The sound becomes sharper Fed sees two rate hikes in 2023

Status: 16.06.2021 8:59 p.m.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged. However, the loose monetary policy will not go on forever. The stock markets are falling, and the euro is also falling. Despite the waning corona pandemic and rising inflation rates, the US Federal Reserve continues to keep its key interest rate in a range between 0.00 and 0.25 percent. The monthly bond purchases of $ 120 billion are also expected to continue for the time being. At least until progress is made towards achieving the bank’s goals. In particular, this means “considerable progress in terms of price stability and employment”. This was stated by the monetary authorities after their two-day routine interest rate meeting in Washington. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed is still a long way from achieving its goal: “But we are making good progress.” The bank continues to blame temporary factors for the recently stronger rise in inflation data. At the same time, she expects inflation to rise to 3.4 percent this year and drop to 2.2 percent in 2022. There is also increased economic activity and employment. Powell said the discussion about scaling back the extremely loose monetary policy had begun. The point is when it will reduce its regular bond purchases. However, Powell was not specific. Basically, the Fed chief said that if you will, you have talked about wanting to talk about the subject. With such cautious wording Powell should try to avoid panic-like reactions in the financial markets.

Two rate hikes envisaged in 2023

For the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, however, the monetary authorities signaled that there could be two interest rate hikes of half a percentage point each in 2023. So far, the Fed’s interest rate projection provided for an unchanged monetary policy with a key interest rate close to zero. After all, seven monetary authorities are now even of the opinion that a tightening could come next year. Not only has the interest rate forecast been raised, expectations for economic growth and inflation are also higher in some cases. For this year, the Fed is expecting macroeconomic growth of 7.0 percent instead of the 6.5 percent previously expected.

Share prices are falling

Wall Street reacts with price losses, all leading stock indices give way in an initial reaction. The leading index Dow Jones lost around one percent, the other indices are slightly below. Prices are also falling on the bond market, with the yield on ten-year US government bonds increasing to 1.56 percent. The euro is losing significantly against the dollar and is currently trading at 1.2026 dollars, around one cent less than in today’s trading

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After taking the helm of Brilliance Group for 13 years, in April 2019, when receiving the retirement notice, Qi Yumin once left a message in the circle of friends: “Life is short, the past is cleared.” Last year, two weeks after Brilliance Group went into bankruptcy and reorganization, Qi Yumin was officially dismissed and investigated. Many people attribute his investigation to the continuous financial crisis of Brilliance Group in the second half of 2020.

Now, Qi Yumin, who has retired for two years, has not returned to his hometown of Xi’an as expected to live his longing for “Going Back to the Garden”. What he has to face is a serious accountability-due to the dereliction of duty in reporting the profits of Brilliance Group during his tenure, he was expelled from the party and collected illegal gains.

On June 15th, with the approval of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, the Liaoning Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection conducted an investigation and investigation on the suspected 10 serious violations of discipline and law by Qi Yumin, chairman and president of Brilliance Automobile Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Brilliance Group”). .

After investigation, Qi Yumin seriously violated the party’s political discipline, organizational discipline, integrity discipline, work discipline, and life discipline, constituted a violation of the law and was suspected of crimes of bribery, embezzlement of public funds, and crimes of abuse of power by state-owned company personnel. Research by the Standing Committee of the Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection And reported to the provincial party committee for approval, decided to give Qi Yumin expelled from the party; cancel the treatment he enjoyed according to regulations; collect his illegal income; transfer his suspected crime to the procuratorial organ for review and prosecution in accordance with the law, and the property involved is also transferred.

During his 13 years as chairman of Brilliance Group, Qi Yumin left a lot of controversy. In the past 13 years, Brilliance Group relied on a joint venture with BMW, and its own brands eventually fell out of the mainstream market. Since then, Brilliance Group, which has lost its hematopoietic ability, entered the bankruptcy reorganization process at the end of last year, and its Hong Kong-listed company Brilliance China (01114.hk) has fallen into rumors of “privatization”.

Qi Yumin: In the past, it could not be cleared

Some people say that Qi Yumin is different from other Autobots. He never wanted to enter the auto industry.

Looking at his work experience, Qi Yumin has a complete resume of a state-owned enterprise. From 1982 to 2004, a planner from Dalian Heavy Machinery Factory has been the chairman and general manager of Dazhong, Crane Group. In 2004, he served as Deputy Mayor of Dalian Municipal People’s Government. Since 2005, he has been in charge of Brilliance Group for 13 years until retirement.

“I came to Brilliance in a daze. After I came, I really felt like I fell into a fire pit.” Qi Yumin said when he just took over the Brilliance Group.

