When most market participants analyzed the Fed’s decision, they generally believed that the U.S. monetary policy was only a signal of a turnaround, but no real change occurred, because the federal benchmark interest rate and QE policy remained unchanged, while the excess reserve interest rate and overnight reversal The 5 basis point increase in the repurchase rate is nothing but a technical adjustment.

“However, judging from the actual effect, this technical adjustment has actually played a role in raising interest rates.” In the “Interpretation of How the Fed’s Interest Rate Meeting Understands the Tightening Signals” in the 172nd issue of the Hong Academy Micro Class on June 19, Song Hongbing said After the Fed raised the “ceiling” and “floor” interest rates, it was tantamount to raising the monetary policy interest rate by 4 basis points. This is a tangible increase in interest rates and simultaneously raised interest rates in all money markets.

The excess reserve interest rate is the ceiling interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase is the floor interest rate. As the core interest rate of monetary policy-the federal benchmark interest rate, it is suspended between the ceiling and the floor. For example, the current benchmark interest rate range is 0-0.25%, and the Fed’s expected target value is 0.1% between the two.

When the floor rate (overnight reverse repo rate) was increased from 0 to 0.05%, the repo market rate was immediately increased to 0.05%. why?

Because all those who have money and want to lend can lend money to the Federal Reserve and get Treasury bonds as collateral. There is no risk at all and a steady profit of 5 basis points. In the repo market, any transaction below 5 basis points cannot be done. This is the role of the overnight reverse repo rate as the “floor” rate. At the same time, the yield of short-term treasury bonds also rose immediately. For example, the yield of 3-month treasury bonds is often as low as 0.01% to 0.025%. After the local board interest rate rises by 5 basis points, the yield of 3-month treasury bonds immediately rises to 0.038%, which is 3 The highest value since the month.

At present, interest rates in several money markets have gone up across the board, and eventually the federal funds rate, the most important monetary policy rate, immediately jumped from 0.06% to 0.1%.

“For this reason, the Fed is currently turning itself into a’super pump’.” Song Hongbing said that while the Fed was forced to “release water,” it was also being forced to “pump water.” This self-contradictory approach will cause a huge financial idling and will greatly push up inflation.

According to current data calculations, the Fed will continue to inject about US$120 billion in liquidity into the financial market every month before reducing debt purchases. In addition, the U.S. Treasury Department has $765 billion in cash in the Fed’s checking account. According to the plan of Secretary of the Treasury Yellen, it should be reduced to the level of 500 billion US dollars by the end of June, which means that another 265 billion US dollars of “flood” will flood the financial markets. Although this plan may be slowed down to the second half of the year to be implemented, but in the next six months, there will be about a trillion dollars of currency floods that need to be discharged.

Considering that part of the funds may flow into the overseas US dollar market and the other part into the real economy, Song Hongbing predicts that there may be a flood of US$500 billion in the currency market before the end of the year. In addition, there are also the funding variables of “Two Housing” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two federal mortgage financing companies with government properties). Therefore, the scale of overnight reverse repurchase may continue to rise, and it may be a high probability event to exceed 1 trillion US dollars in the second half of the year, and it is estimated to be close to 1.3 trillion or even higher by the end of the year.

However, we know that all positive feedback systems are difficult to sustain, because it will require more and more external energy injection, and the scale will become larger and the speed will become more and more fierce. When the outside world cannot meet this energy demand, it will eventually become Self implosion is the end.

When short-term interest rates continue to approach and impact the red line of negative interest rates, the phenomenon that the extremes of things must be reversed will naturally occur. This is the sudden increase in the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase. The time is at the end of March this year. After April, the volume began to rise, and in May it entered a state of soaring. After June, it began to soar.

