There are 91 daily limit. Although I seem to never get along with the daily limit, it doesn’t affect my mood. What kind of style determines what kind of ending, I play for the medium and long-term stability, and even the semi-equity index fund ETF is destined to be insulated from the daily limit, but it is constantly rising.

Some people say that the water used for food brewing has plummeted. Isn’t it a good thing? A small T on the disk can regain the blood, reducing the cost and being naughty again. If you evaluate it objectively and it falls, where will the market get better? Which time did it not directly crash the Shanghai Composite Index, but also brought the index to rise again.

The temper of securities is to rise and fall. They dare not pull up and are afraid that they will not be able to suppress the madness of the index. They can only let consumption rush to the front. Only the water energy brewed by grain is the only side of consumption.

On Tuesday, you can expect to accelerate the rise

On Monday, the trend was perfect. It bottomed out twice, and many people were washed out, and they were short of 3,500 points. There has never been a peak that retail investors can foresee. When they are all on the run, please bear with me. If you breathe more than anyone in the end, you will win.

This dishwashing technique is too familiar, with 3,500 points as the psychological point, repeated shocks between the communities, without losing chips, boiled the green baby in warm water, and left people off the car. Things that can’t be done sideways at 3,600 points, fall back to 3,500 points, then it’s easy to do.

However, the main funds have never been worried that the return will be less than 3,600 points. Only the panicked retail investors worry that they will not return. Securities fully adjusted, a big positive line, they will chase in again, and their emotions will see 4000 points again.

The people who are short of 3,000 points here are the same group of people who were brainwashed by 4,000 points of speech. They are the eternal gods of wealth in A shares, and of course they are the kind who send warmth.

Some things you missed, forget it Say it again, all high-quality long-term tracks are not your short-term naughty place. Taking profits to fight for profits and chasing high to enter the game are two different things. One detail determines your final outcome. In the event of a big drop, those who chased the high were complaining besides panic, while those who held it happily did T for nothing. What is the mentality? It is not just learning to have it, but the confidence, what is the confidence, it is the thick floating profit, when your costs are all negative, do you still have the idea of ​​panic when you encounter this kind of plummet? I said that my trading system is to start holding at a low position and operate in a floating position until the cost drops to a negative number one day. Then you will be more calm. If you increase your profit, you can decrease your number of shares. You can play for a few years. greasy. For example: medicine, military industry, when you call back, you just ignore it, and you didn’t even notice that the two bottoms of the medical aesthetics were even yang. You may only notice after reading Xiaofan’s article. Why did you happen to be there when the price rose? Final summary There is nothing to say about the market, that’s it, let it be naughty for a while. If you are bearish, please be bearish forever. These are also good things. If you don’t play, you win! Because short positions can outperform 80% of retail investors, just don’t help being lured by the big Yangxian too much.

I’m Xiaofan, thank you everyone for liking and following comments and sharing, light up the little thumb, little rocket, little star below, thank you for meeting… The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious!Personal opinion, do not make investment advice

Lead: Tomorrow, Wednesday, A shares will welcome a “heavy rain”?

Let me talk about the key points first: The central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan today. Because there is a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase expiration today, a net return of 10 billion yuan was realized on the same day, and liquidity was recovered; Tuesday, the first transaction after the holiday. Today, the two markets ushered in adjustments. Among them, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Index fell below the 20-day line, and more than 60% of the stocks closed down. It can be seen that the adjustment is relatively strong.

First, let’s take a look at the other major indexes. Overnight, US stocks were mixed, and the S&P 500 index hit a record high. The Nikkei 225 index opened higher and oscillated, and finally closed up 0.96%, the Korean Composite Index rose slightly by 0.2%, and European stocks showed a general upward trend at the opening.

The market contracted on Tuesday, and the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1,000 billion yuan, with active trading. From the overall perspective of the disk, the opening conditions of the three major stock indexes were different. The Shenzhen Component Index opened slightly higher, and then quickly dropped after a short period of consolidation. After that, it bottomed out and stabilized and began to pick up. The rebound speed is relatively fast but the volume is not large. Strong, Shenzhen Component Index retreated to step on the 30-day line in early trading. In the afternoon, the two cities are focused on consolidation, and the small inflows in late trading can be enlarged. In the end, the three major stock indexes all closed down, with a drop of about 1%.

Say a certain chance

In May, Runhe Software (300339), which started to take everyone’s layout, increased by 178.76%, and Heribo Fashion (603196) increased by 109.52%, and it has doubled since then! This is enough to prove the strength of the author.

