(Original title: The strongest “short” is coming again? The 280 billion chip leader was reduced by the “national team”, and 2.6 billion cashed in two days! The chip industry has been critically hit again? This internal cause is the key)
The pace of reduction and cash out of the National Large Fund seems to be increasingly anxious.
This time, the target of the big fund reduction is SMIC, the chip leader with a market value of over 280 billion. On the evening of April 15, according to the latest data disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (“Big Fund”) reduced its holdings of 100 million SMIC Hong Kong stocks on April 9 and 12. The proportion dropped from 9.62% to 8.93%.
Prior to this, the big funds have successively reduced their holdings of Jingfang Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation. In addition, Anji Technology, Beidou Xingtong, Changchuan Technology, Taiji Industry, and Changjiang Electronics Technology have all been in the reduction plan of the big funds.
In the past, China’s chip industry’s largest gold owner has now become one of the main “short” forces, which may be related to the investment rhythm of the national fund. It is reported that from 2019 to 2024 is the payback period of the first phase of the National Fund, so the large fund’s reduction and exit of chip stocks will continue with a high probability.
At present, large funds still hold SMIC, Anji Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Jingfang Technology, Changjiang Electronics Technology, Sanan Optoelectronics, Changchuan Technology, North China Huachuang, Tongfu Microelectronics, Ninestar, Taiji Industrial, 23 A-share companies including Goodix Technology, Guokewei, Jingjiawei, Chipengwei, China Resources Micro, Rockchip, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Saiwei Electronics, Jacques Technology, VeriSilicon, Beidouxingtong, Wanye Enterprise, etc. .
280 billion chip giant is underweight by big funds
It should come, it will come. But what surprised the market a little is that this time the big fund selling target was SMIC.
On the evening of April 15, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed two data on shareholding reductions, which aroused market attention.
On April 9, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund reduced its holdings of SMIC’s H shares, with an average price of HK$26.15, involving 45 million shares, and its shareholding ratio dropped from 10.19% to 9.62%;
On April 12, the big fund made another move, reducing its holdings of SMIC’s H shares by 55 million, with an average price of 25.56 Hong Kong dollars, and its shareholding ratio dropped from 9.62% to 8.93%.
Based on the average price and quantity of the reduction, the accumulated cash amount of the two major fund reductions reached HK$2.583 billion.
It is worth mentioning that under the sell-off of big funds, SMIC’s stock price was under pressure on April 9th and April 12th, and it closed in the green market for 2 consecutive trading days. Among them, the decline on April 12th was even greater. Close to 4%.
As of the close of April 15, the total market value of SMIC was approximately HK$286.97 billion, of which the A stock market was valued at HK$131.68 billion and the Hong Kong stock market was valued at HK$155.29 billion.
As the largest and most complete chip manufacturer in mainland China, SMIC was once known as the “Hope of the Village” under the interference of the United States. So why did the big funds suddenly reduce their holdings?
First look at the performance level. On March 31, 2021, SMIC disclosed its 2020 annual report. According to the performance report, SMIC’s 2020 revenue was 26.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%; the net profit attributable to the company reached 4.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.9%, and the gross profit margin increased from 20.6% in the previous year to 23.6. %.
This is a transcript that satisfies the market. The next day, SMIC’s H-share share price soared by nearly 5%. From this point of view, the reason for the reduction of large funds is not because SMIC’s operating level has changed. In fact, SMIC’s operating environment in 2021 will be much better than in 2020.
At present, the chip industry is in a very tight state: shortage of production capacity and rising prices have become the “main theme” of the global chip industry. At the same time, the trend of the global semiconductor industry’s transfer to China continues. Under the superposition of the two, the production capacity of China’s semiconductor industry chain is tight.
On April 15th, TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia stated on a conference call that the company’s customers are currently experiencing capacity shortages across the entire industry. The global chip shortage may continue at least until the end of this year, or even 2022.
China Galaxy Securities believes that at present, the world is facing a shortage of semiconductors. The domestic supply chain has advantages in the recovery of the supply chain due to better epidemic control. The semiconductor industry is booming. In 2021, the semiconductor industry will continue to maintain rapid growth under the dual logic of technological innovation and upgrading and domestic substitution. .
