Semiconductor wafer arena | Wafer supply exceeds demand: the international Matthew effect, domestic efforts to catch up

The opening preface of semiconductor wafer rivers and lakes: On the afternoon of June 16, a “chip robbery” was staged on the streets of Hong Kong. A logistics company transported high-priced chips worth about HK$5 million. Behind the “chip robbery”, it reflects the trend of crazy price increases in the chip industry chain under the global “chip shortage”. According to reports, foundries such as TSMC and UMC in Taiwan are expected to continue to increase prices in the third quarter of 2021, with a maximum increase of 30%. In fact, since the beginning of the year, due to the epidemic caused serious problems in logistics and labor, the production capacity of foundry has become more and more tight, and manufacturers such as UMC and the world’s advanced manufacturers have reported price increases. Huang Chongren, chairman of Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., also pointed out that it is now 2023 orders with customers, and price increases are the general trend. As long as the gross profit margin of customers exceeds that of Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., they will increase. Why can a small wafer have a tendency to “touch the whole body” in the chip market? What is the relationship between the two? In addition, in the global wafer foundry market, why is the voice of major international companies such as TSMC and UMC so high before, and as a country with a large demand for chips, why does not a company compete with it… In response to the above problems, the Caihua News Agency uses “Semiconductor Wafer Rivers and Lakes” as the topic and adopts easy-to-understand writing techniques to lead readers and friends who have been following and supporting Caihua News Agency and Caihua News Agency’s sub-column “Hong Kong Stock Decoding”. We will study the “Wafer Rivers and Lakes” together, and accompany your investment and cognition to a higher level. As the beginning, Caihua News Agency will lead readers and investors to understand the relationship between wafers and chips, as well as the competitive landscape of the global wafer market. Wafer: semiconductor chip, indispensable for me Wafers are also called silicon wafers. Silicon wafer refers to the silicon wafer used to make silicon semiconductor circuits, and its raw material is silicon. The picture above is the source of the silicon wafer: Baidu Gallery A responsible process is needed from elemental silicon to artificial material silicon wafer. First, the purified polycrystalline silicon is dissolved and mixed into silicon crystal seed crystals, and then slowly pulled out to form a cylindrical single crystal silicon, that is, a silicon crystal rod; second, the silicon crystal rod is subjected to photo-engraving, grinding, and polishing. After slicing, a silicon wafer, or wafer, is formed. Generally, the thickness of a silicon wafer is about 1mm or less, which is a round silicon wafer. In addition, silicon wafers have different sizes according to specialized process technology. At present, the domestic wafer production lines are mainly 8-inch and 12-inch. After the silicon wafer is formed, it can be processed into IC products with various circuit component structures, including products such as chips. Specifically, through process technology, millions of transistors (semiconductor devices) are etched on wafers. Semiconductors manage data by controlling current to form various characters, numbers, sounds, images and colors. They are widely used in integrated circuits. Some of these applications are daily applications, such as computers, telecommunications, mobile phones and televisions, and others are used in advanced microwave transmission, laser conversion systems, medical diagnostic and treatment equipment, defense systems, and NASA space shuttles. At present, most common semiconductor chips are made of silicon wafers. Among them, process chips below 14nm are basically manufactured using 12-inch wafers. Therefore, half of the current semiconductor chips are 12-inch wafers. According to statistics, the 12-inch wafer shipment area accounts for about 65% of the semiconductor chip shipment area, and the 8-inch wafer shipment area is about 20. The remaining size wafers share the remaining market. In this regard, the current wafer price increase is focused on 12-inch and 8-inch wafers. Global wafer market: under the three pillars, domestic struggling to catch up Before 2000, compared with the mature United States, Japan and Europe, China’s integrated circuit industry started relatively late, resulting in a low right to speak in this field. In June 2000, my country formulated encouraging policies specifically for the software and integrated circuit industries for the first time. In the following six years, various laws and regulations for integrated circuits and related industries, policies that regulate industrial development and encourage industrial growth were introduced one after another. Among them, 2016 is the first year of integrated circuit policy, “National Innovation-Driven Development Strategy Outline”, “13th Five-Year” National Science and Technology Innovation Plan, “13th Five-Year” National Informatization Plan, and “Information Industry Development Guide” 》The