Northern Currents 2 – Cards to Defuse Eastern Ukraine Tensions?

Northern Currents 2 and the situation in eastern Ukraine

Escalating tensions in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine and the construction of the gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany are the most de disagreements in the security policy of Europe – the Atlantic today. Each issue has its own stalemate. However, contacting these two issues together will expand the negotiating space and create opportunities for stakeholders, as well as can lead to a solution that is in the interests of all parties.

The pipelines are used for the construction of the Northern Flow 2 project at Mukran Port. Photo: Reuters

Russia has now strengthened its forces on its border with Ukraine, accusing Kiev of conducting “not one but many provocative acts.” Meanwhile, Ukraine urged Russia to withdraw its troops from the border area and end what Kiev called “military fallacies and misinformation.” NATO and the US also demanded that Russia stop gathering troops near its border with Ukraine and called the current situation “deeply concerning.”

Efforts through the Minsk agreement and the progress of the Normandy Quartet (made up of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine) to resolve the conflict between the parties in eastern Ukraine failed.

U.S. sanctions on The North Stream 2 delayed the construction of the project but “everything has its price.” The gas pipeline project was a source of tension between the U.S. and Germany at a time when the relationship needed to be strengthened. Of course, the sanctions on the North Stream 2 also deepen the rifts in Russian-American relations.

According to The Atlantic Council, the new approach when linking these two issues together can bring many opportunities. Therefore, Northern Flow 2 can be used as a bargaining card to ensure a more important goal: It is to address the current escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine.

Russia will not ignore if conflict breaks out in eastern Ukraine. Moscow will not withdraw its troops from the border area until it sees the benefits of this action. Therefore, putting The Northern Flow 2 on the negotiating table can bring the possibility of changing the current situation.

Cards that change the situation in eastern Ukraine?

The Northern Flow 2 is an important project for Russia and Germany but it is still an agreement that has not been finalized even though the work has been completed by 95%. Even if construction can be completed by the end of the year as planned, U.S. sanctions in December 2020 when it comes into effect will prevent insurers and inspection companies from carrying out the necessary procedures for this pipeline to actually come into operation.

Recently, the European Parliament also called for an end to this project. France’s Minister for European Issues even suggested it was possible to end the Northern Flow project as a response to the poisoning of opposition figures Navalny.

With these developments, observer Colin Cleary suggested that Russia would likely bring an end to the strengthening of its forces on the border with Ukraine in exchange for ensuring the Northern Flow agreement would continue to operate.

The Covid-19 epidemic and falling energy prices have increased the financial burden on Russia. However, sanctions alone will not be able to persuade Russia to withdraw from eastern Ukraine. Only the mitigation of sanctions related to the North Stream 2 can make Russia make concessions because the move can be understood as part of an effort to bring about more normal economic relations between Russia and the West.

The U.S. has repeatedly opposed the North Stream 2. However, the moment decided it all. If the former Trump administration is really serious about ending the North Stream 2, it should have stopped the project from the summer of 2017, when the Anti-Enemy of America through Sanctions (CAATSA) bill became law and the construction of The Northern Flow 2 has not yet begun. The U.S. missed that moment.

Until December 2019, the U.S. Congress passed mandatory sanctions related to ships constructing the Northern Flow 2. Swiss pipeline installation company Allseas immediately withdrew from the project, but by this time the Northern Flow 2 had largely been completed.

Meanwhile, Russia demanded that Ukraine respect the “special status” with the Eastern region but that would destroy Ukraine’s status as a country. Unless something is placed on the negotiating table, such as turning on the green lightor the North Stream 2 or economic and trade prospects for Russia, otherwise the Kremlin will not make concessions in this regard.

Observer Colin Cleary, who served as Director of European Energy Diplomacy in the U.S. State Department, said the agreement to bring the Northern Flow 2 in exchange for targets in Donbass would serve the interests of all parties. If the Kremlin rejects the offer, the path of “many sticks, fewer carrots” will open./.