had only been reached in the previous month. The corresponding ifo indicator fell by five to 27 points, as the Ifo Institute announced in its monthly survey of companies. “The picture of production expectations in the individual sectors is very different,” said Ifo expert Klaus Wohlrabe. “The auto industry and its suppliers are significantly lowering their expectations, but continue to expect production increases.” The clothing manufacturers, on the other hand, report for the first time after nine months that they want to expand their production. “Additional boost” The economist Scheuerle emphasizes that the order cushion increased again in April, because orders would develop more strongly than production: “This record high order backlog will secure the recovery in the second half of the year as soon as the bottlenecks ease again.” According to ifw specialist Jannsen, it is currently difficult to predict how long the production disruptions will continue. They would presumably only fade gradually and initially put a brake on the recovery in industry. “As soon as these impairments have been overcome, companies will work off the backlog of orders quickly and industrial production will receive an additional boost.”

From legend to reality In the summer of 2020, the owner of the pub Cervercería Giralda decided to renovate his property during a time of absence due to road construction and the impact of the pandemic. After layers of paint, plaster and ceiling, characteristic colorful geometric patterns and stars gradually emerged. The 12th century Islamic-style sauna was discovered in a famous pub in Seville, Spain. Photo: El Pais. Before that, many local legends and some historical documents suggest that the site may have been an ancient sauna. However, the majority of respondents believe that Giralda’s nostalgic architecture has a hint of neomudéjar style (a type of Moorish architecture commonly found in the Iberian peninsula), or Islamic style. This pub and hotel was rebuilt by architect Vicente Traver on the structure of an old building in the early 1920s. Antonio Castro, one of four co-owners of Giralda, said: “It is rumored that there are many old bathhouses here. However, not all historians agree with that hypothesis, some people did not accept it until later. We are doing some reconstruction work, some archaeologists have participated, and that’s how this bathhouse was discovered. ” “A fateful arrangement of differences” Archaeologist Álvaro Jiménez was one of those who believed that ancient bathhouse rumors were just myths. However, in July 2020, his team was gouging plaster on the ceiling when they discovered many eight-pointed star-shaped skylights. “As soon as we saw the openings in the ceiling, we knew immediately what the precursor of this room was. It cannot be anything but a bathroom, ”Mr. Jiménez said. Eight-pointed star-shaped skylights characterize 12th-century Muslim bathhouses. Photo: Álvaro Jiménez. According to the Guardian The design dates back to the 12th century, when the Almohad Muslim empire ruled much of what is today Spain, Portugal and parts of North Africa. “Generally speaking, this bathhouse has more intact decorations than any known bathhouse on the Iberian peninsula,” said archaeologists. “Everything here is decorated, and fortunately, they still exist today. The base of the wall is white mortar, engraved on it with geometric lines, circles and squares. The most characteristic of the bathrooms is the paintings of red ocher painted with stars and eight-pointed asterisks. These two motifs are interleaved with each other, corresponding to them are sky well holes of similar shape ”, Mr. Jiménez described. The star-shaped pattern and the eight-pointed asterisk that decorated the bathroom were covered with plastering lime. Photo: Álvaro Jiménez. Currently, Giralda still needs to be chiseled out of the lime coating to be able to reveal all the underlying architecture. This old sauna and pub is undergoing further maintenance and repair. It will reopen within two or three weeks. Mr. Jiménez described this finding as “a fateful arrangement of differences”. He said Giralda is reborn to become a miracle. Mr. Castro and his partners expect this discovery to open a new chapter to Giralda’s history. They also hope the pub will bring a new experience to customers. “This place used to be just a pretty famous pub. But now, people will enjoy beer or wine in a 12th-century pub and sauna. It’s great that the architect who built this pub in the 1920s respected the architecture of the bathhouse. . Had it been in someone else’s hands, this place might have been leveled and rebuilt. We are grateful to him, ”he shared.