Figure 1. One-year U.S. Treasury Yield-ATFX

It can be seen that before last week, the US short-term debt has been in a downward trend; after the Fed’s interest rate decision, the significant long-term yang line broke through the previous multi-week K-line high. The recent rise in the US dollar index is largely due to the rise in short-term US bond interest rates. The one-year U.S. Treasury’s “low creeping” began on March 23, 2020. During this time, the United States was cutting interest rates on a large scale in response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Up to now, the “low creeping” time has been maintained for 15 months, which is rare. Even if the Fed does not take measures to reduce the size of monthly bond purchases in the second half of the year, market expectations will continue to heat up, which is completely sufficient for the rise in short-term U.S. interest rates. The risk is that the Fed’s decision logic is to “cut interest rates if nothing is resolved”. If there is a black swan incident in the second half of the year, the expectation of reducing the size of bond purchases will no longer exist, and both U.S. Treasury interest rates and the U.S. dollar index will plummet.

Figure 2. Ten-year U.S. Treasury Yield-ATFX

Long-term U.S. bond interest rates have performed poorly. Even when expectations of reducing the size of bond purchases were strongest last week, they only closed the inverted hammer K-line with a long upper shadow. Part of the reason is that the Fed’s monthly debt purchases are mainly long-term bonds, and ten-year U.S. bonds are one of them. The 80 billion monthly bond purchases have pushed up the price of U.S. Treasury bonds and will correspondingly lower U.S. bond interest rates. From this perspective, U.S. bond yields are not entirely determined by the market, and there are certain regulatory attributes. The Fed does not want U.S. interest rates to rise quickly without a strong economic recovery, because this will have a negative impact on the business economy. Figure 3, US dollar index weekly chart-ATFX The dollar index has successfully bottomed, and the support point is at the previous low of 89.18. As can be seen in the figure, the previous high of 93.41 has become the resistance level for this round of rising. Only when this price is effectively broken can the future upside space be fully opened. The channel line in the chart shows that the upper rail suppressed this week’s rise. There is the announcement of the PCE price index in the first quarter of the US on Thursday. If not surprisingly, the published value will be 2.5% higher than the previous value, which will give a certain boost to the US dollar index bulls. In addition, during the first four days of this week, senior Fed officials will make speeches every day. Traders need to pay close attention to their views on labor market and price changes. ATFX Disclaimer : 1, The above analysis only represents the views of analysts. The foreign exchange market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. 2. A TFX will not be responsible for any profit or loss that may be caused by the direct or indirect use or reliance on this information. Source: Financial World Network

background

Investment opportunities What to do with the savings in inflation?

Status: 22.06.2021 12:28 p.m.

Even in times of rising prices and zero interest rates, many Germans have their money in savings books or call money accounts. But if you want to protect your savings from inflation, you need alternatives.

From Lothar Gries, tagesschau.de

Consumer prices in Germany rose by 2.5 percent in May – more than they have been for almost ten years. At the same time, there is practically no more interest on overnight and fixed-term deposits, the most popular form of investment among Germans. Cash is also in great demand. The value of the notes issued by the Bundesbank rose by 9.5 percent last year. A similarly high growth rate was last seen in 2014. At the end of May 2021, banknotes issued by the Bundesbank to the value of 839 billion euros were in circulation, 52 billion or 6.6 percent more than a year earlier. But if you want your money to grow, you have to consider other investments than hoarding cash or putting it on savings accounts. There is no shortage of alternative investment opportunities. The long lucrative federal bonds are no longer one of them. The yields on these securities have fallen below zero since August 2019. Investors who lend money to the German state have to pay for it – a turning point, as they still got a return of five percent at the beginning of the millennium. “Today federal bonds have no place in assets that are designed to maintain or increase in value,” explains Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Deka-Bank, which is part of the savings bank group.

No prospect of rising interest rates

Investors should also not give in to the hope that consumer prices, which have recently risen again, will lead to higher interest rates. Inflation is likely to accelerate further until the end of the year, but the European Central Bank (ECB) has repeatedly emphasized that it will adhere to the zero interest rate policy. The priority is to stimulate the economy again after the corona crisis, said ECB boss Christine Lagarde. In addition, the current rise in inflation is only temporary.

Investments that are considered to be risk-free, such as savings books and fixed-term deposit accounts, no longer offer any prospect of positive returns for the time being. In order for the saved to experience growth, stocks in particular offer themselves as a way out. Fund savings plans, for example, are a good way to get started. Investors pay regular amounts, in many cases from 25 euros upwards, into an investment fund in which various securities are bundled and which is managed by professionals. Alternatively, of course, investors also have the option of taking their money into their own hands and buying shares in individual companies on their own. In the past few years, you couldn’t go wrong when buying technology stocks.

Alternative ETF?

If you don’t dare to do this, but still want to invest in stocks, you can invest your money in a so-called Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). These funds replicate a stock market index (often with so-called derivatives). This can be the German share index (DAX) or other indices such as the US leading index Dow Jones. The performance of an ETF is closely linked to the respective index. As a result, the fees are usually lower than with other funds. Investing in the stock market is of course not without risk: If the index behind an ETF falls because the stocks in it fall, the fund also loses value.

Nevertheless, ETFs are enjoying growing popularity. According to industry experts, there are almost 7,000 of these funds. This is also due to the low interest rate phase. It ensures that more people invest their money in funds than before. Many have done well with this strategy and have achieved better returns than they would have achieved on a call money account. For example, an ETF on the DAX alone has generated a return of 55 percent in the last five years – provided that you kept your nerve at the beginning of the pandemic and did not sell when the markets collapsed by a third in spring 2020.

Gold and open real estate funds

A popular investment, especially in times of crisis, is gold. The corona pandemic has confirmed this again. By early August 2020, the price of a troy ounce (31.1 grams) had risen to an all-time high of $ 2,063, around a third more than at the beginning of the year. But then things went downhill again, to $ 1,684 in March. It is currently $ 1,775. In fact, gold is extremely volatile because the price is mainly driven by demand, because it has no “intrinsic value” like companies do. The precious metal is therefore not considered a reliable investment. There is also the often unsafe storage of bars or coins.