At that time, the Brilliance Group, which was transformed from a privately-owned company to a state-owned holding company, experienced an unprecedented four-year era of great turbulence and chaos, and its development was in trouble. At this time, Brilliance Auto was in a huge loss for three years, unable to pay wages, and still owed the supplier 1 billion yuan in payment. Due to poor efficiency, there was a serious loss of personnel. The first thing Qi Yumin did was to go to the bank to borrow money everywhere, and in just 5 days he took a loan of 700 million yuan to open his salary, repay the arrears, reorganized parts suppliers, launched the Junjie model, and successfully raised 1.5 billion yuan in Hong Kong. , To solve the urgent need of Brilliance Auto.

Although Qi Yumin had hoped to make a breakthrough in the self-owned brand sector, many attempts were unsuccessful. After years of decline in the technical strength and sales performance of Brilliance’s independent business, it ranked bottom among large state-owned auto companies.

Public data shows that the sales of Brilliance’s own brands have been declining year by year in the past three years. In 2018, Brilliance Automotive’s overall sales volume was 89,400, a year-on-year decline of 31.7%, ranking bottom. In 2019, Brilliance Auto’s sales volume was 49,100. In 2020, Brilliance Auto’s sales slashed again to only 22,800 units, ranking bottom among state-owned auto companies again.

According to the data released by the Passenger Association, in 2020, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, Brilliance China, which had a high-light moment, suspended production and shifts, and its annual sales were even zero. Huasong MPV models also encountered the same dilemma.

The explanation for the decline in sales of independent brands by the executives of Brilliance Auto has always been that there are shortcomings in terms of channels and brand power. “Because the market operation cannot keep up with the product, the network system is relatively fragile and cannot provide support for the current sales target.”

In fact, Brilliance Auto was once a disruptor in the auto industry, aggressively and boldly experimenting with the shareholding system and the bankruptcy system.

In the era of Yangrong, Brilliance took three steps: in 1989, the Jinbei opened the way to introduce technology from Toyota and other companies; in 1992, Jinbei GM and 2003, BMW Brilliance launched a joint venture model; in 2000, China Motor launched its own autonomy. The prelude to research and development.

In addition, Brilliance International negotiated with Rover of the United Kingdom and Renault of France to conspire to acquire Shaanxi Qinchuan. However, due to the “Rover Project” in the later period, Yang Rong and the government had conflicts over the ownership of Brilliance. After the breakdown of the negotiations, Yang Rong went to the United States in 2002 and did not return. The Liaoning Provincial Party Committee dispatched a working team to Brilliance to conduct a comprehensive inventory of Brilliance’s assets, and thus took back control of Brilliance.

At present, as a state-owned enterprise in Liaoning Province, Brilliance Group directly or indirectly controls and participates in four listed companies, and through its listed company Brilliance China and BMW jointly established BMW Brilliance, which has its own brands Zhonghua, Jinbei, Huasong and BMW Brilliance, Two joint venture brands of Brilliance Renault.

But after 2002, Brilliance suffered from the “common problems of large state-owned enterprises”: product system confusion, lack of pillar models, excessive reliance on joint ventures, and the escape of a large number of talents and dealers caused Brilliance’s mid-level failure, which has not changed so far.

From a historical perspective, Brilliance Auto has lost many good opportunities, including the Rover project (termination of compensation), Renault domestic project (termination of compensation), Chevrolet SUV, domestic pickup project (integrated by SAIC GM), and joint venture projects in BMW China also lost the right to speak.

In the capital market, Brilliance has planned many plans, including adding some new listing platforms, but they have not been realized so far, including the listing of Shenyang special vehicles. In 2015, Brilliance had a plan to go public in two years, but it failed to materialize. As the No. 1 Jinbei brand in China, and even China Motors, which was once comparable to the international brands, it gradually became silent after news of wage arrears, suspension of production, and long vacations came out.

Earlier, some Brilliance insiders told AI Finance and Economics that the government-based management and the officialization of personnel are the fundamental reason for the decline of state-owned auto companies.

A 1 billion bond default triggers bankruptcy and reorganization

Everything is so sudden, Brilliance Group is “bankrupted”.

As Brilliance Group’s 1 billion private placement debt “17 Huaqi 05” expired on October 23, 2020 and failed to be paid on schedule, Brilliance Automotive was sold by its supplier, Gezhi Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. in Liaoning. The Intermediate People’s Court of Shenyang City in the province filed for bankruptcy and reorganization.

Since Brilliance Group has constituted a debt default amount of 6.5 billion yuan, the total amount of overdue interest is 144 million yuan. Brilliance was unable to repay due to tight funds.

On November 20, 2020, the Shenyang Intermediate People’s Court ruled to accept the creditor’s application for reorganization of Brilliance Auto Group, marking that Brilliance Group has officially entered the bankruptcy reorganization process. The reorganization only involves the self-owned brand sector of the group’s headquarters, and does not involve the group’s listed companies and joint ventures with BMW and Renault.

