“Investment is more important to find companies that cross the bulls and bears.”
“We must play down the concept of bull and bear markets, and grasp structural trends and opportunities.”
On the evening of April 15th, the “Golden Bull is Coming” live broadcast of the China Securities Journal frequently appeared. Dan Bin, Chairman of Shenzhen Orient Harbor and Jinniu Private Equity Investment Manager, Chief Strategist of China International Capital Corporation (47.770, -0.71, -1.46%) , Wang Hanfeng, Managing Director, gave a wonderful sharing on recent market conditions, macro policies and investment strategies.
The two guests said that the current market adjustment may not be in place, and market sentiment may cool down further. Investors should play down the concept of a bull market and a bear market, and focus on grasping structural opportunities. They can mainly focus on industries such as consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education.
Market adjustment is not yet in place
Wang Hanfeng said that the current market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, which is also in line with the characteristics of the market adjustment to a certain stage. On the whole, the market has slowly shown that the adjustment may be entering the second half of the process, but the valuation adjustment is not sufficient. , Market sentiment may further cool down. “In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to various indicators, and pay attention to whether it will reach a phased bottom within the next one or two months.”
But Bin said that short-term market trends are difficult to judge, and this adjustment may continue until the third quarter or the end of the year. By the third quarter or the end of the year, the valuation restoration should have come to an end, and the valuation of listed companies will be more attractive.
Wang Hanfeng believes that current investors pay too much attention to the performance of the market’s broad-based index and ignore the structural trend of the market. It is recommended that investors play down the concept of bull and bear markets and focus on structural opportunities. “The index can be used for reference, but don’t pay too much attention to it. What needs to be paid attention to is the clear trends in the next five to ten years and the leading companies that can represent the trends.”
Optimistic about five types of industries
In the recent days, Dabaima has been falling in succession. In Dan Bin’s view, the main reason is the high valuation of some companies. As the annual report continues to disclose, some companies’ profits did not increase significantly last year, but their stock prices have risen a lot. After the so-called slump, the valuation is still not low.
In the long run, Dan Bin is optimistic about the five types of industries: consumption, platform Internet companies, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and education. At the same time, Bin Bin said that he will not adjust the industry based on the short-term situation of a quarter, and he is especially taboo against continuous trading in the volatile market.
Regarding the liquor sector that everyone cares about, Bin Bin said that consumer companies have a particularly long cycle. For example, tobacco companies in the United States have spanned many cycles. Any company in the liquor industry will make money if it buys it from the first day of listing and has been holding it. Most of them have earned dozens or even hundreds of times in return. In the long run, the liquor industry will still perform in the future. space.
In addition, Bin Bin said that companies in the pharmaceutical industry can focus on leading technology companies. Regarding the recent major adjustments in the military industry sector, Bin Bin believes that the valuations of many leading military industry companies around the world are not high. In contrast, many domestic military industry companies producing parts and components have high valuations, and their prices are still relatively expensive after the adjustment.
Recently, the market has frequent rotations. According to Wang Hanfeng, this is related to the relatively high proportion of short-term speculation in the market structure. Frequent rotation is not necessarily a very rational behavior; and if you want to find a direction with medium and long-term investment value, it is still It depends on which direction can benefit from the current development trend of our country. “If you want to fish, you have to go to places where you can easily catch fish. From the perspective of investment, China is currently in the stage of consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading. These are the places where it is easier to catch fish.”
The important thing is to find long-term profitable companies that cross the bulls and bears
But Bin said that great companies in history have all grown up from small companies. To find a truly good company, one must judge from five dimensions: first, the company must have no ceiling and unlimited growth space; second, the company’s business The model needs to be simple, reliable, and easy to understand. It should be recognized by more people, and everyone must have a high level of firewood. Third, the company’s profitability must be strong and sustainable, and its annual performance must maintain growth for more than ten consecutive years. Large companies; fourth, there must be commercial barriers, and the moat must be deep and wide; fifth, there must be a good culture and a good team to withstand the challenges of growth.
Regarding the concept of “grouping” in the market, Bin said that he did not agree, and concerns about inflation and liquidity would only interfere with short-term operations. From the perspective of a slightly long-term trend, these factors are not the fundamental factors affecting individual stocks. The real investment does not depend on the judgment of the index, but to find companies that can cross the bull-bear cycle, and the profitability of the company must be able to keep up. , The simpler the basis for investment decision, the more effective it is.
But Bin said that investment should be made around the best few companies, and style rotation should not be used as a reference factor for investment. For investors, it is not advisable to blindly chase hot spots, otherwise it will be easy to chase high or run low, and the core should still be based on the enterprise. Long-term thinking about changes in profitability.
Source: China Securities Journal
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