(Original title: Suddenly! Biden launched heavy sanctions, authorizing attacks on any area of the Russian economy! Iraq is attacked again, the Middle East is raging, and the oil is still going to rise?)
Are you really worried that the upcoming climate summit will be yellow?
According to CNN, US President Biden will organize a global climate summit from April 22 to 23. The United States also deliberately mentioned inviting Russia and China to participate. Recently, some media reported that Biden proposed the possibility of face-to-face talks between the United States and Russia. However, at this critical juncture, the United States suddenly launched sanctions and pressure, just as it did with the negotiations with China.
On the evening of April 15, Beijing time, according to the White House website, Biden will ban Bank of America from participating in the primary market of Russian sovereign debt denominated in rubles from June 14. Restricting Russia’s sovereign debt is a direct response to Russia’s intervention in the 2020 U.S. election. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 32 entities and individuals who implemented the instructions of the Russian government in an attempt to influence the 2020 U.S. presidential election and other acts of spreading rumors and interference.
On the other hand, the Middle East, which is also an oil-producing region, has also been extremely uneven recently. The Houthi armed forces and Saudi Arabia seem to have a sense of immortality. A spokesman for the organization said on the 15th that the use of drones and 11 missiles in Jizan attacked Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities. The missile and drone attack caused a fire at a Saudi Aramco facility. Accidents continued in Iraq. On the evening of April 14, local time, another explosion occurred at the international airport in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, and the US consulate near the area sounded an alarm. On the 15th, Baghdad was attacked by a bomb again, causing more than a dozen casualties.
Oil prices fly again?
“Hot Hand” Biden
The United States suddenly increased sanctions against Russia.
According to news from the White House website on Thursday night, President Biden signed a new executive order of sanctions to show that the government is determined to deal with and contain all harmful activities in Russia. This executive order sends a signal that if Russia continues or escalates its destabilizing international operations, the United States will impose costs on Russia in a way that has strategic and economic influence. This especially includes undermining efforts to hold free and fair democratic elections and democratic institutions in the United States and its allies and partner countries; participating in and targeting malicious cyber activities against the United States and its allies and partners; facilitating and using transnational corruption to influence foreign governments; engaging in targeting Extraterritorial activities of dissidents or journalists; undermining the security of countries and regions that are vital to the national security of the United States; violation of recognized principles of international law, including states that respect territorial integrity.
In these actions, President Joe Biden authorized the U.S. government to impose sanctions on any sector of the Russian economy and to restrict Russia’s ability to issue sovereign debt in order to punish Moscow for interfering in the 2020 U.S. election.
Biden will ban Bank of America from participating in the primary market of Russian sovereign debt denominated in rubles from June 14. Restricting Russia’s sovereign debt is a direct response to Russia’s intervention in the 2020 U.S. election. Biden will issue an executive order authorizing the US government to crack down on any area of the Russian economy. Withdrawing US buyers from the primary market for ruble-denominated Russian sovereign debt may increase Russia’s borrowing costs. The US move may also cause capital to flee Russia, leading to a devaluation of the Russian currency. The new executive order authorizes the United States to increase restrictions on Russian sovereign debt when necessary.
The United States announced sanctions on six Russian companies that have supported cyber attacks on U.S. federal agencies and companies. The United States will expel 10 Russian intelligence officials. Since 2019, Bank of America has been banned from entering the main market for non-ruble sovereign bonds. The U.S. Treasury Department also blacklisted 32 entities and individuals to punish Russia for influencing the 2020 U.S. presidential election and other “disinformation and interference behaviors.” At the same time, the United States has also cooperated with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada, and the Treasury Department has sanctioned eight people related to Russia’s continued occupation and suppression of Crimea.
On April 14, local time, according to RIA Novosti news, US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan was invited to meet with Russian Presidential Assistant Yuri Ushakov. Ushakov stated that if the United States imposes a new round of sanctions on Russia when President Biden intends to improve relations with Russia, Russia will respond in the strongest way. On the 15th, after the White House issued a sanctions order, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that Russia’s response to US sanctions is inevitable. The sanctions imposed by the United States are contrary to the interests of our two countries.