Those who shy away from the capital market and don’t believe in precious metals can also invest their money in real estate funds. They collect capital from investors and invest it in offices, shopping centers, residential buildings or logistics centers. The so-called open real estate funds are particularly popular with private investors. The income from such a fund, i.e. the rental income after deducting costs, is distributed to the owners as profit. With well-managed funds, an annual return of four to five percent can be achieved, a little more than the inflation rate.

Sometimes there is a risk of total loss

But the system has a catch. A minimum holding period of 24 months applies to open-ended real estate funds. An investor must also announce the return of his money to the fund company. Then he will get his system back after twelve months at the earliest. So if you have to get your money at short notice at any time, you should refrain from such investments.

The examples show that there is no shortage of alternatives to the savings book or a federal bond. But if you want to increase your money, you also have to be prepared to take risks. In some cases, for example when purchasing shares, there is even a risk of total loss, as the example of Wirecard recently showed. A look abroad – especially the USA, where far more people own shares than in Germany – shows that long-term wealth can only be built up with investments in the capital market

Five years right to an account Criticism of high basic account fees

Status: 06/18/2021 4:44 p.m.

Everyone has had the right to a basic account for five years. This should help poorer people to get a checking account. It hits hard when banks turn the fee screw in times of negative interest rates. Paying salaries, shopping online, electricity bills – hardly anything works without a checking account. In the past, for example, people without a permanent address or refugees often had a difficult time opening an account. With the Implementation of an EU directive from 2014 The legal situation in Germany changed five years ago: since then, every citizen has been entitled to a so-called basic account. It is intended to give everyone an inexpensive way to conduct banking transactions with a checking account. But the fees for these financial products are increasing – to the displeasure of those affected and the critics. The prerequisite for setting up a basic account is that you are legally resident in the European Union. The account holder receives a bank card and can transfer money. A bank may only reject the application to open a basic account in rare cases, for example if a customer already uses an account with another bank in Germany.

Hundreds of thousands of basic accounts already

According to the latest figures from the financial supervisory authority BaFin, just under 761,500 basic accounts had been opened in Germany by June 2020. However, many institutes are paying dearly for the “Jedermann Accounts”. According to a study by Stiftung Warentest from last December, the range extends from twelve euros to 250 euros per year.

“The success of the basic account is at stake,” warns Julian Merzbacher from the Association of Citizens’ Movement Finanzwende. “Access to an account shouldn’t be a question of the wallet, because it is essential. Other European countries, in which the fees are capped at a low level, show that there is another way.”

Deutsche Bank put in its place

If necessary, the courts have to take action. In the past year the Federal Court of Justice (BGH) ruled in proceedings against Deutsche Bank . A monthly basic price of 8.99 euros and 1.50 euros for a paper transfer as part of a basic account are too high and therefore ineffective, judged the Karlsruhe judges (Az .: XI ZR 119/19). Since then, the bank has had to offer its basic account cheaper.

Fee cap required

In the opinion of Merzbacher’s colleague Michael Findeisen, Germany has only inadequately implemented the EU’s requirements. “The fee regulation urgently needs to be improved,” said the expert to the Protestant press service. The 68-year-old played a key role in shaping the relevant law, as head of division in the Federal Ministry of Finance. Five years later, Findeisen is retired and volunteers for the citizens’ movement Finanzwende.

Findisen demands a binding fee cap from politicians. “It is clear: the banks cannot earn anything with the basic account. But they can cross-finance that with the income from other financial services and products.”

Currency under $ 1.20 How weak is the euro going to be?

Status: 06/18/2021 2:09 p.m.

In the USA there are signs of a turnaround in interest rates, in Europe the key interest rate will probably remain low for a long time to come. That has been burdening the euro for days. How much will the common currency still become cheaper? The prospect of rising interest rates in the US has recently weighed on the euro. The common currency fell in the past few days from rates at 1.22 to below 1.19 US dollars. Experts cited the interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as an explanation for this strong movement. After years of zero interest rate policy, the American monetary authorities had promised interest rate hikes, at least for the longer term. Accordingly, two rate hikes can be expected by 2023.

First of all, the Fed will in all probability cut back its security purchases later in the year, with which it had pushed down long-term interest rates on the bond market in recent years. The expectation of an economic recovery with rising inflation rates alone had pushed the yield on ten-year US government bonds up from around 0.5 percent to just under 1.8 percent since the summer of last year.

Long-term rates still negative

Yields on the German stock market have also risen sharply in recent months, albeit at a significantly lower level to date. The yield on ten-year Bunds is still around minus 0.2 percent. In the low, the interest rate was only around minus 0.67 percent. Despite rising inflation rates in Germany and the euro area, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt unwilling to be, to follow the central bank colleagues in Washington and to consider at least less security purchases in the near future. In May, the inflation rate in the euro zone was 2.0 percent, slightly above the central bank’s price stability target. In Germany they moved Producer prices even rose 7.2 percent in May compared to the previous year and therefore stronger than it has been for almost 13 years. The prices were driven by the sharply rising prices of so-called intermediate goods.

Bundesbank boss for the end of the bond purchases

“In the long run this will work noticeable in consumer prices The economists at Commerzbank said: “A central bank in crisis mode, which, as ECB President Christine Lagarde said in her last press conference, does not even talk about whether a reduction in bond purchases might be necessary. appears well behind the curve in comparison. “In the opinion of the experts, the monetary authorities have thus missed the entry into the exit from the zero interest rate policy.

An opinion that is also shared by the President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann. Weidmann has spoken out in favor of an early end to the trillion dollar bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the pandemic. The focus is on the purchase program called “PEPP” the monetary guardian. “When the emergency for which the PEPP was created is over, it must be ended,” Weidmann told the “Handelsblatt”. But whether Weidmann will prevail is unclear. There are thus signs for the near future that the dollar could retain or even expand its interest rate advantage.

