Iran’s government spokesman, Ali Rabiei, said the country had also produced 108 kilograms of uranium enriched at 20%. In 2020, hawks in Iran’s parliament pushed through a law requiring the government to step up uranium enrichment, in response to former President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA nuclear deal. Iran says it has produced another 6.5 kg of uranium enriched at 60%. Photo: AFP. “Under the law of Congress, the Atomic Energy Agency has to produce 120 kg of 20% enriched uranium per year. But according to the latest report, we have produced 108 kg in the last 5 months alone,” Mr. know. A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in May said that as of May 22, Iran had produced 62.8 kg of uranium enriched to 20% and 2.4 kg of uranium enriched rich at 60%. At the next level, the level of uranium enrichment will be increased from 2-5%, the IAEA report said. At the moment, Iran and the US are participating in discussions in Vienna about the possibility of the two sides returning to comply with the provisions of the JCPOA nuclear agreement. Washington Post On June 13, citing a senior US administration official, the two sides have made great progress on all issues, although it is not certain that the JCPOA will be restored. Meanwhile, the administration of President Joe Biden on June 10 lifted sanctions on three former officials and two Iranian companies operating in the oil industry.

A view of the JCPOA Joint Committee meeting on April 6, in Vienna, Austria. Photo: Reuters

According to JCPOA regulations, Iran’s uranium enrichment level is at 3.67% and must not be stockpiled more than 300kg of raw materials. However, Iran has now enriched uranium by up to 20%, even claiming to be able to enrich as much as 90%. Iran’s enrichment of uranium to the point of making nuclear weapons has left powers like “sitting on a fire pan.”

Talks in Vienna, Austria, began last week in an effort to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the JCPOA. In 2018, the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement. Now, more than two months after taking the leadership of the United States, President Joe Biden is making a “reversal” of his predecessor’s policy to “revive” the JCPOA.

International experts see the fact that the negotiators “revived” the JCPOA is a very positive signal, but in reality, the process is not easy with many obstacles. The negotiations will have a very complex scenario and developments, most evident in the form of negotiations when the U.S. and Iran do not directly have dialogue with each other.

The negotiation is carried out in the form of individual dialogue between the parties and communication through intermediaries. All JCPOA participants agreed to form 2 Working Groups. The first group will look at how the U.S. returns to the JCPOA by lifting sanctions on Iran. The second group will study how Iran will return to JCPOA compliance.

Analysts point out that the process of negotiating the JCPOA “revived” obstacles with 3 main issues. First of all is assurances about Iran’s shrinking of its nuclear program in accordance with the JCPOA, while specifically determining what sanctions the U.S. will lift on Iran. While Iran wants to lift most sanctions in exchange for its compliance with the JCPOA, the U.S. is only considering lifting sanctions related to the Iran nuclear issue.

President Biden’s administration insists the U.S. is willing to rescind sanctions on Iran that are believed to be inconsistent with the JCPOA but also stressed that the U.S. expects compliance with the deal on the part of Iran.

However, the Iranian side is unlikely to reverse its steps until U.S. sanctions are lifted. This is considered the second largest “barrier”. Namely, the order in which the U.S. lifted sanctions on Iran first and then Iran complied with the JCPOA again, or Iran complied with the JCPOA first before the U.S. lifted the sanctions. Although the process of “reviving” the JCPOA has shown very positive signs, the level of tension is still very high when the US and Iran will probably not give in to each other.

The third obstacle that is analyzed by experts is the schedule of negotiations. In June, Iran will enter the election of a new President and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will not be re-elected due to the end of his second consecutive term. Many are concerned that the successor to the President of Iran may not take the JCPOA as seriously as Mr. Hassan Rouhani. So if the process of “reviving” the JCPOA is not achieved in his final days in office, it is very likely that the new administration will not negotiate with the US on the deal.

