Friday, April 23
【Close News】
1, Thursday, Gold and silver enter the downtrend channel , Rebounded slightly in late trading. Spot gold hit a daily low of $1,777 during the U.S. market, and finally closed at $1,783.24 per ounce, down 0.56%; spot silver fell below the $26 mark during the day, and finally closed at $26.10 per ounce, down 1.52%.
2. The U.S. dollar index fluctuates and rises , It broke through the 91 mark in the day, and finally closed up 0.21% to 91.3. On Thursday, the U.S. five-year inflation-protected Treasury bond (TIPS) yield fell to a record low.
3. International oil prices rebounded slightly , As of the close, WTI crude oil futures closed up 0.96% to 61.64 US dollars per barrel; spot silver closed up 0.80% to 65.59 US dollars per barrel. CME Group (CME) raised the maintenance margin requirement for the June WTI crude oil contract from US$5,100 per contract to US$5,300 per contract, an increase of 3.9%.
4. The cryptocurrency market suffered a huge shock . Ethereum once surpassed 10% overnight and hit a record high of US$2,646. However, the risk sentiment in the U.S. market suddenly changed and all cryptocurrencies plunged. Bitcoin once fell below US$51,000 per coin, setting a new low of nearly a month; Ethereum also once exceeded the day. The high retracement exceeded $300.
5. U.S. stocks , Reported that US President Biden intends to propose a capital gains tax of up to 43.4% on the wealthy. US stocks fell sharply during intraday trading. The three major stock indexes fell more than 1%. As of the close, the three major indexes closed down across the board. Among them, the Nasdaq fell 0.94%, the S&P 500 fell 0.92%, and the Dow fell 0.94%.
6. European stocks continued the previous day’s gains , The whole line received red. Among them, the German DAX index closed up 0.92% to 15,335.60 points.
7. Hong Kong stocks , Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed up 0.47% yesterday to 28755.34 points.
8. A shares continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Thursday , The three major stock indexes collectively opened higher in the early trading. After the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated downward. The ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index performed relatively strongly. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%. On the disk, sectors such as medical beauty, digital currency, consumer electronics, semiconductors, steel, food and beverage, and coal ranked among the top gainers, while sectors such as banking, tourism, and wine brewing were among the top decliners.
【International News】
1. According to CME “Federal Reserve Observation”: The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in April is 95.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 0.25%-0.50% range is 4.4%. The probability of maintaining interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range in June is 87.9%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 11.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.
2. Biden is reported to be planning to levy a capital gains tax of up to 43.4% on the wealthy
According to people familiar with the matter, Biden plans to raise the capital gains tax rate for the wealthy by nearly double to 39.6% , Together with the existing investment income surcharge, means that the federal capital gains tax rate for investors will reach 43.4%. According to sources, the capital gains tax rate for people with an annual income of not less than US$1 million will be raised to 39.6%, far exceeding the current basic tax rate of 20%. Coupled with the 3.8% investment income tax rate to fund Obamacare, the capital gains tax level is higher than the highest salary tax rate. Biden is expected to release the proposal next week, and part of the income from the tax increase will be used for social expenditures in the “American Family Plan.”
3. Influenced by U.S. President Biden’s plan to nearly double the capital gains tax on the wealthy, Bitcoin fell by 8% at one point, approaching a one-month low . U.S. investors who invest in crypto assets (these assets have risen by about 80% since December last year), if they sell cryptocurrencies after holding them for more than a year, they already face the risk of capital gains tax. The Internal Revenue Service has also increased its taxation on the sale of encrypted assets.
4. In response to U.S. President Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure package, senior Republicans in the Senate on Thursday proposed a total of 568 billion U.S. dollars of opponents. Focus on more traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges , And did not include the increase in taxes on companies sought by the Democratic Party.
5. The White House issued an international climate financing plan, which is the first such plan of the US government. Focus on international climate finance . The plan mentioned that Biden plans to triple the scale of adaptive financing by 2024. And considering that the scale of climate financing for developing countries will be doubled by 2024. In addition, the United States will end international investment in the field of high-carbon energy. Biden will help financial companies make decisions when they consider climate factors.
6. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States reached 547,000 from the week of April 17th, continuing to hit the lowest level since the week of March 14th last year. The analysis said that with the advancement of the goal of vaccinating an average of 3 million people in the United States every day, the growth of the job market should further accelerate.
7. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators of the American Advisory Council: Consumer confidence has risen to the highest level since the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions and short-term prospects has improved significantly, indicating that economic growth may further strengthen in the coming months. The renewed optimism of consumers has boosted their willingness to buy houses, cars and some high-priced goods. However, the rise in short-term inflation concerns is likely to be due to rising oil prices and may curb consumer willingness in the coming months.