German exporters benefit

For German vacationers who want to spend their free time outside the euro area, that would be bad news – they would have to pay more for foreign currency. The export-oriented German economy, on the other hand, is benefiting from the trend. Last year, just 36 percent of German exports went to the countries of the euro area. And even if you include EU countries with their own currencies such as Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, which has since left the country, the share of exports last year was just over half.

A good sixth of exports even went directly to the USA. In fact, the impact of the dollar rate on German exports is likely to be significantly greater. Because some international currencies are directly linked to the US dollar. These include, for example, the Saudi riyal or the diram of the United Arab Emirates. Both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are countries that traditionally buy and import many German products with the money they earn from oil exports.

Dollar weakness later in the year?

If the US dollar gains strength, German companies have two options. Either they reap additional profits with unchanged prices. Or they react with price cuts in order to gain market share – both attractive prospects for companies.

But at this point in time it seems questionable how long the euro will actually continue to decline. Because for autumn and winter, experts like those at Commerzbank are expecting inflationary dynamics to decline again in the USA. Then “the US dollar euphoria will soon be over”

Ratings at a glance How creditworthy are which countries?

Status: 15.06.2021 01:05 p.m. Credit ratings from the major US rating agencies help determine the interest rates at which a state can borrow money. How do Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s rate the creditworthiness of the countries in the eurozone and other countries? Who gets the top grade, the “Triple-A”? An overview of the current credit ratings from Belgium to Cyprus.

Source: rating agencies / as of June 15, 2021

Source: rating agencies / as of June 15, 2021

background 07/14/2011

Author: The surplus grain of the rich man’s house

The Fed once again held an interest rate meeting.

Of course, the Fed stunned the market once again. After the Fed negotiated interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields soared and the price of gold plummeted. The market exclaimed that Taper is coming, and Taper is coming. …

Suddenly remembered a children’s story.

A papaya was ripe and fell from the tree into the lake, with a grunt, splashing white water. A rabbit heard it, thought it was a monster, and ran away, yelling as he ran, “Run away, come on!” The monkey heard it, and ran along, shouting as he ran, “Everyone, run away, come on!” At this moment, the whole forest was in a commotion, and the animals all ran up, shouting as they ran: “Run for your life, here comes Gudong!” A papaya was ripe and fell from the tree into the lake, with a grunt, splashing white water. A rabbit heard it, thought it was a monster, and ran away, yelling as he ran, “Run away, come on!” The monkey heard it, and ran along, shouting as he ran, “Everyone, run away, come on!” At this moment, the whole forest was in a commotion, and the animals all ran up, shouting as they ran: “Run for your life, here comes Gudong!” What does “Taper” mean?

It means “gradual reduction” in English, and it specifically refers to the Fed’s gradual reduction of its money printing scale (QE), which has brought the so-called “Taper Tantrum” to the financial market.

But to put it bluntly, Taper is just the “gu-dong” that papaya fell into the water.

According to the Fed’s statement and its answers to reporters, the Fed only slightly increased its forecast of economic growth figures and increased its forecast of inflation figures. It did not claim to reduce QE at all. Can’t discuss it?), and didn’t mention any interest rate hikes-but compared to the March meeting on interest rates, in the forecast, the benchmark interest rate in 2023 will be raised by 0.5 percentage points.

Since the US inflation data in May was as high as 5%, which was almost the highest level since 1992, the results of this interest rate meeting were widely interpreted by the market as:

1) To withdraw from easing soon;

2) There will be two interest rate hikes in 2023.

Well, regardless of whether it will withdraw from easing this year, or whether it will actually raise interest rates twice in 2023, the market has begun to anticipate and ferment this matter, and the result that the Fed wants has been achieved.

Because the Fed is the top master of manipulating market expectations.

After the global financial crisis in 2008, the Fed conducted three rounds of QE in six years, and its balance sheet rose from 900 billion U.S. dollars to 4.5 trillion U.S. dollars.

The interest rate meeting in June 2013 was the same as it is now. At that time, the third round of QE was still underway. The then Fed Chairman Bernanke gave clear conditions for reducing QE: when the unemployment rate was approaching 7%.

The results of the meeting on interest rates are also very similar to the structure of this time. The Fed also raised its economic growth expectations and inflation forecasts…

Because the unemployment rate at that time was actually quite close to 7%, and the market at that time also predicted that in December 2013, the probability of the Federal Reserve reducing QE was 80%…

The results of it?

Even if the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.7% in March 2014, the Fed did not see a reduction in QE. By mid-2014, the unemployment rate had fallen to 6.2%, and the Fed began to reduce QE, and the Fed’s balance sheet scale was not large. More time will be added to September 2014 (see the figure below, the dark blue line and the left axis are the U.S. unemployment rate so far in 2004, and the dark red line and the right axis are the size of the Fed’s balance sheet so far in 2004).

As for the interest rate hike after the QE reduction in 2013, it was as far as two years later, and after the interest rate hike was once, there was an interval of two years before the interest rate hike again.

Expected management is greater than actual operation, and the form and sample are greater than the actual tightening.

Everyone must remember:

In today’s era of credit money, no matter which central bank, the monetary policy will always be loose but not tight. As long as it can be loose, it must be loose. Even if the economy is overheated, even if inflation is rampant, interest rate hikes and austerity are going back three steps— —On the contrary, if you see signs of economic downturn, easing and interest rate cuts, it will definitely be like a tiger going down the mountain, and it will be implemented.

Believe it or not, let’s take a look at how aggressive the Fed was in 2020 when the U.S. stock market plummeted:

Within two weeks, cut interest rates urgently;

I feel that the interest rate cut is not enough, so I cut the interest rate directly to 0+ days and the amount is loose;

The amount of easing is not enough, unlimited easing + buying corporate bonds directly.

