US Secretary of State Antony’s unannounced trip to Afghanistan on April 15 can be seen as the first step in implementing the plan that President Joe Biden has just announced, withdrawing all US forces in Afghanistan on schedule. has set out.
The American war in Afghanistan since 2001 has been one of the main issues to be resolved in the foreign policy of many American presidents. The administration of former President Donald Trump made its mark on this issue by agreeing with the Taliban to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan on May 1, 2021, in the hope of promoting talks. peace negotiations between the Afghan Government and the Taliban.
US President Joe Biden has followed this policy with the announcement that Washington will begin on time the final phase of the withdrawal process and will be completed by 9/11/2021, 20 years after the terrorist attack. horrifying in America, sparking war is arguably the longest in American history.
US soldiers are deployed in Dwyer, Helmand province, Afghanistan. Photo: AFP / VNA
The official announcement by US President Joe Biden on the route to withdraw troops from Afghanistan can be seen as one of the indicators of Wahisngton’s strong determination to reduce its military presence in Afghanistan. The US has also agreed with allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on this issue. The foreign ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense 30 NATO member countries agreed to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan according to the roadmap announced by the US, and the foreign ministers of the United States, UK, France and Germany met in Brussels (Belgium). on the issue of Afghanistan after the US announcement, showing that US allies in Europe support and are willing to cooperate in the plan to withdraw troops from the South Asian nation.
Analysts say that the US’s implementation of the withdrawal plan under the agreement with the Taliban could have many positive effects. On the one hand, the withdrawal of US troops will motivate the Taliban to be more serious in fulfilling its commitments. So far, the Taliban show no signs of ending violence in Afghanistan, and in March rejected Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s proposal to hold elections this year and warned of further action. against foreign troops if foreign forces do not withdraw from the country by the 1/5 deadline. This shows that as long as the US military is still present in Afghanistan, the peace process will have little chance of accelerating. The withdrawal of US troops is expected to break the deadlock and force the Taliban to fulfill its commitments.
Former US military officials also argue that postponing the withdrawal risks the Taliban continuing to carry out attacks on US and coalition forces, possibly escalating violence and conflict in Afghanistan. At that time, the US will be more and more “bogged down” in this war.
In addition, for the US, the decision to withdraw will basically bring many benefits, both economically, politically and diplomatically. Economically, the US will save a significant amount of budget to protect security in Afghanistan. The US currently spends about $ 4 billion a year to maintain the Afghan National Security Force against the remnants of al-Qaeda remnants in the country. Preliminaryly, the US has spent $ 1 trillion on Afghanistan since its first military involvement in the country following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America.
Politically, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will show the American people that Mr. Biden has upheld his pledge during the 2020 campaign. The war in Afghanistan has left more than 2,400 US servicemen dead, more 20,700 people were injured and cost the country a huge budget estimated at $ 2 trillion, but these losses have not yet led Afghanistan to the path of political stability. Therefore, the withdrawal will minimize the losses to the US military in Afghanistan.
Experts say that if he acts with a foresight, President Biden could use the end of the war in Afghanistan as an opportunity to begin the process of “restructuring” the way the two main parties in the US next. compete with each other on national security and defense issues. It would be harder for Republicans to oppose Mr. Biden’s withdrawal strategy if it is seen as something that bears the mark of former President Trump – who remains the most powerful figure in the Republican party.
In terms of security, the Biden administration’s move will contribute to enhancing the role of the Afghan government in maintaining security in the country. In fact, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has noted that the country’s armed forces are “fully capable” of defending Afghanistan.
However, peace in Afghanistan will face significant challenges. Even within the Biden administration, many opinions are still concerned about security risks for Afghanistan if the US reduces its military presence there. In particular, Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) William Burns noted that America’s ability to gather intelligence and act against threats will decline as US troops leave Afghanistan. Burns’ assessment is based on the long-standing presence of elements from terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda or self-proclaimed “Islamic State” (IS) in Afghanistan.
The CIA Director’s warning reflects the concern of some experts that the US withdrawal of all its troops from Afghanistan risks creating a void allowing terrorist organizations, especially al-Qaeda, to come back again. Since the US launched its war on the Taliban 20 years ago, although it has weakened in many ways, it will still pose significant security challenges for Afghanistan.
The Taliban agreeing to sever ties with terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda, as well as its commitment to prevent al-Qaeda from operating in Afghanistan, is a prerequisite to a peace deal. with the United States in 2020. However, the fact that al-Qaeda has maintained a complicated relationship with the Taliban has raised doubts about whether the Taliban could completely end its relationship with this notorious terrorist organization. , as well as the real Taliban’s intentions of these commitments.
Over the past 20 years, the United States has invested significantly in counterterrorism and intelligence gathering capabilities in Afghanistan. However, US officials concede that once the military has withdrawn, gathering intelligence will be much more difficult. Stemming from that fact, an erroneous US miscalculation of when to withdraw would create an opportunity for al-Qaeda to rise again in Afghanistan, to re-establish bases, from which to launch terrorist attacks. Future.
After the US withdrawal, to continue assisting Afghanistan in maintaining security, the long-term solution for the US is to find a way that allows all political actors to act together with Afghanistan. The United Nations (UN) has also announced it will maintain its political and humanitarian mission in Afghanistan, even after the US and NATO withdraw their troops from the country.
In fact, the peace process in Afghanistan is now a priority promoted by the international community, as increased violence in this conflict-plunged country is killing many civilians and inflicting love. a serious humanitarian and security crisis. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA), as many as 8,820 civilians perished from conflict in Afghanistan in 2020. Afghanistan is also facing a severe humanitarian crisis, with more than 16.9 million people, more than a third of the population, are facing urgent food insecurity.
In that context, many optimistic opinions that the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan could open a narrow gap towards a new prospect of peace-building in this South Asian country in the near future. However, the opportunity to slip through the “narrow gap” to peace in Afghanistan is still very fragile because there are many factors that dominate, including the building of trust between the parties in Afghanistan as well as the problem. conflicts of interest of related countries in the region.
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