Ten times stocks are big bull stocks that have risen ten times the price you originally bought, turning ten thousand into one hundred thousand, one million into ten million, and ten million into one hundred million. In other words, if you can find a ten-fold stock in every ten-year cycle, you only need 10,000 principal and three cycles to become a billionaire! It should be pointed out that these three cycles can be interleaved with each other, so it may not take thirty years to go from ten thousand to one hundred million!Based on the logic of fundamentals and technology, we have carefully screened the candidate stock pool of ten times stocks for ten years and carried out long-term tracking. Those who are interested can pay attention to the following picture

On the whole, the index ushered in a strong adjustment, and individual stocks fluctuated accordingly. The number of stocks in the two cities and the concept were green and red. The number of daily limit stocks still reached 67, and the number of down limit stocks was also quite large, with the number exceeding 20; , Quantum Technology, and the general aviation sector are relatively strong, bringing certain support to the market. The Hongmeng concept, non-ferrous smelting and processing, steel, paper, and pork sectors have undergone adjustments.

At present, today and the last trading day before the holiday, the market has seen a downward trend, mainly due to the recent sideways consolidation of major indexes and the differentiation of weighted stocks. Among them, the SSE 50 index once fell by more than 1.5. %. However, it is not obvious from the fact that the lower limit and the larger decline of the two cities are not obvious. Most individual stocks have shrunk and the number of daily limit stocks is still large. It shows that the current long-short-term consolidation market has not changed the overall stability of the market. situation.

In the short term, in the absence of effective resonance in terms of capital and the willingness of the market to go long, the market will still be organized accordingly. In addition, the Shanghai stock index has stepped back to near the 30-day line. Coupled with the support of the previous bottom structure below, the downside space is limited.

Tomorrow, Wednesday A shares will welcome a “strong rainfall”?

To sum up: the market generally adjusted on Tuesday. The Shanghai stock index opened lower and lowered and fell below the 20-day line during the intraday session, and finally closed the shrinking mid-yin line. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also experienced strong adjustments. On the whole, the market has accumulated some momentum and external factors during the holiday, so today’s early trading speed is faster, and the amount of energy is also relatively large.

Finally, from a technical point of view, there was a slight rebound in late trading, and the volume was slightly enlarged. The ChiNext index closed above the 5-day line, and the market’s long momentum showed signs of being stimulated little by little. Therefore, on Wednesday or a process of oscillating and rebounding after digesting short-term kinetic energy, the intensity of “heavy rainfall” is limited.

With the continuous development of IPFS distributed storage technology, more and more users will focus on the storage market, and everyone is willing to choose lower cost, safer, and more efficient decentralized storage services. Therefore, IPFS will definitely dominate the storage market in the future, and Filecoin will also become the hot digital gold in the future. (Click WK010708)

IPFS still exists in a small circle now, just like when the Internet was just starting, many people don’t understand, or even know its future.

In less than a week, FIL will usher in a new and best stage of mining input and output gold.

In fact, miners who invest in FIL should know the value of FIL in their hearts. The current low price of the currency is affected by the negative policy and the trend of the market, but we must see the country cracking down on Bitcoin mining and virtual currency transactions, while also beginning to guide and deploy valuable blockchain projects and big data computing hubs. . In terms of long-term value, the future growth of FIL prices is inevitable.

First, from the perspective of ecological construction, FIL is not just a digital currency, nor is it a plaything in the financial investment field, but has a specific landing scene, which is also advocated by the Protocol Lab. According to the disclosures of all parties and their application directions, in the future, all those who want to store data or develop scenarios on the IPFS agreement will need to purchase FIL, which will inevitably promote the continued growth of FIL prices.

Second, from the perspective of price trends, the current 24-hour circulation of FIL in the secondary market is about 40 million, about 1.2 billion US dollars, which is not in the top five range, and is undoubtedly seriously underestimated. According to the forecast of relevant agencies and the continuous release of FIL, its circulation is expected to reach more than 100 million in one year. +WK010708

The third point is that FIL’s model is undoubtedly the most complicated among all current blockchain projects from the perspective of economic models. The innovation of this model is that the zero-knowledge proof mechanism realizes the application of storage proof, so that data storage has a blockchain architecture, innovation catalyzes consensus, and consensus generates value. It can be seen that regardless of the rise or fall of the secondary market, the current Filcoin network storage speed is growing steadily and healthily every day, and the application landing is also progressing in an orderly manner.

