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Warnings from economists Pension system on the brink of collapse?

Status: 21.06.2021 10:35 a.m.

Too few contributors and high household burdens – experts repeatedly point out the problems of statutory pension insurance. Does that inevitably lead to retirement at 68 or even 70? By Andreas Braun, tagesschau.de The criticism of the German pension insurance system, which has been publicly discussed for weeks, is sharp. The entire structure of the pay-as-you-go pension has been called into question by economists in recent weeks. Many of the criticisms have been known for a long time, but above all caused a stir Paper of the scientific advisory board at the Federal Ministry of Economics , an advisory body within the federal government. Economics Minister Peter Altmaier himself presented the committee’s proposals as “not binding” on his ministry The advisory board is “independent”.

Pension and contribution guarantees aggravate the situation

With their description of the state of the German pension insurance system, the authors of the study are anything but alone among experts. You see “suddenly increasing financing problems” approaching the pension funds. These problems are mainly caused by the guarantee of the pension level introduced in 2018 at 48 percent of the average wage and the limitation of pension contributions to a maximum of 20 percent.

Together with the introduction of the “pension at 63”, this led to the deficit within the pension insurance system being further expanded. More than a quarter of the federal budget had to be diverted to the pension fund in 2019 to fill this gap. In 2040, almost half of the federal funds are threatened to be used for this.

Increasing life expectancy

The conclusion of the economists of the advisory board with its chairman, the Munich economics professor Klaus M. Schmidt, reads: The coupling of the retirement age to life expectancy is “inevitable”. So if Germans tend to live longer and receive longer pensions, the start of retirement will have to be pushed back accordingly. This would correspond to a “pension at 68” in around 20 years.

In addition, the experts are calling for pension increases no longer to be carried out consistently in the future. While existing pensions should only increase with the development of purchasing power, a guarantee of 48 percent, for example, can still be guaranteed for “access pensions”, ie employees who are going into retirement.

Criticism of “unsocial” proposals

While politicians from many parties immediately criticized the committee’s proposals as “anti-social” or unrealistic, the authors also received support from academia from other quarters. The researchers from the employer-related Institute of the German Economy (IW) also see a further extension of the working life as a sensible way to stabilize the German pension system.

IW study director Jochen Pimpertz sees this as an opportunity “to slow down the rise in premiums and at the same time to stabilize the security level”. He recommends raising the retirement age from 2031 by two months for each year of birth. In 2052, the standard retirement age would then be 70 years. The Freiburg economist Bernd Raffelhüschen also sees a dramatic need for reform in the pension system in Germany. The federal government can only choose between “plague and cholera,” he said in a recent interview. Either the contribution rates for the pension fund or the federal subsidy would have to be drastically increased. In the past few years, the federal government gave the “majority of the elderly” too generous gifts, he said.

Swedish stock pension model

Martin Werding, professor at the Ruhr University in Bochum, is calling for a radical move away from today’s pure pay-as-you-go financing. Werding has calculated that a “share pension”, in which employees invest two percent of their gross income in an equity fund, could increase pension payments by up to 30 percent for average earners who have been insured for many years. The consumer advice centers also consider such a provision component, which is based, for example, on the Swedish pension model, to be sensible. Klaus Müller, member of the board of directors of the Federal Association of Consumer Organizations, sees the share investment as an opportunity to get “more money in old age” for insured persons.

But even a fundamental reform of the pension system is unlikely to close the gap between earned income and retirement income for many contributors. The Riester pension, which was introduced around 20 years ago , however, many experts are convinced that it is hardly suitable for this. There are increasing votes for Riester subsidies to expire under a new federal government in autumn. A prominent critic of the Riester model is, for example, the economist and former “economy” Bert Rürup. He advocates pension accounts that could be managed by a foundation and should be accessible to all citizens. Here, too, the idea is that additional contributions are invested primarily in the capital market and converted into payment plans in old age that supplement the statutory pension