——There is no lower limit for looseness, and tightness depends on installation.

Someone might say that the US inflation rate has now exceeded 5%. If the Fed does not reduce QE or raise interest rates, how can it be explained to the market?

Who told you that the Fed needs to explain to the market on inflation?

The task of the Fed is to guide market expectations!

As long as the market’s inflation expectations come down, inflation will not be a problem.

The Fed constantly hints to the market that the prices of major commodities plummeted from March to July 2020, so the inflation rate in the corresponding month of 2021 appears to be very serious, but this is temporary. After these few months pass, the inflation rate in the United States will Decline, and, in the future, we will have to reduce QE, we will also raise interest rates, and the inflation rate will definitely fall…

Yes, the Fed printed 100% of the base currency in the past year and increased the broad money by 25%, but the Fed firmly believes that the current inflation in the United States must be temporary!

In fact, because politics is not correct, what the Fed is embarrassed to tell everyone is–

Now, what the United States needs most is inflation!

Moreover, we must let the inflation rate exceed the U.S. Treasury bond yield!

Why do I say that?

Because of US government debt!

Think about it, if you owe one million yuan to someone, you have to pay it back, but you have been borrowing money every year, how should you pay it back?

The best way is inflation. If there is an inflation rate of 100% and the nominal price of your total debt remains the same, then your actual debt burden will be reduced by half!

According to the latest data, the total debt of the US federal government has reached 28.3 trillion US dollars.

As long as inflation occurs, both the US GDP growth and US fiscal revenue in nominal dollars will increase significantly, and the interest that needs to be paid to the national debt is fixed when it is auctioned out. As long as the inflation comes up, the debt The burden will gradually decrease.

The benefits are not only here.

Allowing actual inflation to exceed the yield of Treasury bonds will also help the US government issue new debt and borrow more money.

For example, the U.S. government pays 2% interest on national debt, but the actual inflation has been maintained at the current 5%, which means that the real interest rate is -3%, and the U.S. government is not afraid of borrowing more money because of government debt/ GDP will fall, and America’s fiscal ability to pay is getting higher…

As for the price, the price is of course the people who use dollars all over the world are those who buy bonds.

Someone should ask, the real negative interest rate, what if there are not so many people buying U.S. Treasury bonds?

There is also the Federal Reserve, which directly prints money to buy!

This was originally one of the main purposes of the Fed’s QE!

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, under the buy-buy-buy of the Fed, by April 2021, the total amount of US Treasury bonds held by the Fed has exceeded the US Treasury bonds held by overseas investors.

Therefore, many people think that because of the recent increase in inflation, the Fed will soon withdraw from monetary easing. In fact, the Fed is eager for such inflation to continue for a period of time until the Biden administration almost runs out of borrowing money and no longer needs it. When borrowing money, the Fed will consider really reducing QE or even stopping easing.

Also, because everyone expects that the Fed will withdraw from easing and one big buyer will be missing, the market generally infers that the price of Treasury bonds will fall, so the yield will continue to rise, and many major market players are predicting that U.S. bond yields will rise in the second half of the year. To more than 2%…

However, it is likely that everyone is wrong again!

The graph below is a comparison between the Fed’s balance sheet and the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds from 2006 to date. Since the Fed reduced QE in 2014, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to fall; in 2018, the Fed really began to shrink its balance sheet. , U.S. Treasury bond yields have also fallen (see the two circles in the figure below)…

In other words, the two QE exits since 2008 have proved that each time the so-called QE is reduced or exited, the Fed is just “leading” the public’s expectations. Every time it exits the implementation of QE, either the Treasury bond yield is directly Continue to fall, or Treasury bond yields continue to fall after a short-term rise.

In short, under the manipulation of the Fed, they will definitely keep the yields of treasury bonds at a very low level, and they will surely allow the inflation rate to continue to exceed the yields of treasury bonds, and will definitely reduce the debt burden for the US government…

After all, the Federal Reserve, which claims to protect the value of the U.S. dollar, was originally the world’s largest lie maker!

Despite rising inflation Why the ECB is not raising interest rates

Status: 10.06.2021 8:28 a.m.

Inflation is increasing in many European countries. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank wants to stick to its loose monetary policy. How long can she keep this course? By Klaus-Rainer Jackisch, MR The circular saw is still running. But the little wood that is left is not enough at the front and back. The large warehouse in the North Hessian Baunatal is usually well filled. But wood has been in short supply for weeks. “There has never been anything like it,” says Zimmermann and company owner Peter Hellmuth. The specialist fears further bottlenecks in the summer. Although demand is booming, there could even be short-time working. Because in Corona times there is more handicraft, building and tinkering, but also because the USA and China are buying empty the world market, there is currently too little wood . In April prices were almost 30 percent higher than in the same month last year, and the trend is still increasing, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Also at other raw materials are skyrocketing : Iron, steel and aluminum scrap rose by more than 60 percent, pig iron costs almost a quarter more, and the prices of electronic circuits rose by around 14 percent.

Above all, energy is more expensive

But energy prices climbed the hardest. Imported electricity, which is becoming more and more important because the amount of energy generated from sun, wind and water fluctuates sharply, even rose by 200 percent. People also had to dig deeper into their wallets for electronics and food. Inflation is back. It is coming with great strides. It is currently 2.5 percent in Germany . For the autumn, the Bundesbank and many economists expect inflation rates in this country of over four percent. Such values ​​have not existed for almost three decades. The last time the prices climbed above the four percent mark in 1993. At that time, inflation was 4.5 percent, according to statisticians. The price surge is particularly noticeable in Germany: the return of VAT to the old values ​​and the massive CO2 pricing since the beginning of the year are making themselves felt. The upturn in the economy does the rest: Through successes in vaccinations and easing, the demand for goods and services of all kinds is increasing, while at the same time supply is scarce – all of this is causing prices to go up.

