That’s it.

This is a complaint made by many friends around me after staying up late to watch the WWDC Developer Conference. The update rate is not too big, the new iPadOS has not liberated the productivity of the M1 chip version of the iPad Pro, and the attractiveness of changing the phone is low.

In the Apple product lineup, there is another product that is similar to the iPad Pro, and that is the Apple Watch. Since Apple Watch 4, the subsequent generations of products have not been updated much.

What’s more, the lower price of Apple Watch SE is not too far from the Apple Watch 6 in terms of core functional experience, which makes it more or less embarrassing to have a higher positioning and price, and Apple Watch users will inevitably have less willingness to change. some.

If you want to change this status quo, you must make drastic updates and adjustments to the product. Judging from the current exposure information of Bloomberg and other media, the changes in the next-generation Apple Watch have begun to take shape.

With narrower screen borders and better performance, Apple Watch 7 has changed?

The first is the change in appearance. According to a report by the well-known whistleblower Jon Prosser, Apple will use a similar design to the iPhone 12 on the Apple Watch 7, that is, it will adopt more right-angled edge designs.

Earlier, Apple analysts also said that Apple may update the appearance design of Apple Watch in 2021. The two predictions for Apple products are more than 70% accurate, and there is still a certain degree of credibility..

The shape is the most intuitive difference that people feel, and it is also one of the important ways to distinguish between the new and the old. Its boosting effect on sales has been verified by products such as iPhone 12, which may be one of the reasons why Apple changed its design.

In addition, Bloomberg, which also has a high rate of prediction accuracy, recently released a report on the next-generation Apple Watch. It stated that the Apple Watch released this year will cause major changes in both the appearance and the inside.

In terms of screen, the next generation of Apple Watch will adopt a narrower screen frame, which means that the screen size may increase. The previous 4th generation has also reduced the screen frame as a major change.

▲Comparison of the screen size of Apple Watch 4 and Apple Watch 3

At the same time, Apple may use new screen technology to reduce the gap between the display and the glass cover, but the watch will be thicker overall.

Next is the heavyweight, Bloomberg said that Apple Watch 7 will use a faster chip.

At present, the S6 chip used in the sixth generation is based on the two small cores of the A13. The A13 is manufactured based on the 7nm process. Now Apple has used 5nm for both the M1 chip on the Mac and the latest A14 chip process. , The next-generation S7 chip, the same 5nm process seems to be the natural choice.

More advanced craftsmanship can often improve performance, reduce energy consumption, and reduce battery life pressure. The new Mac equipped with the M1 chip is the best case.

Of course, whether the battery life can be improved depends on the implementation of Apple’s product planning, and an increased screen often means an increase in energy consumption. It is not easy to say whether the battery life will increase or decrease under one increase and one decrease.

Battery life is now one of the biggest experience pain points of Apple Watch. It is really troublesome to charge a day as a portable device, and functions like sleep monitoring conflict with people’s habit of charging at night.

Another change is the feature update of Ultra Wideband Technology (UWB). As early as Apple Watch 6, Apple installed the U1 chip, but there have been few applications for related functions.

According to the characteristics of UWB technology near field communication, the new update is likely to interact with more smart devices. There are also related functions in the new system watchOS 8. Apple Watch will become a smart home butler, not only can manage smart home devices, but also similar Remind to lock the door, automatically turn on the lights and other functions.

▲Remind you that the door is not locked

Finally, there are changes in health functions. Although functions such as blood oxygen detection and electrocardiogram have become one of the core differences between the highest-positioned Apple Watch 6 and other models, the changes in this aspect of the next-generation Apple Watch are still unclear.

Bloomberg said that the temperature test at this year’s meeting may have to wait until next year. As for the non-invasive blood oxygen test that can measure blood glucose levels without blood sampling, it takes longer for commercial use. For diabetic patients, blood glucose testing at any time is important for the condition. It is very meaningful for monitoring.

The next-generation Apple Watch SE and outdoor version will also be released next year.

