“Crazy” Motorcycles 丨 The midfield melee, the car and sea tactics are difficult to determine

In the black humorous comedy movie “Crazy Racing”, after losing the gold medal inexplicably, the hapless professional cyclist Geng Hao took his master who was pissed out of cerebral thrombosis into a small black room and plunged into a bleak life. Later, in order to let the deceased master leave the world with dignity, Geng Hao became a thief by mistake, eventually strayed into the racing track and became the craziest racer, and accidentally won the championship trophy that originally belonged to him. There are 5 stories and 6 groups of characters in the film. Although each group of characters has different personalities and ways of doing things, they all have the same direction: in order to achieve the goal, they all used their best and staged a chaotic good show. In the field of two-wheeled electric vehicles in China, a melee is also staged, and players from all walks of life compete wildly. In the past ten years, Yadi (01585.HK), Emma (603529.SH) and Xinri (603787.SH) three “racing drivers” have changed their strengths. The track fell off the chain halfway. With the passage of time, Yadea has now grown into a leader in the field of two-wheeled electric vehicles. Emma has followed closely. Xinri has its own abacus, while the Mavericks (NIU) will be the “Tesla” of two-wheeled electric vehicles. New forces on the two-wheeled tram are also about to move. Behind this battle of the heroes is a midfield battle with a scale of hundreds of billions. In the future, who can quell the war by himself and become the “bicycle” of the two-wheeled electric car industry, leaving a lot of suspense in the market. In “Crazy Racing”, a policeman sat in a police car and aimed a gun at Geng Hao and said: Your two wheels may not run past our four wheels. But in the capital market, two wheels may not be better than four wheels, or even faster than four wheels! From the beginning of 2020 to the present (June 23), the stock prices of Yadea, Mavericks, Xinri and Emma, ​​which have just been listed, have soared 7 times, 2.8 times, 1.2 times and 1.3 times respectively. “Car-Sea Tactics” Create Crazy Sales In fact, before 2014, the domestic two-wheeled electric vehicle market was not favored by capital. The reason is simple. Although the market is growing fast, there are crowds of disruptors, and the strengths are uneven. No one can smile and talk about profits in the face of cruel price wars. Since 2014, the market for two-wheeled electric vehicles has begun to change, from a battle of hundreds of groups to a melee of several parties, and the industry has gradually entered a mature stage. At that time, the market gradually became saturated, and the polarization of participants began to intensify. Brands with good car quality, guaranteed batteries, good performance, and affordable prices were favored by consumers, and brands with insufficient competitiveness fell one after another. The market growth rate is declining, and the industry is mixed. How should companies face growth difficulties? To survive, and to live well, there is an urgent need for companies to have strong management, stable cash flow, and skillful technology. As a result, 2014 became a watershed in the domestic two-wheeled electric vehicle industry. In 2014, Li Yinan, a genius young man who used to be Huawei’s vice president, “does not follow the routine” and established Mavericks that year, launching an impact on traditional electric brands with new technologies and new concepts. At the same time, Yadea and Emma upgraded their business battles, focusing on single product performance; in 2015, Yadea embarked on a “high-end strategy”, and after launching in 2016, it will be fully engaged in R&D, production and sales. Emma was quickly surpassed by Yadea due to internal conflicts and blocked listings. Since 2018, it has gradually exerted its efforts to increase its marketing and sales terminals and maintain its leading position in the industry. In recent years, Xinri has maintained its position in the industry with the help of smart concepts and emerging consumption scenarios such as food delivery. These top companies can stand out in the industry’s hundred-team battle, and they all have the same characteristics. When the industry is in a downturn, they can expand their brand influence through technology, channels and other fields, and eat the market share of the companies that withdraw from the market. The listing is a competitive weapon for these companies, and the expansion of production capacity and the laying of sales networks have directly become the strongholds of small and medium-sized enterprises. In April 2019, the official implementation of the new national standard for two-wheeled electric vehicles, coupled with the acceleration of the earlier industry standards for lithium-ion electric vehicles, has two major benefits for leading companies: 1. The industry threshold has increased, and small and medium-sized enterprises with insufficient technical strength and cash flow are obviously unable to compete head-on with leading companies, leading to their collapse and increasing industry concentration; 2. The market demand for car replacement has been concentrated, and the superimposed epidemic situation has promoted the wave of car purchases, which is conducive to the deepening of the market penetration of leading companies. After dying Xiaoxiami, the leading companies finally waited for the carnival years to win by quantity and use “car and sea tactics” to carve up the world across the country! Therefore, it can be seen that in recent years, the “arsenal” (new production capacity) of several leading companies has continued to expand, and new production bases are also in full swing. At the same time, sales outlets act as “fortresses”, and Yadi and Emma have expanded their township layouts to reach rural consumer groups more widely. Among them, Yadi is the most conspicuous. At the end of 2020, the company has 2,955 distributors, an increase of 1,130 from 2017, which has accelerated the channel sinking in the country’s township regions. Emma has also been actively optimizing its distribution network in recent years, sinking to townships in populous provinces such as Henan and Sichuan to meet Yadi. At the same time, Emma has added new production lines every year, and the annual new production capacity will be close to 3 million from 2018 to 2020, and the factory will be fully engaged in production. Taiwan Bell’s late-comer advantages should not be underestimated. It has 9 production bases with an annual production capacity of more than 10 million vehicles. The previous goal was to sprint sales of 5 million vehicles in 2020, and its production capacity has greatly exceeded its terminal sales. Facts have proved that the “che-hai tactic” is very effective in the two-wheeled electric vehicle market, and the battle situation continues to lean towards the leading enterprises. As you can see in the above picture, in 2019, when the new national standard was launched, the sales of Yadi, Emma and Xinri increased rapidly; sales in 2020 will be like riding on a rocket, and the sales of the three will reach 10.8 million, 7.96 million and respectively. 