Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 16 (China Securities Journal reporter Wang Yulu and Hu Yu) “Investment is more important to find companies that cross the bulls and bears.”
“We must play down the concept of bull and bear markets, and grasp structural trends and opportunities.”
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On the evening of April 15th, the “Golden Bull is Coming” live broadcast of the China Securities Journal frequently appeared. Dan Bin, chairman of Shenzhen Orient Harbor and Jinniu Private Equity Investment Manager, and Wang Hanfeng, chief strategist and managing director of CICC, discussed recent market conditions. , Macro policies and investment strategies were wonderfully shared.
The two guests said that the current market adjustment may not be in place, and market sentiment may further cool down. Investors should play down the concept of bull market and bear market, and should focus on grasping structural opportunities, mainly focusing on industries such as consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education.
Market adjustment is not yet in place
Wang Hanfeng said that on the whole, the stock market has slowly shown that the adjustment may be entering the second half of the process, but the valuation adjustment is not yet sufficient, and market sentiment may further cool down. “In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to various indicators, and pay attention to whether it will reach a staged bottom within the next one or two months.”
But Bin said that the short-term trend of the market is more difficult to judge. This adjustment may continue until the third quarter or the end of the year. By then, the valuation restoration should be nearing the end, and the valuation of listed companies will be more attractive.
Wang Hanfeng believes that current investors pay too much attention to the performance of the market’s broad-based index and ignore the structural trend of the market. It is recommended that investors play down the concept of bull and bear markets and should focus on structural opportunities. “The index can be used for reference, but don’t pay too much attention to it. What needs to be paid attention to is the clear trends in the next five to ten years and the leading companies that can represent the trends.
Optimistic about five types of industries
Recently, Dabaima has fallen successively. In Dan Bin’s view, the main reason is the high valuation of some companies. As the annual report continues to disclose, some companies’ profits did not increase significantly last year, but their stock prices have risen a lot. After the so-called slump, the valuation is still not low.
In the long run, but Bin is optimistic about the five types of industries: consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education. He said that he will not adjust the industry based on the short-term situation in a quarter, and he is especially taboo against continuous trading in the volatile market.
Regarding the liquor sector that everyone is concerned about, Bin Bin said that the cycle of consumer companies is particularly long. For example, tobacco companies in the United States have spanned many cycles. If any company in the liquor industry buys and holds it from the first day of listing, it will make money, and most of them can earn dozens or even hundreds of times in return. In the long run, there is still room for the liquor industry in the future.
For the pharmaceutical industry, Bin Bin said that he can focus on companies with leading technologies.
Recently, the market has frequent rotations. In Wang Hanfeng’s view, this is related to the relatively high proportion of short-term speculation in the market structure. Frequent rotations are not necessarily a very rational behavior. To find the direction of investment value in the medium and long term, we still need to see which direction will benefit from the development trend of our country. “If you want to fish, you have to go to places where you can easily catch fish. From the perspective of investment, China is currently in the stage of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. These are the places where it is easier to catch fish.”
The important thing is to find long-term profitable companies that cross the bulls and bears
But Bin said that great companies in history have grown up from small companies. To find a truly good company, one must judge from five dimensions: first, the company has no ceiling and there is unlimited room for growth; second, the company’s business model is simple , Reliable, easy to understand, recognized by more people, everyone has a high level of firewood; third, the company’s profitability is strong and sustainable, and its annual performance has maintained growth, and it will surely grow into a large company for more than ten consecutive years; Fourth, there are commercial barriers, and the moat is deep and wide; fifth, there is a good culture and a good team to resist the challenges of growth.
Bin said that he did not agree with the concept of “grouping” in the market. He said that concerns about inflation and liquidity will only interfere with short-term operations. From the perspective of a slightly long-term trend, these factors are not the fundamental factors affecting stocks. The real investment does not depend on the judgment of the index, but to find companies that can cross the bull-bear cycle, and the profitability of the company must be able to keep up. . The simpler the basis for investment decisions, the more effective.
But Bin said that investment should be made around the best few companies, and style rotation should not be used as an investment reference factor. As far as investors are concerned, it is not advisable to blindly chase hot spots, otherwise it is easy to chase high or run low. The core is to make long-term thinking based on changes in corporate profitability. (Finish)
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