Illustration (Source: Internet). Using protracted rains on the third and seventh days of the month of Ngau turned out to be an accurate forecast for thousands of years. At least me and my old friends believe so. In the old Hanoi, there was only one public high point where children could play. That’s the Long Bien bridge year round, the piles are painted and repaired. On the bridge, you can have a panoramic view of the old town with brown tiles and white walls. On a rainy day, the pink tile roofs look like they’ve been on fire. The turbid river below his feet was flowing. Surrounding the bridge abutments are rotten firewood and the water is as black as horns. Nearly fifty years ago, I often invited my friends to the bridge on rainy days like that. Now, looking back at my friends, the hair is already more than half gray. Oh well, it seems that during my childhood, the streets called me to wake up sweet memories. The city suddenly turned into a miniature in the embrace of the tolerant rain. Hanoi rain in the old quarter is not sad. There’s no reason to be sad. The city bathing after sweltering days seems to be blooming. People’s eyes are happy and less anxious than usual. The streets are empty of shops and restaurants. Vehicles on the road are also less aggressive. The old people were free to invite each other to drink. Just for a cool reason. My friends often find very surprising and reasonable reasons to drink. Sometimes the reason is just “the wind is coming”. The torrential rain throughout the week can be considered a “reason agent”. Find an empty restaurant overlooking the street. Phung Hung Street at the beginning of the even number is such a place. The door of the shop looks straight to the bridge leading the train to the slope of Long Bien bridge. One of the most majestic stone structures left over from the French colonial period. More than a hundred years, the row of soft iron railings riveted with rivets still has no aesthetic competitor in the city. This section of the bridge is associated with memories of me and my friends at the University of Civil Engineering forty years ago. That’s where you hop on and off the train for the first few months of school. The city suddenly had an unexpectedly calm corner. The sound of the rain could be heard clearly on the stone wall hanging with a few green ferns. Sparrows gliding and jumping on the pavement in search of prey. The arches at the foot of the bridge have been sealed with stone since the day that all Hanoians left the mountainous economic zone to live temporarily. A humorously optimistic dreamy journey of Hanoi residents ends in the arches of no passport. Neither is electricity. It’s strange that quite a few children are born to the grinding sound of railway wheels coming out of their heads. Who are they? Now out on the street can not know. Hanoi again received stray children without discrimination. Like rain evenly distributed throughout the streets. Stop the rain. Fragile yellow lily flowers sprinkled on the quiet Cua Dong street. Suddenly autumn…

Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ngo Duc Thanh, Hanoi University of Science and Technology. (Photo: Bich Lien) That is shared by Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh, Hanoi University of Science and Technology – a young scientist who has just received the nomination for the Ta Quang Buu Prize in 2021 announced by the Ministry of Science and Technology. Sincere and full of enthusiasm of the scientist who met us, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Thanh said: Global climate change (CC) is a contemporary challenge that humanity is facing. Many human and computational resources are focused by the world to make future climate change scenarios under different assumptions. In 2012, at an international conference in Vietnam led by Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh co-organized, Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (Southeast Asia) project coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (Southeast Asia) was established with the goal of sharing computational resources, human resources and promoting research for Southeast Asia. As soon as CORDEX-SEA was initiated, Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh and his colleagues have embarked on research on simulating extreme temperature and precipitation factors for Southeast Asia. The study focuses on a number of climatic factors for the entire Southeast Asia region such as the number of heavy rainy days, the number of consecutive rainy or no rainy days, the number of days when the temperature is too hot or too cold … The program helped him to be named in the list of nominees for the Ta Quang Buu Award in 2021 – the project “Evaluation of the ability of the RegCM4 model to simulate the extreme indicators of rain and temperature in the CORDEX-Southeast. ASIAN”. According to Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh, there are currently many models with different parameter configurations that can be used to calculate future climate change for the global as well as for individual regions such as Southeast Asia. However, different models will give different errors in different countries, regions, and times. During more than 4 years of implementation, Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh and international colleagues conducted 18 simulation experiments to find the most suitable and optimal model configuration capable of representing the extreme climatic factors of rain and heat. area. 18 experiments were also ranked, from which the most optimal set of model parameters were selected, serving the long-term climate change projection until the end of the 21st century. After being announced, the work received the attention of the research community inside and outside the area. By providing the most optimal model parameters for long-term simulation experiments in Southeast Asia, the work is extremely important, helping to save significant resources and computation time. planning future climate change for the entire region. Initial research results are positive, but things have not stopped. Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ngo Duc Thanh said that, along with the results obtained, many big questions were re-opened: What is the cause of the difference in rainfall increase and decrease in different regions of the region? How do changes in the rain temperature regime affect extreme phenomena such as floods, droughts, hot weather …? However, the thing that Assoc. Ngo Duc Thanh feels most confident and confident that it is the handshake association of international scientists. Never before has the inter-country cooperation in the field been so extremely challenging as meteorology and climate change have been so closely coordinated. Talking more about the success of the project, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Thanh said: This is not only an honor for each individual scientist but also an opportunity for the field of meteorology / climate to be “quietly” and Picky learners, workers get more attention from society. Concerned about this field has not been concerned by many people, he expressed: There are very few young people interested in studying this field because this is also a challenging issue. “In recent years, each course has only recruited very few students, leading to this industry often scored relatively low, while the industry is in need of people who are good at math, physics and computer science.” In addition, during his work, he witnessed “inflows of people coming and going” in a number of hydro-meteorological research units, partly due to working conditions and inadequate income. living did not attract them. “We need the push to create a team of high-quality meteorologists that can be dedicated and passionate about the industry. That way can meet the needs of the society, solving practical and urgent problems such as forecasting natural disasters or researching climate change ”, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Thanh shared. /. The Ta Quang Buu Award is awarded annually by the Ministry of Science and Technology to honor scientists who have outstanding achievements in basic research in the fields of natural sciences and engineering. In 2021, together with TS. Bui Minh Tuan, Assoc. TS. Ngo Duc Thanh, a famous meteorologist was nominated for the “Main Award” category of this award. The Awards Ceremony is expected to be held on May 18 – Vietnam Science and Technology Day.

The Northeastern provinces today also started to have local heat with the highest temperature of over 35 degrees Celsius. In Hanoi, the highest temperature of the day is up to 33 degrees Celsius, it is cloudy but the air is still hot. , the temperature increases rapidly in about 12-16 hours. The heat wave in the North is likely to last until April 25. Immediately after that, the area received 2 consecutive cold air waves. On April 26-28, the weather in Hanoi and the Northern provinces turned cold with large-scale thunderstorms. Photo: Duy Hieu. Specifically, the meteorological agency said early next week, a wave of cold air appears compressing the low pressure trench will cause showers and thunderstorms on a large scale in the North and North Central provinces. On April 26-28, the weather turned cool, but accompanied by extreme thunderstorms. On April 29-30, another cold air appeared, combined with high wind convergence, continued to cause moderate rain, heavy rain for the two areas above. Experts warn that on small rivers and streams in the northern mountainous region, a flood is likely to occur with flood amplitude up to 1-3 m. Flash floods and landslides are likely to occur in the mountainous provinces of the Northwest and North Vietnam. Thus, on the occasion of the holidays April 30 to May 1, the weather in the North is likely to turn badly. It is cold, some places turn cold, accompanied by thunderstorms. According to the forecast page Accuweather , in Hanoi, the lowest recorded temperature in the coming cold wave is 25 degrees Celsius. It will be chilly, with showers and thunderstorms continuously on April 26-28. After that, the rain fell. In Ho Chi Minh City and the Southern provinces, local thunderstorms still appear, focusing on the afternoon and evening. In the last 10 days of April, the Central Highlands and the South had many days of showers and thunderstorms. People need to be on the lookout for cyclones, lightning, hail and strong winds. Meanwhile, the water level upstream of the Mekong River continues to rise with the tide. The meteorological agency said saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta increased gradually and is likely to reach its highest level in the last days of April. On April 23, many places in the Northwest recorded a popular temperature of 35-38 degrees Celsius. The hot sun extended to most of this area and spread down the central provinces. The highest temperature observed during the day is 40 degrees Celsius in Muong La (Son La).

