Shui Pi: “Talking about stocks and gold” trades time for space

Shui Pi: “Talking about stocks and gold” trades time for space

Water skin/text

A-share dictatorships all kinds of objections.

Yesterday, Shuipi mentioned in the stock review that the current market trend is not falling when falling, and it should be bullish. Today, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index gave us a little bit of color. At the close of the market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%. Although the decline was not large, it was enough to give us a slap in the face. Fortunately, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext are still in support. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% and the ChiNext rose 0.77%. So Shuipi’s judgment yesterday is actually half fulfilled today.

In fact, from the perspective of opening, the three major indexes opened higher today, which is in line with the logic that Shuipi said yesterday. But in the end, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets went their separate ways. After the retreat and consolidation, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange rose all the way, the ChiNext, including the Shenzhen Component Index. However, the Shanghai Composite Index has been in a slump. Why is there such a scenario?

Mainly has a lot to do with today’s plate rotation. Today is the world of cyclical stocks again. Simply put, it is the market of coal flying and dancing. Yesterday’s “two bottles of wine” and bank stocks, which had a relatively large impact on the index, have entered a state of correction today. As a result, the Shanghai Composite Index was weakened, and a considerable part of bank stocks fell, which constituted a certain degree of suppression on the index.

From the perspective of trading volume, we can also see some signs. Today, the two cities totaled about 740 billion yuan. It should be said that at this point, the trading volume is still relatively sluggish, not enough to support the continued strength of the sector. Therefore, the current situation on the board is very uncomfortable. All transactions are uninteresting because they are not supported by volume.

Now whether it is the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext, there are about 4,200 stocks that are traded every day, and the trading volume is only a little over 700 billion. In other words, the average daily trading volume of a stock is less than 200 million.

From a distribution point of view, there are 137 companies with a market capitalization of more than 100 billion, accounting for more than 30% of the total transaction volume. There are about 1,900 stocks in the two markets with a market value of less than 5 billion, and the trading volume accounts for 10% of the total trading volume, which is very reluctant. So Shuipi has always said that now stocks must focus on the big and let go of the small, and this is the reason.

Because the market value of stocks is too small, it is very difficult to get in and out of institutional funds, which is simply ignored. So it’s no wonder why companies with a market capitalization of less than 3 billion expect institutions to conduct research as a luxury. Because everyone feels that there is no need to look at stocks with a market value of less than 3 billion, and there is no room for institutions.

The reason is that the current trading volume is relatively low. For a long time, everyone has not seen the so-called fund explosion news. Shuipi believes that the issuance of funds is also more difficult now, so it is difficult to expect sustained performance of the index due to low turnover.

Now it’s basically a cowhide market pattern. Don’t be ecstatic when it rises. If it falls, there is no need to cry. The market will definitely look for a reasonable valuation range.

Now various institutions, especially funds, are reporting their positions in the first quarter, including QFII. In fact, you can see that there have been some adjustments in positions, and it is very obvious. In particular, the upward adjustment of positions in some Baotuan stocks last year, including Masukura in some financial stocks, will gradually take effect.

The hype span of fund holding stocks has also lasted for nearly two years. At the beginning, everyone was skeptical. Especially for the “two bottles of wine” in the liquor sector, Moutai was treated as a case at the beginning. It evolved into the market for the entire sector.

Shuipi believes that there will be funds with foresight in the next round of the market, and fund managers with foresight have made adjustments to their positions. Then began to deploy in some important strategic assets with low valuations. Finally, if we can get everyone’s response, it will form a new round of market.

If we can’t get everyone’s response, the market will continue to fluctuate and languish, waiting for the opportunity.

One sentence comment: trade time for space.

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