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Increasing demand worldwide Oil price close to $ 100?

Status: 23.06.2021 3:10 p.m.

Oil is more expensive than it has been in two years. Experts warn of a supply crisis: The prices for crude oil and thus also gasoline, kerosene and heating oil could soon rise much higher.

From Angela Göpfert, tagesschau.de

Oil prices hit new multi-year highs this week. For the first time in two years, a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent cost more than $ 75 again. For a barrel of the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) variety, more than 73 dollars were paid on the market – the highest amount since October 2018. Rising oil prices – something that businesses and consumers may need to get used to. According to some experts, the new multi-year highs in oil prices, which many consumers are already feeling painfully at gas stations or when buying heating oil, are just the beginning of a longer upward trend in the oil market.

Analysts predict rising oil prices

The experts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs expect the Brent price to rise to $ 80 this summer. But that is not the end of the story. An oil price of $ 100 is a “real possibility”. Alex Sanna, top oil trader at Glencore, the world’s largest commodity trading group, also said, according to the Financial Times, that an oil price of $ 100 is becoming increasingly likely.

The experts at JPMorgan even see a new oil super cycle looming and recently renewed their forecast of an oil price of $ 190 in 2025.

Demand congestion as a price driver

Francisco Blanch, raw materials expert at Bank of America, may not look quite that far into the future. For this he has the most precise 100-dollar forecast ready: the oil price could crack the round mark as early as 2022. The market hardly changes on the supply side – and this in turn is offset by an immense backlog of demand. It is easy to explain where this backlog of demand comes from: Just as many private households restricted their consumption during the pandemic, so too many companies put the necessary investments aside. Now that the global vaccination campaign is gaining momentum, at least in the major industrialized countries, consumers, companies and economies have a lot to catch up on.

Delta variant is a risk factor

The more relaxed Corona situation and the awakening global economy are leading to higher demand for crude oil, gasoline, diesel – and kerosene. Oil expert Blanch sees the rising travel industry as a major price driver.

The delta variant of the virus from India, which could lead to a further tightening of the corona measures, is currently also posing a risk to the economy.

Signal of a shortage of supply

In search of signs of whether demand is actually exceeding supply at the moment, it is worth taking a look at the market for so-called oil futures. Current oil futures contracts are quoted there higher than contracts with delivery at a later point in time. Such a constellation, referred to by experts as “backwardation”, is rather unusual and a clear indication of fear of scarcity – “and thus for further rising prices”, as market expert Robert Rethfeld from Wellenreiter-Invest emphasizes.

A price corrective called fracking

The rising prices should actually make re-entry into the oil market attractive for the US shale industry. In the past, the US frackers acted as flexible price correctors on the oil market: If prices rose, more shale oil was drilled in the short term, supply increased, prices fell again.

As a reminder, the last time oil traded above $ 100 was in 2014, when a rapidly growing supply from the US fracking industry brought an abrupt end to the last oil super cycle.

Sustainability trend slows US oil industry

But this mechanism doesn’t seem to work that well anymore. This is due on the one hand to the new US President Joe Biden, who imposed a stop on oil and gas drilling on state-owned land in January, and on the other hand to the global trend towards sustainable investment.

“The number of active US oil wells is increasing only slowly,” emphasizes wave rider expert Rethfeld. “The investors do not want to see an expansion of the production capacities at the moment, but instead demand investments in renewable energies.”

Iran as a risk factor

The production countries of the OPEC + oil cartel, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia, could benefit from the West’s climate policy. It remains to be seen how willing they are to expand production to fill the void left by the US oil industry.

Especially since there are supply risks on the part of OPEC: “After the election of an ultra-conservative cleric as the new president, Iran will have a hard time overturning US sanctions and increasing oil exports,” said Eugen Weinberg, raw materials expert at Commerzbank .

Inflation Risks Before Revaluation?

Should the oil price actually rise further towards 100 dollars, this would inevitably lead to a reassessment of the inflation risks in the financial markets, since the oil price is one of the main drivers of consumer prices.