After FIL, the value is naturally unlimited, but will FIL rise to a high degree in the future? Without considering the market value of the currency, from the analysis of circulation and price, the theoretical value of FIL can reach 38182.92/3.94=9691U, which is now 132. Times. Of course, this is an ideal situation, but FIL will not increase by 132 times after 3 years, and it is very possible to increase by 10 times.

Looking back over the past 30 years, the Internet has been surging, and the development of blockchain in the past 10 years is shocking. Filecoin, as a fast-rising data storage infrastructure, often makes the next round of leapfrogging a new myth. Moreover, the consensus of Filecoin will inevitably be strengthened with debate after dispute.

Absenteeism provides storage space and reuses computing data to prove that its storage purpose is to reach a consensus. A consensus is reached through Time and Space Verification (PoSt). It does not have to waste computing resources and energy like BTC, and it can also encourage miners to invest more storage space. (Hard disk) resources, rather than computing and energy resources, play a role in the network. This is a very environmentally friendly and efficient method.

Therefore, compared to BTC, FIL mining does not require a large amount of energy consumption, and can contribute resources under the premise of environmental protection, eliminate pain points in traditional industries, and promote social progress. Therefore, FIL is regarded as the blockchain 3.0.

At present, the IPFS network has been successfully operated for many years. As a public, open, and open source network, its operation is very successful. However, in commercial operation, due to the lack of incentive layer and the difficulty of coordinating the service guarantee system of decentralized nodes, there still exist Many challenges, these challenges are exactly what the Filecoin project wants to solve.

As one of the important infrastructures of Web3.0, Filecoin has always been the most important and most watched project in the market.

The implementation of this plan has brought huge attention and market influence to the entire distributed storage field. A large number of storage miners have entered, and a large number of investors have poured into the distributed storage field.

On June 7, the inauguration ceremony of the first domestic big data application and distributed storage industry fund was held in Fuzhou. Shenzhen Soft Cloud Storage Technology Co., Ltd. and Multi-Industry Holding Group jointly initiated the establishment of a 1 billion yuan “Big Data Application and Distributed Storage Industry Fund”, the first phase of the 300 million yuan fund.

As the first domestic industry guiding fund for big data applications and distributed storage, the first phase will reach 300 million yuan. It will be guided by national industrial development policies and will focus on innovative companies in the fields of distributed storage and national computing power networks. It provides capital empowerment, enhances market competitiveness, and aims to effectively improve the financing environment of related industries, accelerate industry aggregation and development, and promote the development of the domestic distributed storage information technology industry to a new level. Jointly invest in the creation of innovative distributed storage formats, contribute to the construction of China’s new infrastructure, and the national “Eastern Data and Western Calculation” project!

IPFS/FIL has been written into the blockchain white paper of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, and has become the preferred data solution for Internet giants. Then this success will translate into the value of FIL, which is much higher than what we see today. Due to the penetration capability that IPFS/FIL pursues, I think this is a cryptocurrency with unlimited potential in the future.

With the upgrade of the IPFS network, Gas will be infinitely close to 0, and the pledge ratio will be greatly reduced. I think now is the best input-output stage for miners.

Las Vegas is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the United States. A representative of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) said that Las Vegas was built on the tourism and entertainment industry, so the city is delighted to welcome visitors back. “The excitement is evident in all the destinations and we see that travel demand has really been pent up. We wait for this moment to announce that the experiences are ‘Only Vegas’. Vegas) is welcoming you,” said Kate Wik, marketing director of LVCVA. After being allowed to restore 100% of operating capacity, Las Vegas will quickly restore entertainment programs, in parallel with implementing the principles of disease prevention. As planned, from the end of June to August, entertainment activities in Las Vegas are filled with a series of shows by big names such as Bill Burr, Tom Segura, Chelsea Handler, Bill Maher, Jim Jefferies, Dave Chapelle, Bruno Mars, Miley Cyrus, Garth Brooks, Usher, Criss Angel and many more.

Du Lan, Senior Vice President of iFLYTEK, HKUST

The four-day Boao Forum for Asia 2021 Annual Conference will be held in Boao, Hainan from April 18th to 21st. During the meeting, Du Lan, senior vice president of iFLYTEK, said that when he talked about the development trend of artificial intelligence in the next ten years, Intelligence will provide new opportunities for industrial development in four aspects, and will also generate more new landing application scenarios.