continuous introduction of policies to promote, improve and encourage the development of integrated circuits. Under the favorable industrial policy environment, driven by the superimposed technological wave, market demand is increasing day by day. China’s integrated circuit industry has achieved rapid development, and the market growth rate is significantly higher than the global level. According to statistics from the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the sales of China’s integrated circuit industry in 2016, 2017 and 2018 were 433.6 billion yuan, 541.1 billion yuan and 653.1 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 20% and 25% respectively. And 21%. Although China’s integrated circuit industry has achieved rapid growth, the right to speak in some key areas is still firmly controlled by major international companies. Especially in the IC foundry industry with fast process technology iteration, large capital investment, and long R&D cycle. According to the statistics of Guoyuan Securities, judging from the current changes in the competitive landscape of the foundry industry, with the advancement of process nodes, affected by factors such as rapid process technology iteration and large investment funds, there are fewer and fewer players participating in the competition. , 28nm to 14nm is an obvious watershed, 14nm began to use 3D structure transistors, the manufacturing difficulty increased sharply. At present, there are only six companies in the world with manufacturing capabilities of 14nm and below. Among them, major international manufacturers occupy five seats, and domestic manufacturers occupy one seat. The five major international manufacturers are TSMC, Samsung Semiconductor, UMC, Intel, and GF. The domestic entry is SMIC. From the perspective of the foundry market share, the Matthew effect in the international market is very obvious. TSMC is the dominant player, while the domestic SMIC advantage is not obvious. In 2020, the global foundry market share, the three giants in the international market, TSMC, Samsung Semiconductor and UMC, accounted for nearly 80% of the market share. Among them, TSMC is the absolute leader with a market share of 56.21%, Samsung and UMC are ranked second and third with 15.62% and 7.03% respectively; while the domestic manufacturer SMIC ranks fifth with only 4.61%. There is still a big gap between China’s market share and the giants. However, with China’s strong support for the integrated circuit industry policy, the gap between the technical level of the integrated circuit field and the international leading technology is getting smaller and smaller, and the production capacity of superimposed integrated circuits is gradually shifting to mainland China, and the domestic foundry market will usher in Big growth. By then, there will be more local foundries like SMIC going abroad, gradually narrowing the gap with international manufacturers. This gap is shrinking as the mainland’s investment in semiconductor equipment and production capacity increases. Investment: According to a research report by Guosheng Securities, in 2020, domestic wafer fabs will be built and the semiconductor industry will increase investment. The mainland semiconductor equipment market ranks first in the world for the first time, reaching 18.1 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, accounting for 26.2%. From 2021 to 2022, storage demand will recover and South Korea will lead the world, but the mainland equipment market will remain at a high level of approximately US$16 billion. In terms of production capacity, at present, the integrated circuit industry chain is gradually shifting from the United States, Japan, Europe and Taiwan to China, Southeast Asia and other regions. This is not only conducive to the research and development of advanced technology and accumulation of management experience by domestic enterprises, and promotes the rapid development of local enterprises, but also conducive to the domestic integrated circuit industry to provide new support in reducing costs, expanding production capacity, and geographical convenience. The development played a role in promoting. According to SEMI data, there are 62 semiconductor fabs in production globally between 2017 and 2020, of which 26 are located in mainland China, accounting for 42% of the global total. It is expected that at least 38 12-inch wafer fabs will be added from 2020 to 2024. In the global wafer expansion, TSMC and Samsung’s two major international fabs have invested more than 30 billion US dollars in expansion. Although mainland wafer companies are not as wealthy as large fabs, domestic wafer manufacturers are not far behind. SMIC , Silan Micro, China Resources Micro, Wingtech, Hua Hong, Yuexin Semiconductor, etc., have joined the team to expand wafer production capacity. It is foreseeable that with the gradual completion and commissioning of new wafer fabs by companies such as SMIC, Silan Micro, China Resources Micro, Wingtech, etc., it will not only greatly meet the strong demand of the mainland market, but also promote China The training of professionals in the integrated circuit industry and the development of supporting industries have narrowed the gap between domestic manufacturers and international manufacturers. Text: Yizhi Author | Yizhi Edit | lala