Hardly any compensation through higher wages

Also in Europe: There the inflation rate rose to 2.0 percent in May. In addition to Germany, people in Austria (3.0 percent), Estonia (3.1 percent) and Luxembourg (4.0 percent) in particular have to pay more. All of that hurts, because because of Corona there are rather poor results in the wage rounds and therefore hardly any compensation. This makes price increases even more noticeable. But none of this makes much impression on the European Central Bank (ECB). It is expected that the company’s own forecasts, which will be updated this week, are well above the old estimates. It is also becoming apparent that inflation will by no means abate in the second half of the year as originally expected, but rather, on the contrary, reach new highs. But the monetary authorities in Frankfurt’s Eurotower see no reason to act. For weeks now, the members of the ECB’s Executive Board have repeatedly emphasized that the economy is recovering well, but currently still needs the support of an ultra-loose monetary policy. A repayment of the controversial bond purchases or even a turnaround in interest rates is not even hinted at.

Worried look at the financial markets

Instead, the ECB continues to pump billions from its Corona aid program PEPP into the markets at great speed – currently it is around 80 billion euros per month. This is intended to offer sufficient capital on favorable terms and to keep interest rates low. “The ECB has committed itself to ensuring favorable financing conditions during this phase,” said ECB President Christine Lagarde in Paris last week. This promise will also be kept. In fact, the ECB is not that unhappy about the price surge. The self-imposed inflation target of almost two percent has not been achieved for about ten years because one crisis chases the next. If this is different this year, it could be sold as a great success in your own monetary policy – even if the pendulum swings beyond your own target. In addition, one looks at the financial markets with concern: there share prices, also and precisely because of the ultra-loose monetary policy, have reached a level that has long been decoupled from the real economy in many areas. The central bankers fear that a change in monetary policy could lead to violent reactions and shake the fragile house of cards.

Debt rose sharply

And then there are also the debts: In southern Europe in particular, they have risen again to astronomical heights due to the collapse of tourism in the wake of the coronavirus crisis: Greece, for example, currently has a gross domestic product debt of around 205 percent. This is the highest level in the euro zone and more than during the Greek crisis. Italy, too, is groaning under excessive debts and ailing banks. An increase in the interest rate would not be right. Italy’s central bank chief Ignazio Visco is therefore particularly busy when it comes to sticking to the current monetary policy: “Large and sustained increases in interest rates are not justified by the current economic outlook and will be countered,” he said at the annual meeting of the Banca d´Italia in Rome. In fact, a new debt crisis in the euro zone, triggered by rising interest rates, would be the last thing the monetary union could use now. The central bank governors from Germany and the Netherlands, for example, cannot do much against all of these arguments. They have been calling for an exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy for a long time, but they are in the minority.

Criticism of the policy of the US Federal Reserve

So there are many reasons why the majority of monetary watchdogs prefer to keep their feet still and save themselves over the summer. A change in monetary policy at the council meeting this week is not expected, not even with a hint that it might be imminent. Only the pace of bond purchases could perhaps be slowed down a bit. But that too is unsafe. How long the ECB can continue on its course, however, also depends on the world around it. In the USA, for example, where the inflation rate is now 4.5 percent and the economy because of the two trillion corona aid program of the Biden government is slowly starting to overheat , criticism of the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy is growing louder. Economists such as the former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard or the leading economic advisor of Allianz, Mohamed Aly El-Erian, fear that the corona crisis could have changed the structure of the economy. It is therefore not at all clear that inflation will recede again quickly. If the central banks act too late and then abruptly, this could lead to upheavals in the financial markets and a recession. The next few months are therefore likely to be uncomfortable for the European monetary authorities. And also for the people in the euro zone. Because one thing is clear: it will be even more expensive.

Container charges increased more than 4 times According to Drewry World, the container freight rate announced on May 27, 2021 for a 40-foot container from Shanghai (China) to Rotterdam (Netherlands) has increased to USD 10,174, up 3.1% from a week earlier and up 485% from a year ago. The global container freight rate index (which includes eight major routes) was up 2%, to $6,257 from a week earlier and 293% higher from a year ago. Freight rates are at their highest levels since 2011. Container freight rates are rising because demand is outstripping supply due to a shortage of 20- and 40-foot containers. In the context of consumer demand and the price of basic raw materials, commodities increased sharply, leading many businesses to increase stockpiling of goods, disruption from the congestion of the Suez Canal at the end of March 2021. Port congestion is causing delays and higher costs for shippers, while ocean carriers enjoy sky-high profits. According to the chairman of a seafood processing company, it is estimated that the freight rate of container ships from Vietnam to Europe has increased more than four times, from 1,700-1,800 USD/container to 7,000-8,000 USD/container compared to before the epidemic occurred. out. Freight rates to the East Coast of the United States have increased more than 1.7 times, from 4,500 USD to 8,000 – 10,000 USD/container. Opportunities are not spread evenly On the listed stock exchange today, the number of enterprises providing shipping services is relatively small. Enterprises such as Hai An Transport and Loading Joint Stock Company (code HAH), PetroVietnam Transportation Joint Stock Corporation (code PVT), Vietnam Shipping Joint Stock Company (code) can be mentioned immediately. VOS)… The shipping market share is still mainly in the hands of foreign enterprises. At PVT, in recent years, the business has continuously pursued a fleet rejuvenation strategy to increase business efficiency, by the end of 2020 owns a fleet of 34 ships. The company operates mainly in the field of transporting crude oil, oil products, transporting LPG…, products related to the parent company is the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN). Therefore, PVT is not able to decide on freight prices, leading to stable gross profit margin and no growth, although oil prices and freight rates have fluctuated in recent years. At VOS, as of December 31, 2020, the company owns a fleet of 12 ships with a total tonnage of 405,112 dwt, including 8 dry and bulk cargo ships; 2 product tankers and 2 container ships. In addition, the enterprise also periodically leases a number of ships to maintain regular fleet operations of 12-14 ships. VOS’s fleet operates regularly in Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, West Africa, Australia, South America… However, the disadvantage of VOS is that the fleet is quite old and has not been renewed due to its financial potential. limited, while import-export businesses often require larger shipments and prefer new generation fleets. HAH owns this advantage, when continuously investing in new ships from 2014 up to now. The Company’s fleet includes 8 ships, serving both domestic and international routes. At the shareholders’ meeting in 2021, HAH’s Board of Directors shared that they continue to plan to invest in more fleets to increase the number of domestic flights, and maintain and develop 2 import and export cargo trips to Hong Kong and Singapore. . In the first quarter of this year, HAH recorded revenue of 359 billion dong, profit after tax of 85.5 billion dong, up 28.4% and 174% respectively over the same period last year. Gross profit margin increased sharply from 19.2% to 27%. After the first 3 months of the year, HAH has completed up to 54.1% of the year’s profit plan. The business said that profit growth was positive in the first quarter of 2021 due to the fact that sea transport activities have started with positive signs and increased transportation demand from the last 6 months of 2020. Along with the company’s investment in the HA View vessel in August 2020, the output of Hai An fleet increased by more than 50% compared to the same period last year. The increase in fleet volume leads to an increase in the output of port operations and depots. Besides, the increase in freight rates and the decrease in raw material prices also had a positive impact on profits.