According to experts, Iran’s confidence in the JCPOA has been “eroded.” It would be unacceptable for the U.S. to cancel the deal and now return without “paying the price” for its actions. Especially with 3 obstacles in the process of “reviving” in which analysts point out, to achieve this goal will surely need to make breakthroughs in the short period between now and before the Iranian elections in June. In a scenario where the JCPOA is indeed “collapsing,” experts believe, the parties will proceed with a new international agreement or treaty to replace the JCPOA.

US President Joe Biden. Photo: AP

CNN said the U.S. fell into confrontation with China and Russia, negotiating a return to the 2015 nuclear deal adding to obstacles when Iran’s nuclear plant came under surprise attack, North Korea returned to test ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, President Biden plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan on September 11 but experts warn the Taliban could have an impact on weakening the government in U.S.-backed Kabul.

Mr. Biden’s handling of these situations will help shape the legacy of his term. The U.S. president has publicly said his goal is to defeat COVID-19, revive the economy, and shape foreign policy around the needs of American workers.

The U.S. Director of National Intelligence’s Office on April 13 released a report that named the four countries as Washington’s main security challenges in the coming years: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

On April 11, Iran declared the Natanz nuclear plant under “terrorist attack” after a power outage at the facility. Israeli media cited an unnamed source as reporting that the country’s Mossad intelligence agency was behind the attack. The New York Times also cited an unnamed source as “having an Israeli role” in the incident. Israel has not responded to the allegation.

The incident occurred at a time when U.S. and Iranian officials had indirect dialogue in Vienna (Austria) to establish a roadmap for “bilateral compliance” for the two sides to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 Group countries (including the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) in 2015. In the event that Tel Aviv is indeed behind the attack, President Biden could face new minor friction with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The attack on the Natanz nuclear plant is believed to have influenced U.S. negotiations back to the 2015 nuclear deal. Photo: AP

As for China, it is stepping up its military activities, in addition to making more impact through the “Belt and Road” initiative. The meeting between senior U.S. and Chinese representatives during a two-day conference in Alaska that closed on March 19 represented a clear message from Washington to Beijing that President Biden is not easily “bullied.” It was the first face-to-face meeting between American and Chinese officials since Mr Biden assumed the presidency. At the event, in front of a slew of world media cameras, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken bluntly said that China’s actions “threaten a rules-based order to maintain global stability.”

In March, U.S. President Biden also said that China has ambitions to “become a world leader, the richest country in the world, and the most powerful country in the world.” “This is not going to happen under my supervision,” the U.S. leader insisted.

Not only China, North Korea is another country in Northeast Asia that makes the U.S. keep an eye on it. At the 8th Workers’ Party of Korea Congress held in January, Pyongyang stressed its commitment to developing “strategic weapons” in preparation for a long-term confrontation with the U.S. South Korea’s intelligence agency said the new missile North Korea tested in March could carry a nuclear warhead.

Pyongyang has rejected a offer of dialogue from U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration and stressed that Washington should first eliminate hostile policy. According to experts, diplomacy and negotiations are the most practical way to solve the problem of the North Korean nuclear program. This does not mean the complete removal of sanctions but can be the application of a sustainable diplomatic process that includes high-level dialogue, step by step.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed legislation facilitating his re-election. This development paves the way for the possibility of Mr. Putin continuing to lead Russia more time and achieve the goal of restoring the position the Kremlin lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Experts say President Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan appears to be a foreign policy influenced by domestic affairs. The U.S. and the Taliban signed the agreement in February 2020. Under the agreement, the U.S. pledged to withdraw all forces from Afghanistan by mid-2021, while the Taliban offered security guarantees and conducted talks with the Kabul authorities.

The U.S. currently has 2,500 troops stationed in Afghanistan. The Taliban will have to abide by certain commitments before the U.S. withdraws. But many experts warn that if the U.S. removes troops from Afghanistan without a peace deal that comes with the Taliban, there is a risk that civil war will occur in the country.