“Let’s live up to the new era and go on a new journey together”, hosted by Shenzhen Private Equity Chamber of Commerce, Private Equity Ranking Network, and co-sponsored by Huabao Fund and Century Securities, Ping An Securities, China Securities, Yunxi Fund, Hongxi Fund, Co-organized by Senrui Investment, specially co-hosted by Shenzhen Local Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, specially supported by the People’s Government of Futian District, Shenzhen, and supported by the Fund of Funds Research Center as a strategic support unit The 15th China (Shenzhen) Private Equity Summit Forum kicked off on April 22, 2021 at the Futian Shangri-La Hotel, Shenzhen.
Zhao Yuanyuan, vice president of Shenzhen Qianhai Jianhong Times Assets, has been engaged in securities investment research for 15 years, master of economics from Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, CFA holder. He once engaged in macro strategy research at Guotai Junan and other securities firms, and was shortlisted as the best analyst of “New Fortune” in 2009. He successively served as a fund manager in public equity institutions such as Caitong Fund and Huashang Fund, and won the 13th China “Golden Fund” Partial Equity Mixed Fund Award. The 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year champions of private equity strategic products (private equity ranking, data as of the end of 2020).
Zhao Yuanyuan, Vice President of Shenzhen Qianhai Jianhong Times Assets
The following is the full text of the speech:
The host has already introduced that our company is the champion of the stock strategy group in 2020, and we are also the champion of the stock strategy subjective long strategy in the past 5 years (the scale of 100 million to 100 million). At the same time, I am also the ranking net in the first quarter of this year. The champion of the stock strategy fund manager ranking.
Since last year, our company has changed from managing its own funds to raising capital from outsiders. Everyone may be curious about why our products have performed very prominently in the past two years. Looking at this performance curve, we have not only made a good profit, but also a very small drawdown. We are one of the few companies in the market that can control the drawdown very small while achieving high returns.
Everyone would like to know our strategy very much. Today I will be very frank with you colleagues to exchange our strategy. no doubt, Stock selection is very important, and we have done a very outstanding job in this regard. But if only relying on an excellent stock selection strategy, can the performance be so smooth? The answer is no. We think that we can make the performance curve so smooth by timing . Many friends don’t trust the timing strategy so much, but I will tell you why we can do this timing strategy well.
I remember that in January this year, many reporters and friends came to interview and asked what do you think of the championship spell? The so-called championship spell is that if you win the first place last year, it is usually possible to fall to the bottom half in the second year. . This is how I answered. Of course, this is my personal understanding, not necessarily correct. What is the reason for the championship spell? The first is that many fund managers are good at stock selection, and they are only good at stock selection. Such fund managers generally have their own ability boundaries, and they tend to be in the direction that they are familiar with, such as growth, such as consumption or For medicine, choose a company that has been thoroughly researched in the field you are familiar with.
We say that a good company does not necessarily perform well in every period. After all, it is a stock. As a stock, it will definitely be affected by the macro cycle or market risk appetite. If your investment target is also confined to a single field that you are good at, it may appear to be very good in the field you are good at last year, but due to the rotation of styles in the second year, the performance of that industry will not work. At this time, the so-called championship spell appeared.
We made good use of a macro cycle last year, and many times our stock picks also benefited from the epidemic. But if I just rely on this, it cannot explain why this year, I have still been able to win the championship in the stock strategy group. Our timing strategy is to ensure that in every economic cycle or every monetary cycle or style preference cycle, we can select the best performing industry at the time. Only in this way can we ensure low retracement and high returns. If it is always confined to one industry or one type of industry, there will be a relatively large drawdown. This is the first point I want to emphasize, The important reason for ensuring low retracement is the timing strategy.
Second, whether the championship spell can be broken or not depends on whether the strategy itself is objective. Although we call the subjective stock strategy, we are not actually making decisions with our heads. In our timing strategy, every step of our decision-making is based on objective economic data. Whether it comes from macro or market data, we are all Rely on these objective variables to guide the operation. If a company that won the championship does not rely on objective strategies to guide operations, but rely on subjective judgments to operate, there may be a “championship curse” problem.
