In fact, 10 years ago, Biden, who was still the Vice President of the United States, had a face-to-face meeting with Putin, then Russian Prime Minister, in Moscow. At that time, Biden stated that the United States hoped to “reset” US-Russian relations in a way that reflects the common interests of the two countries.

Now, the two will sit at the negotiating table again. But this time, it seems “impossible” for the two sides to make a fundamental breakthrough in the low-point Russia-US relationship through just a summit of leaders.

Data map: On March 10, 2011, Putin and Biden met in Moscow, Russia.

“Old rivals” confront again,

These issues will be put on the negotiating table…

At 13:00 on June 16th, Geneva time (19:00 Beijing time), the Russian-US leaders summit will officially begin.

According to the Russian President’s Assistant Ushakov, Putin and Biden’s talks will consist of a small-scale talk and two large-scale talks, during which there will be a coffee break.

As for how long the talks will last, Ushakov said, “It all depends on the situation of the discussion, the mood of the two presidents, and what issues will take longer than we planned.”

A source familiar with the preparations for the US-Russia summit said that the negotiations are planned to last for nearly five hours.

In addition, according to the warm-up and release of the United States and Russia, the topics of this meeting are very broad, involving bilateral relations, strategic stability, arms control, conflict mediation in hotspots, counter-terrorism, new crown epidemic, network security, human rights, environmental protection and other fields.

Data map: US President Biden.

The meeting at the lowest point of US-Russian relations,

“Tune the door” dropped again and again

On the eve of the summit, U.S.-Russian relations continued to be tense, and sanctions and war of words became almost normal. Putin and Biden have said recently that US-Russian relations are at the “lowest point in recent years.”

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from Chinanews.com that US-Russian relations are in a “more dangerous situation”, which is the main reason for the holding of the “Publish Meeting.”

Putin has said that the purpose of this meeting is to improve bilateral relations; Biden also said that the meeting is aimed at seeking “stability” and “predictability” in the relationship between the two parties. However, the United States and Russia continued to release negative messages before the summit.

In response, Sun Chenghao, an assistant researcher at the U.S. Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, explained that for the United States, the “anti-Russian and hate-Russian” sentiment in the United States has not dissipated, although Biden does not have the burden of former President Trump’s “Russian gate” , But after he came to power, including accusing Russia of interfering in the U.S. election, accusing Russia of participating in hacker attacks on the United States, etc., “there is no way for Biden to show too soft diplomacy to Russia.”

“Russia is actually the same,” Sun Chenghao said. Because the United States has always imposed pressure on Russia’s diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions, it is impossible to ease the United States under Russia’s current governance model. Russia’s domestic politics It also determines that Putin cannot overly show favor to Biden.

However, many parties predict that the United States and Russia will reach cooperation on non-core interests, including climate change issues and the fight against the new crown epidemic. Zhang Hong said, “The United States and Russia may reach a certain consensus in these areas. I think it is the main purpose of this meeting to create or resume such a dialogue through non-core issues.”

Data map: Russian President Putin.

See Putin at the last stop of the European trip,

Biden is cheering himself up?

The meeting between Biden and Putin in Geneva was the last stop of Biden’s European tour. Prior to this, he has attended the G7 summit, NATO summit and the US-Europe summit.

In Zhang Hong’s view, “allies first, competitors second”, this order is correct.

“Through the three summits, Biden and Putin will meet with strong alliance diplomacy support. In fact, the United States represents the Western camp and the Russian dialogue, so that it is in regional security issues, regional economic cooperation issues, ideological and In terms of values, there is at least the so-called “voice of the alliance”, which transcends the United States itself and partially represents the European position.” Zhang Hong pointed out.

Sun Chenghao also said that such an itinerary was “well-designed.” If Biden had contact with Putin in advance, first of all he had no bottom; second, Biden was also worried that European allies would think that the United States and Russia would adopt this kind of “over-the-top diplomacy” approach to reach some arrangements that are not conducive to Europe. It is also unfavorable to consolidate transatlantic relations.

“Dialogue” is the best result?

Russia and the United States may find it difficult to achieve breakthroughs on key issues

As early as 1985, the leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union held a summit in Geneva, and that meeting was regarded as a turning point for the two countries to walk out of the Cold War. However, the outside world is generally not optimistic about the outcome of this summit.

