At the start of the Hanover Fair, the important industry associations presented their forecasts for business in the current year. You expect a gradual recovery – under certain conditions.
In view of the progressing vaccinations, the German industry expects the economy to pick up significantly in the coming months. In terms of production, he expects “a strong plus of eight percent compared to the previous year,” said the President of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Siegfried Russwurm, at the opening of the Hanover Fair. At the start of the corona-related digital industrial fair, the BDI, the Association of German Mechanical and Plant Engineering (VDMA) and the Central Association of the Electrical and Electronics Industry (ZVEI) presented their annual forecasts.
When will the upswing come?
In the past few months, German industry has been an important driving force behind the economic recovery in Germany. That is why the current forecasts of the three major industry associations were awaited with great excitement. And although the big upswing is likely to be a long time coming, the prospects for the industry are better than feared – provided, according to the unanimous assessment of the associations, that the lockdown measures do not need to be tightened any further. The forecasts are based on the assumption that the previous restrictions will be scaled back in the coming months and that vaccination will be successful.
“No further conditions”
Many companies received significantly more orders again, said BDI President Russwurm. There are already more incoming orders than before the crisis. A prerequisite for recovery is “largely reducing pandemic-related restrictions by early autumn” – and that there are no further requirements for the manufacturing industry. With the help of general practitioners and company doctors, Germany must also become more flexible and speed up when it comes to vaccinating. Russwurm also pointed out that the extended lockdown would have consequences in a number of areas. According to the updated BDI forecast, economic output is likely to increase by three percent in 2021. That is half a percentage point less than initially assumed.
Increased prognosis
The Association of German Mechanical and Plant Engineering (VDMA) has increased its forecast for the production volume in 2021 by around three percentage points to up to seven percent. Above all, the good demand from Asia, especially from China, is encouraging. In the USA, impulses would come from the economic stimulus program launched by President Joe Biden. “The EU is also recovering step by step, albeit a little more slowly,” said association president Karl Haeusgen. However, he restricted the fact that Corona still unsettled and burdens companies. In addition, there would be structural change in the automotive industry and, in some cases, delivery problems. “However, mechanical engineering is showing itself to be resilient even in this difficult phase.” The VDMA boss warned politicians to implement uniform pandemic regulations and develop a long-term strategy. “However, it now also needs unity, clarity and concrete political plans for the time after.”
Positive mood in the electrical industry
ZVEI President Gunther Kegel was also confident for the electrical industry. “The electrical industry got off to a positive start in 2021,” said Kegel. This year a production increase of five percent could be achieved. “If you look at the orders received in the first three months, things can possibly go even better.” Capacity utilization was almost back at the previous year’s level at 82 percent in the first quarter of 2021. Incoming orders also generated optimism. In February alone there was an increase of 13 percent over the previous year. On the debate about mandatory corona protection requirements in the industry, Kegel said that over 90 percent of the companies in his industry were already testing. “This means that another tightened lockdown is not only unnecessary for the industry, it also makes no sense.”
Networking and automation as a topic
The fair in Hanover is considered to be the largest industrial show in the world. In online presentations, live streams from exhibitors, numerous video conferences and a new networking tool, the companies focus on technologies for networking and automation in production and logistics. In particular, contributions for more energy efficiency are to be shown. Economic policy rounds, specialist lectures and panel discussions are also planned.
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