In this view, the reduction of SMIC by the National Large Fund may be due to its own funding arrangements and investment cycle considerations.
The real reason for the reduction of large funds
In fact, the reduction of chip stocks held by large funds is not new in the capital market. In the past year, the first phase of large funds has respectively completed the reduction of 1% of Jingfang Technology and 2% of Zhaoyi Innovation.
Entering 2021, the steps of large funds to reduce their holdings and cash out seem to be increasingly anxious. On January 23, it disclosed the shareholding reduction plan of Jingfang Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation and Anji Technology in one breath, and the reduction ratios did not exceed 2%. Among them, Zhaoyi Innovation and Jingfang Technology have been reduced in some stocks. ; On April 7, it re-announced its 10.154,600 share reduction plan for Big Dipper; on April 13, another member of the big fund’s reduction list was added: Changchuan Technology, which also reduced its holdings by 2%.
In this way, the reduction of large funds is not aimed at a certain chip company, but systematically and comprehensively reduce holdings and withdraw funds.
This may be related to the investment rhythm of the National Large Fund. It is reported that the first phase of the large fund has invested in the chip industry for more than 5 years. According to the previous investment plan, 2019-2024 is the investment payback period of the first phase of the national large fund. Therefore, the large fund’s reduction and withdrawal of chip stocks are still probable. will continue.
At present, large funds still hold SMIC, Anji Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Jingfang Technology, Changjiang Electronics Technology, Sanan Optoelectronics, Changchuan Technology, North China Huachuang, Tongfu Microelectronics, Ninestar, Taiji Industrial, 23 A-share companies including Goodix Technology, Guokewei, Jingjiawei, Chipengwei, China Resources Micro, Rockchip, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Saiwei Electronics, Jacques Technology, VeriSilicon, Beidouxingtong, Wanye Enterprise, etc. .
An insider once told a reporter from a brokerage firm China that since the establishment of the first phase of the National Fund, it has made great profits by investing in listed companies in the semiconductor industry. Will not have a major impact.
Xu Tao, chief analyst of the electronics group of CITIC Securities, previously stated that when the first phase of the large fund enters the payback period, the second phase will take over the investment, but the second phase will not directly take over the first phase. Leading companies in various fields of integrated circuits will continue to be the key investment targets of the second phase, and the manufacturing sector will still account for the largest proportion.
The second phase of the big fund has invested 22.1 billion, and bet on SMIC
The first phase of the large funds reduced their holdings and withdrew, but the second phase of the large funds invested in China’s chip industry is increasing, and SMIC became the key investment target of the second phase of the large funds.
In May 2020, the second phase of the National Grand Fund and the second phase of the Shanghai Integrated Circuit Fund injected US$1.5 billion and US$750 million in SMIC’s subsidiary SMIC. Calculated at the exchange rate at the time, the capital injection was equivalent to RMB 10.6 billion and RMB 5.3 billion respectively;
In July 2020, SMIC went public on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The second phase of the Big Fund invested 3.5 billion yuan to participate in its strategic placement, and was allocated 127 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 1.65%;
In December 2020, the second phase of the Big Fund once again entered SMIC’s new Beijing project-SMIC Beijing Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Beijing) Co., Ltd., which produces 12-inch integrated circuit wafers and integrated circuit packaging series, with a total investment of 7.6 billion US dollars. Among them, SMIC’s investment accounted for 51%, and the second phase of the large fund invested US$1.2245 billion, and the investment accounted for 24.49%.
The total amount of these three investments alone is as high as 22.12 billion yuan, which is higher than the total amount of cash in the first phase of large funds in recent years. At present, the second phase of the Big Fund has invested in 9 companies, of which SMIC, SMIC Southern, and SMIC Beijing occupy 3 seats. This shows that the second phase of the Big Fund attaches great importance and support to SMIC.
According to data, the registered capital of the second phase of the Big Fund is as high as 204.15 billion yuan, and there are 27 shareholders, including the Ministry of Finance, China Development Bank Finance, China Tobacco and other state agencies, as well as national funds, as well as local government background funds, central enterprise funds, Private enterprise funds, etc., will continue to invest in China’s semiconductor industry under the responsibility of the first phase.
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