Zhang Hong pointed out that, first of all, the United States and Russia have major differences over the Navaline incident, which is a “red line” belonging to Russia. Russia has always objected to the direct interference of the United States and the West in Russia’s internal democratic and political affairs. Secondly, there is the “security red line.” The frequent activities and forward deployments of NATO countries headed by the United States in the Balkan Peninsula and the Black Sea region threaten the security of western Russia.

Sun Chenghao also mentioned a more specific contradiction between the United States and Russia-the issue of sanctions. What Russia is most concerned about economically is when the United States can lift the sanctions. But first, the “anti-Russian hatred” sentiment in the United States is soaring. It is impossible for Congress to lift sanctions against Russia in this state, and the Biden administration has at least not much bargaining chip in sanctions.

In general, experts predict that this summit will hardly allow both parties to achieve breakthroughs on key issues.

Sun Chenghao pointed out that there will be some partial improvements in the atmosphere of the United States and Russia; this meeting will allow everyone to have “a more stable expectation” for the relationship between the United States and Russia. Zhang Hong said that although the summit cannot achieve a breakthrough, it does not mean that the United States and Russia will not be able to achieve regular dialogue in the future. Once the regular mechanism of such a major power is restored, it will be very beneficial to Russia and will help Russia break the West’s diplomatic isolation.

“The two leaders will be arguing about many things, but the dialogue will continue.” Alexander Fushbo, the ambassador to Russia in the administration of former US President George W. Bush, pointed out that this is “the best one can think of.” Happening”. (Finish)

China’s anti-sanctions law Another setback for relationships

Status: 16.06.2021 10:30 a.m.

With the anti-sanctions law, China has created an instrument against foreign companies. Anyone who adheres to EU or US penalties against Beijing faces retribution. The industry is unsettled. From Steffen Wurzel, ARD studio Shanghai Many foreign business representatives see the new anti-sanctions law as a further setback for the relationship between Europe and China. As usual, the European Chamber of Commerce, the largest lobbying association of foreign companies in the People’s Republic, spoke up. The law continues to politicize dealings with China, so the criticism. “Basically, it ranges from uncertainty to shock,” said Chamber President Jörg Wuttke, describing the reactions of the member companies.

“Sovereignty inviolable”

With the new anti-sanctions law, the communist leadership in Beijing can punish foreign companies in the future; For example, if these sanctions follow, for example, the EU or the USA, which are directed against human rights violations in China. This could affect the textile industry, for example: If the EU should decide to sanction cotton companies from the Xinjiang region because there are strong indications of forced labor there, then China’s leadership could say the other way around to foreign textile and sporting goods manufacturers: You are only allowed to continue in China Do business if you specifically use Xinjiang cotton.

07/30/2020

“With this law, China shows that the sovereignty, the dignity, the core interests and the development interests of the People’s Republic are inviolable”, the constitutional lawyer Li Qingming of the State Chinese Academy for Social Studies defended the measure on the television channel CCTV. The state defends all of this. “We are resolutely opposed to the hegemonic striving and power politics of the West.”

Legal security for the government

Foreign observers in China criticized the fact that the law leaves much in the dark. The whole thing is “nebulous,” said a European diplomat ARD . It is clear, however, that the anti-sanctions law will not change much in the matter. Because the People’s Republic is not a constitutional state, and even without a legal basis, the communist leadership has repeatedly punished foreign companies and even entire states in the past. With the new law, however, the government can now deal with uncomfortable foreign actors in a supposedly legally secure manner.

March 22, 2021

“Text kept very vague”

The President of the European Chamber of Commerce, Wuttke, called the law a new “toolkit” for the government. “You can worry when you see the text. The text is – typically Chinese – very vague. So you could interpret everything into it,” he said. The draft law, which the members only saw as a finished law, includes very large circles. Even family members and subcontractors could be punished.

02.12.2020

The passing of the anti-sanctions law has created a lot of uncertainty among foreign companies in China. But there are also other voices. The head of a German middle class center in Kunshan near Shanghai said the ARD : Many German companies with which he has to do take note of such news calmly. According to the motto: The decisions of the state leadership in Beijing cannot be changed anyway.