Since the second half of last year, problems such as the collapse of bonds, high debt levels, freezing of equity, zero sales, and decline of independent brands have continued to emerge. Brilliance Auto has undoubtedly become a brand that is on the verge of life and death.

“If I caught a cold, I entered the morgue.” This is the intuitive feeling of the outside world about Brilliance Automobile’s sullenness.

Who knows, such a billion-dollar giant can’t pay 1 billion private debts, and the fundamental problem is no longer an overnight disaster. Behind this, the assets of Brilliance Group are not healthy.

According to statistics, in the three years from 2017 to 2019, the total liabilities of Brilliance Automotive Group were 114.256 billion yuan, 119.585 billion yuan and 144.781 billion yuan respectively; and the asset-liability ratios for the three years were 70.84%, 69.93% and 74.11% respectively. .

In the first half of 2020, the total liabilities of Brilliance Group have reached 132.844 billion yuan. After deducting goodwill and intangible assets, the asset-liability ratio is 71.4%. In addition, as of October last year, Brilliance Auto had issued 34 bonds and 14 remaining bonds, with a total outstanding bond balance of 16.2 billion yuan.

In September of that year, Qi Kai, the vice president of Brilliance Automobile Group Holding Co., Ltd., who had just taken office, said in an interview that, in terms of finance, Brilliance Group did encounter the problem of shortage of funds and liquidity, but “Brilliance Group sits on 170 billion assets. , The debt is more than 120 billion, and the debt ratio is about 70%.” Therefore, “as a production and operation enterprise, the debt and assets are relatively reasonable, and the debt-to-asset ratio is at the middle level of the industry.”

While explaining the rationality of assets and liabilities, while exporting to the market confidence in boosting the sales of its own brands, Qi Kai’s presence did not divert everyone’s worries about the insolvency of Brilliance Group.

The latest news is that in May 2021, Brilliance Group issued a reorganization progress announcement stating that as of May 19, 2021, the administrator has received a total of 5,986 creditors to declare claims, and the total amount of claims is 53.673 billion yuan, of which the administrator The total amount determined in the preliminary investigation was RMB 39.1 billion.

Over-reliance on BMW’s own brand is weak

“I know that many people scold me for not engaging in self-owned brands, but in fact, if others are better than you, they are better than you. You have to be brave enough to admit it.” Qi Yumin said in an interview with the media in 2017.

The focus on joint ventures, the abandonment of autonomy, the lack of technical input, and the lack of pillar models have left hidden dangers for the decline of Brilliance Auto.

Critics believe that Qi Yumin’s “not enterprising” on products and his “ignorant” to the group are the important reasons for the decline of Brilliance.

“The money earned from BMW Brilliance will be returned to Brilliance’s independent business.” Qi Yumin said, “If you haven’t learned technology in 30 years, China should reflect on it. My reflection is that foreign teachers did not teach well and Chinese students did not learn well. .”

So Qi Yumin chose a shortcut: use joint ventures to feed back independence. Qi Yumin intends to use the “big plane” to provide power-technology comes from BMW, and then high technology to support his own brand, in addition to continue to integrate the automotive industry and capital markets, and finally corporate culture and management-internationalization, modernization, and marketization . Two tail wings: one is the engine and the other is diversified, including the capital market.

“Our proposition is a healthy interaction between the financial market and the automobile industry. The reason why I set up a capital company is to develop an independent industry. 100% of the money I financed and the return on investment I earn are invested in the two independent brands of Zhonghua and Jinbei. Development.” Qi Yumin said.

It is a pity that things go against people’s wishes.

BMW Brilliance almost supported the entire Brilliance Group and continued to provide blood transfusions for Brilliance, while Brilliance’s own brands have almost stagnated.

Since 2011, Brilliance China’s annual operating income has been maintained at 5-6 billion yuan, but its net profit has ranged from 1.8 billion to 5.3 billion yuan. At the same time, BMW Brilliance provides annual profits of Brilliance China of RMB 1.7-5.5 billion, accounting for 94.9% -119.6%. In the five years from 2015 to 2019, if the profit of BMW Brilliance is excluded, Brilliance Auto has been at a loss, with a cumulative loss of 3.484 billion yuan.

In 2018, the 15th anniversary of BMW Brilliance, BMW acquired 25% of the shares of BMW Brilliance for 3.6 billion euros, with a shareholding ratio of 75%, which caused an uproar in the industry.

Many people worry that when the shareholders of BMW Brilliance complete the equity change, it may be the beginning of the loss of Brilliance China. It is also said that Brilliance Auto is likely to be completely reduced to BMW’s foundry.