The price is 3 times cheaper, no owner needed Specifically, the best-selling cheap 4G SIMs on online markets are usually VinaPhone’s D500, VD149 SIM, Viettel’s V90, V120 SIM, Vietnamobile’s unlimited 4G monthly SIM card or MobiFone’s MDT250A SIM. These are cheap packages, usually in the form of a 1-year package that does not need to be recharged. The convenience of these SIM lines also lies in the fact that users do not need to register the subscriber’s own owner, just buy it and perform the activation operation, the SIM will always be used without the owner’s information. Cheap 4G SIMs that don’t need to be registered are sold widely on online markets. About the price, the same package that the carrier collects monthly from prepaid or postpaid users, these cheap 4G SIMs have cheaper monthly rates, even without monthly payments, just buy SIM card can be used continuously for 12 months. For example, with Viettel’s V120 package, this network operator collects a monthly fee of 120,000 VND per month from registered users, but when using a cheap 4G SIM on the network market, the price of this package is only 90,000 VND per month. month. Deeper reduction can include SIM VD149 of VinaPhone. Instead of paying 149,000 VND per month like a regular SIM, users of cheap 4G SIMs buying on the online market only have to pay a one-time payment of about 680,000 VND to buy a SIM, which can be used for 12 months. This price is equivalent to more than 56,000 VND a month, nearly 3 times cheaper than the price offered by the network operator for the same package. According to the advertisement of online merchants, a cheap 4G SIM is a type of SIM suitable for technology car drivers, students, and users who need to use 4G continuously with large capacity and cheap price. A quick survey shows that the price of this type of SIM ranges from less than 100,000 VND to about 700,000 VND depending on the package and network operator. After ordering a cheap 4G SIM above, Zing quickly receive goods and use SIM immediately, no need to register any subscription information. When looking up subscriber information, the system from the network operator returns information that the subscriber owner is a person named Long in Tra Vinh with the accompanying CCCD number. Also according to the seller, users can send their CCCD information to register the owner for peace of mind to use the SIM for a long time. Share with Zing , a telecommunications expert said that in addition to the risk of being fined for using junk SIMs, buyers and users of non-original SIM cards are also likely to be scammed, buying unusable SIMs such as end. “Besides, when sending information to register the SIM owner purchased online, users are also likely to have their information stolen to register for other non-original SIMs. Most likely cheap 4G SIMs sold on the Internet. The network is also pre-registered using the information of previous customers,” he said. Strongly scan for junk SIM In order to have a “clean” database to deploy new services, the authorities and network operators are stepping up the cleaning of telecommunications junk, including spam SIMs, spam messages and spam calls. Previously, the Ministry of Information and Communications (TT & TT) asked the carriers to directly connect the database of subscriber information registration with the Department of Telecommunications. In addition, develop and apply criteria to prevent suspicious activity on the distribution channel such as not allowing activation at night, activation frequency exceeding 1 subscriber/minute, 100 subscribers/day, registration Sign more than 3 subscribers/1 number of papers. The Ministry of Information and Communications and network operators are stepping up the search for junk SIM and other telecommunications waste. Photo: Ngo Minh. Also according to the regulator, the carriers also deployed an artificial intelligence (AI) matching tool to identify portraits and documents using artificial intelligence (AI) across the entire distribution channel to prevent the use of documents. invalid, use photos instead of real people… Network operators including Viettel, VNPT and MobiFone also offer strong solutions to combat spam such as stopping the sale of network adapters at authorized dealers, stopping the right to connect subscriber numbers of authorized dealers from June 1. 2020. Instead, businesses will focus on selling SIMs and registering subscriber information at their telecommunications service providers. According to the provisions of Clause 1, Article 2 of Decree 49, the act of using someone else’s documents (even if they are lent) or transferring the registered SIM card to another person for use without re-signing the contract will be subject to administrative fines up to 500,000 VND. In addition, according to the Department of Telecommunications, when there are violations of the law, cases related to mobile subscriber numbers are used by individuals or organizations in the name of the subscriber, but not directly but to be used by the person who violates the law, the person in the name of the subscriber is responsible for explaining and proving his innocence when requested by the authorities, even having to bear joint criminal responsibility. if this violation causes serious consequences.

