Rising US prices Fed chief is dampening Inflation concerns

Status: 23.06.2021 9:39 a.m.

The head of the US Federal Reserve sees the reason for the current high inflation primarily in the recovery of the economy. The unexpectedly strong effects would soon fade, Powell said.

By Torsten Teichmann, ARD studio Washington

The demand in many industries is greater than the supply, meanwhile the prices for raw materials in the USA are rising, employers are having difficulties filling positions: All these effects of the economic upswing at the end of the corona pandemic are stronger than assumed, the head of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, granted. Nevertheless, there will be no inflation, as in the 1970s, Powell said at a hearing in the US House of Representatives. “These factors will fade over time and we will get back to where we want to go. We are watching this carefully,” he said.

Interest rate hikes planned for 2023

The goal is an inflation rate of just over two percent. In May there was inflation at five percent . The Fed announced last week by the end of 2023, the key interest rate is expected to be increased in two steps to want. But in the short term it remains in the range between 0 and 0.25 percent. Powell had to defend his monetary policy at the hearing in the House of Representatives. Republican MP Steve Scalise accused a visibly annoyed Fed chief that the cheap money policy was harmful to hard-working families.

Steve Scalise criticized Fed policies as harmful to families. Image: REUTERS

Powell replied that lower income groups in particular have not yet benefited from the upswing in the United States. “Real incomes at the lower end of the spectrum are stagnating compared to those at the top,” he said. “Mobility across all income groups has decreased in the US and is now behind that in most other industrialized countries.”

Fed expects economic growth of 6.5 percent

These differences would hold back the US economy and the country as a whole. And that although the Fed is currently assuming that the US economy will grow by 6.5 percent this year with the help of the government’s trillion-dollar stimulus packages

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Investment opportunities What to do with the savings in inflation?

Status: 22.06.2021 12:28 p.m.

Even in times of rising prices and zero interest rates, many Germans have their money in savings books or call money accounts. But if you want to protect your savings from inflation, you need alternatives.

From Lothar Gries, tagesschau.de

Consumer prices in Germany rose by 2.5 percent in May – more than they have been for almost ten years. At the same time, there is practically no more interest on overnight and fixed-term deposits, the most popular form of investment among Germans. Cash is also in great demand. The value of the notes issued by the Bundesbank rose by 9.5 percent last year. A similarly high growth rate was last seen in 2014. At the end of May 2021, banknotes issued by the Bundesbank to the value of 839 billion euros were in circulation, 52 billion or 6.6 percent more than a year earlier. But if you want your money to grow, you have to consider other investments than hoarding cash or putting it on savings accounts. There is no shortage of alternative investment opportunities. The long lucrative federal bonds are no longer one of them. The yields on these securities have fallen below zero since August 2019. Investors who lend money to the German state have to pay for it – a turning point, as they still got a return of five percent at the beginning of the millennium. “Today federal bonds have no place in assets that are designed to maintain or increase in value,” explains Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Deka-Bank, which is part of the savings bank group.

No prospect of rising interest rates

Investors should also not give in to the hope that consumer prices, which have recently risen again, will lead to higher interest rates. Inflation is likely to accelerate further until the end of the year, but the European Central Bank (ECB) has repeatedly emphasized that it will adhere to the zero interest rate policy. The priority is to stimulate the economy again after the corona crisis, said ECB boss Christine Lagarde. In addition, the current rise in inflation is only temporary.

Investments that are considered to be risk-free, such as savings books and fixed-term deposit accounts, no longer offer any prospect of positive returns for the time being. In order for the saved to experience growth, stocks in particular offer themselves as a way out. Fund savings plans, for example, are a good way to get started. Investors pay regular amounts, in many cases from 25 euros upwards, into an investment fund in which various securities are bundled and which is managed by professionals. Alternatively, of course, investors also have the option of taking their money into their own hands and buying shares in individual companies on their own. In the past few years, you couldn’t go wrong when buying technology stocks.

Alternative ETF?

If you don’t dare to do this, but still want to invest in stocks, you can invest your money in a so-called Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). These funds replicate a stock market index (often with so-called derivatives). This can be the German share index (DAX) or other indices such as the US leading index Dow Jones. The performance of an ETF is closely linked to the respective index. As a result, the fees are usually lower than with other funds. Investing in the stock market is of course not without risk: If the index behind an ETF falls because the stocks in it fall, the fund also loses value.

Nevertheless, ETFs are enjoying growing popularity. According to industry experts, there are almost 7,000 of these funds. This is also due to the low interest rate phase. It ensures that more people invest their money in funds than before. Many have done well with this strategy and have achieved better returns than they would have achieved on a call money account. For example, an ETF on the DAX alone has generated a return of 55 percent in the last five years – provided that you kept your nerve at the beginning of the pandemic and did not sell when the markets collapsed by a third in spring 2020.

Gold and open real estate funds

A popular investment, especially in times of crisis, is gold. The corona pandemic has confirmed this again. By early August 2020, the price of a troy ounce (31.1 grams) had risen to an all-time high of $ 2,063, around a third more than at the beginning of the year. But then things went downhill again, to $ 1,684 in March. It is currently $ 1,775. In fact, gold is extremely volatile because the price is mainly driven by demand, because it has no “intrinsic value” like companies do. The precious metal is therefore not considered a reliable investment. There is also the often unsafe storage of bars or coins.

Those who shy away from the capital market and don’t believe in precious metals can also invest their money in real estate funds. They collect capital from investors and invest it in offices, shopping centers, residential buildings or logistics centers. The so-called open real estate funds are particularly popular with private investors. The income from such a fund, i.e. the rental income after deducting costs, is distributed to the owners as profit. With well-managed funds, an annual return of four to five percent can be achieved, a little more than the inflation rate.

Sometimes there is a risk of total loss

But the system has a catch. A minimum holding period of 24 months applies to open-ended real estate funds. An investor must also announce the return of his money to the fund company. Then he will get his system back after twelve months at the earliest. So if you have to get your money at short notice at any time, you should refrain from such investments.

The examples show that there is no shortage of alternatives to the savings book or a federal bond. But if you want to increase your money, you also have to be prepared to take risks. In some cases, for example when purchasing shares, there is even a risk of total loss, as the example of Wirecard recently showed. A look abroad – especially the USA, where far more people own shares than in Germany – shows that long-term wealth can only be built up with investments in the capital market

When most market participants analyzed the Fed’s decision, they generally believed that the U.S. monetary policy was only a signal of a turnaround, but no real change occurred, because the federal benchmark interest rate and QE policy remained unchanged, while the excess reserve interest rate and overnight reversal The 5 basis point increase in the repurchase rate is nothing but a technical adjustment.

“However, judging from the actual effect, this technical adjustment has actually played a role in raising interest rates.” In the “Interpretation of How the Fed’s Interest Rate Meeting Understands the Tightening Signals” in the 172nd issue of the Hong Academy Micro Class on June 19, Song Hongbing said After the Fed raised the “ceiling” and “floor” interest rates, it was tantamount to raising the monetary policy interest rate by 4 basis points. This is a tangible increase in interest rates and simultaneously raised interest rates in all money markets.

The excess reserve interest rate is the ceiling interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase is the floor interest rate. As the core interest rate of monetary policy-the federal benchmark interest rate, it is suspended between the ceiling and the floor. For example, the current benchmark interest rate range is 0-0.25%, and the Fed’s expected target value is 0.1% between the two.

When the floor rate (overnight reverse repo rate) was increased from 0 to 0.05%, the repo market rate was immediately increased to 0.05%. why?

