Wrong interest calculations BaFin is taking action

Status: 21.06.2021 5:08 p.m.

Premium savings contracts have long promised savers big money. However, in the low interest rate phase, many banks corrected the promised profit commitments downwards. BaFin is now intervening – in the interests of customers.

From Ursula Mayer, Mr

The Federal Financial Supervisory Authority BaFin obliges banks and savings banks to inform holders of premium savings contracts with a variable interest rate about ineffective interest rate adjustment clauses. To this end, the authority has published a general order – which is considered a sharp sword in the financial sector. The financial institutions must also explain to savers whether they have received too little interest as a result of the ineffective clauses. In this case, either back payments beckon or the banks can offer customers modified contracts with an effective interest rate adjustment clause. The changes apply retrospectively and also compensate for insufficiently paid interest in the past. According to BaFin, at least 247 banks and savings banks are affected. The total amount is open.

So far, banks have stood across the board

In the period between 1990 and 2010 in particular, the financial institutions offered a large number of premium savings contracts. These long-term contracts contain clauses that allow financial institutions to unilaterally change the guaranteed interest rate. They often did that in the low interest rate phase and cut savings rates, in some cases massively – at the expense of their customers. The Federal Court of Justice has meanwhile classified the clauses as ineffective.

BaFin Executive Director Thorsten Pötzsch refers to this in the general decree. He speaks of a “grievance” for consumers, which BaFin wants to remedy in terms of collective consumer protection. “We ensure that affected customers are comprehensively informed and legally treated,” says Pötzsch. Because for more than a year the supervisors have been trying to find a solution with the financial institutions in the interests of the customers, even at a round table – so far without success. The general decree shows that BaFin’s patience has come to an end.

Hundreds of thousands of customers affected

“We are assuming that banks and, above all, savings banks have concluded hundreds of thousands of premium savings contracts nationwide,” says financial expert Andrea Heyer from the consumer center in Saxony. She and her team have specialized in recalculating such contracts. More than 7700 customers from all over Germany have already contacted us.

As the consumer advocates have calculated together with experts, the financial institutions have calculated the interest rates too low for years in almost all cases. As a rule, consumers were unable to understand how they set the variable interest rate. Often the financial houses have lowered interest rates too much, in too large interest rate steps downwards. “Depending on the case, those affected are entitled to additional payments of a few hundred to over 40,000 euros in individual cases,” says Heyer. In this respect, she welcomes the fact that BaFin is now intervening – that is an important signal.

Suddenly it was 15,000 euros less

Karina Rother from Frankfurt, for example, signed such a premium savings contract at Frankfurter Sparkasse in the 1990s and wanted to do something for her retirement with it. “The Sparkasse promised me that with a term of 25 years it would really be worth it for me,” says Rother. She promised the customer steadily rising interest rates and ever higher cash rewards.

Rother assumed that she would get around 77,000 euros in the end – as it was calculated in an advertising flyer. Suddenly it should be around 15,000 euros less. In the end, she agreed with the Sparkasse on an extra payment of around 4,000 euros – but, says Rother: “It annoys me that a public institute in particular causes such trouble, even though it is in the interests of the company ‘Joe Bloggs’ should have in view. “When asked, the Sparkasse did not want to comment on the case because of banking secrecy.

Savings banks oriented towards the common good have a duty

Julian Merzbacher, consumer protection expert of the citizens’ movement Finanzwende, also sees the savings banks in particular as having an obligation to finally act and to approach customers on their own initiative. “It is a cheek that the public welfare-oriented institutes have so far mainly relied on the time factor and statutes of limitations when it comes to saving premiums”.

The general decree of BaFin also explicitly refers to contracts that have already been terminated. But the extent to which claims from customers are already statute-barred – or maybe not – is not a matter for BaFin, it says there, but the courts would have to clarify in case of doubt.

Big incomprehension among the banks

However, the credit institutions now have four weeks to appeal against the general ruling. This is currently being checked, according to the Deutsche Kreditwirtschaft, the umbrella association for the banking industry. “It is astonishing that the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority is pre-empting the courts,” said a written statement.

Because there is still another judgment pending at the Federal Court of Justice, according to which specific criteria banks have to adjust interest rates in long-term savings contracts. When this decision will be announced is not yet known – consumer advocates are expecting the verdict in the fall. And of course the German banking industry wants to take this into account, according to its own statements.

Don’t just accept comparison offers

But just waiting until then is not an option, according to BaFin. After all, it is uncertain when a decision by the Federal Court of Justice can be expected, according to the general ruling. As a result, the situation is unnecessarily prolonged for the financial supervisors, and consumers should now be informed urgently.

With a view to the general ruling, consumers do not have to do anything at first. However, you should pay attention to whether you will soon receive mail from your house bank regarding premium savings contracts or not. If comparative offers are made, consumer advocate Heyer recommends having them checked so that no saver is taken advantage of

Currency under $ 1.20 How weak is the euro going to be?

Status: 06/18/2021 2:09 p.m.

In the USA there are signs of a turnaround in interest rates, in Europe the key interest rate will probably remain low for a long time to come. That has been burdening the euro for days. How much will the common currency still become cheaper? The prospect of rising interest rates in the US has recently weighed on the euro. The common currency fell in the past few days from rates at 1.22 to below 1.19 US dollars. Experts cited the interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as an explanation for this strong movement. After years of zero interest rate policy, the American monetary authorities had promised interest rate hikes, at least for the longer term. Accordingly, two rate hikes can be expected by 2023.

First of all, the Fed will in all probability cut back its security purchases later in the year, with which it had pushed down long-term interest rates on the bond market in recent years. The expectation of an economic recovery with rising inflation rates alone had pushed the yield on ten-year US government bonds up from around 0.5 percent to just under 1.8 percent since the summer of last year.

Long-term rates still negative

Yields on the German stock market have also risen sharply in recent months, albeit at a significantly lower level to date. The yield on ten-year Bunds is still around minus 0.2 percent. In the low, the interest rate was only around minus 0.67 percent. Despite rising inflation rates in Germany and the euro area, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt unwilling to be, to follow the central bank colleagues in Washington and to consider at least less security purchases in the near future. In May, the inflation rate in the euro zone was 2.0 percent, slightly above the central bank’s price stability target. In Germany they moved Producer prices even rose 7.2 percent in May compared to the previous year and therefore stronger than it has been for almost 13 years. The prices were driven by the sharply rising prices of so-called intermediate goods.

Bundesbank boss for the end of the bond purchases

“In the long run this will work noticeable in consumer prices The economists at Commerzbank said: “A central bank in crisis mode, which, as ECB President Christine Lagarde said in her last press conference, does not even talk about whether a reduction in bond purchases might be necessary. appears well behind the curve in comparison. “In the opinion of the experts, the monetary authorities have thus missed the entry into the exit from the zero interest rate policy.

An opinion that is also shared by the President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann. Weidmann has spoken out in favor of an early end to the trillion dollar bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the pandemic. The focus is on the purchase program called “PEPP” the monetary guardian. “When the emergency for which the PEPP was created is over, it must be ended,” Weidmann told the “Handelsblatt”. But whether Weidmann will prevail is unclear. There are thus signs for the near future that the dollar could retain or even expand its interest rate advantage.

German exporters benefit

For German vacationers who want to spend their free time outside the euro area, that would be bad news – they would have to pay more for foreign currency. The export-oriented German economy, on the other hand, is benefiting from the trend. Last year, just 36 percent of German exports went to the countries of the euro area. And even if you include EU countries with their own currencies such as Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, which has since left the country, the share of exports last year was just over half.

A good sixth of exports even went directly to the USA. In fact, the impact of the dollar rate on German exports is likely to be significantly greater. Because some international currencies are directly linked to the US dollar. These include, for example, the Saudi riyal or the diram of the United Arab Emirates. Both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are countries that traditionally buy and import many German products with the money they earn from oil exports.

Dollar weakness later in the year?

If the US dollar gains strength, German companies have two options. Either they reap additional profits with unchanged prices. Or they react with price cuts in order to gain market share – both attractive prospects for companies.

But at this point in time it seems questionable how long the euro will actually continue to decline. Because for autumn and winter, experts like those at Commerzbank are expecting inflationary dynamics to decline again in the USA. Then “the US dollar euphoria will soon be over”

The sound becomes sharper Fed sees two rate hikes in 2023

Status: 16.06.2021 8:59 p.m.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged. However, the loose monetary policy will not go on forever. The stock markets are falling, and the euro is also falling. Despite the waning corona pandemic and rising inflation rates, the US Federal Reserve continues to keep its key interest rate in a range between 0.00 and 0.25 percent. The monthly bond purchases of $ 120 billion are also expected to continue for the time being. At least until progress is made towards achieving the bank’s goals. In particular, this means “considerable progress in terms of price stability and employment”. This was stated by the monetary authorities after their two-day routine interest rate meeting in Washington. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed is still a long way from achieving its goal: “But we are making good progress.” The bank continues to blame temporary factors for the recently stronger rise in inflation data. At the same time, she expects inflation to rise to 3.4 percent this year and drop to 2.2 percent in 2022. There is also increased economic activity and employment. Powell said the discussion about scaling back the extremely loose monetary policy had begun. The point is when it will reduce its regular bond purchases. However, Powell was not specific. Basically, the Fed chief said that if you will, you have talked about wanting to talk about the subject. With such cautious wording Powell should try to avoid panic-like reactions in the financial markets.

Two rate hikes envisaged in 2023

For the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, however, the monetary authorities signaled that there could be two interest rate hikes of half a percentage point each in 2023. So far, the Fed’s interest rate projection provided for an unchanged monetary policy with a key interest rate close to zero. After all, seven monetary authorities are now even of the opinion that a tightening could come next year. Not only has the interest rate forecast been raised, expectations for economic growth and inflation are also higher in some cases. For this year, the Fed is expecting macroeconomic growth of 7.0 percent instead of the 6.5 percent previously expected.

Share prices are falling

Wall Street reacts with price losses, all leading stock indices give way in an initial reaction. The leading index Dow Jones lost around one percent, the other indices are slightly below. Prices are also falling on the bond market, with the yield on ten-year US government bonds increasing to 1.56 percent. The euro is losing significantly against the dollar and is currently trading at 1.2026 dollars, around one cent less than in today’s trading

Some people may question the minimum deposit standard of 300,000. In fact, it is common for many banks to see 300,000. The minimum deposit standard for large deposit certificates is mostly 200,000, but some are 300,000, and the higher may be 500,000 or 1 million. Of course, different deposit standards can obtain different interest rates, so the minimum deposit standard of 300,000 It is a very normal thing.

The second is the 4.85% rate of return. Although this rate of return is high, it is still within a normal level. At present, my country implements a dual-track system that combines the central bank’s benchmark interest rate and market interest rate. In 2015, deposit interest rate restrictions were fully lifted, and there was no ceiling for deposit interest rates. For example, in 2019, bank deposit interest rates could reach 6% when they were the highest in the year.Preparing for Medical Exams

Although there is no limit on the maximum deposit interest rate, there is one requirement, that is, to be able to absorb the cost of debt and not to engage in vicious competition for the sake of soliciting savings. Just like now, some merchants maliciously cut prices in order to solicit customers, and ultimately will only disrupt the order and operation of the entire market. At present, it is not uncommon for the deposit interest rate to reach 5% in the three-year or five-year deposits of some small and medium-sized banks. Therefore, the deposit interest rate of 4.85% is still within the normal range, which is not outrageous.

The biggest difference between large deposit certificates and large deposits is that the issuance of large deposit certificates requires filing with the central bank and requires relevant qualifications to be issued. However, large deposits are different. Each bank can launch it on its own. The nature of the deposit is actually the bank’s fixed deposit.Preparing for Medical Exams

In addition, the interest rate of large deposit certificates will also be restricted. At present, the highest interest rate for three-year large deposit certificates of state-owned banks is only 3.985%, and the highest interest rate for three-year large deposit certificates of joint-stock commercial banks is only 4.126%. Local small and medium-sized banks The interest rate for large deposit certificates is generally only around 4.3%, so the 4.85% interest rate is not much like large deposit certificates, but more like large deposits.

It is normal for local small and medium-sized banks to offer a 4.85% interest rate for large deposits over a three-year or five-year period. Although the three-year deposit interest rate of state-owned banks is only about 3.5%, 4.85% has far exceeded the market level, but due to the low strength and popularity of these small and medium-sized banks, in order to attract savings, they can only increase the deposit interest rate substantially, and in order to effectively reduce the interest rate. The cost of storage, so appropriately raising the threshold for deposits, is also the usual method of these banks.

Ratings at a glance How creditworthy are which countries?

Status: 15.06.2021 01:05 p.m. Credit ratings from the major US rating agencies help determine the interest rates at which a state can borrow money. How do Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s rate the creditworthiness of the countries in the eurozone and other countries? Who gets the top grade, the “Triple-A”? An overview of the current credit ratings from Belgium to Cyprus.

Source: rating agencies / as of June 15, 2021

Source: rating agencies / as of June 15, 2021

background 07/14/2011

Smoke and steam rise from the Belchatow Power Station, Europe’s largest coal-fired power plant in Poland. Photo: Reuters. The use of fossil fuels continues in the face of rising global energy demand, continued consumption and investment in new fossil fuel plants, and energy use, the report said. lower biomass such as using wood or agricultural waste in heating and cooking. Burning fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil produces carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming. As concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere rise to record levels, governments have called for stronger emissions cuts and curbs on fossil fuel use to meet global climate goals. The exhaust pipe of a car is photographed on the street in Berlin, Germany. Photo: Reuters. The share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix was 80.2% in 2019, compared with 80.3% in 2009, while renewables such as wind and solar accounted for 11, REN21 said. 2% in the energy structure in 2019 and 8.7% in 2009. The remainder of the energy mix consists of traditional biomass, which is used largely for cooking or heating in homes in the developing world. However, in many regions, including parts of China, the European Union, India, and the United States, it is now cheaper to build new wind or solar photovoltaic plants than to operate new ones. existing coal plant. Renewable energy is also competing with new natural gas-fired power plants in terms of cost in many locations and is the cheapest source of new electricity generation in countries on all continents, the report said. big land. “We are waking up to the bitter reality that the climate policy promises of the past ten years have been almost empty words,” said Rana Adib, CEO of REN21. “The share of fossil fuels in final energy consumption has not shifted an inch,” she added. In many countries, the Covid-19 economic recovery packages aim to stimulate further investment in renewable energy. But renewable investments only account for about one-sixth of investment in fossil fuels, the report added.

Local time Monday (June 14), a survey by the New York Federal Reserve showed that American households’ expectations for next year’s inflation, housing prices, income and expenditure growth all rose in May; the median one-year inflation expectation in May increased from 3.4 in April. % Rose to 4.0%, a new high since the inflation expectations index was launched in 2013.

On the same day, another data released by the New York Fed also received attention. The data shows that the Fed accepted US$583.9 billion in fixed-rate reverse repurchase, which continued to hit a record high and exceeded US$500 billion for four consecutive trading days. This reflects the increasing liquidity in the US dollar financing market.

In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Thursday (June 10) showed that the U.S. May unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate was 5%, the highest since August 2008, with an expected 4.7% and a previous value of 4.2%; the United States 5 The monthly unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate was 3.8%, a new high since 1992, expected to be 3.4%, and the previous value was 3.0%.

Inflation continues to soar and liquidity is rampant. More and more institutions believe that the Fed will start the process of debt reduction at the end of this year or early next year. Some institutions even warn the Fed to ignore the risks caused by inflation!

Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase, is more direct. He said that JPMorgan Chase has been “efficiently hoarding” cash instead of using it to buy U.S. Treasury bonds or other investments because it is more direct. High inflation may force the Fed to raise interest rates.

In fact, the performance of the market may also reflect some situations. Last Friday (June 11), in the absence of heavy data or event stimulus, the US dollar index rose significantly and once touched 90.60, while gold fell by more than 20 US dollars. The above-mentioned market may be as simple as non-profit-taking, and it is not ruled out that investors are beginning to bet that the Fed will tighten policy soon. But the final decision is in the hands of the Fed.

“Terror data” + Federal Reserve interest rate, this week the market ushered in the ultimate test?

On Tuesday (June 15), the United States will release data such as the monthly retail sales rate in May, the PPI in May in the United States, the manufacturing index of the New York Fed in June in the United States, the industrial output in May in the United States, and the NAHB real estate market index in June in the United States. Among them, the US retail sales data in May has attracted much attention.

The market expects the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States to fall by 0.7% in May, which was unchanged from the previous value. If the data is in line with or lower than expected, or suggest that the effect of the White House fiscal stimulus is gradually fading, it may weaken the Fed’s expectations of tightening policy. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of US economic output, US retail sales data often trigger huge market shocks, so it is commonly called “terrorist data.”

In addition, the performance of the US PPI in May cannot be ignored. As a leading indicator of price trends, the performance of the PPI indicator will reflect the relevant situation of production costs. The market expects that the US PPI will rise at an annual rate of 6.3% in May, which will further reveal the pressure on the transmission of production costs. The overall performance of the above two data may cause greater interference to the short-term trend of the US dollar.

But the market is more concerned about the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. At 02:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday (June 17), the Federal Reserve FOMC announced interest rate resolutions, policy statements and economic expectations; at 02:30, Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference.

As the CPI data for two consecutive months “exploded”, whether the Fed will change its description of inflation in this policy statement will be one of the focuses of the market’s attention. If the bank still insists that inflation is temporary, it implies that it should not rush to change the current easing policy, which may cause the US dollar to suffer a new round of crit. However, if the Fed admits that inflation poses risks, it will increase expectations for tightening policies, thereby providing strong support for the US dollar.

In addition, because the scale of reverse repurchase frequently hits new highs, whether the Fed makes a relevant statement on this is also worthy of attention. At the same time, the Fed’s latest quarterly economic outlook and dot-map will provide more guidance for judging the FOMC’s economic outlook, labor market, inflation expectations, and interest rate trends, and they cannot be ignored.

In short, if the Fed releases its hawkish tendencies, especially on the issue of inflation, it will be considered by the market as a signal that the bank is about to turn, and may become the fuse for the dollar to initiate a bull market; however, if the Fed still insists on inflation If it is temporary, the market will interpret that the bank is not in a hurry to tighten policy, which may cause more plunges in the dollar.

Technical analysis of the US dollar index: the performance of a position is extremely critical

The daily chart of the US dollar index shows that the price fell to 89.54 (May 25 low, A point) after hitting 90.91 (X point) on May 13 and then the market rose and hit 90.63 (June 4 high, Point D), but quickly retreated significantly and formed a bearish Gartley pattern: 0.618XA=AB, 0.886AB=BC, 1.27BC=CD, 0.786XA=AD, AB=CD.

However, the downward market was supported by 0.786AD (89.77) and stabilized the downward trend line since March 31, avoiding further expansion of the decline. The key pressure above is at 90.63. If it breaks through effectively, in addition to destroying the above-mentioned Gartley pattern, the market will also constitute a bullish 123 rule, or confirm a phased bottom. It does not rule out expanding the increase to 91.00 or even 91.50.

If the price drops significantly below 89.77, the market does not rule out falling to 89.50 or even 89.21 levels for support.