In addition to the preferential policies such as room discounts, including airport shuttle and laundry services, drinking water gifts, buffet discounts, spa …, this series of tourism stimulus programs are also introduced. special experience packages, suitable for new trends such as “travel in place”, “travel safe and healthy”. A series of 3-5 star hotels across the country offer preferential rates up to 65%. Photo: Quynh Danh. At the recent tourism link program in Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Binh and Thua Thien – Hue provinces, provincial leaders also said that many hotels and resorts will reduce by 20-50% of room and service rates, At the same time, gift vouchers to use services for in-house guests These programs extend to the end of the summer tourist season to attract people to travel. The units said that the capacity of the room is currently increasing strongly, at some times the room is closed. Food services, restaurants, and bars in these properties have also recorded positive signals, especially for the holidays April 30 to May 1. Noted that since April, the demand for tourism has increased at the end of the week, mainly in the family group. With the upcoming 4-day holiday season, in addition to the selection of package tours, the need to book individual services such as self-designed tours, hotel combo, airline tickets, hotel shuttle, private car … increase. Mr. Nguyen Xuan Binh, Deputy Director of Da Nang City Department of Tourism, said he would focus on developing potential and trend-appropriate tourism types such as MICE tourism, ecotourism, community tourism … Therefore, in addition to stimulating accommodation, the locality also has free tickets to tourist destinations such as Ngu Hanh Son, Da Nang museum, Museum of Cham Sculpture, Museum of Fine Arts until the end of this year. “We aim to attract about 3.4-4.6 million domestic visitors in 2021, especially during the holidays of April 30 to May 1 and summer from April to September 2021, 12/2021. In addition, it is to bring the image of Da Nang city to become the most sought-after and chosen destination by tourists in 2021 through tourism information sites ”, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Binh affirmed. Meanwhile, Hue, Quang Nam reduce 50% of the entrance fee for travel agencies to bring tourists to visit cultural heritage sites of the ancient capital of Hue, Hoi An ancient town, the birth reserve area. world book of Cu Lao Cham, historical and cultural relic of Bay Mau coconut forest, My Son temple tower. And Quang Binh also offers incentives for adventure tourism products in the area. In Ho Chi Minh City, Ms. Nguyen Thi Anh Hoa – Director of the Department of Tourism – said that she would launch a stimulus program “Ho Chi Minh City people travel to Ho Chi Minh City” and many communication activities to promote with the theme ” Ho Chi Minh City – Lively experience “. She emphasized on introducing new, unique and long-standing culinary and tourism destinations, including a series of new tours revolving around stories about Saigon – Ho Chi Minh City. Share with Zing , travel businesses recognize that the domestic tourism market has had many prosperity, and is forecast to explode during the holidays of April 30 to May 1 and the summer.

When the Covid-19 pandemic first broke out, the vaccine was still just a ray of light at the end of the tunnel. The term “community immunity” is to denote the end of the epidemic. Community immunity means that when enough Americans are protected from the virus, the pathogen is eliminated, New York Times said. Today, more than half of all adults in the United States receive at least one dose of the vaccine. But vaccination rates are declining, and there is consensus among scientists and public health experts that public immunity cannot be achieved, at least in the near future, and perhaps never. hours. They came to the conclusion that the virus could become a controllable threat that will continue to spread in the US for many years to come. It still causes flare-ups with hospitalizations and deaths, but on a smaller scale. Depends on the strain’s ability of the virus How much smaller future outbreaks will be and the number of cases and deaths is uncertain. It depends on how many countries in the world are vaccinated, and more importantly, how the virus evolved. Viruses are evolving too quickly. The new strains spread very quickly. Meanwhile, the immunization speed is too slow. That makes the expectation of community immunity even more distant. The United States is one of the countries with the highest rates of Covid-19 vaccination in the world. Photo: New York Times. Experts believe that vaccinating high-risk groups will be crucial to limit the size of new outbreaks. “The virus is unlikely to go away, but we are doing all we can to see if it is likely to cause only mild infections,” said Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta, USA. said. To date, experts still cannot be sure what percentage of the population has anti-Covid-19 antibodies. Even for people with antibodies, experts cannot be sure of their immunity to new strains. Dr Anthony S. Fauci, the leading adviser to the Joe Biden administration on Covid-19, admits the change in thinking among experts. “We stopped using the term community immunity. I said, vaccinate a sufficient number of people, the level of infection will drop,” he said. Why is community immunity difficult to achieve When the corona virus begins to spread globally in early 2020, many experts believe that public immunity is the key to escaping the pandemic. That is when enough people have acquired immunity, including through natural infection or vaccination, when the virus will run out of people to infect and go away on its own. 30% of the US population is reluctant to get the Covid-19 vaccine. Photo: New York Times. The concept of public immunity has become a tacit target in many countries, including the United States. Initially, the threshold for achieving public immunity is 60-70% of the infected population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, believe that the United States can achieve public immunity before vaccines become available. But when the vaccine started to be distributed, this threshold estimate began to increase. Initial estimates were made based on the spread of the original virus. Variant B.117 – first discovered in the UK – was up to 60% more infectious than the original strain. Experts estimate the new threshold to 80%. If new strains continue to grow and spread, or if scientists find vaccinated people can still transmit the virus, the threshold calculation may need to be revised again. In addition, recent polls show that about 30% of the US population is afraid to be vaccinated. “Theoretically we could get an immunization rate of 90% of the population, but in reality it’s very difficult,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. While vaccination resistance is the main reason why the United States cannot achieve public immunity, it is not the main reason. Community immunity is often seen as a national target, but it’s a vague concept in a country as large as the United States. On a global scale, this possibility becomes even more distant. Immunization is still the key Dr. David M. Morens, senior advisor to Dr. Fauci, said community immunity can vary with population size, human behavior and many other factors. A small outbreak in a low vaccination area could spill over and hit an area where the majority of the population was vaccinated. Immunization remains the key to dealing with the epidemic. Photo: New York Times. At the same time, the connections between the countries of the world, especially when the travel restriction is reduced, underscores the urgency of protection, not only for Americans but for other countries as well. Any new strain of Covid-19 that arises in the world will eventually come to America. At that time, the vaccination rate is the decisive factor for the protection level of the community with the new strains. Many parts of the world lag far behind the United States in immunization. Less than 2% of Indians are vaccinated and less than 1% in South Africa, according to data New York Times . “We will not achieve public immunity as nations, states, even cities, until we have immunity in all populations,” Lauren Ancel Says Meyers, director of the Covid Modeling Organization, University of Texas. By focusing on vaccinating the most at-risk groups, the US has reduced its mortality rate compared to before. If vaccination rates continue to increase over time, the corona virus may become seasonal, similar to the flu. The biggest challenge facing health professionals is convincing people to vaccinate. Many Americans remain skeptical of the vaccine’s effectiveness. Another group lacked access to vaccines, such as homeless people, migrant workers, or certain communities of color. That makes the goal of achieving community immunity even more difficult. The mentality of the vast majority of people is that they want to see someone else embrace something, before they’re willing to try it. Emphasizing the benefits of vaccination may become more effective than the fictional idea of ​​herd immunity. “That will resonate with people more than the elusive concept that experts are still trying to come up with,” said Mary Politi, a specialist in health and health communication, University of Washington. Experts also recommend increasing vaccination rates for children, even babies. Because over time, if there aren’t enough people vaccinated, new strains can develop and disrupt the vaccine’s ability to protect itself.