The popularity of Apple Watch

Today’s Apple Watch has already proven its value. Market data is the best proof. According to data research institutions Counterpoint ResearchAccording to the report, global smartwatch shipments in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 35% year-on-year, and Apple Watch accounted for nearly one-third of the market.

It is foreseeable that manufacturers, including Apple, will still promote the popularization of smart watches, but this cannot be solved quickly by polishing products alone.

As a product that focuses on the sports and health market, the barriers to use and learning of smart watches are much higher than those of mobile phones. I once asked a friend who has been using Apple Watch to assist in fitness for many years. I can’t help but sigh while opening up a new world. The matter of exercise depends not only on personal wishes, but also on the use of tools.

According to a friend’s introduction, Apple Watch can detect a number of data during exercise, and more importantly, use the data to determine whether your exercise is correct, and in which areas need to be improved.

Taking swimming as an example, in addition to common calories, Apple Watch will also give out heart rate, speed, distance and other data, which mainly use speed and heart rate to judge whether the swimming style is correct and whether swimming is effective in reducing fat.

Many people do not feel too strenuous when learning breaststroke, and at this time his posture is often inclined in the water, the posture is not considered standard, corresponding to the exercise data is slow speed and low heart rate.

When I asked my friend how to use the exercise data tracked by Apple Watch to adjust swimming style, she said:

After learning breaststroke, I swam in a lap, and my heart rate was as high as 160, but the speed reached 5 minutes per 100 meters. That means my posture is wrong and swimming is not efficient. At this point, what I have to do is adjust my breath to lower my heart rate, and then pay attention to the next lap of swimming stretching and breathing frequency.

Speaking of this, you probably already understand that it is necessary to learn to use exercise data to judge exercise status and improve exercise ability. This is also related to personal exercise experience. As an exercise aid, Apple Watch must lower the threshold for popularization.

It is not that Apple has worked hard for this. Social functions are one of them. Users can share exercise data with friends and family through iMessage and other functions, while functions like “7-day competition” support mutual PK between users through reminders and notifications. Encourage both parties to complete the corresponding exercise.

This is also one of the answers many users argue about why they choose Apple Watch instead of professional sports watches. In addition to being a sports measurement tool, smart watches can also promote people to better establish healthy exercise habits through social services.

At the same time, you can judge your physical ability through exercise data. Taking running as an example, the heart rate of professional runners is different from that of ordinary people. Although everyone is within the normal heart rate range, professional runners have stronger cardiorespiratory capabilities and are calmer. The resting heart rate in the state is also lower (usually around 50 beats per minute).

Of course, sports social interaction is more limited to communication in a circle, and the threshold for direct tutorials is lower. In this regard, brands such as Huawei and OPPO are obviously doing better in China. They directly have supporting related tutorial services and provide a variety of Sports mode.

The fitness sports subscription service launched by Apple has not been launched in China, and whether the tutorials match the physical fitness of the Chinese is also a question mark.

▲ Fitness+ supports follow-up training.

This part of the lack can only be filled by keep and sports content on social media, which is also one of the values ​​of their existence.

The future of smart watches

Let more people know about smart watches through sports-related content services, which is more like a horizontal product popularization, and the vertical exploration of the smart watch category is to add more categories of health data monitoring.

Related functions are not only being explored by Apple, but also by manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi.

In addition to the non-invasive blood glucose testing mentioned above, as well as blood pressure, food intake records, etc., richer health data monitoring can not only let people understand the state of the body, but also can be used as a guide for healthy living, such as a sudden spike in blood sugar level. Food intake records can be traced back to whether it is caused by food in order to adjust the recipe.

These data can also be used as an early warning reminder of some diseases, whether you should go to the hospital for an in-depth examination.

Of course, more in-depth health data is very likely to require related approvals. For example, the ECG electrocardiogram function on the Apple Watch, in addition to the FDA certification in the United States, still needs approval in the world.

With the certification of professional institutions, the accuracy of its data can also be recognized to a certain extent.

In an era when personal data is increasingly valued, the privacy issues of smart watches also need to be taken seriously, especially in the future where health status can be judged through data, smart watches, like mobile phones, are products that people use personally, which is caused by data leaks. The problem is also serious. There were earlier cases where health data was used as the basis for insurance service recommendations.