If QE money printing is to release water, then overnight reverse repurchase is a super pump. While the Fed is working hard to release water, the other side is desperately pumping water. The U.S. dollar flows out of the Fed and stays on the accounts of primary dealers and major banks for a while. The balance sheet has reached its limit, and these currency floods immediately overflowed onto the balance sheet of money market funds. However, due to the asset famine, these currency floods have nowhere to go. In the end, they can only flow back to the Federal Reserve through reverse repurchase overnight. This kind of idling of economically worthless funds has no meaning other than leaving Wall Street empty. . The point is, can this water-pumping currency game last forever? Can this positive feedback system work indefinitely? If it can operate indefinitely, this will be a state where Wall Street’s incomparably wonderful dreams come true. Stocks will always rise, financial assets will appreciate infinitely, and money will be made soft. This hearing violates the law of conservation of energy. The “blind spot” of this game mechanism is inflation. Logically speaking, if “water-pumping” continues to operate, and becomes faster and larger in scale, all money will be made by Wall Street, and the world’s wealth cake will eventually go to Wall Street. Theoretically speaking, it is impossible for currency to seal idling in the financial market. Whether it is stocks or national debt, the person who gets the money will spend it. If there is too much money and things cannot be bought, prices will naturally rise. Severe inflation will force the central bank to raise interest rates, thereby disrupting the operation of the positive feedback system. While being forced to constantly “release water”, while being forced to “pump water” continuously. This self-contradictory approach is brewing a bigger crisis

Up to now, the theory of relativity has become a classic theory. Many people think that Einstein’s brain development has reached the highest level, so he came up with these great theories. The famous theory of relativity The theory of relativity includes general relativity and special relativity. Special relativity has been applied by mankind with the famous formula E=mc2. Meanwhile, general relativity is related to the theory of the curvature of space and time, leading to the idea of ​​a hyperspace, time, connection between locations in the universe, or between two parallel universes – that is the way for people of the future to return to the past that readers are very familiar with in the “magic door” of Doraemon (popular fantasy comic book series). Description of gravitational waves created by a pair of stars (Image: Internet) With the continuous development of science and technology, many of Einstein’s theories have been confirmed. In 2016, scientists found gravitational waves proposed by Einstein. The finding of gravitational waves is believed to be the key to solving a series of questions about how the universe works. Einstein believed that the hyperspace tunnel was a medium based on two space-time. As long as we find the hyperspace tunnel (also known as the “wormhole”), we can complete the time travel shuttle. Traveling from one time and space to another can break the limits of distance and travel to distant planets. Simulation of hyperspace tunnel (Image: Internet) Unfortunately, scientists have yet to find the so-called hyperspace tunnel. We have discovered many habitable planets in the universe, but they are all too far away and the nearest ones are hundreds of light-years away. Time travel – advantages and disadvantages However, some scientists believe that time travel goes against the laws of the universe. Time travel seems to be a very practical tool that can realize human desires. And if we have the technology to travel through time and space, then we can make up for the mistakes we’ve made. But in fact, this advantage can also become a disadvantage, because knowing that the mistakes of the past can be corrected by people in the future, people in the present stage often do not work carefully. , which is harmful to the entire human civilization. (“Grandfather’s paradox” is said to be the theoretical basis for proving that it is impossible to travel to the past. If a person goes back to the past and kills his grandfather, that person will not be born, and there will be nobody back in time to kill the grandfather). Another point to consider is that if a time-traveling space shuttle does indeed exist, it could also be used by other “extraterrestrial life”. By then, if our technology is not as advanced as the other, then human civilization is likely to be destroyed. Simulating a super space tunnel from Earth to another planet (Image: Internet) Moreover, if humans abuse the hyperspace tunnel, it will lead to chaos in time and space. Time and space are like a tunnel, if thousands of people enter the tunnel, some will want to go forward and some will want to go back. Different paths will cause bottlenecks and each outcome will affect future growth. Therefore, it can be said that, whether the space tunnel or Doraemon’s “miracle door” really exists or not, we should still try to cherish the present and live well in the present. Future generations will certainly benefit as well.

According to page 9to5mac, series of photos render The new 16-inch MacBook Pro 2021 brings some of the changes we can expect from Apple’s next laptop. But this change includes the removal of the Touch Bar, an improved keyboard, and narrower bezels. In addition, De Rosa also added new connectivity ports for this year’s 16-inch MacBook Pro generation, including an HDMI port, an SD card reader slot or a MagSafe charging port. In terms of configuration, the chip that powers the new 16-inch MacBook Pro is expected to be called M1X with significantly improved performance compared to M1. Bloomberg recently said that the new MacBook Pro models will have a 10-core Apple silicon chip with 8 high-performance cores and 2 energy-efficient cores. They will come with 16 or 32 core GPU options and support up to 64GB of RAM. Interestingly, a rumor that has appeared recently shows that “Apple defect” may introduce the MacBook Pro 2021 models at the WWDC event taking place on June 7. Therefore, let’s wait and see what surprises “Apples” will bring to iFans! Ceiling paint According to S-forum