Because all those who have money and want to lend can lend money to the Federal Reserve and get Treasury bonds as collateral. There is no risk at all and a steady profit of 5 basis points. In the repo market, any transaction below 5 basis points cannot be done. This is the role of the overnight reverse repo rate as the “floor” rate. At the same time, the yield of short-term treasury bonds also rose immediately. For example, the yield of 3-month treasury bonds is often as low as 0.01% to 0.025%. After the local board interest rate rises by 5 basis points, the yield of 3-month treasury bonds immediately rises to 0.038%, which is 3 The highest value since the month.

At present, interest rates in several money markets have gone up across the board, and eventually the federal funds rate, the most important monetary policy rate, immediately jumped from 0.06% to 0.1%.

“For this reason, the Fed is currently turning itself into a’super pump’.” Song Hongbing said that while the Fed was forced to “release water,” it was also being forced to “pump water.” This self-contradictory approach will cause a huge financial idling and will greatly push up inflation.

According to current data calculations, the Fed will continue to inject about US$120 billion in liquidity into the financial market every month before reducing debt purchases. In addition, the U.S. Treasury Department has $765 billion in cash in the Fed’s checking account. According to the plan of Secretary of the Treasury Yellen, it should be reduced to the level of 500 billion US dollars by the end of June, which means that another 265 billion US dollars of “flood” will flood the financial markets. Although this plan may be slowed down to the second half of the year to be implemented, but in the next six months, there will be about a trillion dollars of currency floods that need to be discharged.

Considering that part of the funds may flow into the overseas US dollar market and the other part into the real economy, Song Hongbing predicts that there may be a flood of US$500 billion in the currency market before the end of the year. In addition, there are also the funding variables of “Two Housing” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two federal mortgage financing companies with government properties). Therefore, the scale of overnight reverse repurchase may continue to rise, and it may be a high probability event to exceed 1 trillion US dollars in the second half of the year, and it is estimated to be close to 1.3 trillion or even higher by the end of the year.

However, we know that all positive feedback systems are difficult to sustain, because it will require more and more external energy injection, and the scale will become larger and the speed will become more and more fierce. When the outside world cannot meet this energy demand, it will eventually become Self implosion is the end.

When short-term interest rates continue to approach and impact the red line of negative interest rates, the phenomenon that the extremes of things must be reversed will naturally occur. This is the sudden increase in the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase. The time is at the end of March this year. After April, the volume began to rise, and in May it entered a state of soaring. After June, it began to soar.

If QE money printing is to release water, then overnight reverse repurchase is a super pump. While the Fed is working hard to release water, the other side is desperately pumping water. The U.S. dollar flows out of the Fed and stays on the accounts of primary dealers and major banks for a while. The balance sheet has reached its limit, and these currency floods immediately overflowed onto the balance sheet of money market funds. However, due to the asset famine, these currency floods have nowhere to go. In the end, they can only flow back to the Federal Reserve through reverse repurchase overnight. This kind of idling of economically worthless funds has no meaning other than leaving Wall Street empty. . The point is, can this water-pumping currency game last forever? Can this positive feedback system work indefinitely? If it can operate indefinitely, this will be a state where Wall Street’s incomparably wonderful dreams come true. Stocks will always rise, financial assets will appreciate infinitely, and money will be made soft. This hearing violates the law of conservation of energy. The “blind spot” of this game mechanism is inflation. Logically speaking, if “water-pumping” continues to operate, and becomes faster and larger in scale, all money will be made by Wall Street, and the world’s wealth cake will eventually go to Wall Street. Theoretically speaking, it is impossible for currency to seal idling in the financial market. Whether it is stocks or national debt, the person who gets the money will spend it. If there is too much money and things cannot be bought, prices will naturally rise. Severe inflation will force the central bank to raise interest rates, thereby disrupting the operation of the positive feedback system. While being forced to constantly “release water”, while being forced to “pump water” continuously. This self-contradictory approach is brewing a bigger crisis

Marktbericht

Deutliche Kursgewinne Die Wall-Street meldet sich zurück

Stand: 21.06.2021 22:24 Uhr

Ähnlich wie beim DAX haben auch die US-Märkte zum Wochenstart in einer Gegenbewegung deutlich zugelegt. Zinsängste sind etwas abgeflaut. Nun blickt alles auf Notenbank-Chef Jerome Powell. Die New Yorker Börsen haben zum Wochenstart den Schock vom Freitag wieder abgeschüttelt und deutlich Boden gut gemacht. Unter Führung des Leitindex Dow Jones, der 1,76 Prozent oder fast 600 Punkte zulegte auf 33.876 Punkte, lagen zum Handelsschluss alle Indizes komfortabel im grünen Bereich. Auch die zunächst schwächer gestartete Technologiebörse Nasdaq war im Verlauf ins Plus gedreht und gewann 0,8 Prozent. Der Auswahlindex Nasdaq 100 ging bei 14.137 Punkten um 0,6 Prozent ebenfalls höher aus dem Handel. Der breiter gefasste S&P-500-Index baute seine Anfangsgewinne aus und schloss 1,4 Prozent höher bei 4224 Punkten. Zum Wochenstart standen kaum nennenswerte Konjunkturdaten auf dem Programm. Von dieser Seite blieb der Kursimpuls also gering.

Alle Augen auf Jerome Powell

Für solche Kursimpulse ist nicht nur für die US-Börsen derzeit fast ausschließlich die Notenbank Federal Reserve zuständig. Die Augen der Investoren richten sich nun auf eine Anhörung des Fed-Chefs Jerome Powell vor Teilen des US-Kongresses an diesem Dienstag. Dabei geht es um die Reaktion der Notenbank auf die Corona-Pandemie. Die Äußerungen Powells dürften genau auf Hinweise zur künftigen Geldpolitik abgeklopft werden. “In gewisser Hinsicht verhalten sich die Anleger so, als ob die US-Notenbank ihre Unterstützung für die US-Wirtschaft vollständig einstellen würde, auch wenn nichts weiter von der Wahrheit entfernt sein könnte”, schrieb Marktanalyst Michael Hewson vom Handelshaus CMC Markets. Eine etwas differenziertere Betrachtung des jüngsten Zinsbeschlusses der Fed also. “Wir glauben, dass der neue Ausblick der Fed in absehbarer Zeit nicht zu deutlich höheren Leitzinsen führen wird”, so die Analysten von BlackRock. Unter den 30 Einzelwerten im Dow Jones gab es keinen einzigen Verlierer, Tagessieger waren die Papiere des Kreditkartenriesen American Express. Für Finanzwerte würden höhere Zinsen Rückenwind bedeuten, steigen dadurch doch die Margen und somit die Gewinne.

DAX schließt am Tageshoch

Aufatmen auch an der heimischen Börse. Der DAX hat nach schwachem Start im Handelsverlauf die Kurve gekriegt und damit nach den deutlichen Verlusten vom Freitag Stärke gezeigt. Dies trotz der sich abzeichnenden Zinswende in den USA, die die Anleger aber weiter umtreibt und auf der Tagesordnung der Börse(n) weiter ganz oben steht. Denn die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve hat zwar klar gemacht, dass die Zinsen perspektivisch wieder anziehen werden, bis es aber soweit ist, könnte es noch dauern. Am Ende eines volatilen Handelstages schloss der deutsche Leitindex bei 15.603 Punkten ein Prozent fester und zudem nur knapp unter seinem Tageshoch bei 15.606 Punkten. Zum Handelsstart hatte es allerdings nicht nach einem Happy-End ausgesehen, das Tagestief lag bei 15.309 Punkte immerhin rund 300 Zähler tiefer als der Schlusskurs. Positiv auch, dass der DAX sogar auf Schlusskursbasis über seiner technischen Unterstützung von 15.500 Punkten endete, was eine gewisse Absicherung nach unten bietet.