In the movie “Transcendental Hacker”, there is also a plot of excessive abuse of health data. The protagonist played by John Nedpp can understand the heroine’s emotions without being around by detecting the heroine’s physical data.

Tracking a partner privately without permission is undoubtedly an invasion of personal privacy, and it is also easy to have a bad influence on the relationship between the partners.

On the other hand, when health data becomes more and more abundant, will it alienate our lives like the Internet? Earlier, some people paid too much attention to quantitative food calorie data when losing weight, and found that there are fewer and fewer foods that can be eaten. It has caused greater psychological anxiety and even psychological problems.

Smart watches led by Apple Watch have improved people’s sports and even health experience with more accurate data, and at the same time made quantitative life a part of people’s lifestyle.

However, various news in recent years have told us that technology or tools have never been more than one side. How to make good use of tools instead of being negatively affected by tools is a problem that companies such as Apple and even ordinary users need to think about.

That’s it.

That’s it.

This is a complaint made by many friends around me after staying up late to watch the WWDC Developer Conference. The update rate is not too big, the new iPadOS has not liberated the productivity of the M1 chip version of the iPad Pro, and the attractiveness of changing the phone is low.

In the Apple product lineup, there is another product that is similar to the iPad Pro, and that is the Apple Watch. Since Apple Watch 4, the subsequent generations of products have not been updated much.

What’s more, the lower price of Apple Watch SE is not too far from the Apple Watch 6 in terms of core functional experience, which makes it more or less embarrassing to have a higher positioning and price, and Apple Watch users will inevitably have less willingness to change. some.

If you want to change this status quo, you must make drastic updates and adjustments to the product. Judging from the current exposure information of Bloomberg and other media, the changes in the next-generation Apple Watch have begun to take shape.

With narrower screen borders and better performance, Apple Watch 7 has changed?

The first is the change in appearance. According to a report by the well-known whistleblower Jon Prosser, Apple will use a similar design to the iPhone 12 on the Apple Watch 7, that is, it will adopt more right-angled edge designs.

Earlier, Apple analysts also said that Apple may update the appearance design of Apple Watch in 2021. The two predictions for Apple products are more than 70% accurate, and there is still a certain degree of credibility..

The shape is the most intuitive difference that people feel, and it is also one of the important ways to distinguish between the new and the old. Its boosting effect on sales has been verified by products such as iPhone 12, which may be one of the reasons why Apple changed its design.

In addition, Bloomberg, which also has a high rate of prediction accuracy, recently released a report on the next-generation Apple Watch. It stated that the Apple Watch released this year will cause major changes in both the appearance and the inside.

In terms of screen, the next generation of Apple Watch will adopt a narrower screen frame, which means that the screen size may increase. The previous 4th generation has also reduced the screen frame as a major change.

▲Comparison of the screen size of Apple Watch 4 and Apple Watch 3

At the same time, Apple may use new screen technology to reduce the gap between the display and the glass cover, but the watch will be thicker overall.

Next is the heavyweight, Bloomberg said that Apple Watch 7 will use a faster chip.

At present, the S6 chip used in the sixth generation is based on the two small cores of the A13. The A13 is manufactured based on the 7nm process. Now Apple has used 5nm for both the M1 chip on the Mac and the latest A14 chip process. , The next-generation S7 chip, the same 5nm process seems to be the natural choice.

More advanced craftsmanship can often improve performance, reduce energy consumption, and reduce battery life pressure. The new Mac equipped with the M1 chip is the best case.

Of course, whether the battery life can be improved depends on the implementation of Apple’s product planning, and an increased screen often means an increase in energy consumption. It is not easy to say whether the battery life will increase or decrease under one increase and one decrease.

Battery life is now one of the biggest experience pain points of Apple Watch. It is really troublesome to charge a day as a portable device, and functions like sleep monitoring conflict with people’s habit of charging at night.

Another change is the feature update of Ultra Wideband Technology (UWB). As early as Apple Watch 6, Apple installed the U1 chip, but there have been few applications for related functions.

