More and more jobs will be performed by computers and machines in the future – not only in industry, but also in offices. Nevertheless, many Germans are not afraid of losing their jobs.
Increasing automation will destroy up to eight million jobs in Germany in the next five years, predict labor market experts. The prospects are gloomy, but only a few German employees are afraid. As a worldwide survey of 210,000 employees in 190 countries has shown, only 28 percent of German workers and employees fear that computers or robots could take their jobs away from them in the near future. The job portal Stepstone, the international job exchange association The Network and the management consultancy Boston Consulting Group took part in the survey. The other Europeans are just as carefree as the Germans. The French, Dutch and Danes are even more relaxed.
Asians are particularly concerned
Only in the banking and insurance industry is the proportion of employees who fear losing their jobs due to digitization higher. No wonder, given that many work processes in these industries are increasingly automated. “Both industries do not manufacture any physical products,” says BCG labor market expert Rainer Strack, one of the authors of the study. “All they have is people and IT.” But even in these industries, people in Europe are more carefree than in Asia. In the island nation of Singapore, 61 percent of the employees surveyed fear that growing digitalization will threaten their jobs. In China, too, where industry plays a major role, 48 percent of workers fear losing their jobs because of growing automation. In the US it’s 44 percent.
No preparation for change
So are the Germans too naive when it comes to automation? “Yes,” says the BCG specialist Strack. He is convinced that “Covid has catapulted us into the digital future for ten years.” After the factories, more and more office workers have to be prepared for the fact that they will lose their jobs through the use of computers. Nevertheless, according to the authors of the study, no one really prepares employees in Germany for the changes. “One example would be the truck driver who will become obsolete at some point,” says Strack. “Actually, I should tell the truck driver 50 new jobs for which he can qualify. But today the truck driver doesn’t even know that.” After all, in the survey, a good half of German employees (55 percent) say they are ready to retrain. That is less than the global average of 68 percent, but more than the proportion of Americans. Just under half of them can imagine learning a new profession.
The shortage of skilled workers reassured
It is quite possible that the Germans are so relaxed about the possible dangers of automation for another reason: the high demand for skilled workers. “In the next ten years five million people will leave the job market. This will be a trend reversal for the first time, but it is also a huge opportunity for many,” says Stepstone managing director Sebastian Dettmers, who contributed to the study. Meanwhile, despite the Corona crisis, many German companies are optimistic about the future, as a survey of a good 2,800 companies by the Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) has shown. According to this, a third of them want to invest more this year than in 2020, and almost 30 percent want to create jobs. Around 40 percent of the companies surveyed plan to produce more than in the previous year, only 24 percent less. “In the here and now, companies continue to struggle with the various restrictions,” says IW economic expert Michael Grömling. “However, the ongoing vaccinations ensure that companies are largely optimistic about the second half of the year.”
BA speaks of a noticeable recovery
Indeed, the recovery in industry should also stimulate the labor market. In April, the employment barometer collected by the Munich Ifo Institute reached 98.3 points, the highest value since the beginning of 2020. Your colleagues from the Nuremberg IAB even measured the highest level since May 2019 in their labor market barometer published on Tuesday. The Federal Employment Agency (BA) also speaks of a “noticeably revived” demand for workers in April. According to the authority, new jobs have been created in almost all industries. The job index of the employment agency (BA-X) rose by two to 104 points – it had already increased by four points in March. The construction, manufacturing and information and communication industries developed particularly positively. In contrast, the areas that are particularly affected by the lockdown currently want to hire significantly fewer people, such as the hospitality industry.
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