Take the just released iOS 15 as an example, the new system’s function upgrades are mostly soft upgrades around “sharing and connection between people”, which is more in line with the needs of many people today. On the other hand, most of the improvements in the iOS 15 interface are details, and there are not many highlights, and some are uninteresting.

I think that when deciding on the new features of iOS 15, Craig finally chose the most suitable for the needs of the moment among a bunch of new features, and lowered the priority of these features in the new design interface. But even so, after the iOS 15 Beta version went live, everyone’s enthusiasm for upgrading remains unabated.

What exactly is the upgrade system?

As the iPhone continues to sell well, there are hundreds of millions of iPhones on the market. The huge number of terminals makes iOS gradually become one of the mainstream mobile systems. At the same time, Apple’s iOS-based services are also increasing.

Apple Arcade game subscription service. Picture from: Apple

In addition to the App Store, iOS also has a number of streaming media services such as Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple Arcade, and Apple TV+, covering almost all aspects of music, games, reading, and video. The iOS device has almost become a distribution platform for various services.

But in order for these services to be better introduced to the terminal, there must be a prerequisite for maintaining the update rate of the terminal system. When looking at the page on Apple’s official website that introduces the iOS package of services, there will often be a small line “make sure that it has the latest version of iOS or iPadOS, macOS, or tvOS”. To put it bluntly, your device must be updated to the latest system. In order to use these latest services.

According to the data shared by Apple before WWDC, 90% of the iPhones launched in the past four years have iOS 14 installed, and if the sample is expanded to all iPhones, this proportion is also as high as 85%, which is already quite the number. It’s amazing, the Android next door “is greedy and crying.”

And 15% of those who have not installed iOS 14 include devices that cannot run the new system, that is, the processor is lower than the A9 chip. If iPadOS is also counted as a sub-category of iOS, the proportion of iPads with iPadOS 14 installed is 79%, which is lower than that of the iPhone. However, considering that the iPad has a longer life cycle and is mostly used for entertainment, it has such a high installation rate. It’s a very good result.

iOS 14.

Judging from these data, iOS 14 has a very high installation rate. If you round up, almost every iPhone will be upgraded to the latest iOS 14. System fragmentation seems to be a non-existent problem for iOS.

Taking a long view, in recent years, every generation of iOS systems has a very high upgrade rate, such as iOS 13 reaching 77%, iOS 12 reaching 80%, and iOS 11 reaching 85%. It is worth noting that within a few months after the release of the new system, the installation rate of the new iOS system will quickly climb to 50%.

Apart from the factory pre-installation of the new iPhone, there are also some other factors. The fundamental point is to repair system vulnerabilities and fix system bugs, as well as introduce new functions and services.

However, considering the necessity, in order to ensure system security, it is necessary to upgrade the new system to repair vulnerabilities and bugs. After all, smart phones have become the center of life, and basically everything is around it. The loopholes in the system can be easily exploited, thereby revealing privacy or being exploited by those who are interested.

And system bugs will bring inconvenience to daily use. In fact, regardless of iOS or Android, when each major version number is updated, there will be some system bugs, and many minor versions will be used to fix them in order to avoid affecting daily use.

“Flat” iOS 7 and “Imitated” iOS 6. Image from: hipertextual

Up to now, iOS has gone through nearly 15 years, and overall it has matured. Recently, the function changes of the new iOS are mostly on the details. It is difficult to see that the iOS 6 to iOS 7 changed from “quasi-object” to ” A great leap forward in “flat” style.

From this point of view, the small functions and small designs of the new system no longer have such a big motivation to encourage people to upgrade, but are replaced by new services.

As mentioned above, new services such as Apple Music and Apple Arcade will often rely on new system versions. Take the recent ALAC lossless audio and Dolby Atmos features, it requires iOS update to 14.6. Subsequent new systems may have more articles on the diversity of their own services.

The motivation for system upgrades has quietly changed

In the past, system updates were mostly a proactive behavior. That is, the user knows the new system, and actively goes to the settings to check and receive OTA push, and then restart to complete the upgrade. Or, after receiving the new system push, the system prompts the user to upgrade.

But from now on, iOS and many customized Android systems have opened the “Senseless Upgrade”, which automatically downloads the OTA update package at leisure or at night to complete the “Senseless” upgrade.

Apple introduced the “Automatic Update” function in iOS 12, and it is turned on by default. Whether it is iOS, iPadOS or macOS, there are such options. This is why many people wake up overnight and “renew” their iPhone next to their pillow. .

This was originally a very thoughtful function, especially when repairing sudden system vulnerabilities, it can be repaired quickly in time, which is also quite necessary for users. It’s just that there are too many bugs in the new iOS system, especially the frequency reduction problem of iOS 14.5.1. The “automatic update” function is undoubtedly annoying.

Speaking of the drastic decline in the stability of the new iOS system, we cannot fail to mention Apple’s “timely” shutdown verification of the old system version. Take iOS 14.5.1 as an example. After Apple launched iOS 14.5.1, it simply turned off the signature verification of iOS 14.5.

In the face of an iPhone that is experiencing a “Schrodinger” frequency reduction, you must either endure the frequency reduction and wait for the iOS 14.6 official version to be released, or upgrade to the more unstable Beta version, which is really a dilemma.

Turn off the signature verification of the old system prematurely to prevent the “rollback” of the device system. The original purpose was to prevent the use of lower version iOS vulnerabilities to break through the iPhone. The original intention was to be safe.

Picture from: ipertino.com

However, recent different voices about maintaining a high installation rate for the new iOS system are also based on Apple’s move. In other words, there are complaints about Apple’s overactive closure of the signature verification of the old version of iOS, and the belief that the new iOS system can Maintaining a high installation rate is related to this move.

In fact, there is no strong correlation between the two. First, upgrading through OTA is a very simple process, but downgrading requires backup and online brushing with the help of tools. The threshold is much higher, and it is not for ordinary users to operate. Or willing to learn and try.

Furthermore, some minor problems encountered after the iOS system upgrade do not affect everyone, or not everyone cares. In short, the early “closing” of the old system has little to do with the increase in the installation rate of the new iOS system.

In general, the official promotion of upgrades is actually focused on filling loopholes, fixing bugs, and new features and new services. As for the “small means” that appear to be more humane, they are auxiliary but not decisive factors.

When iOS was born, the biggest advantage was its maturity and stability. After years of evolution, it has covered more and more services and functions, and iOS has become more and more complex. Naturally, the size of the OTA installation package for each major iOS version is also increasing.

Picture from: consideringapple

With each update, the requirements for users have become higher, one is the network and the other is the capacity of the phone itself (that is, 64GB users).

To this end, when iOS 15 was released, Apple said that future updates might provide users with two options, to choose to get all the new features of iOS 15, or to choose to get only the security update of iOS 14. After the network or capacity is ready, go to get the full upgrade.

The starting point of such a move is the safety of the iOS system. In recent years, iOS has continuously emphasized “privacy protection”, and better privacy protection has become a unique feature of the iOS system.

Therefore, when we talk about “privacy”, I can think of the app tracking transparency feature brought by iOS 14.5, and I can also think of the new iCloud Private Relay feature on iOS 15. Perhaps in the future, there may be a “privacy” card for promoting system upgrades.

In the Internet world, a series of effective privacy protections are provided. Just as it sounds, people want to upgrade and update as soon as possible. After all, who doesn’t want “privacy” and who doesn’t want to be “invisible”?

In the final analysis, iOS has had a high installation rate before, and more of it relied on new features, new designs, and new features. In the future, when the installed capacity of iOS is large enough, providing new, interesting and diverse services will be the driving force to promote the upgrade of the new system.

Now, or on the new iOS system in the future, better “privacy protection” will be more likely to convince you to upgrade. However, no matter how the motivation for upgrading the new iOS system changes, the premise must be that the new system is sufficiently stable and mature.

Poland’s high inflation With price jumps from the pandemic

Status: 08.06.2021 8:12 a.m.

The Polish inflation rate is well above the German rate – now more than five percent. In many ways, this is a consequence of the pandemic, experts say. But when will the central bank react? From Martin Adam, ARD studio Warsaw The pandemic is not over yet when another topic is pushing the front pages of Polish newspapers. “Why so expensive?” Asks the “Gazeta Wyborcza”. The “Rzeczpospolita” replies: “We pay for growth with inflation.” In fact, what is happening in Poland is what financial experts in Germany are warning of: the inflation rate is rising – currently to a ten-year high of well over five percent, according to the standardized European calculation. That is one of the highest values ​​in the European Union. For comparison: In Germany, the inflation rate was 2.5 percent in May .

Devaluation clearly noticeable

The devaluation of the Polish zloty is clearly noticeable, explains financial market expert Pawel Majtkowski. “Compared to last year, wages have risen by ten percent, but the prices of fruit and vegetables by 20 percent. So we are already feeling the price increases,” he says. “In addition, there are higher production costs, transport costs and the costs of higher wages.” All of this is reflected in prices. Inflation is most evident in the case of fuels. According to the national statistics office, gasoline and diesel for private cars have become more than 30 percent more expensive within a month.

“Polish economy is doing well”

But don’t panic, it’s all normal and a consequence of the corona pandemic, explains economic advisor Lidia Adamska. “Inflation in Poland reflects processes that we see in the post-Covid landscape around the world. But the Polish economy is doing well,” she says. “The gross domestic product is growing, the employment and unemployment figures are also optimistic.” There are various factors that are currently weighing on the Polish currency, only some actually have to do with the corona pandemic: The low interest rates, which are supposed to stabilize the economy, make money cheap. It is available in large quantities, which always carries the risk of being devalued. After the rapid slump last year, crude oil prices are also picking up again, making gasoline and diesel more expensive. In addition, there are higher food prices because Polish agriculture has not recovered from the past two years of drought. A bad harvest means high prices. With restaurants and hotels that are slowly reopening in Poland, demand is also increasing.

Raising the minimum wage is having an effect

The political decision at the beginning of the year to increase the gross minimum wage to 18.30 zloty per hour, the equivalent of around 4.10 euros, also has an impact. This is supposed to distribute the Polish economic boom more fairly. However, the service industry in particular, which has been shaken by the corona lockdown, is passing the higher wage costs through to customers. The bottom line is that everything will be expensive. But it will certainly be countered soon, suspects the economics expert Ignacy Morawski. “In a sense, inflation is the price of low unemployment,” he says. “I suspect the central bank will soon raise interest rates to control inflation.” When exactly this will happen and how far inflation will rise, hardly anyone in Poland has yet wanted to make a forecast.

Typically, recently, the post about beef steak has made netizens admire each other. In less than an hour, this post received nearly 3k likes and hundreds of comments. And the most interesting thing is that looking at this tiny product, everyone immediately remembers a famous dish in Hanoi, which is Hoe Nhai steak. According to the share of the owner of these photos, Ms. Nhu Quynh Nguyen, this product is made from clay, mixed colors and resin. It is known that to make this steak tray, it took Quynh more than 1 day to make every little detail in it. Except for the aluminum tray, all of them are made by the owner himself. You can see the feat of making each piece of potato in detail, the bread is broken in half, the fried egg on the edge or the chili sauce… That makes the netizens admire each other. – Oh, at first, I thought it was a cold day that you made beef steak. After reading it, I know the tiny food. Love so much. – The fried egg is still a bit burnt, it’s amazing. – Oh my god, looking at the omelet, my eyes are round and flat. – It looks so magical! Looking at this product, many people immediately realize that this is Hoe Nhai steak – a very famous steakhouse in Hanoi that almost all gourmets know. Currently, this post still attracts the attention of many netizens. Source: Nhu Quynh Nguyen/ Love Kitchen Group (Esheep Kitchen family)

Inside the restaurant, every 4-5 am, Mr. Hien and his companion, Ms. Nguyen Thi Yen Anh (who lives in Go Vap district) and a few associates are busy preparing “restaurant-standard” meals to send. donated to the anti-epidemic forces of the district. Mr. Hien confided that the restaurant had just opened for about a month, when the COVID-19 epidemic developed complicatedly, Go Vap district alone had to implement social distancing according to Directive 16. He had to give most of his staff a break. No longer accepting visitors, difficult situation surrounds. Mr. Pham Minh Hien (right cover) takes care of the rice portions sent to the anti-epidemic force. However, during the difficult time that seemed to be deadlocked, Yen Anh – his companion offered to support him with a part of the funding, contributing money to help him keep the restaurant fire, instead of selling as before. will cook rice to send to anti-epidemic forces, instead of words of encouragement for them to focus on their work. The idea just came up, everyone started working right away. From May 29 until now, every day, Mr. Hien and his friends cook more than 100 servings of rice with gratitude. Initially, the money for cooking rice was paid by Mr. Hien and Ms. Yen Anh. Many of his business partners see that, they support rice, meat and fish… Many friends also started sending money to support. “They want to come with me. They told me to go for a long distance, not every day, sometimes 16 to 21 days, with a daily budget of more than 3 million, one person will not be able to bear it. So the friends decided to accompany and contribute a little heart to him to maintain this meaningful work “- Mr. Hien said. The daily meal prepared by Mr. Hien and his friends is as delicious as the restaurant meals. Each set of rice has stir-fried dishes, savory dishes, soups, and desserts. Salty dishes always change from fish to meat to chicken, eggs, and soup are also changed every day so that the eater does not get bored. Because more than 100 meals are prepared every day, all dishes are planned by Mr. Hien in advance to order ingredients or so that sponsors can support the ingredients through that plan. Just like that, every morning from 4 to 5, everyone started working. Working until about 10:30, the policemen in the district will drive to the restaurant to receive and transfer to the anti-epidemic force in Go Vap. When asked about the difficult situation of the epidemic, it is impossible to do business as before, why did he and his friends choose this volunteer work, Mr. Hien just smiled and said: “Hien thinks that everyone is having a hard time now, but there is a common difficulty, not his own, if I have the strength, I try to help everyone a little, each person contributes a little effort, agrees with him. If you are on the front line against the epidemic, the epidemic will pass faster, and from then on, we hope to return to trading soon.” Along with Mr. Hien for the past year, Mr. Nguyen Cong Vinh said that every day when moving through the epidemic prevention checkpoint, the brothers and sisters at the checkpoint were too hard, had to endure the sun and rain, while the strength of the family. The restaurant is cooking, so everyone wants to contribute the most practical things to the brothers and sisters through rice portions. “Brothers and sisters, please be confident, behind you, we will always support you” – Mr. Vinh messaged. Hien’s group of friends each have a job, everyone is busy preparing 120 meals to send to the anti-epidemic force. Today, the main course of the meal is fried eggs, fried vegetables, soup and indispensable fruit dessert. The meals are carefully cared for according to “restaurant” standards. Starting early in the morning until about 9 o’clock, everyone divides the food into each tray. The daily cost to cook more than 100 meals is about 3 million VND. Each bag contains 5 servings, the staff of the restaurant check that each serving has enough chopsticks, spoons or fruit for dessert. “Why does this portion of rice have so few eggs, why is everyone full?” – Hien said to the group. After a while, fragrant steamed eggs are added immediately. Gratitude portions to encourage the Go Vap anti-epidemic force. At about 10 o’clock, the police car of Go Vap district ran to the restaurant to receive the rice portions, then divided among the gatekeepers at the entrance to the district. Mr. Hien said he will maintain this job with friends until the end of social distance, when the epidemic situation subsides, the brothers and sisters will no longer be on duty to work as stressful as now.

People quickly installed the Bluezone application to prevent and control the Covid-19 epidemic. Bluezone application has the effect of saving contact history between users of this application. Bluezone’s mechanism of action helps to find out exactly F1 from F0, F2 from F1. This is one of the effective, low-cost measures to help prevent and control the Covid-19 pandemic. To continue to support the authorities, the Department of Information and Communications is promoting propaganda, advocacy and guiding people to install Bluezone application on mobile devices at the request of the Board of Directors. Provincial Director of Covid-19 epidemic prevention and control. The Department of Information and Communications has also just sent a written request to the Department of Telecommunications to make daily statistics and provide the province with details to the commune level on the situation of mobile subscribers installing the Bluezone application. Thereby, the locality grasped and took measures to propagate and mobilize people to do this well. News, photo: Minh Huong

On May 18, he decided to stand out and cook about 400 servings of rice, giving it to people in need in the area. Because it was a spontaneous action, he announced on his personal page, asked his relatives to notify the worker’s accommodation so that everyone could know. Mr. Nguyen Van Tu (gray shirt) carried out the activity of cooking rice and giving gifts to workers in the blockade area. “I used to run a restaurant business, so the utensils or the kitchen were available. However, the money for the materials was all paid for by me,” Tu told Zing. Hearing about the meaningful activity, some neighbors, friends and relatives also came to help the owner of the restaurant. From 5am, people started to prepare a large amount of vegetables, meat and fish and then cook to deliver rice at around 10am. Unexpectedly, 400 meals prepared by Mr. Tu and everyone were quickly distributed on the first day. Even, because he was a bit “overwhelmed”, he planned to take a break on May 19, waiting for the next day to continue, when many calls and messages asking for help returned, making him unable to bear it. “Many workers are very guilty. They are people from other provinces to work, do not have relatives here. The urgent blockade has put many people in difficult situations, some people say that the past few days have been full of instant noodles except for meals. “. Also after the first meal, some benefactors knew about the activity, so they donated some money and materials to help Mr. Tu. The dishes are divided into boxes with hot rice and distributed to everyone. On the second day of the activity, his group cooked a record of 850 servings, divided into 2 meals, 600 in the morning, 250 in the afternoon. Everyone cooked whatever they wanted, braised meat, fried vegetables, fried beans, fish sauce… about 20 The dishes are neatly arranged, full on the table waiting to be divided with rice. Because the locality is implementing social distancing, Tu also recommends that people limit concentration and arrange for a time slot to distribute meals for each area. He also asked the representatives of the innkeepers to come pick up meals and distribute them to the workers. “Sometimes when the rice ran out, but there were still people texting asking for food, I took the rest of the noodles from the restaurant for everyone, hoping to help them through the meal.” Unable to do business since the implementation of social distancing, Mr. Tu’s source of income has also been greatly affected. Therefore, even though he has a heart, he is afraid that he will not be able to continue the rice donation activity for too long. He plans to maintain it for the next few days, prioritizing those who have not been received in the past 2 days and then counting. “Being able to help people, even if I’m hungry for 1 or 2 days, I’m very happy. Most of the people and workers here are still struggling, not many people have savings to manage in such a situation. Hopefully, the epidemic will soon be pushed back so that everyone can return to their old rhythms,” he expressed.