This fake website used logos and was designed with many colors that are quite similar to the official website of Viettel, causing many customers to confuse that this is the official website. Interface of fake Viettel website to sell 4G SIM cards. At the bottom of the website, the operator is also specified as Viettell Trade and Import-Export State Company Limited. Business registration number 0102831022 by the Department of Planning and Investment of Hanoi for the first time on 25/01/2006. In which, word Viettel is written with 1 letter “l”. Besides, while Viettel Group has changed the whole brand identity, this fake website still uses the old corporate brand identity. “The Vietnam Counterfeit Information Processing Center warns the online community not to use the service of this fake website. The case will be transferred to the authorities for consideration and handling in accordance with the law”, the unit this said. Recently, on many online markets, groups about SIM cards recently appeared to advertise for 4G SIM cards with up to 1 billion GB of high-speed capacity with a fee of less than 100,000 VND. Exchange with Zing MobiFone representative affirmed that all posts on social networks related to the distribution of 4G SIM cards with a capacity of up to 1 billion GB with low rates are scams. Currently, this network operator does not have any SIM types and packages like the ads above. The representative of the operator affirmed that users should not buy SIM from the above objects as well as recommending that customers can refer to the most accurate products and services at MobiFone stores as well as through main sales channels. other business formula. With the use of unknown SIMs as above, the operator representative said that users may have the possibility of leaking personal information or buying a SIM that cannot be used even after paying full payment for the object.

The pricing of the GrabCar Economy package is being tested Many information shows that Grab Vietnam may be about to launch a new GrabCar service. Grab’s new package is called GrabCar Economy. According to the description, this service is for passengers wishing to move GrabCar with basic requirements and the cost of saving about 10% more than normal GrabCar service. Currently, this service is being tested to a number of driver partners. In a statement sent to drivers, Grab said testing the new service will help drivers gain new passengers for more opportunities to increase their income. At the same time, the new service will not affect existing Grabcar services. “GrabCar Economy service will not be automatically activated for all partners, only priority will be given to those in need and quickly register the service”, said Grab’s notice. The fare of GrabCar Economy is 25,000 VND for the minimum of the first 2 km and 8,500 VND / km for the next. GrabCar service prices are respectively VND 27,000 and VND 9,500. The fare is cheaper, but the surcharges (night surcharge, platform fee, stop surcharge surcharge) and discounts are the same as for GrabCar. Many GrabCar drivers reported receiving information about the new service trial implementation from Grab. However, GrabCar Economy is still in beta and it is not clear when it will hit the market. The service name is also displayed on the user’s application, but the user is still unable to book a vehicle. This service is already available on the app, but the user can’t book a car yet The launch of a cheaper package will help Grab expand more customer segments, especially customers who want to travel with more reasonable prices and do not have high requirements for vehicle types. This policy can help this ride-hailing company expand its market share by getting more customers from other apps or traditional taxis. This can make the market race increasingly fierce and the opportunities for new applications to enter the market will narrow, if there is not enough financial capacity to compete.

Regarding the tariff, these 4G SIMs are advertised only need to pay 25,000 – 50,000 VND per month. This is a very cheap fee for 1 billion GB of 4G high-speed capacity. Currently, carriers sell popular 4G packages at VND 70,000 / month with a capacity of no more than 4 GB. Posts about 4G SIMs have 1 billion GB of high-speed capacity per month and cheap rates are rampant on internet markets. Contact one end of each selling SIM type, Zing receive a quote of 99,000 VND for the SIM in which the package has not been activated, activate it by itself when receiving the SIM or 150,000 VND for the activated SIM, only use it. Also as noted, all 1 billion GB 4G SIM card advertising posts use MobiFone’s SIM embryo image. Exchange with Zing The representative of MobiFone confirmed that all posts on social networks related to the distribution of 4G SIM cards with a capacity of up to 1 billion GB with low rates are scams. Currently, this network operator does not have any SIM types and packages like the ads above. The representative of the operator affirmed that users should not buy SIM from the above objects as well as recommending that customers can refer to the most accurate products and services at MobiFone stores as well as through main sales channels. other business formula. With the cases of using the SIM of unknown origin as above, the representative of the carrier said that the user may have the possibility of leaking personal information or buying a SIM that cannot be used even after paying full payment for the object. In addition, the Telecommunications Department said that according to the provisions of Clause 1, Article 2 of Decree 49, the acts of using papers of other people (including being loaned) or transferring their registered SIMs to others to use. Failure to re-enter the contract will be subject to an administrative fine of up to 500,000 VND. In addition, when there are illegal acts, cases related to mobile phone numbers, which are held by the individual or organization under the name of the subscriber, but not directly used by the operator, but to the operator. violating the law of use, the person under the name of the subscriber owner is responsible for explaining and proving his innocence when requested by the authorities, even jointly liable for criminal action if this act Causing serious consequences.