Das neue Szenario ist noch nicht in trockenen Tüchern

Aber trotz der Intra-Day-Erholung: Potenzielles Störfeuer gibt es weiterhin reichlich. Denn der Fed-Beschluss ist nicht in Stein gemeißelt, was den Zeitpunkt erster geldpolitischer Straffungen betrifft. James Bullard, der Präsident der regionalen US-Notenbank Fed von St. Louis, hatte am Freitag eine Leitzinserhöhung bereits im kommenden Jahr ins Spiel gebracht. Prompt sackten die Märkte ab. Es dürfte daher wohl noch etwas dauern, bis sich die Anleger mit dem neuen und wohl auch volatileren Umfeld für die Kapitalmärkte arrangiert haben. “Das Interessante an dieser Korrektur ist, dass sie verzögert war, so dass der Markt eine Weile brauchte, um die Nachrichten zu verarbeiten”, sagte Sebastien Galy, Stratege bei Nordea Asset Management.

Von der EZB droht keine Gefahr

Während die Anleger über den Fed-Kurs rätseln, können sie sich dies in Bezug auf die EZB sparen. Trotz der zuletzt auch in Europa anziehenden Inflationsgefahren ist von einem Ende der ultralockeren Geldpolitik weit und breit nichts in Sicht. Das machte heute Bankchefin Christine Lagarde nochmals deutlich. Es gelte weiter wachsam zu bleiben, auch wenn sich der Ausblick angesichts der verbesserten Corona-Lage “in der Tat” aufhelle, sagte Lagarde am Montag in einer Videoschalte vor einem Ausschuss des Europa-Parlaments. Die geldpolitische Unterstützung müsse bis weit in die Phase der Konjunkturerholung hinein eine Brückenfunktion einnehmen. Lagarde machte einmal mehr deutlich, dass die EZB den jüngsten Anstieg der Inflation als vorübergehend ansieht.

Christine Lagarde

Autoaktien, Siemens, BASF & Co. gefragt

Nach den stärkeren Verlusten am Freitag stiegen heute erste Schnäppchenjäger auf tieferem Niveau wieder ein. Teilweise gab es bei den Einzeltiteln deutliche Gewinne von über zwei Prozent. Gefragt waren Autoaktien, aber auch andere Zykliker – also Unternehmen, deren Geschäfte stark vom Konjunkturverlauf abhängen – wie Siemens, BASF oder Covestro. Rückenwind erhielten die exportstarken Branchen derzeit vom zuletzt schwachen Euro, ein Effekt, der nicht zu unterschätzen ist. Am Indexende standen die beiden Fresenius-Papiere, und auch Bayer gaben nach. Gegen den Leverkusener Konzern wurde am Abend eine weitere Klage wegen des umstrittenen Unkrautvernichters Glyphosat vor Gericht in den USA eingereicht.

Sorgen um Delta-Variante

Potenzielles Störfeuer könnte aber auch noch von einer anderen Seite kommen. Denn mit der sich ausbreitenden hochansteckenden Delta-Variante des Coronavirus meldet sich derzeit ein alter Bekannter wieder zurück. Eine Entwicklung, auf die nicht nur die Märkte gerne verzichtet hätten – und die natürlich allemal das Zeug dazu hat, für viel Unsicherheit zu sorgen. Zwar sind die Infektionszahlen hierzulande (noch) niedrig; die Frage ist aber nicht, ob sich das Virus hierzulande stärker verbreiten wird, sondern wie und wann. Der Impfkampagne kommt damit auch für die Kapitalmärkte noch größere Bedeutung zu als ohnehin.

Euro erholt sich

Volatil geht es heute auch am Devisenmarkt zu. Die neuen Zinsspekulationen in den USA haben dem Dollar zu Wochenbeginn zunächst größeren Auftrieb verleihen, der Greenback stieg im frühen Handel gegen den Euro bis auf 1,1848 Dollar. Mittlerweile sind die Anfangsgewinne aber in einer starken Gegenbewegung wieder verloren gegangen. Der Euro liegt im US-Handel bei 1,1917 Dollar sogar wieder knapp ein halbes Prozent im Plus. Seit Mittwoch hat der Euro nach dem Zinsentscheid der Fed allerdings unter starkem Druck gestanden und bis zu knapp drei US-Cent an Wert verloren. Aus Händlerkreisen hieß es, dass die Erholung am Aktienmarkt dem Euro Rückenwind gegeben habe. Der Dollar gilt in Zeiten hoher Unsicherheit und Krisenzeiten als sicherer Hafen. Wenn die Anleger dann wieder bereit sind, größere Risiken einzugehen, fällt er meist wieder zurück. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) setzte den Referenzkurs auf 1,1891 (Freitag: 1,1898) US-Dollar fest.

Iran-Wahl stützt die Ölpreise

Die Ölpreise sind am Montag gestiegen. Bis zum Abend haben sie leichte Gewinne aus dem frühen Handel deutlich ausgebaut. Marktbeobachter verwiesen auf eine allgemein freundliche Stimmung an den Finanzmärkten und die jüngste Kursentwicklung am Devisenmarkt. Die Ölpreise erhielten am Nachmittag Auftrieb durch eine leichte Kursschwäche des US-Dollar. Zugleich erhalten die Preise Unterstützung durch den Wahlausgang im Iran und die nach wie vor ergebnislosen Verhandlungen über das iranische Atomprogramm: Die US-Sanktionen dürften so schnell nicht gelockert werden, mit einem größeren Ölangebot aus dem Iran ist vorerst nicht zu rechnen.

“Todeskreuz” und China-Sorgen beim Bitcoin

Kryptowährung geraten zu Wochenbeginn deutlich unter Druck. Der Bitcoin fällt auf rund 32.400 Dollar und damit rund neun Prozent zurück. Als Grund wird auf das harte Vorgehen Chinas gegen das Krypto-Mining verwiesen. Darunter versteht man die digitale Herstellung von Internet-Währungen über komplizierte Rechenoperationen. Zudem erhöht China den Druck auf die heimischen Banken: Diese sollten sich nicht in Kryptowährungsgeschäften engagieren. Charttechnische Verkaufssignale beschleunigen die Talfahrt des Bitcoin zusätzlich. Am Wochenende hatte der Durchschnittskurs der 50 vorangegangenen Tage den 200-Tages-Schnitt unterschritten. Diese Konstellation heißt im Börsenjargon “Todeskreuz” und gilt als Startschuss für weitere Verkäufe.

Auto1 ab heute im MDAX

Heute sind die von der Deutschen Börse beschlossenen Index-Änderungen wirksam geworden. Neu im MDAX sind die Papiere des Online-Gebrauchtwagenhändlers Auto1. Auch im SDAX gibt es einige Änderungen, so steigen etwa die Anteile der Vodafone-Funkmastentochter Vantage Towers in den Nebenwerteindex auf. Im DAX bleibt alles beim Alten.

BMW-Chef verteidigt Verbrenner-Strategie und will Kosten deutlich senken

BMW-Chef Oliver Zipse hat die Strategie seines Konzerns verteidigt, langsamer als etwa der heimische Konkurrent Audi aus der Produktion klassischer Verbrennermotoren auszusteigen. “Die wahren Entscheider in unserer Industrie sind die Kunden”, sagte der Manager der “Passauer Neuen Presse”. Zwar werde es in den kommenden 15 Jahren Städte, Regionen und Länder geben, in denen sich der Transformationsprozess zur Elektromobilität vollständig vollziehe. Aber in der Summe der weltweit 140 BMW-Märkte werde das nicht der Fall sein. Zudem will das Unternehmen die Herstellungskosten deutlich senken. “Wir werden bis 2025 die Produktionskosten pro Fahrzeug um 25 Prozent senken – gemessen an dem Niveau von 2019”, sagte Vorstandsmitglied Milan Nedeljkovic dem “Handelsblatt” (Dienstagausgabe). Dies solle über die Digitalisierung von Planungsprozessen, eine schlankere Logistik sowie eine bessere Auslastung der bestehenden Werke geschehen, hieß es vorab.