Before this fluctuation, many users wait for the price of VGA to decrease, to buy a graphics card to install in their computer at a cheaper price. However, this is unlikely to happen. “Even when the coin price has plummeted, people who install buffalo plows are still profitable for many reasons. VGA is still sold out in the market, so there is no reason to reduce the price too deeply,” Nguyen Bao, manager at a major computer store in Ho Chi Minh City shared with Zing . Coin price falls, “plowers” are still profitable “Plowing” coins is actually the process of using machines to perform calculations to validate transactions on the blockchain network. This concept holds true for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and coins that use Proof of Work (PoW) consensus. Currently, the “buffalo” installations with computer graphics cards mainly plow Ethereum. Although the price of Ethereum has plummeted, the market for buying and selling “buffaloes” is still very active. Photo: Chi Kien. When a transaction is validated and a block is completed, the fastest finisher will be rewarded with a pre-specified amount of cryptocurrency. From the performance of the computer and the difficulty of the network, the plow system owner can estimate how many coins he will collect per day. Since the number of people participating in Ethereum mining fluctuates constantly, the difficulty of mining also changes. If mining during a period of low prices, but many people quit mining, the difficulty decreases, the “farmers” plow coins still earn more Ethereum per day. As a result, they are still profitable. “Participants in plowing coins are only interested in profit. Although the price has decreased, but every day they dig more, they are still profitable. Therefore, looking at the price of Ethereum falling and saying that VGA is going to be cheap is not baseless,” said Mr. Bao. Compared to the beginning of January, the price of Ethereum has increased by about 3 times. As a result, market participants “plowing” the coin were profitable. When using applications on the Ethereum blockchain, users pay a small fee called a gas fee. This fee is also charged in Ethereum. In addition to the reward for completing a block, the farmer who plows the coin is also entitled to a portion of the gas fee. According to Etherscan, the price of gas has increased over the past few days due to many participants trading on the Ethereum network. Screenshots. During the volatility of the market, the number of investors pouring money into trading also increased. According to statistics from Etherscan, gas fees increased sharply on May 19, which is also the day the entire cryptocurrency market plummeted. In other words, once participating in the mining network, mining rig owners have many opportunities to earn money. The profit from the rig is not entirely dependent on the price of the cryptocurrency. Don’t wait for VGA prices to drop in the near future VGA price in the market still depends on supply – demand factors. The demand of miners has increased sharply, while ordinary users still need to buy cards to play games and work, making the balance of “demand” always heavy. Meanwhile, the source with VGA is not guaranteed. The global chip crisis lasted for the past year, making it difficult for manufacturers to ensure output. Domestic distributors, even if they wanted to, could not import large quantities. “Every month we can only import a few hundred VGAs. This quantity is much lower compared to other components. It is very difficult to meet the needs of dealers,” said The Vuong, a product manager at a distributor based in Hanoi. Many “buffalo plow” owners have broken even, so there is no need to sell off the rig when the price drops. They profit from the reduced difficulty, even willing to shut down if necessary to wait for the price to rise. Photo: King Kai. According to information from some dealers, the price of VGA in Vietnam market is still cheaper than surrounding countries such as Thailand and China. Therefore, the amount of VGA imported has been less and sometimes has to be shared with other markets. On groups that share the experience of installing buffalo plowing machines, the market for mining rigs is still very active, the number of daily new buy and sell posts is still very much. Occasionally there are questions and answers about the situation when the price of Ethereum goes down, but many rig owners are still very optimistic. “Actually, many people buy the system and then give it to someone else to manage, and collect money every month. It’s very easy to do. Those who joined early have now broken even, just less profit. Those who have participated for a long time understand the market too well, they can’t easily sell their ‘fishing rods’,” said Mr. Bao. In June, a number of component manufacturers will launch a VGA line with poorer performance of “ploughing coins”, called lite hash rate. Due to inefficiency when plowing coins, this VGA line may be less attractive to plowmen and suitable for gamers. However, not excluding the possibility of price fluctuations, Ethereum’s difficulty makes mining rig owners also “empty” low performance when needed.

After Norwich and Watford are sure to have two official tickets to promote the Premier League 2021/22, the remaining spot will be a play-off between four Brenford clubs (78 points), Bournemouth (77), Swansea City (77) and Barnsley (77). When the Championship 2020/21 has 2 rounds left and the distance between Barnsley and the team behind Reading is 8 points. Therefore, the four clubs mentioned above will face off to win the remaining tickets. Play-off Championship has 2 rounds of semi-finals and finals. The semifinals will be kicked out in the first and second round format. The two teams won the play-off final. They will attend the most expensive match in the world. The team that wins the play-off final wins the final ticket to promote the Premier League 2021/22. According to Sky Sports, the ticket to the Premier League is worth more than 100 million pounds. In the 2017/18 season, Fulham pocketed a £ 149.3 million after going up to the 2018/19 Premier League, beating Aston Villa in the 2017/18 play-off final. Compared to current clubs, Brenford is desperate to get a ticket to the Premier League next season. In the 2019/20 season, Brentford clashed with Fulham in the world’s most expensive match. Unfortunately, they lost the match again and let Fulham move up to the Premier League. At that time, the Telegraph reported, the amount of money that Fulham got from this match up to 170 million pounds.

The sinking market is becoming the backbone of online book consumption. On April 20, Pinduoduo released the “2020 Duoduo Reading Report” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”), which demonstrated the new trend of online book consumption through platform big data analysis. The report shows that in 2020, consumers’ book orders on Pinduoduo will increase by more than 189%. Among them, Guangdong, Shandong, Henan and other populous provinces accounted for the top three in the country, while Xinjiang, Tibet and other large northwestern regions have the fastest growth rate. At the same time, book orders from rural areas increased by more than 180% year-on-year. Books as standard products are a category that cannot be bypassed by e-commerce platforms. After the epidemic, the scale of online book sales has further expanded. Relevant data shows that in the first quarter of this year, book retail sales increased by more than 30%, which was higher than the growth rate of national merchandise retail sales. The number of online market sales increased by 20% year-on-year. Pinduoduo, which has nearly 800 million active buyers, has made efforts to include the book category as a key subsidy, aiming at the sinking market to find increments. It is understood that on April 15th, Pinduoduo’s “Duo Duo Reading Month” announced the launch of a 50 million yuan reading fund, and dozens of publishing houses and book companies have jointly provided special subsidies for Chinese and foreign classics and best-selling books. Guangdong has the most “spelling books” Rural book transactions increased by more than 180% Since 2014, “Read for All” has been included in the government work report eight times in a row. The 2021 government work report pointed out that it is necessary to promote the integrated construction of urban and rural public cultural service systems, innovatively implement cultural benefits for the people, and advocate universal reading. Data from the Pinduoduo platform shows that reading for the whole people has gradually become a habit of new consumer groups. To a certain extent, in terms of geographical distribution, Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Hebei have become the places with the most “spelling books”, which is inseparable from the huge population base of each region. Reading does not distinguish between regions. Xinjiang and Tibet surpassed Shanghai and Beijing to become the regions with the fastest increase in the order volume of “Jianshu”. With the full popularity of online shopping, the Northwest has shown a higher enthusiasm than the first-tier cities in the acquisition of knowledge. The report also shows that the book order volume and transaction volume from rural areas both increased by more than 180% year-on-year; among them, the book order volume and book transaction volume growth rate of rural primary and secondary schools exceeded 152%. At the same time, thanks to the smooth flow of the “last mile” of rural logistics and the convenience of mobile payment, there has been “strong convection” of agricultural products entering cities and knowledge to the countryside, and more people are “struggling” to get rich and build beautiful villages. Readers in rural areas love to use fragmented time to read reference books. The report shows that this group of people are particularly fond of tool books. Among them, “Electrician’s Handbook”, “Vegetable Planting Collection”, “New Technology of Sheep Raising”, “Introduction to Car Maintenance” and “Efficient Pig Raising Technology” are among the most popular books. Science and technology, learning and teaching aids, etc. The fastest growth in category sales Paper books are the first choice for many people to read deeply. The 2020 Shanghai National Reading Survey Report shows that “the need for in-depth reading” and “the need for repeated reading” have become the two most important reasons for choosing paper books for reading. The report shows that in 2020, Pinduoduo will sell 100,000+ classic books, a year-on-year increase of 124%. This may be related to the increased reading time of consumers during the epidemic and the clear purpose of reading books. Specific to different types of books, the report shows that the sales of science and technology, learning aids, fiction and literature, and tool encyclopedia books grew the fastest last year. The most popular books on the platform cover four categories: inspirational, teaching aid, children, and poetry. Among them, the top 5 best-selling books after deduplication are “Murphy’s Law”, “Quan Excellent Golden Scroll”, “Three Hundred Tang Poems”, “Bad Habits Please Go Away”, and “365 Night Bedtime Stories”. It is worth noting that “Murphy’s Law” is the most sought after, because the law is not limited to a certain discipline, but describes a phenomenon in life. Specifically, it is related to people “the more they fear, the more they come.” “The experience fits well. This also aroused the user’s curiosity and helped the book top the bestseller list. While consumers love culture, they also love science. The report shows that the sales of science and technology books grew the fastest last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 282%; followed by learning aids, novels and literature, and tool encyclopedias, which increased by more than 202%, 170%, and 155% respectively. At the same time, for more and more young users, the four classics are indispensable. The report also shows that among the literary and fiction book orders, the post-95s and post-00s accounted for over 40%, which has exceeded the proportion of readers born after the 75s. Among them, the four famous novels and literature steadily ranked first in this category, followed by “Red Stars Shining on China”, “Twenty Thousand Miles under the Sea”, “How Steel is Made”, and “The Pickup of Flowers in the Morning” and so on. Classic masterpieces add 10 billion subsidies Minimum 2.5 yuan per book As the first vertical category to be e-commerceed, the e-commerce penetration rate of books has exceeded 60%. Online is undoubtedly an important position for book sales, and the scale of sales continues to expand. Especially under the influence of the epidemic, users’ demand for books has increased. Relevant data shows that in the first quarter of this year, book retail sales increased by more than 30%, which was higher than the growth rate of national merchandise retail sales. The number of online market sales increased by 20.84% ​​year-on-year. It is worth noting that as Amazon China previously stopped selling paper books, the domestic book e-commerce pattern has changed. While players consolidate their positions, they intend to attract users through more diverse gameplay. It is understood that on March 31, Pinduoduo officially launched the “Duoduo Reading Month” large-scale knowledge inclusive action, centered on the concept of “good books at affordable prices for all people”, set up a 50 million reading fund, and strengthened cooperation with authoritative publishing houses and book dealers. . Up to now, more than 2,700 publishing houses, book companies, and channel merchants have entered the platform such as Dangdang, CITIC Publishing House, Knowledge Publishing House, and Motie. From April 15 to April 30, “Duo Duo Reading Month” launched a large-scale tens of billions of subsidy activities. More than a dozen senior editors received the Nobel Prize for Literature, the Hugo Prize, the Mao Dun Prize for Literature, and the best-selling list on the Internet. A list of more than a thousand high-quality books was screened out, and genuine classics were subsidized on the basis of low prices across the entire network. Among them, “Historical Records”, “Wanli Fifteen Years”, “Country China”, “Social Contract Theory”, “A Brief History of Chinese Philosophy”, “Flying Bird Collection” and thousands of genuine good books are listed on the 10 billion subsidy channel. This is 2.5 yuan. The person in charge of “Duo Duo Reading Month” stated that the “Knowledge Inclusive Action” is dedicated to “reading with classics”. The subsidized books are from the Commercial Press, Sanlian Bookstore, People’s Literature Publishing House, CITIC Publishing House, Zhonghua Book Company, etc. Many classic masterpieces. It is understood that users can “buy” books at preferential prices from the reading list compiled on the platform through the Pinduoduo APP’s tens of billions of subsidy channels or search for “Reading Month” and “Duodu Reading Month”. Industry insiders pointed out that this is the largest “knowledge inclusive action” carried out by Pinduoduo to date. “In the past year, the e-commerce penetration rate of the book industry has been close to 60%, but there are still a large number of emerging reading groups that have not been fully satisfied.” , Voucher issuance threshold, no need to compare prices, direct subsidies, in order to further lower the reading threshold, promote the inclusive of knowledge, so that more “book spellers” can truly enjoy the joy of reading. The above-mentioned person in charge also mentioned that in the next step, the platform will continue to increase subsidies for genuine good books, meet consumer demand in various ways, provide diversified support for the introduction of high-quality creators, and work with all parties to promote ” Fair consumption and universal knowledge”. Written by: Southern Metropolis reporter Huang Pei

China Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Yu Na reports from Beijing

On the one hand, the needs of elderly care cannot be met, and on the other hand, the high bed rate of elderly care institutions. How to get the elderly to receive professional care has become a common problem facing the three elderly care models at home, community, and institution.

“The three types of elderly care at home, community, and institutions have not been effectively integrated in China. The main manifestation is that institutional elderly care has encountered a bottleneck, and the vacancy rate is even close to half.” April 20, at the Boao Forum for Asia 2021 annual meeting Last, Luan Xin, deputy mayor of Qingdao, said when discussing the issue of welcoming an aging society.

At present, the global aging trend is irreversible. According to the United Nations’ definition of an aging society, major countries in the world such as China, the United States, Russia, and Japan have entered an aging society, especially Asian countries are accelerating their entry into an aging society.

How to mobilize the enthusiasm of individuals, enterprises and society to establish a sustainable, recyclable, fair and transparent health and old-age security ecosystem in which stakeholders actively participate, and finally realize that the elderly can enjoy a quality life in their old age without increasing young people Burdens and worries?

In this regard, Luan Xin puts forward three suggestions: First, we must coordinate three different elderly care models, that is, home, community, and institutional elderly care should be integrated and coordinated; in addition, the basic elderly care system should be improved and the supply of inclusive elderly care services should be improved. The government must do a good job in all-round services; at the same time, it must pay attention to market-oriented factors and vigorously promote the development of the elderly care industry.

The rate of vacant beds in institutions remains high

For many years, the domestic pension pattern has been “9073” or “9064”, that is, it has advocated that 90% of the elderly care for the elderly at home, 6% or 7% of the elderly care for the elderly in community institutions, and 3% or 4% of the elderly care for the elderly in institutions such as nursing homes. But in fact, the importance of institutional pensions has been highlighted by the industry in the past.

Affected by traditional culture, most elderly people prefer to provide for the elderly in their own homes, relying on the family as the basis and relying on the community to provide for the elderly. In November 2019, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to actively respond to the aging of the population and accelerate the construction of an elderly care service system that is coordinated with home community institutions and combines medical care and health care. The new idea of ​​coordinated development of elderly care in home and community institutions no longer emphasizes a certain form, and is more conducive to the construction of an elderly care service system.

During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, home-based and community-based care has been launched in various areas. It is long-awaited that the elderly at home have certain demands for institutional care and community care. However, at present, home-based and community care is facing the elderly’s ability to pay, the implementation of support policies, and the implementation of support policies. Outstanding issues such as service model innovation.

In March 2021, the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of Long-Term Goals for 2035″ was formally proposed to promote the coordinated development of the elderly care industry and the elderly care industry, improve the basic elderly care service system, and vigorously develop inclusive benefits The type of old-age service supports the family to undertake the old-age care function, and builds an old-age service system that is coordinated with home and community institutions and combines medical care and health care.

It can be seen that the state’s top-level design for the coordinated development of home and community institutions for the elderly has been very clear, but there is a big gap in the actual situation.

Luan Xin said that the current three domestic pension models have not been effectively integrated, but are separated. The main manifestation is that institutional pensions have encountered a bottleneck, and the vacancy rate is generally very high across the country, reaching about 50%.

As of July 2020, data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs show that there are 42,300 old-age care institutions of various types across the country, with 4.291 million beds and 2.146 million elderly people. It can be estimated that the average occupancy rate of elderly care institutions is about 50%.

A survey by Qiao Xiaochun, a demographer and professor at the Population Institute of Peking University, also proved that in Beijing, a first-tier city with a serious aging population, “nearly 20% of the nursing homes have an occupancy rate of less than 20%, and 50% of the nursing homes live in. The rate is less than 50%. There are only 49 elderly care institutions that are really hard to find and have a 100% occupancy rate, accounting for only 10%.”

The low occupancy rate means that elderly care institutions are facing severe survival problems. However, the elderly care institutions under the 2020 epidemic have suffered an unprecedented impact, further increasing the vacancy rate of elderly care service institutions, but operating costs have increased significantly, posing great challenges to the daily operation of elderly care institutions.

“Due to the epidemic situation last year, the profitability of various elderly care institutions has dropped significantly and expenses have increased. In addition, closed management has made it particularly difficult to recruit service personnel, but the market demand for elderly care services is actually still very large.” Luan Xin believes that it must be adequate. Giving full play to the government’s policy and financial leverage, mobilizing the enthusiasm of all sectors of society, cultivating the elderly care service market well, and being able to grow bigger and stronger is also a very important part of the dual cycle.

Policy guidance supports integrated development

There is a nursing home called Humanitas home in the Netherlands. Young college students can live for free, as long as they accompany their “old neighbors” for 30 hours a month. The accompanying content includes chatting with the elderly, watching TV, and teaching the elderly video calls.

Some domestic elderly care institutions, which are deeply troubled by the vacancy rate, even asked whether they can follow the example of the Dutch elderly care institution, but the industry generally believes that such a solution is not suitable for national conditions.

To treat the symptoms as the root cause, Luan Xin believes that it is necessary to speed up the construction of an elderly care service system that coordinates homes, communities, and institutions, so that the advantages of the three models can be integrated and developed. The advantage of home care is that the elderly live in a familiar environment, and it is also very in line with the traditional Chinese thinking; the advantage of institutional care lies in the professionalization and standardization of services; community care is a platform, a connection, and one side Connecting the elderly who have full trust in it, while connecting with various elderly care institutions.

Luan Xin said that the lack of professional participation in home care is actually equivalent to living care; community care due to insufficiency, low service quality, irregular operation mechanism, and there is no way to meet the needs of the elderly in difficulties. Therefore, the above-mentioned series of problems can be solved well only when the advantages of the three models are brought into full play and integrated and developed.

For example, institutions for the elderly can be introduced into the community and provide door-to-door elderly care services, or the community can be used as a platform to integrate the elderly care institutions around the community to provide services for the elderly in the community. Fully mobilize institutions around the community to participate in elderly care services.

In 2020, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee clearly put forward the “National Strategy to Actively Address the Ageing of the Population”, marking that my country’s elderly care services have entered a new stage. It is predicted that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, my country’s population over 60 years old will exceed 300 million, accounting for more than 20%. The number of aging population is very large, and a huge consumer market for elderly care services will be formed, and all parties need to be mobilized. The enthusiasm of participating in it, and actively expanding the elderly care services.

Luan Xin believes that the integration of community institutions and home-based care needs the government’s financial guidance and policy support to expand market involvement and play the role of the market.

Taking Qingdao as an example, there are community elderly care service centers in the urban areas, including rural streets, and community service points have also been established in each community, realizing the full coverage of home and community elderly care in the urban area, combining home care and community care in one. In order to ensure the quality of services and equip with a full set of supervision and supervision systems, the government must do a good job in supervision and supervision, and at the same time introduce third-party institutions with senior care experience through bidding to achieve standardization.

In order to solve the problem of payment for elderly care services for low-income groups, Qingdao has established a rural elderly filial piety fund to purchase socialized elderly care services for the elderly in rural areas, and raise the payment standards for long-term care insurance for the elderly in rural areas, and accommodate rural disabled and demented persons. The operating subsidy standard for the elderly, long-term care insurance not only covers the medical insurance of nursing care insurance, but also covers life care insurance.

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Recently, according to media reports, a person familiar with the situation revealed that Biden will formally propose a tax increase plan next week. This plan proposal is mainly aimed at the wealthy people with an annual income of not less than 1 million yuan. The capital gains tax rate is 39.6%, which is higher than the current rate. The 20% tax rate has nearly doubled, plus the existing 3.8% investment income surcharge, which means that the wealthy may face a capital gains tax of 43.4%.

What is capital gains tax?