At that time, Qi Yumin responded to the change in share ratio on TV: “Hong Kong’s listed companies are mainly supported by BMW Brilliance. As soon as the share ratio is released, the capital market will react soon, but they only know that Brilliance will leave BMW and it will be over. Since the 75% share ratio is nothing to talk about, then I have to talk about other benefits. I have limited two, one is to ask the joint venture to make the cake bigger and at least double it, otherwise it would be meaningless to liberalize the share ratio. The second is that the shareholders of both parties need to obtain greater economic benefits. Even if Brilliance’s equity ratio changes from 50% to 25% in three years, the interest at that time must be greater than the current 50% equity ratio.”

On February 3 this year, Brilliance China’s stock changed, and even the stock price of the same automobile Jiefang soared. There are rumors that FAW Group will acquire the shares of Brilliance China. The transaction value is about 7.2 billion U.S. dollars (about 46.7 billion yuan) in an attempt to privatize Brilliance. , But soon, Brilliance China responded: “I don’t know the source of the information contained in the media report.”

At present, this is the biggest good news for Brilliance Group in the process of bankruptcy and reorganization.

This article was originally produced by AI Finance and Economics, an account of “Finance World” Weekly. Please do not reprint it on any channel or platform without permission. Offenders must be investigated.

Investors in high spirits Why the DAX rushes from record to record

Status: 14.06.2021 4:03 p.m.

While the economy is only slowly picking up pace after the Corona openings, the German stock market does not seem to be stopping. What are the main reasons for the price boom? From Lothar Gries, tagesschau.de The German leading index DAX rose by up to 0.7 percent in the morning and climbed to a record high of 15,802 points – the 23rd record this year. The index has risen by 15 percent since the beginning of the year. The stock exchanges are also in record-breaking mood at the European level. The Stoxx 600 index, comprising 600 values, also climbed 0.7 percent today and reached its 38th high this year with 460.51 points. The stock markets are fired from several sides. The most important driver is the expansionary monetary policy of the central banks in the USA and Europe. Since the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the key interest rate to zero on March 10, 2016, i.e. more than five years ago, the returns on traditional savings offers from banks and savings banks have also shrunk to such an extent that even risk-averse German investors are looking for alternatives have looked around. In addition to real estate and precious metals, stocks are very popular.

More and more shareholders

In this country there were as many shareholders last year as last year in 2001, as determined by the German Stock Institute (DAI). According to this, 12.4 million people in Germany have invested in the stock market, i.e. they owned exchange-traded securities such as fund shares or stocks. Compared to 2019, that’s an increase of 2.7 million or 28 percent. The downward trend of previous years has thus been completely reversed. After the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the number of equity investors in Germany steadily declined – until interest rates sank to virtually zero. But the ECB has not only boosted the number of shareholders and thus share investments, it is also active on the capital markets itself. In order to keep the economic effects of the corona pandemic as low as possible, the central bank is pumping many millions of euros into the market every day. To do this, it buys bonds issued by governments and companies. By the end of March 2022, she wants to spend the gigantic sum of 1.85 trillion euros, a number with twelve zeros. A considerable part of it flows into the stock market and drives prices to ever new heights.

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No end of the flood in sight

In the past few weeks, there have been repeated suspicions that the central banks in Europe and the USA will soon be able to turn the money off again because inflation is reporting back and price increases have shot far beyond the monetary authorities’ targets. But both Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and ECB President Christine Lagarde initially gave the all-clear. Just today, Lagarde said in an interview with the magazine “Politico” that the time was not yet ripe for a discussion about an end to the crisis bond purchases by the central bank. “It is far too early to debate these issues,” said Lagarde. The economic recovery must be firm, solid and sustainable. Don’t take a patient’s crutches off until the muscles begin to build up sufficiently – so that the patient can move on their own two legs again.

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V-shaped economic recovery expected

In addition, investors are assuming that the pandemic-related restrictions will end soon. “The pandemic is no longer an issue at the latest with the now significantly lower number of new infections, and investors also seem to be able to come to terms more and more with the fear of inflation,” says market expert Milan Cutkovic from brokerage firm Axi. With the decline in Covid-19 restrictions, growth expectations are skyrocketing around the globe. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects the global economy to grow by 5.7 percent this year. For Germany, the federal government expects growth of up to four percent. The prognosis from the beginning of the Corona crisis that there will be a V-effect in which the economy first collapses, but then quickly recovers, seems to be confirmed. This is rather good news for equity investors, because they hope that a growing economy will generate increasing profits and thus rising prices for listed companies.

Price turbulence ahead?