Porsche produziert künftig Batteriezellen im kleinen Stil

Der zum VW-Konzern gehörende Sportwagenbauer Porsche will zusammen mit einem Partner im kleinen Umfang Hochleistungs-Batteriezellen herstellen. Die Batteriefabrik soll im Großraum Stuttgart entstehen, wie Porsche mitteilte. Die Batteriezelle sei der Brennraum der Zukunft. Die geplante Fabrik soll einmal eine Kapazität von 100 Megawattstunden pro Jahr erreichen. Das seien Batteriezellen für 1000 Autos. Produktionsstart soll 2024 sein. Am Abend berichteten Medien, dass Varta als Batteriezulieferer für Porsche einsteigen wird. Varta hatte im Frühjahr erklärt, künftig Zellen für die Elektromobilität herstellen zu wollen.

Derweil bahnt sich bei der ebenfalls zum Konzern gehörenden italienischen Sportwagentochter Bugatti eine Entscheidung an. Der Konzern will über die Zukunft der Luxusmarke bis Ende Juni entscheiden. Das kündigte Konzernvorstand und Porsche-Chef Oliver Blume am Montag an.

BaFin prüft CureVac-Crash

Der Kursabsturz der CureVac-Aktie hat die Finanzaufsicht BaFin auf den Plan gerufen. Die BaFin schaue sich außergewöhnliche Kursbewegungen dahingehend an, ob möglicherweise Verdachtsmomente für Marktmissbrauch oder Marktmanipulation vorliegen, sagte ein Behördensprecher heute. Die Aktie von CureVac war nach enttäuschenden Studienergebnissen bei dem Covid-Impfstoff des Tübinger Biotechunternehmens am Donnerstag um mehr als 40 Prozent eingebrochen. Die “Rheinische Post” hatte zuvor unter Berufung auf Branchenkreise berichtet, dass die BaFin dem Verdacht nachgehe, ob jemand aus den Unternehmen CureVac oder Bayer sein Insiderwissen genutzt und rechtzeitig Aktien abgestoßen haben könnte. Bayer ist Kooperationspartner von CureVac.

Drägerwerk hebt die Prognose an

Der Medizin- und Sicherheitstechnik-Konzern Drägerwerk stellt seinen Aktionären für 2021 nach bislang guten Geschäften einen geringeren Umsatzrückgang in Aussicht als bisher befürchtet. So erwartet der SDAX-Konzern jetzt nur noch einen währungsbereinigten Rückgang der Erlöse um zwei bis sechs Prozent, wie er am Montagabend in Lübeck nach Börsenschluss mitteilte. Bisher hatte das Unternehmen mit einem Abfall von sieben bis elf Prozent gerechnet. Auch bei der Marge des Ergebnisses vor Zinsen und Steuern (Ebit-Marge) wird Drägerwerk optimistischer. Sie soll nun bei acht bis elf Prozent liegen, nachdem das Unternehmen vorher fünf bis acht Prozent erwartet hatte. Die Aktie legt auf der Handelsplattform Tradegate zu.

Bundeskartellamt nimmt auch Apple unter die Lupe

Das Bundeskartellamt nutzt seine neuen Möglichkeiten zum Vorgehen gegen große Digital-Plattformen nun auch für Ermittlungen gegen Apple . “Wir werden jetzt prüfen, ob Apple rund um das iPhone mit dem proprietären Betriebssystem iOS ein digitales Ökosystem über mehrere Märkte errichtet hat”, kündigte Kartellamts-Präsident Andreas Mundt an. Auf der Grundlage des im Januar reformierten Gesetzes gegen Wettbewerbsbeschränkungen prüft die Behörde bereits Facebook, Amazon und Google.

Plötzlicher Chefwechsel bei Fluggesellschaft Norwegian

Die Fluggesellschaft Norwegian tauscht nach turbulenten Monaten ihren Chef aus. Vorstandschef Jacob Schram wird durch den bisherigen Finanzchef Geir Karlsen ersetzt. Karlsen sollte seinen neuen Job noch im Laufe des Montags antreten. Ein Grund für den plötzlichen Wechsel wurde zunächst nicht genannt. Nach langem Kampf ums Überleben hatte die Fluggesellschaft zuletzt ihre Neuaufstellung abgeschlossen und auch die monatelange Zeit unter Gläubigerschutz hinter sich gelassen.

Frachttechnologie-Startup Forto ist jetzt ein “Einhorn”

Das Berliner Frachttechnologie-Startup Forto hat bei Investoren frisches Kapital in Höhe von 240 Millionen Dollar eingesammelt. Das fünf Jahre alte Unternehmen wird nun mit 1,2 Milliarden Dollar bewertet. Damit schafft die Firma den Sprung zum “Einhorn”. Ab einer Milliarde Dollar werden Startups im Jargon der Investmentbanker als “Einhörner” bezeichnet.

Novartis mit positiven Studiendaten zu Zolgensma

Novartis hat am Freitagabend positive Studiendaten zum Nutzen der Genersatztherapie Zolgensma beim Einsatz gegen seltenen, erblich bedingten Muskelschwund spinale Muskelatrophie (SMA) publiziert. In der laufenden Phase-3-Studie SPR1NT haben demnach alle mit Zolgensma behandelten Kinder ohne Unterstützung beim Atmen und der Nahrungsaufnahme überlebt. In der STR1VE-EU-Studie hätten zudem 82 Prozent der behandelten Kinder gute Werte in der motorischen Entwicklung gezeigt, die so bei einem normalen Verlauf der SMA-Krankheit nicht beobachtet worden seien. Mit einem Preis von rund zwei Millionen Euro ist Zolgensma das mit Abstand teuerste Medikament der Welt

The sound becomes sharper Fed sees two rate hikes in 2023

Status: 16.06.2021 8:59 p.m.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged. However, the loose monetary policy will not go on forever. The stock markets are falling, and the euro is also falling. Despite the waning corona pandemic and rising inflation rates, the US Federal Reserve continues to keep its key interest rate in a range between 0.00 and 0.25 percent. The monthly bond purchases of $ 120 billion are also expected to continue for the time being. At least until progress is made towards achieving the bank’s goals. In particular, this means “considerable progress in terms of price stability and employment”. This was stated by the monetary authorities after their two-day routine interest rate meeting in Washington. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed is still a long way from achieving its goal: “But we are making good progress.” The bank continues to blame temporary factors for the recently stronger rise in inflation data. At the same time, she expects inflation to rise to 3.4 percent this year and drop to 2.2 percent in 2022. There is also increased economic activity and employment. Powell said the discussion about scaling back the extremely loose monetary policy had begun. The point is when it will reduce its regular bond purchases. However, Powell was not specific. Basically, the Fed chief said that if you will, you have talked about wanting to talk about the subject. With such cautious wording Powell should try to avoid panic-like reactions in the financial markets.

Two rate hikes envisaged in 2023

For the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, however, the monetary authorities signaled that there could be two interest rate hikes of half a percentage point each in 2023. So far, the Fed’s interest rate projection provided for an unchanged monetary policy with a key interest rate close to zero. After all, seven monetary authorities are now even of the opinion that a tightening could come next year. Not only has the interest rate forecast been raised, expectations for economic growth and inflation are also higher in some cases. For this year, the Fed is expecting macroeconomic growth of 7.0 percent instead of the 6.5 percent previously expected.