Capital gains tax is a kind of temporary tax, which refers to a tax levied on the realized capital gains of taxpayers who are not specialized in the sale of real property and valuable securities.

The capital gains tax increase plan is undoubtedly a great negative for the U.S. stock market. As soon as this news came out, U.S. stocks fell sharply at the opening. The three major stock indexes all closed down about 1%. On the other hand, Bitcoin fell nearly 6%. Once dropped to around $50,000, Bitcoin’s fall is the first time its share of the cryptocurrency market has fallen below 50% in two years.

It is understood that if Biden’s tax increase plan is implemented this time, some capital gains taxes that were originally taxed may exceed 50%. Among them, New York and California will bear the brunt. The Biden administration’s view on the tax increase is to increase Capital gains tax will not have a negative impact.

However, many professionals still believe that Biden’s increase in the capital gains tax rate will stimulate selling. A large number of investors will reduce their positions in order to avoid higher capital gains taxes, leading to a large number of stocks being sold in the stock market. As a result, the value of the stock fell sharply.

Some professional organizations also said that the plan will cause greater turbulence in the market. The increase in capital gains tax will have a greater impact than the increase in corporate tax. Investors’ investment methods may change, and the investment market may experience a significant cooling in the future. .

Although many people think that Biden’s tax increase is not surprising, they did not expect the tax increase to come so fast, and the tax rate increase is so high, which many people did not expect.

Among them, in terms of total GDP, Guangdong is firmly seated as the “biggest Guangdong” with 2.7 trillion yuan; in terms of GDP growth, the GDP growth rate of 22 provinces is both double-digit, and Hubei, which was at the bottom last year, topped the list with a growth rate of 58.3%. . Among them, the GDP growth rate of 7 provinces outperformed the national GDP growth rate.

The GDP data of 22 provinces in the first quarter of 2021.

Total GDP: Guangdong is still the boss

From the perspective of total GDP, Guangdong still holds the top spot without any suspense.

Statistics from the Guangdong Bureau of Statistics show that the GDP of Guangdong in the first quarter of 2021 was 2,711,796 million yuan, an increase of 18.6% year-on-year, and an average growth of 5.2% in two years.

The pattern of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong in the top three in terms of total economic output remains unchanged.

As the second-ranked “Su Daqiang”, the province’s GDP in the first quarter was 2,587,838 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and an average increase of 6.4% in two years.

Guangdong and Jiangsu are the only two provinces with a “2 trillion club” GDP in the first quarter.

Shandong, ranked third, had a total output value of 1805.55 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year, and an average growth rate of 5.4% in two years.

In addition, Henan (1.330665 billion yuan), Sichuan (1,185.924 billion yuan), Fujian (1,075.06 billion yuan), Hunan (1,022.399 billion yuan) in the first quarter GDP in the “1 trillion club.”

On April 7, the “Meet in Spring” anti-epidemic photo exhibition was displayed on Chuhe Han Street in Wuhan to attract citizens to visit.Zhang Changshe

GDP growth rate: Hubei ranks first

From the perspective of GDP growth, Hubei, which has been in a negative growth last year and at the bottom, has counterattacked, ranking first.

Data from the Hubei Bureau of Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2021, the province’s regional GDP was 987.267 billion yuan, an increase of 58.3% over the same period of the previous year.

According to Ye Fusheng, chief statistician of the Hubei Provincial Statistics Bureau, the economy of Hubei Province had a good start in the first quarter of this year, with stable economic recovery and steady improvement. The main economic indicators have achieved substantial growth. The influence of factors such as the increase of working days during the Chinese New Year, on the other hand, is a manifestation of Hubei’s economic recovery and development.

As the province most severely hit by the epidemic last year, Hubei once pressed the pause button, and GDP fell by 39.2%, 19.3%, 10.4%, and 5.0% in the first quarter, first half, first three quarters, and full year of 2020, respectively. Now, it finally ushered in a positive change.

Data map.Drawing by Zhang Jianyuan

The GDP growth rate of 7 provinces outperforms the national growth rate

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product in the first quarter was 24,931 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year at comparable prices.

The national GDP growth rate rebounded to double digits in the first quarter, as did the local level. For the 22 provinces that have released data, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter reached double digits.

Among them, Hubei (58.3%), Hainan (19.8%), Jiangsu (19.2%), Anhui (18.7%), Guangdong (18.6%), Jiangxi (18.4%), Chongqing (18.4%), the GDP growth of 7 provinces Faster than the national GDP growth rate.

Among the 22 provinces, Qinghai (12.8%) and Heilongjiang (12.4%) had a GDP growth rate of less than 15% in the first quarter, Hunan had a GDP growth rate of 15% in the first quarter, and the remaining provinces had a GDP growth rate of higher than 15% in the first quarter.

The scenery of Sanya, Hainan.Photo by Fan Yong

The two-year average growth rate of Hainan temporarily ranks first

It is worth noting that among the 22 provinces, except for Hubei, all the other provinces have announced the two-year average GDP growth rate. The two-year average growth rate refers to the growth rate calculated using the geometric average method based on the corresponding period in 2019.

From the two-year average GDP growth rate, Hainan temporarily ranks first. According to statistics from the Hainan Bureau of Statistics, the province’s GDP in the first quarter was 139.599 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% at constant prices (down 4.5% in the first quarter of the previous year); an increase of 14.4% over the same period in 2019, an average increase of 7.0 in two years %.

Wang Yu, deputy director of the Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that due to the low base affected by the epidemic in 2020, it can objectively reflect economic recovery and actual development after deducting the base impact. From the two-year average growth rate, the regional GDP is better than The country’s total investment in fixed assets was 2.0 percentage points better than the country’s by 5.9 percentage points, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.1 percentage points better than the country’s.

Obviously, under the support of a series of favorable policies in the Hainan Free Trade Port, Hainan’s economy is taking off.

(Originally titled “First quarter GDP of 22 provinces: Hubei has the first growth rate, 7 provinces outperformed the whole country”)

(This article is from The Paper. For more original information, please download the “The Paper” APP)

1. Why can the RMB regain the 6.5 mark again?

At present, after the CNY regained the 6.5 mark again, there is a certain degree of suppression at the 60-day moving average on the technical level, that is, short-term or strong shocks below 6.4982. We disassemble the fluctuations of CNY for internal and external reasons. The difference between the closing price of the day and the midpoint of the day is regarded as the part of the day trading, and the difference between the midpoint of the day and the closing price of the previous day is regarded as the external shock. The fluctuation of CNY from the past week In terms of factors, the appreciation of the onshore renminbi is mainly caused by external shocks, and considering that the recent dollar index is highly synchronized with onshore and offshore renminbi exchange rates, we believe that the breaking down of the dollar index is a direct result of the recent renminbi’s regaining the 6.5 mark. drive.

Figure 1: From the perspective of internal and external factors, the fluctuation of CNY is mainly due to the fall of the US dollar index (as of April 21)

Source: iFinD South China Research

In fact, relative to the dollar index and the rise and fall of most non-US currencies, the recent appreciation of the renminbi is actually relatively restrained. Since the U.S. dollar index peaked at 93.2860 on March 31, the U.S. dollar index has fallen back by 1.91%. At the same time, most non-U.S. currencies have appreciated against the U.S. dollar. As of April 21, the onshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated by 1.20. %, the appreciation of non-US currencies such as the euro and the yen against the US dollar was 2.17% and 2.29%, respectively. It can be seen that the recent increase in the renminbi has been relatively small. We believe that there may be two reasons for this: 1. We have observed a slight increase in the degree of tension in Sino-US relations since the beginning of April, which may have restricted the recent appreciation of the renminbi. 2. In addition, since the closing of the foreign exchange purchase window in the first quarter, the recent strong performance of the RMB exchange rate may lead to an increase in short-term foreign exchange purchase demand by importing companies, which in turn suppressed the appreciation of the RMB.

Figure 2: The appreciation and devaluation of major international currencies in April (as of April 21)

Source: iFinD South China Research

1. How to understand the continuous decline of the U.S. dollar index since the beginning of April?

   This wave of decline in the U.S. dollar index began at the end of March and early April. This point in time also corresponds to the recent peak and fall of U.S. Treasury yields, and we believe that the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is the primary reason for the continuous decline of the U.S. dollar index since early April. the reason.

   First, the nominal and real interest rates of U.S. bonds fell simultaneously, and the difference between U.S. and German bond yields fell rapidly. At the beginning of April, the U.S. Treasury yield fell from a high of 1.75% for the second time. As of April 21, the U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 1.6%. At the same time, the actual yield based on inflation has also begun to fluctuate lower, that is, nominal. Interest rates and real interest rates have both fallen. Although inflation expectations are still fluctuating above the 70% quantile, which is similar to the level at the end of March, both nominal and real interest rates have fluctuated and fell, and the market’s response to inflation expectations is no longer as good. As anxious at the end of March. Observing the fluctuations in the yields of 10-year Treasury bonds in various countries since April, the yields of 10-year U.S. Treasuries have fallen by 15bps since April. In comparison, with the exception of the United Kingdom, major European economies such as France and Germany have fallen for 10 years. U.S. bond yields are still showing a continuing upward trend. The current US-German spread has significantly declined compared with the end of March, and is basically close to the level of early March.

   Figure 3: Since April, the difference between the US and major non-US Treasury bond yields has dropped significantly (as of April 21)

   

   Source: iFinD South China Research

   The decline in U.S. bond interest rates is mainly due to the expected reversal of global capital markets, and has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the U.S. economy. From the retail, CPI, and employment data released by the United States last week, various economic data exceeded expectations, and the tone of the U.S. economy continued to improve temporarily. Therefore, the decline in U.S. bond interest rates is only short-lived. We believe that the decline in U.S. Treasury interest rates is mainly due to the decline in market panic over the reduction of easing policies following the rise of new confirmed cases worldwide. The basic logic behind this lies in the fact that the uncertainty of the global epidemic has increased — the need for easing monetary policies to continue to stimulate the economy still remains — policy reductions and panic decline — demand for U.S. debt allocation is improving — U.S. interest rates have fallen. According to the latest 20-year U.S. Treasury auctions announced by the U.S. Treasury Department on April 21, the demand for U.S. debt allocation has indeed rebounded again since April, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields.

   Table 1: The latest U.S. Treasury auction shows rising demand for U.S. debt allocation

   

   Data source: South China Research of the U.S. Department of the Treasury

   Secondly, in addition to the fall in U.S. bond yields, the improvement of the epidemic in Europe and the acceleration of vaccine progress are also reasons for the decline in the US dollar index. We know that there is a strong correlation between the gap in newly diagnosed cases in the United States and Europe and the US dollar index, and the bottom out of the gap in newly diagnosed cases in the United States and Europe and the recent rebound of the euro against the dollar also started at the end of March. Since the Eurozone implemented the epidemic lockdown measures on March 18, judging from the new confirmed cases, the new cases in Europe have been well controlled. Except for France, the new confirmed cases in Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries have dropped, and recently The distribution of vaccines in Europe has also begun to accelerate, which supported the euro and caused pressure on the dollar index.

   Figure 4: Newly diagnosed cases around the world are on the rise again, and epidemic control in Europe has improved (unit: person)

   

   Source: iFinD South China Research

   Furthermore, short-term dollar liquidity is relatively abundant under the dovish statement of the Federal Reserve. Judging from the dovish statements made by Fed Chairman Powell last week, he mentioned that he will wait until the inflation rate continues to reach 2% and the labor market fully recovers before considering raising interest rates. These two conditions are unlikely to be met by the end of 2022. Powell reiterated to allow inflation to be higher than 2% for a period of time. In addition, Powell did not mention the recent QE reduction roadmap mentioned by Fed officials, but pointed out that the time for the reduction may be much earlier than the interest rate hike. In fact, although this statement only conveys a basic concept, it has greatly eased the market’s expectations of shrinking. This statement made the market believe that the Fed will indeed remain accommodative in the short term, and that the time gap between reducing debt purchases and raising interest rates may be larger than market expectations. The current market expects that the Fed will formally discuss the reduction in July, or at the earliest in May and June, and the actual implementation of the reduction may not be until the end of the year. The U.S. Treasury Department has stated that it will halve the balance of its huge so-called Treasury General Account (TGA) by April and reduce it to 500 billion U.S. dollars by the end of June. Judging from the latest trends in the Fed’s balance sheet, the TGA account Indeed, it has fallen rapidly in the near future, which means that the financial market has injected a lot of liquidity in the short term. Therefore, the short-term U.S. dollar index has undergone a certain correction when the U.S. dollar liquidity is abundant, and the possibility of a large-scale rebound before policy expectations shifts is low.

   Figure 5: Quick release of TGA account balance of the US Department of the Treasury (unit: millions of dollars)

   

   Source: South China Research on the Federal Reserve’s official website

2. How will the RMB exchange rate go in the future?

   From the current point of view, since the US dollar index fell below 91, the downward movement seems to have slowed down, and the renminbi has moved strongly, rising above 6.49 after regaining the 6.5 mark. In the short term, before the U.S. is guided by shrinking expectations or the global capital market is expected to shift, it is expected that the US dollar index will not be able to get out of a large-scale rebound, and the renminbi will also likely follow the US dollar index in the current central two-way fluctuations. However, in the medium and long term, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise as the U.S. economy continues to improve. The current corrections in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields are only temporary. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the Fed’s tightening expectations or the medium-term renminbi. Cause a certain depreciation pressure.

   Author: Ma Yan Nanhua Futures Institute

   Investment consulting qualification certificate number Z0012651

   (Editor in charge: Chen Zhuang)

   [Disclaimer]This article only represents the views of the co-contributor, not the position of Hexun.com. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.

Demand for recruitment in the wholesale and retail industries is strong, and job searches in the culture, sports and entertainment industries have increased by more than 112% month-on-month

According to data from 58 City Recruitment Research Institute, in March this year, Chengdu’s recruitment demand ranked second in the country, second only to Dongguan, with an increase of 51.43% from the previous month; job search demand ranked fifth in the country, ranking in Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Chongqing After that, the chain increased by 63.79%. In the first quarter of this year, Sichuan’s GDP exceeded 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.8% year-on-year. As the capital city of Sichuan, Chengdu’s rapid economic growth has driven employment development, especially providing a wealth of recruitment positions and attracting talents. Rong employment.

From an industry perspective, in March this year, the top three industries in Chengdu for recruitment demand were wholesale and retail, information transmission, software and information technology services, transportation, warehousing and postal services. Since the wholesale and retail industry is closely related to national production and life, public data shows that the industry’s contribution to the national GDP in 2018 reached 9%, and it has continued to grow. Therefore, this industry has created more jobs and produced more jobs. Big recruitment demand. After experiencing the special environment of 2020, many companies have accelerated their digital transformation, and short video, live broadcast and other industries have also developed rapidly. Therefore, the demand for new infrastructure services has been increased, and the software and information technology service industries have generated more job needs. At the same time, the huge online purchasing and consumer market also provides large-scale jobs, making the transportation, warehousing and postal industry recruitment demand among the forefront.

1. The data of the Recruitment Research Institute in the same city also shows that the top three industries in Chengdu for job demand are wholesale and retail, information transmission, software and information technology services, and accommodation and catering. As Chengdu is a famous cultural and tourist city, it has many job opportunities in the accommodation and catering industry, relatively high income levels, and broad development space, so it attracts a large number of job seekers.

   Compared with February, the cultural, sports and entertainment industries in Chengdu performed outstandingly. Among them, the demand for recruitment increased by 129.64% month-on-month, and the demand for job hunting increased by 112.6% month-on-month. In recent years, Chengdu has built a cultural and creative center, built more than 60 cultural and creative industrial parks, and issued “Tianfu Cultural Assets Loan” to support the development of cultural and creative enterprises, which has stimulated the growth of employment demand. The substantial increase in the month-on-month recruitment and job hunting in the cultural, sports and entertainment industries in Chengdu also shows that the industry’s vitality has recovered rapidly after the Spring Festival, and the demand for job hunting has shown a strong trend.

   Service industry recruitment demand is booming, general worker recruitment and job hunting supply and demand are both high

2. City Recruitment Research Institute also conducted a statistical analysis of the job-hunting situation in Chengdu from the position dimension. In March this year, the top ten positions in Chengdu for recruitment demand were general workers, operators, packers, assemblers, waiters, apprentices, food delivery staff, security guards, couriers, and sales representatives. This reflects the high demand for manufacturing jobs in Chengdu, and various types of manufacturing jobs rank high in demand for recruitment.

From the perspective of job search, the top 10 jobs in Chengdu are general workers, freight drivers, shop assistants/salesmen, clerks, business drivers, waiters, security guards, sales representatives, chefs/cooks, and cashiers. It can be seen that general workers rank first in job search supply, which is consistent with recruitment needs, but other positions such as freight drivers, shop assistants/sales staff, clerks, business drivers, etc. have a large job search demand, but the job supply is relatively low, and the job demand is not complete. Adapt.

In March of this year, the demand for clerk/sales staff recruitment increased by 111.46% from the previous month, and the demand for security and waiter recruitment also increased by more than 55% from the previous month. With the resumption of work and production after the holiday, the demand for recruitment of service positions such as security guards and waiters has increased significantly. In terms of the month-on-month increase in job search demand, the demand for cashiers ranked first with a month-on-month increase of 139.11%. The growth rates of waiters, front desk/switchboard/reception, and clerk/sales all exceeded 110%. This means that after the Spring Festival, the number of job seekers entering the service industry has risen sharply.

In terms of salary, data from 58 City Recruitment Research Institute show that in March this year, Chengdu paid a monthly salary of 8,717 yuan, ranking eighth in the country. Among the top five positions in Chengdu for recruitment demand, the assembler paid the first place, reaching 8,102 yuan, and the waiter paid a monthly salary of 6,869 yuan, a higher quarter-on-quarter increase, reaching 6.22%. Compared with other types of work, assembly workers have a higher technical content and require employees to have a certain degree of manufacturing experience, so the income level is higher. At the same time, in response to the increase in demand for service jobs after the Spring Festival, many companies have increased salaries to attract talents.

Among the top five jobs in Chengdu with job requirements, the expected salary of freight drivers ranks first, reaching 7927 yuan, which is higher than the average expected monthly salary of 7425 yuan in Chengdu. Freight drivers, as people who drive freight vehicles, transport goods and provide services, need to be accompanied by roads and cars as their homes for a long time, and expect relatively high salaries. Followed by business drivers and general workers, the expected salaries are 7915 yuan and 6,340 yuan respectively, and the expected salaries of clerks, shop assistants/sales staff are also more than 5000 yuan. This shows that the expected monthly salary of a job is closely related to its work intensity and technical requirements.

As a leader in the recruitment industry, 58.com not only relies on the advantages of big data, releases urban employment data, reflects recruitment and job search dynamics, and helps job seekers choose their industries and occupations rationally. It also organizes a series of online recruitment activities to choose ideal employers for job seekers. provide assurance. With 58.com’s high-quality and efficient recruitment services, the majority of job seekers will have a better job search experience in 2021, one step closer to their career dreams.

Produced | Sohu Technology

Author | Zhang Yating

Edit | Yang Jin

Huawei, which has always been prudent and prudent, has recently made intensive adjustments to its cloud business, which has aroused heated discussions in the outside world. On April 9, Huawei announced the appointment of Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun as Chairman of Huawei Cloud, and Huawei Consumer BG CEO Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO.