There are many methods for timing strategy, quantification is one method, and we adopt a top-down macro strategy. Why use this? Or why I think I can use this strategy well, but this strategy is not suitable for everyone? This has something to do with my background.
Why can I do a good macro strategy? First of all, I studied economics in my school, and my macro skills are very good. Later, I did 7 years of macro strategy research in an institution like Guotai Junan. At that time, the direction was the allocation of large-scale assets and industry allocation. When should I take a high position and when should I buy which industry? This is what I studied at the time. The direction, after seven years, has laid a good foundation. Compared with those fund managers with industry research background, my way of thinking may be quite different from him.
Second, I later worked as a public fund manager for 5 years. In these 5 years, I basically applied my previous top-down strategy to my public offering products. In public offerings, position restrictions and individual stock restrictions cannot optimize this strategy, but as the strategy gradually matures, we have also achieved good returns during the public offering, ranking in the top 14%. After the private placement, because my position can change drastically and the industry configuration can also be extreme, I have maximized the advantages of this strategy. This is what everyone sees that I have achieved in private equity.
This is myself, Why should I do a macro top-down strategy and timing strategy are related to my discipline and background.
Let me introduce our team. Mr. Bian I work in an insurance company. Everyone knows that insurance companies manage large funds. Mr. Bian is also very accurate in the general direction, and he guides us. Although I said that the macro can guide us to do some asset allocation, after all, it cannot be refined to the daily operation, because in my experience, the macro variables can guide the weekly level operation is already very good, but if you want to refine it to the day level In fact, it needs some other indicators and other capable people to cooperate.
We also have two outstanding fund managers, Chen Zhihui Sir, his way of thinking is slightly different from mine. He pays great attention to the signal reflection of the market itself. Mr. Guo It is our quantitative fund manager, and we also have a relatively small amount of quantification. Relying on Mr. Guo and Mr. Chen, they cooperate with the two fund managers in front of us who are guided by the macro, and we can refine our operations from cycle to day. This is our team.
The performance has just been introduced. Let’s go directly to our top-down investment strategy.
What is the first important factor that determines the stock index? Maybe many people like to use the economic growth rate to be linked to the stock index. This method is correct, but it is not entirely correct. Only when there is a sharp turning point in economic expectations, we will judge the stock index by economic growth. The so-called sharp turning point refers to a major event such as a trade war or an epidemic that can greatly reverse economic growth expectations. Only then do we need to consider the impact of economic growth on the index.
Last year there were two significant adjustments: one was the outbreak of the epidemic in China. The second time was the outbreak in the United States, and these two times led to market adjustments. Maybe some people didn’t pay much attention to it when the news of the epidemic first came out. But it only took me an hour to study this. The RNA virus is a single-stranded ribonucleic acid that can be recombined with any other nucleic acid fragments. The variability of this virus causes this matter to not end so quickly. So before the Spring Festival, we reflected on this matter. This is the first factor that affects the index, the economic expectation has a big turning point.
What is the second factor? It’s currency. Everyone may look at different monetary indicators. Some people look at interest rates. I remember that when the market adjusted last week, a sell-side analyst came out and said that our social financial data was not as good as expected, but I personally didn’t think so. Because in all the research I have done, there is only one macro variable that affects the index, that is, the base currency. Only it has a great correlation with the index, so I can’t tell the story by looking at the social financial data. In my case, social financial data affects the price of industrial products, and social financial represents the currency flowing into the real economy. Our index not only considers the liquidity of the real economy, but also considers the virtual economy, especially the virtual economy.
The basic data is the sum of the currencies issued by the central bank, and it also includes the virtual economy and the real economy. Only by considering this can it be complete. This law is not only established in China’s A-shares, Hong Kong stocks and the US S&P 500 are most closely related to the base currency, or the size of the debt side of the central bank’s balance sheet.