According to the characteristics of UWB technology near field communication, the new update is likely to interact with more smart devices. There are also related functions in the new system watchOS 8. Apple Watch will become a smart home butler, not only can manage smart home devices, but also similar Remind to lock the door, automatically turn on the lights and other functions.

▲Remind you that the door is not locked

Finally, there are changes in health functions. Although functions such as blood oxygen detection and electrocardiogram have become one of the core differences between the highest-positioned Apple Watch 6 and other models, the changes in this aspect of the next-generation Apple Watch are still unclear.

Bloomberg said that the temperature test at this year’s meeting may have to wait until next year. As for the non-invasive blood oxygen test that can measure blood glucose levels without blood sampling, it takes longer for commercial use. For diabetic patients, blood glucose testing at any time is important for the condition. It is very meaningful for monitoring.

The next-generation Apple Watch SE and outdoor version will also be released next year.

The popularity of Apple Watch

Today’s Apple Watch has already proven its value. Market data is the best proof. According to data research institutions Counterpoint ResearchAccording to the report, global smartwatch shipments in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 35% year-on-year, and Apple Watch accounted for nearly one-third of the market.

It is foreseeable that manufacturers, including Apple, will still promote the popularization of smart watches, but this cannot be solved quickly by polishing products alone.

As a product that focuses on the sports and health market, the barriers to use and learning of smart watches are much higher than those of mobile phones. I once asked a friend who has been using Apple Watch to assist in fitness for many years. I couldn’t help but sigh while opening up a new world. The matter of exercise depends not only on personal wishes, but also on the use of tools.

According to a friend’s introduction, Apple Watch can detect a number of data during exercise, and more importantly, use the data to determine whether your exercise is correct, and in which areas need to be improved.

Taking swimming as an example, in addition to common calories, Apple Watch will also give out heart rate, speed, distance and other data, which mainly use speed and heart rate to judge whether the swimming style is correct and whether swimming is effective in reducing fat.

Many people do not feel too strenuous when learning breaststroke, and at this time his posture is often inclined in the water, the posture is not considered standard, corresponding to the exercise data is slow speed and low heart rate.

When I asked my friend how to use the exercise data tracked by Apple Watch to adjust swimming style, she said:

After learning breaststroke, I swam in a lap, and my heart rate was as high as 160, but the speed reached 5 minutes per 100 meters. That means my posture is wrong and swimming is not efficient. At this point, what I have to do is adjust my breath to lower my heart rate, and then pay attention to the next lap of swimming stretching and breathing frequency.

After learning breaststroke, I swam in a lap, and my heart rate was as high as 160, but the speed reached 5 minutes per 100 meters. That means my posture is wrong and swimming is not efficient. At this point, what I have to do is adjust my breath to lower my heart rate, and then pay attention to the next lap of swimming stretching and breathing frequency.

Speaking of this, you probably already understand that it is necessary to learn to use exercise data to judge exercise status and improve exercise ability. This is also related to personal exercise experience. As an exercise aid, Apple Watch must lower the threshold for popularization.

It is not that Apple has worked hard for this. Social functions are one of them. Users can share exercise data with friends and family through iMessage and other functions, while functions like “7-day competition” support mutual PK between users through reminders and notifications. Encourage both parties to complete the corresponding amount of exercise.

This is also one of the answers many users argue about why they choose Apple Watch instead of professional sports watches. In addition to being a sports measurement tool, smart watches can also promote people to better establish healthy exercise habits through social services.

At the same time, you can judge your physical ability through exercise data. Taking running as an example, the heart rate of professional runners is different from that of ordinary people. Although everyone is within the normal heart rate range, professional runners have stronger cardiorespiratory capabilities and are calmer. The resting heart rate in the state is also lower (usually around 50 beats per minute).

Of course, sports social networking is more limited to communication in a circle, and the threshold for direct tutorials is lower. In this regard, brands such as Huawei and OPPO are obviously doing better in China. They directly have supporting related tutorial services and provide a variety of Sports mode.