A week ago, on April 2, Huawei announced the abolition of Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) BG. On March 30, Huawei just appointed 11 members including Zhang Pingan (formerly President of Consumer Business Cloud Services) as Cloud&AI BG managers; Zhang Pingan was appointed as Cloud BU President.

At this point, the structural adjustment of the cloud business has come to an end in the turmoil. The latest Xu Zhijun + Yu Chengdong, the luxurious lineup of two generations of Huawei’s Titans, also made the speculation that “Huawei Cloud will develop independently or be sold” spread like wildfire. Some insiders bluntly said that “this is the management configuration of a listed company.”

At the Huawei Analyst Conference on April 12, Xu Zhijun gave a formal response to related hot topics. He pointed out that the abolition of cloud and computing BG is to focus on developing cloud business, increase the proportion of software service revenue, and reduce dependence on hardware.

As we all know, Huawei started by making communication equipment, and hardware revenue has always been the main driver. In recent years, the revenue of consumer business, which is dominated by mobile phones, has supported about 50% of its revenue. However, the blow of the ban made Huawei have to think about how to go on leaving the chip?

The cloud business is regarded by Huawei as a key “chess piece” for increasing software revenue. Guowei, the chief product official of Huawei Cloud, told Sohu Technology that this year’s cloud business will definitely continue to grow in three digits. On the one hand, Huawei attaches great importance to the cloud business, and customer demand is also great. According to official disclosures, Huawei Cloud will grow by 168% in 2020.

It should be noted that even if the cloud and computing BG has been withdrawn, the current cloud and computing entire sales and channel system remains consistent. Shi Jilin, President of Huawei Cloud and Computing Global Marketing and Sales Service Department, told media including Sohu Technology, “The future sales and channel system will be optimized and adjusted accordingly as business development needs.”

“The shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience”

Compared with mainstream cloud vendors, Huawei Cloud is almost 10 years behind. Amazon AWS cloud computing service was commercialized in 2006, Alibaba Cloud was formally established in 2009, Tencent Cloud was commercialized in 13 years, and Huawei only established Cloud BU in 17 years and officially entered the public cloud.

“It is necessary to make up for shortcomings but also to find ways to surpass other manufacturers.” Fang Guowei told Sohu Technology that the biggest challenge for Huawei’s cloud business is that the business started relatively late. .

He pointed out that it took Huawei almost four years to go through the product development process of other manufacturers for about ten years. “We started to do public cloud in 17 years and developed more than 200 products in almost four years. The number of products is about the same as that of other vendors.”

The speed of HUAWEI CLOUD’s development should not be underestimated. According to Canalys’s Q4 China Cloud Service Market Report last year, Alibaba Cloud occupies an absolute leading position with a 40% share, Huawei Cloud ranks second with a 17% market share, and Tencent ranks third with a 15% share.

Dai Mingzhe, an analyst at Head Leopard Research Institute, told Sohu Technology that because of its first-mover advantage, Alibaba Cloud has always maintained the first place in market share. However, HUAWEI CLOUD is catching up with its accumulation in the ICT field and the precipitation of the government and enterprise markets, and is constantly shortening the gap with the leading manufacturers in the market.

Of course, in the pursuit of rapid development, Huawei Cloud also needs to make up for its shortcomings. “We are a traditional hardware-advanced company. There are no examples in the world of transforming into a software-advanced company. Our difficulties are imaginable.” Ren Zhengfei realized that changing from selling products to selling cloud services requires building cloud services. The ability and support to provide customers with the operation, operation and maintenance capabilities of cloud services.

A business manager of a domestic leading cloud vendor told Sohu Technology that Huawei Cloud’s long-tail customers have relatively weak operating capabilities. “Customers who consume hundreds of thousands a month in the order of magnitude, either look at the brand or buy the cheap ones. Huawei Cloud is a bit embarrassed in the middle. And the stability and performance of its products still need to be polished.”

Fang Guowei also bluntly told Sohu Technology that the shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience to make the product more usable. Previously, it was more to quickly complement the functions, but there is still a lack of user experience. This year, it will be promoted as a focus.

“For example, in terms of product design, interaction design will strive to be more user-friendly; in terms of documentation, I hope that customers will understand how to operate immediately after reading the documentation, because a very important point in the cloud is self service.”

Relieve the pain of lack of core

Undoubtedly, sending two generals, Xu Zhijun and Yu Chengdong, can see how much Huawei attaches importance to the cloud business. Of course, frequent architectural shocks can also reveal Huawei’s entanglement in exploring cloud services.

At the beginning of 2020, Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) rose to Huawei’s fourth largest BG, Hou Jinlong served as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Peng Zhongyang as the president of Enterprise BG.

In January of this year, Huawei internally issued a document stating that consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong will concurrently serve as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Hou Jinlong, former president of Cloud and Computing BG, intends to appoint the chairman of Digital Energy. At that time, a Huawei insider revealed to Sohu Technology that “the development progress of the cloud business is average, and the slogans are more powerful. I hope Mr. Yu’s leadership can change the current state.”

On April 2, Huawei adjusted its cloud business again, appointing Zhang Pingan as the president of Cloud BU, and at the same time withdrew the cloud and computing BG, and the original server and storage were classified as “network products and solutions.”

About a week later, Huawei Cloud ushered in new personnel appointments again. Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun was appointed as Huawei Cloud Chairman, Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO, and Cloud BU added two deputy directors, Peng Zhongyang and Tao Jingwen in charge of corporate business. And process IT.

From the establishment of Cloud and Computing BG to the dismantling of Cloud and Computing BG, Cloud BU has once again returned to an independent state. Xu Zhijun said to the relevant changes that Huawei Cloud has always been an end-to-end independent BU. At the beginning of the establishment of HUAWEI CLOUD, it was hoped to coordinate the operation of servers and storage with HUAWEI CLOUD, but the collaborative operation was found to consume the energy of the cloud team.

He pointed out that the adjustments made now are to hope that the cloud business will be more independent and focus on developing cloud. At the same time, in the long run, we hope to increase the proportion of software service revenue.

Under the influence of the US ban, Huawei is also actively thinking about future business development issues. How does the future go? Xu Zhijun put forward five key strategic measures in the future, and the first one is to optimize the industrial mix and enhance the resilience of the industry, especially the enhancement of software capabilities, the strengthening of investment in advanced technology and weak-related industries and the investment in the smart auto parts industry.

Dai Mingzhe told Sohu Technology that under the ban, the chip industry chain will have a certain impact. However, Huawei’s cloud business will focus on software development in the future, and it is expected that this impact will be mitigated to a certain extent.

Can the cloud business become the next “cash cow”?

The cloud market still has development potential. Gartner data shows that as of 2019, the global cloud computing market reached US$188.3 billion, and it is expected that the market size will reach US$350 billion in 2023. According to the “2020 Cloud Computing Development White Paper” issued by the Institute of Information and Communications Technology, China’s cloud computing market is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next four years.

At the same time, the cloud business has brought huge returns to the top manufacturers. According to the 2020 earnings report, AWS cloud services contributed 11.7% of revenue and 59% of profits for Amazon. According to Microsoft’s financial report, since the Q3 quarter of fiscal year 2020, revenue from the smart cloud business has become Microsoft’s largest source of revenue for three consecutive quarters.

Of course, before the cloud business brought huge returns, it was also a terrible “golden beast”. Only after a huge investment can manufacturers “lie down and make money.” From the official commercial use of Amazon AWS in 2006 to 2015, it took nearly 10 years to turn around. year. Alibaba Cloud was founded in 2009, but it achieved breakeven for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it took about 11 years from a huge loss to a balance.

Gu Fan, general manager of cloud service product management for AWS Greater China, once said that it took nearly 10 years for AWS to achieve its first $10 billion in revenue from scratch, and it took 23 months for the second $10 billion increase. The third $10 billion increase took 13 months.

Huawei hopes to avoid excessive capital investment and emphasizes the construction of application ecology. Ren Zhengfei pointed out in his internal letter at the end of last year, “We can’t simply take the same path as Ali and Amazon. We don’t have that much money. They have endless amounts of money in the US stock market. How do we develop, we must find a way out. , Rather than simply imitating.”

In China, BAT Internet vendors, three major operators, Huawei Cloud, Kingsoft Cloud and other vendors gathered in the cloud computing track. A cloud computing-related practitioner told Sohu Technology that compared with other vendors, Huawei’s advantages lie in sales capabilities, key customer relationships, hardware coordination capabilities, and a top-to-bottom ecosystem.

Through the growth process of Amazon and Alibaba, we can see that cloud is not a “quick money” business. From its exposure to cloud computing in 2011, to its formal entry into the public cloud in 2017, and to the further improvement of its strategic position today, Huawei has not disclosed the revenue of its cloud business to the public.

It is foreseeable that Huawei Cloud still has a long way to go in the process of increasing software revenue and optimizing the industry mix.

The scene of the press conference.Guoxin Network Map

What factors contributed to the 18.3% rapid growth of GDP in the first quarter?

On April 16, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2021, Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the General Statistics Department of the National Economy, responded because of the low base in the same period last year and the local Chinese New Year. As a result of the increase in working days, the year-on-year growth rate this year has shown a different trend from previous years. Judging from the year-on-year situation, due to the gradual recovery of market demand, the low base of the previous year, and the on-site Chinese New Year, the main indicators have shown double-digit growth.

Liu Aihua said that in the first quarter of this year, in the face of the winter and spring epidemic test and the uncertainty of the external environment, the results of the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development have been consolidated and expanded. On the whole, my country’s economy has continued to recover steadily, with a good start.

The characteristics are mainly reflected in five aspects: First, the production demand continues to improve. Because of the low base in the same period last year and the increase in working days caused by the local Chinese New Year, the year-on-year growth rate this year showed a different trend from previous years. Judging from the year-on-year situation, due to the gradual recovery of market demand, the low base of the previous year, and the on-site Chinese New Year, the main indicators have shown double-digit growth. In the first quarter, the gross domestic product increased by 18.3% year-on-year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 24.5%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 33.9% year-on-year, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 25.6%, and total imports and exports of goods increased by 29.2%. . The year-on-year growth rate of these indicators is double-digit.

From the quarter-on-quarter perspective, the main indicators continued to grow. In the first quarter, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.01% from the fourth quarter of the previous year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.86% from the previous quarter, and the fixed asset investment increased by 2.06% from the previous quarter. From the two-year average growth rate, in the first quarter, GDP grew by 5% in two years on average, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 6.8% on average in two years, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.2% on average in two years, and investment in fixed assets for two years. The average growth rate was 2.9%, and the two-year average growth rate of total imports and exports of goods was also close to 10%. Liu Aihua said that based on these indicators, the overall economy is in a stable recovery state.

Second, employment prices are generally stable. In the first quarter, the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns across the country averaged 5.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, it was 5.3% in March, down 0.6% year-on-year. In the first quarter, 2.97 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, fulfilling 27% of the annual target and tasks. From the perspective of prices, consumer prices in the first quarter remained flat year-on-year. In March, the decline of 0.2% in the previous month turned to an increase of 0.4%, indicating a relatively moderate increase.

Third, the rapid growth of new kinetic energy. In the first quarter, the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 31.2% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 12.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 39.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 9.7%. These two growth rates are faster than the overall growth rate of all industries above designated size. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 37.3% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 9.9% in two years, which was 7 percentage points faster than total investment. The output of smart low-carbon products has grown rapidly. In the first quarter, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and microcomputer equipment increased by 3.1 times, 1.1 times, and 73.6% respectively year-on-year, and the average growth rate for the two years exceeded double digits. New business formats and new models continue to emerge. New models such as live streaming, online diagnosis and treatment, and remote office are developing well, and online and offline integration is speeding up. The online retail sales of physical goods in the first quarter increased by 25.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average increased by 15.4%, accounting for 21.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

Fourth, the quality and efficiency have been steadily improved. First look at corporate profits. From January to February, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.79 times year-on-year, an average increase of 31.2% in two years; service enterprises above designated size turned losses into profits, achieving a total profit of 169 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year. in loss. Residents’ income continued to increase. In the first quarter, the national per capita disposable income increased by 13.7% year-on-year in real terms, with an average growth rate of 4.5% in two years; rural residents’ income grew faster than urban residents. Energy consumption per unit of GDP continued to decline. According to preliminary calculations, energy consumption per unit of GDP in the first quarter fell by 3.1% year-on-year.

Fifth, market expectations are stable and improving. In March, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the boom range for 13 consecutive months; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 56.3%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 55.3%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points.

Liu Aihua said that the economic recovery in the first quarter of this year continued, and positive factors were accumulating. At the same time, we must also see that the international epidemic is still spreading, the international environment is still complex and severe, the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not yet solid, and some service industries and small and micro enterprises are still facing more difficulties in their production and operation. “We still have to continue to follow the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference and the government work report to further increase the relief of enterprises, maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, and promote economic stability and recovery.”

(This article is from The Paper. For more original information, please download the “The Paper” APP)

Among them, Erdaobaihe Town, located at the foot of Changbai Mountain, has taught me unforgettable. It is known as one of the 20 must-visit towns in the world and one of the most characteristic towns in China. It is not only because of the beauty of its natural scenery, but also because of the “cleanness” of the town. This is probably the cleanest tourist town I have ever seen. Unlike any tourist town, Erdaobaihe Town is “submerged” in the virgin forest. The town has a population of about 50,000 (2017) and the forest coverage rate is over 94%. People living here seem to be in a secret world. The town is very quiet, the roads are clean and tidy, the air is fresh and pleasant, and there are no traffic lights (when I go in 2019). Here, there are no rushing figures, no passing cars, no crowds of tourists, and no hustle and bustle of business atmosphere. Everything is so clean and tidy. The impression of the Northeast is completely changed because of this small town. Coming here during the May Day holiday is really far away from the crowds and enjoy a moment of tranquility in the world and soul. Erdaobaihe Town is named after the Erdaobai River flowing down the Changbai Mountains winding through the town. It is located on the northern slope of Changbai Mountain, 34 kilometers away from Changbai Mountain. It is located at the “source of three rivers” (Songhua River, Tumen River, Yalu River), and 8 large and small rivers flow through here. The most beautiful one is Erdaobai River, which runs through the entire town, creating a landscape surrounded by forest and flowing water. Usually, tourists who go to Changbai Mountain to see Tianchi basically eat and stay here. In addition to its good green environment, it also has a good environment for eating and living. It is worth mentioning that you must not miss the barbecue (the northeast barbecue is very good, and I am very impressed by the barbecue when I go to several places). Try it. The town is quiet and peaceful, free from traffic, no traffic lights, and no haze. The happiness index is extremely high. In this world “submerged” by nature, it is especially suitable for a daze. It has the reputation of “Hometown of White Birch” and “Hometown of Beauty Pine”. It is a tourist attraction with the reputation of “Sacred Mountain, Holy Water, Wonderful Forest, Fairy Fruit”. The reflection of the forest everywhere makes Erdaobaihe Town as beautiful as an oil painting. The locals can see the four seasons on their windowsill, which is really enviable. When I wandered the streets and alleys of the town, I was almost intoxicated. In addition to being quiet, it is also very clean. The cleanliness reminds me of some tourist towns abroad. The most beautiful time in Erdaobaihe Town is in autumn, but its spring and summer are certainly not bad (it was autumn when I went). Since the forest coverage rate of the town is as high as 94%, people can enjoy the tranquility of the primitive forest as long as they walk into the town. At the same time, the clean and refreshing environment is comfortable for the body and mind and has a powerful “pulmonary washing” function. In the autumn of Erdaobaihe Town, the sky is unimaginably blue. The yellow or red leaves are eye-catching, and the roadside is full of small flowers. Among them, the purple chrysanthemum is my favorite. It is the flowers of autumn and the colors of autumn. It embellishes Erdaobaihe Town very beautifully. When I saw it, I couldn’t help thinking that the Northeast, which was once developed by heavy industry, is not only not so stiff, but also full of softness that southerners have never noticed. This is very similar to a Dalian girl I know. Although I am from the Northeast, my softness and loveliness makes me feel good. There is a large area of ​​beauty pine in the center of the town. It is reported that even if transplanted in other places, it cannot survive. It is called a miracle. I recommend everyone to go to the beautiful pine covered bridge (openwork + glass covered bridge) in the town, which not only overlooks the town, but also can see a large forest landscape. Although this is a small town that thrives on Changbai Mountain tourism, it is actually strong. Pumice is rich in reserves and is mainly used for garment processing and construction materials. A large amount of pumice is exported to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Southeast Asia every year. At the same time, water is also the treasure here. In the early years, the Changbai Mountain mineral water brand named “Baishan Shengshui” was here. It is reported that due to the very good environment here, the content of negative oxygen ions reaches 90,000 per cubic meter, making many southern tourists come here to buy houses. In the fall of 2019, when I came here, I couldn’t help but wonder and yearn for it. At that time, the house price here was 6,000 per square meter, but now it is estimated that it has risen a lot.

Produced | Sohu Technology

Author | Zhang Yating

Edit | Yang Jin

Huawei, which has always been prudent and prudent, has recently made intensive adjustments to its cloud business, which has aroused heated discussions from outsiders. On April 9, Huawei announced the appointment of Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun as Chairman of Huawei Cloud, and Huawei Consumer BG CEO Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO.

A week ago, on April 2, Huawei announced the abolition of Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) BG. On March 30, Huawei just appointed 11 members including Zhang Pingan (formerly President of Consumer Business Cloud Services) as Cloud&AI BG managers; Zhang Pingan was appointed as Cloud BU President.

At this point, the structural adjustment of the cloud business has come to an end in the turmoil. The latest Xu Zhijun + Yu Chengdong, the luxurious lineup of two generations of Huawei’s Titans, also made the speculation that “Huawei Cloud will develop independently or be sold” spread like wildfire. Some insiders bluntly said that “this is the management configuration of a listed company.”

At the Huawei Analyst Conference on April 12, Xu Zhijun gave a formal response to related hot topics. He pointed out that the abolition of cloud and computing BG is to focus on developing cloud business, increase the proportion of software service revenue, and reduce dependence on hardware.

As we all know, Huawei started by making communication equipment, and hardware revenue has always been the main driver. In recent years, the revenue of consumer business, which is dominated by mobile phones, has supported about 50% of its revenue. However, the blow of the ban made Huawei have to think about how to go on leaving the chip?

The cloud business is regarded by Huawei as a key “chess piece” for increasing software revenue.Guowei, the chief product official of Huawei Cloud, told Sohu Technology that this year’s cloud business is definitely still growing in three digits. On the one hand, Huawei attaches great importance to the cloud business, and customer demand is also great. According to official disclosures, Huawei Cloud will grow by 168% in 2020.

It should be noted that even if the cloud and computing BG has been withdrawn, the current cloud and computing entire sales and channel system remains consistent. Shi Jilin, President of Huawei Cloud and Computing Global Marketing and Sales Service Department, told media including Sohu Technology, “The future sales and channel system will be optimized and adjusted accordingly as business development needs.”

“The shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience”

Compared with mainstream cloud vendors, Huawei Cloud is almost 10 years behind. Amazon AWS cloud computing service was commercialized in 2006, Alibaba Cloud was formally established in 2009, Tencent Cloud was commercialized in 13 years, and Huawei only established Cloud BU in 17 years and officially entered the public cloud.