For example, there was a wave of small adjustments in January this year, which was one or two weeks before the Spring Festival. What happened to the base currency at that time? In fact, there are many variables for us to track the base currency reference, such as reserves, such as targeted loans, these are all possible. Another important reference variable is the central bank’s attitude towards the interest rate corridor. We should not stare at the open market operation itself, but should look at the background of the open market operation under what interest rate background, and what shape he wants to describe the interest rate corridor.
From this perspective, on January 15th, the MLF was shrinking at that time. That was the reason for the market adjustment in January. We judge the central bank’s monetary policy in two dimensions, the first is forecasting, and the second is tracking. Forecast, what can you look at? Generally speaking, we look at inflation and economic growth. These two data are more reliable.
When the market adjusted last week, some sellers said that our inflation data was too high, which would allow the central bank to collect currency. I also hit X in this sentence. why? In fact, when we look at whether an economic variable has an impact on the central bank, we need to look at its comparison with its target value. For example, for inflation, the central bank’s target for this year is 3%, but according to my forecast model, the highest value of CPI this year will be around 1.9 in May and around 2.1 in November, which means that the level for the whole year is certain. It is below 2, which is far from the 3% target. For the rest of this year, there is no need to consider whether inflation will affect the central bank’s monetary policy, and no need to consider at all.
in contrast, Economic growth will actually have a greater impact on the central bank’s monetary actions . The GDP in the first quarter was not as good as expected, and the two-year compound growth rate was only a few 5% points, which has not yet reached the 6% level. Especially in the manufacturing industry, the first quarter was very poor. In this context, I think it is unlikely that the central bank will make monetary adjustments in a tighter direction at the Politburo meeting. This is my judgment. It depends on which economic variable the central bank is mainly considering at the time, and what the target value of this variable corresponds to. Therefore, this year there is no need to consider inflation, only growth.
In addition, the central bank may also consider other things. For example, when the RMB appreciated the most against the US dollar last year, the central bank said at that time that our monetary policy should consider employment. What’s the meaning behind this? The exchange rate is related to exporting companies, and exporting companies, especially small and medium-sized export companies, are very important entities for employment. So what the central bank said at the time meant that if the renminbi continued to appreciate in this way, we would release the water. I think The meaning behind him is this. Fortunately, within two months, the U.S. dollar began to appreciate against the renminbi, so the current exchange rate does not need to be considered, but at that time, the currency policy of the central bank did not need to be considered.
There is also an unconventional factor. For example, the base currency was actually very abundant in November and December last year. It was because of the large number of defaults on credit bonds at that time. The central bank took some unconventional measures in order not to proliferate this matter. The currency was released in November and December. This can also explain why the currency will start to be collected on January 15, when it was not particularly obvious at the time, but it was indeed shrinking. It is because at the end of last year, the liquidity of credit debts needs to be corrected in January, because the problem of default of credit debts was not so obvious in January, and there is no need for the central bank to do anything. So the central bank accepted the currency in January.
Just now I told you how to predict the monetary policy of the central bank, looking at the distance between conventional economic indicators and economic targets, and considering some unconventional economic indicators in light of the current situation. Conventional economic indicators are inflation and growth, and unconventional economic indicators include credit debt and so on. If it is not pre-judged, you can also track some of the high-frequency behavior of the central bank. If it is a stock index futures, it will be easier to understand. If the MLF is shrinking on January 15th, you can empty the stock index that day. This is an explanation of the January adjustment.
After February, everyone knows that we have continued to do the MLF in the same amount for three consecutive months. In other words, in these three months, the global index or, specifically, the Fed’s liquidity will affect the index. The Fed’s liquidity is a very important factor that led to the adjustment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index on February 18. Why cut from domestic monetary policy to foreign countries?
