Rising producer prices “Hidden inflation” as a warning sign

As of: 06/09/2021 1:32 p.m.

In China, producer prices have risen faster than they have been in 13 years. In Germany, too, inflationary pressure from producers is growing. When will consumers feel this? From Angela Göpfert, tagesschau.de In China, producer prices rose by 9.0 percent in May, the strongest they have been since 2008. Anyone who thinks what is happening in China does not affect the German consumer is wrong. As far away as China may feel for some German consumers: The fresh data from China are fueling the inflation debate in this country, as they reveal a problem that Germany and the euro zone are also facing.

“Hidden inflation” also in Germany

In April, producer prices in the Federal Republic of Germany soared by 5.2 percent compared to the same month last year. That was the highest increase since August 2011, when prices rose sharply after the financial and economic crisis. The producer prices are considered to be an important leading indicator for the development of consumer prices. They usually only meet with far less media interest, which is why they are sometimes referred to as “hidden inflation”.

Energy prices as a driver of inflation

So the crucial question is: Will producer price inflation also reach consumers? So far, not much of that has been felt. In April consumer prices in Germany climbed by 2.0 percent compared to the same month last year. Around half of this increase was due to the rise in energy prices. A look at the recent past of the German economy also shows that consumer prices have mostly only increased significantly at a much slower pace when producer prices have risen similarly. The producer price inflation was therefore only to a small extent reflected in rising consumer prices.

Consumers have saved a lot of money

But this time everything could be different. The reason is a special effect of the corona pandemic, which has never come to fruition in this pronounced form: the deferred demand. “The corona pandemic inhibited private demand for months and led to a kind of compulsory saving. The savings surplus now amounts to over 150 billion euros and is likely to rise to around 200 billion euros by the end of 2021,” said LBBW economist Jens-Oliver Niklasch across from tagesschau.de . This corresponds to a potential increase in consumer demand of up to 17 percent compared to the pre-Corona year 2019.

Companies can pass on more costs

“If we open everything now, then this strong additional demand will meet an offer that has become more expensive in terms of costs. The probability is correspondingly high that the companies will be able to pass on a larger part of the costs,” says Niklasch. Michael Holstein, chief economist at DZ Bank, is convinced that “the manufacturing companies will certainly try to pass on part of their cost increase to their customers.”

Savers are actually expropriated

Against this background, LBBW economist Niklasch initially expects inflation rates to continue to rise over the remainder of the year. In the second half of the year, the VAT effect should come into its own: “Then we will probably reach inflation figures of over three percent.” This has very real consequences for consumers and savers in Germany: With interest rates of zero percent and an inflation rate of over two or even three percent, the real interest rates, i.e. the nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate, are negative. Savers who invest their money in overnight money accounts or savings books are actually expropriated. This is fueling the flight into stocks and real estate, which in turn continues to inflate the price bubbles in these markets.

Wage-price spiral not yet in sight

After all: LBBW expert Niklasch sees the rising inflation rates as a temporary phenomenon, the ingredients for a permanent increase are not there. “For inflation rates to rise over the long term, wages would have to go along with them; a wage-price spiral like the one in the 1970s would be needed. But we are not seeing that in Germany at the moment.” From January 2022, the inflation rate should quickly drop below the two percent mark.

Stress on industry harms the economy

But even if the rising producer prices were not or only slightly reflected in rising consumer prices, that would not bode well. If producers cannot pass the rising prices on to consumers, that would indicate weak consumption dynamics. That seems to be the case in China at the moment, as Commerzbank foreign exchange expert Hao Zhou points out. “As a result, there is a risk that industrial profits will shrink rapidly, which will weigh on the general economic outlook.” So regardless of whether the producers pass the rising producer prices on to the consumers or not: they are always a warning signal.