“It is necessary to make up for shortcomings but also to find ways to surpass other manufacturers.”Fang Guowei told Sohu Technology that the biggest challenge for Huawei’s cloud business is that the business started relatively late..

He pointed out that it took Huawei almost four years to go through the product development process of other manufacturers for about ten years. “We started to do public cloud in 17 years and developed more than 200 products in almost four years. The number of products is about the same as that of other vendors.”

The speed of HUAWEI CLOUD’s development should not be underestimated. According to Canalys’ Q4 China Cloud Service Market Report last year, Alibaba Cloud occupies an absolute leading position with a 40% share, Huawei Cloud ranks second with a 17% market share, and Tencent ranks third with a 15% share.

Dai Mingzhe, an analyst at Head Leopard Research Institute, told Sohu Technology that because of its first-mover advantage, Alibaba Cloud has always maintained the first place in market share. However, HUAWEI CLOUD is catching up with its accumulation in the ICT field and the precipitation of the government and enterprise markets, and is constantly shortening the gap with the leading manufacturers in the market.

Of course, in the pursuit of rapid development, Huawei Cloud also needs to make up for its shortcomings. “We are a traditional hardware-advanced company. There are no examples in the world of transforming into a software-advanced company. Our difficulties are imaginable.” Ren Zhengfei realized that changing from selling products to selling cloud services requires building cloud services. The ability and support to provide customers with the operation, operation and maintenance capabilities of cloud services.

A business manager of a domestic leading cloud vendor told Sohu Technology that Huawei Cloud’s long-tail customers have relatively weak operating capabilities. “Customers who consume hundreds of thousands a month in the order of magnitude, either look at the brand or buy the cheap ones. Huawei Cloud is a bit embarrassed in the middle. And the stability and performance of its products still need to be polished.”

Fang Guowei also bluntly told Sohu Technology that the shortcoming that needs to be made up most is the user experience to make the product more usable. Previously, it was more to quickly complement the functions, but there is still a lack of user experience. This year, it will be promoted as a focus.

“For example, in terms of product design, interaction design will strive to be more user-friendly; in terms of documentation, I hope that customers will understand how to operate immediately after reading the documentation, because a very important point in the cloud is self service.”

Relieve the pain of lack of core

Undoubtedly, sending two generals, Xu Zhijun and Yu Chengdong, can see how much Huawei attaches importance to the cloud business. Of course, frequent architectural shocks can also reveal Huawei’s entanglement in exploring cloud services.

At the beginning of 2020, Cloud&AI (cloud and computing) rose to Huawei’s fourth largest BG, Hou Jinlong served as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Peng Zhongyang as the president of Enterprise BG.

In January of this year, Huawei internally issued a document stating that consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong will concurrently serve as the president of Cloud and Computing BG, and Hou Jinlong, former president of Cloud and Computing BG, intends to appoint the chairman of Digital Energy. At that time, a Huawei insider revealed to Sohu Technology that “the development progress of the cloud business is average, and the slogans are more powerful. I hope Mr. Yu’s leadership can change the current state.”

On April 2, Huawei adjusted its cloud business again, appointing Zhang Pingan as the president of Cloud BU, and at the same time withdrew the cloud and computing BG, and the original server and storage were classified as “network products and solutions.”

About a week later, Huawei Cloud ushered in new personnel appointments again. Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun was appointed as Huawei Cloud Chairman, Yu Chengdong was appointed as Huawei Cloud CEO, and Cloud BU added two deputy directors, Peng Zhongyang and Tao Jingwen in charge of corporate business. And process IT.

From the establishment of Cloud and Computing BG to the dismantling of Cloud and Computing BG, Cloud BU has once again returned to an independent state. Xu Zhijun said to the relevant changes that Huawei Cloud has always been an end-to-end independent BU. At the beginning of the establishment of HUAWEI CLOUD, it was hoped to coordinate the operation of servers and storage with HUAWEI CLOUD, but the collaborative operation was found to consume the energy of the cloud team.

He pointed out that the adjustments made now are to hope that the cloud business will be more independent and focus on developing cloud. At the same time, in the long run, we hope to increase the proportion of software service revenue.

Under the influence of the US ban, Huawei is also actively thinking about future business development issues. How does the future go? Xu Zhijun put forward five key strategic measures in the future, and the first one is to optimize the industrial mix and enhance the resilience of the industry, especially the enhancement of software capabilities, the strengthening of investment in advanced technology and weak-related industries and the investment in the smart auto parts industry.

Dai Mingzhe told Sohu Technology that under the ban, the chip industry chain will have a certain impact. However, Huawei’s cloud business will focus on software development in the future, and it is expected that this impact will be mitigated to a certain extent.

Can the cloud business become the next “cash cow”?

The cloud market still has development potential. Gartner data shows that as of 2019, the global cloud computing market reached US$188.3 billion, and it is expected that the market size will reach US$350 billion in 2023. According to the “2020 Cloud Computing Development White Paper” issued by the Institute of Information and Communications Technology, China’s cloud computing market is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next four years.

At the same time, the cloud business has brought huge returns to the top manufacturers. According to the 2020 earnings report, AWS cloud services contributed 11.7% of revenue and 59% of profits for Amazon. According to Microsoft’s financial report, since the Q3 quarter of fiscal year 2020, revenue from the smart cloud business has become Microsoft’s largest source of revenue for three consecutive quarters.

Of course, before the cloud business brought huge returns, it was also a terrible “golden beast”. Only after a huge investment can manufacturers “lie down and make money.” From the official commercial use of Amazon AWS in 2006 to 2015, it took nearly 10 years to turn around. year. Alibaba Cloud was founded in 2009, but it achieved breakeven for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it took about 11 years from a huge loss to a balance.

Gu Fan, general manager of cloud service product management for AWS Greater China, once said that it took nearly 10 years for AWS to achieve its first $10 billion in revenue from scratch, and it took 23 months for the second $10 billion increase. The third $10 billion increase took 13 months.

Huawei hopes to avoid excessive capital investment and emphasizes the construction of application ecology. Ren Zhengfei pointed out in his internal letter at the end of last year, “We can’t simply take the same path as Ali and Amazon. We don’t have that much money. They have endless amounts of money in the US stock market. How do we develop, we must find a way out. , Rather than simply imitating.”

In China, BAT Internet vendors, three major operators, Huawei Cloud, Kingsoft Cloud and other vendors gathered in the cloud computing track. A cloud computing-related practitioner told Sohu Technology that compared with other vendors, Huawei’s advantages lie in sales capabilities, key customer relationships, hardware coordination capabilities, and a top-to-bottom ecosystem.

Through the growth process of Amazon and Alibaba, we can see that cloud is not a “quick money” business. From its exposure to cloud computing in 2011, to its formal entry into the public cloud in 2017, and to the further improvement of its strategic position today, Huawei has not disclosed the revenue of its cloud business to the public.

It is foreseeable that Huawei Cloud still has a long way to go in the process of increasing software revenue and optimizing the industry mix.

Produced | Sohu Technology

Author | Song Wanxin

Edit｜ Yang Jin

After the traditional e-commerce of Taobao and Jingdong, and the social e-commerce of Pinduoduo, Douyin put forward a new concept-“interest e-commerce” at the recent e-commerce conference.

According to the explanation by Kang Zeyu, president of Douyin e-commerce, “interest e-commerce” is to tap the potential shopping needs of users based on the content ecology and recommendation algorithm of Douyin. If the traditional shelf-style e-commerce in the Taobao era is that users go shopping with their goals, then “interest e-commerce” is to use algorithms to recommend products that may be of interest to users when they have no purpose.

If you compare Taobao to a shopping mall, Douyin is more like a pedestrian street.

Another new concept was introduced, and the controversy about “whether it is a pseudo concept” also arises. From the perspective of implementation means, the essence of “interested e-commerce” is “commodity recommendation”, and this function is actually not absent on platforms such as Taobao and JD.com. But Chen Jun, a senior practitioner in the e-commerce industry, believes that Taobao does the most to match demand. He told Sohu Technology that the algorithm recommendation is to increase the conversion rate as much as possible, that is, to allow people at each level to get the consumption they need, so as to increase the conversion rate.

Regardless of how “interested e-commerce” is defined, Douyin has come up with algorithmic tools to tap the value of public domain traffic, convert more potential users to shopping live broadcast rooms, and then undertake with a brand with a certain degree of recognition and trust. , Guarantee retention and repurchase rate.

“The efficiency of the Douyin team is still very high. From the start of the e-commerce business to the present, it has output its own methodology in more than a year.” Wuyou Media CEO Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology.

A few days before the Douyin E-commerce Conference, Kuaishou also held a self-e-commerce conference. The live broadcast e-commerce methodology expounded by Kuaishou seems to be quite different from Douyin, but when you look closely, the two essentially have the same demands.

“Rely on public domain in the short-term and private domain in the long-term”, Kuaishou advocates that the promotion of transaction traffic comes from the follow page, so that the master and the merchant have the right to control the traffic. Although Kuaishou emphasized the “private domain” from the beginning to the end of the conference, one detail worth noting is that Simba, who has the strongest private domain traffic, did not appear in any promotional videos of the conference due to the “bird’s nest sale incident”. And the anchor case.

In fact, Kuaishou seems to be deliberately weakening family-style private domain traffic, and instead uses “private domain traffic” to attract mid-waist anchors and business self-broadcasts to balance the power of the family, and covertly transfer to the public domain under the crust of private domain.

With Kuaishou’s listing and TikTok approaching its listing, the two e-commerce businesses have also come to an interweaving point dramatically, that is, the competition for public domain traffic and brand owners. Douyin once again chose to start from the high line, and Kuaishou once again completed the low line and hit the high line from the low line. The short video war between the two sides once again repeated itself in the field of e-commerce.

It’s better to rely on the anchor than the brand

“The vibrato is a lesson learned from Taobao live broadcast and Kuaishou.” Chen Jun said.

In the field of e-commerce, although Douyin is a late player, it may be a smart and powerful opponent. More than a year after Douyin started its e-commerce business, the first e-commerce methodology that has attracted the attention of the outside world is the importance of Douyin e-commerce on brand self-broadcasting.

Since Luo Yonghao launched the first shot of Douyin live e-commerce last year, various celebrity artists have also appeared one by one, but while sales are refreshing high, the industry has also begun to talk about the platform ecology of “Douyin does not have a brother”. Compared with Kuaishou’s strong private domain traffic, Douyin’s public domain ecology is difficult to incubate a benchmark anchor, and it has almost blocked the idea of ​​relying on anchors to bring goods to establish an industry image.

Xiaohulu big data shows that from April to December last year, among the top 100 master anchors in total sales on Taobao, Kuaishou, and Douyin, 45 were Kuaishou anchors, 40 were Taobao anchors, and only 15 were Douyin anchors. Among the top 10 sales talent anchors, 5 are Taobao anchors, 4 are Kuaishou anchors, and only Luo Yonghao is the Douyin anchor.

According to Tencent’s deep network citing people who ran Douyin e-commerce in the early days, 6 accounts were incubated on Douyin, with a total number of fans of about 100,000. However, according to his observation, the number of fans is not directly related to the amount of goods carried. 3 After the monthly explosion, sales have entered a stable period.

This problem is not uncovered within Douyin. At the conference, Douyin e-commerce put forward the “FACT model”, which represents the self-broadcasting of merchants, the talent matrix, marketing activities, and the big V of the head. The four horses are equally important to balance the forces of all parties.

In fact, before the official announcement, the Douyin e-commerce ecology had already formed a big environment where the brand was popular. In August last year, Xiao Dongyu, head of Weige’s MCN brand live broadcast service, told Sohu Technology that Douyin’s head anchors generally tend to work directly with the supply chain, with brand-specific shows accounting for the majority, while Taobao’s mixed broadcasting is the main focus.

“The FACT mode of Douyin deliberately avoids the potential hazards of Hengqiang on the head. There must be drawbacks to only grabbing one head in the private and public domains. The space in the waist really needs a platform to redistribute traffic. What I see is , Douyin is strengthening this transformation.” Wuyou Media CEO Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology.

Judging from the experience of Kuaishou and Taobao, the negative impact of strong top anchors is self-evident. Simba, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya gradually evolved from platform signs to platform ceilings and began to counterbalance the overall ecological health of the platform.

Take Simba’s return to his debut as an example. Although Simba has tried his best to keep a low profile, it is still difficult to conceal his influence. At the end of the whole live broadcast, Simba recommended a batch of newcomer anchors, and added fans to these newcomers’ accounts. Some of the anchors increased their fans at one time by more than one million orders. In a sense, Simba’s private control of traffic has been Beyond the platform.

Chen Jun said that the essence of Douyin’s support for brand self-broadcasting is to redistribute benefits and achieve a balance between all parties, instead of letting a certain character become fat, and other characters are sucked up.

Kang Zeyu, President of Tik Tok E-commerce, emphasized that Tik Tok attaches great importance to all levels. For Long Tail, Tik Tok will set up a selection alliance to make it easier for them to choose products. There may be some requests for brand cooperation in the middle waist, and Douyin will support it through mechanisms such as Douyin Link. On the head, there are more customization needs, such as building your own team and even brand.

In terms of revenue, Douyin e-commerce is similar to Taobao. Its revenue mainly consists of GMV rake and advertising. Brand merchants can contribute more stable GMV and traffic purchase costs. Moreover, mature top brands have a complete supply chain, which can make up for the incomplete Douyin stores. This all constitutes the reason why Douyin supports brand self-broadcasting.

However, Douyin’s brand self-broadcasting is obviously still in its infancy. Xiaohulu big data shows that of the top 100 stores with total sales last year, 98 live rooms are from Taobao, and only 2 live rooms are from Douyin.

The hidden worries of large-scale anti-super fast hands and Taobao live broadcast

In the outside world’s perception of live e-commerce, Kuaishou e-commerce has a first-mover advantage and seems to be the best in scale, but from the data point of view, facts and subjective feelings may be deviated.

According to a report from the financial media “LatePost”, Douyin’s live broadcast of e-commerce GMV exceeded 500 billion yuan last year. The Kuaishou financial report shows that last year’s Kuaishou GMV was 381.2 billion yuan, and Taobao live broadcast exceeded 400 billion yuan. In terms of scale, Douyin has achieved a surpassing Taobao live broadcast and Kuaishou.

The Douyin e-commerce business plans to raise the GMV target this year to one trillion yuan, doubling the previous year. In contrast, Pinduoduo only broke through one trillion in 2019, compared with 1.6 trillion last year. In other words, if the goal is achieved, Douyin’s e-commerce business alone will surpass the scale of Pinduoduo in 2019.

According to Questmobile data, during the National Day last year, Douyin stores have basically become the only channel for live e-commerce on the platform, accounting for 96%, while Kuaishou stores only accounted for one-third of their revenue, and Taobao and Youzan each accounted for it. one third. From the data point of view, Douyin has basically formed a closed loop, and Kuaishou’s e-commerce revenue still has a high proportion of people making wedding dresses for others.

Since the establishment of the first-level e-commerce department last year, in order to establish a closed-loop Douyin store, Douyin first broke off the third-party platform for live broadcast and delivery, and then launched Douyin payment. In addition, it has reached a cooperation with the big channel brand Suning to support various players. TikTok e-commerce closed loop was established quickly.

However, the construction of the Douyin store and the overall operating system is still relatively simple. After Douyin’s external link was broken last year, Roman e-commerce director Li Jianfeng once told Sohu Technology that the Douyin store is relatively immediacy. In terms of long-term operation, merchants have not received clear guidance.

It is understandable that Douyin is doing e-commerce based on its own strengths “recommendation algorithm”, but this also makes it difficult for “recommended live broadcast” to meet the daily sales needs of merchants. In addition, merchants who have become accustomed to Taobao’s more complex operating rules cannot quickly build a similar operating system on Douyin, and the Douyin platform itself does not yet have a standardized product similar to Alimama to guide merchant operations.

At the product level, unlike Kuaishou and Taobao live broadcasts, Douyin’s e-commerce portal “Douyin Mall” is located on the personal homepage. There is no classification as a whole. Only the “Guess you like” part recommends products based on algorithms. It is designed as a double-row information stream. In the information flow, live broadcast portals and commodity link portals are mixed.

This shows that “search-based e-commerce” currently does not have a high priority in Douyin e-commerce as a whole.

In addition to the differences in product design, Lei Binyi believes that if Douyin and Taobao are compared, because of their genetic differences, Taobao, as an e-commerce platform, converts traffic to live broadcasts, and the accuracy rate will be higher than that of Douyin.

QuestMobile’s data report in April last year showed that among the current major content platforms, the average conversion rates of Douyin and Kuaishou were 8.1% and 2.7%, respectively. However, there are still differences between sub-industries and brands of different sizes. A person familiar with the matter revealed to Sohu Technology that the conversion rate of Douyin stores is only 1.4% for the top brand in a certain vertical category. The flow of the department is coordinated”.

The greatest insecurity in Douyin’s public domain traffic distribution is reflected in the instability of sales conversion. In such an environment, the top brand can survive the cold start period more smoothly by virtue of a higher consumer awareness base.

Wu Lifeng, head of the e-commerce platform of Peacebird Live, told Sohu Technology that if 1 million people come in to watch the live broadcast during a live broadcast, and 150,000 people will eventually enter the store, the conversion rate can reach 15%, which is already a considerable benefit. From the perspective of the entire brand’s self-broadcasting, the launch traffic accounted for 30%, and the organic traffic accounted for about 70%.

Douyin has already begun to make attempts on private domains. In March of this year, Douyin quietly launched the test of the fan group chat function, and businesses can establish private domain communities on Douyin. For example, Luo Yonghao’s “Make Friends” Douyin fan group has reached 50.

On the other hand, in order to open up public domain and private domain traffic, Kuaishou began to test the e-commerce marketing platform Magnetic Taurus on March 31, and integrate Kuaishou Noodles + Xiaodiantong. As for the shortcomings of “brand self-broadcasting”, Kuaishou is also working hard to erase the prejudice of the outside world. Xiao Gu, the person in charge of Kuaishou e-commerce company, responded, “Many brands ask us whether I can do it in Kuaishou, and whether Kuaishou is suitable for branding. My response to everyone is that for a platform where 300 million people come every day, it must It’s suitable for brands, but the way of doing it is different. We encourage store broadcasting and self-broadcasting more.” He explained that if it is a flagship store, the content and trust of store-broadcasting are insufficient, but if self-broadcasting is done, as On the brand side, you can open an account to make the personality more interesting.

In the traffic war between private and public domains, the battle between Douyin, Kuaishou and Taobao Live has just begun.

Where is the channel dividend, where is the brand

In the past three years, live broadcast e-commerce has developed rapidly, but it has quickly reached a bottleneck. Among the three leading platforms of Douyin, Kuaishou, and Taobao Live, Douyin is still a newcomer, but it is also the only platform that is still on the rise. In e-commerce, an industry that has high customer acquisition costs and constant need for traffic access, it is the common understanding of merchants to seize Douyin, even if the future of Douyin e-commerce is still unclear.

Earlier, many merchants told Sohu Technology that Douyin’s disconnection of external links last year did cause them a relatively large turmoil in the short term. Originally, there was no plan to open a small store on Douyin, but considering that Taobao has not too many Incremental space, just to be on the safe side, still cannot give up the market of Douyin.