This combination of a zero interest rate policy, a glut of money from the central banks, a growing number of shareholders and the expectation of a rapid recovery in the global economy is driving share prices to ever new heights. But the air is getting thinner. Many investors are watching the Fed’s monetary policy deliberations this Wednesday. It is true that the Fed is not expected to deviate from its current course and end the boom in the financial markets. “But their projections on inflation, interest rates and the economy could cause price turbulence,” says Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at the brokerage firm AvaTrade.

Private wealth at a record high Especially the super-rich get richer

Status: 10.06.2021 8:34 a.m.

Never before have people worldwide amassed so much private wealth as in the Corona year 2020. The wealth of Germans alone climbed – thanks to savings and real estate – to almost 20 trillion dollars. 20,000,000,000,000 dollars – this is the impressive sum of private wealth that private households in Germany had at their disposal in 2020. This emerges from the new “Global Wealth Report” by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

Better real estate than stocks

The Germans were helped by their much-cited propensity to save: financial assets, including cash, account balances, stocks, pensions and life insurance, grew by around six percent to around nine trillion dollars, according to the information. Investors in Germany saved above average, emphasized Anna Zakrzewski, BCG partner and author of the study. “Traditionally, Germans prefer to invest in real estate rather than in securities, as the real value quota of almost 60 percent clearly shows,” says the BCG expert. In the crisis year 2020, the real assets of Germans, i.e. real estate, jewelry, art and gold, increased by five percent to 13 trillion dollars. After deducting debts, private households in Germany had a total of just under $ 20 trillion.

Rising stock market prices, growing savings

The developments in Germany are a reflection of a global trend: people around the globe accumulated more wealth than ever in the year of the Corona crisis. Private financial assets rose year-on-year by a good eight percent to a record $ 250 trillion. Rising stock exchange prices and growing savings contributed to this. The BCG experts were surprised, as they expected a year ago that private assets would melt as a result of the corona pandemic. For the first time in 2020, the BCG experts will also consider property such as real estate or gold. Total assets minus debt was $ 431 trillion.

2900 super-rich in Germany

However, wealth is unevenly distributed. Above all, the club of the rich and super-rich grew strongly. The super rich – these are people with a net worth of more than $ 100 million. In the crisis year 2020, 6000 more people were accepted into the club of the super-rich, the number of members grew to 60,000. According to the BCG, these 60,000 people own 15 percent of the world’s investable wealth. In Germany alone there are 2,900 super-rich. This puts the Federal Republic of Germany in third place in the global ranking. The USA is at the top, followed by China.

Getting richer?

Against the background of the expected economic recovery after the Corona crisis, BCG expects steady growth in global private wealth for the coming years. By 2025, it should grow by an average of just under five percent annually to $ 544 trillion. Global inequalities are likely to increase further: According to the BCG forecast, people in North America, Asia excluding Japan and Western Europe in particular will get richer.