The fitness sports subscription service launched by Apple has not been launched in China, and whether the tutorials match the physical fitness of the Chinese is also a question mark.

▲ Fitness+ supports follow-up training.

This part of the lack can only be filled by keep and sports content on social media, which is also one of the values ​​of their existence.

The future of smart watches

Let more people know about smart watches through sports-related content services, which is more like a horizontal product popularization, and the vertical exploration of the smart watch category is to add more categories of health data monitoring.

Related functions are not only being explored by Apple, but also by manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi.

In addition to the non-invasive blood glucose testing mentioned above, as well as blood pressure, food intake records, etc., richer health data monitoring can not only let people understand the state of the body, but also can be used as a guide for healthy living, such as a sudden spike in blood sugar level. Food intake records can be traced back to whether it is caused by food in order to adjust the recipe.

These data can also be used as an early warning reminder of some diseases, whether you should go to the hospital for an in-depth examination.

Of course, more in-depth health data is very likely to require related approvals. For example, the ECG electrocardiogram function on the Apple Watch, in addition to the FDA certification in the United States, still needs approval in the world.

With the certification of professional institutions, the accuracy of its data can also be recognized to a certain extent.

In an era when personal data is increasingly valued, the privacy issues of smart watches also need to be taken seriously, especially in the future where health status can be judged through data, smart watches, like mobile phones, are products that people use personally, which is caused by data leaks. The problem is also serious. There were earlier cases where health data was used as the basis for insurance service recommendations.

In the movie “Transcendental Hacker”, there is also a plot of excessive abuse of health data. The protagonist played by John Nedpp can understand the heroine’s emotions without being around by detecting the heroine’s physical data.

Tracking a partner privately without permission is undoubtedly an invasion of personal privacy, and it is also easy to have a bad influence on the relationship between the partners.

On the other hand, when health data becomes more and more abundant, will it alienate our lives like the Internet? Earlier, some people paid too much attention to quantitative food calorie data when losing weight, and found that there are fewer and fewer foods to eat. It has caused greater psychological anxiety and even psychological problems.

Smart watches led by Apple Watch have improved people’s sports and even health experience with more accurate data, and at the same time made quantitative life a part of people’s lifestyle.

However, various news in recent years have told us that technology or tools have never been more than one side. How to make good use of tools instead of being negatively affected by tools is a problem that companies such as Apple and even ordinary users need to think about.

#Welcome to follow Aifaner’s official WeChat account: Aifaner (WeChat ID: ifanr), more exciting content will be provided to you as soon as possible.

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As reflected in the name of TIM-3, current research on it is mainly focused on T cells. TIM-3 is regarded as a marker molecule of T cell exhaustion in chronic viral infection and cancer models[2].

Although multiple drugs targeting TIM-3 have entered clinical trials[1], but The mechanism of blocking TIM-3’s anti-tumor activity is still a bit vague Because TIM-3 is also expressed on many other immune cells, do immune cells other than T cells participate in its anti-cancer effect, or even play a more important role?

On June 9, 2021, the Vijay K. Kuchroo team from Harvard Medical School published important research results in the journal Nature. They found Blocking TIM-3 on dendritic cells (DCs) may play a more critical role in enhancing anti-tumor immunity [3]!

Screenshot of the paper’s homepage

In order to understand the specific functional mechanism of TIM-3, the researchers used a large number of conditional knockout mouse models.They found that in After knocking out TIM-3 in CD4 and CD8+ T cells at the same time, tumor growth was inhibited to a certain extent, but not very significant ;and Specific knockout of TIM-3 in CD8+ T cells, regulatory T cells or NK cells does not affect tumor growth .

This result is a bit surprising, but the researchers quickly thought, would TIM-3 on myeloid cells have a more important function?

The researchers found through single-cell sequencing combined with flow cytometry that High expression of TIM-3 in DC1s and migDCs (migDCs) in tumors .in After specifically knocking out TIM-3 in DCs, tumor growth was significantly inhibited, and This effect is stronger than TIM-3 knocking out T cells .