EU-US summit Brussels and Biden – the sticking points

Status: 15.06.2021 2:04 p.m. Subsidies, punitive tariffs or relations with Beijing – the European Union and the USA are still fighting over a whole range of explosive problems after the change of power in Washington. An overview. The United States and the European Union are clearly trying to improve their relations again after the Trump presidency. Disputes in economic and geopolitics have been simmering for years. The new US President Joe Biden is as tough on some issues as his predecessor Donald Trump. On other questions, however, he showed a willingness to compromise in advance. When he meets EU leader Ursula von der Leyen today, these issues will be the main focus:

Subsidy dispute over Airbus and Boeing

For 17 years, the EU and the US had been fighting because they accused each other of improperly subsidizing their aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing. Since Biden took office, there was a kind of armistice until July 11th. In the run-up to the summit, both sides had hoped to be able to resolve this dispute. In fact, the EU and US reached an agreement at today’s meeting. There is a breakthrough on the subject, said EU Commission President von der Leyen. This will open a new chapter in relationships – with cooperation instead of legal disputes. During Trump’s tenure, the United States had received permission from the World Trade Organization (WTO) to impose punitive tariffs of $ 7.5 billion on goods and services from the EU. Airbus aircraft were subject to a tax of 15 percent. A year later, Brussels also received WTO approval to impose punitive tariffs on US imports totaling four billion dollars.

October 18, 2019

Punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum

At the meeting between Biden and the EU leaders, the trade conflict over steel and aluminum will also come on the table. The commission hopes that the guest from Washington will agree to lift the punitive tariffs of 25 percent on European steel exports to the USA by December 1st. After Trump was voted out of office, Brussels decided not to raise its tariffs on whiskey, jeans or Harley-Davidson motorcycles as planned on June 1. Now it is up to the USA to turn words into deeds, says Deputy EU Commission President Valdis Dombrovskis. Trump had accused the EU of unfair trade practices and imposed punitive tariffs on imports in this area in June 2018. As a result, European steel exports to the USA rose by 25 percent and exports of aluminum by ten percent.

05.03.2021

Digital tax and data security

Brussels also sees a need for discussion regarding the taxation of digital content from US technology companies such as Google, Apple, Amazon and Facebook. The EU accuses companies of skilfully shifting their sales and profits to avoid tax payments in the EU. A Europe-wide tax for digital corporations has therefore been discussed in the EU for years. France and other EU countries have already introduced national digital taxes. In the meantime, both sides within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have agreed to start negotiations on the taxation of digital content. Brussels and Washington are also looking for a new agreement to enable the exchange of personal data from the EU to the US. This is important for the business models of the US digital corporations. The European Court of Justice overturned the so-called Privacy Shield Agreement last year because it did not adequately protect European data from access by US authorities and secret services.

11/25/2020

Further consideration for Nord Stream 2?

The German-Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, which is supposed to double the capacity of Russian deliveries through the Baltic Sea, could also cause some tension at the meeting. She wasn’t just a thorn in Trump’s side. Biden also rejects the almost finished project – but obviously does not want to jeopardize the transatlantic partnership, which has just recovered. The US fear that Moscow has a means of political leverage in the pipeline. The planned start of Nord Stream 2 was delayed by US sanctions under Trump. In a gesture to Berlin at the end of May, Biden’s government decided not to impose sanctions on the operating company Nord Stream 2 AG and its German managing director. Washington wanted to create space for talks with the federal government.

analysis 05/20/2021

Relations with China

As far as relations with China are concerned, things seem to have calmed down a bit. The fact that the EU reached an investment protection agreement with Beijing without waiting for Biden’s inauguration to coordinate with the new US president was clearly disapproved in Washington. There one expects more support from the Europeans against the Chinese rival. The EU has since put the deal with China on hold and is unequivocally opposed to unfair trade practices and human rights abuses. After the EU imposed sanctions on the situation of the Muslim Uyghur minority in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, Beijing responded with sanctions against EU politicians and scientists. The European Parliament then refused to ratify the agreement. With information from Matthias Reiche, ARD-Studio Brussels

