Three scenarios of Power Master Plan 8 create renewable energy sources accounting for 38-42% by 2045

The proportion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the total electricity production of the selected scenarios all meet the target of renewable energy development in Vietnam’s Renewable Energy Development Strategy, reaching 32% by 2030 and 32% by 2030. 40.3% in 2045…

Power planning 8 proposes 3 scenarios for power source development. The Institute of Energy (Ministry of Industry and Trade) has just released a report explaining the conclusions of Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh on the national electricity development plan for the period 2021-2030 with a vision to 2045 (Planning for electricity development). electricity 8). In which, receiving opinions on reviewing the scale of power source development, reasonable power source structure compared to electricity demand in each period, especially in the period to 2030; In order to prevent unreasonable backup of power sources (such as the plan to develop the total installed capacity of 167GW of power sources by 2030, while the load demand is forecast at 86.3GW), the Consultant said Power planning. 8 proposed 3 scenarios for developing power sources to meet 3 scenarios of low load demand, base load and high load. The results of capacity balance of 3 selected scenarios show that renewable energy sources (wind and solar) have the proportion of 24% in 2020; 24-27% in 2030 and 38-42% in 2045 depending on the load scenario. The crude reserve ratio if including wind and solar is always high at 60-80%, but wind and solar power sources are variable renewable energy sources, contributing very little to power system redundancy, especially At the time of maximum load in the evening, there is no sun. Specifically, in the dry season, in the evening, when the national wind power occurs, it only reaches the guaranteed capacity (about 10% of the installed capacity for onshore wind and 20% of the installed capacity for offshore wind). ), at this time, the national crude reserve ratio of power supply will only reach 21% in 2020, 11%-14% in 2030 and 5%-8% in 2045 depending on the load scenario. The consultant said that in order to confirm the redundant or insufficient spare capacity, it is necessary to calculate the expected number of hours that do not meet the load demand. The calculation results show that the reserve scale as above ensures the reliability of the system’s power supply. The proportion of electricity from renewable energy sources (including hydroelectricity) in total electricity production of the selected scenarios all meet the objectives of renewable energy development in Vietnam’s Renewable Energy Development Strategy, reaching 32% in 2030 and 40.3% in 2045. According to the Institute of Energy, although the simulation of energy storage sources has been included, the minimum-cost planning model still chooses to cut a part of renewable energy to meet the flexible needs of the system instead. because investing in more storage resources, because investing in these resources will not be economically viable. The reduction rate calculated from the model is about 1.5% of renewable energy output/year (excluding cuts due to local transmission). The use of a partial reduction in renewable energy to meet flexible demand is used by countries around the world, and accepting a partial reduction in renewable energy is also one of the solutions. to develop renewable energy sources. At the request of ministries, agencies and appraisal councils, Power Master Plan 8 has included additional power source options that occur in addition to the above 3 scenarios to provide information for competent authorities to consider in determining the power supply. operating. In particular, the most difficult option to build power sources and grids is when there are risks of stacking, including high load growth and slow progress of thermal power sources (especially domestic gas exploitation sources). Accordingly, the proposal proposes to select the power source development scenario corresponding to the baseline load demand forecast, which is the selected scenario to calculate the design of the transmission grid, calculate economic and financial criteria. of Power Planning 8. At the same time, the project proposes a power source scenario corresponding to the forecast of high load demand to be considered for use in the management and development of power sources, ensuring to meet demand in the event that the national economy and electricity demand are met. load demand increased dramatically. In case of risk of stacking (high load, slow progress of coal-fired power sources, domestic gas-fired power sources), it will be necessary to add wind power, solar power, flexible power sources, etc. operate ICE to meet the demand for electricity and build more one-way lines from the South Central region to the North to transmit the capacity of power plants.