First, we are in the era of interconnection of all things, human-computer interaction will become more and more convenient, and the future will also enter the era of interconnection of all things. “As we all see now, for example, there are many people on the scene using intelligent equipment to convert speech.” Dulan believes that with the advancement of this technology, it is not only in speech recognition, but more The application scenarios, such as returning to home, in the car, etc., can be interconnected and interacted with all things. Among these, there are very good industrial development patterns and prospects, which will also bring changes to everyone’s lives.

Second, with the direction of human cognitive intelligence and the continuous deepening of research and development, we can continue to expand applications in the direction of machine learning. Therefore, various new industry applications will gradually deepen, such as education and medical care. , Smart City and other fields. The biggest feature of artificial intelligence is that it can quickly learn the knowledge field of human experts, so that it can quickly exceed 90% of ordinary people. Therefore, it can empower ordinary people with the best human experts. From this point, artificial intelligence There will be new applications in many industries.

The third is the change of emotional appeal, that is, the computing power of emotion will increase, and the communication of modern people will be satisfied through the recognition of human emotion and the synthesis of emotion, which will also produce some new industry fields and applications.

The fourth and most important point is that the development of brain-computer interfaces is getting faster and faster. Our research on brain science and the impact of brain-computer interface hybrid collaboration technology on technology and life will also bring the heart of related industries. development of.

Based on the above viewpoints, Dulan believes that the future will be a golden decade for the development of artificial intelligence.

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The era of the stock of the sharing economy is coming, and the pioneers are all going public.

From Youke Workshop, Airbnb to Monster Charging, they have all landed in the U.S. stock market one after another. In March of this year, it was reported that Harbin Travel plans to go to the United States for IPO, and the shared office Wework plans to go public on SPAC.

But judging from the listing experience of the predecessors, none of the companies seems to be going well. The unicorn Airbnb’s IPO has been delayed due to factors such as the epidemic and the U.S. election, and the company’s valuation has fallen from US$26 billion to US$18 billion; the “shared charging treasure’s first share” monster charging has fallen below its issue price in just two weeks after its listing .

On the one hand, the company’s profit model and the fragile capital chain under the concept of the sharing economy are all questioning how far the sharing economy can go. On the other hand, after a few years of silence for shared bicycles, shared motorcycles became the outlet last year.The new travel “Rainbow War” is on the verge, and colorful shared motorcycles “suddenly like a spring breeze”, blooming again and again.

In this context, recently, Songguo Travel, a shared motorcycle field, reported that it will go public in the United States this year, and the fund-raising scale is expected to be 300 million US dollars. As the sixth company in the sharing economy field that plans to go public, how will this dark horse compete with giants on a crowded track? There is a good chance that Songguo will win the journey. Is it really feasible?

“Emerging markets” bear a “pine cone”

On festivals and holidays, there are waves of travellers in waves. They carry schoolbags and board the train to return to their hometown, returning from the first- and second-tier cities to their parents and relatives in fifth- and sixth-tier cities.

But at the moment of getting off the bus, limited by the cramped public transportation of the local county, the number of flights is small, the waiting time is long, the rental of black cars is more but expensive, and the Didi, which is used in big cities, has not settled. These problems have been troubled year after year. Visiting relatives driving car after car.

At this time, the rows of shared motorcycles parked on the side of the road, the eye-catching yellow color can hardly not attract people’s attention.In front of each car, there was a sticker “No deposit, two yuan for 20 minutes, and WeChat Alipay can scan it.” This wording deeply attracted these people who are eager to go home to reunite.

Unlike first- and second-tier cities, limited by the transportation system of fifth- and sixth-tier cities, these demands exist in large numbers in 1,300 counties in China. And where there is demand, there is a market, where there is a market, there is a business, and some people are already eyeing this business.

Four years ago, 36-year-old Zhai Guanglong stepped into the entrepreneurial army of the sharing economy and founded Songguo Travel. It is different from the shared bicycles that can be seen everywhere in cities now, because it focuses on “the best way to travel in the county.” For many people, if it were not for the news of the upcoming listing in the United States, Songguo Travel might not be familiar to the public.

Judging from the current layout, this company, which has only been established for only three years, has not appeared in first- and second-tier cities. In third- and fourth-tier cities, it also deliberately avoids giants such as Meituan, Haro and Qingju, but is deeply rooted in Such sinking markets as counties and county-level cities in fifth- and sixth-tier cities.

According to the data provided by Songuo Travel, as of the end of December 2020, Songuo motorcycles have landed in 24 provinces, nearly 1,000 counties and county-level cities in China, with nearly 50 million users and more than 3 million orders per day. According to the statistics of average daily service users, Songguo Travel is in an absolute leading position in the county market.