Butterfly effect is a term used to describe the chaos theory concept of the sensitivity of the system to the original conditions. Originally used as a purely scientific concept, the butterfly effect has been widely mentioned as a metaphor in contemporary culture, especially works dealing with human relations. fruit or time paradox. Photo: Tagetra Many people believe that everything happens for a reason and nothing by chance. That there are trivial little things, or seemingly insignificant sequence of events, that also affect our future, can make great changes in history and create new destiny. Source In 1961, while simulating a weather prediction on a computer, mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz accidentally entered .506 instead of 0.556127 as intended. This results in weather prediction obtained completely different from the original calculation. He was surprised when the computer gave a prediction that was very different from the original data even though the rounding value was negligible. From this mistake, Lorenz insisted on the tight binding of the physical system to the initial conditions in her speech. Mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. (Photo: Denviant) According to him, a butterfly flap can cause a change in the original condition of the physical system, causing dramatic changes in weather, even creating a tornado in a remote location. where the butterfly flaps its wings tens of thousands of kilometers. The butterfly effect was published in 1969 by Edward Norton Lorenz with the famous quote “Just one butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas.” Butterfly effect in reality Several events are considered by many to be examples of the Butterfly Effect. 1. Drivers on the wrong path leading to World War I On June 28, 1914, the Black hand terrorist group’s plan to assassinate the Crown Prince of Austria – Archduke Franz Ferdinand was unsuccessful. A grenade thrown into the Crown Prince’s car during the visit missed, fell and exploded, injuring two of his entourage. The Crown Prince should have gone back to the hotel, but he insisted on visiting the emergency entourage in the hospital. However, his driver, unfamiliar with the route, turned the wrong way and immediately met Gavrilo Princip, one of the people involved in the previous murder, was sitting at the café beside the road. Immediately, Princip pulled out a gun and shot Prince Franz Ferdinand straight. The assassination triggered World War I. Photo: Internet It is said that, in general, the driver was misbehaving the wrong way, leading to the assassination of the Crown Prince of Austria. As a result, the Austro-Hungarian Empire declared war on the Serbian, leading to a declaration of war on Russia by Germany, drawing Belgium, France and Britain to declare war on Germany. 2. The young man was denied the artist’s dream, becoming a military dictator This is probably the most widely known butterfly effect on this list. In 1905, a young man applied to the Academy of Fine Arts in Vienna, unfortunately for him and for us too, he was rejected twice. That ambitious art student was Adolf Hitler. After he was rejected, he was forced to live in the city’s slums and his anti-Semitism began to flourish. He joined the German army instead of fulfilling his dream of being an artist, which has resulted in historical sites as you know it. 3. The kind soldier spared his enemy’s life, leading to World War II On September 28, 1818, during a fighting between British and German forces in the village of Marcoing (France), Private Henry Tandey saw a German soldier fleeing. Henry Tandey was about to aim when he realized the soldier was injured, he lowered his gun and let the soldier escape. Adolf Hitler. (Photo: Internet) This decision caused the world a tragedy that no one could imagine. The man who escaped death was Adolf Hitler. When World War II broke out, this incident became a psychological burden on Private Henry Tandey. When asked about his act of pardoning Hitler, Henry Tandey expressed regret: “ I don’t know what kind of person that soldier would become. As I watched innocent civilians being killed for Hitler’s atrocities, I asked God to forgive me for letting him live. “. From the decision to spare one’s life on the battlefields of World War I, it resulted in 60 million people dying in World War II. 4. A fictional book costs 900 million dollars to the American economy Photo: Internet In 1907, a stockbroker by the name of Thomas Lawson wrote a book called Friday the 13th which used the superstition of the day to cause panic among the stockbrokers on the Street. Wall. The book was so impactful that at the time, the US economy lost about 900 million dollars on this day because instead of going to work, on vacation, to go shopping, people were at home.

