Who will defeat Tesla?

315 escaped from the venue, and the Shanghai Auto Show went on a hot search again. Tesla was born a benchmark and a target. In the past few years, cross-border car building has become the outlet. From Evergrande to Xiaomi, this wave of official car building continues. Although Wei Xiaoli shook hands with Lei Jun, the number one contributor to the development of this “plastic circle of friends” is still Musk, because Tesla’s “friendship” has completed various trials and errors. After more than ten years of debut, Tesla has warmed up demand, matured the supply chain, and created a capital myth, proving that barbarians at the door can redefine the industry. Even if a big boss like Buffett is not optimistic, the business logic is still closed. Tesla also provides emotional value. Musk’s aura of innovation and wealth effect have made Tesla a competent imaginary enemy and a qualified background board. It may be a high probability event that Tesla fancy slamming Tesla at a new car launch conference in the future. This drama shows that I am familiar with Apple. Isn’t it the chorus of Porcelain on Android phones back then? But Apple, with a market value of $2.2 trillion, is still the number one global technology company today, not to mention the fate of supply chain vendors such as OFILM. Therefore, the drama of the group mocking Tesla can be retained, but the future of the friendly business depends on whether it can dismantle and reproduce Tesla’s core competitiveness. At this table of cards, traditional car manufacturers have a high probability of exiting early. Volkswagen, Toyota, and GM have long discovered the potential of new energy vehicles, and they also know Musk’s ambitions, but before Tesla’s scale, this is not so much a friend of business, as it is Musk’s toy. Toyota is still stiff-mouthed, but Volkswagen is a little bit embarrassed for two reasons. First, the cheap Model 3 and Model Y have boosted sales. In the first three months of this year, Tesla’s global sales of 184,800 vehicles are already approaching the level of mainstream automakers. Don’t forget that Musk’s Shanghai plant is still expanding, and construction of new plants in Texas and Berlin in the United States has already started, not counting preparations. In the Indian factory in China, Tesla may have passed the million mark in just these two years. For Toyota and Volkswagen, which sells tens of millions of years, this production capacity is still not worth mentioning, but at least it proves that the new car power is no longer a liar and big fool. Second, the EU’s strictest emission standards have come into effect. Since 2009, the EU’s carbon emission standards have been so stringent that the CO2 emissions of most newly registered passenger cars in 2021 must be less than 95g/km. This alone can cost European large car companies 34 billion. With the huge fine of the euro, FCA had to spend $300 million to buy carbon credits from Tesla last year. If the redemption demand generated by the policy is also taken away by Tesla, the consequences will be seamless and disastrous. So Volkswagen is really anxious, but Toyota is relatively calm. Because Toyota insisted on hybrid in the past, and later developed a fuel cell route, although the commercial performance is sluggish, it has its own technical barriers, especially after 2015, Toyota adopted an open strategy to fully promote a new ecosystem alliance. The biggest problem for traditional automakers is the contradiction between goals and means, so it is difficult to stand firmly on the opposite side of Tesla. Part of the reason is that the interest groups in the system are too strong. Take Volkswagen as an example. In 2018, Musk’s friend Herbert Diess was promoted to the CEO of the group, and he began to fully switch to new energy vehicles, with an additional investment of 44 billion euros, requiring 15 million vehicles within 10 years. It caused a strong backlash internally. The call from the supply chain is the loudest. Bosch calls on the public to “maintain the diversity of technical routes.” ZF said that other technologies cannot be demonized just because electric vehicles are developing rapidly. As the new energy plan compressed the traditional diesel vehicle business, Volkswagen laid off 30,000 employees and internal instability. The Volkswagen Board of Supervisors also began to restrict the power of Herbert Diess, appointed a new passenger car CEO, and quietly retreated from a radical standpoint. At the consumption level, traditional automakers are more entangled. Volkswagen has high hopes for the id series of new energy vehicles on the MEB platform. In November last year, the id4 conference was held in China. From the scene, it looks like don’t save money for me; it depends on the parameters, it is the level of Model Y; it depends on the price. , At least 100,000 cheaper, it is said that the expected monthly sales of 5,000-6,000 