A view of the JCPOA Joint Committee meeting on April 6, in Vienna, Austria. Photo: Reuters

According to JCPOA regulations, Iran’s uranium enrichment level is at 3.67% and must not be stockpiled more than 300kg of raw materials. However, Iran has now enriched uranium by up to 20%, even claiming to be able to enrich as much as 90%. Iran’s enrichment of uranium to the point of making nuclear weapons has left powers like “sitting on a fire pan.”

Talks in Vienna, Austria, began last week in an effort to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the JCPOA. In 2018, the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement. Now, more than two months after taking the leadership of the United States, President Joe Biden is making a “reversal” of his predecessor’s policy to “revive” the JCPOA.

International experts see the fact that the negotiators “revived” the JCPOA is a very positive signal, but in reality, the process is not easy with many obstacles. The negotiations will have a very complex scenario and developments, most evident in the form of negotiations when the U.S. and Iran do not directly have dialogue with each other.

The negotiation is carried out in the form of individual dialogue between the parties and communication through intermediaries. All JCPOA participants agreed to form 2 Working Groups. The first group will look at how the U.S. returns to the JCPOA by lifting sanctions on Iran. The second group will study how Iran will return to JCPOA compliance.

Analysts point out that the process of negotiating the JCPOA “revived” obstacles with 3 main issues. First of all is assurances about Iran’s shrinking of its nuclear program in accordance with the JCPOA, while specifically determining what sanctions the U.S. will lift on Iran. While Iran wants to lift most sanctions in exchange for its compliance with the JCPOA, the U.S. is only considering lifting sanctions related to the Iran nuclear issue.

President Biden’s administration insists the U.S. is willing to rescind sanctions on Iran that are believed to be inconsistent with the JCPOA but also stressed that the U.S. expects compliance with the deal on the part of Iran.

However, the Iranian side is unlikely to reverse its steps until U.S. sanctions are lifted. This is considered the second largest “barrier”. Namely, the order in which the U.S. lifted sanctions on Iran first and then Iran complied with the JCPOA again, or Iran complied with the JCPOA first before the U.S. lifted the sanctions. Although the process of “reviving” the JCPOA has shown very positive signs, the level of tension is still very high when the US and Iran will probably not give in to each other.

The third obstacle that is analyzed by experts is the schedule of negotiations. In June, Iran will enter the election of a new President and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will not be re-elected due to the end of his second consecutive term. Many are concerned that the successor to the President of Iran may not take the JCPOA as seriously as Mr. Hassan Rouhani. So if the process of “reviving” the JCPOA is not achieved in his final days in office, it is very likely that the new administration will not negotiate with the US on the deal.

According to experts, Iran’s confidence in the JCPOA has been “eroded.” It would be unacceptable for the U.S. to cancel the deal and now return without “paying the price” for its actions. Especially with 3 obstacles in the process of “reviving” in which analysts point out, to achieve this goal will surely need to make breakthroughs in the short period between now and before the Iranian elections in June. In a scenario where the JCPOA is indeed “collapsing,” experts believe, the parties will proceed with a new international agreement or treaty to replace the JCPOA.

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US President Joe Biden. Photo: AP

CNN said the U.S. fell into confrontation with China and Russia, negotiating a return to the 2015 nuclear deal adding to obstacles when Iran’s nuclear plant came under surprise attack, North Korea returned to test ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, President Biden plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan on September 11 but experts warn the Taliban could have an impact on weakening the government in U.S.-backed Kabul.

Mr. Biden’s handling of these situations will help shape the legacy of his term. The U.S. president has publicly said his goal is to defeat COVID-19, revive the economy, and shape foreign policy around the needs of American workers.

The U.S. Director of National Intelligence’s Office on April 13 released a report that named the four countries as Washington’s main security challenges in the coming years: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

On April 11, Iran declared the Natanz nuclear plant under “terrorist attack” after a power outage at the facility. Israeli media cited an unnamed source as reporting that the country’s Mossad intelligence agency was behind the attack. The New York Times also cited an unnamed source as “having an Israeli role” in the incident. Israel has not responded to the allegation.

The incident occurred at a time when U.S. and Iranian officials had indirect dialogue in Vienna (Austria) to establish a roadmap for “bilateral compliance” for the two sides to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 Group countries (including the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) in 2015. In the event that Tel Aviv is indeed behind the attack, President Biden could face new minor friction with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The attack on the Natanz nuclear plant is believed to have influenced U.S. negotiations back to the 2015 nuclear deal. Photo: AP

As for China, it is stepping up its military activities, in addition to making more impact through the “Belt and Road” initiative. The meeting between senior U.S. and Chinese representatives during a two-day conference in Alaska that closed on March 19 represented a clear message from Washington to Beijing that President Biden is not easily “bullied.” It was the first face-to-face meeting between American and Chinese officials since Mr Biden assumed the presidency. At the event, in front of a slew of world media cameras, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken bluntly said that China’s actions “threaten a rules-based order to maintain global stability.”

In March, U.S. President Biden also said that China has ambitions to “become a world leader, the richest country in the world, and the most powerful country in the world.” “This is not going to happen under my supervision,” the U.S. leader insisted.

Not only China, North Korea is another country in Northeast Asia that makes the U.S. keep an eye on it. At the 8th Workers’ Party of Korea Congress held in January, Pyongyang stressed its commitment to developing “strategic weapons” in preparation for a long-term confrontation with the U.S. South Korea’s intelligence agency said the new missile North Korea tested in March could carry a nuclear warhead.