Because the domestic economic variables at that time were completely meaningless, and the same amount was continued for 2, 3, and 4 for three consecutive months. When domestic currency changes can no longer guide you to look at the index, you must consider foreign ones. Because we track the Northward funds every day, we calculate the correlation between the Northward funds and the CSI 300 every day. Once we find that the correlation between the Northward funds and the CSI 300 analysis graph has improved on many trading days, the focus should be shifted to foreign countries at this time. Liquidity.
In addition, we also need to look at the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds, the ten-year real interest rate, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the MSCI emerging market index. Beginning in mid-March, U.S. Treasury bonds began to plummet, and emerging market indexes began to plummet. At that time, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB also began to figure out, and it was in an upward direction. In addition, the correlation between Beijing Capital and the CSI 300 has begun to increase, and at this time the focus should be on changes in foreign liquidity.
Why did the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 plummet at that time, and the so-called Baotuan Baima stocks represented by food and beverages began to collectively slump? It is because at that time, as the number of new crowns in Europe and America dropped every day, crude oil and copper began to skyrocket. Once this phenomenon occurs, it is natural to think that the capital or foreign capital will begin to withdraw from the A-share market.
The most sensitive to the Fed’s currency is emerging markets or some highly valued U.S. varieties The so-called risk assets are the most sensitive to the Fed’s currency. Once such a phenomenon occurs, we can know that foreign capital is about to go, and that all the baijiu that foreign capital has heavy warehouses should go away first. I will talk about industry configuration next. This will not only affect my judgment on the index, but also my judgment on industry configuration or market style. This is how domestic and foreign liquidity affects the index.
Up to now, in recent weeks, since the daily number of new crowns in the United States has flattened out, capital from the North China has not flowed out, and liquor beverages have bottomed out. At this time, I returned to focus on domestic monetary policy. Why did the market fluctuate in the last two days and everyone always said that the central bank adjusted its monetary policy? It is because now that we no longer care about foreign countries, the number of new additions in the United States has been flat. Later, if I want to predict the next market index, I may also focus on the expected changes in domestic liquidity.
In fact, when the macro cycle fluctuates greatly, for example, last year, it was judged that the stock index should contribute a lot to the performance. But like this year, I think that the possibility of obtaining excess returns is not a judgment on the stock index, but a judgment on the industry.
What industry when? What I have listed here are the contributions of all fund managers in our investment department, which I think are good tracks. In January, when I was interviewed by many media, I made it very clear that the four industries I am optimistic about this year are intelligent automotive, the second is carbon neutrality, and the third is demand-side reform. Next comes advanced manufacturing. But this does not mean that I bought these stocks. These are two different things. This is the difference between research and investment.
These stocks are well studied just to put the stock pool in. When should they buy carbon neutral? When to buy an intelligent car? When should I buy the value economy and lazy economy listed at the end of my list, and when should I buy these for consumption? This is another timing system to answer this question. This is more of a bottom-up stock selection. This should be the most similar to its peers. It is to pick a good track first, and pick a good stock from a good track, just like its peers. But the next point I want to talk about is that I am different from my peers, that is, I am optimistic about these things, when I will buy them into my stocks.
Three factors are mainly considered:
The first is market risk appetite. The most important reference factor is interest rate or spread.
The second is the funding trends of institutions, which are more of game thinking.
The third is the verification index, echoing the same industry.
The first risk appetite , I see a lot of information every day, all kinds of good and bad, should we turn the news we read every day into our trading behavior? In fact, you need a framework like you to filter this information. For example, I currently have more than 500 WeChat groups, and I don’t know how much information is available every day. Let’s filter inside, what can be transformed into your buying behavior, and what can’t?
First of all, the first point is to judge the risk appetite of the market. The most reliable way is to look at how the market responds to the news. For example, in the past two days, a policy for electrified energy storage has been issued. How do the stocks of relevant electrified energy storage reflect? If it rises before the news comes out, but does not rise after the news comes out, how does the stock react to the good news? This way of reflection directly reflects risk preference. But this is a bit subjective. I said that our strategy must be objective, and the strategy must be linked to actual data.