In 2020, the entire shared motorcycle industry is making a comeback. Whether it is Qingju, Hello, or Meituan, the market will be focused on the second, third, and fourth-tier cities. In addition to the anxious battles between giants, many cities have once again China’s policy was turned out, beating the leading companies in the shared motorcycle industry.

From this perspective, today when the overall situation of each track has been set, the Pinecone Bicycle, which is not attached to any giant, has become a “bright spot” that has emerged in China’s Internet industry in recent years.

Can a shared motorcycle track be established?

The shared bicycles, which are committed to solving the “last mile” problem, have been relying on low-cost subsidies to cultivate and compete for the market since their birth. Race track players have used “burning money” to first expand the market and accumulate huge stability. user. Nowadays, bicycle sharing no longer exists as an independent business model. It has completely become an integral part of the big Internet giants’ corporate ecosystem, and a tool that exerts other ecological synergies besides profitability.

With the gradual peaking of the market space, based on the demand for corporate profit growth, the Big Three are considering maximizing the commercial value of existing users, even if there are waves of users saying that they will never ride shared bicycles again. , Shared bicycles have taken the most direct path-price increases.

From the investment vent to the giants’ wrestling field, shared bicycles finally went to the same place.However, when the sharing economy craze completely receded, they gave birth to a “freak”-shared bicycles. Although the business model is similar to shared bicycles, the former has been proven to be profitable without price increases.

In April last year, Meituan piloted motorcycles in small cities in Hunan, Guangdong, and Fujian. Discovering that the economic model is impressive, Meituan immediately launched the “Hundred Days War” blitz, aiming to concentrate 2 million motorcycles in 100 days. This data exceeds the total number of Didi motorcycles in the previous three years.

“Pearl Harbor is gone, what did we do?”Zhang Zhidong, general manager of Didi’s two-wheeler division and CEO of Qingju Bicycles, likened Meituan’s surprise attack on motorcycles to a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, and is organizing a full counterattack.

Earlier, the person in charge of the Harbin Moped Division also stated that Harbin Moped has returned to profit in 2019. In the absence of new investment vehicles, the Moped is the most profitable department of the entire company, and subsequent development profits may be higher. There is even speculation in the industry that Haro can use the shared electric vehicle business to subsidize the core bicycle business.

Judging from the actions of the giants, shared motorcycles may be a good track.

In general, the manufacturing cost of a shared bicycle is about 1,000 yuan, while the shared motorcycle is as high as 2,000-2,500 yuan; in terms of operation and maintenance costs, due to the need to charge and replace the battery, the motorcycle is more than three times that of a bicycle.

If the second, third, and fourth-tier markets that the giants compete for prove to be profitable, the fifth and sixth-tier cities can also be profitable.

After all, the core economic circle of the fifth- and sixth-tier cities is about 5-10 kilometers on average. The starting price of Songguo travel is 2 yuan (20 minutes) + the duration fee is 1 yuan (10 minutes). Taking into account the usage scenarios of the sinking market, shared electricity The price of bicycles is indeed a better profit model than shared bicycles.

Songguo Travel Zhai Guanglong once said that a shared motorcycle with a starting price of two yuan can basically meet the travel needs of county residents. In addition, Songguo Travel has achieved large-scale profitability for two consecutive years, and the future conversion rate will reach at least 30%.

Looking at it this way, Songguo Travel has hit the blind spots of other players in a special way of “surrounding the countryside from the countryside”, and has grown from a big city track full of giants to an “invisible little giant” in the county.

At the same time, this also brings a problem. At the moment when the war is burning from shared bicycles to shared motorcycles, it is only a matter of time before the giants covet a more sinking market. What does Songguo Travel use to fight the giants?

Can Songguo Travel become the “pinduoduo” of shared travel?

The answer to whether Songguo travels against the giants is actually the same as how high the moat of Songguo travels.

First of all, from the internal perspective of the enterprise, the competition of the enterprise is also the competition of talents. It is understood that Songguo Travel was founded by Zhai Guanglong in August 2017. Before founding, this top student who graduated from the University of Science and Technology of China had been on the road to entrepreneurship for a long time.

After graduation, he worked at Procter & Gamble for 5 years. Later, he entered Meituan as the founder of the company. He also served as the CEO of Ant Short Rentals and led the spin-off and the first round of financing with Ganji. Hands.