Knock out TIM-3 in dendritic cells (gene name is Havcr2), the tumor is significantly suppressed

So, how does TIM-3 on DCs affect the anti-tumor immune response?

With the help of single-cell sequencing results, the researchers found that after knocking out TIM-3 in DCs, the number of CD8+ T cells infiltrated in the tumor increased. A more detailed analysis found that Early activation, effect, memory, memory precursor T cells increased , These T cells play a key role in the anti-tumor immune response[4].

Streaming analysis also confirmed that in After conditionally knocking out the TIM-3 of DCs, the memory precursor CD8+ T cells and effector T cells infiltrated in the tumor increased significantly .

After knocking out TIM-3 of DCs, memory precursor CD8+ T cells (TCF1) and effector T cells (CX3CR1, T-bet, Ki67) increased

One of the main functions of DCs is to promote the anti-tumor immune function of antigen-specific CD8+ T cells through antigen presentation[5].Further analyzing the myeloid cells in single-cell sequencing, the researchers found Some genes related to MHC class I antigen presentation are significantly elevated .

Mouse experiments also confirmed that after knocking out the TIM-3 of DCs, the proportion of antigen-specific CD8+ T cells in the tumor was significantly increased, and it had a stronger killing potential.Description Inhibition of TIM-3 can enhance antigen-specific immune response .

After knocking out the TIM-3 of DCs, the proportion of antigen-specific CD8+ T cells increases and has a stronger killing potential

After studying the mechanism at the cellular level, the researchers began to further explore more detailed molecular mechanisms.

The researchers first analyzed the interaction between CD8+ T cells and DCs based on single-cell sequencing technology. The results showed that after knocking out the TIM-3 of DCs, the ligand-receptor interaction scores of Il18–Il18r1 and Il18–Il18rap increased significantly.Analysis of cytokines in tumor homogenate also found Significantly increased levels of IL-1β and IL-18 .

Friends who are familiar with inflammasomes must be able to think that inflammasomes mediate the activation and release of IL-1β and IL-18. Does knocking out TIM-3 activate the inflammasomes?

Pattern diagram of inflammasome activation[6]

Sure enough, analyzing single-cell sequencing data, the researchers found that in the TIM-3 knockout DCs, inflammasome-related gene characteristics were significantly enriched.

Inflammasomes can be activated by pathogen-related molecular patterns (PAMP) and damage-related molecular patterns (DAMP)[7]Since the research here did not involve pathogens, researchers naturally wondered whether endogenous DAMP (such as reactive oxygen species, oxidized lipids, and oxidized DNA) activated the inflammasomes?

Researchers found that in TIM-3 knock-out DCs, the enrichment level of oxidative stress-related gene characteristics was significantly increased, and flow analysis also confirmed Increased ROS levels in DC1s and mDCs .Furthermore, the researchers treated mice with tumors with antioxidants (N-acetylcysteine) and found that The tumor suppressor effect brought by knocking out TIM-3 is completely eliminated, and the increase in IL-1β levels in the tumor is also completely eliminated .

After knocking out TIM-3, the level of ROS in DC1s and migDCs increased

So, is the activation of the inflammasome pathway the reason for the enhanced anti-tumor immune response?

Researchers used three ways to inhibit the inflammasome pathway (inhibition of caspase1, inhibition of NLRP3 inflammasome, inhibition of IL-1β/IL-18, friends can check the above schematic diagram), and found The anti-tumor effect enhanced by knocking out TIM-3 completely disappears, and the function-enhancing effect of CD8+ T cells is also eliminated .

Inhibition of the inflammasome pathway can eliminate the immune enhancement effect of blocking TIM-3

Overall, this study found that compared to T cells, TIM-3 on DCs may play a more critical role in tumor immunity , This discovery has a certain subversive significance to people’s previous cognition.

The author analyzes the mechanism from the perspectives of cell function changes in the tumor microenvironment and changes in molecular pathways in DCs, but this article still leaves many unanswered questions.

For example, how does knocking out TIM-3 lead to increased levels of oxidative stress in DCs? In addition, the experimental evidence of the relationship between oxidative stress and inflammasome activation in this article is still weak. In this model, is it possible that the inflammasome may be activated by other factors?