The objective data I pay more attention to include: For three-year government bonds, or the spread between ten-year and two-year periods, credit spreads are occasionally looked at. This concretizes my judgment on risk appetite. Why look at the three-year national debt? This is the relationship between the three-year Treasury bond and the industry that performed best in the past five years. It can be seen that the industry that performed best when interest rates fell is generally the cycle or growth, or theme.
If interest rates are rising, the best performing industries are either big consumption or big finance. Why is it a three-year period? I personally understand that because generally speaking, the interest rate of treasury bonds for a period of one or two years reflects the liquidity of the market, while the interest rate of the forward period, like a ten-year period, contains information on liquidity, inflation expectations and risk appetite inside. If the interest rate difference is made, the ten-year period minus the two-year period will only have risk appetite, while the three-year Treasury bond interest rate has both liquidity and risk appetite information in it.
After the Spring Festival last year and before May 1st, interest rates fell sharply, and the currency and finances were both loose. At that time, it should be selected in the growth and cycle. Combined with the situation at that time, in terms of stock selection, due to the sharp drop in interest rates at that time, everyone had a high tolerance for risk, so instead of choosing some transformation stocks, they performed better than IDC stocks in the main business. This is an example from last year.
Interest rates began to rise on May 1st last year, and this upward trend basically continued until December last year. After May 1st last year, we participated in several relatively good industries. One was medical supplies, such as gloves. Later, he participated in new energy vehicles, and finally participated in a little bit of liquor. Why did you choose these industries? Because the entire interest rate is in an upward cycle, we should be biased towards large consumption in terms of industry selection.
Everyone remembers news about semiconductor shortages and price increases. In fact, it started in the third quarter of last year. In the third quarter of last year, we often saw such information when reading the news, but then we saw the information about semiconductor shortages and price increases. At that time, would you buy semiconductors? My answer is no. why? Because the semiconductor is a TMT industry, it is essentially a growth-type industry. When the interest rate rises sharply, the performance of the growth-type industry is unsatisfactory. This is how I rely on the risk appetite system to guide me to choose the industry and the news we see.
However, this strategy is not very easy to use after February this year, so my chart has not been updated because interest rates have flattened since February. At this time, we can no longer use the framework of risk appetite to do industry configuration. Instead, we should look at another major factor that affects industry configuration: the game of capital. We know that the preferred industries of Beijing Capital and Insurance, and the preferred industries of public offerings and individual investors are slightly different.
For example, carbon neutrality. When I was interviewed in January, I listed it as my second industry optimistic. But I didn’t buy it. The time when I really bought carbon neutrality was after the Baima stock group collapsed, that is, after February 18. Why did you choose this time? Just now I told you how I used the U.S. Treasury bond interest rates, exchange rates, emerging market indexes, and the correlation coefficients between Northbound funds and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ticks to determine when the Great White Malaysia stocks collapsed.
Because in January, the discussion was in full swing when the group would collapse. In fact, I don’t think there is any need to participate in the discussion. There are really many objective indicators. You can stare at these economic indicators. The four indicators I mentioned earlier will know when to escape from liquor stocks and home appliances. Or the industry preferred by foreign capital.
The reason why carbon neutrality can only start slowly after February 18th has a lot to do with the escape of Beijing capital from A shares. , If there is no such factor in it, I don’t think it will be fully involved in the theme of carbon neutrality. But at that time, I cut out everything related to consumption because I saw the outflow of funds from the north, which led to a change in the industry style of the entire market. Because we are a stock game, when the big white horse does not work here, funds will definitely look for some hot spots in the small and medium caps. But how many positions you have to take to participate in this kind of theme investment should also be judged based on the performance of the white horse and blue chips at the time.
