Porto and Bayern couldn’t get back in the way, so what about Dortmund and Liverpool? Opportunities are not much, but we all always know that, in football, anything can happen.
Chelsea advanced to the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in seven years, despite a 1–0 defeat in the second leg. Surprisingly, in Tuesday night’s game, Thomas Tuchel’s side failed to score and Porto did just that. In theory, the Blues’ expected goal tcoring (xG) is 1.1 and Porto’s is 0.6.
The same happened during PSG’s match against Bayern at the Parc des Princes. The home side played better, creating an expected 2.1 goals that did not once put the ball into the net, eventually receiving a 1–0 defeat to Bayern with only 1.3 goalscoring ability.
Fortunately for PSG, they have built a very good foundation from the first leg with a capital of three away goals. It was also a strange result, because in reality, Bayern were the better team that day. Hansi Flick’s pupils made 31 tackles and an expected goal t3.6, while PSG were much lower, just 1.3.
Bayern were eliminated after making 45 shots in two legs against PSG
These figures show that the Champions League is really attractive, fierce and extremely unpredictable. The team that played better, created more chances is unlikely to have won, and the winner is unlikely to be the team to go on. The result depends on quite a few factors and luck is an important factor. But above all, don’t lose in the first leg.
This seems bad news for Liverpool and Dortmund, who are plotting a comeback. Especially when they played very disappointingly in the first leg. Liverpool had an expected 0.83 goals in a 1–3 defeat to Real, while Dortmund were 0.97 in a 1–2 loss to Man City. According to analysis from the Euro Club Index, the yellow-and-black team has only a 13% chance of going on. Liverpool are slightly higher at 15%.
History of course doesn’t stand for under-weakers. In 13 defeats in the first leg of the knock-out rounds in European competition, Liverpool were eliminated up to 11 times. Similarly to Dortmund, they were eliminated from the Champions League 6/7 times in the first leg.
According to analysis from the Euro Club Index, Liverpool have a 15% chance of going on
Sometimes the feat occurs, as in the 2018/19 season Liverpool won 4–0 against Barca to reverse the previous 0–3 loss. But you know, if it happened often people didn’t call it a feat.
Not everything against Dortmund and Liverpool, though. Unlike Bayern and Porto, they played the second leg at home, and at home indeed, Signal Iduna Park with Anfield, rather than on the ground.
In addition, the task of both is also simpler with 1 goal achieved away. This is a huge advantage. Of those who won 2–1 in the first leg of the Champions League at home, the number of teams eliminated (15) was more than the next (12). And Real, who have played in the European Cup 10 times, led 3-1 at home, but were eliminated four times.
Liverpool on a legendary night out against Barca in 2019
So anything can happen. But quite certainly, Liverpool and Dortmund were forced to be better than themselves a week ago. They don’t need to create a lot of chances often, but when it comes, even with a very small table-to-table ability, they have to immediately turn them into goals.
Finally, you know, Champions League success has to do with luck. Liverpool, like Dortmund, should hope it is on their side so that everything they do is correct. As in 2019 at Anfield, Georginio Wijnaldum coming on as a substitute for Andrew Robertson was perhaps the best decision Juergen Klopp had ever made, with Divock Origi suddenly making a hero and telling him from God that Alexander-Arnold launched an unprecedentedly daring corner kick.
A crazy result can only be made up of moments of madness, and every number is always for reference only.
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