How does the activation of inflammasome affect the function of DCs and T cells? Is it possible that TIM-3 may affect the function of DCs through other mechanisms?For example, in the latest issue of Immunity, Brian Ruffell and others believe that Blocking TIM-3 contributes to the activation of the cGAS-STING pathway in DCs, thereby promoting the anti-tumor immune response [8].

Although TIM-3 still has a lot to be studied, it is worth looking forward to that many TIM-3 antibodies have entered clinical trials, including some domestic drugs. It is hoped that these drugs can be marketed as soon as possible and benefit more patients.

references

1. Siddiqui I, Schaeuble K, Chennupati V, et al. Intratumoral Tcf1(+)PD-1(+)CD8(+) T Cells with Stem-like Properties Promote Tumor Control in Response to Vaccination and Checkpoint Blockade Immunotherapy. Immunity. Jan 15 2019;50(1):195-211 e10. doi:10.1016/j.immuni.2018.12.021

2. Roberts EW, Broz ML, Binnewies M, et al. Critical Role for CD103(+)/CD141(+) Dendritic Cells Bearing CCR7 for Tumor Antigen Trafficking and Priming of T Cell Immunity in Melanoma. Cancer Cell. Aug 8 2016; 30(2):324-336. doi:10.1016/j.ccell.2016.06.003

3. Terlizzi M, Casolaro V, Pinto A, Sorrentino R. Inflammasome: cancer’s friend or foe? Pharmacol Ther. Jul 2014;143(1):24-33. doi:10.1016/j.pharmthera.2014.02.002

4. de Mingo Pulido A, Hanggi K, Celias DP, et al. The inhibitory receptor TIM-3 limits activation of the cGAS-STING pathway in intra-tumoral dendritic cells by suppressing extracellular DNA uptake. Immunity. Jun 8 2021;54( 6):1154-1167 e7. doi:10.1016/j.immuni.2021.04.019

Since the second half of 2019, pig raising has become the new wealth code. In addition to traditional pig breeding companies, real estate companies such as Vanke, Country Garden and some Internet companies have started to raise pigs. In 2020, pig companies have indeed made unprecedented profits. Tianbang shares have increased their profits by more than 1,000 times a year, but the result of relying on the sky is that the profits of pig companies will shrink sharply when the price of pigs falls after the year.

The pigs that fly into the air have a one-year profit exceeding 4.6 times the total since the listing

In fact, the same is true. As long as the pigs can be raised alive to the slaughter, a lot of money can be made. In this wave of pig cycles, the price of pork rose from about ten yuan a catty to more than fifty yuan a catty.

At present, most pig companies have disclosed performance data for 2020, which is basically a big increase as expected, and some even earn enough profits for decades in a year.

On April 21, Tianbang Co., Ltd. announced its 2020 performance report. It achieved operating income of 10.764 billion, a year-on-year increase of 79.2%, realized a net profit of 3.245 billion attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 3131.98%, and realized a non-net profit of 3.312 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106917.13 %.

Interestingly, since Tianbang shares went public in 2007, its main business includes pig breeding and pork product processing, pig vaccines, pig feed and aquatic feed, and pig breeding technical services. Based on historical data as of 2019 It can be seen that the total net profit of the company attributable to the parent is only 702 million, and the net profit in 2020 is 4.6 times that.

In other words, no matter how long this strong performance can last, Tianbang has made more than sixty years of profits in this year alone. Previously, due to the impact of African swine fever, the national pork production capacity fell off a cliff in 2019. Although it is in the process of recovery in 2020, the market is still in short supply, resulting in a high level of live pig market prices throughout the year.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs in 2020 is 34.03 yuan/kg, a sharp increase of 60.36% year-on-year, while the annual report of Tianbang shares shows that the average sales price of the company’s multi-breed combination of live pigs reached 51.46 yuan/kg, an increase of 177% year-on-year . In addition, Tianbang shares achieved 3.0778 million pigs for slaughter throughout the year, an increase of 26.17% year-on-year. Among them, the number of breeding pigs for slaughter was 329,100, an increase of 515% year-on-year, and the number of piglets for slaughter was 1.687 million, an increase of 443% year-on-year. The main reason for the huge increase in company profits.