“I promise to take them home,” said Rommel, the man’s voice distorted behind the two masks he wore on his face. Mr. Rommel finally broke his promise. Just three days later, Rommel’s brother Juan Carlos, 52 years old, died waiting for his turn to be used in the active treatment room at Rebagliati hospital in the capital Lima. The very next day, Rommel’s 80-year-old mother died of encephalitis, a symptom the doctor said was Covid-19. Four days after the mother’s death, Rommel’s father also passed away. “The pain is really so great, I cannot face this truth,” Mr. Rommel could not hide his agony. Massacre in South America On April 18, Peru experienced the deadliest day since the pandemic broke out with 433 patients dying of Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to more than 57,000. New strains, the most serious of which are strain P1, are pushing Peru into the next wave of epidemics, the country’s authorities warned. And Peru is no exception in South America. Latin American countries are in despair when the P1 strain spreads faster than ever, making the epidemic situation worse and worse. New cases and deaths rose again in Argentina, Boliva, Peru, Venezueala and Uruguay, with the P1 strain being thought to be the cause behind the new epidemic wave. Hospitals in many South American cities are overcrowded due to too many patients with Covid-19. Photo: AP. “The Brazilian sea of ​​strains has infiltrated nearly every corner of the region,” warned Peruvian Health Minister Osscar Ugarte. Peru, one of the most serious outbreaks in the world, is now entering the deadliest phase of the pandemic. Ester Sabino, a Brazilian scientist tracking the spread of the P1 strain, said genetic analysis confirmed the P1 strain appeared from the city of Manaus in the Brazilian state of Amazon in the second half of November 2020. In just a few weeks, Manaus gained worldwide fame after city hospitals were overwhelmed by a surge in patients. The P1 strain knocked out the medical system at the places it passed, depleting the oxygen stores, causing many patients to die from not receiving timely treatment. “What we are witnessing is a massacre,” said a health worker at Manaus. Sabino initially hoped the Brazilian epidemic, along with the spread of the P1 strain, could be under control by 2021 when the vaccine begins to be widely distributed. But the Brazilian authorities failed. The spread of the P1 strain is now completely out of control. In Araraquara, a city south of Sao Paulo, a blockade was issued after the outbreak of P1 positive cases. Across Brazil, hospitals are overflowing with Covid-19 patients, many of them in their youths, in contrast to what happened in the early onset of the epidemic. The number of deaths in Brazil doubled in just three months, from 195,000 in early January to more than 384,000 as of April 23. “This strain not only spread much more strongly, it also significantly reduced the effectiveness of the vaccine, increasing the rate of re-infection,” said Antonio Quispe, a Peruvian epidemiologist. Quispe described the P1 strain spreading “quickly and brutally”, bringing a bad nightmare to South America. Incubator of dangerous strains Fearing new strains with vaccine resistance, governments of some countries have tightened traffic control and closed borders with South America. Recently, France has banned all flights from Brazil, French Prime Minister Jean Castex explained that Brazil is experiencing a “terrible” epidemic. “Europe has the right to fear what is happening in Brazil. The more the virus spreads, the more new strains appear. The situation is now extremely, extremely serious,” said Marcos Boulos, infectious disease expert. from the University of Sao Paulo, said. South American countries, where the epidemic is spreading out of control, provide ideal environments for the incubation of new virus strains, Boulos warned. Mr. Boulos’s judgment was correct in India. Variant B.1.617 – Indian variant – is the product of the superinfection in the South Asian country. Last week, India has twice set a world record for corona virus cases on April 22-23. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi likened the health crisis to a “hurricane” that swept across the country. Scientist Miguel Nicolelis criticizes President Jair Bolsonaro’s erroneous strategy that has turned Brazil, South America’s most populous nation, into a global corona virus threat. The coffin carrying the body of the deceased Covid-19 patient is taken to a cemetery in Manaus, Brazil. Photo: AFP. “Brazil is now like an incubator, creating all kinds of strains of the virus,” said Nicolelis. While some mutations can weaken the virus, others have the potential to make the virus spread more aggressively, or increase their virulence, the scientist warns. Scientists also rang alarm bells about the epidemic situation in India’s 1.3 billion population. “Change can happen even faster there. India is paving the way for the advent of countless mutations. It’s a terrifying prospect,” warned Nicoleles. “Countries like Brazil and India cannot be spurned or abandoned. They need help, because disease is not a problem for any country, it is a worldwide problem,” said Nicolelis. . In Lima, Mr. Rommel still does not know what type of virus has killed three of his relatives. Even so, the man understands the scale of the disaster engulfing the country, where more than 57,000 people have died from Covid-19. “There are 30 patients waiting in line for each intensive care bed, and they prioritize young patients,” which was what the doctor told Rommel when he took his brother Joan Carlos to the hospital at the end of the month. 3. After being admitted to the hospital, Rommel’s brother never got a chance to leave the emergency room. He died only 3 days after pneumonia and pneumothorax. “The plague here is like a war where people are dying because they can’t find a hospital bed,” Rommel said sourly. India ‘broke the game’ in the second wave of Covid-19 India is being devastated by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. In just 24 hours, the number of deaths due to the country’s pandemic reached 2,000 people and more than 300,000 new cases.