07/30/2020

Speaking at a regular press conference on the afternoon of June 15, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian affirmed that the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia in the new era is the relationship between China and Russia. comprehensive, regardless of any changes. Cooperation between the two parties has no limits. He also stressed that any attempt to sabotage Sino-Russian relations would be doomed to failure. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian. (Photo: Reuters) The Chinese side’s statement came after Russian President Putin’s speech to the US media, affirming satisfaction at Russia-China relations “reaching an unprecedented height”, as well as appreciation for the fact that the two sides have reached an unprecedented height. The party maintains a high level of trust and cooperation in the fields of politics, economics, science and technology, military technology, etc., while recognizing that the Russia-US relationship is currently at a low level. the most in many years. In the words of a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Beijing and Moscow are “really united as mountains, the friendship is unbreakable”. The two countries have overcome the challenge of unexpected changes in the international situation and established a model model of a new type of relationship between great powers. Mr. Trieu Lap Kien said that in just 1 month, the two countries will celebrate the 20th anniversary of the signing of the “Treaty of friendship and cooperation between China and Russia”. This is an event of special significance in the relations between the two countries and will promote Sino-Russian cooperation on a higher starting point, broader scope and deeper level. He emphasized: “Real gold is not afraid of fire, we also advise those who are looking for ways to divide China-Russia relations that any attempt to destroy Sino-Russian relations will not be realized. . Hopefully these people won’t go too far down the road of zero-sum games and group political confrontation.” Immediately before these statements of the Chinese side, the G7 and NATO Summit simultaneously issued statements criticizing China and for the first time naming Beijing as a security threat and a serious challenge. system. Recently, Russian Ambassador to China Andrey Denisov, when responding to Chinese media, once affirmed that “it will not happen” that Russia separates from China and approaches the US when the Biden administration applies the strategy ” somewhat soften relations with Russia” to focus on dealing with China, according to him, “this view is too short-sighted”.

US President Joe Biden is determined to improve relations with European allies. (Source: Reuters)

Former President Donald Trump changed America – less than his supporters wanted, but more than the opposition had hoped.

However, over the past four years, it’s not just America that has changed. America’s allies are also changing. This makes it impossible to return transatlantic relations back to an earlier period.

The unique relationship between the US and European countries is seen by observers as not going back to the way it once was, even though Mr. Biden has become President.

Former President Donald Trump is not alone.

The first reason that the relationship between the US and the European Union (EU) is difficult to return to the past originated from before Mr. Trump took office.

That’s Brexit. For decades, the UK was the first US partner to think of in Europe. London is also the most reliable and effective support partner on the “old continent”, sometimes even accepting against the bloc’s general policy.

Now that the UK leaves the EU, the United States needs to invest more time and resources in building relationships with EU politicians and institutions.

After all, defense and intelligence relations with Britain are still of great value to the United States, causing Washington to be concerned. Besides, the UK is still the closest partner to the US in terms of geopolitical issues such as Russia and China.

On the other hand, the administration of President Biden concurred with the assessment of the EU and Ireland on the challenges Brexit brought to Northern Ireland.

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU relations poses challenges for the US, especially when London and Brussels will have many disagreements in the coming period.

The second reason for the split between the US and EU is the common value system, affecting policy choices.

Economically, the presidency of President Trump has made American politicians “awaken”, realizing they need to work towards solving their own problems. Democrats demand increased support for workers, as well as for industry.

Although the EU also takes such measures, this could provoke the EU to oppose what it calls “unfair competition”.

In addition, EU priorities in the twenty-first century such as climate change or digital services could lead to new tariffs or regulations. With different approaches to digital privacy or freedom of speech, the common value systems between the US and Europe are increasingly distant.

However, the biggest difference lies in the geopolitics, namely the friend-foe perspective.

During the Cold War, when the Soviet Union was a common enemy, the transatlantic relationship was arguably the most sustainable.

Currently, some European countries and politicians have come closer to Moscow, considering it as an important energy partner. Others want to ignore acts of aggression, or actions that the EU deems a violation of Russian human rights.

But China is the real problem. The US sees China as a major competitor in both economic and security terms.

Meanwhile, while China can be viewed as a security threat, Europe still looks forward to economic cooperation with Beijing, reflected in the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment signed in December 2020.

America and Europe will find it difficult to cooperate with each other when it is impossible to even determine which are friends and enemies.

If not united by a common threat, the transatlantic relationship will split.

European leaders can breathe when a “traditional” President like Mr. Biden is elected. However, the departure of Mr. Trump does not create a solid foundation for this long-standing relationship.

The transatlantic alliance is on the decline, as is the Western-led world order. The two sides need to understand this soon to start building a new architecture, thereby forming a stronger bilateral relationship.

(According to Nikkei Asia)