Share prices are falling

Wall Street reacts with price losses, all leading stock indices give way in an initial reaction. The leading index Dow Jones lost around one percent, the other indices are slightly below. Prices are also falling on the bond market, with the yield on ten-year US government bonds increasing to 1.56 percent. The euro is losing significantly against the dollar and is currently trading at 1.2026 dollars, around one cent less than in today’s trading

Tchibo increases prices Drinking coffee is getting more expensive

Status: 14.06.2021 10:42 a.m.

The rising prices for green coffee are now also being felt by consumers: for the first time in four years, market leader Tchibo is asking more for its filter coffee. Other dealers could follow suit. In the past weeks and months, some foods have become more expensive, especially vegetables and fruits. Now German consumers also have to dig deeper into their pockets for their favorite drink. From this week onwards, coffee will be more expensive. Tchibo is increasing prices by between 50 and 100 cents per pound – depending on the variety and country of origin. The 500 gram “Feine Milde” pack will cost 5.69 euros in future – instead of the previous 4.99 euros.

A poor harvest is threatened in Brazil

Tchibo justifies the first price increase since 2017 with the rise in green coffee prices. The poor harvest forecast of the world’s largest coffee producer, Brazil, has recently pushed up purchase prices. Tchibo’s move should have a signal effect for the entire industry. Because the market leader usually gives the direction. The group can set the prices in its branches itself. Other roasters and dealers could follow Tchibo’s example.

05/28/2021

Discounters are still waiting

According to Armin Valet from the Hamburg consumer center, the supermarkets will soon follow suit. The consumer advocate predicts that coffee capsules are also likely to become more expensive soon. So far, the discounters Aldi and Lidl have been keeping a low profile. You have not yet commented on price changes. Aldi Süd and Aldi Nord have their own coffee roasters and can determine the prices of their own brands themselves.

Tchibo competitors are likely to follow suit soon

The big coffee roasters are still waiting. Melitta and Dallmayr do not want to comment on possible price adjustments. A spokeswoman for Dallmayr only confirms that the company has been massively affected by the very significant current cost increase. The Jacobs Douwe Egberts Group has announced that it has increased its factory prices due to increased purchasing costs. The Dutch group, which is controlled by the Reimann family, owns well-known brands such as Jacobs, Café HAG and Senseo. Its trading partners are, in particular, grocers who set the end consumer prices on their own responsibility.

analysis 06/09/2021

Green coffee has become almost twelve percent more expensive

The so-called ICO price index, which is made up of several types of coffee, rose by 1.4 percent in April, the sixth month in a row. According to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office, the import prices for green coffee in April were almost twelve percent above the level a year ago. The high-quality Arabica variety in particular has risen significantly in price. The prices have now climbed to their highest level in four years. In New York, Arabica coffee cost around 164 cents a pound at the beginning of June.

02.12.2019

Coffee capsule boom

Coffee is the most popular drink among Germans. The per capita consumption is 168 liters. It is true that significantly less coffee was drunk in cafes, bakeries and canteens during the corona pandemic. At home, however, German citizens consumed eleven percent more. The market for coffee capsules in particular has experienced an unexpected boom in recent years. Competition could soon intensify. With its coffee brand Costa, Coca-Cola wants to attack the market leader Nespresso. The Brause group relies on a partnership with Krüger: The German family company produces the aluminum capsules for Coca-Cola. The capsules are compatible with the Nespresso system.

Prices rise by five percent Highest US inflation since 2008

Status: 10.06.2021 5:44 p.m.

In the USA, consumer prices have risen as sharply as they did almost 13 years ago – which is felt above all by car buyers. The European Central Bank also expects higher inflation in the euro countries. Is it just a short-term phenomenon or is inflation now making its big comeback? In the USA there is a growing fear of ever higher prices. Some are already pulling Parallels to the 1970s when President Jimmy Carter failed to get a grip on high inflation and job misery. Although the USA is still a long way from the double-digit inflation rates of that time, the price jumps are getting bigger from month to month. After inflation had risen above four percent in April, it has now climbed to 5.0 percent in May. That is the highest rate since August 2008. Experts had only expected an increase in the cost of living of 4.7 percent. “The dreaded five has become a reality,” said market observer Thomas Altmann from investment management company QC Partners.

Federal Reserve under pressure

The strong growth impressively proves that the price surge in April was not a slip-up, said LBBW analyst Dirk Chlench. “The US Federal Reserve is coming under increasing pressure to reconsider its view that the recent price hikes are only of a temporary nature.” As in April, the prices for used cars turned out to be the biggest inflation driver. They rose again strongly – and, according to the US Department of Labor, accounted for around a third of the monthly price increase.

Core inflation at its highest level since 1992

Particularly alarming is core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food. It climbed 3.8 percent in May. The last time there was such a sharp increase was in 1992. In April, the core inflation rate was 3.0 percent. The end of the corona lockdowns and the trillion dollar cash injections by the US government have been driving inflation in the US for months. Prominent economists like Larry Summers, Olivier Blanchard and Mohamed El-Erian warn against underestimating the danger. According to Blanchard, the high government spending under US President Joe Biden could overheat the economy.

Just a passing trend?

Most economists are still looking at the trend with serenity, however. In their opinion, the development is mainly based on temporary factors. The US service sector is back in normal mode in many places. Prices for air travel and hotel accommodation are picking up again and are well above the previous year’s level, says chief economist Thomas Gitzel from VP Bank. “So there are so-called base effects at work once more.” At the same time, the shortage of semiconductors is now at least indirectly affecting consumer prices. If there are no new cars due to a lack of semiconductors, customers switched to used cars. These would have become significantly more expensive. Gitzel predicts that the price level will slowly drop from a high level in the summer months. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) claims that inflation will only pick up temporarily. Because compared to the previous year, the economic downturn in the Corona year 2020 resulted in high rates of price increase. That is why the central bank has not yet seen itself under pressure.

Little movement on Wall Street

Wall Street barely reacted to the renewed surge in inflation. The Dow Jones rose by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 even jumped to a record high. The US dollar gained against the euro. So investors do not anticipate a tightening of monetary policy in the US for the time being. In the eurozone, too, the money locks are still strongly open. The European Central Bank (ECB) is sticking to its trillion-dollar anti-corona crisis program (PEPP) and plans to expand bond purchases in the next quarter compared to the first three months of the year. In doing so, the central bank wants to avoid tightening the financing conditions for companies, states and private households.

ECB raises inflation forecast

The rising inflation hardly worries the euro watchdogs . The higher euro will dampen inflation, said ECB President Christine Lagarde. Nonetheless, the ECB raised its inflation forecast. According to the central bank, inflation should be 1.9 percent in 2021. In March, the ECB was still assuming an increase of 1.5 percent. For 2022, the monetary authorities expect an annual price increase of 1.5 percent and for the following year unchanged at 1.4 percent. According to the ECB, inflation that is too high can lead to a price spiral. Higher prices mean consumers get less goods for their money. So they demand higher wages in order to be able to maintain their standard of living. In turn, in order to pay the higher wages, companies continue to raise the prices of their products. On the other hand, permanently low prices are seen as a risk for the economy: companies and consumers could then postpone investments – in the hope that it will soon become even cheaper. In the medium term, the ECB is aiming for an annual inflation rate of just under two percent. In Germany, the inflation rate is already above this level. In May the Consumer prices compared to the same month last year by 2.5 percent , the highest value since September 2011.

Despite rising inflation Why the ECB is not raising interest rates

Status: 10.06.2021 8:28 a.m.