Technically. In the trading session on June 15, 2021, VN-Index had the 3rd consecutive gaining session. However, the index created a candle with a small body when testing the adjacent old peak, showing the struggling sentiment of investors. Besides, the trading volume is close to the 20-day average. The Stochastic Oscillator has given a buy signal. The MACD is approaching the signal line. If this indicator also shows similar signal, the index’s situation will be better. The zone of 1,390-1,410 points (100% Fibonacci Projection level) will still be the target that the index is aiming for. In case the index suddenly corrects, the short-term uptrend line (starting from January 2021) will be the nearest support. The Middle Band is also near this support so the reliability is quite high. The HNX-Index created a small-body candle, showing investors’ hesitation. The trading volume dropped again (below the 20-day average) showing the cautious sentiment of investors. If the uptrend is maintained, the index is likely to test 330-340 points (100% Fibonacci Projection level). The Stochastic Oscillator has bought, thereby supporting this possibility. On the contrary, 290-300 points (the old peak of April 2021 was surpassed and the 50-day SMA) will be an important support if the index shakes strongly again. Returning to the session, HOSE had 183 gainers and 198 losers, VN-Index gained 5.64 points (equivalent to 0.41%), to 1,367.36 points. The total trading volume reached more than 730.94 million units, worth 24,425.3 billion dong, down nearly 6% in volume and more than 3% in value compared to yesterday. The put-through transaction contributed more than 24.37 million units, worth 1,241.4 billion dong. The VN30 basket had 12 gainers and 15 losers, with BID, MBB, and KDH standing for reference, with the notable point being that the trio of Vin stocks all inched up, in which, VRE +2.8% to 32,850 dong, VHM +2.5% to 112,600 dong, VIC +1.4% to 121,700 dong. Relatively good gains were also REE +2.5% to 56,900 dong, BVH +2% to 61,200 dong, HDB +1.9% to 34,750 dong, while VNM, NVL, VCB, VJC, PDR, TCH increased slightly. On the contrary, VPB was suddenly sold strongly again in the afternoon session and at one point fell to the floor price, before closing -6.2% at 66,500 dong, becoming the biggest drag on the market. Liquidity this session VPB led HOSE with more than 37.8 million matched units. Bank codes that fell deeply had SBT down 3.8% to 20,500 dong. The rest decreased slightly like MSN, HPG, PLX, TCB, TPB, CTG, GAS, MWG. Besides some highly liquid bluechips such as VPB, STB, MBB, HPG, CTG, PLX, the rest are mostly Midcap stocks. In which, stocks of real estate, construction, and industrial parks such as KBC, D2D and HCD hit the ceiling price, SCR increased by 5.7% to 12,150 dong, HBC increased by 3.3% to 15,700 dong. , DIG increased by 2.7% to 26,200 dong, SZC increased by 4.9% to 40,900 dong, IJC increased by 2.2% to 33,000 dong, in which, KBC suddenly matched orders with more than 20.8 million shares. Securities companies still maintained their attraction with FTS most prominently increasing by 7% to 34,500 dong, HCM by 6.5% to 44,900 dong, VCI by 4.1% to 102,000 dong, APG increased by 4% to 11,650 VND. In contrast, TSC dropped to the floor price at 12,850 dong, matched more than 6.11 million shares, related stock FIT dropped 2.9% to 14,950 dong, LPB took profit strongly and fell 5.5% to 29,000 dong, PVD dropped 2% to 22,450 dong, ANV fell 4.6% to 28,800 dong. On the HNX, the HNX-Index gradually inched up in the afternoon session, but with the extension of the falling momentum of SHB, it strongly influenced this index, causing another drop to reference and closing in the red. At the close, HNX had 73 gainers and 116 losers, HNX-Index decreased by 0.72 points (equivalent to 0.22%), to 318.29 points. Total matched volume reached more than 152.9 million units, worth 4,134.4 billion dong. The put-through transaction added more than 72.6 million units, worth more than 2,270 billion dong. SHB plummeted 4.1% to 28,000 dong, matched orders of more than 31.3 million units, the highest on HNX. Besides, PVS dropped 2% to VND 28,700, BVS dropped 1.7% to VND 28,800, PVI dropped 2.5% to VND 43,700, CEO dropped 1.9% to VND 10,200, and many other losers at TNG , PVC, HUT, ART, TVB, VCS. Creating great support was SHS up 5.6% to 43,200 dong, matched only after SHB with more than 17.4 million units, VND 2.8% up to 44,700 dong, PAN up 1.5% to 27,300 dong. when BSI, MBS only inched slightly. In particular, IDC shares jumped to the ceiling price of +9.7% to 39,400 dong, matched more than 11.4 million shares. Closing the session, UpCoM-Index increased by 0.05 points (equivalent to 0.05%), to 88.87 points. Total matched volume reached more than 71.6 million units, worth 1,304.1 billion dong. The put-through transaction added more than 16.5 million units, worth 386.8 billion dong. In the absence of supporting information like the present, the probability of the index correcting down in the next few sessions before short-term profit-taking pressure is still significant, however, today’s positive movement showed that the index has dropped. There is a certain improvement in the general expectation of investors about the overall outlook of the market. Temporary investors should only consider disbursing exploration with a small proportion when the index is still around the threshold of 1,370 points and should not use leverage. The current goal is still to gradually accumulate stocks that maintain positive growth potential in the second half of 2021 for the medium-long-term portfolio.

For Mr. Nguyen Van Hau: A fine of 70,000,000 VND (Seventy million VND) as prescribed in Clause 3 Article 5, Point dd Clause 2 and Clause 5 Article 33 of Decree No. 156/2020/ND-CP dated 31/03 12/2020 of the Government on sanctioning of administrative violations in the field of securities and securities market. Because there has been an administrative violation: Not disclosing information about the expected transaction (January 25, 2021, Mr. Nguyen Van Hau is a person related to Mr. Nguyen Van Hung – Member of the Board of Directors of Hanoi Southern Urban and Housing Development Investment Corporation (stock code: NHA) sold 205,000 NHA shares (equivalent to VND 2,050,000,000 par value of NHA shares) but did not disclose information about the expected deal). For Mr. Dao Minh Tuan: A fine of VND 25,000,000 (Twenty-five million VND) as prescribed in Clause 3, Article 5, Point a, Clause 4, Article 33 of Decree No. 156/2020/ND-CP dated December 31st/ 2020 of the Government stipulating the sanctioning of administrative violations in the field of securities and the securities market. Because there was an administrative violation: Disclosure of information on time when owning 5% or more of the voting shares of a public company (December 15, 2020, Mr. Tuan bought 829,946 shares of Saigon General Services Joint Stock Company (stock code: SVC) and became a major shareholder of Saigon General Services Joint Stock Company. Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange has just received the report of becoming a major shareholder of Mr. Dao Minh Tuan.