“We are indeed investing more operational energy in Douyin now, because relatively speaking, Taobao’s live broadcast pattern has been more solidified.” Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology. He observed that even if it is Taobao’s head anchor, Spending a lot of money to advertise outside the site, such as WeChat’s Guangdiantong and various other channels.

Recently, Tmall has rarely lowered the threshold for merchants to enter. After April 19, newly opened stores can become official Tmall stores only by passing the 7-month trial operation capability assessment. This is the first time that Tmall has revised its store opening rules since its establishment in 2009.

Where the channel dividend is, where is the brand owner. Its own bottleneck and Douyin Kuaishou’s plundering of merchant resources are increasing the sense of crisis on Taobao and Tmall.

In fact, the Taobao brand has already worked hard in the field of self-broadcasting, and it has become a standard for Taobao live broadcast. However, Lei Binyi pointed out that Taobao’s live broadcast mechanism has defects in store self-broadcasting. “Taobao’s service fee for proxy broadcasts is paid by the hour Paid, that is, how much is an hour, but Douyin is a cost model of CPS (charged by actual sales volume), which is obviously more effective in motivating anchors.”

QuestMobile’s live e-commerce report in October last year showed that as of September 2020, the proportion of users watching live broadcasts on Kuaishou and Douyin platforms has reached around 80%, and the user habits of live e-commerce have basically formed. However, it is worth noting that the proportion of Kuaishou head KOLs participating in live broadcast is 58.5%, and the proportion of carrying goods is 36.6%. In contrast, the proportion of Douyin head KOLs participating in live broadcast is about 27.5%, and the proportion of carrying goods is 51.2%.

In other words, although Kuaishou has created its image as the “first live broadcast e-commerce platform”, Kuaishou still dominates live entertainment. On the vibrato, more than half of the anchors who started live broadcasts for the purpose of bringing goods accounted for more than half.

Under the influence of head anchors such as Simba, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya, Hengqiang, the waist and tail anchors began to test the waters in many ways. The person in charge of MCN once told Sohu Technology, “The anchors are studying how to drain traffic more accurately. Taobao does not The method is to provide traffic to the live broadcast room, but Douyin can. The two sides have very different operating methods for the anchors. Therefore, many mid-waist anchors can only test the water in many ways, and a small proportion of them are “out of the country”.”

E-commerce anchors are fleeing Kuaishou and Taobao, and the agency service providers are also seeing the dividends of Douyin.

Chen Jun told Sohu Technology that the service provider of TikTok Lining’s official account used to be mainly engaged in content marketing, but only transformed into an e-commerce agency operation in August last year. “Originally, the company was almost unable to sustain it. After the transformation, it is now one month later. The transaction turnover is about 50 million.” He said that the general trend of brand self-broadcasting will drive the rapid growth of the entire agency operation industry.

On the whole, the basic ideas of Douyin e-commerce, the overall framework of the store, the basic disks of the top merchants and users are all in place. The next decision is whether the wild growth of GMV can last or not, which is the most critical user experience. , And whether internal management can keep up with the speed of business expansion.

An insider of Douyin revealed to Sohu Technology that the two e-commerce departments within Byte are trying to integrate. One is the e-commerce department of the group established in June last year. Before the establishment of the department, Douyin already had one of its subordinates. E-commerce department. And BYTE hopes to put the old e-commerce department under Douyin into the commercialization group, that is, Zhang Lidong’s subordinates.

“This year Douyin is going to engage in e-commerce.” The insider said. After Douyin catches up on the scale of GMV, whether it can reverse the live broadcast e-commerce landscape and carry the imagination of going public, perhaps there will be an answer within the year.

(At the request of the interviewee, Chen Jun is a pseudonym)

Produced | Sohu Technology

Author | Song Wanxin

Edit｜ Yang Jin

After the traditional e-commerce of Taobao and Jingdong, and the social e-commerce of Pinduoduo, Douyin put forward a new concept-“interest e-commerce” at the recent e-commerce conference.

According to the explanation by Kang Zeyu, president of Douyin e-commerce, “interest e-commerce” is to tap the potential shopping needs of users based on the content ecology and recommendation algorithm of Douyin. If the traditional shelf-style e-commerce in the Taobao era is that users go shopping with their goals, then “interest e-commerce” is to use algorithms to recommend products that may be of interest to users when they have no purpose.

If you compare Taobao to a shopping mall, Douyin is more like a pedestrian street.

Another new concept was introduced, and the controversy about “whether it is a pseudo concept” also arises. From the perspective of implementation means, the essence of “interested e-commerce” is “commodity recommendation”, and this function is actually not absent on platforms such as Taobao and JD.com. But Chen Jun, a senior practitioner in the e-commerce industry, believes that Taobao does the most to match demand. He told Sohu Technology that the algorithm recommendation is to increase the conversion rate as much as possible, that is, to allow people at each level to get the consumption they need, so as to increase the conversion rate.

Regardless of how “interested e-commerce” is defined, Douyin has come up with algorithmic tools to tap the value of public domain traffic, convert more potential users to shopping live broadcast rooms, and then undertake with a brand with a certain degree of recognition and trust. , Guarantee retention and repurchase rate.

“The efficiency of the Douyin team is still very high. From the start of the e-commerce business to the present, it has output its own methodology in more than a year.” Wuyou Media CEO Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology.

A few days before the Douyin E-commerce Conference, Kuaishou also held a self-e-commerce conference. The live broadcast e-commerce methodology expounded by Kuaishou seems to be quite different from Douyin, but when you look closely, the two essentially have the same demands.

“Rely on public domain in the short-term and private domain in the long-term”, Kuaishou advocates that the promotion of transaction traffic comes from the follow page, so that the master and the merchant have the right to control the traffic. Although Kuaishou emphasized the “private domain” from the beginning to the end of the conference, one detail worth noting is that Simba, who has the strongest private domain traffic, did not appear in any promotional videos of the conference due to the “bird’s nest sale incident”. And the anchor case.

In fact, Kuaishou seems to be deliberately weakening family-style private domain traffic, and instead uses “private domain traffic” to attract mid-waist anchors and business self-broadcasts to balance the power of the family, and covertly transfer to the public domain under the crust of private domain.

With Kuaishou’s listing and TikTok approaching its listing, the two e-commerce businesses have also come to an interweaving point dramatically, that is, the competition for public domain traffic and brand owners. Douyin once again chose to start from the high line, and Kuaishou once again completed the low line and hit the high line from the low line. The short video war between the two sides once again repeated itself in the field of e-commerce.

It’s better to rely on the anchor than the brand

“The vibrato is a lesson learned from Taobao live broadcast and Kuaishou.” Chen Jun said.

In the field of e-commerce, although Douyin is a late player, it may be a smart and powerful opponent. More than a year after Douyin started its e-commerce business, the first e-commerce methodology that has attracted the attention of the outside world is the importance of Douyin e-commerce on brand self-broadcasting.

Since Luo Yonghao launched the first shot of Douyin live e-commerce last year, various celebrity artists have also appeared one by one, but while sales are refreshing high, the industry has also begun to talk about the platform ecology of “Douyin does not have a brother”. Compared with Kuaishou’s strong private domain traffic, Douyin’s public domain ecology is difficult to incubate a benchmark anchor, and it has almost blocked the idea of ​​relying on anchors to bring goods to establish an industry image.

Xiaohulu big data shows that from April to December last year, among the top 100 master anchors in total sales on Taobao, Kuaishou, and Douyin, 45 were Kuaishou anchors, 40 were Taobao anchors, and only 15 were Douyin anchors. Among the top 10 sales talent anchors, 5 are Taobao anchors, 4 are Kuaishou anchors, and only Luo Yonghao is the Douyin anchor.

According to Tencent’s deep network citing people who ran Douyin e-commerce in the early days, 6 accounts were incubated on Douyin, with a total number of fans of about 100,000. However, according to his observation, the number of fans is not directly related to the amount of goods carried. 3 After the monthly explosion, sales have entered a stable period.

This problem is not uncovered within Douyin. At the conference, Douyin e-commerce put forward the “FACT model”, which represents the self-broadcasting of merchants, the talent matrix, marketing activities, and the big V of the head. The four horses are equally important to balance the forces of all parties.

In fact, before the official announcement, the Douyin e-commerce ecology had already formed a big environment where the brand was popular. In August last year, Xiao Dongyu, head of Weige’s MCN brand live broadcast service, told Sohu Technology that Douyin’s head anchors generally tend to work directly with the supply chain, with brand-specific shows accounting for the majority, while Taobao’s mixed broadcasting is the main focus.

“The FACT mode of Douyin deliberately avoids the potential hazards of Hengqiang on the head. There must be drawbacks to only grabbing one head in the private and public domains. The space in the waist really needs a platform to redistribute traffic. What I see is , Douyin is strengthening this transformation.” Wuyou Media CEO Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology.

Judging from the experience of Kuaishou and Taobao, the negative impact of strong top anchors is self-evident. Simba, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya gradually evolved from platform signs to platform ceilings and began to counterbalance the overall ecological health of the platform.

Take Simba’s return to his debut as an example. Although Simba has tried his best to keep a low profile, it is still difficult to conceal his influence. At the end of the whole live broadcast, Simba recommended a batch of newcomer anchors, and added fans to these newcomers’ accounts. Some of the anchors increased their fans at one time by more than one million orders. In a sense, Simba’s private control of traffic has been Beyond the platform.

Chen Jun said that the essence of Douyin’s support for brand self-broadcasting is to redistribute benefits and achieve a balance between all parties, instead of letting a certain character become fat, and other characters are sucked up.

Kang Zeyu, President of Tik Tok E-commerce, emphasized that Tik Tok attaches great importance to all levels. For Long Tail, Tik Tok will set up a selection alliance to make it easier for them to choose products. There may be some requests for brand cooperation in the middle waist, and Douyin will support it through mechanisms such as Douyin Link. On the head, there are more customization needs, such as building your own team and even brand.

In terms of revenue, Douyin e-commerce is similar to Taobao. Its revenue mainly consists of GMV rake and advertising. Brand merchants can contribute more stable GMV and traffic purchase costs. Moreover, mature top brands have a complete supply chain, which can make up for the incomplete Douyin stores. This all constitutes the reason why Douyin supports brand self-broadcasting.

But Douyin’s brand self-broadcasting is obviously still in its infancy. Xiaohulu big data shows that of the top 100 stores with total sales last year, 98 live rooms are from Taobao, and only 2 live rooms are from Douyin.

The hidden worries of large-scale anti-super fast hands and Taobao live broadcast

In the outside world’s perception of live e-commerce, Kuaishou e-commerce has a first-mover advantage and seems to be the best in terms of scale, but from the data point of view, facts and subjective feelings may be somewhat different.

According to a report from the financial media “LatePost”, Douyin’s live broadcast of e-commerce GMV exceeded 500 billion yuan last year. The Kuaishou financial report shows that last year, Kuaishou’s GMV was 381.2 billion yuan, and Taobao’s live broadcast exceeded 400 billion yuan. In terms of scale, Douyin has achieved a surpassing Taobao live broadcast and Kuaishou.

The Douyin e-commerce business plans to raise the GMV target this year to one trillion yuan, doubling the previous year. In contrast, Pinduoduo only broke through one trillion in 2019, compared with 1.6 trillion last year. In other words, if the goal is achieved, Douyin’s e-commerce business alone will surpass the scale of Pinduoduo in 2019.

According to Questmobile data, during the National Day last year, Douyin stores have basically become the only channel for live e-commerce on the platform, accounting for 96%, while Kuaishou stores only accounted for one-third of their revenue, and Taobao and Youzan each accounted for it. one third. From the data point of view, Douyin has basically formed a closed loop, and Kuaishou’s e-commerce revenue still has a high proportion of people making wedding dresses for others.

Since the establishment of the first-level e-commerce department last year, in order to establish a closed-loop Douyin store, Douyin first broke off the third-party platform for live broadcast and delivery, and then launched Douyin payment. In addition, it has reached a cooperation with the big channel brand Suning to support various players. TikTok e-commerce closed loop was established quickly.

However, the construction of the Douyin store and the overall operating system is still relatively simple. After Douyin’s external link was broken last year, Li Jianfeng, the director of Roman e-commerce, once told Sohu Technology that Douyin stores are relatively immediacy, and merchants have not received clear guidance for long-term operations.

It is understandable that Douyin is an e-commerce company starting from its own strengths “recommendation algorithm”, but this also makes it difficult for the “recommended live broadcast” to meet the daily sales needs of businesses. In addition, merchants who have become accustomed to Taobao’s more complex operating rules cannot quickly build a similar operating system on Douyin, and the Douyin platform itself does not yet have a standardized product similar to Alimama to guide merchant operations.

At the product level, unlike Kuaishou and Taobao live broadcasts, Douyin’s e-commerce portal “Douyin Mall” is located on the personal homepage. There is no classification as a whole. Only the “Guess you like” part recommends products based on algorithms, designed as a double-row information stream, and In the information flow, live broadcast portals and commodity link portals are mixed.

This shows that “search-based e-commerce” currently does not have a high priority in Douyin e-commerce as a whole.

In addition to the differences in product design, Lei Binyi believes that if Douyin and Taobao are compared, because of their genetic differences, Taobao, as an e-commerce platform, converts traffic to live broadcasts, and the accuracy rate will be higher than that of Douyin.

QuestMobile’s data report in April last year showed that among the current major content platforms, the average conversion rates of Douyin and Kuaishou were 8.1% and 2.7%, respectively. However, there are still differences between sub-industries and brands of different sizes. A person familiar with the matter revealed to Sohu Technology that the conversion rate of Douyin stores is only 1.4% for the top brand in a certain vertical category. The flow of the department is coordinated”.

The greatest insecurity in Douyin’s public domain traffic distribution is reflected in the instability of sales conversion. In such an environment, the top brand can survive the cold start period more smoothly by virtue of a higher consumer awareness base.

Wu Lifeng, head of the e-commerce platform of Peacebird Live, told Sohu Technology that if 1 million people come in to watch the live broadcast during a live broadcast, and 150,000 people will eventually enter the store, the conversion rate can reach 15%, which is already a considerable benefit. From the perspective of the entire brand’s self-broadcasting, the launch traffic accounted for 30%, and the organic traffic accounted for about 70%.

Douyin has already begun to make attempts on private domains. In March of this year, Douyin quietly launched the test of the fan group chat function, and businesses can establish private domain communities on Douyin. For example, Luo Yonghao’s “Make Friends” Douyin fan group has reached 50.

On the other hand, in order to open up public domain and private domain traffic, Kuaishou began to test the e-commerce marketing platform Magnetic Taurus on March 31, and integrate Kuaishou Noodles + Xiaodiantong. As for the shortcomings of “brand self-broadcasting”, Kuaishou is also working hard to erase the prejudice of the outside world. Xiao Gu, the person in charge of Kuaishou e-commerce company, responded, “Many brands ask us whether I can do it in Kuaishou, and whether Kuaishou is suitable for branding. My response to everyone is that for a platform where 300 million people come every day, it must It’s suitable for brands, but the way of doing it is different. We encourage store broadcasting and self-broadcasting more.” He explained that if it is a flagship store, the content and trust of store-broadcasting are insufficient, but if self-broadcasting is done, as On the brand side, you can open an account to make the personality more interesting.

In the traffic war between private and public domains, the battle between Douyin, Kuaishou and Taobao Live has just begun.

Where is the channel dividend, where is the brand

In the past three years, live broadcast e-commerce has developed rapidly, but it has quickly reached a bottleneck. Among the three leading platforms of Douyin, Kuaishou, and Taobao Live, Douyin is still a newcomer, but it is also the only platform that is still on the rise. In e-commerce, an industry that has high customer acquisition costs and constant need for traffic access, it is the common understanding of merchants to seize Douyin, even if the future of Douyin e-commerce is still unclear.

Earlier, many merchants told Sohu Technology that Douyin’s disconnection of external links last year did cause them a relatively large turmoil in the short term. Originally, there was no plan to open a small store on Douyin, but considering that Taobao has not too many Incremental space, just to be on the safe side, still cannot give up the market of Douyin.

“We are indeed investing more operational energy in Douyin now, because relatively speaking, Taobao’s live broadcast pattern has been more solidified.” Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology. He observed that even if it is Taobao’s head anchor, Spending a lot of money to advertise outside the site, such as WeChat’s Guangdiantong and various other channels.

Recently, Tmall has rarely lowered the threshold for merchants to enter. After April 19, newly opened stores can become official Tmall stores only by passing the 7-month trial operation capability assessment. This is the first time that Tmall has revised its store opening rules since its establishment in 2009.

Where the channel dividend is, where is the brand owner. Its own bottleneck and Douyin Kuaishou’s plundering of merchant resources are increasing the sense of crisis on Taobao and Tmall.

In fact, the Taobao brand has already worked hard in the field of self-broadcasting, and it has become a standard for Taobao live broadcast. However, Lei Binyi pointed out that Taobao’s live broadcast mechanism has defects in store self-broadcasting. “Taobao’s service fee for proxy broadcasts is paid by the hour. Paid, that is, how much is an hour, but Douyin is a cost model of CPS (charged by actual sales volume), which is obviously more effective in motivating anchors.”

QuestMobile’s live e-commerce report in October last year showed that as of September 2020, the proportion of users watching live broadcasts on Kuaishou and Douyin platforms has reached around 80%, and the user habits of live e-commerce have basically formed. However, it is worth noting that the proportion of Kuaishou head KOLs participating in live broadcast is 58.5%, and the proportion of carrying goods is 36.6%. In contrast, the proportion of Douyin head KOLs participating in live broadcast is about 27.5%, and the proportion of carrying goods is 51.2%.

In other words, although Kuaishou has created its image as the “first platform for live streaming e-commerce”, Kuaishou still dominates live entertainment. And more than half of the anchors on Douyin who started live broadcasts for the purpose of bringing goods.

Under the influence of head anchors such as Simba, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya, Hengqiang, the waist and tail anchors began to test the waters in many ways. The person in charge of MCN once told Sohu Technology, “The anchors are studying how to drain traffic more accurately. Taobao does not The method is to provide traffic to the live broadcast room, but Douyin can. The two sides have very different operating methods for the anchors. Therefore, many mid-waist anchors can only test the water in many ways, and a small proportion of them are “out of the country”.”

E-commerce anchors are fleeing Kuaishou and Taobao, and the agency service providers are also seeing the dividends of Douyin.

Chen Jun told Sohu Technology that the service provider of TikTok Lining’s official account used to be mainly engaged in content marketing, but only transformed into an e-commerce agency operation in August last year. “Originally, the company was almost unable to sustain it. After the transformation, it is now one month later. The transaction turnover is about 50 million.” He said that the general trend of brand self-broadcasting will drive the rapid growth of the entire agency operation industry.

On the whole, the basic ideas of Douyin e-commerce, the overall framework of the store, the basic disks of the top merchants and users are all in place. The next decision is whether the wild growth of GMV can last or not, which is the most critical user experience. , And whether internal management can keep up with the speed of business expansion.