Inflation is increasing in many European countries. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank wants to stick to its loose monetary policy. How long can she keep this course? By Klaus-Rainer Jackisch, MR The circular saw is still running. But the little wood that is left is not enough at the front and back. The large warehouse in the North Hessian Baunatal is usually well filled. But wood has been in short supply for weeks. “There has never been anything like it,” says Zimmermann and company owner Peter Hellmuth. The specialist fears further bottlenecks in the summer. Although demand is booming, there could even be short-time working. Because in Corona times there is more handicraft, building and tinkering, but also because the USA and China are buying empty the world market, there is currently too little wood . In April prices were almost 30 percent higher than in the same month last year, and the trend is still increasing, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Also at other raw materials are skyrocketing : Iron, steel and aluminum scrap rose by more than 60 percent, pig iron costs almost a quarter more, and the prices of electronic circuits rose by around 14 percent.

Above all, energy is more expensive

But energy prices climbed the hardest. Imported electricity, which is becoming more and more important because the amount of energy generated from sun, wind and water fluctuates sharply, even rose by 200 percent. People also had to dig deeper into their wallets for electronics and food. Inflation is back. It is coming with great strides. It is currently 2.5 percent in Germany . For the autumn, the Bundesbank and many economists expect inflation rates in this country of over four percent. Such values ​​have not existed for almost three decades. The last time the prices climbed above the four percent mark in 1993. At that time, inflation was 4.5 percent, according to statisticians. The price surge is particularly noticeable in Germany: the return of VAT to the old values ​​and the massive CO2 pricing since the beginning of the year are making themselves felt. The upturn in the economy does the rest: Through successes in vaccinations and easing, the demand for goods and services of all kinds is increasing, while at the same time supply is scarce – all of this is causing prices to go up.

Hardly any compensation through higher wages

Also in Europe: There the inflation rate rose to 2.0 percent in May. In addition to Germany, people in Austria (3.0 percent), Estonia (3.1 percent) and Luxembourg (4.0 percent) in particular have to pay more. All of that hurts, because because of Corona there are rather poor results in the wage rounds and therefore hardly any compensation. This makes price increases even more noticeable. But none of this makes much impression on the European Central Bank (ECB). It is expected that the company’s own forecasts, which will be updated this week, are well above the old estimates. It is also becoming apparent that inflation will by no means abate in the second half of the year as originally expected, but rather, on the contrary, reach new highs. But the monetary authorities in Frankfurt’s Eurotower see no reason to act. For weeks now, the members of the ECB’s Executive Board have repeatedly emphasized that the economy is recovering well, but currently still needs the support of an ultra-loose monetary policy. A repayment of the controversial bond purchases or even a turnaround in interest rates is not even hinted at.

Worried look at the financial markets

Instead, the ECB continues to pump billions from its Corona aid program PEPP into the markets at great speed – currently it is around 80 billion euros per month. This is intended to offer sufficient capital on favorable terms and to keep interest rates low. “The ECB has committed itself to ensuring favorable financing conditions during this phase,” said ECB President Christine Lagarde in Paris last week. This promise will also be kept. In fact, the ECB is not that unhappy about the price surge. The self-imposed inflation target of almost two percent has not been achieved for about ten years because one crisis chases the next. If this is different this year, it could be sold as a great success in your own monetary policy – even if the pendulum swings beyond your own target. In addition, one looks at the financial markets with concern: there share prices, also and precisely because of the ultra-loose monetary policy, have reached a level that has long been decoupled from the real economy in many areas. The central bankers fear that a change in monetary policy could lead to violent reactions and shake the fragile house of cards.

Debt rose sharply

And then there are also the debts: In southern Europe in particular, they have risen again to astronomical heights due to the collapse of tourism in the wake of the coronavirus crisis: Greece, for example, currently has a gross domestic product debt of around 205 percent. This is the highest level in the euro zone and more than during the Greek crisis. Italy, too, is groaning under excessive debts and ailing banks. An increase in the interest rate would not be right. Italy’s central bank chief Ignazio Visco is therefore particularly busy when it comes to sticking to the current monetary policy: “Large and sustained increases in interest rates are not justified by the current economic outlook and will be countered,” he said at the annual meeting of the Banca d´Italia in Rome. In fact, a new debt crisis in the euro zone, triggered by rising interest rates, would be the last thing the monetary union could use now. The central bank governors from Germany and the Netherlands, for example, cannot do much against all of these arguments. They have been calling for an exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy for a long time, but they are in the minority.

Criticism of the policy of the US Federal Reserve

So there are many reasons why the majority of monetary watchdogs prefer to keep their feet still and save themselves over the summer. A change in monetary policy at the council meeting this week is not expected, not even with a hint that it might be imminent. Only the pace of bond purchases could perhaps be slowed down a bit. But that too is unsafe. How long the ECB can continue on its course, however, also depends on the world around it. In the USA, for example, where the inflation rate is now 4.5 percent and the economy because of the two trillion corona aid program of the Biden government is slowly starting to overheat , criticism of the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy is growing louder. Economists such as the former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard or the leading economic advisor of Allianz, Mohamed Aly El-Erian, fear that the corona crisis could have changed the structure of the economy. It is therefore not at all clear that inflation will recede again quickly. If the central banks act too late and then abruptly, this could lead to upheavals in the financial markets and a recession. The next few months are therefore likely to be uncomfortable for the European monetary authorities. And also for the people in the euro zone. Because one thing is clear: it will be even more expensive.

Rising producer prices “Hidden inflation” as a warning sign

As of: 06/09/2021 1:32 p.m.

In China, producer prices have risen faster than they have been in 13 years. In Germany, too, inflationary pressure from producers is growing. When will consumers feel this? From Angela Göpfert, tagesschau.de In China, producer prices rose by 9.0 percent in May, the strongest they have been since 2008. Anyone who thinks what is happening in China does not affect the German consumer is wrong. As far away as China may feel for some German consumers: The fresh data from China are fueling the inflation debate in this country, as they reveal a problem that Germany and the euro zone are also facing.

“Hidden inflation” also in Germany

In April, producer prices in the Federal Republic of Germany soared by 5.2 percent compared to the same month last year. That was the highest increase since August 2011, when prices rose sharply after the financial and economic crisis. The producer prices are considered to be an important leading indicator for the development of consumer prices. They usually only meet with far less media interest, which is why they are sometimes referred to as “hidden inflation”.

Energy prices as a driver of inflation

So the crucial question is: Will producer price inflation also reach consumers? So far, not much of that has been felt. In April consumer prices in Germany climbed by 2.0 percent compared to the same month last year. Around half of this increase was due to the rise in energy prices. A look at the recent past of the German economy also shows that consumer prices have mostly only increased significantly at a much slower pace when producer prices have risen similarly. The producer price inflation was therefore only to a small extent reflected in rising consumer prices.

Consumers have saved a lot of money

But this time everything could be different. The reason is a special effect of the corona pandemic, which has never come to fruition in this pronounced form: the deferred demand. “The corona pandemic inhibited private demand for months and led to a kind of compulsory saving. The savings surplus now amounts to over 150 billion euros and is likely to rise to around 200 billion euros by the end of 2021,” said LBBW economist Jens-Oliver Niklasch across from tagesschau.de . This corresponds to a potential increase in consumer demand of up to 17 percent compared to the pre-Corona year 2019.

Companies can pass on more costs

“If we open everything now, then this strong additional demand will meet an offer that has become more expensive in terms of costs. The probability is correspondingly high that the companies will be able to pass on a larger part of the costs,” says Niklasch. Michael Holstein, chief economist at DZ Bank, is convinced that “the manufacturing companies will certainly try to pass on part of their cost increase to their customers.”

Savers are actually expropriated

Against this background, LBBW economist Niklasch initially expects inflation rates to continue to rise over the remainder of the year. In the second half of the year, the VAT effect should come into its own: “Then we will probably reach inflation figures of over three percent.” This has very real consequences for consumers and savers in Germany: With interest rates of zero percent and an inflation rate of over two or even three percent, the real interest rates, i.e. the nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate, are negative. Savers who invest their money in overnight money accounts or savings books are actually expropriated. This is fueling the flight into stocks and real estate, which in turn continues to inflate the price bubbles in these markets.