What’s interesting is that from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the trend of shared bicycles and shared motorcycles suddenly appeared. Zhai Guanglong’s team had tested the “No. 7 motorcycle” business in first- and second-tier cities. Unfortunately, shared motorcycles under the halo of shared bicycles have greater resistance in policies, business models, management, and safety hazards. In the end, the “No. 7 motorcycle” only existed for about half a year and ended in a hasty.

Industry insiders commented that he is a person obsessed with the “sharing economy”.Indeed, Zhai Guanglong has been immersed in the sharing industry for many years, every time he stepped on the wind but failed to make it. This time he brought his unique insights into the sharing economy and started his second business. Whether he will repeat the same mistakes or wash his previous shame is still unknown. .

But from the perspective of strategic decision-making, both shared bicycles and shared motorcycles have the same business model, and they are all assets-heavy. Therefore, both shared motorcycles and shared bicycles adopt the foundry model. The advantage of this is that it can quickly occupy the market through the advantages of scale.

As a shared motorcycle service provider, Songguo Travel seems to have to “do the opposite” again. In an interview, Zhai Guanglong made it clear that “build a self-energy factory”.

In fact, in terms of the future competitiveness of the race track, “self-built factories” are conducive to grasping the pricing power of the consumer side, which is established in principle. From this perspective, Pine Cone Travel can indeed tear a gap between the giants.

The problem is that the current financing disclosed by Songguo Travel is only the angel round investment from Xianfeng Evergreen in 2018, and the specific amount has not been disclosed.

From the perspective of the external environment, compared with shared bicycles, shared bicycle projects have been less popular when seeking financing. Public information shows that most of the shared motorcycle companies established from 2016 to 2018 announced that they received financing from the angel round or the A round. There are almost no mainstream investment institutions and the financing amount is small.

Caijing Wuji believes that although shared motorcycles can be profitable, there are reasons why the capital market is not optimistic.

On the one hand, from the demand side,From the first and second lines to the third and fourth lines and then to the county market, with the weakness of public transportation, the demand for shared motorcycles has gradually increased, and the value of shared motorcycles has begun to gradually manifest, but with the upgrading of public transportation, as well as electric vehicles With the increase in sales volume and the upgrade and iteration of transportation tools, there is a ceiling in demand.

On the other hand, from the perspective of the market,Songguo Travel Zhai Guanglong once said that there is currently no plan to enter the first-tier cities. However, as the development of these giants in the first, second and third tier cities is hindered, they will move to a more sinking market. Compared with the big brothers of Haro, Qingju and Meituan, Songguo is difficult to expand its coverage and market share, and the capital behind it is not at the same level of individual volume.

This also brings thinking about the future of shared motorcycle companies. When the demand becomes smaller and the market shrinks, the company’s price increase for profit purposes will also directly touch the sinking market’s price-sensitive nerves.

It is foreseeable that giant players with rich wealth will surely pass by. Whether the “small and beautiful” pine cones can withstand the pressure may have to be a question mark. Who can run out of the dark horse in the shared motorcycle industry needs to be seen.

The era of the stock of the sharing economy is coming, and the pioneers are all going public.

From Youke Workshop, Airbnb to Monster Charging, they have all landed in the U.S. stock market one after another. In March of this year, it was reported that Harbin Travel plans to go to the United States for IPO, and the shared office Wework plans to go public on SPAC.

However, judging from the listing experience of the predecessors, none of the companies seem to be going smoothly. The unicorn Airbnb’s IPO has been delayed due to factors such as the epidemic and the U.S. election, and the company’s valuation has fallen from US$26 billion to US$18 billion; the “shared charging treasure’s first share” monster charging has fallen below its issue price in just two weeks after its listing .

On the one hand, the company’s profit model and the fragile capital chain under the concept of the sharing economy are all questioning how far the sharing economy can go. On the other hand, after a few years of silence for shared bicycles, shared motorcycles became the outlet last year.The new travel “Rainbow War” is on the verge, and colorful shared motorcycles “suddenly like a spring breeze”, blooming again and again.

In this context, recently, Songguo Travel, a shared motorcycle field, reported that it will go public in the United States this year, and the fund-raising scale is expected to be 300 million US dollars. As the sixth company in the sharing economy field that plans to go public, how will this dark horse compete with giants on a crowded track? There is a good chance that Songguo will win the journey. Is it really feasible?

“Emerging markets” bear a “pine cone”

On festivals and holidays, there are waves of travellers in waves. They carry schoolbags and board the train to return to their hometown, returning from the first- and second-tier cities to their parents and relatives in fifth- and sixth-tier cities.