In addition to the collapse of the White Horse stock market, there is another factor for carbon neutrality, that is, everyone expects that this industrial policy will come out before and after the two sessions. Therefore, we also cooperated with the timing of the two sessions and chose to participate at that time instead of participating when we told reporters in January. This is an example I cite. At certain times, for example, when our risk appetite or interest rates begin to not guide you to judge the industry, how do you judge the industry configuration from the perspective of institutional gaming?
The third is the verification indicator. There is another special thing in the past two years, that is, our industry allocation must consider not only the domestic economic cycle, but also the foreign economic cycle. In theory, according to the logic diagram I just mentioned, after November last year, cyclical stocks should have no chance of performance, because there is neither loose currency nor loose finances. From November last year to February this year, the strength of cyclical stocks was actually related to foreign economic cycles.
The reason why it started in November last year is because the vaccines were distributed after they passed the test. After about a month later, we saw that the number of daily new additions in the world began to decline. The situation of cyclical stocks in the past was actually a special case. This happened when the economic cycle quarters of China and foreign countries were not balanced. , It is basically synchronized in normal times. At this time, you can completely follow the logic diagram model I showed you before to layout, and judge whether to participate in cyclical stocks based on currency and finance. Now, it may be necessary to consider not only the domestic economic cycle but also the foreign economic cycle.
Cyclical stocks had a wave of performance in February. In fact, as early as January, the cyclical industry began to emerge strong stocks. In March, the concept of carbon neutrality appeared again, and the cycle showed another expression through this east wind. In this process, we saw a phenomenon, that is, within the cycle of the entire large industry, in fact, each sub-industry is rising in rotation, such as non-ferrous, black, and chemical industries. Assuming that in a large industry, only a few industries are rising. This industry cannot be said to be particularly strong. Only when all sub-sectors in a big industry are rising in rotation, this industry is strong enough. This can be a good explanation for the previous cyclical stock market.
Back to the present, as I said, both domestic interest rates and changes in foreign liquidity expectations have flattened out. At this time, we cannot rely on these two factors to judge. This state may be maintained from April or even to the first half of May. There is no obvious dominant state among cycle, growth, and consumption. This is related to the flattening of currency interest rates and the flattening of foreign liquidity expectations.
But on the other hand, it can be verified from the middle view that there are only one or two special strengths within each major industry. For example, in the past two days, medical beauty and liquor, or the entire alcohol and medical beauty are relatively strong. But other consumer branches are not so strong. Going back to an earlier point, the smart car line should be the strongest in the TMT field, but if you look at other branches, such as the panel or the Apple industry chain, these will not work.
What i want to say is At present, there is no industry that possesses the middle view to reflect internal rotation, that is, there is no inter-correspondence relationship within the major industries. This is a reference indicator. I think the first two indicators may be the focus of my consideration. This is my industry. The method of configuration. I tell you so much. It’s not about how to select industries from top to bottom. It’s more about how to use this framework to filter information when you see a piece of news to decide whether to transform it into Your trading behavior.
Looking forward to the future, From February to May, domestic interest rates were flat. But I think that starting from May and June, our inflation will start to go down. This has something to do with the trend of commodities, such as the South China Industrial Products Index and crude oil. At the same time, referring to the difference between the growth rate of base currency and social financing, I think it will enter a downward channel for the PPI in May and June. For people who do stocks, what is the reference meaning of this information to us? That is, our risk appetite should be improved, and we should pay more attention to growth stocks. To put it bluntly, we can also pay more attention to some story-telling stocks.
There is no performance this year, but the performance may be reflected in the next two or three years. Like this type of stock, such as autonomous driving, I think there will be no performance in autonomous driving this year. The most optimistic situation is that there will be performance next year. To cite this example is that when your interest rate starts to go down, this kind of stock that can only reflect performance in the future, but can not reflect the performance now, you can also participate. When interest rates rise, this kind of thing should not be involved.