On the 22nd, Wen’s shares also published its annual report. In 2020, operating income was 74.923 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%, but the net profit attributable to the parent was only 7.426 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 46.83%, and non-net profit was only 6.381 billion, a year-on-year decrease. 51.11%. Judging from the current leading pig companies that have publicly disclosed their performance, Wen’s shares are also the only pig company that has experienced negative profit growth.

Unlike Tianbang, which only breeds live pigs, Wen’s breeding business includes live pigs and white feather chickens and other poultry. In 2020, the revenue of pig farming will increase by 10.84% ​​year-on-year, and the gross profit rate will increase by 1.74%. However, the revenue of broiler and other farming products fell by 9.3% and 1.92% respectively. Especially when the price of broiler chicken and the price of live pigs fluctuated in the opposite direction, the gross profit margin of the broiler business fell sharply by 25.93% to 0.38%, which is also the company’s net profit. One of the main reasons for the decline.

Pig prices fell, performance fell, piglet market enthusiasm continued

Unlike the elated annual report, the quarterly report of the pig company is full of sorrows.

From New Year’s Day to early April, pork prices were nearly cut in half, with a drop of 43.74%. Especially after the Spring Festival, market demand was weak. Since March, the price of pigs has continued to decline. As of April 9, the average domestic pig price was 20.84 yuan/kg, a drop of 30.99% from March 2.

A few days ago, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also said that as the supply and demand situation continues to improve, pork prices have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, falling to about 40 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of about 25%. After April 9th, the pig price bottomed out and rebounded. As of the 21st, the pig price has experienced two short-term rebounds.

But at the same time, the cost of raising pigs has increased, with corn up 47.0% year-on-year, and compound feed for fat pigs up 16.1% year-on-year. Pig prices fell and feed prices climbed. In the end, the price of pigs and grains fell rapidly. In late March, it fell to around 9.23, and it was as high as 20 in the same period in 2020. It is currently falling back to the level of August 2019.

In such a market environment, the quarterly reports of pig companies have almost all fallen. The profit of Tianbang shares shrank to 191 million to 238 million, a year-on-year decrease of 50%-60%. Zhengbang’s net profit also fell to 205 million to 305 million, a year-on-year decrease of 66.32%-77.36%. Wen’s shares realized net profit attributable to the parent 544 million, a year-on-year decrease of 71.28%.

The reason is mostly due to the sharp decline in domestic pig prices and the superimposed increase in corn and other feed prices to squeeze profits. In addition, the slaughter structure of live pigs is also known as one of the other major influencing factors. Early elimination of some sows and early slaughter of fat pigs to avoid the risk of epidemic accounted for a relatively high proportion, while breeding pigs and piglets accounted for a relatively small proportion.

At present, only Muyuan’s first quarterly report has achieved growth. The company expects the net profit attributable to the mother will reach 6.7 billion to 7.3 billion, an increase of 62.17%-76.7% year-on-year. The company said that it was due to the expansion of the scale of pig farming and sales of 7.72 million pigs in the first quarter. , An increase of 201.09% year-on-year.

In fact, my country has always been a big country for pig breeding and consumption. However, due to various factors, it has been plagued by the “pig cycle” all the year round. This time, after many real estate companies and Internet companies have entered the pig breeding market, can they change the problem? The situation of the neck may be the point.

Different from the volatility and decline of live pig prices, since December 2020, piglet prices have risen steadily. Even if they decline after the year, they are still higher than the live pig market prices. From this perspective, the market supply has more momentum for continuous pig raising. .

Perhaps it is a question of the uncertainty of the pig breeding sales market. The live pig futures listed on DCE have continued to fluctuate and fall after the market plummeted, and the pork sector in the secondary market is also more negative than positive. (Blue Whale Capital Xu Xiaochun xuxiaochun@lanjinger.com)