Wage-price spiral not yet in sight

After all: LBBW expert Niklasch sees the rising inflation rates as a temporary phenomenon, the ingredients for a permanent increase are not there. “For inflation rates to rise over the long term, wages would have to go along with them; a wage-price spiral like the one in the 1970s would be needed. But we are not seeing that in Germany at the moment.” From January 2022, the inflation rate should quickly drop below the two percent mark.

Stress on industry harms the economy

But even if the rising producer prices were not or only slightly reflected in rising consumer prices, that would not bode well. If producers cannot pass the rising prices on to consumers, that would indicate weak consumption dynamics. That seems to be the case in China at the moment, as Commerzbank foreign exchange expert Hao Zhou points out. “As a result, there is a risk that industrial profits will shrink rapidly, which will weigh on the general economic outlook.” So regardless of whether the producers pass the rising producer prices on to the consumers or not: they are always a warning signal.

Poland’s high inflation With price jumps from the pandemic

Status: 08.06.2021 8:12 a.m.

The Polish inflation rate is well above the German rate – now more than five percent. In many ways, this is a consequence of the pandemic, experts say. But when will the central bank react? From Martin Adam, ARD studio Warsaw The pandemic is not over yet when another topic is pushing the front pages of Polish newspapers. “Why so expensive?” Asks the “Gazeta Wyborcza”. The “Rzeczpospolita” replies: “We pay for growth with inflation.” In fact, what is happening in Poland is what financial experts in Germany are warning of: the inflation rate is rising – currently to a ten-year high of well over five percent, according to the standardized European calculation. That is one of the highest values ​​in the European Union. For comparison: In Germany, the inflation rate was 2.5 percent in May .

Devaluation clearly noticeable

The devaluation of the Polish zloty is clearly noticeable, explains financial market expert Pawel Majtkowski. “Compared to last year, wages have risen by ten percent, but the prices of fruit and vegetables by 20 percent. So we are already feeling the price increases,” he says. “In addition, there are higher production costs, transport costs and the costs of higher wages.” All of this is reflected in prices. Inflation is most evident in the case of fuels. According to the national statistics office, gasoline and diesel for private cars have become more than 30 percent more expensive within a month.

“Polish economy is doing well”

But don’t panic, it’s all normal and a consequence of the corona pandemic, explains economic advisor Lidia Adamska. “Inflation in Poland reflects processes that we see in the post-Covid landscape around the world. But the Polish economy is doing well,” she says. “The gross domestic product is growing, the employment and unemployment figures are also optimistic.” There are various factors that are currently weighing on the Polish currency, only some actually have to do with the corona pandemic: The low interest rates, which are supposed to stabilize the economy, make money cheap. It is available in large quantities, which always carries the risk of being devalued. After the rapid slump last year, crude oil prices are also picking up again, making gasoline and diesel more expensive. In addition, there are higher food prices because Polish agriculture has not recovered from the past two years of drought. A bad harvest means high prices. With restaurants and hotels that are slowly reopening in Poland, demand is also increasing.

Raising the minimum wage is having an effect

The political decision at the beginning of the year to increase the gross minimum wage to 18.30 zloty per hour, the equivalent of around 4.10 euros, also has an impact. This is supposed to distribute the Polish economic boom more fairly. However, the service industry in particular, which has been shaken by the corona lockdown, is passing the higher wage costs through to customers. The bottom line is that everything will be expensive. But it will certainly be countered soon, suspects the economics expert Ignacy Morawski. “In a sense, inflation is the price of low unemployment,” he says. “I suspect the central bank will soon raise interest rates to control inflation.” When exactly this will happen and how far inflation will rise, hardly anyone in Poland has yet wanted to make a forecast.

Last trading day Thursday (May 13): International gold London Gold further set a weekly low and then rebounded to close.

On the trend, the price of gold since the Asian market in early trading Opened at 1815.85 The US dollar per ounce fluctuated around 1818 US dollars as a whole. During the European session, the market broke the turbulence range and touched below the given short order target of 1809 US dollars, which means it was recorded. Intraday low 1808.56 U.S. dollar

After that, the price of gold hit the bottom and rebounded continuously and continued to the U.S. market. Although the initial data was negative for gold prices, after a brief decline, the trend rose again. The producer price index (PPI) in April was stronger than expected, which further proves Inflation in the United States is heating up to support gold prices.In addition, the U.S. dollar out of turbulence and U.S. Treasury yields closed down, which provided impetus to gold prices and recorded Intraday high 1828.38 The U.S. dollar has met resistance, and eventually Closed at 1826.28 Dollars, The daily amplitude was US$19.82 and closed up US$10.43, an increase of 0.57%.

Looking forward to today’s Friday (May 14): International gold was under pressure at the opening, and the 5-day moving average created selling pressure on it. The lower U.S. index and U.S. bonds did not significantly support gold prices.

The market is still waiting for the evening’s horrible data. US retail sales data. If the data is strong, gold may be under pressure. However, according to the expected value, it is expected to have greater support for the gold price. In addition, the recent strong performance of the data is a cause The price of gold falls first and then rises. Therefore, regardless of the results of the data, the price of gold has room to rise. Therefore, pay attention to the first direction after the data is released, and the specific operations and ideas are subject to the actual warehouse information.

Recently, after the gold price recovered from resistance near the 200-day moving average, it fell below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March decline, which is about $1818. Although it is still running at the top of the market, the market’s expectation of a fall is still there. We do not rule out the risk of falling below again. According to its movement, the price of gold will basically rebound and break beyond the upper track, and test the fall on the 10th and The mid-rail support has now returned to the 10-day line, but the upward pressure is still expected, and the 5-day line is also under pressure in the day. Therefore, there is a high probability that the market will go further down to test the mid-rail support position. That is the $1798 mentioned in the title yesterday. However, the lows at the end of April and the beginning of May provided direct support for the price of gold near $1,800. Therefore, while hitting the expected low support, it is also an opportunity to seize the rebound first.

Prior to this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday last month set the largest increase in nearly 12 years, intensifying people’s concerns about rising inflation and possible interest rate hikes. At the same time, the higher-than-expected PPI increase in April yesterday also intensified inflation. All inflation data had a positive impact on the price of gold. However, relative to the period of high inflation, gold performed poorly.

In addition, although Fed officials have stated that they will continue to maintain easing policies and U.S. bond yields have declined, the recent escalating conflict between Palestine and Israel is also expected to provide some momentum for safe-haven gold.

However, the strength of the stock market and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims have restricted the rise of gold prices. SPDR gold holdings have decreased for the first time after three consecutive days of no change, indicating that the market still has doubts about the strength of gold. In general, the Fed and Biden’s easing policies continue to boost gold prices, while market concerns about excessive inflation and the panic of monetary policy tightening will drag down gold prices. After entering the second half of the year, with the continuous increase in debt reduction and interest rate hike expectations, the trend of gold may become more and more difficult. The short-term direction is more difficult to judge.