Research on rain forecast with a forecast term of 10 – 90 days is a topic that Dr. Bui Minh Tuan (born in 1988) cherished during his master’s years at the University of Natural Sciences. “Rain is an extremely important factor for the development of most countries in the world, including Vietnam. If the rainfall is too heavy, it can lead to flooding, causing serious damage to people and material; But too little rainfall can cause droughts, lack of water for domestic use and destroy crops. Therefore, rain forecasting is always the top concern of meteorologists in the world, ”said Tuan. Although the meteorological industry in recent years has seen a strong development; weather forecasts for 5 days have the same accuracy as the one-day forecast of 30 years ago; … however, according to Mr. Tuan, this does not mean that in the next 30 years, the forecast will be 5 times more accurate than current. “There are big obstacles that the meteorological industry has not been able to overcome. Technically, the computer can help to make forecast bulletins that come monthly or longer, however, the reliability of the forecast report will drop very quickly after 5-7 days ”, said Tuan. . Currently, the theoretical foundations for short-term forecasting (from 1-5 days) have been gradually being finalized. Therefore, the weather forecast for this time period is relatively good. However, atmospheric changes on a longer time scale (from 10 to 90 days) are not fully understood. This is also one of the main reasons why the forecast is not reliable at this time. Those concerns have prompted Mr. Tuan to find laws related to the change of rain from 10 to 90 days, towards expanding the ability to forecast. Continuously from 2013 – 2019, Mr. Tuan went to “decode” the questions: Rain in Vietnam has cyclical fluctuations, especially the 10 – 90 day cycle or not? Are these variations between climatic regions? If rain in Vietnam has a strong fluctuation in a cycle of 10 – 90 days, which large-scale processes lead to the fluctuation of these cycles?, … To answer those questions, Tuan said it took him a year to read and understand the algorithms and build computational programs for large atmospheric data sets over the course of 30 years, in the period since 1980. – 2010. “These are complex algorithms, requiring high programming skills. But due to the lack of support from IT specialists, I encountered many difficulties in handling this problem ”. After the computational results have been obtained, analyzing the physical process based on those results is also a challenge. The reason is that Vietnam’s climate is very complicated, affected by many large circulation systems and has strong differentiation between regions. The characteristics of rain and the mechanism of precipitation in Vietnam still cause a lot of controversy in the meteorological community. Therefore, the selection of important aspects for analysis also requires a lot of time. Mr. Tuan also took another year to analyze all the results. What he collected during this time helped find the oscillation pattern of rain. The physical mechanisms involved in this volatility have also been shown. In particular, he also found a relationship of this oscillation with the occurrence of heavy rains in Vietnam. This brings a lot of value, because heavy rains are considered anomalous and difficult to predict. Tuan’s research is an important theoretical basis to expand the ability to predict rain and heavy rain from 10-25 days. Thanks to these results, by early 2019, his article was published in the Journal of Climate – a climate magazine of the American Meteorological Association. Mr. Tuan is a former student of Physics at the High School of Science and Technology. Because he is always curious about natural phenomena such as storms, tornadoes, thunderstorms, … he decided to enroll in the Department of Meteorology, Hydrology and Oceanography of the University of Natural Sciences, Vietnam National University. Cabinet. “When I entered school, I found Meteorology more interesting than what I thought. The ideal knowledge of mathematics and physics is quite distant, but it is applied very closely to explain natural phenomena. In addition, I also have access to modern technologies or to process data on mainframe systems. I also had the opportunity to do internships at local observatories and to participate in professional forecasting internships at the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting. There, I played the role of forecasters, directly analyzing to create a forecast newsletter. It was a very wonderful experience for me ”. After graduating from university, he continued to study for masters and doctoral degrees at the University of Science. As a scientist trained in the country, Mr. Tuan assessed that in recent years, the meteorological industry in Vietnam has also had a great development. At the working place Tuan has been equipped with a supercomputer system for training and research. The latest achievements in areas such as remote sensing, data assimilation, high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, … have also been applied in weather forecasting. However, Mr. Tuan also frankly acknowledged, the support of information technology experts to maintain and operate this system well is still limited. Current researchers still have to be in charge of this additional area. Another “separate sadness”, according to Tuan, is loneliness in science. “The computer system started to exist, but for improvement, the human factor remains the prerequisite. In Vietnam today, the number of people who choose to follow the research path in this field is very small ”. The meteorology industry still seems to be “out of the general trajectory of development”, when after nearly 10 years, despite some changes, it is still slow and only motivated by a few individual individuals. There are not many people doing research in the same field, so it is very difficult to find an academic exchange. Part of the reason, according to Tuan, is that the support for young researchers is still relatively low compared to the general level of society. This is likely to lead to a crisis of high-quality human resources in the future. Currently, each training course in the Department of Meteorology of the University of Natural Sciences recruits only about 30-40 targets. While majors require people who are good at both Math, Physics or Programming, … these people often choose very few meteorology. “Right from the source of admission, this discipline has encountered difficulties. When we enroll in schools, students still know very little about the industry and only think this industry is mainly metrology, usually for the population of C because it relates to Geography. The main registration is for aspiration 2, aspiration 3, so they don’t really like and want to stick with the industry ”, said Tuan. According to the young doctor, this industry is still not respected because people still think, “rain and wind is the story of heaven”, seemingly very far away. But in fact, it greatly affects life, economy and society such as planning production activities, forecasting diseases and preventing natural disasters. “I hope in the coming time, the society will know about the Hydrometeorology industry, not only through the image of a young man in” Quiet Sa Pa “anymore. This is an interesting discipline and offers many opportunities for young people to be truly passionate about natural sciences ”.

