Prelude to the Russia-Ukraine war?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request to speak to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about the escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine was ignored, leaving Russia-Ukraine relations strained.

80,000 Russian soldiers in border areas

Ukrainian President Iuliia Mendel’s spokesman on April 12 said Russia sent more than 40,000 troops to Ukraine’s eastern border and another 40,000 to Crimea – which was declared Russian since 2014. “Van Our presidential room has asked to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin. We have not received an answer and hope that this is not a refusal to talk, “Ms. Iuliia Mendel told Interfax and added that the request for negotiations was sent on March 26, after when four Ukrainian soldiers were killed by bombardment in the East.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops in the eastern Donbass region on April 9, amid escalating tensions.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry asked Russia to end what it called “military rhetoric and misinformation.” In mid-April, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Paris to speak with European leaders about Russia’s actions and the growing conflict in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskiyy is scheduled to meet with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan – an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he “has not seen any requests for the past few days”. Confirming that Russia’s military forces are free to move within the country as appropriate and that the movement of troops near the Ukrainian border and the exercises pose no threat, the Kremlin reiterated that Their support for the separatists is limited to political and humanitarian support.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits the army in the Donbass region east.

Last week, President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of “dangerous provocations” in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and said Russian-Ukrainian political advisers were trying to organize a new round of talks. may take place in Normandy format – a multilateral dialogue involving French and German leaders. German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer on April 12 also urged Moscow to announce its intentions in the region, saying that if Vladimir Putin’s government “has nothing to hide it can be easily explained. the reason why the army is moving “.

And Manfred Weber, a prominent member of the European Parliament, calls Russia’s military build-up a limited test of the West, warning that if the situation continues to escalate, Moscow will face off. with new sanctions.

Close to the risk of conflict

The fighting in eastern Ukraine had calmed down since July last year but has now heated up and has seen violence erupt. The question now is whether Russia’s beginning to gather troops along the Ukrainian border is a prelude to war? In fact, last year, Moscow and Kiev agreed to better enforce a prolonged ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, namely the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist regions.

However, President Volodymyr Zelenskiyy was unable to fulfill his promise while running for office. Violence in the Donbass began to increase in early February when Ukraine dispatched new forces and weapons to the border line; at the same time announced the joint exercise plan with NATO member countries in this country’s territory.

In this regard, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Ukraine’s membership in NATO could lead to a large-scale escalation in the separatist republics of southeastern Ukraine and cause cooperation. action is irreversible for Ukraine. According to the Russian side, Ukraine’s accession to NATO is just an illusion, because one of the principles for a country to join this organization is that there is no internal conflict, otherwise, it will turn NATO into a war party. . Russia also responded by increasing its border controls with Ukraine.

Soldiers of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) during a training exercise near Donetsk city in August 2020. Photo: EPA.

“Obviously, Ukraine wants to show its toughness to Russia, wants to resolve the internal conflict by means of strength. At the same time, if Ukraine joins NATO, Ukraine can expect the support of its allies to confront Russia directly in resolving disputes, ”commented AP firm.

In addition, with the new administration of the United States, President Volodymyr Zelenskiyy began to make decisions to allow Washington to participate more directly in the deadlock in the East. However, according to NATO officials, Russia is unlikely to escalate the problem for Ukraine because they are also worried about bogged down in a costly conflict without a clear exit strategy. , especially the conflict that has the potential to disappoint Western countries. Furthermore, the element of military intervention on behalf of Donetsk and Luhansk does not have the same political appeal to the Russian public as the conflicts in Georgia and Crimea were.

On the Ukraine side, observers also said that the country did not want to engage in a protracted war with its larger neighbor. “Kiev understands that if they take any offensive action against Russia, they risk losing the existing support of the West,” the Times article stated. Also according to the Times magazine, the current Russian – Ukraine tensions are also a challenge to NATO and a test for the US President Joe Biden administration.