Just yesterday, Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), told the House of Representatives budget committee again that the Fed was considering the current high inflation rates a temporary phenomenon considered. However, market expert Rethfeld emphasizes: “Any oil price above $ 100 would suggest to the public that Powell is wrong.”

Increasing influence How China is entering Europe’s ports

Status: 10.06.2021 12:33 p.m.

Piraeus, Rotterdam, Antwerp and soon possibly also Hamburg – China has its own terminals in 14 European ports or holds shares in port operators. Critics warn of the consequences of the urge to expand. From Lothar Gries, tagesschau.de The listed Hamburg port operator HHLA is currently negotiating with the Chinese state shipping company Cosco about a possible participation in one of its container terminals – with the telling name of Tollerort. HHLA recently announced that a legally binding agreement has not yet been reached. However, the publication of such a release indicates that the talks are on the home stretch. Trade with China is by far the most important business for the third largest European seaport. Ships of the Chinese shipping company Cosco have been calling at Hamburg for almost 40 years. Two years ago, China’s Vice President Wang Qishan also visited the Tollerort terminal. With its four berths on a quay wall a good kilometer long, 14 container cranes and a five-track rail connection, Tollerort is one of a total of four container terminals in the Port of Hamburg and the second largest at HHLA.

Important loophole

According to experts, by entering Hamburg, China would close the largest gap in its maritime Silk Road. Even more: through a partnership with HHLA, Cosco could also get privileged access to the Italian Adriatic port of Trieste. The Hamburg port operator had taken over the majority in a new terminal there last year – with the express approval of the government in Rome, which wanted to block the way for the Chinese who were also interested. Because a majority stake by Cosco in the largest container terminal in Trieste would have been tantamount to a sell-out from the perspective of the Italians. Now the Chinese could still gain access to Trieste via Hamburg. That would be a decisive move in Beijing’s expansion strategy, since Trieste is the northernmost port in the Mediterranean and therefore particularly important for Central and Eastern Europe. HHLA is also involved in terminals in the Ukraine and Estonia.

“Loss of Sovereignty”

Cosco and its sister company China Merchant already have their own terminals in a total of 14 European ports – or at least shares in the port operators. All the major seaports on the continent are included, from Rotterdam and Antwerp to Le Havre, Bilbao, Genoa, Valencia and Marseille. According to calculations by US experts, more than two thirds of the 50 largest container terminals in the world are already controlled by the Chinese or at least supported by holdings. “Europe has thus lost some of its sovereignty,” complained the former French Prime Minister and China expert, Jean-Pierre Raffarin. The sell-off began in 2016 when Greece, which was practically bankrupt at the time, was forced by the troika made up of the monetary fund, the EU and the ECB to privatize the port of Piraeus. The Chinese were happy to take it and were given complete control of the strategically located port for a bargain price of 280 million euros. Today Piraeus is number four in Europe, behind Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg. The port is the end point of the maritime Silk Road, from China across the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea. Beijing also controls its entrance for onward travel through the Suez Canal, with a naval base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa.

Silk Road project – anything but a marketing gimmick

The example of Greece shows the political effects of China’s increasing influence in some countries, says Günther Oettinger, the former EU Commissioner and Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg. “Before the European Union imposed symbolic sanctions on China in March, Greece liked the role of delaying and watering down resolutions against China. A rogue who thinks evil”, said the CDU politician in a guest article for the “Tagesspiegel” “. China’s expansion can no longer be stopped. “We cannot blame the Chinese for being smart. We can only blame ourselves for being so stupid,” said French President Emmanuel Macron, referring to China’s strategy, which is an increasingly large one in Europe’s economy Role to play. In fact, the EU countries watched China’s shopping spree for a long time with takeovers of technology companies such as the German robot manufacturer Kuka. “When China’s leadership launched the ‘New Silk Road’ project in 2013, many in Europe believed it was a marketing gag,” said Günther Oettinger. President Xi Jinping was very serious, as can be seen from the trade network that has now been established. In Europe, China prefers to help those states, such as Greece or Hungary, that are poorer than Western Europeans. These countries are to be tied closely to themselves by investing billions in infrastructure in order to create a “China-friendly Europe”, as a high-ranking EU diplomat of the “world” said.

