Text | Xiao Tian

The era of the stock of the sharing economy is coming, and the pioneers are all going public.

From Youke Workshop, Airbnb to Monster Charging, they have all landed in the U.S. stock market one after another. In March of this year, it was reported that Harbin Travel plans to go to the United States for IPO, and the shared office Wework plans to go public on SPAC.

But judging from the listing experience of the predecessors, none of the companies seems to be going well. The unicorn Airbnb’s IPO has been delayed due to factors such as the epidemic and the U.S. election, and the company’s valuation has fallen from US$26 billion to US$18 billion; the “shared charging treasure’s first share” monster charging has fallen below its issue price in just two weeks after its listing .

On the one hand, the company’s profit model and the fragile capital chain under the concept of the sharing economy are all questioning how far the sharing economy can go. On the other hand, after a few years of silence for shared bicycles, shared motorcycles became the outlet last year.The new travel “Rainbow War” is on the verge, and colorful shared motorcycles “suddenly like a spring breeze”, blooming again and again.

In this context, recently, Songguo Travel, a shared motorcycle field, reported that it will go public in the United States this year, and the fund-raising scale is expected to be 300 million US dollars. As the sixth company in the sharing economy field that plans to go public, how will this dark horse compete with giants on a crowded track? There is a good chance that Songguo will win the journey. Is it really feasible?

“Emerging markets” bear a “pine cone”

On festivals and holidays, there are waves of travellers in waves. They carry schoolbags and board the train to return to their hometown, returning from the first- and second-tier cities to their parents and relatives in fifth- and sixth-tier cities.

But at the moment of getting off the bus, limited by the cramped public transportation of the local county, the number of flights is small, the waiting time is long, the rental of black cars is more but expensive, and the Didi, which is used in big cities, has not settled. These problems have been troubled year after year. Visiting relatives driving car after car.

At this time, the rows of shared motorcycles parked on the side of the road, the eye-catching yellow color can hardly not attract people’s attention.In front of each car, there was a sticker “No deposit, two yuan for 20 minutes, and WeChat Alipay can scan it.” This wording deeply attracted these people who are eager to go home to reunite.

Unlike first- and second-tier cities, limited by the transportation system of fifth- and sixth-tier cities, these demands exist in large numbers in 1,300 counties in China. And where there is demand, there is a market, where there is a market, there is a business, and some people are already eyeing this business.

Four years ago, 36-year-old Zhai Guanglong stepped into the entrepreneurial army of the sharing economy and founded Songguo Travel. It is different from the shared bicycles that can be seen everywhere in cities now, because it focuses on “the best way to travel in the county.” For many people, if it were not for the news of the upcoming listing in the United States, Songguo Travel might not be familiar to the public.

Judging from the current layout, this company, which has only been established for only three years, has not appeared in first- and second-tier cities. In third- and fourth-tier cities, it also deliberately avoids giants such as Meituan, Haro and Qingju, but is deeply rooted in Such sinking markets as counties and county-level cities in fifth- and sixth-tier cities.

According to the data provided by Songuo Travel, as of the end of December 2020, Songuo motorcycles have landed in 24 provinces, nearly 1,000 counties and county-level cities in China, with nearly 50 million users and more than 3 million orders per day. According to the statistics of average daily service users, Songguo Travel is in an absolute leading position in the county market.

In 2020, the entire shared motorcycle industry is making a comeback. Whether it is Qingju, Hello, or Meituan, the market will be focused on the second, third, and fourth-tier cities. In addition to the anxious battles between giants, many cities have once again China’s policy was turned out, beating the leading companies in the shared motorcycle industry.

From this perspective, today when the overall situation of each track has been set, the Pinecone Bicycle, which is not attached to any giant, has become a “bright spot” that has emerged in China’s Internet industry in recent years.

Can a shared motorcycle track be established?

The shared bicycles, which are committed to solving the “last mile” problem, have been relying on low-cost subsidies to cultivate and compete for the market since their birth. Race track players have used “burning money” to first expand the market and accumulate huge stability. user. Nowadays, bicycle sharing no longer exists as an independent business model. It has completely become an integral part of the big Internet giants’ corporate ecosystem, and a tool that exerts other ecological synergies besides profitability.

With the gradual peaking of the market space, based on the demand for corporate profit growth, the Big Three are considering maximizing the commercial value of existing users, even if there are waves of users saying that they will never ride shared bicycles again. , Shared bicycles have taken the most direct path-price increases.

From the investment vent to the giants’ wrestling field, shared bicycles finally went to the same place.However, when the sharing economy craze completely receded, they gave birth to a “freak”-shared bicycles. Although the business model is similar to shared bicycles, the former has been proven to be profitable without price increases.

In April last year, Meituan piloted motorcycles in small cities in Hunan, Guangdong, and Fujian. Discovering that the economic model is impressive, Meituan immediately launched the “Hundred Days War” blitz, aiming to concentrate 2 million motorcycles in 100 days. This data exceeds the total number of Didi motorcycles in the previous three years.

“Pearl Harbor is gone, what did we do?”Zhang Zhidong, general manager of Didi’s two-wheeler division and CEO of Qingju Bicycles, likened Meituan’s surprise attack on motorcycles to a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, and is organizing a full counterattack.