vehicles are obviously holding back the ambition to beat Tesla. But the actual conversion has two fatal shortcomings. First, the volume of new cars relies on traditional 4S channels. The latter is performance-oriented, and is unwilling to drag down the sales of gasoline vehicles for Amway’s new products. As a result, id4 is prominently displayed, but its presence is extremely low. The second is the lack of spiritual bonuses. The passenger flow to the store is accumulated in the era of gasoline vehicles, and there is even an anti-electricity complex. The early adopters are not going to Tesla, or to Weilai and Xiaopeng. The more brilliant the history of the brand, the harder it is to revolutionize itself. This is really inexplicable. As for BYD, which Mr. Buffett likes, it has production capacity, technology, market, and subsidies, but its brand power and product power are shortcomings, and it’s hard to build Tesla, so it’s better to give it to Xiaomi. The competition between traditional car manufacturers and Tesla may have to wait for the commercialization of fuel cells. At present, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are relatively mature and have many advantages. For example, hydrogenation is faster than charging, zero pollution (no need to dispose of used batteries), high energy conversion rate, low curb weight, and long cruising range. Musk scolded hydrogen fuel vehicles as “fool sells”. The main basis is cost. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles must use proton exchange membranes and platinum catalysts. Platinum is a precious metal. The market price of 1g is more than 300 yuan. The preparation of hydrogen is relatively cheap, but “Hydrogen embrittlement” characteristics make transportation and storage more complicated, and hydrogen refueling stations are not as popular as charging stations. Therefore, although Toyota is full of confidence and insists on paying money for models like Mirai, hydrogen fuel vehicles cannot be commercialized at all in the short term, and European car companies have similar views. In a 40-minute conference call in March 2018, the three CEOs of Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler agreed that hydrogen-fueled vehicles cannot be counted on for at least 10 years. Therefore, apart from the development of pure electric vehicles, they cannot meet the strict environmental protection requirements of the European Union. Emission regulations. This is tantamount to acknowledging in disguise that the development of pure electric vehicles by traditional automakers is a stopgap measure, just to support the anti-kill of fuel cell vehicles. How can this mentality compete with Tesla and other new car forces? Perhaps the real decisive battle will wait until ten years later. Huawei represents a philosophy of deconstruction that is more extreme than Tesla. It is directly providing five product packages to the traditional automotive industry, namely: covering smart cockpits, computing platforms, radars, autonomous driving open platforms and thermal management systems. In the opinion of Su Qing, president of Huawei Smart Driving, the “basis of the car is a computer, and the car is a computer-controlled peripheral device. If a big computer is in trouble, the car is hung up. This is a fundamentally different view.” In other words, the automobile is a standard industrial carrier that cannot be differentiated. Product power and competitiveness are completely defined by software solutions, which is tantamount to denying the possibility of independent evolution of traditional automobiles. No wonder Meituan Wang Xing ridiculed, “Tesla finally met We have reached an opponent with equal skill and flicker ability.” Of course, standing in line with Huawei is still a simple and feasible solution. In addition to BAIC Alpha, it is said that Huawei has also negotiated cooperation with Changan and Guangzhou Automobile. This also brings a paradox. Assuming that two different car brands use Huawei’s solution, are everyone on the same starting line? Will the future differentiation return to the car itself? and so, The future will probably be the contest between Tesla’s Chinese disciples and teachers. Lei Jun may be worrying Musk, not how good Xiaomi is, but serious this time. From rumors to official announcements, the timing of Xiaomi’s car making is very important. Model 3 has transformed new energy vehicles from a trendy early adopter to a mass consumption. It is time to go down the mountain and pick peaches. Lei Jun confirmed that Xiaomi’s main focus is in the range of 100,000 to 300,000 yuan, indicating that Xiaomi is targeting the most valuable segment of China’s auto consumption, of which 200,000 to 250,000 is also the most profitable price segment for traditional car companies. In the past, Chinese new carmakers deliberately avoided this range, not because they were afraid of competition, but the consumers in this