2.55 million vehicles. Sales of the “exquisite” Mavericks have also grown steadily, reaching 600,000 vehicles in 2020. In 2020, the cumulative sales of Yadi, Emma and Xinri accounted for just over 50% of the national total, and this value was 31.7% in 2017. The rate of increase in market concentration is obvious. The great mountains and rivers of two-wheel electric vehicles still have “mines” to be dug, and the leading companies obviously will not regress because of this. Therefore, they have formulated a strategic policy of expanding ambitions: in 2021, the sales of Yadi, Emma, ​​Tailing and Mavericks The targets are 16 million vehicles, 16-18 million vehicles, and 10 million vehicles, respectively, a substantial increase of 48%, 101%-126%, 200% (estimated) and 50%-83% compared to 2020. Time will witness naked swimmers In the era of mobile phone melee 10 years ago, mobile phones of brands such as Gionee, LeTV, and Nokia fell due to various reasons such as financial chain crisis, debt crisis, and technological backwardness, while brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and OPPO took advantage of technological advantages, channel advantages, cost performance, and individuality. Tactics such as change have taken a place in the era of smartphones. At present, there are about 10 large-scale enterprises in the two-wheel electric vehicle market in my country. The management of Xinri has stated that the market will only allow 3-5 enterprises to exist in the future. In a rapidly changing market, being able to stay and live well is a test of the inherent strength and wisdom of industry participants. At present, two factors are restricting the survival and development of two-wheeled electric vehicle head enterprises. 1. The price war has caused the industry’s internal volume, and the industry needs new strategic traction. Although the industry concentration has increased in recent years, the price war is still not over. In order to replenish sales, all participants have exchanged prices for volume and invested heavily in marketing, resulting in extremely low profits for a single vehicle in the entire industry. In 2020, the price of Yadi and Emma bicycle flats will be 1335 yuan/unit and 1597 yuan/unit respectively, and the net profit of a single bike will be as low as 88.6 yuan/unit and 76.6 yuan/unit respectively. Selling more than 1,000 yuan of products, the net profit obtained is only a few dozen yuan, which shows how fierce the price war is. During the year, the net profit margins of the two were only 4.9% and 4.6% respectively. For this reason, Dong Jinggui, the founder of Yadi, believes that “price wars have no future. Yadi needs new strategic traction. The core is technology investment and high-end brand.” Yadi adjusted the development vane and launched a “higher-end strategy”. A real expedition, with all efforts in battery, raw materials, product development, “new species” and so on. Its graphene battery can run 90-120 kilometers; the TTFAR7-level extended range system’s Guanneng series came out last year; it launched super core technologies such as the super fast charging ecosystem and smart wireless charging; it was also jointly established with the Great Yangtze River Group in May this year. Love to change”, aiming at the battery swap market of two-wheeled electric vehicles… In addition to Yadi, Emma, ​​Xinri, Mavericks and other companies have also shown their “trump cards” in order to find their own position in the fierce market environment and find differentiated competitiveness to break through the bottleneck of industry development. 2. The wolf is coming. There are so many beautiful people, because countless heroes competed. The two-wheel electric vehicle market is huge, and the rise of carbon neutrality, food delivery, express delivery, and shared travel has given the industry a dose of stimulant, which has caused capital disruption and re-adjusted the supply and demand relationship of two-wheel electric vehicles. Among them, the most worthy of two-wheeled electric vehicles is the new force of two-wheeled car building-Ha Jianluo = 刂 Liang Nang At the end of March, there are 1,400 franchise stores in 100 cities in Hajang Zhai that exclusively sell Haren Niao> Xun’s Chen Sheng Kegading Road Huanpo Nuo Ye Jun Rake 2,000 “, and opened a number of new stores on platforms such as JD.com, Taobao and Pinduoduo, and completed the construction of online and offline channels. From the number of franchise stores and stores Look, Ha Jin, Zhai Quanwu I Xian Yan Xing Pirates τ Xuan Nuo Shrimp Bucket Han Wei buys 狻 In addition, travel platforms such as Meituan, Didi Qingju, and Songguo Travel also flooded the track. For a large number of C-end consumers, the popularity of shared motorcycles will reduce their willingness to buy electric vehicle products, which in turn will affect the passenger flow of two-wheeled electric vehicle dealerships. Capital tycoons such as Xiaomi’s ecological chain enterprise No. 9 electric car and CATL (300750.SZ) have also entered the two-wheeled electric car market. The entry of new players has also brought new gameplay to the two-wheeled electric vehicle market. In the field of lithium batteries, it is the strategic mainstream for new players. At the same time, these players are constantly exploring new areas such as battery replacement, fast charging, and intelligence.For example, in the field of battery replacement, the easy-motor e-replacement, the easy-riding replacement, and the change of Haozheng swollen and swollen mouth ⑷ invades the scorpion badly. Therefore, traditional two-wheeled electric vehicle companies are facing a new wave of competition. The newcomers in the industry have their own magical powers, and they are often backed by capital and resource advantages. Traditional manufacturers such as Yadi and Emma who pursue sales with “car-sea tactics” must accept the frontal challenges of the new forces. How should they build their own copper walls and iron walls? How can they find a more spacious way out of barbaric growth? It is worth investigating further. Author: Yuanyuan Author|Remote Edit | lala