Originally, most of the original quarterly reports this year were pre-happy, but A shares fell below 3,400 points. What is the reason for the stock market decline?

China stock market

Compared with last year’s quarterly report, this year’s A-share listed companies’ quarterly report performance is generally expected to be happy. The reason is that, on the one hand, the base number last year was low, and it is very difficult for performance growth this year compared to the same period last year; on the other hand, the expected economic recovery this year has risen significantly, and the performance recovery of listed companies will also be significantly enhanced.

In fact, due to the special environmental impact in the first quarter of 2020, the data in the quarterly report of listed companies last year did not have much reference. For the market, it is more willing to conduct a comparative analysis with the quarterly report data of 2019. In reality, although many listed companies reported a substantial increase in the performance of this year’s quarterly report compared with the same period last year, there is still a gap compared with the 2019 quarterly report. In other words, if the performance of a listed company in the first quarter of this year is stronger than that of the first quarter of 2019, then for this listed company, the growth advantage is still relatively obvious. On the contrary, it may reflect that the profitability of listed companies is not strong. It is just that compared with the first quarterly report of 2020, there has been a repairable performance, and the performance of market prices will naturally be greatly reduced. As a result, this can explain the reason why some listed companies have announced their performance pre-history, but the capital market does not buy it.

In addition, there is also a phenomenon that the performance of listed companies is growing well. This year’s quarterly report not only increased significantly compared with the same period last year, but also showed signs of growth compared to the first quarterly report of 2019. However, judging from the price performance of the secondary market, it is still being sold off by market funds, which may be related to the high valuation factors of listed companies themselves. Or, in the context of intensified institutional grouping and disagreement, there is pressure for institutions to concentrate on selling.

Since February 18 this year, the A-share market has shown a trend of “killing valuations”, which is mainly concentrated on the white horse stocks in the A-share market. However, from the perspective of these white horse stocks that have been sold by institutions, they mainly have the characteristics of institutional grouping, high valuations and large previous increases. In contrast, blue-chip stocks with low valuations and small gains in the previous period did not show a significant downward trend, becoming the most stable listed company this year.

The white horse stock market’s “killing valuation” is largely related to the anticipated advancement of the inflection point of loose liquidity, which is also a manifestation of partial de-bubble. In addition, as the “anchor” for the valuation and pricing of global core assets, the yields of US 10-year Treasury bonds have soared, which has also accelerated the compression rate of the global core asset valuation premium.

As the white horse stocks occupying a higher weight in the market, this round of irrational decline in the market has a greater impact on the market index. However, due to the impact of many large blue chip stocks, the decline in the market index is not very significant. Since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai Stock Index has performed relatively well in the Shenzhen market.

A shares fell below 3400 points again, and the total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shrank to less than 700 billion yuan, which shows that the investment sentiment in the market has dropped to a freezing point. As the market continues to shrink, it actually heralds that the market’s turning point is approaching. However, from another perspective, if the major A-share market indexes have fallen below the half-year line and the annual line, and the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has fallen below the level of 500 billion yuan, then the A-share market may be declared Step into the bear market again.

Over the years, the A-share market has often been characterized by a bull market for only three years and a bear market for only five years. Whether this market curse can be broken this time, there are still certain unknowns. However, according to the current valuation level of the A-share market and the analysis of the economic environment, the A-share market does not yet have the basis for entering a bear market again. Even according to the relatively weak trend, it is difficult for the A-share market to re-enact the unilateral decline in 2015 and 2018, and it is more likely to complete the process of turbulence and bottoming in the form of time for space.

From the overall analysis, although the decline of the market index will be relatively limited, judging from the rapid decline of the White Horse stock in the last two months, the market is more inclined to partially defoam, rather than defoaming and deleveraging. Market. Compared with 2019 and 2020, the A-share market in 2021 will look more dull, and the structural market has become the main tone of this year’s market.

However, with the experience and lessons learned from the deleveraging market in the second half of 2015, at the level of policy supervision, the attitude of the bull market in the financial market may be cautious. However, under the background of the comprehensive advancement of the registration system, the support of a continuous bull market environment is required. Therefore, from a policy perspective, I do not want the stock market to see a trend of ups and downs. It is more likely that I hope that A shares will go out of 2016 to 2017. Slow Bull Quotes of the Year.