If the interest rate goes down after May and June, everyone can participate in this kind of growth, or the storytelling in which performance is reflected in the future but not in the present. So recently many reporters have asked me whether I am optimistic about wine or banks. I think I am optimistic about May at most, even my favorite medical beauty, after May, it is impossible to participate in such a large position .
This is my industry prediction for the future based on my judgment framework.
But in fact, there are still many uncertain factors, including what I said about whether foreign capital will come in and out in the future. I can’t tell you my judgment now, because I look at the number of epidemics every day. There is also, for example, the relationship between China and the Western world. Some time ago, China and all Western countries had very fierce conflicts on the ideological level. Will this conflict be transformed into a trade conflict in the future? Affect the trend of A shares, or the trend of industry allocation? Foreign investment is more sensitive to the political situation, will it have an impact on industry allocation and index? I can’t judge right now. I can only say that there is a string in our psychology. In the future, if something I said happens, for example, the overseas epidemic suddenly goes up or down, or the conflict between China and the Western world suddenly intensifies. It has penetrated into the trade level again. At this time, the judgment of the industry and the index is different. But now I tell everyone that my judgment on the style after June is based on the information I have now.
Stock picking is not my strong suit, so I’ll make it simpler. The stocks that can enter our stock pool must be stocks with no major fundamental problems. In terms of stock selection preferences, I also have a focus. When should I participate in stocks with medium and small market capitalizations that are highly elastic? Usually it happens when I think the market risk appetite is high, or when I am prepared to participate in this topic for a short time, I will look for that kind of stock. When do you choose to participate in the industry leader? Of course, if you can, you can also double the participation in margin financing and securities lending. In fact, it will happen when the market risk appetite begins to ebb. I think that if I have been involved in this industry for a long time, I may choose some that have performance support. This is a rough idea.
Let’s show our scoring system for entering the stock pool, and scoring each stock. There are basically these four latitudes:
The first latitude is how the product industry’s track is. This should be the most weighted, basically accounting for 40%.
The second is that the company’s competitiveness must be consistent with the key elements of the industry. For example, if you give a score to Amic, will you carefully analyze whether the ingredients in it are degradable? will not. Because when you look at a to C consumer product, your focus or the basis for scoring should be his brand power, not his technical threshold. For example, when choosing advanced manufacturing stocks, is the scoring basis based on brand power? not necessarily. The scoring basis should be based on technical barriers.
As for cyclical stocks, timing is the most important. If cyclical stocks can influence the spot price through the monopoly of the industry and hoarding stocks, if there are actions in this respect, it should also be a bonus. In other words, when scoring a company, it is based on its industry attributes and from different angles. This is the second point I mentioned. The competitiveness of the company must be consistent with the key elements of the industry in which it operates.
The third is the company’s strategic thinking and actions, whether it is consistent with the future development direction of this industry. For example, the future of automobiles is new energy and intelligent. Does the company pay enough attention to the future development path of this industry? In terms of the degree of importance the company’s leaders attach to, investment, and finding strategic partners, are they moving in this direction? We look at so many car-making forces in China today, and some new car-making forces are particularly sensitive to intelligence, such as Xiaopeng. But in other companies, he seems to feel that his actions are half a beat slower than others in this regard, and the investment is not particularly enough, which will cause him to score very low on the third item.
Fourth is the company’s own governance , Not much to say here. For example, this is what everyone recognizes as a big white horse. This is the text when I had a meeting with Betteni last year, and I haven’t changed a single word until now. I just give an example. As a consumer goods industry, he can score high in the three items I just mentioned. Why is it said that the sensitive skin track is better than the average skin care track because of the current excessive medical beauty and staying up late. Vibrato and excessive skin care. The second is to look at the double eleven rankings. Look at the rankings of skincare apps. He is relatively high, so he scores the second highest. The third is the marketing strategy. As a new brand born from online marketing, it has adopted online direct sales from the very beginning and found a large number of doctors to do live broadcasts and deliver goods.
I won’t say more about other examples, because time is running out, thank you for listening.
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