Recently, according to media reports, a person familiar with the situation revealed that Biden will formally propose a tax increase plan next week. This plan proposal is mainly aimed at the wealthy people with an annual income of not less than 1 million yuan. The capital gains tax rate is 39.6%, which is higher than the current rate. The 20% tax rate has nearly doubled, plus the existing 3.8% investment income surcharge, which means that the wealthy may face a capital gains tax of 43.4%.

What is capital gains tax?

Capital gains tax is a kind of temporary tax, which refers to a tax levied on the realized capital gains of taxpayers who are not specialized in the sale of real property and valuable securities.

The capital gains tax increase plan is undoubtedly a great negative for the U.S. stock market. As soon as this news came out, U.S. stocks fell sharply at the opening. The three major stock indexes all closed down about 1%. On the other hand, Bitcoin fell nearly 6%. Once dropped to around $50,000, Bitcoin’s fall is the first time its share of the cryptocurrency market has fallen below 50% in two years.

It is understood that if Biden’s tax increase plan is implemented this time, some capital gains taxes that were originally taxed may exceed 50%. Among them, New York and California will bear the brunt. The Biden administration’s view on the tax increase is to increase Capital gains tax will not have a negative impact.

However, many professionals still believe that Biden’s increase in the capital gains tax rate will stimulate selling. A large number of investors will reduce their positions in order to avoid higher capital gains taxes, leading to a large number of stocks being sold in the stock market. As a result, the value of the stock fell sharply.

Some professional organizations also said that the plan will cause greater turbulence in the market. The increase in capital gains tax will have a greater impact than the increase in corporate tax. Investors’ investment methods may change, and the investment market may experience a significant cooling in the future. .

Although many people think that Biden’s tax increase is not surprising, they did not expect the tax increase to come so fast, and the tax rate increase is so high, which many people did not expect.

Photo is for illustration only. (Source: CNBC) Closing the last session of the week, the main indicators are above Wall Street stock market All went up thanks to positive data on economic activity and new home sales in the US, however, the rise of the 23/4 session did not compensate for the decline for the whole week of volatile trading. . In the first session of April 19, the US stock market went down due to profit-taking activities after the Dow Jones and S&P 500 index ended last week at record highs. The decline continued into the next session (April 20) when stock prices fell amid concerns about pricing and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic that had a strong impact on markets and investor sentiment. private. Coming to session 21/4, the indices regained momentum after two previous declining sessions, with most sectors having an active session, when experts commented that market movements declined in The previous session is the signal for investors to buy. However, at the end of April 22, the indexes all declined significantly, although the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the first time in this country was lower than expected. Markets flooded in red after Bloomberg News and several other firms reported that President Joe Biden intends to propose an increase in capital-gains tax from 20% to 39.6% for individuals with income of more than 1 million USD / year. In the last session of the week 23/4, investor sentiment recovered thanks to a series of positive profit reports from large enterprises and data showing the “healthy” state of the US economy. Closing the session on April 23, the Dow Jones industrial index rose 0.7% to 34,043.49, the S&P 500 composite index advanced 1.1% to 4,180.17, and the Nasdaq Technology Index rose 1. , 4% and closed at 14,016.81 points. However, for the whole week, the Dow Jones decreased by 0.5%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq decreased by 0.1% and 0.3 compared to the previous week. Regarding the proposed tax increase for the richest class of the US, experts say the plan is in line with Mr. Biden’s campaign commitments, but the rate of tax increase is likely to be narrowed in negotiations in the National Assembly of this country. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, commented that the 39.6% figure is not surprising, but actual developments show that the current financial market is more “sensitive” to bad news and this is the period. volatile paragraphs. American market strategist David Joy of Ameriprise Financial, also noticed stock prices are recovering after the market reacted unexpectedly to news that the White House would propose a tax increase while President Biden mentioned to this issue while campaigning. Besides, senior market analyst for America at OANDA, Mr. Edward Moya pointed out that factors contributing to the stock market’s rally are positive data about the US economy. According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, new home sales in March (seasonally adjusted to increase) reached 1,021 million units – up 20.7% from the previous month. The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose from 59.1 in March to a record 60.5 in April. Meanwhile, the PMI of the service sector also increased from 60.4 points to 63.1. The 50-point threshold defines whether an economy is growing or declining. The IHS Markit PMI is considered a prestigious indicator of “economic health.” In general, the profit of the companies that reported early were all higher than expected. According to IBES Refinitiv, the first quarter profit of enterprises is expected to increase by 33.9% over the same period last year. Ron Temple, head of the US equities division at Lazard Asset Management, said the US economy is expected to see its strongest growth in 50 years, with growth of more than 6% both this year and next year. Federal Reserve (Fed) will allow the economy to accelerate faster than before, further boosting prospects for high growth./.