range were the most rational and mature, and price wars were useless. It was user perception, brand style and product tone that played a decisive role. As for the price range above 300,000 yuan, luxury brands are basically prohibited. According to McKinsey’s data, more than 40% of car owners in this price range will be loyal to the same brand when redeeming. Xiaomi’s entry at this time is nothing more than seeing Tesla completed market cultivation, plus its own traffic, marketing, and product strength. As long as the experience of Xiaomi mobile phones is replicated, orders can be used to secure the supply chain. Competing with Model 3, Xiaomi has room for differentiation, with the same configuration, I am cheaper than you, and at the same price, I am stacking materials than you, and it is easier to control costs with independent design + OEM. Competing with traditional car brands, Xiaomi has a user mental advantage and is confident that it can divest users of a certain level, because joint venture car companies will not drop themselves, and domestic brand products cannot beat Xiaomi. The only thing Lei Jun has to worry about is capacity. According to the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)” issued by the State Council on November 2 last year, by 2025, China’s new energy vehicles will account for 20% of the total. If it can be realized, it means there will be 7 million. The size of the market around vehicles. Looking at the price range of new energy passenger vehicles in China, 100,000 to 300,000 yuan accounted for 53%. If Xiaomi gets 10% of it (equal to the proportion of Xiaomi mobile phones in the price range above 4,000 yuan), every year There are about 300,000 vehicles in scale, which is quite impressive. According to Xiaomi’s three-year release and five-year mass production plan, and just stepping on the time window of 2025, Lei Jun’s greatest strength is not his strength, but his ability to accurately grasp the timing of his appearance every time. Of course, achieving the goal depends on whether Lei Jun can find a local government willing to provide a financing platform for Xiaomi, a manufacturer with sufficient standards and willingness to cooperate, and a complete new energy vehicle supply chain system. Another important group of new car-building forces is the Wei Xiaoli who are keen to give Lei Jun a “champion”. The user base of these brands is still very weak and lacks influence on mass consumption. Even with policy support, they cannot digest such a huge market. Therefore, instead of letting Tesla dominate, it is better to support Xiaomi to rush into battle. If the basic market of new energy vehicles is They are the beneficiaries when they become bigger, and if Xiaomi fails, they will just go to take over again. In short, this wave is not a loss. In this group, Weilai’s strategy is relatively clear. The specific performance is to focus on the high-end products, stick to the power exchange model, use members as services, use experience to consolidate stickiness, withstand brand tonality, and package itself as the banner of China’s high-end manufacturing. The shortcoming of this model is loss. Since its establishment in 2014, Weilai has lost a total of 30 billion yuan. The advantage is that once the market matures, revenue and profit will be proportional. Weilai’s future depends on whether the cash flow can support it until then. Xiaopeng’s feeling is rather dissociated, perhaps because the “plagiarism” lawsuit has overdrawn attention. Although the result is favorable, the public perception is not good. The biggest problem with Xiaopeng is that neither the brand nor the product is impressively distinctive. label. Ideal is very “stubborn.” After the Shanghai Auto Show incident, Li Xiang called for ADAS vehicles to be equipped with a driving recorder as standard to clarify accident responsibility. This is a fair theory, but ideals’ efforts to promote extended-range electric vehicles basically failed. . According to Li Xiang, “Pure electric vehicles have to pay a national subsidy of 20,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan, and only 8,000 yuan subsidies for the increase of the pure electric mileage of more than 70% in the urban area. This account is easy to calculate.” Li Xiang’s original intention was to transfer car subsidies from a technical route to a scenario perspective. This may be more in line with the actual use of Chinese cars, but from the perspective of macro policy orientation, it is too conservative. If ideals still bet on hybrid extended-range technology, it is likely to compress the future market space and leave it behind in the competition. Who will defeat Tesla, the market has its own answer, but one thing is certain. Car owners’ rights protection, supervision and law enforcement, and media supervision can’t be too strict, but friends and businessmen who want to defeat Tesla can only talk about the product.