Bright Side brings together 10 rare creatures that are on the brink of extinction. Global mountain gorilla Currently the mountain gorilla has increased to about 1,063. They can only be found in protected forests. This is evidence that conservation efforts can bring a species back on the brink of extinction. However, illegal human hunting remains a major threat to the fauna of Bwindi-Sarambwe. Sao la The saola species was discovered in the Annamite forests of Vietnam. The main threat to saola is hunting activities and environmental climate impacts. That is why many conservation organizations have collaborated to create a safe environment for them in nature. Animal with dunnart bag This tiny creature can only be found on Australia’s Kangaroo Island, with an estimated population of less than 500. The widespread cleaning of the vegetation by humans has put the dunnart in a very dangerous situation. In addition, wildfires in Australia in 2019 and 2020 have burned 95% of the species. That is why a closed sanctuary was created to keep dunnart and other endangered species safe. Iberian lynx This rare species can only be found in the jungles of southwest Spain. From 1985 to 2001, their population decreased by 87%; So far, there are about 400 lynx in the wild. Their natural habitat continues to be destroyed by new highways and cut down trees. Black-footed ferret While people thought they were extinct, tiny creatures have proven to still exist. However, their population is rapidly declining due to disease and the loss of their natural habitat. Their total population is estimated at around 370 in the wild. Massive restoration efforts by many federal agencies and zoos have provided space for the weasels to survive. Gharial crocodile In 2010, only 15 crocodiles were found in the Gandak River in Bihar. That’s why in 2014, a conservation initiative freed 30 crocodiles from captivity and returned them to the river, and their population began to increase. Kakapo For the first time in 70 years, the kakapo population is increasing with about 213 species of birds existing. Only during the 2018-2019 breeding season, 71 young survived, which is a record number for this species. The recovery team tries to make sure the birds stay healthy and protected from infection. Their next goal is to find a good habitat for the birds as disease is their main threat. Canadian harbor seals Found in Quebec, this is the only species of its kind that can only survive in fresh water thanks to fish. To date, only more than 100 live in the area. The cause can be attributed to human hunting. Also, in many cases, seals get trapped in their gears and cannot free themselves. Leopard Amur This leopard has found a way to survive in the jungle in the Russian Far East. They live up to 15 years in the wild and more than 20 years in captivity. They have an amazing ability to run very fast and jump high. However, the loss of habitat and human activity has reduced their number to about 84 individuals. Vaquita dolphin This very rare marine mammal was discovered only in 1958. However, in recent years, vaquitas dolphins have been victims of illegal fishing activities. They are often trapped in fishing nets. That is why their population is only about 10 in the Gulf of Mexico. They can be found in shallow water but will quickly swim away if a boat approaches them.

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After sunset in Jaffna, Anthony Vigrado dived into the waters of Palk Bay to catch sea cucumbers – a prickly skin creature that has grown in value and has been his main source of income for the past 12 years.

But after 10 hours of searching, what he got is a fraction of what he used to be. The reason is that sea cucumbers have been extensively exploited in the northern coasts of Sri Lanka and southern India.

Treasures of the sea

“Illegal fishermen are fishing illegally in the places where we often dive for sea cucumbers. We are losing income and a livelihood for them, ”said the 31-year-old fisherman.

Sea cucumbers are echinoderms with a soft, tubular body resembling a vegetable of the same name. Photo: Guardian.

Sea cucumbers are echinoderms with a soft, tubular body resembling a vegetable of the same name. They are an unusual animal but play an important role in the marine ecosystem. When they eat debris in sediments, they regenerate nutrients and excrete nitrogen, ammonia and calcium carbonate – components that make up coral reefs. Sea cucumber also helps slow ocean acidification due to human activity.

The demand for sea cucumbers is huge in China and Southeast Asian countries, where they are processed into delicious dishes and used in traditional remedies. Dried sea cucumber is called calche-de-mer or trepang. They are also considered by many, especially China, an aphrodisiac.

This has made the sea cucumber trade become “super profitable”. Therefore, this animal is in danger of extinction. In the 1980s, sea cucumber was priced below 70 USD / kg, now the price has increased to more than 270 USD / kg. The rare species cost up to nearly 3,500 USD / kg.

Over the years, sea cucumbers in Palk Bay and Mannar Bay are overfished. For the most expensive species, the number of individuals has dropped by more than 60% globally.

Fishermen harvested sea cucumbers caught on Mannar Bay. Photo: Guardian.