An insider of Douyin revealed to Sohu Technology that the two e-commerce departments within Byte are trying to integrate. One is the e-commerce department of the group established in June last year. Before this department was established, Douyin already had one of its subordinates. E-commerce department. And BYTE hopes to put the old e-commerce department under Douyin into the commercialization group, that is, Zhang Lidong’s subordinates.

“This year Douyin is going to engage in e-commerce.” The insider said. After Douyin catches up on the scale of GMV, whether it can reverse the live broadcast e-commerce landscape and carry the imagination of going public, perhaps there will be an answer within the year.

(At the request of the interviewee, Chen Jun is a pseudonym)

According to the results of the National Nutrition Census 2019 – 2020, the diet of people in 2020 has increased on average, but only about 66.4% – 77.4%. compared with the recommended adult nutritional pyramid needs.

Meat consumption increased rapidly, more than 1.5 times, from 84g / person / day (2010) to 136.4g / person / day (by 2020); consumption in city areas is higher. Meanwhile, rice consumption tends to decrease. There is a trend in city schools to increase the consumption of soft drinks and fast foods.

Consumption of meat and ready-to-eat foods is the cause of obesity and overweight.

The rate of stunting in school age children (5-19 years old) is 14.8% (in 2010 this rate was 23.4%). It is very noteworthy that the rate of overweight and obesity will increase from 8.5% in 2010 to 19% in 2020 (more than 2 times), of which it is 26.8% in urban areas (more than 3 times higher). 18.3% in rural areas and 6.9% in mountainous areas.

Exercise will help children avoid obesity.

Proper nutrition and increased exercise to prevent obesity

According to Assoc. Dr. Le Bach Mai – Former Deputy Director of the National Institute of Nutrition, if the child has mild physical activity, sleep less than 8 hours / day, the risk of being overweight and obese is almost 3 times higher than that of physically active children. heavy power, enough sleep, little computer sitting Therefore, elementary school students need 1-2 hours / day of physical exercise and sports. On the other hand, feed your baby regularly on a fixed day of the month before eating. If your child gains weight in excess of the standard for 3 to 5 months in a row, parents need immediate treatment to avoid obesity. When the baby has shaped the eating habits and overweight is too much, it is difficult for parents to lose weight.

Experts also recommend that the best method is proper nutrition, increase physical activity, and reduce sedentary time. Children under 2 years old should not watch TV, older children should only watch TV for less than 2 hours / day or less than 14 hours / week. In addition, the sleep time, for children 0-5 years old is 11 hours / day; 5-10 years old is 10 hours / day; over 10 years old is 9 hours / day.

Also according to experts, the prevention of overweight and obesity is not only the responsibility of the health sector but needs the coordination of many other disciplines, including the Education sector. The school needs to balance school meals, create a playground for children to exercise and play sports. On the other hand, children need to be educated to realize the harmful effects of obesity and how to prevent them. Besides, parents need to set an example for their children about healthy and balanced exercise and eating habits; encourage and encourage your child to play sports or participate in active games instead of playing games, “surfing” Facebook …

The requirements for energy and protein at specific ages are as follows:
+ From 6 years old: Energy 1600; 36g protein
+ From 7-9 years old: Energy 1800; Protein 40g
+ From 10-12 years old: Energy 2100– 2200; Protein 50g

Attention: If it is not possible to process many kinds of dishes in a day, the child’s protein can be calculated as follows: For every 100g of lean meat is equivalent to 150g of fish or shrimp, 200g of tofu, 2 duck eggs or 3 eggs . If you eat all kinds of vermicelli, vermicelli, pho, potato, maize, and cassava, you must reduce the amount of rice.

After the traditional e-commerce of Taobao and Jingdong, and the social e-commerce of Pinduoduo, Douyin put forward a new concept-“interest e-commerce” at the recent e-commerce conference.

According to the explanation by Kang Zeyu, president of Douyin e-commerce, “interest e-commerce” is to tap the potential shopping needs of users based on the content ecology and recommendation algorithm of Douyin. If the traditional shelf-style e-commerce in the Taobao era is that users go shopping with their goals, then “interest e-commerce” is to use algorithms to recommend products that may be of interest to users when they have no purpose.

If you compare Taobao to a shopping mall, Douyin is more like a pedestrian street.

Another new concept was introduced, and the controversy about “whether it is a pseudo concept” also arises. From the perspective of implementation means, the essence of “interested e-commerce” is “commodity recommendation”, and this function is actually not absent on platforms such as Taobao and JD.com. But Chen Jun, a senior practitioner in the e-commerce industry, believes that Taobao does the most to match demand. He told Sohu Technology that the algorithm recommendation is to increase the conversion rate as much as possible, that is, to allow people at each level to get the consumption they need, so as to increase the conversion rate.

Regardless of how “interested e-commerce” is defined, Douyin has come up with algorithmic tools to tap the value of public domain traffic, convert more potential users to shopping live broadcast rooms, and then undertake with a brand with a certain degree of recognition and trust. , Guarantee retention and repurchase rate.

“The efficiency of the Douyin team is still very high. From the start of the e-commerce business to the present, it has output its own methodology in more than a year.” Wuyou Media CEO Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology.

A few days before the Douyin E-commerce Conference, Kuaishou also held a self-e-commerce conference. The live broadcast e-commerce methodology expounded by Kuaishou seems to be quite different from Douyin, but when you look closely, the two essentially have the same demands.

“Rely on public domain in the short-term and private domain in the long-term”, Kuaishou advocates that the promotion of transaction traffic comes from the follow page, so that the master and the merchant have the right to control the traffic. Although Kuaishou emphasized the “private domain” from the beginning to the end of the conference, one detail worth noting is that Simba, who has the strongest private domain traffic, did not appear in any promotional videos of the conference due to the “bird’s nest sale incident”. And the anchor case.

In fact, Kuaishou seems to be deliberately weakening family-style private domain traffic, and instead uses “private domain traffic” to attract mid-waist anchors and business self-broadcasts to balance the power of the family, and covertly transfer to the public domain under the crust of private domain.

With Kuaishou’s listing and TikTok approaching its listing, the two e-commerce businesses have also come to an interweaving point dramatically, that is, the competition for public domain traffic and brand owners. Douyin once again chose to start from the high line, and Kuaishou once again completed the low line and hit the high line from the low line. The short video war between the two sides once again repeated itself in the field of e-commerce.

It’s better to rely on the anchor than the brand

“The vibrato is a lesson learned from Taobao live broadcast and Kuaishou.” Chen Jun said.

In the field of e-commerce, although Douyin is a late player, it may be a smart and powerful opponent. More than a year after Douyin started its e-commerce business, the first e-commerce methodology that has attracted the attention of the outside world is the importance of Douyin e-commerce on brand self-broadcasting.

Since Luo Yonghao launched the first shot of Douyin live e-commerce last year, various celebrity artists have also appeared one by one, but while sales are refreshing high, the industry has also begun to talk about the platform ecology of “Douyin does not have a brother”. Compared with Kuaishou’s strong private domain traffic, Douyin’s public domain ecology is difficult to incubate a benchmark anchor, and it has almost blocked the idea of ​​relying on anchors to bring goods to establish an industry image.

Xiaohulu big data shows that from April to December last year, among the top 100 master anchors in total sales on Taobao, Kuaishou, and Douyin, 45 were Kuaishou anchors, 40 were Taobao anchors, and only 15 were Douyin anchors. Among the top 10 sales talent anchors, 5 are Taobao anchors, 4 are Kuaishou anchors, and only Luo Yonghao is the Douyin anchor.

According to Tencent’s deep network citing people who ran Douyin e-commerce in the early days, 6 accounts were incubated on Douyin, with a total number of fans of about 100,000. However, according to his observation, the number of fans is not directly related to the amount of goods carried. 3 After the monthly explosion, sales have entered a stable period.

This problem is not uncovered within Douyin. At the conference, Douyin e-commerce put forward the “FACT model”, which represents the self-broadcasting of merchants, the talent matrix, marketing activities, and the big V of the head. The four horses are equally important to balance the forces of all parties.

In fact, before the official announcement, the Douyin e-commerce ecology had already formed a big environment where the brand was popular. In August last year, Xiao Dongyu, head of Weige’s MCN brand live broadcast service, told Sohu Technology that Douyin’s head anchors generally tend to work directly with the supply chain, with brand-specific shows accounting for the majority, while Taobao’s mixed broadcasting is the main focus.

“The FACT mode of Douyin deliberately avoids the potential hazards of Hengqiang on the head. There must be drawbacks to only grabbing one head in the private and public domains. The space in the waist really needs a platform to redistribute traffic. What I see is , Douyin is strengthening this transformation.” Wuyou Media CEO Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology.

Judging from the experience of Kuaishou and Taobao, the negative impact of strong top anchors is self-evident. Simba, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya gradually evolved from platform signs to platform ceilings and began to counterbalance the overall ecological health of the platform.

Take Simba’s return to his debut as an example. Although Simba has tried his best to keep a low profile, it is still difficult to conceal his influence. At the end of the whole live broadcast, Simba recommended a batch of newcomer anchors, and added fans to these newcomers’ accounts. Some of the anchors increased their fans at one time by more than one million orders. In a sense, Simba’s private control of traffic has been Beyond the platform.

Chen Jun said that the essence of Douyin’s support for brand self-broadcasting is to redistribute benefits and achieve a balance between all parties, instead of letting a certain character become fat, and other characters are sucked up.

Kang Zeyu, President of Tik Tok E-commerce, emphasized that Tik Tok attaches great importance to all levels. For Long Tail, Tik Tok will set up a selection alliance to make it easier for them to choose products. There may be some requests for brand cooperation in the middle waist, and Douyin will support it through mechanisms such as Douyin Link. On the head, there are more customization needs, such as building your own team and even brand.

In terms of revenue, Douyin e-commerce is similar to Taobao. Its revenue mainly consists of GMV rake and advertising. Brand merchants can contribute more stable GMV and traffic purchase costs. Moreover, mature top brands have a complete supply chain, which can make up for the incomplete Douyin stores. This all constitutes the reason why Douyin supports brand self-broadcasting.

However, Douyin’s brand self-broadcasting is obviously still in its infancy. Xiaohulu big data shows that of the top 100 stores with total sales last year, 98 live rooms are from Taobao, and only 2 live rooms are from Douyin.

The hidden worries of large-scale anti-super fast hands and Taobao live broadcast

In the outside world’s perception of live e-commerce, Kuaishou e-commerce has a first-mover advantage and seems to be the best in terms of scale, but from the data point of view, facts and subjective feelings may be somewhat different.

According to a report from the financial media “LatePost”, Douyin’s live broadcast of e-commerce GMV exceeded 500 billion yuan last year. The Kuaishou financial report shows that last year, Kuaishou’s GMV was 381.2 billion yuan, and Taobao’s live broadcast exceeded 400 billion yuan. In terms of scale, Douyin has achieved a surpassing Taobao live broadcast and Kuaishou.

The Douyin e-commerce business plans to raise the GMV target this year to one trillion yuan, doubling the previous year. In contrast, Pinduoduo only broke through one trillion in 2019, compared with 1.6 trillion last year. In other words, if the goal is achieved, Douyin’s e-commerce business alone will surpass the scale of Pinduoduo in 2019.

According to Questmobile data, during the National Day last year, Douyin stores have basically become the only channel for live e-commerce on the platform, accounting for 96%, while Kuaishou stores only accounted for one-third of their revenue, and Taobao and Youzan each accounted for it. one third. From the data point of view, Douyin has basically formed a closed loop, and Kuaishou’s e-commerce revenue still has a high proportion of people making wedding dresses for others.

Since the establishment of the first-level e-commerce department last year, in order to establish a closed-loop Douyin store, Douyin first broke off the third-party platform for live broadcast and delivery, and then launched Douyin payment. In addition, it has reached a cooperation with the big channel brand Suning to support various players. TikTok e-commerce closed loop was established quickly.

However, the construction of the Douyin store and the overall operating system is still relatively simple. After Douyin’s external link was broken last year, Li Jianfeng, the director of Roman e-commerce, once told Sohu Technology that Douyin stores are relatively immediacy, and merchants have not received clear guidance for long-term operations.

It is understandable that Douyin is an e-commerce company starting from its own strengths “recommendation algorithm”, but this also makes it difficult for the “recommended live broadcast” to meet the daily sales needs of businesses. In addition, merchants who have become accustomed to Taobao’s more complex operating rules cannot quickly build a similar operating system on Douyin, and the Douyin platform itself does not have a standardized product similar to Alimama to guide merchant operations.

At the product level, unlike Kuaishou and Taobao live broadcasts, Douyin’s e-commerce portal “Douyin Mall” is located on the personal homepage. There is no classification as a whole. Only the “Guess you like” part recommends products based on algorithms, designed as a double-row information stream, and In the information flow, live broadcast portals and commodity link portals are mixed.

This shows that “search-based e-commerce” currently does not have a high priority in Douyin e-commerce as a whole.

In addition to the differences in product design, Lei Binyi believes that if Douyin and Taobao are compared, because of their genetic differences, Taobao, as an e-commerce platform, converts traffic to live broadcasts, and the accuracy rate will be higher than that of Douyin.

QuestMobile’s data report in April last year showed that among the current major content platforms, the average conversion rates of Douyin and Kuaishou were 8.1% and 2.7%, respectively. However, there are still differences between sub-industries and brands of different sizes. A person familiar with the matter revealed to Sohu Technology that the conversion rate of Douyin stores is only 1.4% for the top brand in a certain vertical category. The flow of the department is coordinated”.

The greatest insecurity in Douyin’s public domain traffic distribution is reflected in the instability of sales conversion. In such an environment, the top brand can survive the cold start period more smoothly by virtue of a higher consumer awareness base.

Wu Lifeng, head of the e-commerce platform of Peacebird Live, told Sohu Technology that if 1 million people come in to watch the live broadcast during a live broadcast, and 150,000 people will eventually enter the store, the conversion rate can reach 15%, which is already a considerable benefit. From the perspective of the entire brand’s self-broadcasting, the launch traffic accounted for 30%, and the organic traffic accounted for about 70%.

Douyin has already begun to make attempts on private domains. In March of this year, Douyin quietly launched the test of the fan group chat function, and businesses can establish private domain communities on Douyin. For example, Luo Yonghao’s “Make Friends” Douyin fan group has reached 50.

On the other hand, in order to open up public domain and private domain traffic, Kuaishou began to test the e-commerce marketing platform Magnetic Taurus on March 31, and integrate Kuaishou Noodles + Xiaodiantong. As for the shortcomings of “brand self-broadcasting”, Kuaishou is also working hard to erase the prejudice of the outside world. Xiao Gu, the person in charge of Kuaishou e-commerce company, responded, “Many brands ask us whether I can do it in Kuaishou, and whether Kuaishou is suitable for branding. My response to everyone is that for a platform where 300 million people come every day, it must It’s suitable for brands, but the way of doing it is different. We encourage store broadcasting and self-broadcasting more.” He explained that if it is a flagship store, the content and trust of store-broadcasting are insufficient, but if self-broadcasting is done, as On the brand side, you can open an account to make the personality more interesting.

In the traffic war between private and public domains, the battle between Douyin, Kuaishou and Taobao Live has just begun.

Where is the channel dividend, where is the brand

In the past three years, live broadcast e-commerce has developed rapidly, but it has quickly reached a bottleneck. Among the three leading platforms of Douyin, Kuaishou, and Taobao Live, Douyin is still a newcomer, but it is also the only platform that is still on the rise. In e-commerce, an industry that has high customer acquisition costs and constant need for traffic access, it is the common understanding of merchants to seize Douyin, even if the future of Douyin e-commerce is still unclear.

Earlier, many merchants told Sohu Technology that Douyin’s disconnection of external links last year did cause them a relatively large turmoil in the short term. Originally, there was no plan to open a small store on Douyin, but considering that Taobao has not too many Incremental space, just to be on the safe side, still cannot give up the market of Douyin.

“We are indeed investing more operational energy in Douyin now, because relatively speaking, Taobao’s live broadcast pattern has been more solidified.” Lei Binyi told Sohu Technology. He observed that even if it is Taobao’s head anchor, Spending a lot of money to advertise outside the site, such as WeChat’s Guangdiantong and various other channels.

Recently, Tmall has rarely lowered the threshold for merchants to enter. After April 19, newly opened stores can become official Tmall stores only by passing the 7-month trial operation capability assessment. This is the first time that Tmall has revised its store opening rules since its establishment in 2009.

Where the channel dividend is, where is the brand owner. Its own bottleneck and Douyin Kuaishou’s plundering of merchant resources are increasing the sense of crisis on Taobao and Tmall.

In fact, the Taobao brand has already worked hard in the field of self-broadcasting, and it has become a standard for Taobao live broadcast. However, Lei Binyi pointed out that Taobao’s live broadcast mechanism has defects in store self-broadcasting. “Taobao’s service fee for proxy broadcasts is paid by the hour. Paid, that is, how much is an hour, but Douyin is a cost model of CPS (charged by actual sales volume), which is obviously more effective in motivating anchors.”

QuestMobile’s live e-commerce report in October last year showed that as of September 2020, the proportion of users watching live broadcasts on Kuaishou and Douyin platforms has reached around 80%, and the user habits of live e-commerce have basically formed. However, it is worth noting that the proportion of Kuaishou head KOLs participating in live broadcast is 58.5%, and the proportion of carrying goods is 36.6%. In contrast, the proportion of Douyin head KOLs participating in live broadcast is about 27.5%, and the proportion of carrying goods is 51.2%.

In other words, although Kuaishou has created its image as the “first platform for live streaming e-commerce”, Kuaishou still dominates live entertainment. And more than half of the anchors on Douyin who started live broadcasts for the purpose of bringing goods.

Under the influence of head anchors such as Simba, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya, Hengqiang, the waist and tail anchors began to test the waters in many ways. The person in charge of MCN once told Sohu Technology, “The anchors are studying how to drain traffic more accurately. Taobao does not The method is to provide traffic to the live broadcast room, but Douyin can. The two sides have very different operating methods for the anchors. Therefore, many mid-waist anchors can only test the water in many ways, and a small proportion of them are “out of the country”.”

E-commerce anchors are fleeing Kuaishou and Taobao, and the agency service providers are also seeing the dividends of Douyin.

Chen Jun told Sohu Technology that the service provider of TikTok Lining’s official account used to be mainly engaged in content marketing, but only transformed into an e-commerce agency operation in August last year. “Originally, the company was almost unable to sustain it. After the transformation, it is now one month later. The transaction turnover is about 50 million.” He said that the general trend of brand self-broadcasting will drive the rapid growth of the entire agency operation industry.

On the whole, the basic ideas of Douyin e-commerce, the overall framework of the store, the basic disks of the top merchants and users are all in place. The next decision is whether the wild growth of GMV can last or not, which is the most critical user experience. , And whether internal management can keep up with the speed of business expansion.

An insider of Douyin revealed to Sohu Technology that the two e-commerce departments within Byte are trying to integrate. One is the e-commerce department of the group established in June last year. Before this department was established, Douyin already had one of its subordinates. E-commerce department. And BYTE hopes to put the old e-commerce department under Douyin into the commercialization group, that is, Zhang Lidong’s subordinates.

“This year Douyin is going to engage in e-commerce.” The insider said. After Douyin catches up on the scale of GMV, whether it can reverse the live broadcast e-commerce landscape and carry the imagination of going public, perhaps there will be an answer within the year.