But at the moment of getting off the bus, limited by the cramped public transportation of the local county, the number of flights is small, the waiting time is long, the rental of black cars is more but expensive, and the Didi, which is used in big cities, has not settled. These problems have been troubled year after year. Visiting relatives driving car after car.

At this time, the rows of shared motorcycles parked on the side of the road, the eye-catching yellow color can hardly not attract people’s attention.In front of each car, there was a sticker “No deposit, two yuan for 20 minutes, and WeChat Alipay can scan it.” This wording deeply attracted these people who are eager to go home to reunite.

Unlike first- and second-tier cities, limited by the transportation system of fifth- and sixth-tier cities, these demands exist in large numbers in 1,300 counties in China. And where there is demand, there is a market, where there is a market, there is a business, and some people are already eyeing this business.

Four years ago, 36-year-old Zhai Guanglong stepped into the entrepreneurial army of the sharing economy and founded Songguo Travel. It is different from the shared bicycles that can be seen everywhere in cities now, because it focuses on “the best way to travel in the county.” For many people, if it were not for the news of the upcoming listing in the United States, Songguo Travel might not be familiar to the public.

Judging from the current layout, this company, which has only been established for only three years, has not appeared in first- and second-tier cities. In third- and fourth-tier cities, it also deliberately avoids giants such as Meituan, Haro and Qingju, but is deeply rooted in Such sinking markets as counties and county-level cities in fifth- and sixth-tier cities.

According to the data provided by Songuo Travel, as of the end of December 2020, Songuo motorcycles have landed in 24 provinces, nearly 1,000 counties and county-level cities in China, with nearly 50 million users and more than 3 million orders per day. According to the statistics of average daily service users, Songguo Travel is in an absolute leading position in the county market.

In 2020, the entire shared motorcycle industry is making a comeback. Whether it is Qingju, Hello, or Meituan, the market will be focused on the second, third, and fourth-tier cities. In addition to the anxious battles between giants, many cities have once again China’s policy was turned out, beating the leading companies in the shared motorcycle industry.

From this perspective, today when the overall situation of each track has been set, the Pinecone Bicycle, which is not attached to any giant, has become a “bright spot” that has emerged in China’s Internet industry in recent years.

Can a shared motorcycle track be established?

The shared bicycles, which are committed to solving the “last mile” problem, have been relying on low-cost subsidies to cultivate and compete for the market since their birth. Race track players have used “burning money” to first expand the market and accumulate huge stability. user. Nowadays, bicycle sharing no longer exists as an independent business model. It has completely become an integral part of the big Internet giants’ corporate ecosystem, and a tool that exerts other ecological synergies besides profitability.

With the gradual peaking of the market space, based on the demand for corporate profit growth, the Big Three are considering maximizing the commercial value of existing users, even if there are waves of users saying that they will never ride shared bicycles again. , Shared bicycles have taken the most direct path-price increases.

From the investment vent to the giants’ wrestling field, shared bicycles finally went to the same place.However, when the sharing economy craze completely receded, they gave birth to a “freak”-shared bicycles. Although the business model is similar to shared bicycles, the former has been proven to be profitable without price increases.

In April last year, Meituan piloted motorcycles in small cities in Hunan, Guangdong, and Fujian. Discovering that the economic model is impressive, Meituan immediately launched the “Hundred Days War” blitz, aiming to concentrate 2 million motorcycles in 100 days. This data exceeds the total number of Didi motorcycles in the previous three years.

“Pearl Harbor is gone, what did we do?”Zhang Zhidong, general manager of Didi’s two-wheeler division and CEO of Qingju Bicycles, likened Meituan’s surprise attack on motorcycles to a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, and is organizing a full counterattack.

Earlier, the person in charge of the Harbin Moped Division also stated that Harbin Moped has returned to profit in 2019. In the absence of new investment vehicles, the Moped is the most profitable department of the entire company, and subsequent development profits may be higher. There is even speculation in the industry that Haro can use the shared electric vehicle business to subsidize the core bicycle business.

Judging from the actions of the giants, shared motorcycles may be a good track.

In general, the manufacturing cost of a shared bicycle is about 1,000 yuan, while the shared motorcycle is as high as 2,000-2,500 yuan; in terms of operation and maintenance costs, due to the need to charge and replace the battery, the motorcycle is more than three times that of a bicycle.

If the second, third, and fourth-tier markets that the giants compete for prove to be profitable, the fifth and sixth-tier cities can also be profitable.