On April 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin was invited to have a telephone conversation with US President Biden. During the call, Biden expressed interest in normalizing bilateral affairs and was willing to establish a stable and predictable interaction mechanism with Russia. At the same time, Biden proposed to consider the possibility of holding a meeting between the two heads of state in the near future. However, the sudden picking of the matter by the United States may make the prospects of the US-Russian talks dim.
War continues in the Middle East
Russia, the United States, and the Middle East are always inseparable from this triangular relationship, even if the United States is withdrawing troops from Afghanistan recently. The most unstable corner of this triangle is the Middle East. Recently, wars in the Middle East have continued, and the two most prominent places are: Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
The former provoked a Houthi who could not get rid of it. According to Reuters, the Yemeni Houthi militants said on the 15th that they used drones and missiles to attack multiple targets in the southern Saudi city of Jizan. Among them, a facility of Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, caught fire. At the same time, the organization also launched an attack on the Saudi “Patriot” anti-missile system. The Saudi Press Agency reported that Saudi Arabia intercepted 4 drones and 5 missiles that attacked Jizan.
Since this year, the Houthis have never stopped their attacks on Saudi Arabia, and the source is still the original Yemeni government. On January 22, 2015, after the Houthi armed forces occupied the presidential palace, official residences and important military facilities, President Abdul Rab Mansour Hadi and his cabinet resigned. It was announced on February 6 that the “Presidential Committee” and “National Transitional Committee” were established to replace the Yemeni president and parliament to govern the country. The United Nations said it would not recognize it. On November 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia issued a reward for the arrest of 40 leaders of the Houthi armed group in Yemen, with a total bonus of up to 440 million U.S. dollars. It has always been believed that Iran is behind the Houthi, and Saudi Arabia is behind the original government of Yemen. This is also the main reason why Houthi has always attacked Saudi Arabia.
In addition to the Houthis’s constant attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iraq is also very uneasy. After Biden came to power, Iraq has never stopped, and news of bomb attacks have been reported continuously. On the evening of April 14, local time, an explosion occurred at the international airport in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, and the US consulate near the area sounded an alarm. The Kurdish Autonomous Government’s counter-terrorism department stated that the explosion was caused by at least one rocket attack. There are US troops stationed in the military zone of Erbil Airport, and there is no specific information on casualties and property damage.
On April 15, Iraqi police and medical sources said that 4 people were killed and 17 others were injured in a car bomb attack in the Sada city area of Baghdad on Thursday. Police said the car was parked in a busy second-hand equipment market in a predominantly Shia Muslim area. The Iraqi military statement stated that the explosion targeted the eastern market in Baghdad, killing a civilian, wounding 12 people, and opening fire and destroying several cars.
Oil prices still fly?
On the evening of April 14th, international oil prices soared suddenly, and Bulk Oil finally closed up by more than 4%. As the political situation of oil-producing countries changes, does it mean that oil prices are still flying?
Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) analysts said in a report that supply constraints and economic recovery will provide oil with an opportunity to break through the near-term range. Goldman Sachs analysts said: “Due to the recent rebound in demand and supply laws, we are optimistic about the forecast of Brent oil prices in the third quarter of 2021 at 80 US dollars per barrel.”
As the economy promotes decarbonization and the penetration rate of electric vehicles continues to increase, Goldman Sachs has also advanced the estimated peak of global oil transportation demand to 2026 by one year. Even so, he did not predict the peak oil demand in the next ten years due to the growth of petrochemicals and aviation fuel markets, although it is expected that the overall oil demand after 2025 will be “mainly due to electrification to reach a downturn.”
In fact, apart from economic factors, political factors are also very important. It can be expected that as the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, Russia’s development space will continue to be squeezed, and there will be great variables in the supply of oil. Moreover, from the current technology point of view, although electric vehicles are popular, they also need electricity, and whether it is lithium batteries or fuel cells, it is largely converted from petrochemical energy. From this perspective, in the short term, the price of crude oil may have a tendency to rise easily but not fall.
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