With the wave of Covid-19 infections in India continuing to ravage the South Asian country, many epidemiologists are trying to predict where will be the next ‘outbreak’ after India.
Nigeria will become the next big Covid-19 “outbreak” after India. (Source: Anadolu Agency/Getty) And experts are cautiously observing a developing country, with a large area, disparities in health services and unequal access to vaccines, like India, that is Nigeria. With 200 million people, it is the most populous country in West Africa and the 7th most populous country in the world. Ngozi Erondui, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House Center for Global Health Security in the UK, said that “Nigeria is really vulnerable” and “has a lot in common with India”. When rich countries are not willing to share The world will not be able to do anything to prevent Covid-19 from ravaging Nigeria like the situation is happening in the past days in India. A more equitable distribution of vaccines could build a “firewall” against the rise in infections in Nigeria, as well as in other less developed countries. However, that will require the more economically developed countries of the world to share rescue resources with poorer countries. The tragic case of India proves that the vaccine-rich country in the world will not be in a hurry to help poor countries on distant continents. In fact, Africa is not necessarily synonymous with “poverty”. The continent is huge and diverse, comprising 54 countries with 1.2 billion people running economies from large to small, rich to poor, strong to weak. Likewise, African countries’ pandemic experiences vary widely. South Africa, one of the wealthiest countries on the continent, was hit hard last summer and then returned in January. Officials in the region recorded more than 54,000 deaths. The mortality rate is 93 deaths per 100,000 population, a number far below the US 175 deaths per 100,000 population, but much higher than the global average of 38 deaths. per 100,000 inhabitants. So far, many less industrialized African countries have avoided catastrophic spikes in infections, recording fewer deaths than rich countries. A total of 580,000 Americans have died from Covid-19 while only 1,600 Nigerians have died from the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 virus – “opportunistic” virus However, that doesn’t mean Covid-19 won’t reach Nigeria and other African countries, it just means it hasn’t arrived yet. Lawrence Gostin, a global health expert at Georgetown University, told T he Daily Beast : “I am seeing the possibility that the Covid-19 fires will ravage around the world in the weeks and months to come. And I’m most worried about Africa.” According to Mr. Gostin, “the crisis in India is a leading indicator of what is to come in other low- and middle-income countries”. Despite its crowded cities, limited public health measures and a patchwork health care system, India has so far been considered relatively fortunate. The South Asian country has 1.37 billion people but only 160,000 deaths so far in March, with a rate of 11 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Then, in April, a new and more contagious variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, known as B.1.617, emerged and spread across India, causing a record increase in cases and deaths. green. In just a few weeks, India had nearly 50,000 more deaths. The death rate rose to 15 per 100,000 population. When this article was published, the Covid-19 wave in India was underway, but the trend was already decreasing. The rate of new cases and deaths is decreasing. And while it is predicted that tens of thousands of more Indians will die before this spike is over, at least the pandemic has not gotten any worse in the country. But the SARS-CoV-2 virus is an opportunistic virus. It always finds places that are densely populated but have no protection. Spreading through the air from person to person, Covid-19 establishes a “laboratory” in each body that the virus infects. Each SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates after two weeks of infection for as long as it is active, and seeks to evolve so that it can create a new variant that is increasingly contagious. New variants help the virus spread even faster in a self-reinforcing cycle that ends only with drastic social distancing, vaccinations and antibodies among survivors, or more likely a combination of the virus. all three methods to cut off the transmission route of Covid-19. It is no coincidence that SARS-CoV-2 thrived in India this month. Popular religious festivals have attracted thousands of people who attended without wearing masks. Meanwhile, India’s vaccination effort is very bad. According to statistics, the South Asian country has fully vaccinated only 3% of the population, compared with more than 30% in the US. The global average for full immunization is also a little over 3%. From the epidemiologist’s point of view, Nigeria, with its many overcrowded cities, high poverty rates and shabby health system, is quite similar to India, but worse in some respects. India has at least some domestic vaccine manufacturers, while Nigeria has none. The African country must import all doses of the vaccine from outside. That explains why Nigeria only partially immunizes 1% of the population and almost no one is fully vaccinated. The Lagos government is expected to receive 84 million doses of the vaccine from AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson in the coming weeks. But that number is only enough to inject a fifth of the country’s population. Meanwhile, the proportion that experts say could lead to “herd immunity” is vaccination of three-quarters of the population, which blocks most routes of transmission and can last up to year 2022. Shortage side, surplus side To help Nigeria and the underserved countries, the rich countries of the world should stop hoarding vaccines excessively. Of course, more shots are not a panacea, and even a country with many vaccines can have trouble administering. However, the vaccine shortage, and the hesitation among people who doubt the vaccine’s effectiveness, could further slow the vaccination process. Shaun Truelove, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said that “the only way to know if Nigeria is managing vaccines well is to keep shipping the vaccine to the country”. Global supply is not the biggest problem. The United States, a country with many vaccine manufacturers, has a stockpile of more than 60 million doses of vaccine while continuing to have more vaccines supplied by factories, while vaccination rates are falling. especially for Republicans. It was only a few weeks after the sudden spike in Covid-19 in India that the administration of President Joe Biden promised to ship an additional number of vaccines to New Delhi. The AstraZeneca vaccine isn’t even authorized in the US. For Americans, those doses of vaccines are not only redundant but also useless. The problem of severe delays in the release of excess vaccines was anticipated a year ago. In the spring of 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) together with a number of international public-private partners, came together to establish the Global Access to Vaccines Covid-19 initiative, or COVAX. The COVAX initiative allows rich countries to pay for vaccines to poor countries. COVAX’s goal was to deliver 100 million doses by March, but it actually delivered less than 40 million doses. “This has failed Nigeria and many countries,” Mr. Erondu said [trong việc tiêm chủng]”. America is part of the problem. The Trump administration has refused to sign on to COVAX, a move that reflects its narrow “America First” philosophy. The Trump administration at the time either didn’t understand, or didn’t care, that vaccinating poor countries also helped protect rich countries. After all, the virus doesn’t care about borders. Mr. Biden reversed the decision in February. The administration has committed $4 billion in cash, making the US the largest donor of COVAX, albeit somewhat belatedly. In a parallel move, Mr. Biden also signaled support for a controversial proposal to give the WTO a copyright exemption for a Covid-19 vaccine. In theory, the decision would allow any manufacturer in any country to produce doses of the vaccine. However, experts are still divided on whether the patent waiver will lead to more doses of the vaccine being shipped to countries in need. Meanwhile, many richer countries have been slow to implement their COVAX commitments. Meanwhile, strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus continue to target unprotected populations from one area to another. Nigeria is about to become the “storm center” of Covid-19. However, this West African country may not suffer the same fate as India. Because vaccines are available. Existing mechanisms will get the vaccine to the countries that need it most. It is worth mentioning that many countries have a surplus of vaccines but do not appreciate the importance of sharing vaccines with other countries. (According to Daily Beast)
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