Earlier, the person in charge of the Harbin Moped Division also stated that Harbin Moped has returned to profit in 2019. In the absence of new investment vehicles, the Moped is the most profitable department of the entire company, and subsequent development profits may be higher. There is even speculation in the industry that Haro can use the shared electric vehicle business to subsidize the core bicycle business.

Judging from the actions of the giants, shared motorcycles may be a good track.

In general, the manufacturing cost of a shared bicycle is about 1,000 yuan, while the shared motorcycle is as high as 2,000-2,500 yuan; in terms of operation and maintenance costs, due to the need to charge and replace the battery, the motorcycle is more than three times that of a bicycle.

If the second, third, and fourth-tier markets that the giants compete for prove to be profitable, the fifth and sixth-tier cities can also be profitable.

After all, the core economic circle of the fifth- and sixth-tier cities is about 5-10 kilometers on average. The starting price of Songguo travel is 2 yuan (20 minutes) + the duration fee is 1 yuan (10 minutes). Taking into account the usage scenarios of the sinking market, shared electricity The price of bicycles is indeed a better profit model than shared bicycles.

Songguo Travel Zhai Guanglong once said that a shared motorcycle with a starting price of two yuan can basically meet the travel needs of county residents. In addition, Songguo Travel has achieved large-scale profitability for two consecutive years, and the future conversion rate will reach at least 30%.

Looking at it this way, Songguo Travel has hit the blind spots of other players in a special way of “surrounding the countryside from the countryside”, and has grown from a big city track full of giants to an “invisible little giant” in the county.

At the same time, this also brings a problem. At the moment when the war is burning from shared bicycles to shared motorcycles, it is only a matter of time before the giants covet a more sinking market. What does Songguo Travel use to fight the giants?

Can Songguo Travel become the “pinduoduo” of shared travel?

The answer to whether Songguo travels against the giants is actually the same as how high the moat of Songguo travels.

First of all, from the internal perspective of the enterprise, the competition of the enterprise is also the competition of talents. It is understood that Songguo Travel was founded by Zhai Guanglong in August 2017. Before founding, this top student who graduated from the University of Science and Technology of China had been on the road to entrepreneurship for a long time.

After graduation, he worked at Procter & Gamble for 5 years. Later, he entered Meituan as the founder of the company. He also served as the CEO of Ant Short Rentals and led the spin-off and the first round of financing with Ganji. Hands.

What’s interesting is that from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the trend of shared bicycles and shared motorcycles suddenly appeared. Zhai Guanglong’s team had tested the “No. 7 motorcycle” business in first- and second-tier cities. Unfortunately, shared motorcycles under the halo of shared bicycles have greater resistance in policies, business models, management, and safety hazards. In the end, the “No. 7 motorcycle” only existed for about half a year and ended in a hasty.

Industry insiders commented that he is a person obsessed with the “sharing economy”.Indeed, Zhai Guanglong has been immersed in the sharing industry for many years, every time he stepped on the wind but failed to make it. This time he brought his unique insights into the sharing economy and started his second business. Whether he will repeat the same mistakes or wash his previous shame is still unknown. .

But from the perspective of strategic decision-making, both shared bicycles and shared motorcycles have the same business model, and they are all assets-heavy. Therefore, both shared motorcycles and shared bicycles adopt the foundry model. The advantage of this is that it can quickly occupy the market through the advantages of scale.

As a shared motorcycle service provider, Songguo Travel seems to have to “do the opposite” again. In an interview, Zhai Guanglong made it clear that “build a self-energy factory”.

In fact, in terms of the future competitiveness of the race track, “self-built factories” are conducive to grasping the pricing power of the consumer side, which is established in principle. From this perspective, Pine Cone Travel can indeed tear a gap between the giants.

The problem is that the current financing disclosed by Songguo Travel is only the angel round investment from Xianfeng Evergreen in 2018, and the specific amount has not been disclosed.

From the perspective of the external environment, compared with shared bicycles, shared bicycle projects have been less popular when seeking financing. Public information shows that most of the shared motorcycle companies established from 2016 to 2018 announced that they received financing from the angel round or the A round. There are almost no mainstream investment institutions and the financing amount is small.

Caijing Wuji believes that although shared motorcycles can be profitable, there are reasons why the capital market is not optimistic.

On the one hand, from the demand side,From the first and second lines to the third and fourth lines and then to the county market, with the weakness of public transportation, the demand for shared motorcycles has gradually increased, and the value of shared motorcycles has begun to gradually manifest, but with the upgrading of public transportation, as well as electric vehicles With the increase in sales volume and the upgrade and iteration of transportation tools, there is a ceiling in demand.

On the other hand, from the perspective of the market,Songguo Travel Zhai Guanglong once said that there is currently no plan to enter the first-tier cities. However, as the development of these giants in the first, second and third tier cities is hindered, they will move to a more sinking market. Compared with the big brothers of Haro, Qingju and Meituan, Songguo is difficult to expand its coverage and market share, and the capital behind it is not at the same level of individual volume.

This also brings thinking about the future of shared motorcycle companies. When the demand becomes smaller and the market shrinks, the company’s price increase for profit purposes will also directly touch the sinking market’s price-sensitive nerves.

It is foreseeable that giant players with rich wealth will surely pass by. Whether the “small and beautiful” pine cones can withstand the pressure may have to be a question mark. Who can run out of the dark horse in the shared motorcycle industry needs to be seen.