Now, this tiny tropical island has become a hotspot for smuggling and illegal sea cucumber fishing. Like Vigrado, more than 10,000 fishing families living along Sri Lanka’s north coast are anxious about their livelihoods.

Chamari Dissanayake, Senior Lecturer in Zoology at Sri Jayewardenepura University in Sri Lanka, said: “The number of sea cucumbers is plummeting due to overfishing. It affects the biodiversity and the livelihoods of coastal fishermen who have long depended on this profession ”.

Vigrado said many illegal fishing boats damaged the facilities and equipment of local fishermen to catch sea cucumbers, causing some people to commit suicide because they could not pay the debt.

“They are grabbing everything”

AM Stanny Lambert, a 31-year-old fisherman from Vankalai in Mannar, said he was sad and angry at these crimes.

“It was unethical and we were stuck, because they were doing everything in front of us,” he said. Lambert and his father have been licensed to fish for 11 years and are the breadwinner of the family.

Most reported offenses take advantage of different regulations from neighboring countries. While Sri Lanka issued fishing permits and permits the export of sea cucumbers, India has completely banned all trade in these animals since 2001.

As a result, sea cucumbers are illegally caught in India and smuggled into Sri Lanka, where they are legally exported to Southeast Asia, or exported from India under fake labels.

Marine animal protection forces in Lakshadweep Islands, India seized 486 sea cucumbers died in March 2021. Photo: Lakshadweep Forest Management Board.

In August 2020, three men were caught smuggling nearly 1,000 kg of sea cucumber from Tamil Nadu in India to Sri Lanka via Mannar Bay. The Indian Coast Guard priced these sea cucumbers to nearly $ 700,000 in the international market. A similar case was reported in March 2021.

Teale Phelps Bondaroff, research director at OceansAsia, an organization that recently mapped sea cucumber arrests and seizures in the two countries, said: “If you have a legitimate market near a market, illegal, legal markets will become huge “fish wash” dens.

Exhausted

For many years, the Sri Lankan and Indian authorities have worked to combat this type of marine crime. But the growing number of arrests shows that illegal trade is spreading to areas that have never been affected before.

Nowadays, as the value of animals is increasing, exploitation is also becoming more common. Great demand for sea cucumbers has led to deadly violence in Mexico, related to yakuza criminal organizations in Japan, and smuggling between Tanzania and Zanzibar.

According to OceansAsia, the network of organized sea cucumber fishing and smuggling criminals is spreading from the Palk Bay and Mannar Bay into untapped areas of the Lakshadweep alliance, an archipelago off the west coast. South India.

Wild island of Suheli in Lakshadweep. Photo: Guardian.

In the largest recorded arrest, disclosure from local fishermen in February 2020 helped authorities find 1,716 sea cucumbers worth nearly $ 580,000 hidden in nearby coral reefs. Suheli deserted island.

“Resource depletion may be the main reason these people are looking for new locations. Lakshadweep is still pristine, which may be why merchants moved there, ”said Sajan John, head of the Marine Projects and Policy Management Unit at Wildlife Trust of India.

Realizing the seriousness of the crime of selling sea cucumbers, the local government reacted strongly. In February 2020, the world’s first sea cucumbers conservation area was established in Lakshadweep, anti-theft bases were established across the islands and Lakshadweep Sea cucumber Protection Task Force was established. established with the help of the Central Bureau of Investigation of India.

A batch of 416 dead sea cucumbers was seized on a deserted island off Perumal in Lakshadweep in March 2021. Photo: Lakshadweep Forest Management Board.

“The people of Lakshadweep understand the importance of sea cucumber because their livelihood depends on fishing. When sea cucumbers are affected, other fisheries are also affected, ”said Sivakumar Kuppusamy, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Wildlife.

But as the majority of illegally-caught and trafficked sea cucumbers continue to be smuggled into Sri Lanka, Kuppusamy agrees that while it is important to stop this illegal supply chain, educate the fighters. Illegally catching sea cucumbers correctly appreciates the importance of this animal is also important to protect them.

“We have to convince them of the role of sea cucumber in the ecosystem. Without sea cucumbers, they are jeopardizing the sea, ”he said. “That’s when they begin to realize that their livelihoods and their children’s futures will be affected.”

“Break that illegal supply chain and convince the fishermen – we have to do both. If not, this business will continue to grow ”.

The strange movement of a flying snake Some snakes are able to climb trees and “fly” from branch to branch with deliberate jumps. Scientists are investigating what makes them do that.