Zoom application icon. (Photo: AFP / VNA) The wave of selling technology shares continues to hit companies with cloud services most, as investors withdraw their capital from these companies. share the strongest increase in the last year. While index Dow Jones is close to record levels, the index of companies providing cloud services is at its lowest level in six months. Stock price of WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund, a fund that tracks the index of cloud services companies, includes 56 shares, down 2.4%, the seventh day of decrease in the past eight days (as of 10 / 5). Technology stocks began to sell out in February and sold out faster in the past few weeks. The main cause of the market’s diversion is concern about the possibility of an interest rate rise as this will normally negatively impact high-growth firms, combined with the attractiveness of stocks that are often beneficial. so when inflation is as high as finance, goods and industry. Compared to a year ago, the index of cloud services companies fell 15%, while the Dow Jones Index rose 14% and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4%. In the last year, a sharp increase in the cloud service provider’s index thanks to an unexpectedly fast transition to remote work, forcing businesses to use products that enable employees to coordinate. remote and access to data stored in data centers. From Zoom for video chat and Twilio to text exchanges to CrowdStrike and Zscaler’s security tools, large businesses have had to buy new technologies for widespread use. Global X analyst Pedro Palandrani, who manages venture funds, says 2020 is a phenomenal year for companies providing cloud services by working remotely. He said it would be a mistake to reopen the economy to stop everyone from using computing solutions. cloud Twilio said last week that the first quarter of 2021 revenue increased 62%, exceeding the forecast of analysts. ServiceNow also outperformed the forecast with a 30% increase in revenue. Zoom had three consecutive quarters of growth of over 300% and an estimated increase of over 175% in the first quarter.

Faruk Fatih Ozer, founder of cryptocurrency exchange Thodex. One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in Turkey declared that they no longer had enough financial capacity to continue operating, causing hundreds of thousands of investors to fear that they would have lost all their money poured into this exchange. Meanwhile, Turkish authorities are trying to locate the 27-year-old founder of the cryptocurrency exchange, who has fled overseas, Bloomberg reported. It is not clear how many customers of the cryptocurrency exchange called Thodex lost money in this case, and how much the total damage. In a statement sent from a secret location, Thodex founder and CEO, Faruk Fatih Ozer, promised to return the money to the investor and return to Turkey to face the public. refund after refund. However, the Turkish government has launched a blockade on Thodex’s accounts, and its headquarters in Istabul has been ransacked by police. According to Turkish media, the damage in this virtual currency exchange crash could reach $ 2 billion. A lawyer representing the victims said that the investment capital of about 390,000 investors had fallen into a “irreversible” state. However, through a statement posted on the company’s website, Ozer denied both numbers, saying that only about 30,000 investors were affected. Some Turkish officials see the incident as another reason to increase control of the cryptocurrency market. Over the past years, the rapid rise of virtual currency prices globally has been paralleled with many frauds and frauds related to exchanges. Mr. Cemil Ertem, a senior economic adviser to President Tayyip Erdogan, said that the Turkish government needs to act as soon as possible. “Patterns of pyramid fraud are emerging. Turkey needs to implement surveillance regulations that are both suitable to the domestic economic situation and in accordance with global developments”. Thodex is part of the virtual currency fever that attracts a large number of Turkish investors who want to find a “shelter” for their savings in the context of dizzying inflation and a lack of local currency rates. stability. In March, inflation in Turkey was 16.2%, 3 times higher than the 5% inflation target set by the Central Bank of this country. This year, the Lira rate has dropped 10% against the dollar, marking the 9th consecutive year of decline. On Wednesday, Mr. Erdogan revealed that the Turkish government has “burned” $ 165 billion of foreign exchange reserves in the past two years to protect the local currency rate, but has not brought the desired results. Concerns about inflation and exchange rate motivate the Turkish people to look for alternative investment channels, including virtual currency. On Friday last week, the value of virtual currency transactions in Turkey reached more than 1.2 billion USD, up 3 times compared to a week earlier, according to data from coingecko.com. Meanwhile, the average daily trading value of the Turkish stock market is only about $ 3.1 billion.