Pyongyang has rejected a offer of dialogue from U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration and stressed that Washington should first eliminate hostile policy. According to experts, diplomacy and negotiations are the most practical way to solve the problem of the North Korean nuclear program. This does not mean the complete removal of sanctions but can be the application of a sustainable diplomatic process that includes high-level dialogue, step by step.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed legislation facilitating his re-election. This development paves the way for the possibility of Mr. Putin continuing to lead Russia more time and achieve the goal of restoring the position the Kremlin lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Experts say President Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan appears to be a foreign policy influenced by domestic affairs. The U.S. and the Taliban signed the agreement in February 2020. Under the agreement, the U.S. pledged to withdraw all forces from Afghanistan by mid-2021, while the Taliban offered security guarantees and conducted talks with the Kabul authorities.

The U.S. currently has 2,500 troops stationed in Afghanistan. The Taliban will have to abide by certain commitments before the U.S. withdraws. But many experts warn that if the U.S. removes troops from Afghanistan without a peace deal that comes with the Taliban, there is a risk that civil war will occur in the country.

A test with President Biden

For now, it’s not hard to see whether America’s adversies are trying to challenge the country’s leader, from Russia’s increased force on its border with Ukraine, China’s moves in Taiwan or North Korea’s missile tests to get President Biden’s attention.

President Biden. Photo: CNN

Mr Biden’s hopes of resuming the nuclear deal with Iran will be even harder if Tehran’s hardline followers are in charge of negotiations. Besides, if Israel is accused of carrying out an attack on Iran, President Biden will likely face a crisis with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in pending the situation. The ability to address these challenges will shape Mr Biden’s legacy.

China has been intensifying its rise over the past year and is now ready to assert military power in Asia, as well as its influence in many parts of the world. Meanwhile, Western tensions and divisions also have many problems related to Russia.

President Biden’s administration understands its enemies are probing a new White House. Bitter disagreements between U.S. and Chinese officials in Alaska last month sent a clear message from Washington to Beijing that President Biden would not be easily persuaded.

Since then, U.S. and Chinese carrier combat forces have increased their presence in the South China Sea. In addition, China sent 25 fighters to taiwan’s air defense zone as a message asking Washington not to interfere in its internal work.

Taiwan is considered the issue with the highest risk of sparking the US-China conflict. After Washington launched the USS John McCain into the Taiwan Strait last week, China warned the U.S. not to “play with fire.”

Along with its Western allies, President Biden’s administration has also put pressure on Russia over the Ukraine issue due to fears that current tensions in eastern Ukraine could lead to a full-on conflict in the sensitive region.

A senior U.S. defense official told CNN last week that the Pentagon is considering moving two ships to the Black Sea to show support for Ukraine, a move that could escalate tensions.

Tough stance

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who spoke directly to Chinese officials in Alaska, did not hesitate to give tough warnings to Russia and China.

“It would be a serious mistake if anyone tried to change the status quo by force,” Mr Blinken said on NBC on April 11.

In Europe, on April 13, during a NATO meeting to announce the U.S. increased military presence in Germany, Foreign Minister Blinken met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleb, and said that if Russia continues to escalate tensions, as President Biden has made clear, the country will pay the price and suffer the consequences.”

These hardline statements are intended to counter the claim in both Russia and China that america’s weakening and downward decline is inevitable after two decades of war, financial terrorism, internal political discord and limited ability to cope with the pandemic.

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s remarks also need to be taken into account when compared to the foreign policy approach of former President Trump, who has not taken a stance too tough on Russia.

The Current White House’s position with both Russia and China is to cooperate when possible but confrontational relations still prevail, especially in the fierce economic competition with Beijing.

As CNN reported, President Biden’s climate envoy, former Secretary of State John Kerry, will make a brief visit to Beijing to seek common ground between the two countries ahead of the Climate Summit in Scotland in November. In a surprise move, President Biden on April 13 offered a third face-to-face meeting next month with Russian President Putin, just weeks after the U.S. leader endorsed what he called the Russian leader a “murderer.”

The move is said to resemble a “carrot” that Mr Biden gave Mr Putin in order to avoid any escalation of tensions in Ukraine or in connection with the poisoning of opposition figures Alexei Navalny.

Decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan

President Biden’s decision on Afghanistan appears to be a foreign policy given after calculations on domestic policies.

Republicans with hardline views argue that this decision by the American leader is a dangerous step. The power gap after years of civil war in Afghanistan will cause the Taliban to intensify operations and turn the country into a terrorist paradise for al Qaeda to stage attacks on New York and Washington.

“The hasty withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is a disastrous mistake because the process takes place when the enemy has not gone away and is a sign that the U.S. is abandoning its leadership,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Not all Republicans, though, have criticized the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Congressman Ted Cruz, who has always opposed most of Mr. Biden’s policies, is an example. Ted Cruz said he was not opposed to the deadline for withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan that Mr Biden set.

“Bringing our troops back should not be seen as a sign that the U.S. neglects caution in protecting the American people and our allies. We can still defend our interests without the need to maintain a long-term military presence here.”

If Mr. Biden is determined to implement his plan, he can achieve what former Presidents Obama and Trump have tried but failed to do, which is to end American interference in the endless wars that followed 9/11 abroad.