8, The latest interest rate decision of the European Central Bank maintains the three key interest rates, the speed of bond purchases remains unchanged, and does not update economic forecasts. However, the European Central Bank confirmed that it will significantly accelerate the purchase of PEPP in this quarter. European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated the European Central Bank’s very loose monetary policy stance that negative interest rates are an effective tool to provide stimulus. At the same time, he pointed out that the issue of reducing purchases of PEPP has not been discussed and it is too early to discuss reducing debt purchases.
9. Market news: According to a draft agenda, OPEC+ will stick to its originally announced plan to hold a full ministerial meeting and a joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) meeting on April 28. The specific time is to be determined.
10. CME Group (CME) raised the maintenance margin requirement for the June WTI crude oil contract from US$5,100 per contract to US$5,300 per contract, an increase of 3.9%.
11. EIA natural gas report: As of the week of April 16, the total US natural gas inventory was 1,883 billion cubic feet, an increase of 38 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 251 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12 billion. Cubic feet, an increase of 0.6%.
12. The BDI index, known as the vane of commodities, has continued to soar recently, approaching a new high since 2010 . Many cyclical industry traders said that due to factors such as rising upstream raw material prices and better downstream demand expectations, inventory levels have been generally low since the beginning of this year, and turnover has accelerated. The cyclical characteristics of the market’s initiative to replenish inventory are obvious. The prices of bulk commodities continue to be strong, and the evolution of the future inventory cycle is an important driving factor affecting the trend of commodities.
【Industry Data】
1. Energy Bureau: Printing and distributing the “Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2021” . The main expected goal in 2021 is to reduce the proportion of coal consumption to below 56%; add about 200 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to replace electricity, and the proportion of electricity to final energy consumption will reach about 28%; energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 3% , The allocation of energy resources is more reasonable, and the utilization efficiency is greatly improved; the utilization rate of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation has maintained a high level, and the average utilization hours of cross-regional transmission channels have increased to about 4,100 hours.
2. IDC: In 2020, the global IaaS market reached 67.19 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. AWS, Microsoft, Alibaba, Google, and IBM are among the top five in the market, together occupying 77.1% of the market share. In 2020, the overall global public cloud service market will reach US$312.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%; the overall market size of China’s public cloud services will reach US$19.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.7%, the highest growth rate in the world. It is estimated that by 2024, the global share of China’s public cloud service market will increase from 6.5% in 2020 to over 10.5%.
3. Information and Communication Institute: In the first quarter, my country’s Internet investment and financing remained high overall, with a slight decrease from the previous quarter. The number of cases decreased by 2% from the previous month and increased by 52.5% from the same period last year; the total amount decreased by 8.9% from the previous month and rose by over 170% year-on-year.
4. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In March, software business revenue increased by 33.0%. In the first quarter, my country’s software industry completed a software business revenue of 19903 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from January to February; the industry realized a total profit of 237.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, an increase of 2.9 Percentage points.
5. Online car-hailing supervision information interaction platform: As of March 31, a total of 227 online car-hailing platform companies across the country have obtained online car-hailing platform operating licenses, and a total of 3.364 million online car-hailing driver licenses and 1.255 million vehicle transportation certificates have been issued across the country. In March, all online car-hailing platform companies registered a total of 100,000 newly registered compliant drivers and 61,000 newly registered compliant vehicles.
6. The Legal Work Committee revealed that the main content of the draft futures law includes six points: The system stipulates the futures trading, settlement and delivery systems; stipulates the basic systems for other derivatives transactions; establishes the protection system for the rights and interests of futures traders; regulates the operation of futures business institutions, futures trading venues, futures clearing institutions and futures service institutions; clarifies the supervision of the futures market management.
7. According to real-time statistics from Worldometers, as of 07:20 on April 23, Beijing time, The number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus worldwide exceeded 145.29 million, reaching 145,293,269, and the number of deaths exceeded 3.08 million, reaching 3083,658. . Among them, the number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in the United States exceeded 32.66 million, reaching 32,665,038, and the number of deaths exceeded 584,000, reaching 584,176.
[Finance data and events of focus today]
①07:30 Japan’s core CPI annual rate in March
②14:00 UK retail sales monthly rate after March seasonal adjustment
③15:15 French manufacturing PMI initial value in April
④15:30 German manufacturing PMI initial value in April
⑤16:00 Euro zone manufacturing PMI initial value in April
⑥16:30 PMI for manufacturing and service industries in the UK in April
⑦21:45 US April Markit manufacturing PMI initial value
⑧21:45 US April Markit service industry PMI initial value
⑨22:00 The annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in March
⑩The total number of oil rigs from the United States at 01:00 the next day to the week of April 23
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