Technically:

Daily level: The price of gold stopped falling and rebounded on Thursday supported by the 10-day moving average. Today Friday, it was under pressure under the pressure of the 5-day moving average. However, the 10-day moving average will continue to produce buying support in the day’s white trading and come out of the rebound. However, in terms of the indicators in the attached drawings and the pressure of the main chart, the personal bias once again fell below the 10-day moving average position. According to the previous blockade of the 100-day moving average, the market rebounded again after the retracement hits the middle track. Looking at the current strength, the market has suffered. The pressure on the 200-day moving average will also fall and touch the support of the middle rail. Therefore, while optimistic about the position of the 10-day moving average support, we should also pay attention to the support near the middle rail;

International Gold: Follow above 1828 Resistance near the dollar, and 1835 Near the US dollar; follow below 1815 Near the dollar, and 1809 Support near the dollar, pay more attention 1798 Support near the dollar;

Silver TD: Follow above 5600 Yuan/gram resistance, and 5650 Yuan; follow below 5500 Yuan/kg, and 5455 Yuan/kg;, further attention 5390 yuan.

Shanghai Bank 2106: Follow above 5630 /Kg resistance, and 5675 Yuan/kg resistance.Follow below 5490 Yuan/kg support, and 5430 Meta support

Note:

Gold TD = (International Gold Price x Exchange Rate)/31.1035

International gold fluctuates by 1 US dollar, and gold TD fluctuates by about 0.22 yuan (in theory).

US gold futures price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap interest rate × futures maturity days / 365)

Make bold predictions and trade with caution. The above opinions and analysis only represent the author’s personal thoughts, and are for reference only and not as a basis for trading. According to this operation, you will be at your own risk.

Essential Books for Fundamentals of Gold Investment: “Play and Earn Gold Investment Transactions”

From Angela Göpfert, tagesschau.de The next lira crisis is here. On Thursday, the Turkish currency fell to $ 0.1204 – a drop of 1.4 percent. The day before, the lira had lost 1.0 percent against the dollar. The losses against the euro are similarly high. These are truly extreme movements for the foreign exchange market, where fluctuations usually take place in the per mille range. The sharp fall in the lira follows an economic policy on the part of the Turkish president that is perceived as extreme on the financial markets. Once again, Recep Tayyip Erdogan unsettled the financial markets with drastic statements: Turkey is in a fight against a “triad of evil” consisting of inflation, interest rates and exchange rates, according to the head of state.

The Turkish lira is clearly on a downward trend against the US dollar.

Not the first Fed chairman to be laid off

It was only in March that Erdogan had the governor of the CBT central bank, Naci Agbal, dismissed by presidential decree after he raised the key rate from 17 to 19 percent. Less than three months earlier, Erdogan had promised to accept the “bitter pill” of high interest rates to curb the rapidly galloping consumer prices. Erdogan seems to have changed his mind. Because Agbal’s successor is Sahap Kavcioglu, a former AKP MP and proponent of low interest rates.

Monetary policy credibility ruined

Due to several changes in personnel at the top of the central bank, the lira had already lost considerable ground in recent months. However, experts doubt that a weakening of the central bank’s credibility is the right answer – and they also choose drastic words. Erdogan is risking “seeing another lira crisis,” warns Tatha Ghose, Commerzbank’s London-based foreign exchange market expert. With his “de facto ban on sustained high interest rates” he ruined the credibility of monetary policy.

Capital controls as a last resort?

Against this background, Turkey does not really have anything to counter the rapidly rising inflation. In March, the Turkish inflation rate was 16.2 percent. Erdogan then announced the goal of an inflation rate in the single-digit percentage range.

Consumer prices are a long way from Erdogan’s target of a single-digit inflation rate. Some experts are now counting on the introduction of capital controls as a last resort to stop the unchecked outflow of capital from Turkey. Comprehensive controls are unlikely to be expected, however, as Turkey is simply too dependent on foreign capital for that. In addition, a ban on the free movement of capital would completely ruin the confidence of the financial markets in Turkey. Support purchases of the lira on the foreign exchange markets are also likely to miss their target in view of Turkey’s extremely thin cushion of foreign exchange reserves.

Experts warn of a downward spiral

The weak Turkish lira poses immense dangers for the Turkish economy: “Devaluations of the lira are always important because the currency-related spill-over effect contributes significantly to the high Turkish inflation,” emphasizes foreign exchange expert Ghose. “Any movement, however inconspicuous, can trigger a new market spiral and complicate the situation.” As early as 2018, Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman warned of a “death spiral” for the Turkish economy. At the time, he also explicitly named domestic events as possible triggers, such as repeated attacks on the independence of the domestic central bank.

Paul Krugman warns of the risks of a decline in the lira. Image: dpa

First the financial markets, then the real economy

The direct consequence would be: The domestic currency rushes into the depths. This increases inflation, as many goods for expensive money have to be imported from abroad, which in turn increases the cost of business and the cost of living for many Turks. The decline in the lira is also making it more difficult to repay debts in foreign currencies. Many Turkish corporate bonds and loans are denominated in foreign currencies such as dollars or euros. There is the next downward step: Turkish companies go bankrupt. Then unemployment rises, domestic consumption falls – the crisis has a full impact on the real economy. The logical consequence: investor confidence continues to decline. This in turn puts the Turkish currency under greater pressure – and the downward spiral begins again.

Lira expiry without end?

Krugman’s warning is as relevant today as it was in 2018: then, as now, it was the “unconventional” monetary policy worldview of the Turkish president that created the expectation among market participants that sustained high interest rates would not be enforceable in Turkey. It is these expectations that weigh heavily on the lira. An end to the lira downward spiral – apart from short-term recovery phases – does not seem in sight for the time being. Experts such as foreign exchange market analyst Ghose expect the Turkish currency to decline further. According to his forecast, investors will have to spend ten lira for one US dollar in December 2021. However, this is more of a “symbolic” forecast as Turkey is currently venturing into uncharted monetary policy territory. This makes a rational exchange rate forecast virtually impossible.

IMF regime as a way out?

The fact is: the lira is currently trading at $ 8.26. The further “symbolic” downside potential for the lira by the end of the year is therefore a proud 20 percent. According to experts, the only possible way out to prevent such a scenario would be a rescue package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This could help restore the credibility of important institutions such as the Turkish central bank in the market. Erdogan has so far rejected such an IMF program because it would undermine his personal power.

Inflation in Germany is picking up speed. In March consumer prices rose by 1.7 percent compared to the same month last year, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office. This means that the rate of inflation was positive for the third month in a row after the VAT cut expired at the end of 2020. Compared to the previous month, inflation rose by 0.5 percent. In February the inflation rate was 1.3 percent.

Refueling will be expensive

In particular, the rising prices for energy have an impact on consumer prices. According to the statistics office, energy prices rose by an above-average 4.8 percent within the year. In detail, the data are even more informative: If you compare the inflation rates with the previous month of February, the plus becomes even clearer. Above all, I increased the price of heating oil by 19.4 percent compared to March. In the case of gasoline, the increase is 12.7 percent. In addition to the CO2 levy introduced at the beginning of the year, the price decline a year ago is also having an effect, as the experts note. The comparative value in the previous year was therefore low. Electricity prices, on the other hand, remained relatively constant.

Vegetables have become cheaper

Groceries have also become more expensive overall. Here the plus compared to March of the previous year is 1.6 percent. Consumers had to pay more for fruit and dairy products in particular: the prices rose by 2.5 percent each. However, compared to February, food prices remained unchanged. However, among other things, edible fats and oils have become more expensive, while vegetables have become cheaper. The European Central Bank (ECB) is keeping a close eye on inflation developments in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. It is aiming for inflation of just under two percent for the monetary union in the medium term. The German inflation rate calculated according to European standards was 2.0 percent in March.

Special factors drive inflation

Ann-Katrin Petersen, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, emphasizes, however, that currently there are mainly temporary special factors, which pointed to a noticeable increase in inflation rates in the coming months. The expert points to the economic slump of the previous year – and the now rising raw material prices, the noticeable catch-up effects in private consumption and possible bottlenecks in the service sector following a relaxation of the distance rules and contact restrictions. It is uncertain whether the current trend will manifest itself in the long term.