According to the National Meteorological Agency, at present, the trend of temperature is gradually turning to a neutral state. With this development, the hurricane season this year is expected to come more wanted than every year, but need to be careful of strong storms; the rainy season can come early with extreme phenomena; risk occurs drought and local water shortage in Central and Central Highlands.

More information with VietnamPlus Electronic Newspaper reporter on the afternoon of April 15, Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Climate Forecast Department, National Hydrometeorological Forecast Center, said that from now until about May, it is unlikely to export storms and tropical depressions in the South China Sea. However, in the following months, storms and tropical depressions will begin to operate and increase in frequency, lasting until the end of 2021.

Specifically, in the period from June to July, storms and tropical depressions are likely to begin operating in the North East Sea and gradually increase the frequency, likely to affect the Northern region. and North Central region from August to September; affect provinces in Central and South Central from September to the end of this year.

“It is forecasted that this year there will be about 10-13 storms operating in the South China Sea, of which about half will affect the mainland. In which, strong storms will occur from September to October, “Huong said.

Also according to Mr. Huong, normally in the first half of the season (from June to September), tropical low pressure will concentrate in the North and the South China Sea, potentially affecting the North and North Central regions. ; in the second half of the season (from September to November), it will focus on the Middle and South East Sea, affecting the North Central Coast and returning to the South.

With the storm trend mentioned above, localities need to be careful of strong storms with complicated movements and cause strong winds at sea in months. stormy rainy season year 2021.

Regarding the trend of the rainy season, Mr. Huong said that this year’s rainy season is likely to come early in the Central Highlands and the South, from about the second half of April to the first half of May, thunderstorms and whirlwinds may occur. , hail, strong wind. In the last 6 months of 2021, rainfall tends to increase nationwide.

Illustration. (Source: VNA)

During the dry season months, the flow volume on most of the common rivers is approximately 15-40% lower than the average of many years in the same period, some rivers are 50% lower. Risk of drought and local water shortage in Central and Central Highlands.

In the flood season in 2021, the annual flood peak on the main rivers in the North, North Central region and Central Highlands is usually around 1-2 and above fluctuation 2; rivers in Yen Bai and Ninh Binh, from Quang Binh to Binh Thuan fluctuate 2-3, some rivers fluctuate 3.

The annual flood peak in the watershed of the Mekong River on Tien River in Tan Chau and Hau River in Chau Doc fluctuates 1-2, lower than the average flood peak of many years from 0.1-0.3m. In the dry season 2020-2021, salinity intrusion in the Mekong River Delta is at a high level but not as serious as the dry season in 2019-2020. Since May, saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta tends to decrease gradually.

The period of moderate and large floods in the North is likely to concentrate more in the second half of the flood season. On small rivers and streams, in the upstream areas, big floods, flash floods, and landslides are likely to occur; Inundation in cities and urban areas continues to be at risk from local heavy rains in the flood season months.

Before the weather trend mentioned above, the representative of Forecast Center Hydrometeorology The country said that the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment will continue to direct hydro-meteorological forecasting and warning units, continuously monitoring, monitoring and updating daily on the website of the Ministry of Natural Resources. and Environment, General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, soon provide detailed forecast information and warnings to functional agencies, media agencies and the people to prevent and avoid ../.