No concerns from Berlin

The most recent decision by the EU Parliament, which Suspend discussions on the investment agreement reached with China at the end of last year . Among other things, it was supposed to regulate the access of European companies to the Chinese market, but met with growing opposition in the European Union. Critics complained that the agreement did not set any limits to China’s expansionist urge. This is unlikely to prevent the Chinese from entering the Tollerort container port in Hamburg. The negotiations are after NDR- Information well advanced and coordinated with the federal government. There are no concerns from the Chancellery, the Ministry of Economics and Transport, or the Foreign Office.

The meeting also emphasized the importance of having a deep understanding of the importance of doing a good job in 5G security, effectively grasping the characteristics of the stage, innovation, and complexity of 5G development and evolution, planning and collaborative innovation as a whole, and integrating security concepts and measures throughout 5G. Plan all aspects of the entire process of construction and integration of applications to achieve synchronization of 5G development and security.

The reason why 5G security is so important is that, on the one hand, the value brought by 5G is not simply to allow consumers to watch videos faster on mobile phones, but to create for the age of the industrial Internet and the Internet of Things. “In the future, a large number of scenarios will be transferred to 5G, and more critical infrastructure and important applications will also be built on 5G.” 360 security experts said.

On the other hand, 5G accelerates the interconnection of all things, opening up the virtual world and the physical world, so that attacks that were only in the virtual world in the past can turn cyber attacks into harm to the physical world through the Internet of Things, leading to social shutdowns, factory shutdowns, and large-scale Area power outages, this hazard far exceeds the intrusion of viruses and Trojan horses today.

“When tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of IoT devices are connected via 5G, we must consider how to ensure their security.” 360 security experts said. He pointed out that 5G specifically faces six cyber security challenges. First, the core network modules of 5G are more complex, and there will be more security issues when building private networks in conjunction with MEC; second, low-latency services expand the attack surface; third, large-connection services make 5G a high level of hacker attacks. Value goals; fourth, network slicing technology makes the network boundary blurred; fifth, the problem of pseudo base stations still exists; sixth, higher requirements for the protection of user location privacy.

Therefore, escorting 5G security is imminent. It is reported that 360 has discovered and assisted in repairing the world’s first 4G network protocol vulnerability, which allows attackers to hijack text messages and voice calls from any 4G terminal. This work makes 360 the first security team to enter the Global System for Mobile Communications Association (GSMA) Mobile Security Hall of Fame.

In the direction of 5G security, 360 conducts research from four aspects: terminal layer, network layer, edge layer, and platform application layer, and proposes corresponding security deployment plans. In 2020, 360 participated in the establishment of the power 5G application security management technology project in cooperation with the Electric Power Research Institute, and conducted in-depth research based on the key technologies of 5G regulatory business security protection.

At present, 360 has built a 5G open source platform to realize NSA’s terminal access and business data transmission. The follow-up will rely on the boofuzz ​​fuzzing test framework for protocol conformance testing. After automatically sending a mutation message each time, for different monitoring APIs, the current device status can be observed in real time through the protocol monitoring window to determine whether the device is abnormal. The tool can be deployed in private networks such as corporate campuses to cooperate with multi-network and multi-standard drive test systems to discover device 5G module protocol vulnerabilities.

Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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A case of skin pigmentation disorder caused by using whitening cream, melasma treatment (photo illustration) Nguyen Thu Trang (37 years old) went to the hospital because all the skin on her cheeks was blackened. She said that when she was young, she also had a few cheeks on her cheeks, but in the last few years, especially since her second child, the freckles on her cheeks have increased. “Some rapid blemishes have spread and tend to become spots. I am very worried, so I use “special treatment” cosmetics that have not improved yet. Many experienced people said that I have a hormonal disorder, leading to melasma, freckles. Someone tells me to take hormonal drugs (birth control pills) that can improve melasma, “said Trang. Obediently, she also bought a daily pack of oral contraceptives to try for a month, but the freckles were still thicker and thicker. Not to mention that taking oral contraceptives also made her periods go wrong. 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