Many macro factors will support the market’s growth trend in the whole year 2021. Photo: Duy Dung. The probability of VN-Index falling is not high According to BVSC’s report, compared with the movements of the VN-Index in the past, the current P / E of the VN-Index is already higher than the 5-year average. However, according to BVSC’s observation, at the current P / E, the probability of a market decline is not high. In addition, with the recovery of the economy, according to BVSC’s forecasts, profits of listed businesses will grow by 27.3% by 2021 (compared to 2020). With the profit growth of listed companies, the P / E of the VN-Index is likely to drop to 15 times – lower than the 5-year moving average (16.41 times) of the VN- Index; therefore, the 2021 P / E level of the market is still attractive. BVSC’s experts believe that the Vietnamese market is attractive compared to other markets in the region, but it is very important to the ability to attract foreign capital, connect with the flow of investment capital in the world. equals the valuation of Vietnamese stocks in terms of general ground. Up to now, the market liquidity and the ETFs participating in the market have also contributed to help the Vietnamese market’s valuation ground closer to other markets in the world. As of April 9, 2021, compared to the sample of 12 markets observed by BVSC, including countries in frontier, emerging and developed markets, the P / E of the VN-Index is currently at 19.11 times. – 4th low out of 13 markets followed and just above P / E of Shanghai Index (17.61 times) of China, Hang Seng (14.86 times) of Hong Kong and KOSPI (12.99 times) of Korea. These are also 3 markets with a sharp decrease of more than 10%, in February and March. Meanwhile, “the rate of return on equity of the companies listed on the HSX stock exchange is at the highest level among the markets we monitor. This shows that, in general, with high return on equity, stocks in the VN-Index basket are being traded at very attractive price ranges when compared with other markets. other securities in the region and internationally ”- said BVSC’s expert. The market still maintained an uptrend throughout the year According to experts from BVSC, despite facing an interest rate hike in 2022, the stock market can normally recover and then rebound after early monetary tightening. first. The reason for this is that central banks in many countries often practice monetary tightening since the economy is still in the growth phase, when businesses still have positive business results and do. reduce the impact of increasing operating rates. Therefore, BVSC believes that the world stock market is not too concerned when central banks of countries implement interest rate hikes or monetary tightening for the first time. In the past, markets often reversed and fell into a downward phase at the third rate hike by central banks. For Vietnam, according to BVSC’s experts, with the context that GDP growth is accelerating again and can grow impressively in the second quarter; Other macro indicators are operating stably, supporting business activities; listed companies will have good growth in 2021, especially many industries with high growth in the first quarter such as banking, steel …; and beyond, foreign capital will continue to flow into Vietnam market thanks to its ability to be upgraded and the attractiveness of a dynamic and rapidly growing economy. “These are factors supporting the market’s growth trend in 2021” – stressed BVSC expert. However, BVSC also notes some potential short-term risks. Accordingly, when the positive information has been reflected in the price, the new cash flows into the market cannot keep up with the price increase, the cash flow is withdrawn from major shareholders – or companies that sell stocks. Fund … Besides, when the opportunities to gain from pure stocks derive from cash flow factors, lack of support in the core positive change of the business, will create potential risks. on the ability of the market to correct in the short term./.

Financial information is one of the indispensable factors in investment and business decisions. In particular, on the stock market, information is a sensitive factor that directly affects investment decisions.

Accordingly, the cooperation between SSC and VACPA is practical to improve the quality of financial information on the stock market, and the effectiveness of securities market management and supervision by regulators, to promote the profession. Accounting and auditing industry in Vietnam develops.

SSC and VACPA will cooperate in 4 contents including information exchange, quality control, training activities, seminars and suggestions to develop legal documents / professional documents compiled by the two sides.

In particular, with quality control activities, the Committee provides information on quality control results and errors in audit records with VACPA for the two sides to jointly organize dialogues / exchanges. /training.

When requested by the Committee, VACPA assigns staff to inspect and evaluate audited financial statements as well as audit records of auditors in the regular oversight activities of the Committee.

Mr. Tran Van Dung, Chairman of the State Securities Commission, said that, besides stocks, will cooperate with VACPA in both derivative market, new products and corporate bonds in the near future. . The cooperation will help ensure the quality of commodity control work in the financial markets.

Sharing the same point of view, Mr. Pham Sy Danh, Chairman of VACPA shared, with the sustainable development of the stock market, the role of information transparency, as well as the activities of auditors and independent auditors. is very important.

“Three important factors that investors need when entering the market are the public company’s transparency, the Securities Commission’s control and the transparency of the independent auditor,” said Danh.