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Wang Jinyao 6.16 Today’s gold and crude oil market is going up or down, a guide for precious metal commodities investment



=====Spot gold market trend analysis=====

On Tuesday (June 15), international gold prices are expected to stabilize, ending the previous two consecutive days of decline, as the dollar’s fall has boosted the attractiveness of safe-haven gold. Investors are waiting for the results of the Fed meeting to find new clues to reduce the scale of bond purchases. The strategist said: “Technically speaking, gold has fallen below the key support level and appears to be entering a bearish trend… This means that the market may be ready to withstand the Fed’s gradual reduction in asset purchases.” Investors wait for the Fed’s upcoming announcement on Wednesday. Results of the new policy meeting. According to the survey, nearly 60% of economists said that the Fed will release the highly anticipated debt reduction plan in the next quarter. It is also worth noting that the US May retail sales data will be announced later in the day. Previously released data showed that soaring consumer prices in the United States benefited gold, which is often seen as a tool to hedge against inflation. The price of gold closed down mainly because the market was worried that the Fed would reduce QE ahead of schedule before the Fed’s decision. Some investors began to reduce the long positions they had previously established, which put downward pressure on the gold price in the short term. The rise of Bitcoin has led to a slowdown in the outflow of cryptocurrency funds, which is not conducive to the price of gold.

From a technical point of view, the daily level of gold prices rebounded on Monday, and European and American gold prices suffered a sharp drop, hitting the lowest level since May 17, and they rebounded strongly after hitting 1845, the intersection of the 10-day moving average and crossing the 200-day moving average. , And recovered most of the decline, and finally closed at 1866.16. The daily line recorded a bardo line with a long lower shadow. The MACD and KDJ dead cross signals continued, and the 10-day moving average crossed the 20-day moving average to form a dead cross. The gold price rebound failed to regain the upward trend line of 1873 in early May. There is still a risk of falling again in the short-term. Initial support is concerned about the daily low of 1858.7. This position is also close to the lower track of the Bollinger Band. If it breaks below, the price of gold may once again step on 1845 for confirmation. Support; on the whole, gold prices may currently face the greatest downward pressure since the rebound at the end of March. The future trend will largely depend on the Fed’s statement. Before then, gold bulls are expected to remain weak; however, As the price of gold started a strong rebound after it gained support near 1845, the short-term bearish signal has also weakened. If the price of gold can remain above the lower rail of the Bollinger Band 1860, there is still a chance for the price of gold to counterattack further. First, pay attention to the resistance near 1873. The price of gold needs to stabilize this position to effectively reverse the current weakness. Further resistance is near 1888. This position is at the same time the middle of the Bollinger Band and the 10-day moving average. If it breaks through, the price of gold will have the opportunity to hit the 1900 mark again. On the whole, today’s short-term operation thinking Wang Jinyao suggests to rebound from the high altitude, supplemented by the callback low and more. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 1878-1883, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 1845-1850.

===== International crude oil market trend analysis=====

On Tuesday (June 15), international oil prices rose and are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive trading day. With the delay in negotiations for the United States to rejoin the Iran nuclear agreement, the prospect of Iran’s provision of additional supplies to the market soon fades away. The United States and Iran, as well as other parties to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, resumed indirect discussions in Vienna last Saturday (June 12). The return of the United States to the agreement will pave the way for the lifting of sanctions on Iran, which will enable the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member states to resume crude oil exports. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and major oil-producing countries (OPEC+) including Russia have been reducing production to support oil prices. ING said: “Additional supply from OPEC+ will be needed in the second half of this year, as demand is expected to continue to recover.” Encouraged by the obvious signs of rapid global economic recovery and continued reductions in production by US shale oil producers, hedge funds took long positions in oil last week. Raise to pre-pandemic levels. Analysts said: “The technical indicators on the daily chart currently show that crude oil is in the overbought zone and may be pulled back.” He said that investors and traders are also paying attention to the results of the two-day Fed meeting that began late Tuesday. , In order to find the signal when to start reducing monetary stimulus. Three sources familiar with the situation said that under pressure from labor unions and including U.S. senators from his hometown of Delaware, the Biden administration is considering how to reduce the burden of biofuel blending on U.S. refineries.

From a technical point of view, from a daily perspective, crude oil relied on the MA5 daily moving average to rise on the next day, and then fell back slightly after setting a new high during the intraday session. A small sun with a shadow line was recorded, the Bollinger band opened up, and the oil price was running at the upper middle. Track, moving average and long positions are arranged, operating below the oil price to form support, the support below focuses on the opening level of this week, and then the moving average horizontal support. From a 4-hour perspective, crude oil showed a slow upward trend the next day, and then fell back after a short puncture on the upper track. It held high and sideways. The Bollinger Bands are currently in an open period. After the MA moving average is arranged in a long position, the MA 5-10 daily moving average Moving forward, the KDJ stochastic indicator hooks upward in three lines, the MACD indicator diverges, and the fast and slow lines move forward in parallel. On the whole, crude oil is currently insufficient to rise in the short term, or it will rise after a wave of retracements. On the whole, today’s short-term operation thinking Wang Jinyao suggested to call back low and high, supplemented by rebound high altitude, the top short-term focus on the 72.5-73 resistance, the bottom short-term focus on the 68.5-69 first-line support.