After all, the core economic circle of the fifth- and sixth-tier cities is about 5-10 kilometers on average. The starting price of Songguo travel is 2 yuan (20 minutes) + the duration fee is 1 yuan (10 minutes). Taking into account the usage scenarios of the sinking market, shared electricity The price of bicycles is indeed a better profit model than shared bicycles.

Songguo Travel Zhai Guanglong once said that a shared motorcycle with a starting price of two yuan can basically meet the travel needs of county residents. In addition, Songguo Travel has achieved large-scale profitability for two consecutive years, and the future conversion rate will reach at least 30%.

Looking at it this way, Songguo Travel has hit the blind spots of other players in a special way of “surrounding the countryside from the countryside”, and has grown from a big city track full of giants to an “invisible little giant” in the county.

At the same time, this also brings a problem. At the moment when the war is burning from shared bicycles to shared motorcycles, it is only a matter of time before the giants covet a more sinking market. What does Songguo Travel use to fight the giants?

Can Songguo Travel become the “pinduoduo” of shared travel?

The answer to whether Songguo travels against the giants is actually the same as how high the moat of Songguo travels.

First of all, from the internal perspective of the enterprise, the competition of the enterprise is also the competition of talents. It is understood that Songguo Travel was founded by Zhai Guanglong in August 2017. Before founding, this top student who graduated from the University of Science and Technology of China had been on the road to entrepreneurship for a long time.

After graduation, he worked at Procter & Gamble for 5 years. Later, he entered Meituan as the founder of the company. He also served as the CEO of Ant Short Rentals and led the spin-off and the first round of financing with Ganji. Hands.

What’s interesting is that from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the trend of shared bicycles and shared motorcycles suddenly appeared. Zhai Guanglong’s team had tested the “No. 7 motorcycle” business in first- and second-tier cities. Unfortunately, shared motorcycles under the halo of shared bicycles have greater resistance in policies, business models, management, and safety hazards. In the end, the “No. 7 motorcycle” only existed for about half a year and ended in a hasty.

Industry insiders commented that he is a person obsessed with the “sharing economy”.Indeed, Zhai Guanglong has been immersed in the sharing industry for many years, every time he stepped on the wind but failed to make it. This time he brought his unique insights into the sharing economy and started his second business. Whether he will repeat the same mistakes or wash his previous shame is still unknown. .

But from the perspective of strategic decision-making, both shared bicycles and shared motorcycles have the same business model, and they are all assets-heavy. Therefore, both shared motorcycles and shared bicycles adopt the foundry model. The advantage of this is that it can quickly occupy the market through the advantages of scale.

As a shared motorcycle service provider, Songguo Travel seems to have to “do the opposite” again. In an interview, Zhai Guanglong made it clear that “build a self-energy factory”.

In fact, in terms of the future competitiveness of the race track, “self-built factories” are conducive to grasping the pricing power of the consumer side, which is established in principle. From this perspective, Pine Cone Travel can indeed tear a gap between the giants.

The problem is that the current financing disclosed by Songguo Travel is only the angel round investment from Xianfeng Evergreen in 2018, and the specific amount has not been disclosed.

From the perspective of the external environment, compared with shared bicycles, shared bicycle projects have been less popular when seeking financing. Public information shows that most of the shared motorcycle companies established from 2016 to 2018 announced that they received financing from the angel round or the A round. There are almost no mainstream investment institutions and the financing amount is small.

Caijing Wuji believes that although shared motorcycles can be profitable, there are reasons why the capital market is not optimistic.

On the one hand, from the demand side,From the first and second lines to the third and fourth lines and then to the county market, with the weakness of public transportation, the demand for shared motorcycles has gradually increased, and the value of shared motorcycles has begun to gradually manifest, but with the upgrading of public transportation, as well as electric vehicles With the increase in sales volume and the upgrade and iteration of transportation tools, there is a ceiling in demand.

On the other hand, from the perspective of the market,Songguo Travel Zhai Guanglong once said that there is currently no plan to enter the first-tier cities. However, as the development of these giants in the first, second and third tier cities is hindered, they will move to a more sinking market. Compared with the big brothers of Haro, Qingju and Meituan, Songguo is difficult to expand its coverage and market share, and the capital behind it is not at the same level of individual volume.

This also brings thinking about the future of shared motorcycle companies. When the demand becomes smaller and the market shrinks, the company’s price increase for profit purposes will also directly touch the sinking market’s price-sensitive nerves.

It is foreseeable that giant players with rich wealth will surely pass by. Whether the “small and beautiful” pine cones can withstand the pressure may have to be a question mark. Who can run out of the dark horse in the shared motorcycle industry needs to be seen.